Realistic Look at The Warriors Playoff Chances.
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 2:52 PM PDT
Email
Print
This is the most excited i have been as a Warriors fan since the "we believe" season. A new (and improved) coach, new logos, and of course an addition of talented players such as Dorell Wright and David Lee. However, the Western Conference is incredibly difficult and it won't be easy breaking into the top 8. If the Warriors were in the Eastern Conference the question wouldn't be if the Warriors were going to make the playoffs, but what seed would they be.
Looking at how our team stacks up against other playoff contenders, i am pleasently surprised by how i believe the Warriors would do. Golden State has improved a great deal this off-season, while teams like the Hornets, Jazz, Suns, Grizzlies, and Rockets haven't.
So Lets take a look
Teams In The Playoffs
1. Los Angeles Lakers 64-18
2. Dallas Mavericks 60-22
3. Oklahoma City Thunder 57-25
4. San Antonio Spurs 52-30
I think its safe to assume these four teams will not only make the playoff, but finish ahead of the Warriors. So this leaves four spots for what i believe to be six contenders.
5. Portland Blazers
Starting Five: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby
Top Reserves: Rudy Fernandez, Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless
Team Leaders: Roy (21.5 PPG) Camby (11.5 RPG) Miller (5.4 APG)
Projected Record: 49-33
Brandon Roy is an elite NBA player, and heads a real talented team. I like LaMarcus Aldridge a lot, and do believe that Batum will step up in his first full season as the starter. However, if may all depend on the health of Greg Oden because Marcus Camby is getting up there in age and doesn't have the offensive skills that we saw Oden have at Ohio State. Even if Oden doesn't stay healthy, this is a playoff team in my mind.
Starting Five: Chauncey Billups, Arron Afflalo, Carmelo Anthony, Al Harrington, Nene Hilario
Top Reserves: J.R. Smith, Renaldo Balkman, Chris Anderson, Ty Lawson, Kenyon Martin
Team Leaders: Anthony (28.2 PPG) Martin (9.4 RPG) Billups (5.6 APG)
Projected Record: 47-35
It all depends on whether or not Carmelo Anthony is on the team for the duration of the year. Without him this is not a playoff team. Say all you want about Anthony (Iverson II), but he is a good player.This team is real deep an i absolutely love what Ty Lawson can do for them. Additionally, it is always nice to have Kenyon Martin coming off the bench (if/when he get healthy). I am going to assume that Anthony is going to remain in a Nuggets uniform for the purposes of this thread. Therefore, they will make the playoffs
Starting Five: Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright, David Lee, Andris Biedrins
Top Reserves: Reggie Williams, Brandon Wright, Vladimir Radmanovic, Rodney Carney
Team Leaders: Ellis (25.5 PPG) Lee (11.7 RPG) Curry (5.9 APG)
Projected Record: 45-37
This team could actually surpass Denver and Portland, however, their lack of depth could be an issue. They have the "big three" in Ellis, Curry and Lee. The three of them will lead the highest scoring offensive machine in the Western Conference. Additionally, this team has more of a defensive mindset to it. Wright brings them toughness and the ability to cover other teams 2s and 3s, something we were lacking from that position in the past. I am looking for Steph Curry to take that next step and become an elite player, i think it will happen this season. The Warriors, who have not had an All-Star in like forever, may have two this season in Curry and Lee.
8. Phoenix Suns
Starting Five: Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Robin Lopez
Top Reserves: Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress, Goran Dragic
Team Leaders: Nash (16.5 PPG) Hill (5.5 RPG) Nash (11.0 APG)
Projected Record: 43-39
Where are the rebounds going to come from? How are they going to replace Staudamire? Is Nash officially over the hill? These are the questions some may have when i put the Suns into the 8th spot. But, lets be real for a second this spot could go to any of the following teams: Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies or even the Sacramento Kings. I Just think the Suns did a great job in replacing Staudamire with a combination of Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick, and Josh Childress, who all do different things for the team. Additionally, i am looking for J-Rich to step up and became the best scorer on the team.
Playoffs
1st Round
1) Lakers Over 8) Suns 4-0
5) Blazers Over 4) Spurs 4-3
7) Warriors Over 2) Mavericks 4-2
3) Thunder Over 6) Nuggets 4-2
Conference Semi-Finals
1. Lakers Over 5) Spurs 4-2
3. Thunder Over 7) Warriors 4-1
Conference Finals
1. Lakers Over 3) Thunder 4-3
NBA Finals
1. Miami Heat Over 1. Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
The Warriors still matchup real good against the Dallas Mavericks and i would love to see that series actually happen in the first round. I think that they could take it. Consequently, i am not too happy with the Thunder matchup as i see Durant schooling Warriors defenders. This is going to be a real exciting season for the new look Golden State Warriors franchise, and i think we not only make the playoffs but challenge for the 5th seed.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
166 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I am also hopeful for the future but...
I predict that the defenseless Warriors will not make the playoffs this year unless Curry dominates. I think about half way through the season we will realize that Lee has been overrated.
Coming
from someone attacking the user name and not the argument…
Is Don Nelson going to Hawaii forever now?
Coming
from someone whose name sounds delicious
by freerandolph on Oct 9, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
In what way is Lee “overrated”? So, how good do you think he’s “rated”, and how good do you think he really is?
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Lets get a winning season first perhaps
If we can trade for a dominant player with our expirings then perhaps the playoffs are possible.
it's silly to ignore the Jazz
How many times has Jerry Sloan missed the playoffs?
by Uwe Blog on Oct 9, 2010 3:54 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
btw
The answer is 3 times with the Jazz. And one of those seasons they were 42-40. Dating back to ‘88.
I’m pretty sure that they’ll be back in again, barring catastrophe.
by Uwe Blog on Oct 9, 2010 4:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree
I think the Jazz are definitely in, and Houston is definitely better than us with Yao (and maybe better without him too), and I think NO is better than us too. There are actually very few teams in the West that I feel really confident that we are better than. It really isn’t so clear that I can’t see why anyone would disagree with me, but there are too many teams that I’m not convinced we are better than for me to think we will make the playoffs.
What about injuries? What if Tim Duncan goes down, or Brandon Roy, or Yao, or Steve Nash, or Durant, etc….? Of course, it might also happen to us, but if we’re the 9th best team, there’s a lot higher probability of it happening to one out of 8 teams ahead of us than us.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Not Ignoring Them
I have them in the mix for the #8 seed. I think the loss of Boozer will hurt, and Jefferson isn’t near the player Boozer was. The Warriors have more talent than the Jazz
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 4:10 PM PDT reply actions
And
yes Sloan is a great coach, i just don’t see them being much more than a 7th or 8th seed, if that. There are going to be a whole host of teams, including the Warriors, vying for the last two playoff spots.
