Wright Away?
by Naticus on Aug 3, 2009 1:57 AM PDT
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ESPN's John Hollinger on Brandan Wright's 2007-2008 season: "I'm trying to stop myself from getting too excited since it was only 377 minutes, but man ... [Brandon Wright] looked fantastic, and I'm a little puzzled as to why he didn't play more." With all the talk about trades and potential for next season, I got to thinking about Brandon Wright.
Wright's 7'4" wingspan allows his hook shot to soar over all comers.
Some fans say of Wright, "...a bust," "...the dood [sic] sucks," or "Don't renew." However, as Hollinger points out, he simply needs to put on some weight and develop a jump shot, and he'll be "a very capable power forward." What does Hollinger see in him?
How about his PER: 18.8. On the Warriors, only Andris Biedrins had higher. His PER is comparable to players like Jason Terry, Carmelo Anthony, David West, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler, while it surpasses the PERS of Carlos Boozer, Andre Iguodala, Richard Hamilton and ironically, Jason Richardson.
The PER, it should be noted, doesn't take into account every defensive contribution nor does it consider actual playing time. As our own Atma Brother ONE points out, "Wright has been injury-prone," and "absolutely lost on defense." Despite Wright's excellent timing and length for shot blocking, he's not the ideal defender: not following Nellie's defensive rotations properly and his questionable man to man defense tarnish the overall package. Furthermore, if he is as injury prone as some think, he won't contribute as much and his growth will be stifled.
How likely is it that he'll overcome his more pressing shortcomings?
His Lack of Muscle: Wright turns 22 in October. Runners peak at about 23 judging by Usain Bolt and Carl Louis. But what about strength training and body building? There have been many Mr. Olympia champions well over thirty. Growing muscle can continue for decades past a person's physical peak. How about for pure strength? In the World's Strongest Man competitions, Magnus Ver Magnusson won his first championship at about 28, while Mariusz Pudzianowski won his first at about 25. Wright may have six or more years before he reaches his peak in strength. It's up to him and his trainers whether he takes the most advantage of what appears to be limited potential in this area. Look for an increase in muscularity and strength in the next few years. Age is a big factor in this; both time and human physiology must be considered.
Being Injury Prone: The first question one might ask is, is he actually injury prone? Whether he is nor not, let me simply suggest that muscle, bone structure and body control prevent injury. Wright's athleticism, despite his limited lateral speed, suggests good body control, while as one can see above, Wright has time to get a lot stronger. He'll need it to prevent future injuries to that shoulder of his. As far as his bone structure, he's relatively light, he's hopefully very symmetrical, and let's hope he doesn't have structural defects in his feet.
His Poor Jump Shooting Ability: How is Brandan's jump shot? Draft Express explains, "Although the form on his shot is very awkward, Wright seems to have no problem knocking down the mid range jumper when left open..." That was from 2005. The people with the best jump shots go with the form recommended by the professionals. Once one has "fossilized" their form, it can be tough to change it. This may be why we don't see Wright shooting jumpers. I find it likely that as he works to improve his form, his jump shooting FG% has diminished, not unlike how Biedrin's FT% has dropped since he improved his form. Is it possible that his hook shot can get enough range to help compensate for a weak jumper? I don't think this is implausible. Hopefully, though, his inchoate jump shot will evolve to the team's benefit.
His Shaky Defense: Defense improves with time, training and motivation. If he has the desire and continues to play in this league, as expected, we should see a gradual improvement in this area. Furthermore, bulking up will be a tremendous help in defending bigs. His defensive rebounding needs work as well. Perhaps conditioning and strength will improve this deficiency.
How good will Brandan get? Some say, keep Brandan Wright at PF, eventually playing Anthony Randolph more at SF. While unlikely, it may come together. But it's far more likely that Brandan and Anthony would continue to compete for minutes, should Wright not get traded. If he stays with Golden State, and improves quickly, GSoMers will have reason to celebrate. Should he not develop well, the Dubs have lost an opportunity to take advantage of apparent upside in a trade. The F.O. has a big decision to make with Brandan Wright. This isn't like getting rid of our old futon.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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I truely believe...
Brandan Wright can be the future PF of the Warriors. 17-10 2-3blks. With or without the beef added but of course the beef would be a plus.
if Wright is the PF of the future
please tell me where Randolph is…
AND DONT SAY SF!!!
I KICKED IT WITH JESUS ONCE.. HE'S KIND OF A PRICK
That may be the best spot for him. Lamar Odom does it. I see no reason why Randolph can’t at some point in the future. Of course, only time will tell if he can play that position.
I hate those normal-sized midgets. What are they called again? Oh, yeah. People.
Why don’t say SF? He is is a 3, Nellie is just playing him out of position, like so many of our other players. Why would you say he is not a 3?
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Randolph is not a 3 because the things he has been successful at, rebounding, blocking shots and converting in the paint, are things that tend to mark a 4 more than a 3, and the things he’s had problems with, namely passing and putting the ball on the floor without a huge spike in turnovers, hitting shots outside of the paint with any consistency are those things that would mark him as a 3.
I do not think he’s at all playing out of position as Anthony was wildly ineffective and detrimental when he played at the 3 and was rather effective and contributed positively at the 4. That doesn’t suggest he’s out of position at all, unless you believe that someone can play better “out of position” which is a problematic approach to defining positions.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Keep This In Mind
Randolph was the youngest player in the NBA last season and those things he struggled with last season while playing the 3 are things young players struggle with (Passing, putting the ball on the floor, and shot selection) His frame suggests he is a 3 rather then a 4. But time will tell, for now we can just call him a hybrid forward, and thats extremely valuable in the NBA
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
You can't call him a hybrid forward ...
… because he hasn’t shown he can play the 3 effectively.
Now, obviously, if that changes then our evaluation of him will change. And we can all hope that he will change, and there may even be some reason to be optimistic about it.
But even calling him a hybrid is simply not justifiable based on what he’s actually done so far.
I am talking about the natural progression that Randolph will no doubt show in season two. With more experience comes a better knowledge of the court, better shot and pass selection. There is no reason to believe that Randolph cannot develop this. These sectors of the game are something an individual with talent can acquire with practice and experience, it’s not that he doesn’t have the talent or ability to do the things needed in a 3. That’s why i used the term hybrid, because that’s where i think he will be played this season and that will give him more minutes depending on matchups at either the 3 or 4 position. Of course this is with the assumption that he will progress as a player and learn the entangables necessary.
