Amare Deal Hinges on Contract Extension - Why He'd Be Crazy Not to Sign One
by Clarkcent on Jul 9, 2009 11:08 AM PDT
Email
PrintFor what feels like an eternity (since the evening of the NBA draft June 25th, to be exact) Warriors fans have been jerked back and forth on a potential Amare Stoudemire trade deal with the Suns. As of today the deal has yet to gain legs, but many believe it's still on the table. What's taking so long, you ask? Some have argued that the deal fell through because Coach Don Nelson and the Warriors front office backed out on including Stephen Curry at the last moment. This theory, however, assumes that the Warriors were ready to make the deal even if Stoudemire declined to sign a contract extension. This is a HUGE assumption, and in my opinion disproves the above theory. 
via www.nba.com
The importance of Amare's willingness to sign an extension should not be understated:
The Warriors would have to be FOOLS to pull the trigger on a trade that sends Brandon Wright and Andris Biedrins packing without securing the returned player beyond the end of this season. The notion that they would be willing to forgo this assurance is outright ludicrous.
So what's the holdup? Why hasn't Amare agreed to a contract extension? This is where it gets interesting. Amare has been quoted as saying "If I have to re-sign with a mediocre team, it will be here (with the Suns)", implying that he considers the Warriors to be a "mediocre team" despite the potential winning power of an Ellis-Curry backcourt tandem and a solid all-around roster that includes an emerging talent in Anthony Randolph and a tough veteran in Stephen Jackson. So, as it stands, Amare refuses to sign an extension if it means playing with the Warriors for the next 5-6 years. This much we know. The part I'm unclear on, and that has yet to be resolved, is what exactly Stoudemire THINKS his alternatives appear to be. In other words, WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE FOR YOU, AMARE?
The answer to that question can probably be summed up in three words: PROBABLY NOT MUCH! At this point, we can probably assume that Warriors would be willing to extend Amare to a 6-year max-contract somewhere in the ball park of $100 to $120 million. Maybe not, but probably. There are very few teams in the league (other than the Warriors) that would be willing to sign such an extension (his current team being one of the many unwilling). However, if Amare were willing to sign that contract today (and consummate a trade with the Warriors) he would be guaranteeing himself a handsome income for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, if he waits until next offseason to get a new contract he could find himself waiting around for a big offer, and THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT CONTRACT WOULD FALL SHORT OF WHAT HE CAN GET RIGHT NOW!
Mixed up in this whole drama is the fact that Stoudemire's current contract ends just before the famed free-agency Summer of 2010. What seems to elude Stoudemire is the logical assumption that the Salary Cap is due to fall dramatically at the same time the free-agency market is flooded with unprecidented talent. There will be a list of at least 5 names bigger than Amare's vying to grab the big dollars (LeBron, Wade, Bosh...), and he could end up waiting around for someone to come calling with a satisfactory offer. Thus, two things could happen:
1) He may end up having to take less money in a new long term contract, as many teams will be unwilling (or simply unable) to sign him to a max contract becasue of the lowered cap. We've already seen this happen so far this offseason, as the previous trend toward overpaying free-agents has dipped dramatically (i.e. Allen Iverson is about to sign for 25% or less than the amount he was paid last year!).
2) He may have to settle for signing with a "mediocre team" anyway. If the market works out unfavorably, the only teams with the cap space to sign him may be even more desperate (and unattractive) than the Warriors. In fact, I would assume that this is quite likely.
So, to sum things up, Amare's best chance to sign the biggest contract with the best team possible may very well be with the Warriors, right now! His alternative will almost certainly have to be the "wait-and-see" method, which could end up being a "wait-and-see-what-a-huge-mistake-I've-made" kind of decision. Whether or not you want to see this trade happen, I think it's safe to say that the ball is in Amare's court, and, whether he recognizes it or not, this one is a slam dunk
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
57 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A lot of teams are looking to spend big next summer – think if the Knicks miss out on Wade AND Lebron after all their payroll dumping.