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 4:11 PM PDT reply actions
Didn't Realize
the logo was going to translate that large. Is it really that “big” of a deal? Pun intended!!! Saying that Portland is more of a lock than those two teams is unrealistic to say the least.
I mean really? Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitski, Brandon Haywood, Caron Butler, Tim Thomas, Tyson Chandler. Must i say more?
Additionally, it is common sense that when you are attempting to disprove an argument with negative assumption you should make an argument on behalf of you statement. “Portland is more of a lack than Dallas or SAS” doesn’t do that
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 4:51 PM PDT reply actions
Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitski, Brandon Haywood, Caron Butler, Tim Thomas, Tyson Chandler. Must i say more?
If your goal is to make a persuasive case, probably.
I think it’s reasonable to question why you think it’s so “safe” to assume Dallas will finish in the Top 4. Last season they were the worst of the eight playoff Western playoff teams in terms of point differential; and their only two really good players (Kidd and Dirk) are on the wrong side of 30 — one of them extremely so.
I’m not excusing Evanz’ one-liners, just pointing out that you’ve given equally little support for your #1-4 “safe” picks.
Otherwise, a very solid diary — big logo notwithstanding. ;-)
There will be no extra point!
Do you know what that 'reply' button is for?
It is your friend.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Oct 11, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Please
tell me why you think Portland is more of a lock? Instead of just making a blanket statement
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 4:52 PM PDT reply actions
get a copy of the Pro Basketball Prospectus for 2010-11
Their statistical projections put Portland at 55 wins and 1st in the West.
Prospectus Placing Portland Over the Lakers
shows exactly what ther net value is.
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
of course, if you actually read their comments...
The more optimistic perspective holds that the Lakers
finished last season as poorly as they did in large part
because they wrapped up the top seed in the Western
Conference early and had little incentive to play well
down the stretch. Certainly, the Lakers team we saw
for much of the postseason bore little resemblance
to the one shown by the regular-season statistics. In
particular, the Lakers were much more committed to
moving the basketball and executing their triangle offense.
Along with Fisher snapping out of a slump that
started in the 2009 postseason and extended throughout
the entire 2009-10 regular season, that made the
Lakers a much more dangerous offensive outfit.
Under Jackson, the Lakers have a well-earned reputation
for turning their effort level off and on within
games and over the course of the season. What we
might see in 2010-11 is a Lakers team that no longer
has the same margin for error during the regular season
and has to play closer to postseason level for all
82 games. Even before getting to a much-anticipated
battle with the Heat in the NBA Finals, the Lakers will
be tested—and just might see their bid for a three-peat
come to an early end.
Over-rating Dallas and San Antonio
I’ve written this before, but it’s worth repeating:
Dallas relied a tremendous amount on Jason Kidd last year, as Dirk is nowhere near as good as he was in his MVP seasons. Jason had an amazing year last year, but is a year older, and his weaknesses were revealed during the playoffs. He can no longer beat you with his speed, so you play him to take away the three and he’s useless. As teams defend him correctly and he continues to get older, they will get MUCH worse.
Chandler hasn’t played 52 games in either of the last two seasons. His rebound rate is way down from his peak. Unless he shows that the last two years were a fluke – which is possible – then you shouldn’t write him off as a top player. Marion just isn’t that good. He’s a low efficiency scorer who was made to look like a high efficiency scorer by Steve Nash. Haywood? Butler? Terry? Thomas? These are not particularly dangerous or scary players.
San Antonio has gotten old. I don’t know if you watched them much last season, but they were NOT the same team they were during their dynasty years. Last year they were holding on by their fingernails, and another year older is likely to mean another year worse.
It’s a little bizzarre to me, too, that you would pencil the lakers in for 65 wins. They only won 57 last year, and while Matt Barnes is a nice addition, their key players (Odom, Kobe, and Gasol) are all a year older and all appear to already be in decline. Seems to me that Barnes, best case scenario, helps them stave off decline.
Denver? Denver will probably be better if they trade Carmelo, well, depending on what the offers are. It’s hard to tell, of course, but some of the packages that have been thrown around would make them a much better team. He’s a good player, not a great one, and they might get “great player” return on him since everybody loves PPG.
Most Likely Denver Will Not Be Better If They Trade Anthony
One possible trade will have the Nets sending Devin Harris and Derek Favors among others to the Nuggets for Anthony. ESPN trade machine has the Nuggets losing 11 wins on this trade. Unless the Nuggets get a load from a team, i cannot say that would be better without Anthony. But, it is a valuable argument to make.
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 9, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
With the amount of talent being offered for Carmelo -
- and the fact that he’s not really one of the top ten players in the league – it seems like there’s a good chance Denver isn’t substantially worse without him.
He’s a good player. But people look at his PPG numbers and talk about him as if he were a dominant force. He’s not.
I hope Camelo ends up on the Timberwolves.
Rubio and Johnson to the Nuggets! Ha!
by Only In Fairfax on Oct 13, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Once we start age-adjusting we look even better.
Having a team of 24 year old starters will do that for you. I’d still give SAS a slight edge on us – but not DAL. Lakers and Portland still have an edge – OKC, I’m not sure about yet, but Westbrook picks up where he left off they do too.
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
You forgot about Steve Blake. I don’t think he’s starting over Fisher, but he’s a huge upgrade.
go rowand
by lincypoo i wuv u on Oct 10, 2010 5:09 AM PDT up reply actions
You’re probably right about him not starting, but he definitely should.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 10, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Is he going to be a huge upgrade? I mean, I believe Steve Blake is a much better player than Derek Fisher, and I think the evidence supports that strongly, but if all he’s doing in the Lakers triangle is standing around, taking the occasional shot, and playing some defense, will he really make much of a difference?
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Disagree on San Antonio
Thiago Splitter will be a huge addition for him. Even if he is only adjusting to NBA he’s possibly best player not in NBA last year. 25 years old 7ft, rebounds, plays defense, offensively skilled.
Him + Duncan (even @ 33) has potential to beat the Lakers. More so, they have good big ‘depth’. DeJuan Blair is a solid player who will help limit Duncan’s minutes. McDyess is effective in the role they’ll ask him to play (12-15 minutes).
More so Jefferson, should be a season adjusted to Pop (who is a tough coach to play for). Manu looks healthiest he has in a couple years, and IMO one of most underrated guards in NBA (top 5 when healthy). Parker is healthy. Hill is a very good player.
They will be slow, boring and effective as ever. But it all comes down to Splitter.
also like dallas
While they are old, they have depth. I don’t think either team are expecting there 30+ year old players to play 40 minutes a game
He was the 28th pick in the draft.
I think if he was such a sure thing he would have gone higher. Yes, obviously, San Antonio could afford to be patient with him in a way that other teams couldn’t, but that didn’t stop Minny from going after Rubio in the top 10 a couple of years later.