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I am talking about the natural progression that Randolph will no doubt show in season two. With more experience comes a better knowledge of the court, better shot and pass selection. There is no reason to believe that Randolph cannot develop this.
There’s no reason to believe he cannot develop those abilities, but there’s certainly no reason to believe he will develop those abilities either.
Thing A
With the importance rebounding seems to have, do you think an eventual move to the 3 (accompanied by the development of those skills) would be a good idea? Basically I’m curious as to how big of a positive effect having Randolph at the 3 would have on our team’s rebounding – having him, Biedrins, and a 4 (even if that 4 isn’t an outstanding rebounding 4) seems like it would help us dominate the glass. Thoughts?
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
You Make Another Valid Point
Having Randolph at the 3 and acquiring a 4 with an inside game will make the Warriors incredibly hard matchup. Having Beidrins at center, an inside threat at the 4 (Boozer, Staudamire, Smith etc) and Randolph at the 3 is an absolutely amazing front line considering the strength of our team is on the wing with Ellis, Jackson, Morrow, Buke and Curry. A team would be hardpressed to double a driving Ellis if that would leave an open Randolph or (Insert name) PF open. The rotation would come too late considering Ellis speed and on court awareness either leaving the 3 or 4 positions open or Jackson, Morrow or Buke open on the wing. And we all know they will drain a wide open jump shot 80 percent of the time. This is why acquiring a threat at the 4 position would open up so many avenues and make the warriors a good team, not just an average team
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Having Randolph at the 3 and acquiring a 4 with an inside game will make the Warriors incredibly hard matchup
Only if either Randolph or the 4 is capable of extending the defense. Having 3 players on the floor at the same time who have to play as close to the rim on offense as Biedrins and Randolph do right now usually leads to a very ineffective offense.
Thing A
Look for offers now
See what we can get, Maxiell, Beasley who ever it may be. Just look at what’s available then make a choice.
Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "Your a rookie"
Would never even consider trading Wright for Maxiell straight up, that’s a horrible trade. Maxiell would be nothing more then a throw in player in a package and apparently Wright has major trade value right now.
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
No, maybe throw in a draft pick.
But it’s just one idea. They would probably want George, Law, or Claxton’s expiring deal though.
Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "Your a rookie"
They would have to receive an expiring contract to make the deal work! I could see swapping Wright for Maxiell and an unprotected 2010 1st rd pick. Detroit won’t be that good next season. But i would explore other options first and see if we can acquire a more established PF. If not go to Detroit with that offer, but i am not sure they make that deal considering they are in rebuilding, not reloading mode. Yet again the deal would save the Pistons Maxiell’s contract (5.2million) going into the 2010 off-season and they apparently don’t seem like they want to build through the draft See (Gordon and Villanuava)
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Well written, a thinker's fanpost, definitely got my rec
is Brandan Wright injury prone? He’s only had one major injury, the shoulder separation. I vaguely remember posting his injury list before and didn’t see anything else major. But I couldn’t understand why people call him injury prone. But I CAN understand why people would call him a “potentially” injury prone with his skinny frame that looks like it can be twisted and torn apart at the slightest bump.
As for the poll, I was stuck between keeping him and trading him. I can’t see Wright ever overtaking Randolph. AR has that fire to never quit and to go after everything and to really improve himself. Wright’s been too quiet and passive by comparison. I can understand developing Wright as a backup to AR, because I do like his offensive side, unreachable jump shots and soft hooks. But without toughness and assertiveness, I voted for shipping Wright out for some real beef.
“I voted for shipping Wright out for some real beef.”
Do you find it likely that we’ll get someone back in return that brings as much current production and potential as Wright? This whole “beef” thing needs to stop, we need to focus on actual skills we’re looking for. I find it unlikely we’ll find someone out there with a better combination of ability now and chance of improving than Wright.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
lol
this fascination with beef is pretty funny.
If you guys want to find some beef, i Know there are great tight ends , and defensive ends in the NFL with tons of beef.
Would you guys be for aquiring Antonio Gates, Julius Peppers, Albert Haynesworth…etc.
If you are sorely looking for some big guys with alot of strength and will not be close to the basketball talent that we have in Wright.
But if you are looking for beef, at this point there isn’t any available better than Wright unless you trade alot of our players for a TOP PLAYER who happens to be strong. I don’t know who that would be, but lets stop the beef movement.
Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan
I don’t know who that would be, but lets stop the beef movement.
maybe we should go for pork? we could entice barkley out of retirement.
" I hear the ancient footsteps like the motion of the sea
Sometimes I turn, there's someone there, other times it's only me
I am hanging in the balance of the reality of man
Like every sparrow falling, like every grain of sand."
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 4, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
We already had Fish, unfortunately. The Fish movement only seems to work when accompanied by side dishes of All-Time Great Wing and Elite Big.
It’s just too bad we never had Bird…
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Aug 4, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s just too bad we never had Bird…
if we did he’d probably have turned out to be a dodo.
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I would rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up to heaven
At this crescent in the sky
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 4, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I really like Wright’s potential. While I am not against shopping him, I don’t believe we should move him unless the deal helps us both for the short-term and the long-term. I think Wright really does have All-Star potential.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2009 3:16 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Wright's potential???
He is a damn bust for god sake. He is soft and get throw around the paint like a little boy. The only skills he has is a decent jumpers and D’s sometime. And never put the word, “all-star” in the same sentence as him. This dood is going to be above average team player or a starting PF. All I got to say, he will always be remember as the trade bait no body want.
by warriorfan4life on Aug 9, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
So he’s a bust despite the fact that you think he can be a starting PF? How does that work? How do you even call a player that’s played 2 years (and been a decent player when playing) a bust?
by Missing Barry on Aug 9, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, I thought the reason Wright didn’t play him was because Nelson didn’t want to play two players without mid-range games. Wright, in fact, hasn’t shown he has a jumper. What he has is an excellent hook shot. Where did you get the idea that he has a jumper? I don’t recall him having a jumper at all.
I hate those normal-sized midgets. What are they called again? Oh, yeah. People.
Did that first poll choice change?
Or am I just too tired to read correctly? I could have sworn that first poll choice said something about “beef”.
