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Berri: Unconventional lineups may have cost the Warrors wins (Tell us something we didn't know!)

Dr. Dave Berri (So. Utah University economics professor and co-author on the highly intriguing application of economic theory to sports The Wages of Wins) has turned his attention on our beloved Warriors this week.  In his blog, the "Wages of Wins Journal", the good doctor asks the same question many of us asked for much of the season: why did Nelson so often go with a small ball lineup and did his reliance on small ball cost the Warriors wins?

Star-divide

Berri:  "Given two lottery picks at power forward, it was not surprising to see the Warriors play at this position in 2008-09… Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson? [Anthony] Randolph and [Brandan] Wright only played a combined 1,817 minutes last season.  In their place, Don Nelson – head coach of the Warriors – turned to two players who are generally considered a small forward or a shooting guard."

Of course, just about the time Wright started getting regular minutes, Wright went down with with injury and as Randolph came on as a productive power forward rebounding machine, emerging the hollow small-forward turnover machine that started the season, Biedrins went down with injury as well.  So perhaps some of the minute discrepancy isn't all attributable to Nellie's decision to use Maggs and Jax as his 'big' forwards.  Some of it was simply playing the hand dealt.  Still, the relative high efficient production out of both Randolph and Wright vs the much more pedestrian production (read: lousy on the glass and/or poor shooting from the floor) of the wings masquerading as post players is enough to make one pause.  Berri himself suggests that if the returning players can produce as well as they did last year (or, in Monta's case, the year before when he wasn't injured for 75% of the season), a conventional rotation with Ronny, Andris, Brandan and Anthony R. getting the vast majority of the minutes up front could result in a much different outcome for the 2009-2010 season.

Berri:  "If each starter plays 32 minutes per night, and each reserve plays the remaining 16 (yes, I am guessing), then the Warriors would be expected to win more than 50 games next season.  In sum, if Ellis returns to his 2007-08 form, and Nelson learns to respect NBA tradition, this team can improve 20 games in the standings..."

Also in the article: ESPN stathead John Hollinger also attributes some of the Warrior woes to the small-ball tendencies of Nellie.  Can these two both be right?  Can the second winningest coach of all time really be shooting himself in the foot with a stubborn devotion to the unconventional?

Poll
Given Berri's assessment of our young PF's productivity, can the Warriors really expect great improvements next year?
Yes! With real options to go to in the paint, Nellie will have a winner on his hands.
664 votes
No. There are only three constants in life. Death, taxes, and Don Nelson's stubborn commitment to the unconventional.
450 votes
Are you kidding? Those numbers are pure fantasy. Nellie doesn't play his bigs for a reason. They just aren't that good.
192 votes

1306 votes | Poll has closed

6 recs  |  Comment 73 comments |

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Our biggest weakness last year was defense and getting rebounds. If we actually played REAL PFs at the position and not have Jackson or Maggette or even Azubuike at the 4. I think we could’ve won alot more games than we did. Having Wright and Randolph at the 4 would definitely help us in rebounds and blocks more so than having those 3s playing the 4. Let’s just hope Nellie comes to his sense this year and plays more “traditional” lineups. heh, I doubt it…ya can’t teach an old dog new tricks…

WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...

by JustSomeName on Aug 12, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I sure hope the maggs-at-the-4 experiments are over

Of course, who would you want to be the 3rd 4 – maggs or george? Since we will need a 3rd 4 just because of foul concerns.

Or it might be another undrafted guy wonder?

by mosdl on Aug 12, 2009 5:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

3rd 4: Sampson!

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawkGSW on Aug 12, 2009 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thats what I’m rooting for if another move isnt made

Thing A

by sam23 on Aug 12, 2009 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We’re still working on that. Devean George should not see a minute of playing time this season. He is a terrible basketball player (and not a 4 to begin with). Basically, we need a 5th big, and we should address that at some point this offseason (doesn’t have to be that good, he’ll be #5 in the rotation for 2 spots)…

by Missing Barry on Aug 12, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the problem is...

if we move maggette to 3, put randolph at 4 and jack to 2, monta at 1…. we are painfully clustered team with only 1 guy (jack) who can hit a 3…. spacing is huge for warriors offensively, its a large reason we score so many. This team will never beat other teams 83-82 so why try that style

by tafkasam on Aug 12, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s only one lineup, though, any time Curry, Morrow, or Azubuike, who all figure to get decent minutes are in, it adds to our outside shooting/spacing…