I agree that if Splitter ends up being good, that should seriously slow their decline. I’m just not willing to assume he’s going to be that good. He might be, but there’s a huge degree of uncertainty about him making that jump. Euro-league basketball is much less physical, and the transition is not necessarily easy.
at time of draft Rubio was thought to be for sure coming. I think it’s only cause Minnesota took him he stayed. On the contrast Splitter was not going to come to NBA for multiple years at earliest.
Again, Splitter I’m not expecting much from in terms of. But if he gives them quality big man minutes, isn’t that enough. Didn’t Boston get with in a hair of an NBA championship with an older more decrepit core? If Splitter can help limit Duncan’s minutes in regular season (along with McDyess, Blair, Bonner) to keep him fresh for playoffs what’s not to like? Manu looks healthiest he has since 2007. Parker, Hill, Jefferson aren’t old. In Jefferson’s case he’ll be more adjusted to Pops system (which was a major problem last year).
Think of it this way. If Splitter is only a 20-25 minute guy. Thats an additional 20+ minutes they are getting out of a solid 7 footer and not playing DeJuan Blair/MCDyess at center or overexerting Duncan.
Minus Duncan going down for year. They’ll make playoffs as a mid-seed but I sure wouldn’t want to face them. Not with possibly best coach in NBA, proven winners and solid depth.
You can continue to be skeptical on him, but I see no reason to believe (barring injuries) we have any chance to surpass spurs in 2010-11
What makes you think Splitter is so good?
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Every scouting report
ESPN, Yahoo, Draft sites. He’s highly rated
Most common analysis:
Obviously a high-level rotation player and likely starter whenever he decides to step foot in the NBA
But really this + development in DeJuan Blair, Jeffersons further adjustment to Pops system, and health (which so far only Duncan is a worry) theres no reason they won’t be a playoff team and more so a dangerous one.
Last year there main issues once they made playoffs, was overreliance on Duncan and lack of size inside. DeJuan Blair is nice, but when you have to play DeJuan Blair + McDyess you have no shotblocking presense. Splitter should solve this as he is again regarded as a good rim protector.
and health (which so far only Duncan is a worry)
Uh Manu and Tony Parker are very injury prone.
Your political posts are a bit like the flu, Natty: they come around every few months, they suck, everyone wishes there were a cure, but all you can do is let them run their course. Carry on if you must — I’m staying home with my vitamin C and OJ. Ciao.- Sleepy Freud
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 12, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Parker only had one bad year injury wise (last year). Manu finally got healthy in second half of last year (after a couple bad years injury wise) and was best I’ve seen him since title years.
Just saying everyone rosterbates over a young team but lets look at last years final.
Rondo (24), Allen (35), Peirce (33), Garnett (34), Perkins (26) v. Fisher (100), Kobe (31), Artest (31), Gasol (30), Odom (31)
More so you’ll find upon research more teams who win championships than not are centered around teams with focal players who are 28 to 34. That is if they have a proper roster with energetic role players.
If Splitter is a quality NBA big (projected to be, and can protect the rim, Jefferson players like he has in his career and rest stay healthy, I won’t write them off to win it all. Pop is still the best coach in NBA in my opinion, even if I hate his style of play.
They could probably use one more wing defender, though I’m sure that will come deadline time.
I will acknowledge i won’t disclude them being a mid-level seed
Tim and Tiago
Could be like Duncan and Robinson…pretty damn good!
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Gaaahh! I hate how these line-up!!
was replying to tafkasam
Disagree on San Antonio
Thiago Splitter will be a huge addition for him. Even if he is only adjusting to NBA he’s possibly best player not in NBA last year. 25 years old 7ft, rebounds, plays defense, offensively skilled.
Him + Duncan (even @ 33) has potential to beat the Lakers.
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm so excited for the season..
I just bought games tickets for tomorrows game vs Sac. That’s a fame you just can’t miss.. Curry vs Evans, and we can check out Cousins.
Tomorrow will be a real bay area sports heavy day, Giants at 1, ninners at 5, Warriors at 7.. To bad I’ll miss the Ninner game since I’ll be on the road to oracle, but I can bare to watch then lose by a field goal or get blown out again.
And yes I have a strong feeling we will make the playoffs this season
Mayb 7 or 8
Suns and JAzz are definitely quetion marks this season…
Jazz lost a lot this offseason…- Boozer, Korver nd Mathew…
Al jeff is good but his health is the issue in my opinion…so idk
Suns lost sto.. but dont forget they also lost barbosa…. plus they got a overrated hedo…..
there is no one protecting the paint… lopez is not a shot blocker…
for me… for sure the suns wont make it….
I'm not for sure that the Suns are going to make the playoffs...
But who protected the paint for them last year? Amare blocked 1 shot per game. Pretty much average for a big in the NBA. Considering his minutes, that’s not really indicative of “protecting the paint.” Frye actually is a better shot blocker on a per minute basis, and so is Lopez (who will be healthy and see more minutes this season), who’s size (much more imposing than Amare) is also a factor in protecting the paint. Loss of Amare I think actually improves their ability to protect the hoop, because he was rarely a good defender for them the past two seasons. The loss of Amundson might factor in a little more, because they don’t have as good of a shot-blocking presence off the bench, but I think it evens it with addition by subtraction by Amare.
Also, the loss of Barbosa is much smaller than it seems. He played a career low in minutes and games with Dragic and Richardson getting the lion’s share at shooting guard. Both averaged more minutes per game.
Again, not arguing for the Suns being playoff locks, just the reasons you think they took a hit.
Is Don Nelson going to Hawaii forever now?
Realistically?
If the Warriors do not make the playoffs, the season will privately be marked as a failure by Larry Riley. If they hit the fifth seed in the West, they will privately have performed as expected. More and more I’m thinking Riley knows exactly what he’s got here, and this is a deliberately a serious shot at basketball moneyball. Complete deniability, of course, and nothing to lose if it fails and the teams “only” hits .500, because publicly we call .500 a major success and everybody nods.
A fifth seed is pretty much “if this goes on” for our starters, not expecting a huge leap from anyone, just expecting them to keep playing at last year’s level but together. Realistically, there is a very good chance that they will all be better, and very little chance they will all be worse. Why realistically? Because Steph is better now than he was at the end of the season. Because Dorrel looks ready to break out. Because Monta and Dre have in the past, and it’s not realistic to assume 24 year olds are past their peaks. Because Lee has in the past, and last year was actually a down year for him in efficiency.
With only a little bit of luck, this team seriously contends for a championship, this year.
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
by Rasputin10 on Oct 9, 2010 9:11 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't think Lee had a down year in efficiency.