“There will be a list of at least 5 names bigger than Amare’s vying to grab the big dollars”
I don’t know everyone who’s going to be a FA, but off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone bigger than Amare that you haven’t named. If Lebron + Wade resign with their teams, that leaves the Knicks ($$$) and possibly Detroit and other teams to throw money at Bosh + Amare. He could be looking at choices including huge payday, choosing a good team to go to if he cares about winning, or some combination of the two. I can see why he’d turn down an extension from the worst franchise in the NBA for that opportunity.
Rebuttal
Excellent points, but I still think he’s not on the list of the top 5 most desirable players to sign.
Perhaps 5 “bigger” names was a poor choice of words, but there are more than 5 guys who are more attractive free agents to most teams that will require big buck. I would say that Bosh is clearly more desireable to teams (no injuries, younger, better attitude), and there are lost of other guys who might take priority over him in the eyes of prospective suitors (Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Shaq, Camby, McGrady, Ginobli, Rip Hamilton, Redd, Boozer, Nash). even if some of those guys wouldn’t demand as much money, they still make huge dents in cap space.
The Knicks may be the only example of a team that would/could have the means and the desire to sign him, but even still, if I were a player who wants to join the best team possible with lots of potential (as Amare has claimed) I would much rather play for the Warriors than the Knicks.
Don't forget Yao
Even though his career might be in jeopardy. If he’s healthy, he’s definitely “Top 5” material.
Confident Marco Belinelli supporter
by Doctor Kajita on Jul 9, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I suspect he’s one of the 4 most desirable players. Johnson might fool someone (he’s not close to the same league as Stoudemire as a player, but some people seem to think he’s elite), but Allen, Shaq, Camby, McGrady, Ginobli, Hamilton and Nash are all much, much older. They’re the sort of players who in their next contracts will be offered short deals by contenders. As foolish as some GMs are, they do tend to notice when they’ve got a 27 year old superstar vs. a 34 year old superstar in their sights for big money. Redd is as good, and Boozer has similar issues. Maybe they can be had cheaper and that might take someone out of the running, but they’re not more valuable players.
by jae on Jul 9, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Name Power
For pure “name” power, I would of course say that Yao (player option that, lets face it, has almost no chance of being exercised) Nash, Nowitzki, Pierce, Shaq, McGrady, Allen and Ginobli are all bigger than Stoudemire. Debatable, but probably all of them at least rival or surpass him in notoriety. Then again, Iverson was the biggest name in this year’s free agent class so…..
But again, there are other that might be more likely to get an offer first, even if they are (and never were) worth a MAX offer.
Don’t get me wrong here, BTW, I think Stoudemire is a better player to sign than a lot of these other guys, especially considering age. That’s why I’m in favor of the trade and rooting for it big time. Nonetheless, I think the point to grasp here is that Amare may not be first in line (nor 10th in line) to collect his money in the summer of 2010, and that could hurt his bottom line.
All of those names are on the wrong side of 30, some of them on the wrong side of 35. Stoudemire gets a long term max before anyone on that list unless a cohort of GMs goes stark raving insane. The lack of a max contract to Iverson should be something of an indicator. You don’t break the bank for a guy whose days are short. “Especially given age” seems to indicate that age isn’t among the chief concerns. It should be.
I would be very, very surprised if Stoudemire is 10th in line for a large contract. I’d be surprised if he’s 5th. There just aren’t that many players who are better than him and still in their prime who are on the market.
by jae on Jul 9, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Don’t forget Dirk! He’s up there in years but his game is mostly perimeter and not based on athleticism so he should age gracefully. And I’m pretty sure he’s a FA in this offseason as well.
Amar’e’s options are definitely getting limited… the past two weeks have hurt his chances of getting the max elsewhere. How limited are his chances, exactly?
Let’s walk through every NBA team and try to find another place where Amar’e could get the max. For Amar’e’s sake, we’ll go from least mediocre to most, by regular season record.
