What makes a basketball market "big?"

by RonG on Jan 28, 2010 10:56 AM PST

Hi all,

With the free agent movement coming up, I've heard analysts and journalists throw around the term "big market." I've often wondered why the Bay Area is not mentioned as one. We have the 6th largest population in the country, revenue is 10th, attendance is 10th, attendance percentage is 14th, and of course, the best fans in the league. (Props to the Clips for today's fan loyalty article on RealGM, but I'm not convinced... their population base is 2X+ the Bay area!)

Of course, no one needs reminding that our record is not ranked nearly as high as any of these wonderful marks. I'd wager a sustained winning tradition (over .500 for more than two seasons) would easily put us in the top two or three in any category.

I know there are some really smart fans here on GSOM. Can anyone please shed some light on what this refers to or who these "big market" teams are? I know that New York and LA are often mentioned. Could it be as simple as resident population? I sure hope not, because that is certainly a poor indicator of basketball appreciation and does little to explain the appeal of these markets to players.

Sources of info:

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I guess the biggest thing is....

New York, LA, Boston, Miami etc… are all cities….

The ‘Bay Area’ is not and as cities go…..San Francisco is actually pretty small. (How Daly City can call itself a city has always confused me….) lol

As a region it also seems to create (from an outsiders perspective), a sense of seperatism from the rest of the US. California it seems, has always felt itself to be a little special in the whole US fabric and on a simlar scale, the Bay Area itself and its population, considers itself possibly a little more special than it actually is.

But then you only have to look at these boards to realise that some people consider the Warriors an ‘Oakland’ team and thus should be called the Oakland Warriors, while others feel the team should be based in SF and yet others who feel it would be best based in San Jose….the Bay Area… ad therefore the name of ‘Golden State’ is therefore one of convenience…when in fact…each of the major Bay cities has populations which probably if truth be told, consider themselves or their area, better than their neighbours…

Whereas New York has two teams and everyone is a New Yorker, LA has two teams and everyone is a ….. well…. what would you call them.. LosAngeleans? or maybe Lunatics? ;-)

My personal belief is that for GSW to become a big market team, it would need to relocate to San Francisco and become once again… the San Francisco Warriors. If San Jose or Oakland then wanted to start their own teams, well then good luck to them.

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by BritWarriorGSW on Jan 28, 2010 11:48 AM PST reply actions

yeah, I agree

The Bay Area is the sixth largest metropolitan region in the country. But, the team has to move to San Francisco and probably rename itself “San Francisco” to get reap the full benefit of this market’s potential.

Still, I hope they say in Oakland. It’s a great location. Renaming the team “San Francisco” probably has the same effect. After all the NY Giants and Jets play in New Jersey. The Dallas Cowboys play in Arlington, etc.

by Jeremy Belvins on Jan 29, 2010 5:56 PM PST up reply actions

So, I guess

maybe I don’t completely agree. lol

by Jeremy Belvins on Jan 29, 2010 5:57 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t get what moving to SF changes, other than perceptions of people who don’t know where it’s located (which is nobody in the Bay Area market)? But how does that change anything about our actual market?

by Missing Barry on Feb 1, 2010 8:20 AM PST up reply actions

Eh, it’s mostly population, income and media coverage. As you mentioned, we have the first two, being on the West Coast hurts the third one (LA makes up for this by being huge in the first two and being a media center in terms of studios, Hollywood, and what not) since most of the population is east of the Miississippi….but our biggest problem is just that we suck, and have sucked for a long time. If the Warriors established a tradition of winning, we’d be considered a big market (and attendance/revenues would be up because of the success) when people think of the country’s large markets….but at the moment most people more or less forget we exist.

by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 12:02 PM PST reply actions

It would help with general recognition if the team was

called the San Francisco Warriors. Most casual fas would be clueless as to where the Golden Staters are? Kind of like what happened with the Angels chnaging from Anaheim to LA.

by Eschew Obfuscation on Jan 28, 2010 12:25 PM PST reply actions

Eh, I don’t think a casual fans perception of how big market a team is will really have any effect on being able to attract FA’s or anything else that’s actually basketball related…

by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions

The question was related to what makes a big market big.