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea..

bukie would start at 3 and maggs is our spark off the bench…

by blacksamurai33 on Aug 13, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our Weakness last year

Is Injury whenever someone becoming productive, he got injured, even Stephen Jack was injured towards the end of the season when he started getting those triple double, double double. Belli Wright, Beans, even Davidson got injured I hope it wont happen this season. If we got a healthy squad all the way the season we have a chance of getting into playoffs. The reason Lakers won the championship because even someone is injured there is someone to cover there place. When Bynum is down they got Gasol when odom was down they got Ariza, But there star player was always there thru out the season.

by mykelala01 on Aug 12, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

No.
There are only three constants in life. Death, taxes, and Don Nelson’s stubborn commitment to the unconventional.

Why would Don Nelson play any defense/rebounding at the PF position when there are so many points we can score and so many superstar veterans we need to give minutes to?! $5 says majority minutes go to this lineup: Curry, Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Biedrins

"We Deserve"

by YaHeard on Aug 12, 2009 5:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

No shot

even Nelson has said that Randolph will be the starting PF. Also, I highly doubt Curry will get any significant playing time. I think it will be one of the following lineups playing the majority of the minutes:

Ellis, Morrow, Jackson, Randolph, Andris
Ellis, Buki, Jackson, Randolph, Andris
Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Randolph, Andris

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawkGSW on Aug 12, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don Nelson: “Dunleavy is a natural 4”

I return to that any time anyone puts too much faith in what he’s said.

by jae on Aug 12, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

So true. But I really do think there is no way he will be able to not give AR starting 4 and significant minutes. Management knows how much the fans like AR and will force Nellie to play him if there is a problem.

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawkGSW on Aug 13, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that the Riley in/Mullin out means that management has far less ability to force Nellie to play anyone.

by jae on Aug 13, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree.

Mullin couldn’t get Nellie to play “his” players like Marcus Williams. We could argue on and on whether Williams was rightfully iced out or not, but it seems to be the case that Nellie is the king of his domain on the hardwood.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure if he'll actually do this but what makes the most sense to me is...

Ellis, Jackson, Buki, Randolf, Andris
with Maggette as sixth man, and Turiaf, Wright, Morrow (and maybe a couple others if things change or someone gets injured) getting serious playing time.

by freerandolph on Aug 13, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

but what about Curry. Those above should get the most PT but i think Curry should be in the Rotation and get some starts here in there depending on matchups or injuries. Curry should be brought along slowly unless he just is great from the get go. I Honestly think we should run a 10 deep rotation and play 2 of AR, AB, RT, or BW at all times

Die Hard Warrior Fan 4 Life!!!
Golden State Warriors
Ellis/Curry
Jackson/Morrow
Azubukie/Maggette
Randolph/Wright
Andris/Turiaf
PlayOffs??
Living 4 a GSW Championship!!!

by GSW9 on Aug 13, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I imagine Curry as specifically and exclusively taking the role of backup PG at the outset (particularly if CJ is gone), then as the season progresses perhaps expanding to play alongside Monta perhaps later on. Until then I agree with freerandolph, unless we make a move.

Monta/Curry
Jax/Morrow
Kaz/Maggs
AR/Wright
Andris/Turiaf

by hardcore on Aug 15, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This team will be much improved simply with health. Last year was a fluke, we’re much better than that. I think 50+ wins is pushing it a bit, though. I was thinking 40-42 would be realistic, 50+ would mean Randolph turned into a stud already….

by Missing Barry on Aug 12, 2009 6:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This

Im pretty on board with this assertion here.

by MO-ped MO-problems on Aug 13, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice to see numbers confirm it.

It is nice to see numbers confirm what I (and, I suspect, many of us) believe regarding the potential strength of this team. It certainly seemed to me that the Warriors played better last year when they went with a more traditional lineup and it would appear to me that the Warriors have a better team than many are giving them credit for.

Last year was a rough year. Dealing with disgruntled players, front office politics, injuries of varying magnitudes to key contributors, and Nelson’s confusing choices regarding playing time made it hard to be a fan (but hard to look away either, if only out of morbid curiosity.) I am hoping the young guys have achieved whatever was necessary to convince Nelson that they can be trusted.