1. Cavs – no realistic way they can give him big money. They’ve spent all their chips.
2. Lakers – no way. They’d take him, sure, but they’re not giving him the max.
3. Celtics – completely capped out. They’d need to acquire him in trade, and they don’t fit the Suns’ needs.
4. Magic – no financial flexibility, no place to put him. Lewis at the 4 works for them.
5. Nuggets – no financial flexibility, plus they don’t have the right pieces for the Suns.
6. Spurs – no room to sign him, no chips to get him with. He doesn’t seem like their type, either.
7. Blazers – it’s hard to entirely rule them out of any sweepstakes, but they don’t have room for this guy.
8. Rockets – they’ll have the money, but I’m guessing Darryl Morey doesn’t want Amar’e.
9. Mavs – they’ve spent their wad, and they’re committed to Dirk.
10. Hornets – can’t even afford the guys they have, let alone a pricey newcomer.
11. Jazz – maybe, if they let Boozer walk AND trade Kirilenko for expirings. Not a likely combo.
12. Hawks – a reasonable fit, if their offering Josh Smith is true. They could theoretically give Amar’e the max.
13. Suns – they’re certainly not sounding keen on the idea of extending the guy.
14. Heat – would probably love him. Is there a Beasley+expirings package they could offer the Suns?
15. Sixers – they have their pricey power forward, for better or worse.
16. Bulls – will have serious cap room with Gordon’s departure. Could use a four. Strong possibility.
17. Pistons – blew all their cap room on Gordon and Villanueva. Not a ‘10 player anymore.
18. Pacers – pathetically enough, they’re capped out till 2011. Not an option.
19. Bobcats – another team that’s spent a lot for a little. They don’t have the room, nor the pieces.
20. Nets – will have loads of cap room, and a strong need for a 4. Good potential fit for Amar’e.
21. Bucks – big money troubles. Can’t see a fit here.
22. Raptors – it’d require a Bosh/Amar’e double sign-and-trade, which is pretty hard to imagine.
23. Knicks – strong possibility, IF they don’t re-sign Lee to a multi-year deal. If they do, kind of a longshot.
24. Warriors – obviously, a strong possibility.
25. Wolves – all they have are power forwards who don’t defend. No fit.
26. Grizzlies – terrified of spending money, bizarrely just traded for Zach Randolph.
27. Thunder – could be a GREAT fit. They have the space and the need… exciting young team.
28. Clippers – with Blake Griffin aboard, they’re not hunting for Amar’es.
29. Wizards – committed to a veteran core with no room for Amar’e.
30. Kings – no money.
Of the thirty teams, I count seven possible fits: the Hawks, the Heat, the Bulls, the Nets, the Knicks, the Warriors and the Thunder. I think we’d be ahead of the Hawks, just because they could only max him by trading for him first, and a Biedrins+Wright package is (or at least should be) more attractive than a Josh Smith package. Any of the other five teams, though, could appeal to Amar’e more than us. If it’s a cool city he’s looking for, he could play in Miami, Chicago or New York… if it’s a young team with upside he wants, I’d think the Thunder would strike him as more attractive than the Dubs. So in some ways, you’d have to say he’s better off heading to free agency.
On the other hand, we can offer him certainty now. The Heat can only get him, for instance, if they’re willing to spend a ton and if Phoenix likes Beasley. The Knicks can’t really prioritize him if they hang on to David Lee… you can’t spend all your money on two big men who don’t defend. The Bulls and Nets may have other plans; the Thunder may have their sights set on other pieces. Amar’e is a guy with warts, after all, and with so many other appealing free agents out there, he can’t be assured of getting the max anywhere next summer, let alone with a franchise he likes. If he’s down, though, he could probably have a max extension with us by the end of the month.
It sort of comes down to what he prioritizes. If he really wants a good team and a good situation above all, there’s no particular reason for him to come here. But if he wants a max contract above all, he should probably give the Warriors the okay. Hoping for a max deal in the summer of ’10 is too dicey of a proposition.
by onlxn on Jul 9, 2009 11:54 AM PDT reply actions 8 recs
Are those trade destinations or next year FA destinations?
by Missing Barry on Jul 9, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Both. A couple teams (Nets, Thunder, Knicks) might try to sign him; a couple (Bulls, Heat, Hawks, us) might try to trade for him; the vast majority of teams won’t do either.