I think that’s his efficiency level at the volume he was taking (which shows how talented he is). It’s like Dean Oliver’s skill graphs, you know. Lee has significantly upped his volume so a drop from his ridiculous 600+ TS% seasons is expected, and he still kept it at around 59% TS% on around 19 points per 36. I’m very happy with Lee’s offense if it stays around there. I’m concerned about his defense, but as long as he isn’t terrible, and can keep his men from getting good position (he puts a lot of effort into pushing them off the block in the videos i’ve seen), he’s a terrific player. We have 2 good shotblockers around him in D Wright and Biedrins, and Monta and Steph probably will be creating havoc in the passing lanes so i think his defense is well suited for this team. Sure it would be nice to have a better defender than Biedrins, but he’s good on help side defense and that’s whats needed around Lee.
Your political posts are a bit like the flu, Natty: they come around every few months, they suck, everyone wishes there were a cure, but all you can do is let them run their course. Carry on if you must — I’m staying home with my vitamin C and OJ. Ciao.- Sleepy Freud
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 9, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
i called 5th seed a while back and am gonna stick to it..
i wouldnt be surprised if 2nd or 3rd is within possibilities as the season nears the end.. but however i do think we will as i also said take out the heat in the finals so i may be pretty much full of it but u heard it here (: warriors take out heat in the finals in 6 games. d wright goes absolutely apeshit on his old team , making them pay for giving up on him in his prime break out year.
by PIRATEWARRIOR on Oct 9, 2010 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
i do think we will as i also said take out the heat in the finals so i may be pretty much full of it
you are supersized full of it.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Oct 10, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
So basically you guys think that adding D Wright, Lee, and Biedrins
To a team increases their win total by more than 25 or more wins? I’m calling BS.
by freerandolph on Oct 11, 2010 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions
speaking for myself
I would say it’s good for about +20 wins from last season’s total (although only about +15 from the PYWINS).
Somewhere between 20 and 30
in ‘08 Monta and Dre were responsible for 25 wins, last year 5. That’s a potential +20 right there. Curry and RW were good for 11 last year – we’re at 36. dLee and dWright added another 20 – 56…. Louis added 4 to PHX…. 60.
I don’t think we’ll win 60, but high 40s isn’t a reach.
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
if healthy we would have won ten more last year.. this year we are ten to 15 better than last yrs..
by PIRATEWARRIOR on Oct 11, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly
Not sure our offseason changes add 20+ wins as compared to last season; but not having the crazy amount of injuries as we did last year might
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
They did underperform their pythagorean record by a solid amount
meaning that the 26 might be underrating the Curry-Ellis-Morrow-Maggette-Tolliver lineup that we saw for most of the season.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 11, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
5-15 to be exact
If you assume they “should have” won half of the close games, their record would’ve matched the PYWIN.
I'm more than fine with Biedrens
As you know, he’s one of our two current “star points” (.200 or better wp48) that make us a (paper) contender. But if he and Lee get anywhere near their already-logged best, they’re both worth “super-star points” (.300 or better wp48). If dWright and Curry get any better – almost literally at all – they’ll each move into “star-point” territory. If it happens all at once, that would give us 6 “star-points” – and make us a legitimate top-four team.
At 27 and with above-average players around him, it’s also reasonable that Amundson could bump his efficiency up 5% – and that would put him into star territory. Like Lou, Brandan only needs to improve his efficiency by 5% (and stay healthy) to hit star level.
If Monta plays like a couple of years ago, he’s a very good player – not quite a star, but very good. And there’s a fairly good chance he can be even better, with four good players he trusts starting around him, and being the magic age of 24.
So if you’re right, and all it takes is dropping Lee’s offense back a little to improve his wp48 above .300, I’m good with that. We’ve got the firepower to spread it around. (See: where does dWright get his points?) And it matters, it seems, what percent of your team’s wp48 is in which position (First second third, not point wing big.)
I guess my point is that we could have (based on WP48) top-10 players at all 5 positions. David Lee has demonstrated the ability to be the top PF in wp48. Dre has demonstrated the ability to be the #5 center. Monta has demonstrated the ability to be the #7 SG. dWright was the #9 SF last year (Reggie was #19). Curry was the #13 PG. Lou was #12 on PF. If Brandan is healthy and gets his minutes, he’d project to be around 11-14 on the forward lists. We might go 8 deep in top-20 players by position right now. And they’re all 27 or under – coming into or right smack in the middle of their prime playing years.
Defensively Lee is not good, no. But the team defense looks to be substantially better, and most nights we’ll put a better team on the floor than they will, all night long. Almost half the time, each of our top 3 subs will be as good as or better than our opponent’s starting counterpart. Usually, that’s enough.
BTW,Steph’s issues with Gordon were in part caused by Rad’s defensive breakdowns. (I spent a lot of time watching RadNGad defensively. Rad is hopeless. Gad gets moved around a bit, but he’s got pretty good fundamentals, and he wants to contribute. Rad wants to contribute, too, but…..)
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
If it happens all at once, that would give us 6 "star-points" – and make us a legitimate top-four team.
On paper. We still have match-up problems, and our bench is starting to look pretty weak at our key positions (PG and C)
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
yep, on paper
The backup point is ok if we actually do a Steph+Monta, assuming Monta plays anywhere near the level he has in the first three games, and RW gets 20+ minutes at the 2. It’s a big assumption. Center has the same issue – we do have two good centers, even if we want Lee at PF. The question here is can we get 48+ minutes a game at both forwards through some combination of Amundson/bWright/Carney/Adrien/Rad/Gadz.
So something like:
Curry – 33
Ellis – 33
Lee – 30
Biedrins – 30
dWright – 30
Williams – 25
Amundson – 20
Carney – 15
bWright/Rad – 12
Adrien/Udoh – 7
Lin – 5
-——————————————————————
Ten deep, no one gets too many minutes, PG & SF covered (mebbe), Center / PF / and SG well covered.
If we have either Monta or Steph and either Lee or Dre on the floor at all times (And all of them on the floor together for a quarter or so) our matchup problems are likely really minor compared to our opponents,
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
I Just think the Suns did a great job in replacing Staudamire with a combination of Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick, and Josh Childress,
Couldn’t say it better myself ;)
Nice post.
Your political posts are a bit like the flu, Natty: they come around every few months, they suck, everyone wishes there were a cure, but all you can do is let them run their course. Carry on if you must — I’m staying home with my vitamin C and OJ. Ciao.- Sleepy Freud
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 9, 2010 9:29 PM PDT reply actions
Ok you guys...
Most of you guys here on this post are being kind of homerish, but, mostly, underrating our obstacles and our opponents that need to be crossed in order to make the postseason.