I thought that I saw it as well.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2009 3:25 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Nice diary, Naticus — Rec.
One tangential thought: even though Hollinger is considered a bit of a clown in the hoops statistical community, he’s fairly high profile and probably pretty influential. Which is to say, his public touting of Wright’s impressive PER can only help the Warriors. My biggest qualm right now with trading Wright is that, given his injuries last season, it might amount to “selling low;” but if there’s even one GM out there who happens to be a devotee of Hollinger and PER, we could be in business.
Alternatively, we could hang on to him, make a concerted effort to find him 18-22 minutes a game at backup 4 (with Randolph playing a few minutes at 3 or 5), and see whether he can blossom into a real NBA player. Encouraging him to get his rebounding back to what it was his rookie season would be a great place to start.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Aug 3, 2009 7:22 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
unless we land a fifth big who can play, there shouldn’t be too much trouble finding minutes for Wright …
oops, what am I thinking, Nelson will use Maggette there again … sigh …
oops, what am I thinking, Nelson will use Maggette there again … sigh …
It beats playing Devean George there….the feat of seeing that for about 15-20 mpg is the only reason I dislike the Belinelli deal
Thing A
Things we loathe or fear
Last season:
1. Maggette taking a 3 (he got more selective late in the season, though)
2. Maggette passing the ball
3. Jackson dribbling into a double/triple team
4. Crawford taking a shot
This season:
1. Devean George walking onto the floor
2. Maggette passing the ball
I didn’t fear it. I never saw it enough to fear it. It didn’t seem like bad things happened when he passed it. It was just an incredibly rare event.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I did fear Maggette's passing
because when he passed, it was usually off target or bounced short of the receiver. And I’m not talking about passing when he drove. That itself definitely rare. I’m referring to when he would pass to Jack or Crawford or whomever just to set up a play. Those simple looking passes were facepalm UGLY. It made me wonder why they don’t give Maggette passing drills in practice.
Last year Maggs had 2.7 turnovers per 36, and 2.1 assists per 36. So it was definitely ugly more often than not.
Not all of those turnovers were on passes though.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Oohh...
Those numbers ARE facepalm ugly….
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by Tim&ChrisBurger on Aug 3, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
because when he passed, it was usually off target or bounced short of the receiver.
Well yeah, when he passed it, but I try not to read too much into something that only happened 3 or 4 times. I’ll fear his passing when it is no longer less common than shark attacks.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ll fear his passing when it is no longer less common than shark attacks.
You mean you’re not afraid of shark attacks?!?! What about lightning strikes? It must be nice to live a life free of fear. ; )
Thing 2
but
its shark week, which put a huge damper on my tentative monday morning surfing plans yesterday. Why did stupid shark week have to coincide with my visit to san clemente and why can’t I not watch any show about sharks? If the discovery channel dedicated a week to Maggette bloopers I’m confident that even jae could learn to fear his passing.
Thing A
I fear Jackson’s shot fake, wait for it………wait for it……shot fake….HOIST…clank.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
I used to fear Turiaf taking a mid range
Seemed like he improved as the season went, but haven’t looked at stats.
I always felt that if Ronny is shooting a 18-20 footer either,
A. It was a BAD offensive posession.
B. We lacked a player on the court who could get other player’s the ball in the appropriate spots.
C. I never knew that Ronny could shoot from distance while with the Lakers. Although I hate watching the Lakers play when they aren’t playing against the Warriors.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
LOL
That is so true and you can add Law to that too. I fear Monta Ellis injuring his ankle again too
Die Hard Warrior Fan 4 Life!!!
Golden State Warriors
Ellis/Curry
Jackson/Morrow
Azubukie/Maggette
Randolph/Wright
Andris/Turiaf
PlayOffs??
Living 4 a GSW Championship!!!
I think we are nuts if we do not give BW a couple of more years to develope
I also do not get this “prone to injury” label on such a young player. Believe it or not AR will probably have some injury time this year also and BW could be the new “savior” everyone is raving about.
Basically we have "overly hyped down BW in direct proportion to the amount that we have “overly hyped up AR” as if they are linked. Both players are very young and we have yet to see how they will progress. At this time relative to cost and potential I would rather let BW develope than have admin feel pressure to make a stupid expensive trade.
If everyone is worried that bringing in a new PF will take minutes away from AR then they should consider that BW could be the perfect compliment(and folks AR cannot play 40+ min every game and will have some injury) aaannnnddd if BW developes into a very strong PF/ good enough to compete for AR’s min……guess what…that is a good problem to have to deal with.
by Only In Fairfax on Aug 3, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I Agree To Some Extent
But it’s a trade off isn’t it? Deciding between contending now or once again looking to the future. I mean a lineup of
Curry
Ellis
Beidrins
Wright
Randolph
doesn’t look too bad a year or two from now. But i am sick and tired of hearing this organization say we must look towards the future. Why can’t we do both? Seriously, Apparently we have done a decent job in evaluating talent with Ellis, Morrow, Azabuke, Beidrins, Wright and Randolph but when it comes to putting it all together that is where this franchise fails. We can win right now without mortgaging the future and that does include exploring possible trade scenarios with Brandon Wright. Should we give him away? Of course not. But adding a seasoned and talented player at the 4 would go along way in competing for a playoff spot this season. And we wouldn’t be trading away any of our other corp players!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Keep Wright
We all see him play and he’s good. It’s just his lack of strength and his injuries, but I think Wright can still be a good player. Maybe not starting for the W’s, but I can still see him being really good off the bench for them or maybe start on a different team. Just keep Wright, maybe he’ll surprise us during the season.
Re: the photo up top of BW with Wings: was I the only one who was reminded of Patrick Ewing’s excellent and strange cameo as the Angel of Death in Exorcist III (1989)?
Come to think of it, a cool nickname like “Angel of Death” could be BWright’s first step towards the big time. For one thing, he wouldn’t have to deal with everyone spelling his first name “Brandon” …
There will be no extra point!
Keep Brandan
When Wright was drafted John Hollinger said it’s would take a couple years for him to develop but when he did he was going to be really good. By Kepping Wright we give him 2 more years or so to show what he can do and continue to grow and develop in Golden State. Right now Wright is a solid backup who can come in and run the floor, score, rebound aliitle, and block some shots. That’s probably the worst Wright is going to be in this league, so if he can improve we are lucky to have him on the Dubs.
