FanPost

The Warriors and APM

I thought I'd share something I stumbled upon a little while ago: 2008-9 Adjusted Plus Minus ratings. For those of you who aren't familiar, Adjusted +/- (or just APM) is a metric for separating an individuals contribution to the team based on how the team does with him on the floor. APM has gotten some street cred as a stat recently, since it was referenced in a Micheal Lewis article. More info can be found here and here. These numbers were compiled by Steve Ilardi, and a little more about his method for these can be found here. To reduce noise, he used 6 seasons of data, weighting earlier seasons much less than the 2008-9 season. Here are the numbers for the Warriors:

			                        Off	    Def	        Std	Total
Team Player Min APM APM Err APM
GSW, NYK Harrington, Al 2,479 1.56 0.04 0.90 1.60
GSW Jackson, Stephen 2,184 1.59 -0.39 0.96 1.20
GSW Morrow, Anthony 1,433 4.09 -2.93 1.34 1.16
GSW Turiaf, Ronny 1,624 1.51 -0.49 1.09 1.02
GSW Biedrins, Andris 1,756 -1.05 1.93 1.07 0.88
GSW Wright, Brandan 649 -0.10 0.02 1.61 -0.08
GSW Maggette, Corey 1,494 1.26 -1.59 0.97 -0.33
GSW Belinelli, Marco 851 -2.33 1.81 1.49 -0.52
GSW, NYK Crawford, Jamal 2,379 2.57 -3.96 0.89 -1.39
GSW Ellis, Monta 834 -0.16 -1.51 1.14 -1.66
GSW Randolph, Anthony 1,106 -0.80 -0.89 1.43 -1.69
GSW Azubuike, Kelenna 2,262 -2.21 0.37 1.05 -1.83
GSW Watson, C.J. 1,776 0.04 -2.13 1.24 -2.10
GSW Kurz, Rob 427 -10.91 0.35 2.08 -10.57

 

Gut reactions:
- The Harrington-Crawford trade didn't work out in our favor.

-  At first glance, it seems we are underrating Biedrins defense. While this might be true, he's still by no means an elite defender. The metric seems give an advantage to big men on defense (which seems logical). Here are the top 10 by Defensive APM:

Team	Player		Minutes	Def APM
BOS Garnett, Kevin 1,642 8.74
MIL Bogut, Andrew 1,136 8.21
DET Johnson, Amir 906 8.05
HOU Hayes, Chuck 786 7.31
POR Przybilla, Joel 1,935 7.04
PHI Iguodala, Andre 3,269 6.64
DEN Hilario, Nene 2,490 6.56
HOU Ming, Yao 2,454 5.70
PHI Young, Thaddeu 2,580 5.70
LAC Camby, Marcus 1,925 5.66

- It also seems Belinelli might have a slightly underrated defender. CJ Watson and Jamal Crawford, though, seem to be right where we expect them.

- Anthony Morrow is a good offensive player. That pretty much goes without saying.

- Our best player (Stephen Jackson) was the 100th best player in the league.

- I think we're all going to miss Rob Kurz.

- The Warriors off-season additions speak for themselves:

DAL	George, Devean	673	-6.66	-2.13	1.29	-8.78
ATL Law, Acie 553 -3.03 2.51 1.63 -0.53
ATL Claxton, Speedy NO DATA

-  One big blowout listing of players everyone wants the Warriors to trade for, former Warriors, and the top-20:

PLAYERS IN EVERY FAR-FETCHED TRADE PROPOSAL
PHX Stoudemire, Amare 1,948 -2.38 2.13 1.05 -0.25
UTA Boozer, Carlos 1,155 -0.01 -1.98 1.07 -1.99
TOR Bosh, Chris 2,884 5.65 0.54 1.10 6.19
UTA Kirilenko, Andrei 1,805 1.39 3.29 1.00 4.68
NOTABLE FORMER WARRIORS
LAC Davis, Baron 2,248 1.63 0.49 0.96 2.12
CHA, PHX Richardson, Jason 2,411 0.05 -3.12 0.90 -3.07
ORL Pietrus, Mickael 1,329 0.55 0.20 0.93 0.76
IND Murphy, Troy 2,482 3.02 -2.15 1.04 0.87
IND Dunleavy, Mike 495 -2.46 0.38 1.18 -2.08
MIN Cardinal, Brian 909 3.72 1.67 1.40 5.39
NBA 2008-9 APM TOP 20
MIA Wade, Dwyane 3,048 10.66 2.96 1.16 13.61
BOS Garnett, Kevin 1,642 4.47 8.74 1.07 13.21
CLE James, LeBron 3,054 10.16 3.03 1.09 13.19
NOH Paul, Chris 2,888 9.36 3.35 1.42 12.71
PHX Nash, Steve 2,484 11.28 -2.45 1.11 8.83
LAL Odom, Lamar 2,203 3.28 5.52 0.95 8.81
PHI Iguodala, Andre 3,269 1.96 6.64 1.19 8.61
ORL Lewis, Rashard 2,859 5.17 2.94 0.96 8.11
HOU Ming, Yao 2,454 1.59 5.70 1.03 7.29
DAL Kidd, Jason 2,814 3.31 3.35 0.98 6.66
LAL Gasol, Pau 2,857 4.53 2.11 0.92 6.64
DAL Nowitzki, Dirk 2,977 4.83 1.67 1.16 6.50
PHI Young, Thaddeus 2,580 0.67 5.70 1.08 6.37
TOR Bosh, Chris 2,884 5.65 0.54 1.10 6.19
DET Johnson, Amir 906 -1.86 8.05 1.47 6.18
HOU Artest, Ron 2,343 0.83 5.01 0.93 5.83
SAS Parker, Tony 2,386 4.48 1.29 1.18 5.77
LAL Bryant, Kobe 2,824 7.57 -1.95 1.10 5.63
WAS Jamison, Antawn 3,025 4.26 1.31 1.11 5.58
SAS Duncan, Tim 2,454 1.81 3.60 1.22 5.40

So, what do you think? Are we wrong about Biedrins D? Are you excited about Morrow's offense? Do we want Amare? Boozer? Should we still try to get Baron back? Is Adjusted Plus Minus even a good metric for judging a players value?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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