The optimistic view: Nelson wants to win. Playing the young guys more, particularly the young big guys more, looks to be a great recipe for making that happen. Nelson, having been a successful coach for a long time, can likely recognize this as well as any of us. (Riley’s quest for “beef” would seem to indicate a little faith in that concept as well.) Since this season is unlikely to be “lost” from the get-go – which is how Nelson described last season – maybe Nelson won’t spend it focused on trying out player combinations and giving tough love to the young guys.

I’d love to see the Warriors shock the west with 50+ wins (and see us start talking about those wins instead of the front office.)

by toddaverth on Aug 12, 2009 6:25 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

REC.

Great work as always, jae. I feel bad that our recs don’t mean as much now that you’re a mod. This diary should really stay up for a while. Can’t it be moved over to the hoi polloi column to replace the “Don Nelson’s Smile Is More Sincere Than Obama’s” and the “Keith Smart Hates Fetuses” threads?

Anyway, it’s heartening to see Berri and Co. giving us some love. I’m pretty sure I’ve recognized your posts on WoW before, jae (you’re the dude who took the golden fleece, right?); is it just coincidence that they’re now weighing in on the Warriors, or did you help put them up to it?

Their conclusions of course come as no surprise to me (or anyone else on GSoM, I imagine). The more salient questions for me are: (a) is there any chance that this diary or the WoW piece will find its way under Nellie’s and/or Riley’s nose; and (b) if so, is there any chance at all that it will affect the way they construct the rotation?

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 12, 2009 6:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

ps — I’m sure you don’t want to seem like a pedant or a UNC homer in the eyes of Berri, but the next time you post there can you write something along the lines of “it’s BRANDAN, b*tches!!!!” I mean, sheesh, they even got it wrong in their tables!

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 12, 2009 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Berri and I do correspond and I consider him a friend as much as anyone I’ve never actually met can be a friend. Spelling is not his strong suit. He also missed Bryon Russell (going with the easy to miss “Byron” trasposition) in his book too.

This is why we hire editors.

by jae on Aug 12, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I miss Bryon Russell, too… :,-(

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We should shove this article into Nellie's morning newspapers, whiskey and cigars.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I feel bad that our recs don’t mean as much now that you’re a mod. This diary should really stay up for a while. Can’t it be moved over to the hoi polloi column

I know there must a way to do it because I’ve seen it done on other SBN sites (they can appear both on the front page and in the fanpost column). It would definitely be nice for these types of articles so we have more time to develop a discussion.

I’m pretty sure I’ve recognized your posts on WoW before, jae

The compliment/complement joke was a dead giveaway. ; )

BTW, nice work as usual jae.

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Aug 13, 2009 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

simple question

It’s really easy to make these observations when a team loses like we did last year. But being consistent and using the same measurements, how do you explain us making the second round of the playoffs one year, followed by 48 wins? Did we have a PF with a post presence then? Seems like Nellie ball was at the pinnacle of its glory. Did we not play a small lineup? I do not disagree with the need for some beef and more traditional makeup at times, but seems like we are easy prey when we have all our best players injured and have an off year. Jae, explain how this is not the same team that beat Dallas and then won 48 games and why we we were all hugs and We Believe. EveryonelLoved Nellie ball then and now we are in need of a major philosophy change?

by crab dribble cocktail on Aug 12, 2009 8:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Baron was a good player. Berri’s calculations (similar to the ones I use) had him worth about 12 wins in the 48 win season. Monta was worth about the same. Take 24 wins off of the 48, and you’re at 24 wins. Monta played about 30% of a season, or about 4 wins worth, which gets us real close to the actual 29 wins we got. So really, that’s the biggest difference right there. Maggette was supposed to be a replacement for Baron’s production, but in reality, he was more of a push for Barnes and Pietrus.

Small ball, conventional game. Still requires the players to produce. It’s not “small ball” that won, but a team with a productive Baron and Monta, etc.. Losing Baron was a big loss. Losing most of a season of Monta was a big loss. The philosophy change isn’t the issue so much as “play your best players.” Sticking to small ball when Baron becomes Crawford? It isn’t going to work.

by jae on Aug 12, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I imagine defense was a huge difference between the two successful years and last year, two. While Baron & co. didn’t always make a huge commitment to D and often looked bad on the defensive end, what they did do consistently is create a lot of turnovers….