If neither Lebron nor Wade sign with them, though, who else are they going to throw all that money at?
by Missing Barry on Jul 9, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Potentially. Bosh and Amare would be the next two on the list, I imagine, though I don’t know what order they’d be in…
by Missing Barry on Jul 9, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree. Amare did not run him out of town
but was a big factor in why he left.
Cause Havoc. Bring Nash in and 120 point games will be very expected
by monta.da.boss on Jul 9, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It sort of comes down to what he prioritizes. If he really wants a good team and a good situation above all, there’s no particular reason for him to come here. But if he wants a max contract above all, he should probably give the Warriors the okay. Hoping for a max deal in the summer of ’10 is too dicey of a proposition.
Based on his recent quotes, I’m just not sure what he wants. Or better yet, I’m not sure what he THINKS the alternative is going to be. I really convinced that he’ll make a big splash in next summer’s free agency pool?
Well, based on Suns fans comments, forming an opinion based on anything Amare has to say is a waste of time…
by Missing Barry on Jul 9, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I’d give you a +1, but “At-mom” says I’m not allowed to do that anymore.
Thing A
by sam23 on Jul 9, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I got warned for throwing up a +1 in another thread, apparently we can only rec now even though I don’t really view the two as equal. I often +1 and rec a post but I use +1 to express agreement and I’ve rec’d several posts and threads I didn’t necessarily agree with but expressed an argument very well and was just something I felt others should definitely read. I I know I’ll probably get another warning because “this isn’t the place or the way to complain about site rules” but it was something I felt should be pointed out and perhaps even discussed. I know Atma and co. are trying to clean the place up and would like to see a little more thought and quality effort put into every post and Atma in particular has been taking a little too much flak around here lately, but it also feels like like the GSoM crew might be flexing their muscle just to flex it a little bit lately. Having them tell everyone the way they can or cannot express their approval or agreement because there have been a lot of low-quality posts feels a little bit like the government controlling your medical treatments.
Thing A
by sam23 on Jul 9, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Considering the rapid-fire nature of SN threads, I don’t see why having some “clutter” in them is a big deal. A much, much, much, much, much x100 bigger problem IMO is the fact that there are like 25 Stoudemire threads. I don’t even read them anymore because they give me a headache.
That’s right, fellow posters: your opinion is not unique enough to merit its own fanpost. Just post in another Amare thread that has a similar title. Thank you.
Thing C
Wow...
I’m surprised by that. I don’t see anything wrong with throwing up a +1 to show that you agree in a quick, concise and polite way. I don’t see that as a problem at all. Like you pointed out there is definitely a distinction between rec’ing a post and publicly stating that you agree and support a comment with +1.
I totally appreciate what Atma and co. have been doing lately to keep the quality of comments high, but I think eliminating all of the more “casual” posts would be a mistake and do a lot to hurt the fun factor around here.
BTW, +1 and Rec!!
Thing 2
i am offended by "+1".
it frightens and confuses me. that goes for all those IMO/IMHO/HMO/PPO’s too. i don"t know where the internet nerd speak stops and the financial dweeb talk starts…
introducing the teensey-tiniest, itty-bitty backcourt in nba history: monta ellis and brandon jennings! 80-win season here we come!
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Jul 12, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
CAN WE GET...
Beasley? Beasley is a Beasty!!!
Geeez Louf*ckingweeez!!!
by scottiepimppen on Jul 9, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Get Creative:
Make a contract that gives him an out in two years if he’s not happy, we get him for two years to see if we can build a winner.
Maybe new ownership will take over by then and change the whole culture.
We would have to have a list of teams he would be willing to go to, and we would have make the trade for the best deal in say six teams or seven teams, we can make a few stipulations, such as his health at the time of the trade and either draft picks plus players or contract value for value.
Someone smarter than me should be able to figure that one out.
I like it!
The idea of an early Player termination option seems like a good way to lure him, and I like it. The only problem is that he would then have the fate of the franchise wrapped around his enormously fickle fingers.