Die Hard Warrior Fan 4 Life!!!
Golden State Warriors
Ellis/Curry
Jackson/Morrow
Azubukie/Maggette
Randolph/Wright
Andris/Turiaf
PlayOffs??
Living 4 a GSW Championship!!!
Jump Shooting Ability
Once one has “fossilized” their form, it can be tough to change it.
I’ll go one step further: he shouldn’t try to change it now, it’s too late even as young as he is. What coaching experience working with 3+ decades of HS & College players, & watching NBA players has shown me is this: What makes great shooters is accuracy, what makes great accuracy is practice and repetition. Even with unconventional mechanics, shooters can and do improve their accuracy.
Obviously, great mechanics help – and should be taught to players at the levels leading up to college, but even in college with all the extra practice it’s very very difficult to adjust shot mechanics dramatically. Small adjustments, like following through, or mental ones such as sight point/target, or strategic ones like using the backboard to increase the percentage – these can and are made and improve accuracy when consistently implemented. Tim Duncan’s use of the backboard has been well documented for example.
So, great mechanics are not an absolute must – Jamal Wilkes had strange mechanics, Bernard King, World B Free, even Rick Barry’s unconventional underhanded FT – great scorers from Warriors past. Look at today’s game and occasionally find good shooters with their elbows out laterally, or great players who practice taking off balance shots/fading away as a skill. What we think of as “great mechanics” really is a misnomer. The classic jumpshot ala Kenny Smith is a great mechanical base to teach young players, but once habits form through their teens, it’s too time consuming to break down the shot completely and rebuild it mechanically. Conventional mechanics are doubly difficult for young men who physically grow at an accelerated pace – the old “big men develop slower” concept is probably most apt with fine motor skills like shooting from range and ball handling than skills like rebounding and blocking shots are.
Is it possible that his hook shot can get enough range to help compensate for a weak jumper? I don’t think this is implausible. Hopefully, though, his inchoate jump shot will evolve to the team’s benefit.
Like Wilkes’ unconventional shot, and Kareem’s skyhook, Wright’s hook is both difficult to defend and a shot he can perfect with practice. Kareem used to shoot his skyhook from 10-12 feet out on the baseline at times, though more often from the block, he became HOF player with that shot. Not that BW will do so necessarily, but he’d likely have much more success investing the time and energy perfecting his own hook than changing the mechanics of his jumper in his early twenties.
by hardcore on Aug 3, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I disagree, a lot of NBA players tweak their mechanics during their career. It’s hard work and takes a lot of effort, but if a player is really driven to outwork his NBA peers to accomplish something like this (no easy feat, NBA players work hard), he absolutely should attempt to improve his form. Jordan did it with his jumper. Lebron did it after his first year in the league. If he doesn’t put in a tremendous amount of effort, though, it can certainly backfire and set the player back. And I’m not saying a complete overhaul of mechancis, necessarily, mostly tweaks – making sure the elbow positioning is good and things like that.
“Look at today’s game and occasionally find good shooters with their elbows out laterally, or great players who practice taking off balance shots/fading away as a skill. What we think of as "great mechanics" really is a misnomer.”
I strongly disagree, very, very few of the good shooters in the league don’t have exceptional form. Reggie Miller is the only great shooter I can think of who didn’t shoot with his elbow in, and his overall form was still pretty good, simple and consistent. Practice is still the most important factor, but mechanics put a ceiling on what you’ll be as a shooter – the better the mechanics, the better you can become with enough practice.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
a careful reading of your reply suggests to me we that perhaps we don’t disagree as much as you might think, either way it should be interesting to see how Wright progresses
I kinda agree with you both.
I think guys can get away with ugly jumpshots. But….they need to be very good with that ugly jumpshot. And that usually means practice, repetition, and confidence. Not to mention maybe a pg setting you up in the right (or is it Wright) position.
I agree with Core though in that the best jumpshooters usually have impeccable form. But there are always different ways to success. Just look at Kevin Martin as an example. By the “look” test his shot mechanics are fugly. He should be a 30% shooter with that form.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
The question is also how good does Wright want to be at shooting. He may want to develop his post game and so jumpshots aren’t a huge part of his game. Revamping his mechanics in that case would probably be a waste of time. If he wants to rely heavily on a jumpshot, though, it’d be worthwhile to change the mechanics and put the effort required in for his long term prospects.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Isn't it funny how
Wright could be right near the Basket and instead of laying the ball in or dunking it, he shoots a jumpshot.
Die Hard Warrior Fan 4 Life!!!
Golden State Warriors
Ellis/Curry
Jackson/Morrow
Azubukie/Maggette
Randolph/Wright
Andris/Turiaf
PlayOffs??
Living 4 a GSW Championship!!!
Partway through my reply as I was rereading yours, I started figuring that out, too, but at that point I was too into my statement to change it. :)
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I do not view Wright as a bust yet it is pretty obvious we could have drafted a better all around player that season. Thadeus Young and Joakim Noah comes to mind. That said Nelson never really gave Wright a chance. If we are going to give him away then no. But if we are to receive a more established veteran in a package that includes Wright then we must do it
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 11:45 AM PDT reply actions
Imagine what Wright could do on the Sixers or Bulls.
I have no doubt that Wright would be producing better than either Thaddeus or Joakim. Wright had a better one-and-done season than Thaddeus in 07’ and still has done nothing to disprove his moderate upside. I’d argue that Brandan would/could arguably be better than Noah. But I actually am starting to like Noah as the Bulls 5. He’s like their Andris. He’ll never be a scoring option on a good team. But as long as he rebounds and plays defense and brings the energy each night, the Bulls 5 spot should be held down for the immediate future. But it looks like their patience in Tyrus is waning, if the trade rumors are to be believed of course. Replace Brandan for Thomas, and imagine the kind of frontcourt the Bulls would have. He’d also have a legit PG to play alongside and could also “hide” within the offense as he’d be neither relied upon to be a first or second (probably not even a third) scoring option on their team.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
I suspect Wright has more "talent" than Young or Noah ...
… but the problem with him is the same as the problem with a lot of guys:
They’re talent was enough, until they got to the NBA. And now they need to add hard work with it. And whereas Noah has always seemed like he has really good work habits, Wright hasn’t. And unless he turns it around, he’s going to keep looking lost out there on defense.
prove it.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
And whereas Noah has always seemed like he has really good work habits, Wright hasn’t.