Let’s talk about these teams that we are underrating a bit…
SA Spurs – OK, fine, I will agree with the general consensus of this team: It is getting a bit old. With franchise cornerstones Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili becoming less potent season by season, the Spurs aren’t going to be the team of the past. We know that. BUT, they do have a couple of things going for them….such as TIAGO SPLITTER, the Brazilian star who just hopped into the NBA after some really good international play. This guy is not quite the beast Tim Duncan was… but he is pretty damn close. During drafts, he was rated among the best players, but due to the fact that he plays International ball, he fell to the Spurs late in the first round. You also have to look at Ian Mahinmi, who has been coming in and out of the D-League but is steadily improving to become a very good big man. Suddenly when you add DeJuan Blair to the equation, the Spurs look like a team that could win 50-55 games this season… and with Gregg Popovich at the helm, you know he will be pushing his players to get there.
Dallas Mavericks – OK guys…. the Dallas Mavericks, as bad as they are in the playoffs, are BUILT to win during the regular season. Remember last season, when the Mavs just completed that Josh Howard trade with Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood being the main pieces coming back? After that trade, the Mavs were SO DAMN potent during the rest of the regular season… I remember a stretch of games when nobody could really touch them…to say that the Warriors could be better than this team when they have SO MUCH DEPTH (barring injury of course)…. is really overlooking some obstacles. The Mavs were built to win in the regular season… and it doesn’t matter how much you fail in the playoffs…since most of you seem to be getting your “Mavs suck” argument from there. Getting to the playoffs ONLY depends on the regular season… and the Mavs have the potency, the depth, and the talent to get to 50-60 wins.
Utah Jazz – Jerry Sloan, Jerry Sloan, and Jerry Sloan. If Jerry Sloan wasn’t the coach of the Utah Jazz, you guys would be giving a good argument as to why the Jazz may not have the playoffs this upcoming season. But guess who is the mastermind behind what the Jazz do? Jerry Sloan. Which is exactly why the Jazz sneak into the postseason this year. You guys are overrating the loss of Carlos Boozer way too much. Boozer, while he was Sloan’s typical pick and roll guy, can be replaced relatively easier than most star players in the NBA. Deron Williams is proving again and again that he belongs in the upper-echelon of point guards this year…and you guys…we all know that Al Jefferson wasn’t a very good player with the Wolves…but who said D-Will can’t make him better. I remember him being a really good scorer…and D-Will can bring that out a little more with pick-n-roll and also just setting him up in the post. Will the Jazz get far in the playoffs? Probably not. Will they get into the postseason? Yes. Come on guys…give Deron Williams a bit of love… he deserves it. Prediction: 44-50 wins.
NOLA Hornets – In recent years past, the Hornets were branded as a team to just look past…and deservedly so. Although they had superstar point guard Chris Paul and All-Star power forward David West, they really did not have much else in the perimeter nor in the paint as they failed to reach the postseason last year. But while they were going through tough times… they found two draft picks who could possibly be very good for them: Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. Darren Collison — we all know how good this kid got when Chris Paul went down with an injury. You could have put him up there with Steph Curry and Tyreke Evans… he was that good you guys. and Marcus Thornton….very, very good perimeter player. I like him a lot… he was a very good player in garbage time for the Hornets. And also… don’t forget about their new addition, Trevor Ariza. For years now, the Hornets have been lacking that perimeter scorer that can hit a spot-up jump shot and help out Chris Paul a bit. Trevor Ariza can do just that. He is not a superstar, but he is a very good role player and I think he will fill it in quite well. So, the big question: Are the Hornets better than the Warriors? I believe that we can answer this question as the season goes on and it starts to become obvious who is the better team. But right now… I give a slight edge to the Hornets.
Very short descriptions coming I’m getting tired…
LA Clippers – This team is put up among the sleepers EVERY YEAR since BD dropped in… but they have disappointed everytime, coming up with worse records thant the Warriors. BUT, this year is a bit different. THIS YEAR, Blake Griffin is back, and the Clippers look fresh. Griffin is not your ordinary rookie… he is the kind of guy who can contribute at a very high level… and if he can do that as young as he is…. he can help the Clippers a lot now… and in the future. So playoffs this year for the Clips… I say no. But like last years’ Houston Rockets, they are a team to really watch out for.
which brings us to our next team…
Houston Rockets – Yao Ming is back. In limited minutes, of course, but he is still back. His mere presence may stimulate the Rockets’ performance, it may not… but one thing for sure is the Rockets have really good players in Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. Aaron Brooks came on to the scene a couple of years ago in the playoffs when he absolutely baffled the Lakers and stretched the series to 7 games. He proved yet again that he is a good player last season, and will probably do this yet again this season. But the main guy on the rockets is probably Luis Scola. That guy can flat out score in the post and play some good defense. Pau Gasol and him have the ability to score in the post with such grace… don’t get me wrong Luis Scola is one of my least favorite players (along with Manu Ginobili for obvious reasons…) but you cannot deny the fact that he is a borderline All-star. So will the Rockets make the playoffs this year. …..it’s going to be tough. But with Rick Adelman at the helm… he will work to try and get the Rockets there.
So they are some overlooked obstacles for you. Can the Warriors make the playoffs? Sure, they can. With a lot of hard work and a lot of luck, they can definitely go to the postseason. But to say that they are better than some teams while leaving some teams completely out of the picture… is just being unfair and biased. as GSoM-ers usually are. But whether the Warriors make or don’t make the playoffs… one things for sure… and thats that they will grow A LOT this year. They will learn from their mistakes, learn to play defense, learn to play team basketball, learn how to win close games as the season goes on… and thats something you GSoMers should be proud of. Making the playoffs isn’t everything… but making steady progression towards that goal?
Now that’s something.
by GPRawr on Oct 10, 2010 7:15 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Team-by-team breakdowns
SAS: How good is Splitter? You call him a small step down from Duncan, but that’s an incredibly optimistic. Very few Euros have come into the league and been that good. Yeah, Gasol is great. After, who’s the next-best European big man? Divac? And after that, who?
In other words, if he’s the third-best European big man to make the jump to the NBA in history … he’s not anything special, and nowhere near Tim Duncan. You can spell his name in ALL CAPS all you want, but the fact is there’s no reason to pencil him in as being that good. A lot of Europeans struggle with the physical, athletic nature of NBA play. Let’s see if the same can be said of him.
Mavs – What does “built for the regular season” even mean. Having depth doesn’t matter very much unless the players you have are actually good. And, again, the problem here is Kidd. They were bad in the playoffs last year because Kidd sucked. There were good int he regular season because Kidd was among the best PGs in the league. They are extremely dependent on him, and he’s smoke-and-mirrors at this point. Expecting another season as good as last year from Kidd seems kind of crazy, all things considered. Haywood and Butler don’t come CLOSE to making up for that.