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

“and last year, two”

two? really? Dunno what I was thinking…*too

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re'd the reply.

Thought it was spot on with what I was thinking minus the stats to back it up. JAE what site can I find a statistic similar to baseball’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Or something similar to it?

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Presently, no such site regularly updates this. I’m working on it.

by jae on Aug 13, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

how do you explain us making the second round of the playoffs one year, followed by 48 wins? Did we have a PF with a post presence then?

 Remember? We had Boom who was better than most point guards playing those years, and we had a well rounded team of vets, JRich,SJax, and TMNT all playing at pretty good levels so smallball worked in spite of it’s self.

Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky

by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 12, 2009 9:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep. The playoff team had superior guards.

Last year moving Jack/Magg to PF meant more mins for our sucky guards and less mins for our best PF options. Jack/Magg go from being above avg wings to below avg bigs, the entire team suffers.

by Bob on Aug 12, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

all you say is true except I think we won in spite of TMNT. You also kind of helped me make my point. That small ball can work under the right group of players. We never were healthy or even close to healthy last year so one can not make a proper evaluation on how this team will truly play. In fact I can remember those few nights when we were healthy thinking, damn were a pretty good team and damn fun to watch. Don’t get me wrong I would love to see us add a talented big ugly but with the growth of AR and others, small ball can work again.

by crab dribble cocktail on Aug 12, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That small ball can work under the right group of players.

Indeed… I think we all remember that quite clearly, and fondly, from ’07 and ’08.

But Nellie didn’t have the right group of players last year. Effective smallball is generally going to require an extremely skilled point guard and some backcourt guys who can pick off a good number of passes. Nellie had neither of those things last year. What he did have was a better array of big men than he’d had the previous two seasons. Using those guys, and scrapping a smallball strategy that no longer seemed likely to work, should’ve been a pretty easy choice to make.

by onlxn on Aug 12, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a feeling

that the only way we’ll see a more “conventional” lineup IF Nellie is still our coach is if we can pick up a Center that can shoot the jumpshot, while also a decent rebounder. Andris has been in far too many trade rumors to think he is 100% untouchable on the Warriors. Actually, I think he’s far from it in the eyes of Nelson. I think AB has a higher likelihood of being moved than AR (before I would have said AR). I think the FO realizes that if AR is given the rope-a-dope when it comes to playing time, people will be very disappointed and might stop coming out. But mostly attendance will depend on wins.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can the second winningest coach of all time really be shooting himself in the foot with a stubborn devotion to the unconventional?

Um… yes.

Having said that, I think this will not be a huge issue next year. Nellie got comfortable playing Randolph at the four once Randolph got good, and while I wouldn’t put much stock in his claim that Randolph will be the starting power forward, I do think that’s probably what will happen. If Randolph’s on the floor along with either Biedrins or Turiaf, things should probably be okay.

The real question is what happens when Randolph sits. What should happen is obvious: Wright should play the four that whole time. What will happen is an open question. There are no real indications that Nellie’s changed his thinking about Wright, so I’d expect that we’ll see a mixture of Wright and smallball. But it’s possible that Nellie will turn over a new leaf.

by onlxn on Aug 12, 2009 9:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Randolph’s productivity numbers were an average of the whole season, which includes the junky early months where when he did play, he couldn’t buy a bucket (but seemed to be trying to pay for them with turnovers). In this light, the overall really good numbers actually under represent what he was doing once he started getting more run at the 4. Still, it should be noted that he wasn’t tremendously more productive than Wright. We have two young, promising 4s. Both have flaws, but it really would be a shame to completely waste Wright, who, when he’s played, has played well. We’ll see. Maybe another summer with Roy Williams leaning out of his office to tell Brandan what to do will help. Maybe a summer where the pickup games in the dome are likely to have him matching up against guys who are more talented than your average summer league team will help him.

by jae on Aug 12, 2009 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As you know, I need no convincing about Wright’s merits, and any time we play smallball when he’s sitting and rested, I’ll be pulling my hair out. But I’m trying to be realistic about this. He has played well under Nellie for two years now, and has never gotten a sustained vote of confidence. Unless he shows up this fall with an 18-foot jumper, I think he’s gonna get shafted again.

by onlxn on Aug 12, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

realistically

come november i expect minutes to come out like this….
monta- 40
jack- 40
buike-30
randolph- 22
biedrins- 32
--
curry- 12
morrow- 16
maggette- 32
turiaf- 16