By: Ronaldinho
I thought it was obvious.
Prove if there is any evidence other than bloggers intuition that Wright hasn’t put in the effort to better himself since coming into the league.
I have read before that Wright shows a lack of passion on the court. But that just seems like that is his disposition overall, and maybe his goofy facial expressions. But whenever I watch a game, I’ve never been left feeling that Brandan was uninterested or lackadasical on the court. He consistently would run the court, often times being the first Big down on the court. On defense, he just looked overmatched at times, and got caught in “no mans land”. This of course is a big no-no on defense. This just seems like a case of youth and sub-par defensive awareness. This can be expected with young players as they still might not have a refined basketball IQ.
I know Brandan is an average rebounder considering his PF position. I’d actually like to revise that and say that Brandan is an above-average offensive rebounder (Randolph for comparison averaged 2.0 per game in 20 Min, while Brandan averaged 1.3 in 17 Min). Brandan isn’t as good of a defensive rebounder. Unlike Randolph who attacks (best word to describe it) the ball at it’s highest point on defense. Wright seems to wait for the ball to come to him. I also felt there were a lot of times where because Wright was either out of position on defense, or had to switch on the pick and roll so much (drove me insane, stupid non-defending guards) that he was often left on the perimeter. Anyway, i’m talking about this because for all the reasons that we don’t like Wright, I don’t believe that lack of effort, or good work habits is the all-encompassing answer.
I’d also presume that if Wright had bad work habits or didn’t have the desire to become better now that he is at the highest level of professional basketball, then the Warriors FO would/will not pick up his player option. So we’ll see how that goes.
And also, Noah does have questionable work habits. Let’s look at some links:
As a rookie last season, he got into a verbal altercation with an assistant coach. Earlier that season, he criticized his teammates for a lack of togetherness. Former coach Scott Skiles noted that had Noah actually played more than one NBA game at the time he spouted off, the criticism might have had some meaning.
The truth about professional sports is that if you can play, you can get away with just about anything. In that sense, Noah’s problem is a complete lack of awareness. He thinks he can play. And because of it, he gets himself in all sorts of situations he should avoid if he wants to have an NBA career that lasts longer than a few seasons.
Discussing your frustrations about your current team to the press is very, very stupid. This was written at the beginning of 2009, and to his credit, Noah has been pretty mild mannered since…He must have copped on some good green.
In his brief time in the league Noah, who became a rock star of sorts after helping lead the Gators to back-to-back national titles, has sulked about a lack of playing time, wondered aloud about his teammates’ effort, been held back because of poor conditioning, and appeared lost at both ends of the court. Last season, he missed the afternoon shoot-around for the regular-season finale when he was late returning from a funeral in New York.
Earlier in the season, he exchanged words with assistant coach Ron Adams and was given a one-game team-imposed suspension. In a weird twist, teammates voted unanimously to extend it to a two-game suspension.
Another recap of Noah’s (to that date) 1 and a half year career. If you want to bring up “questionable” work habits, you should honestly pick a guy like Kobe. Not Noah.
Not to mention this Chicago Bulls Forward Joakim Noah Fined, Gets Probation For Drug Charge
Read more: http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011101999#ixzz0NBds7PgA. Maybe Chicago can thank Noah for possibly legalizing Marijuana in the Windy City.
Now, it’s the offseason. And Joakim Noah is celebrating in style.
TMZ.com spotted Noah frolicking in St. Bart’s with a beautiful, occasionally topless girl on his arm. There are photos of the duo in the water, relaxing on the beach, and so on and so forth; there’s nothing particularly scandalous, except when one looks at how stunningly attractive the female is and how goofy-looking Noah remains. (TMZ doesn’t have a name for the girl, but “she’s rumored to be Noah’s girlfriend.” And if TMZ reprints a rumor, you know it’s true!)
Okay, that one was just for fun. You have to be rich and famous when you’re as ugly as Noah.
This has been fun. It’s killed an hour of my time.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
In a weird twist, teammates voted unanimously to extend it to a two-game suspension.
Sound like they ARE a bunch of jerks? Maybe they didn’t like hearing the truth??
" I hear the ancient footsteps like the motion of the sea
Sometimes I turn, there's someone there, other times it's only me
I am hanging in the balance of the reality of man
Like every sparrow falling, like every grain of sand."
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 3, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Now, that wasn't that hard?
See how interesting things happen when you don’t write condescending two-word posts? People learn stuff.
I recall – perhaps incorrectly – a lot of questions about Wright’s motivation and work ethic when he was drafted. Furthermore, people who look that lost on defense usually aren’t practicing hard.
I fail to see the connection between marijuana use and good or back work habits. Quite frankly, marijuana use is endemic to NBA players – most of ‘em use it – and it’s not like, say, Robert Parish was thought of as a lazy player, and he smoked a ton of it.
I haven’t paid that much attention to Noah since he was drafted, since, well, he doesn’t play for a team I watch very often. I remember him as a very hard-working player in college, and I assumed that was still the case. It appears not to be. I appreciate you pointing that out.
no problem, didn't mean to sound condescending.
I recall the same things about Wright (motivation) during his one season at UNC. What I was trying to point out on defense, is that perhaps it was/is a lack of defensive IQ and a lack of other quality defenders that can contribute to Wright’s poor defensive rebounding numbers as well as “deer in headlights” defense.
I also don’t think marijuana use is all that pertinent to the discussion (since it was in the offseason, and the blown out of proportion affects that Marijuana has in the US), but hey some people might. You don’t believe so, so we’ll move on.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
I recall the same things about Wright (motivation) during his one season at UNC
I recall exactly the opposite during his one year at UNC, and I follow UNC real, real closely. Roy Williams said he was coachable, worked hard, had a good attitude. The “motivation issues” thing sprung up around the time he declared for the draft. I can’t find any sources that are anything more than rumor mill, but it hit one of the many predraft boards and started to explode given the way they echo each other (hey, it’s easier than real first hand journalism).
by jae on Aug 4, 2009 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions
The biggest beef we have with Wright, though, has more to do with his lackadaisical approach to the game. He seems like a pretty laid back kid by nature, not showing too much fire or emotion, but that also shows up in his inconsistent focus and intensity level at times as well. He certainly doesn’t go after every rebound with the kind of passion the great glass-cleaners in the NBA do, and he can be quite tentative at times making rotations within the team defense. Some scouts we talked to have already begun to question his heartbeat to a certain extent, but it’s hard to tell how much of that has to do with his youth and secondary role on North Carolina and how much is a real reason for concern. Wright could help dispel those notions immediately by hitting the glass with more enthusiasm and being more of a "beast" on both ends of the floor. Regardless, he’s having a phenomenal freshman season and will likely continue to improve and see his role expand as we move into the NCAA tournament.