Utah Jazz – Jerry Sloan? Do you understand how overrated coaching is in the NBA. Jerry Sloan has won when he’s had good players. When he hasn’t had good players, he’s been downright mediocre. The big advantage Jerry Sloan has had can be read on his rosters: Stockton, Malone, Boozer, Kirilenko, Williams. Show me an example of a team where Utah vastly outperformed its talent level … it’s pretty hard to do.
NOH – Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. West is good, but a bit overrated. He’s a poor rebounder and a mediocre defender. He’s not actually a very good scorer, either: good volume at average or slightly-below-average efficiency. Calling him an “all-star” doesn’t mean anything. He scores a lot, so me must be good, right? Nope. Obviously, any team with Chris Paul is dangerous.
Clippers: Blake does appear to be very, very good. Which means that they have one very, very good player. That does not make them a good team.
Ditto the Rockets. Yao is back, but he might be a disruptive force as much as a positive one. They have to totally change the way they play with him in the game, meaning that half a Yao may be worse than a full Yao. Yao, when fully healthy, is a very good half-court player. The rest of the team is an uptempo team. That’s not a match made in heaven.
by Ronaldinho on Oct 10, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
ditto
especially with clippers and sas
by bimmercirem3 on Oct 10, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Chone projects Splitter as a 4 WARP player as a rookie.
Your political posts are a bit like the flu, Natty: they come around every few months, they suck, everyone wishes there were a cure, but all you can do is let them run their course. Carry on if you must — I’m staying home with my vitamin C and OJ. Ciao.- Sleepy Freud
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 10, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Aimed mainly at Ronaldinho
SAS: I don’t know how good splitter is, but unless Duncan and Manu and Parker and the very decent supporting cast got a lot worse over the offseason, the Spurs are still a 50 win team. There is no way the Dubs are going to do better than this talented, disciplined, defensively strong (!!!!!) team, which has built a lot of chemistry over the years.
MAVS: “Built for the regular season” means that the construct of their team makes them win a lot of games during the regular season, which they have proved to be extremely successful in… Kidd is getting older, but even without him, the Mavs have a standout rookie from last year, a former MVP who is still one of the best in the league, Terry, Butler, Marion, and Haywood who are a good supporting cast. This team is better than the Dubs, hands down.
JAZZ: Yeah, Sloan and Utah win when they have talent, and they have talent this year… Boozer has been replaced. For sure a downgrade, but not worth more than a few games, and who knows how D Will might be able to make up for the loss. Even before they got Jefferson, the Boozer’s backup was not playing much worse than Boozer. Jazz won’t be much worse than last year. Better than the Dubs.
ROCKETS: (Sorry I can’t wait to do this one any longer) How could adding a dominant center to any team, let alone one that already plays at a slow defensive oriented pace, ever be more disruptive than good??
OKC: I do think West is overrated, but unfortunately his game kinda reminds me of Lee’s… Truthfully I think we are overratting Lee at the moment too. I think the Dubs and NO are fairly evenly matched and similarly talented teams. I still might choose OKC in a game with us simply because CP3 would be the most dominant player on the court.
CLIPS: I think you’re underrating the impact of a dominant low post presence. In fact the addition of one is cause people to think the Dubs are going to win double the amount of games than they won a season ago. Also There is a lot of young potential on the Clips. Young potential usually doesn’t ever turn into anything, but sometimes it does, and if it happens to come together in this case, the rest of the league will be very scared. Clips will likely be worse than the Dubs.
by freerandolph on Oct 11, 2010 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
NOH: I do think West is overrated, but unfortunately his game kinda reminds me of Lee’s
You know, without the the efficiency and rebounding.
In fact the addition of one is cause people to think the Dubs are going to win double the amount of games than they won a season ago
It’s also the fact that we’re replacing a small forward with a power forward and replacing a d-league caliber center with a starting caliber center. And also the addition of a do-it-all small forward. Monta also appears to be buying back in to the team.
So it isn’t just DLee, but all of this combined. We added A LOT of talent over the lineup we fielded last season.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 11, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know how good splitter is, but unless Duncan and Manu and Parker and the very decent supporting cast got a lot worse over the offseason, the Spurs are still a 50 win team.
They were a 50-win-team last year.
They don’t have to have gotten “a lot” worse to no longer be a 50-win team. If they got any worse they’re not a 50-win team. Their ability to be a 50-win-team depends on them not being any worse at all.
So you don’t have to expect some giant falloff for them to not be that good. YOu just have to expect any falloff at all. So when you say they’re still a 50-win team, what you’re saying is that they haven’t declined at all from last year.
Is that a reasonable thing to say?
the Mavs have a standout rookie from last year, a former MVP who is still one of the best in the league
No, they don’t.
Dirk has declined severely. No, his PPG hasn’t dropped, which means that people who don’t actually understand what great play looks like don’t realize that he’s slipped.
But his rebounding is down substantially from his MVP season – he’s no longer an adequate rebounder for a 4. And his shooting efficiency has also dropped, from being outstanding to being merely good.
This doesn’t make Dirk a bad player. He’s still a good player. But he WAS a great player, and he’s not anymore. The difference between MVP-Dirk and last-year’s Dirk is about a Steph Curry in terms of wins.
You don’t see the fact that he’s fallen off a cliff in terms of production because he still scores a lot. Look deeper. He is no longer once of the best in the league. He’s not ever particularly close.
For sure a downgrade, but not worth more than a few games, and who knows how D Will might be able to make up for the loss. Even before they got Jefferson, the Boozer’s backup was not playing much worse than Boozer. Jazz won’t be much worse than last year.
Boozer’s backup was a good player, but nowhere near as good as Boozer. Jefferson is not an adequate replacement. (By WP they lost 16 wins in Boozer, gained 7.5 in Jefferson. Milsap played 2270 minutes last year, so it’s not like he’s going to see a huge increase in his numbers. (Realistically maybe anotr 300 or so, which, at his level of production, adds less than one win.
Rockets:
You ask how adding a good player can be disruptive to a team, and I simply say this: look at Utah’s record with and without Yao over the last couple of seasons. There have been multiple stretches when they’ve been a better team without him.
OKC: Let’s compare West and Lee:
WHo scores more points: Lee
Who scores with higher efficiency: Lee (in a landslide)
Who rebounds better: Lee (in a landslide)
I’m not crazy about Lee’s defense, and think it’s possible that we’re overrating him slightly. But however good you think Lee is, there’s one thing that should be really obvious: he’s a hell of a lot better than West.
Paul is better than anyone on the Warriors. If you ranked the team’s rotation players in quality from 1-8 we’re better at positions 2 through 8, often by a lot.
In fact the addition of one is cause people to think the Dubs are going to win double the amount of games than they won a season ago.
Not really. I think it’s just as much about Biedrins being healthy, Monta having the right attitude, and Curry contining to improve, and Dorell being a diamond in the rough.