Two problems:
First of all, there are limits on player options in the CBA. After several disasters in the league (including our own with Chris Webber) the owners got this sort of thing rules out of the CBA. I believe you can have ONE player option year at the end of a contract, and that’s it.
Second, given how these escape clauses have worked out for teams in the past, why on earth would we want to give him one if we could? It’s the worst of both worlds for the Warriors:
If Amare succeeds here, we have to reup him to a max contract in two years, putitng the end of the contract firmly into “seriously declining performance” territory compared to where it would be if we signed him for max money now.
If we don’t succeed, we can’t use Amare as a building chip, because he’ll walk for nothing.
The coach loses any possible leverage over the player, who becomes even more uncoachable (see Davis, Baron.) It’s not just about winning, but it’s about winning and keeping him happy, with a huge sword hanging over our heads.
If Amare is on the tail end of his career, we’ve overpaid for nothing – we get all the risk of a long-term contract with none of the upside!
What on earth is the upside for the Warriors? That we might get two years of a player who only came here because we gave him
Amare is a very good player, who will probably improve this team (particularly if we can do something else to improve our rebounding, eg Drew Gooden). But he’s not so good that he’s worth selling out the future of the team for. Either he commits to coming here, and wanting to be here … or we’re better off without him.
by Ronaldinho on Jul 9, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Creative contracts have been done away with in the most recent CBA. An option after year two would mean only one more year on the deal Early terminations (somewhat different from player options) can have two years remaining if not picked up, but they can’t occur until year 4 of a deal. No-trade clauses are almost impossible to obtain presently. Stoudemire isn’t eligible for one, and a deal with an agreement to trade him to another team is also not permissible.
Someone smarter figured out that such loopholes would be ripe for abuse and closed them.
by jae on Jul 9, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Awesome Breakdown!
Well done onlxn! That’s a pretty well thought out breakdown of potential suitors. I have a few arguments against some of the teams you mentioned.
First, the Heat and Nets seem unlikely to be interested through trade, simply because of what it means to their chances int he 2010 Wade-LeBron sweepstakes. As you mentioned, the nets are more of a FA suitor, but they have other guys as their top priorities (LBJ, of course). And the heat, as you say are unlikely to wait, but I would suggest they are equally unlikely to nab him through a trade. By signing him to a max, they run the risk of limiting their chances are retaining Wade. Also, I don’t thinki they’re quite ready to give up on Beasley, simply because he’s only played one year and is much cheaper.
As for the knicks, they’re a FA suitor (much like the nets across the river) but seem to me to be an inferior team potential-wise to the warriors. Very appealing city to play in, but he’s also not their top choice (nor their second or third). Plus that whole D’Antoni connection, not sure if it’s a bonus or a hindrance.
The Bulls are a mystery to me, and could be a good trade partner, but I have no idea who they would offer and whether or not they are willing to shift their core like that. i think that if the bulls were a potential trade partner, we’d know about it by now.
Good Stuff!!!
To clear some things up, if he’s traded to the Warriors, we can offer him an extension immediately (probably negotiated as part of the trade), but it’s limited to a 5 year deal including those years still on his contract, or 4 beyond next season. If he waits and opts out, the Suns can sign him for 6 years (either to keep or part of sign-and-trade) with the same raises or another team can give him 5 years with slightly smaller raises. It’s gamble that in a year, someone will still be willing to give him a max contract, but if he does, he’ll another year of guaranteed max money, or, if Phoenix stays in the picture, 2 more years. Given that the next contract he’ll sign in either case is one that will happen when he’s in his 30s, it’s not a give that 5 years from now he’d be able to match that sort of money.
In other words, WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE FOR YOU, AMARE?
His options:
1. negotiate an extension now that will pay him through the 2013/2014 season at his current salary increasing by 10.5% of the base each year, as either part of a deal to stay in Phoenix or as part of a deal that trades him somewhere else.
2. opt out in a year and look for a max offer of:
2a. 5 years with 8% raises on the base year based on a minimum of his current (09/10) salary plus 5 with another team able to give him a max deal, the deal expiring in 14/15
2b. 6 years with 10.5 raises on the base year based on a minimum of his current (09/10) salary plus 5 either staying with Phoenix if they want to keep him at max money or as part of a sign-and-trade at that point to have a contract expiring in 15/16.