NCAA Weekly Performers, 2/8/07— Part Two
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
All around better player. Noah is a better defender and rebounder, he may not have the scoring touch that Wright may develop in the future. But as an all around player Noah is better. That said we cannot penalize Wright for Nellie not playing him and allowing him to mature as a player. Young and Noah have had the chance, Wright hasn’t!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Noah’s the better rebounder and defender, for sure; Wright’s the better and more polished offensive player. Not sure how you get from there to Noah’s “a better all around player.” Thaddeus Young to date hasn’t been as as good as either of them. So far he looks like a classic tweener: not longe enough or tough enough on the glass to be a PF, not good enough at ballhandling or playmaking to be a great SF.
I’d give it another year or so before deciding whether we should regret taking Wright over Noah (given Noah’s solid performance last year, I’m leaning towards feeling a bit of regret, though that tends to disappear the moment I behold Noah’s grotesque visage); but I don’t think anyone should feel too bad about taking Wright over Young.
There will be no extra point!
I agree in general but
Thaddeus Young has proved that he can score in the NBA. Dude can bucket, period. He will develop into a nice starting SF in the league, I’m pretty sure of it.
Of course, minute for minute, Brandan scores more than Thaddeus while taking fewer shots to get the points.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Just was going to say the same thing as Jae. Scoring is nice, but Al Thornton can score too. And I see both Thaddeus and Al having the same impact on a game. Not much, unless they get ridiculously hot.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
yea, Al Thornton is complete garbage. I’m really not sure I’d trade George for him. If Bargnani didn’t have such an awful contract I’d probably rather have him on my team. He’s so bad he actually makes me think less of Young because I thought of them as fairly similar players going into that draft and they were picked in the same range. Obviously thats totally unfair to Young who is a much better player, but I can’t help it.
Thing A
Not seeing where this extreme level of Thornton hate is coming from. Care to elaborate?
by Missing Barry on Aug 4, 2009 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions
He’s a scorer who has terrible scoring efficiency. He can’t defend @ 3 well enough, yet his rebounding demands it. He can’t pass, either.
Thing C
Interesting. I’ll give a guy a pass on scoring efficiency after only 2 years in the league. He obviously needs to improve that area, but likely will. If his 3pt % last year was as good as his rookie year, I suspect his TS% would have been close to average. Dunno much about his D, though I thought he was long and athletic so he should at least have the capability of playing decent D? He may not be able to pass, but at least he doesn’t turn it over much, I guess. I mean, he clearly has to improve to be a good player, but worse than Devean George? That’s a bit harsh…
by Missing Barry on Aug 4, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
“If his 3pt % last year was as good as his rookie year, I suspect his TS% would have been close to average.”
I take this back, he really did not shoot many 3’s. Either way, I think it’s reasonable to expect his TS% to improve going forward.
by Missing Barry on Aug 4, 2009 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
didn’t say he was worse than Devean George, just that I’d rather have George on my team. I don’t recall George ever being upset about sitting the bench and while he isn’t very good at anything (he might still be an adequate defender) he at least plays very hard. Thornton has that Bargnani/Tim Thomas mix of talent and horrible production that convinces GMs to continue to pay him and coaches to continue to play him despite the fact that he hurts the team when he’s on the floor.
Thing A
I’ve seen Young live a few times, I like his potential. He’s long and athletic, but to be a good player in the league he’s going to have to be a 3, he’s just not even close to a good enough rebounder to play 4. At times I’ve seen flashes of what could be a decent outside game, but we’ll see if he actually works hard enough to develop it. His shooting is improving, and he doesn’t turn it over much, so we’ll see. If nothing else he should be able to play some D, shoot, and make some athletic plays on offense.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Looking At Youngs 2008-2008 Season
Young
34MPG-15.3ppg-5.0rpg-1.3spg-1.3apg-.495fg%-.341 3pt%-.735 ft%
Wright
17.6mpg-8.3ppg-4.0rpg-.528fg%-.741ft%
Looking at these stats i will actually reserve judgement on calling it a mistake to take Wright over Young. But you do have to admit those are damn solid numbers by a 2nd year player in Young. Wright’s per is 18.8 and Young’s 15.3 . Considering Young received double the playing time as Wright look at what BW stats would be if he received the same playing time
16.6ppg-8.0rpg-1.1spg-1.1bpg
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't saying Young should have been taken over Wright.
I agreed with Sleepy’s original statement that we SHOULDN’T feel too bad about doing just that, I was simply pointing out that Thaddeus Young has already proven that he can be a capable scorer in the NBA with starter’s minutes.
As far as “what BW stats would be if he received the same playing time” I’ve never been a big fan of per-minute extrapolations. There’s no way to prove that Wright’s level of play would remain consistent if he was given those kind of minutes. In reality, there would almost assuredly be a regression in FG% as well as per minute scoring and rebounding. I think a more accurate assumption of what Wright would average in 34 minutes per game would be something like 12 PPG and 7 REBs, although I may not be giving proper respect to his rebounding acumen. I think that if Wright averaged 15 PPG on 49% shooting in 34 MPG (what Young did do last year) we as Warrior fans would be ecstatic.
But don’t get me wrong, I LIKE Brandan Wright. I think he’s an immensely talented player who can contribute significantly to the Warriors. I think he can develop into that 4th big in our frontcourt rotation of AR/AB/Ronny and provide productive, quality minutes off the bench this year. I was never attempting to detract from BW, I just thought Sleepy was being a little hard on Thaddeus Young.
There’s no way to prove that Wright’s level of play would remain consistent if he was given those kind of minutes. In reality, there would almost assuredly be a regression in FG% as well as per minute scoring and rebounding.