If Blake ends up better than Lee, the Clippers are going to be competitive in every game. But again, even if he’s better than our best player, the rest of our rotation matches up really well against the rest of their rotation.
ROCKETS: (Sorry I can’t wait to do this one any longer) How could adding a dominant center to any team, let alone one that already plays at a slow defensive oriented pace, ever be more disruptive than good??
Lets add Kevin Martin fitting in better, Chase Budinger developing, Jordan Hill looks better (excellent preseason, and he won’t be asked to do much more than energy big man minutes).
This team won 42 games last year and people think they won’t improve? They should push 50 wins or beyond.
"Clips will likely be worse than the Dubs".
I would not bet the farm on that if Griffen stays healthy.
by Only In Fairfax on Oct 13, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I like Blake a lot, but what else does that team have?
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I like Blake a lot, but what else does that team have?
14 more players?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Oct 13, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I assume that this is not a Star Trek reference
Chone projects Splitter as a 4 WARP player as a rookie.
er…sorry, but can you translate. Is this good or bad?
and, thanks
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
After, who’s the next-best European big man?
Sabonis was better than Divac, don’t you think? Biedrins is probably better, too, when he’s healthy.
I'm not sure Sabonis was better by the time he got to the NBA.
Sabonis couldn’t move very well by the time he came over here. A shame, really, because it would have been great to see him in his prime going up against NBA players.
Because in his prime he was really good. But in his prime he wasn’t in the NBA.
No he wasn't,
and Duckworth was. It might have cost Portland a championship.
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
well, I don't have the WP numbers
but the first 5 years Sabonis came over to the NBA, his WS48 (win shares/48) was always above 0.200. Divac never had a single season above 0.200. If I recall correctly, and obviously it was a while ago, Sabonis was better defensively than Divac, even though he was an “old man”. Sabonis was huge.
After, who’s the next-best European big man?
Dirk?
"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh
by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough, but I don't really consider him a big man.
That’s not exactly fair to him, but he’s a weird hybrid player of the type Europe seems to produce a lot of – tall guys with games suited to smaller players. Toni Kukoc is another example of that.
Dirk sort of exemplifies the problems a lot of Euros bigs have. In Europe, you don’t get punished for having a tall 3 playing PF forward you. In the NBA, you do.
If Splitter can handle the physical and athletic nature of the NBA game, he should be very good. But I don’t see how that’s a given.
SAS: How good is Splitter? You call him a small step down from Duncan, but that’s an incredibly optimistic. Very few Euros have come into the league and been that good. Yeah, Gasol is great. After, who’s the next-best European big man? Divac? And after that, who?
Scola? If he has anything near a scola-like impact (in a 7ft body) next to Duncan he is good for an additional 5 wins to San Antonio and makes them VERY dangerous in playoffs if healthy
i guess its the street baller in me that makes me over confident..
i dont care who i play (well used to im 38 now and my ankles are shot) i always felt i can take on anybody and was not intimidated even when college players or ex nba players would be out there and play with us.. so, i tend to look at this beginning as a blank slate and feel like we can beat the lakers, we can beat dallas, we can beat the spurs, the thunder, the blazers we can beat any team in the league. miami maybe tough tho lol. but on any givin night i think we can beat these teams and at one point during the season will beat them all (except miami, i dont even know if we play them). we have a great 3 and 4 position starters for once. our 1 and 2 and 5 aint half bad either. my mindset is that we will win every night we play. of course we will lose and i wont always be right but the fan in me makes me feel like that.
I remember when I was the only guy on here saying we’ll be in the playoffs. Now that optimism is spreading like a wildfire. Now I have guys with me who will debate our chances of making it in. I was alone now im 1 of many.
The difference between what you did and this post
is the word “realistic.”
I think we’ll be good and have a shot at the playoffs and that has been my stance all along. We aren’t a lock. There are a few teams in our class that also have a chance to make the playoffs.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 10, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Did You Not Notice
I had the Warriors as the #7 seed right? This means that they are not a lock to make the playoffs. If things work their way, we could start using the word “lock” around mid season, if not that word will be completely useless.
Key Factors
1. Stay Healthy (We cannot lead the world in injuries again)
2. Continued Progression of Steph Curry as an NBA superstar
3. Renewed emphasis on a team defensive scheme.
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 10, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I was specifically talking to J Ridah in my post
not really commenting on what you did. Your observations are a lot more in-line with what you wrote. I think we could be as high as a 6th seed or miss the playoffs altogether.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 10, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
With the teams “on the cusp” like us ie:Sac/Clips/Hornets etc. it will probably come down to the timing and amount of particular injuries to key players that affect particular wins/losses. True now in the “we believe” 2 years.
by Only In Fairfax on Oct 13, 2010 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
as in the “we believe era” I meant.
by Only In Fairfax on Oct 13, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't really think that the Clips or Kings are on the cusp
Hornets, Rockets are my main cusp teams.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 13, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Revelation you must have.
for defending my argument somewhat…. again are we saying that it is impossible for the Warriors to make the playoffs… no we aren’t. We have seen many cinderella stories who were underrated at the beginning of the NBA season and ended up being in the playoffs and sometimes becoming NBA Champions (1975 Golden State Warriors).
BUT the point is you guys are banking way too much on the Warriors playoff hopes. You guys are banking too much on teams getting worse, players getting old/worse, team’s losing key players to free agency, etc. The fact is that… we don’t know how much this is going to take a toll on the regular season and how it pans out.
If NO team were to have NO injuries during the regular season, the Warriors will not make the playoffs. That’s an extremely improbable scenario of course.. but I think you guys are praying in your minds that what you are posting is actually true and someone doesn’t come out of the blue to ruin everything (which happens almost every season which is why they have the MIP award).
The main thing for the Warriors this year is to IMPROVE. GET BETTER EVERY DAY. It’s an 82 game season. Let’s learn something every game. Let’s learn how to win a close game, let’s learn how to contain top-notch offensive players. When the defense breaks down, lets all learn how to help out. On offense, lets learn some ball movement in the half court, lets have some cutting going around, lets reduce the number of isolations and base all our plays on created open shots (unless situation calls for otherwise). Lets learn how to win on the road in a hostile environment. Let’s learn how to get along on and off the court. Let’s learn how to beat a tough team. Let’s learn how to beat teams we are supposed to beat. Let’s learn how to protect the ball and reduce turnovers. Let’s learn how to rebound the ball and give the offense multiple opportunities.
So many things to learn. But the Warriors can do it if they set their mind to it.
If you set a goal like playoffs without looking at these little things…being a developing team that we are… it’s difficult to get to that big goal.
Remember OKC and Portland. The years that they had mediocre seasons… this is EXACTLY what they were doing. They were doing all the little things to improve and get better… and when the time came that they mastered these skills… they went out and owned the league. The Warriors learning curve starts THIS YEAR, could have been last year… but due to circumstances we shall start this year. That’s alright.