3. Not opt out and collect his current max money (which would be at least 5 lower than a re-negotiated max, but probably only 5% lower given the unlikely event of the cap jumping up $8mil next year) for another year and look for a max deal (5 or 6 years) at that point when he’ll be 28 and some sucker might still think a contract that takes him to 34 would be worth while.
Several teams will have enough cap space to sign him in a year. He doesn’t need to re-up now. Depending on who actually opts out, the Hawks, Bulls, Cavs (if Lebron leaves), Dallas, Houston, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, OKC, Portland, Sacramento and possibly Utah could have enough cap space to open up a max offer to him. No, not all of these teams will make the decisions to do this, but that’s enough to suggest that he’ll get a big offer in a year, even if you figure Lebron, Wade and Bosh are going to be on the market at the same time.
There will be a list of at least 5 names bigger than Amare’s vying to grab the big dollars (LeBron, Wade, Bosh…)
That’s three names, the same three I came up with. Who are the other two to make up the “at least”? There will be some older guys (Nash, Nowitzki) but I can’t really see anyone other than those three who is clearly ahead of Stoudemire in line for big bucks.
by jae on Jul 9, 2009 2:05 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
See Above
To answer your second question, as I said above (second post, titled “rebuttal”) the word “bigger” was probably not the right one. Better put, I would say he’s not in the top 5 most “attractive” players to sign for their going rate. The list of players who might be considered to put a dent in cap space prior to signing Amare include but are not limited to:
Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Shaq, Camby, McGrady, Ginobli, Rip Hamilton, Redd, Boozer, and Nash.
I would include Nash, Johnson and Boozer as guys that are perhaps viewed as being as valuable to a team. Once a team signs one of those (or many other) names, the chance that they could then afford to sign Amare to a max contract drops dramatically. True, someone could still sign him, but perhaps at a slightly lower rate. I think that’s the crux of my whole argument. Also, teams will be far less likely, in general, to sign anyone to a “max” contract if in fact the salary caps drops even more next season (as the NBA stated it probably will).
Perhaps I should include a link to the articles that came out yesterday on the topic, but there is speculation that the cap could get close to $50 million, making it VERY tough for teams to stomach a max contract on anyone (and I mean ANYONE) not name James, Wade, Bosh or maybe Nowitzki.
In response to your first argument about his “options”, what’s the rule on the Suns signing him to the 6-year extension (09-10 plus 5 years) and then completing the trade? Is this legal? In other words, could the Suns excercise their right to give him an extension with the bonus year, and then deal him immediately? This is the scenario I was envisioning.
The extension cannot be for 09-10 plus 5 years. An extension can only be for 5 years including any years on the contract. It doesn’t matter if the Suns do it before a trade or a team acquiring him does it upon completion of a trade. It’s still not possible to cheat the 5 years.
I guess I just don’t see Hamilton or Nowitzki at 32, Ginobili or Pierce at 33, Allen at 34, Nash and Camby at 36, or Shaq at 38 or a chronic-injured McGrady at 31 (the ages they’d be in the first year of a new deal after signing a new contract next year) being the sort of investment that makes one of the absolute elite scorers in the game drop to 10th on the wish list. I don’t see Redd at 31 getting a big deal when Amare is a possibility either. And if it comes down to Stoudemire vs Boozer or Joe Johnson, I certainly hope another team is stupid enough to value them so highly as to toss money foolishly at either of those guys first. Stoudemire’s the youngest of the bunch and has played better than many of the guys on the list ever did.
The cap is not likely to fall to $50 mil, and it may make things tighter. The “$53 mil cap” was false. It dropped by a million and revenue projections make it look like it could drop perhaps $2mil next year. That’s still about what the cap was two years ago.
by jae on Jul 9, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the clarification
Okay, I’m pretty clear now on the extension logistics. I see why you think he’s a safe bet to get his money in free agency and why he would feel enticed to wait. Nonetheless, I still think he’ll end up regretting this decision. Signing with the warriors will have been his best option, and he’ll realize it next summer when he signs a non-max contract with an inferior team.