Actually, there’s evidence to the contrary, that in many cases when a player suddenly receives more playing time (e.g. a starter is injured and the backups have to play more) per minute extrapolations actually tend to underpredict how many players do. The familiarity with other players and the ability to get into a comfort zone tends to be more beneficial than whatever fatigue factor there is. It’s unlikely that the rebound rate would regress that much because they don’t tend to change that much. Shooting percentages and scoring varies, but there’s by no means a universal pattern of them going down. Many players see increases in both scoring rates and efficiency when playing more.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds legit
I suppose my other thought is that most of BW’s minutes last season were logged against other bench players. How much does the talent of the opposition come into play? Would he perform the same against bigger, stronger, better players?
Most of Brandan’s minutes were not actually logged against backups. I calculated the average number of opposing starters on the court for all players and Brandan was not relegated to playing when the other team had a majority of their starters on the bench.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
In the 23 games BW started last year
He averaged 9 PPG and 4.3 REB per game on 48.5% shooting in 20 MPG. It’s not much more PT, but those numbers seem to say to me that as soon as his role was expanded, his per minute scoring and rebounding went down, as well as his FG%. Could that be because he was playing against the #1 PF on the other team? Or possibly pressing because he know Nellie would pull him after the first mistake?
Well
Isn’t it all a relatively small sample size? I mean, seeing as BW has only averaged 38.5 appearances per season in his first two years, those 23 games represent 30% of his total games played in the league so far, and 43% of his minutes played in the league.
When looking at it that way
I will say I was definitely wrong about the level of competition, seeing as he has played such a significant percentage of his career minutes in games he’s started. But to dismiss the regression of his numbers in the games he’s started as a result of a small sample size seems to me to be inaccurate.
If you look at the month to month variation in his statistics last year the variation from month to month is much greater than the split between starter and reserve.
There is always some normal variation. To really conclude that there’s a difference requires that the numbers be statistically significantly different than what we could reasonably often expect to see just by chance. It may be that he is actually more suited to coming off the bench and that with more playing time, his numbers drop, but we do not have enough data to know if that’s the case or if we’re just seeing the normal variation in a small sample.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Please for your sake. just stop now.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
He’s asking questions and trying to learn more, why are you discouraging this?
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks
I’m just trying to get some other perspectives on this, from people who spend even more time thinking about it than I do.
No he just obviously does not understand the variables that come into play. Either he doesn’t study our team players as much as we do. Or he isn’t that big of a fan. But one’ must understand that there are many knowlegable warrior fans on here and don’t get snippy if your not one!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions
What do you mean?
You replied to my post, but I think you’re referring to me as the anonymous “he” in your response, instead of addressing me directly. Are you saying I’m not a very big fan and not very knowledgeable? And why would that be? Because I don’t think Brandan Wright necessarily projects to an 18/10 player as a 35 minute-per-game player? When was I being snippy? If anyone was being snippy it was kenntoe in his rude response to my questions. And what are these “variables” you refer to that I don’t understand?
If anyone was being snippy it was kenntoe in his rude response to my question
Fixed. I actually did respond with a serious comment to one of your posts. It is just sometimes posters try to disprove Jae sometimes, and time and again Jae has his statistics to sometimes “destroy” other bloggers. Man that made me feel like a nerd. Thanks.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
No
It’s just that trying to argue against Jae often times leave blogger’s computers spontaneously imploding in a supernova-like-way. So much knowledge is dropped into such a tiny space that even the slightest of movements can send these elements into a frenzy resulting in KA-BOOM.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
I was just using simple math to figure out what his statistics would be with starter minutes. I am not saying that’s the statistics we would have gotten from Wright, it’s just layering it out over 34 minutes instead of 17 is all!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m leaning towards feeling a bit of regret, though that tends to disappear the moment I behold Noah’s grotesque visage)
Who was on that same college team as Noah? I remember looking at tape before the draft and thinking Noah’s the real value guy to go for on there, not that “star”? Couldn’t overlook Noah’s hustle and ball hawking game, he seemed to always be in the right place. I haven’t followed his pro career so how did it work out, does he still have the motor?
" I hear the ancient footsteps like the motion of the sea
Sometimes I turn, there's someone there, other times it's only me
I am hanging in the balance of the reality of man
Like every sparrow falling, like every grain of sand."
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 3, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Al Horford and Corey Brewer were on that Florida team as well. Horford has been rather good. Brewer has not.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Horford has been....... an underachiever statistically.
Coming out he was suppose to be a stud. He’s ok but hardly as advertised especially in the layoffs last year.
by crab dribble cocktail on Aug 3, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Horford didn’t live up to his rookie year production as a sophomore. Maybe next year we’ll really see which year was the “fluke” year.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
Am I missing something? Both years look remarkably similar to me. His rebounding tailed off a tiny bit. He was still a touch above average for a big. His shooting, shot blocking and passing improved a little bit. On balance, I think he improved slightly from his first year. He didn’t play much better as 2nd year player, but I don’t think either was different enough to consider one a fluke.
by jae on Aug 3, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh snap
STFU Kenntoe. I guess you caught me talking out of my ass. Looking at Horford’s numbers actually shows an increase in his TS%, lowering his TO rate while maintaining similar levels in points, rebound rate, and assists.
I could’ve sworn his numbers dropped, but I guess not.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
He didn’t play much better as 2nd year player, but I don’t think either was different enough to consider one a fluke.
He’s saying that if the third pick in a heavily talented draft(so they say), doesn’t really get better in his second year, and he wasn’t amazing in his first year….should you worry.
I think they shouldn’t worry because he’s better than most big man in the league already just maybe he wont be more than a 14-10 guy on 50% shooting with a mediocre mid range shot.
Better than most.
Better than Biedrins because Horford plays very good post defense….
Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan
Noah averaged only 7pppg and 6.7rpg last season. But statistics are not everything. Besides during the playoffs his minutes doubled and he went for an average of 13-13. I would say that taking Wright over Noah is somewhat of a mistake. But it’s not like drafting Todd Fuller over Kobe Bryant LOL
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Either way
You can’t have a team that fields both Biedrins and Noah. They will NEVER see the court together. Both have the same limitations and strengths in their games. Noah may be nice as a back up, but i think i’m okay with Ronny anyway.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
"It takes a special kind of anti-mojo for a team to miss the playoffs 14 out of 15 seasons. Like, say, the Warriors under Chris Cohan."