Not what attracts free agents or not why any will come to the Bay.

by Eschew Obfuscation on Jan 28, 2010 1:14 PM PST up reply actions

Ok well in that case moving to a different city within the same market doesn’t change the market. Again, it’s just about the casual fans perception.

by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 2:19 PM PST up reply actions

It's East Coast Bias + Crappy Owner.

We’re not on the East Coast, we don’t have celebrities/movie studios, and we have a crappy owner.

The Bay Area region is one of the biggest markets out there, we just haven’t done squat in two decades.

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by FLAxwless on Jan 28, 2010 12:58 PM PST reply actions

The Bay Area is either one of the biggest of the small markets, or the smallest of the big markets ...

But we’re definitely hampered by east coast bias and the fact that we simply haven’t fielded a winner in so long that it’s driving revenues down.

IF the Warriors were winning a lot, TV ratings would be up, games would be selling out, merchandise would be selling, and we’d look more like a smallish big market than a biggish small one.

by Ronaldinho on Jan 28, 2010 1:54 PM PST reply actions

I think “East coast bias” is a little misleading and seems to suggest there’s not a good basis for it – in terms of things like playing on national tv, your time zone (I live on east coast time!) just doesn’t let games start at prime time out here, where the majority of the population live – so at least in an example like that, it’s not bias as much as maximizing ratings.

by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 2:21 PM PST up reply actions

our issue with attracting free agents isn't market size

Outside LA or NYC, the Bay area is just as competitive to get guys as any market. (Sure some guys prefer certain areas because it’s there home….)

The issue is ownership. Warriors management has a reputation of being incompetent. San Antonio is not particularly a better market than the Bay Area BUT everyone wants to play for the spurs because they know, Spurs=competing.

A change of ownership (for the good) will go a long way

by tafkasam on Jan 28, 2010 2:16 PM PST reply actions

Exactly, Golden State is thought of as

door mat because of COHAN. Free agents generally want to go to a winning/stable situation unless the money is that much greater elsewhere(Maggette).

by pre10d on Jan 28, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions

I mean the Warriors are located in Oakland

they get fans from SF but they aren’t an SF team. Oakland is nothing like a LA, Chicago, Miami, NYC etc.
San Francisco….maybe but it would still be hard to convince someone that playing in a sport fan lax town like SF would be worthwhile, when they can just go to a bigger city.

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by monta.da.boss on Jan 28, 2010 9:24 PM PST reply actions

The market isn’t jus the city, though. It’s the entire area, and the Bay Area is a huge market (6th largest CSA in the country). It’s not like baseball or football where two franchises are competing….everyone in the Bay is a Warriors fan. Not the biggest market, but still bigger than all but a few. The real problem is our franchise is a loser and almost always has been, whereas most of those other markets (Boston, NY, Chicago, LA) that are as big or bigger than us have traditions of winning, and good teams currently.

by Missing Barry on Jan 29, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions

Some people in the North Bay are Kings fans

by Reverend_Randy on Jan 29, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure most of the North Bay only gets Warrior games

I know that is the case for Sausalito and Marin and such, not sure about Sonoma

by randolphforpresident on Jan 29, 2010 6:12 PM PST up reply actions

Could it be as simple as resident population?

well, yes and no. It’s really about the marketing potential, endorsements revenue, etc. It takes a big city but it also takes a population base that is easy to fleece. The Yay area is not that desperate to be entertained, we’ve got lots of options that keep us from being a San Antonio or Dallas when it comes to basketball. Even when the Warriors were winning they were not the most fulfilling thing around here. Get out and check out the weather, the scenery and the culture then rank the basketball team in it’s importance to our lifestyle.
Assuming the population base is there , if the equation favors basketball more then you’ve got a “big” market. Thank goodness we don’t live in one.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 30, 2010 9:15 PM PST reply actions