Several teams will have enough cap space to sign him in a year. He doesn’t need to re-up now. Depending on who actually opts out, the Hawks, Bulls, Cavs (if Lebron leaves), Dallas, Houston, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, OKC, Portland, Sacramento and possibly Utah could have enough cap space to open up a max offer to him. No, not all of these teams will make the decisions to do this, but that’s enough to suggest that he’ll get a big offer in a year, even if you figure Lebron, Wade and Bosh are going to be on the market at the same time.
I’d think so. My guess is that Lebron and Wade both stay, which would eliminate Cleveland but, IIRC, still leave Miami with enough space to make a max offer. I’m starting to think Amar’e’s goal is to get a max deal from the Heat next summer. He’s a Florida native, and he’d be playing alongside D-Wade for years to come, in one of the most attractive cities to NBA players. As you say, some of the teams on this list can’t be considered serious players, but he has a reasonable expectation of getting a max deal.
It’s basically a risk vs. reward propostion… is it worth locking a max deal in now at the expense of losing a year or two off the back end? There are valid arguments either way. Amar’e is coming off an injury, and also had his weakest season in a couple years, with his rebounding and shot-blocking numbers dipping. If those are indicative of a loss of athleticism, and he’d have an even worse season next year, he might risk putting himself below max level, which means signing with us right now is the right move for him. (Of course, that’d also mean it’s a potential disaster for us.) If he’s confident that he’s going to be healthy this year, and produce at a level that will get him a max deal — and I’d think any remotely good season would do that, given the reputation he’s already developed — he should wait. Amar’e certainly doesn’t seem to be a guy who lacks for confidence, so I’m guessing he waits.
The under-discussion Boozer trade could help our chances a bit. If that trade goes through, the Jazz will keep Millsap, which would pretty much knock them out of the running. Boozer could just be a one-year rental for the Bulls, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they extended him quickly… that’d knock them out too. The Blazers would still have room even with Hinrich’s contract, but they have to extend both Roy and Aldridge next summer, so they might not involve themselves. Those of us who want Amar’e should root for that trade going through… the more chips fall, the more Amar’e has to consider going for certainty now.
But yeah, if I had to guess, he’s on the Heat next year, and a new Eastern power is born.
by onlxn on Jul 9, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Andris and Monta for Nash and Amare
haha
Its time for a change...
by RunNdGun on Jul 9, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions
Amar'e wants to play PF
if we could keep Biedrins, Ellis, Jackson, Curry and either BWright or AR he would come. He thinks we’re giving up too much for him. He wants to play next to a center not as a center. He basically would start in the Warriors frontcourt if Andris was here, he doesn’t want to play 82 games next to AR at center, he knows his body can’t hang at center anymore.
This may be the case, but a trade needs to be agreed on both sides, and if we were able to keep all those players and offer the Suns whatever else like Maggette Belinelli Wright and Azubuike or something, they would just laugh in our faces and turn us down. We NEED to include Biedrins in this trade if the Suns will accept the trade. Nothing more, nothing less.
WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...
Interesting...
I hope Amar’e doesn’t have many other options. But I have a qualm about the fanpost. I think Morrow will start and it might be tough for Curry to take his spot!!
"If I have to re-sign with a mediocre team, it will be here (with the Suns)"
Funny, but I thought the Suns don’t want to extend his contract. So it’s not really in his control to re-sign w/ a mediocre team, when that mediocre team…his own team…doesn’t want him! That’s what I’m unclear about!
I think when all is said and done, he’s going to go where the money is! Even if he went to a “contender”, it’s not for sure that whichever team that is will win the championship! Look at the Lakers! It took them two years since acquiring Gasol, and even then, the team that may have had the best chance at beating them again, the Boston Celtics, weren’t 100%. I think if KG played, Boston would have been in the Finals again and would have given the Lakers a run for their money!
I don’t like everything I’m hearing from Stoudemire, but I think if he gets the money he’s looking for, he’ll play for us!