Very thought provoking post. Rec'd
Brandan Wright is a very interesting case. On one hand he hasn’t shown much in the limited playing time he’s had, but that could be attributed to very limited minutes in his rookie season and that fluke shoulder injury a year later. And despite this, I remain much more optimistic about his “potential” than his fellow ’07 first-rounder Marco.
Just as I’d say Randolph isn’t 100% untouchable, I wouldn’t say Wright is a bust just yet. He’s still got time to prove his worth and he hasn’t really been beaten out fair-and-square with regards to playing time. I’d say keep him to compete with Randolph for the PF minutes, and if a great deal comes along we shouldn’t hesitate to take it.
by WYK on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Disagree On This One
Randolph is about as untouchable as they get. He played really good down the stretch last season, obviously improved his game during the off-season, is being considered for a spot on the USA basketball team etc… The list goes on. Randolph will be a 20-12 guy sooner rather then later and that’s a player you just can’t afford to give up. There are just a handful of players i would trade Randolph for, and none of them (Lebron James, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant etc…) are available. In no way am i comparing him to those stars. But why trade Randolph for a player like Chris Bosh who is 5 years older, earns 15 million dollars more and doesn’t have the ceiling Randolph has?
Regarding Wright, he has the potential to be a 20-10 guy too, but that is later rather then sooner, and he isn’t anywhere near the lock to do so that Randolph is. That’s why if we could get an established player in the inside for him then we must look at doing it
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Again, I’m not ruling out that Randolph can become untouchable, I just think he’s still got some ways to go before we can declare him our de-facto franchise player. Though Randolph has shown considerable improvement, he still lacks consistency and still fits the “high risk, high upside” label like a glove. The risk that he doesn’t live up to his potential hasn’t disappeared yet. Would you still desperately hold on to him if he doesn’t turn into the superstar we all want him to be?
I’m applying the same mindset towards Wright. Until I see enough of him, I can’t call him a star or a bust based on a handful of games. Randolph clearly has more value at the moment since he’s shown more glimpses, though it doesn’t make Wright expendable.
by WYK on Aug 3, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you applying the same mind set or comparing the two? Because at this point i do not see much of a comparison. Randolph has lived up to his potential to day, Wright hasn’t had the chance to.
As the youngest player in the league Randolph shined in limited playing time. Consider this if Nellie would have given AR starter minutes 32-34 MPG this is what his stats would look like mathmatically
18.9PPG-12.1rpg-1.6apg-2.3bpg-1.4spg All as a rookie!
So yeah i would consider Randolph untouchable at this point. On another note, Randolph isn’t our franchise player. It’s Ellsi!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Aug 3, 2009 4:29 PM PDT reply actions
nocal:
Basketball Reference gives per 36 stats for everyone in the NBA, so you don’t have to spend your time extrapolating players’ numbers to “starter minutes.” Per 36 is the convention (a nice round fraction of 48, and a reasonable estimate of how much PT regular players get); though since it doesn’t factor in pace, you can also look at rebounding percentage, assist percentage, etc.
Not sure how you arrived at your numbers for Rudolph, but if you check his B-R page, you’ll see that you inflated them pretty significantly.
There will be no extra point!
...
OK, taking the midpoint in your “32-34 MPG” range (33 mins.), Rudolph’s actual numbers work out to 14.6 pts and 10.6 reb — quite a bit shy of your supposedly “mathmatical” 18.9 and 12.1. I admit to a degree of perverse curiosity at the methods you used to get your figures.
There will be no extra point!
Haha
Interestingly, the “awesomeness fudge factor” gets applied not infrequently on this board. A few months back, IIRC, there was a Belinelli fanboy who used Marco’s “awesome fudge factor” to prove that he was 3-4 years younger than Anthony Morrow. (Belinelli’s age * 0.83 awesomeness fudge factor = 19, presumably).
There will be no extra point!
I know that as jae has stated
that most of the time if a player gets more minutes their production will stay the same.
But it doesnt seem likely to me that Randolph would have averaged around 20 points and 12 rebounds a game in “starter minutes”.
You don’t really consider AR got into foul trouble alot and i doubt he would have played around 30-35 minutes per game due to his foul trouble.
Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan
his per 36 min numbers are more like 16 and 11.6. He averaged 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes so he probably would’ve been in foul trouble a bit, but its unlikely to keep him from averaging 30 minutes per game. He averaged fewer fouls per minute than Biedrins last season and a lot fewer than Turiaf.
Thing A
Well... didnt nocal81 say those were the stats... sorry
just read that only.
I get your point but sometimes thats misleading because as we know Biedrins comes out of the game for large portions for early fouls but then doesn’t get alot of fouls after that so his stats look like he should play more…..
Randolph should play 30 minutes a game but 35 is too much at this point. 35 is too much for almost every player on this team(yes… i am talking to you jackson).
And his per 36 probably would drop off a little bit but I think those per 36 minute numbers are about right.
Marco Belinelli's Biggest Fan
Were committed to Randolph now
The Warriors are painting him as a savior everything you’ve heard from end of season to summer league has been the Randolph show. Although I think Brandon Wright is a good player with allstar ability but for some reason( call it hype or instinct or whatever) I see Randolpg ceiling higher as in top 10 higher. I think we hang on to him unless a game changer becomes available and hes a needed piece.
Nothing wrong with having the 2 compete with each other
Especially with foul trouble concerns
Naticus
I find your new profile picture very disturbing…..
Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "Your a rookie"
ROFL… Yeah, it’s more meant to be humorous. I never wanted Kaman on our team, even though I made a post about it. But don’t be surprised, if he has a pretty good year. If that guy stays healthy, he can really help the Clippers.
I hate those normal-sized midgets. What are they called again? Oh, yeah. People.
So…is Naticus like one of those bad Natty Light beer commercials where they make up words like Naturday and Natastrophe?
Naticus-a Roman Emperor who gives the thumbs down to every beer except Natty Light.
I can see the commercial now.
My friends gave me that nickname, partly inspired by the movie 300 and maybe Gladiator. We had this goofy friend who kept bragging about being Greek, so we started saying he was probably a descendant of Ephieltes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsFcug8mugA. We nicknamed him Thrustmus. He stopped bragging about it. LOL
I hate those normal-sized midgets. What are they called again? Oh, yeah. People.
Try again...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsFcug8mugA
I hate those normal-sized midgets. What are they called again? Oh, yeah. People.
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Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)
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