….

i’d liek to see BWright get in the rotation but i doubt he will initially unless we have injuries or he vastly improves his rebounding and/or defensive awareness and shows something in preseason.

middle/end of season might be something else though…

by tafkasam on Aug 12, 2009 9:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The Fickledom of Fandom

How many coaches who played traditional lineups last year were losers? A bunch, I would say. Nellie looked pretty brilliant when the Warriors upset the Mavs and he didn’t look dumb the next year when he won enough games to be in the playoffs but wasn’t. So, in a sense you can say he has had one bad season in three, and this more than a few on this board act like he has taken a valiant franchise and dragged it through the dirt. Maybe the team would have won more games playing a traditional lineup. Maybe it wouldn’t have. The thing is either way it wasn’t going to make the playoffs. It was a bad team who lost its only superstar.

 p(. So, a lot of this is just splitting hairs in hell. Had Nellie been making the draft choices for five or six years, the Dubs would have a better roster and won more games. Had some idiot not got caught with his pants down in the middle of a trade and ended up with a limited player like Brandon Wright, the Dubs would have won more games. Had the Warriors held onto Barnes (far more important in the Mavs series than Harrington) it might have been worth three games. This is a franchise that has been making mistakes for decades. No, I wouldn’t play Maggette at power forward, but you got to play him somewhere if you are going to pay him. Who made that pickup? He’s a very un-Nelson like player. You can crunch numbers anyway you want, compared to the Warriors disastrous mistakes of the past “going small”—it if it a mistake at all—is small potatoes.

 p(. The Ws have spent the offseason trying to get a big man. They don’t have much to use to pull it off. They seem to have discovered that expiring contracts are worth more than a bunch of so-so bench guys that some people think are the next stars in waiting. In many years, Nellie hasn’t cut loose many players who could really play in his career. There have been a few, but the man assesses talent pretty well and is creative at patching holes. How many times can we have this conversation?

by Marques8 on Aug 12, 2009 10:06 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

damn dude, the haters are gonna be after you

you are refuting their main belief that Nellie is to blame for everything. Shhhhhhh, turn out the lights and get under the covers…someone’s coming…..

by crab dribble cocktail on Aug 12, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOOK....

its not like he has Gasol, Bynum and Odom and sends out a lineup of fisher, kobe, vujacic, ariza, odom for 40 minutes

by tafkasam on Aug 12, 2009 10:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Some of it was simply playing the hand dealt.

True enough, the injury bug certainly hit us hard. And once the season was underway I seem to recall Nelson used what he had at hand pretty well.

However, as much as the original poster likes to trash Harrington’s rebounding numbers, our trade of our starting PF for Crawford, another combo guard, is on Nelson. We still are thin along the front line, both physically and through the depth chart. While I’m all for giving AR & BWright time at PF, if we go into the season with only those two along with AB & Turiaf we are asking for trouble again – one injury anywhere there means we’ll be seeing Maggs at PF some this season (or George).

by hardcore on Aug 13, 2009 12:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Maggs please, anything to keep Devean George where he belongs – at left bench.

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So let me get this straight....

Berri uses WP and gets props.

I wrote a similar posts using Hollinger’s EWA and it’s no bueno?

EWA and the Warriors

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by FLAxwless on Aug 13, 2009 3:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The “wins” Berri speaks of correlate highly to actual team wins. Add them up and you’re real, real close to the number of wins a team has. The “wins” in the EWA are all over the map. Add them up and you’re then left to take an average of the starter wins and divide it by some other number to get a ratio that may or may not represent a threshold for playoffs. Berri has published his metric. It’s primary literature (in academic speak, meaning it’s been reviewed by others). Hollinger’s EWA has only the endorsement that he put it up at ESPN’s site where he’s an employee.

by jae on Aug 13, 2009 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hollinger also believes BWright

is a top teir PF in the nba (offensively). While he is efficient with the ball, he is hardly starter material hollinger thinks he is

by tafkasam on Aug 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So with Berri’s assessment, could we see a Phoenix Suns of 2004 (61 wins) meteoric rise? I certainly don’t expect 60+ wins, but maybe 40-45? Certainly doesn’t seem too far out of reach considering relative luck with our injuries.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."

by kenntoe on Aug 13, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

by outqast on Aug 13, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Are those mutually exclusive?