Geeez Louf*ckingweeez!!!
“I think when all is said and done, he’s going to go where the money is!”
I think you hit the nail on the head…
by Missing Barry on Jul 9, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Go listen to his words I believe he said something different
I thought he said. if I have to sign with a mediocre team, It will be with a team that has a future. The way I heard I thought he was hinting he wanted to come to us.
Also when I listened to the interview he said that there wasn’t anything solid about a trade yet and then he said that he wants to know whats going to happen because he wants stability for his kids.
I hoping he is pushing the suns do finish this waiting process. I bet he will be a s and t for us but I think that Kerr is taking his time to make sure he is getting best deal for Amare. He needs to make sure he doesn’t look bad after all this. Im sure he is feeling the pressure.
Boozer to Bulls Rumor - Changes Things?
If in fact Boozer gets moved to Chicago, doesn’t that change things for the Warriors and Amare? On the one hand, it removes some pressure from the Suns, who might have taken Boozer-to-Warriors rumors as a sign that they need to get the amare trade with the warriors done. On the other hand, it removes the possibility of trading with the bulls, who seemed to be the next best option to make a deal behind the Warriors.
Screw Amare!!!!
if he doesnt want to sign with us because we are mediocre and is unwilling to sign an extension, then to hell with it. I dont want a guy to play on our team that wont be happy or has some preconceived notions about our team. Let him re-sign with the suns, they will be trash next year. I like beans anyway!
With the cap falling, it's going to be increasingly difficult for almost any FA
to sign a max contract. Short of Dwayne Wade & Lebron James, who’s going to be willing to commit $20+M annually when the cap is set to drop to $50M in 2 seasons?
Just throwing it out there, but if Amar’e feels he’s worth $20M now (after the cap drop), and Phoenix wasn’t willing to give that to him, they sure as hell aren’t giving it to him now. I’ll say they offer him something similar to what he’s making now. $16-$18M annually.
What does that mean for us? Absolutely nothing. He doesn’t want to play for us. He’d rather play in Phoenix.
If he doesn’t extend in Phoenix, I don’t see him opting out next offseason unless he absolutely demolishes the nba this year and becomes a top 5 player. Why? We’re talking about a guy, who if he doesn’t stand out…will be a perennial all-star with knee surgeries including one microfracture, a detached retina which needed repair, and a true primadonna attitude hitting the open market with the likes of Wade, Bron, Bosh, etc.
Cap falling + Influx of great star/superstar FA’s + Average season for an all-star = Exercising his option and staying in Phoenix for one more year. (That is unless someone is willing to commit 40% of their salary cap to him)
Time to move on. Deal is DEAD. Congratulations to all those who wanted to watch Brandan Wright put on 30 pounds and become Josh Smith. Congratulations to all those who wanted to watch Marco Belinelli magically able to run the PG position and become one of the best shooters in the league. Time to get pumped. Get ready for a 38 win season.
Golden State Warriors….where NBA Champions happen.
of the Las Vegas Summer League.
Congratulations to all those who wanted to watch Brandan Wright put on 30 pounds and become Josh Smith
So like, an extra 30 pounds would make him a worse rebounder, less comfortable playing in the paint, much less efficient from the floor, and increase his salary fourfold?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Jul 11, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
when the cap is set to drop to $50M in 2 seasons?
There’s not really an indication that the cap will drop that low. Possible? Sure, but that number is far below the pessimistic expectation. That number showed up in the false report of a $53mil cap, something that was just not true. Further, if it does drop, he cannot get a $20mil starting salary as the max is set as a percentage of the total cap. If the cap goes down, he can’t be offered anything substantially different from what he’s making now. It has nothing to do with what he wants or what anyone feels he’s worth. It has everything to do with the rules.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!"
Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)
Related FanPosts on Golden State Of Mind
Related FanShots on Golden State Of Mind
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Most Commented
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
- The Facebook campaign to hire Will Ferrell for All-Star Game player intros is underway
- Video: Meet the infamous bearded guy that goes nuts by the 76ers’ bench
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