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DR Berri's assessment is wrong

I can agree with some of his assessment, but as far as wins and losses for this year, I completely disagree. Yes, if we played AR and BW it would have resulted in some wins, if we had Monta for 75% of the games it would have mean more wins. Now how many wins, we cannot predict. I disagree with Jae assessment that Monta gives us 24 wins like Baron does. Baron was the only player who could command a double team. Ellis doesn’t. Teams try to lock down Baron cause they know the offense begins with Baron. Baron was top 5 PG when he played here. That is why we lost so many games last year, the affect of Baron leaving this team is huge. We won 29 games last year, if Baron stayed and Ellis remained injured we would have won close to 40 games (If baron remained healthy) because he is the only player that could create match up problems and command double team. Without Baron in this team, we are not a 50 win team regardless if Ellis is healthy and AR and BW played PF. Every team the coach Nelson coached them to the playoff had a superstar player that created match up problems. I just think the West is deeper than the year we went to playoff. We will face many match up problems with teams who are loaded with frontcourt players. We definitely need to remain healthy, a beefy PF who can be a shoot blocker is definitely needed especially with Ellis defense. Btw, Leon Powe signed with the Cavs for two years minimum wage, I think we could have done better than that at least we end with a player who can help us offensively and defensively. I believe he would have loved to play in his home town close to his family. Let see what Sampson can do!!!!

Waaaarroirs

by puffylove on Aug 13, 2009 1:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with Jae assessment that Monta gives us 24 wins like Baron does.

Re-read what I wrote. It is different from what you are responding to.

by jae on Aug 13, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry Jae

I did miss read your article, my bad bro.

Waaaarroirs

by puffylove on Aug 13, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with Jae assessment that Monta gives us 24 wins like Baron does.

It was 12 and 12. But since you’re obviously not that swayed by numbers, you should try rewatching some games from that season — particularly the second half of the season, when Monta blew up into a crazy “mini-Wade” while Baron, possibly due to fatigue, increasingly resembled the out-of-shape lazy chucker he became with the Clips. There’s an actual, non-alcohol-related reason Nellie sat BD’s arse on the bench with the team’s playoff hopes on the line.

if Baron stayed and Ellis remained injured we would have won close to 40 games

Not if Baron had played remotely like he did with the Clips. In his 2300 mostly terrible minutes played last season, he produced precisely 1.5 wins. His combination of fat contract and useless play made him the 6th most overpaid player in the NBA last season.

Let see what Sampson can do!!!!

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. ;-)

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did watch those games, Ellis looked I don’t doubt that. But you can’t if we kept Baron then we would have had the Baron from the Clippers. Who knows, same system and happy with his contract he actually might have produced. I read many articles that says when Baron is healthy, he is a top 5 PG in this league. Ellis was driven by being on a contract year and he put on good numbers but I doubt you going to see that kind of production once he moves to the PG position. Besides if you read what I posted, my main argument was that this team cannot win more than 40 games regardless if Ellis is healthy and AR and BW played the PF position. I might not be the best communicator on this site, but I do know what I am talking about, so don’t think I don’t watch any games and I can assure you I love the Warriors more than you do and thats why I am criticizing my team. There are dreams and there is realistic observation, my realistic observation is that with the current squad, we can’t compete with the other teams mainly due to lack of defense and a quality star player that commands a double team and teams have to plan against. So go ahead and tell me whats in your mind!!!! :>

Waaaarroirs

by puffylove on Aug 13, 2009 6:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Did you fail English class?

You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk

by LostHawkGSW on Aug 13, 2009 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

woow, where did that come from?

No, I didn’t. I passed all of them with a bachelor degree and preparing for my GRE these days. So, what do you have going in your life? oh, wait, should I ask are you dumb for asking me a such question?

Waaaarroirs

by puffylove on Aug 13, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read many articles that says when Baron is healthy, he is a top 5 PG in this league.

He was healthy last year, and wasn’t in the Top 20.

Ellis was driven by being on a contract year

Possibly — but why wouldn’t same apply to BD?

if you read what I posted, my main argument was that this team cannot win more than 40 games regardless if Ellis is healthy and AR and BW played the PF position.

Yeah, I got that part. It might be true, but since you gave nothing to support it, I considered it more assertion than argument. Why should I trust you more than Berri, one of the most respected basketball analysts around?

I can assure you I love the Warriors more than you do

Link?

we can’t compete with the other teams mainly due to lack of defense and a quality star player that commands a double team and teams have to plan against.

Assuming you mean compete with the top teams in the league, I don’t disagree. But do you actually think a slow, declining 30 y.o. BD is “a star player that teams have to plan against”? He sure wasn’t last season, and throughout his career has only been that guy sporadically. As we approach 2010, I’ll take my chances with Randolph becoming that guy. I think Missing Barry basically nailed it above: “40-42 would be realistic, 50+ would mean Randolph turned into a stud already….”

Thank you for clarifying the manner and quality of the thinking behind your analysis. -- the.monk

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can assure you I love the Warriors more than you do

Link?

That made me laugh.

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, lets see how this year goes and we will see who is more realistic. Baron Davis is a star in my opinion when healthy. Last year, he played in meaningless games and with the Clippers, I believe things would have been different if he remained in the same team and system. Clippers tried to play run and gun style once and ultimately choose to play half court offense after losing couple games. They have no identity as a team. This year, things are different for them. They at least have a healthy team BD, Gorden, Thornton, Griffen and Kaman or Camby. That is a solid squad that can play uptempo style that fits with BD style. As far as the link goes for what does the Warrior mean to me, there is no link but my heart devotion that I pride on. 40-42 will be huge leap from 29 games but I think it is attainable if we add a beefy PF who can rebound and block some shots, otherwise we will face a lot of problems from teams that have solid front court players including Memphis who isn’t one of the top teams. In the West conference, we can beat teams like Sac and Thunder for sure, Clippers and Timberwolves maybe, that’s all. So we aren’t talking about top teams only. In the Eastern conference, we an beat close to 5 or 6 teams tops, win here and there, I think we end up at most close to 38 games if we get lucky. The math behind this, we win against the four teams in the Western conference, thats 16 games add another 12 from the eastern conference teams, you end up with 28 games. Add another 10 wins from here and there and that we would end up with 38 wins and that is if we stay healthy as a team.

Waaaarroirs

by puffylove on Aug 13, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

“if we add a beefy PF who can rebound and block some shots”

Yay, I’m making progress, we’re actually targeting basketball skills instead of just the beef aspect. :)

I just want to point out at this point that Baron Davis is 30 years old. Combine his age with his injury history, and he’s not nearly the elite athlete he used to be. I believe he’s still capable of being a good player if he commits to it, but he just physically isn’t the same Baron we’ll all remember forever dunking on top of Kirilenko.

“40-42 will be huge leap from 29 games”

It’s not as big a leap as it seems, just because of injuries. Injuries will always happen, but last year was particularly bad for the Warriors. If the best players are healthy a normal amount that alone will add a lot of extra victories. We were definitely more talented than 29 wins last year, it was just that our talent was on the bench in street clothes…

by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm crossing my fingers & toes

That he doesn’t fall in love w/ the 4 guard lineup this again while young talent at the 4 spot rots on the bench. I do kinda envision him putting AR4 w/ 4 guards more often than I hope(sadly). He ALWAYS does stuff like that.

Can you stand the rain...?

by Tim&ChrisBurger on Aug 13, 2009 6:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What pseudo-science, incomplete hypothesis and B.S….

Berri: Unconventional lineups may have cost the Warrors wins. Might as well have been,

Unconventional lineups;

1. Due to injuries may have cost the Warrors wins
2. Due to poor draft choices may have cost the Warrors wins
3. Due to poor Upper Management vision may have cost the Warrors wins.
4→20

JAE, we all understand your compelling need to keep up the blog postings, but please post more scientific articles under "science"!!! The last (2) postings that you have authored/posted/defended have lacked scientific credibility.

by streetballer on Aug 13, 2009 7:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Disagreeing with someone is not the same thing as them being unscientific.

by jae on Aug 13, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha...

Streetballer, your act is getting tired.

Thing 2

by olympicmike on Aug 13, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice article

I do have a problem with the blocks stat being used in this analysis, though. Blocks often return possession back to the other team so they can set up another shot, which really doesn’t do as much as it looks. Net possessions is a nice stat though – it should be used more.

"It is amazing how much can be accomplished if no one cares who gets the credit." - Coach John Wooden

by Yoyo on Aug 23, 2009 12:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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