These are all things the Dubs MUST learn. If they learn how to do these things before the regular season… they’ll for sure be in the playoff race. You don’t have to ask for playoffs then. The playoffs will come to you.
I used to be just like you guys. Predicting playoffs every year and going into the season saying this is our year. Ever since WE BELIEVE, people still haven’t gotten over this hump. This is now the WE FRESH era, lets start out FRESH.
and lets go get it.
Agree. For my reasoning its improving/jelling as a team this year.
The adding a key player or 2 for next season and beyond.
by Only In Fairfax on Oct 13, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Wow, some delusional homerism here no doubt
Hey, it’s pre-season and hope springs eternal.
The Warriors like my Kings should be trying to play .500 ball for now and see where that leads. There is a chance of 45-46 wins getting the 8th seed this year (maybe) but you need depth to get through a long NBA season. The Warriors gave up most of it’s depth to get D Lee.
It’s vain hope to think that there are more than two potential playoff spots open. Perhaps Denver if Carmello is gone and I think PHX has to fight for that 7th-8th spot.
I’m guessingf there will be a big cluster of teams fighting for those last few spots as the Clips should be better (but hey, they are the Clips), PHx will be in there, Memphis was/is more or less a .500 team as was Houston, Kings will also be better.
More parity.
This means fewer teams to pick on for easy wins, this means you need depth.
But Houston with reasonable health I think takes one of those spots that (may) open up.
That Maaaybe leaves the 8th spot, but increasing by 20 wins? That ain’t easy or likely.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
That Maaaybe leaves the 8th spot, but increasing by 20 wins? That ain’t easy or likely.
Just out of curiosity, without looking it up, can you tell me how many of our top 8 players in terms of minutes are returning this season?
How many of those players are being replaced by someone who is clearly better than them?
Of the players on that list who aren’t being replaced, would a reasonable person think those players were going to be better, worse, or about the same this year?
It doesn’t make sense to use last year’s team as a point of reference for how good this year’s team should be. They are not the same team.
by Ronaldinho on Oct 11, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
We’re not like your Kings at all. We just added a very good player in David Lee. You have done nothing of the sorts. We just got another one of our best players coming back from essentially a lost season due to injury. Again, you have nothing similar to that. Last year we did as poorly as we did because of a combination of bad luck and injuries. Increasing by 20 wins, while it might not be easy or likely for the average team, isn’t too out of the question for us, because we have many of the circumstances teams go through when they increase by 20 wins – mainly better health, and significantly adding talent.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
We just added a very good player in David Lee. You have done nothing of the sorts.
remember they added Dalembert
Sac has a nice core IMO
They are clearly following Portland/OKC model of not tying to contracts and trying to stockpile youth see what works.
I like there front court. Jason Thompson has looked better (but at worse a good rotation big). Carl Landry is a solid PF, DeMarcus Cousins is obviously there big hope at a future all star, Damelbert is an excellent rotation center. Hassan Whiteside, 7 footer, low risk high upside. 5 bigs. Good healthy mix of experience and potential.
Still clearly a team for the future
Lee is much, much, much better than Dalembert.
And hey, I like Dalembert.
Dalembert is a lot like Biedrins, maybe a little better defensively but a little worse offensively. So whenthe Kings say they’re adding a Dalembert-level payer compared to last year, you know what?
We are, too. We’re adding Biedrins, who we essentially didn’t have at all last year.
And then we’re adding Lee ON TOP OF that.
my reply was to MB
who was implying that the Kings hadn’t added any good players (“You have done nothing of the sorts.”). Clearly, they did add a good player. A very good player, actually. Just wanted to make that point.
And then we’re adding Lee ON TOP OF that.
but keep in mind Lee is all downside from here and Cuz is all upside so 3 years from now things might look a lot different?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Oct 12, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Increasing by 20 wins, while it might not be easy or likely for the average team, isn’t too out of the question for us,
So basically for this to happen we need
1. Health (which is a given, but for us, shouldn’t be ignored as an obvious)
2. Curry continues development (so far I’m still seeing mass turnovers)
3. Biedrins returns to his form (he seems to be)
4. Monta returns to 2007/8 play (Hes definitely looking better than 09/10 i’d settle for somewhere in middle of the two years tbh)
5. Lee continues to do what he’s done
6. Wright can be a defensive stopper and a fair match up defensively on the elite wings. (this will also contribute to Monta efficiency on offense because he won’t have to exert as much on D)
All that makes me optimistic to see a large improvement. Still 20 game improvement is gigantic. It’s not that team can;t be better but pick out 20 games to win… Wins v. playoff teams… hmm
I don’t think we need an unusual amount of health. Just avoid big injuries to our best players, which is “more likely” as opposed to “less likely”. I also think if Curry just maintains how he played at the end of the season, that improvement alone will be fairly big. I expect Biedrins to return to form and Monta to at least play more like 07-08, even if he’s not all the way there. I don’t think those are very uncertain. I think Lee continuing to do what he’s done is very close to certain. Wright is more of a question mark, but I don’t think we necessarily need him to be excellent to add on 20 wins. So not a sure thing by any means, but I think the chances of us improving by ~20 wins are pretty likely. Also keep in mind that we had a pythag record of 32 wins last year, so depending on how much stock you give that, we could have ~6 extra wins just from neutral luck as opposed to bad luck.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
. I don’t think those are very uncertain.
They are. Those are all best case scenerio situations. It’s not impossible but at same time you can’t predict other teams will decline while all our players won’t
Why do you think they are? Just to be clear, I think of everything in probabilities – I’m not assigning a 100% probability to anything, but I see them as both high probability events. In Monta’s case, we have other guys that can play offense, and he knows it and has spoken about it multiple times. I don’t know exactly how much less of a role he’ll take, but he will take a smaller one. As for Biedrins – well, we have a pretty large sample where he played well that gives us a pretty good idea of his talent level. We have a small sample, where we know he was hurt, where he played worse. At his age, guys don’t just lose skills. I think it’s a very high likelihood he plays like he did before. What about either of those is very uncertain?
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I think although our team looks to be gelling now, we are bringing in a lot of new players and there are bound to be chemistry issues early. Smart is a first time coach, and I don’t have faith in him, I can see a lot of close losses early in games perhaps next season we will win with more experience (you know exactly type of games I mean)
For Biedrins, 2 years now has missed 20+ games. If he misses 20 games again, we have problems.
I think we’ll be much improved, I’m quietly optimistic, but I still see an incredibly tough west.
I guess my skepticism to being a +.500 team is mainly due to growing pains of a new roster and Keith Smart (and possibly a Biedrins injury, i shudder to think of Gadzuric starting or a vladrad/dlee front court)
I actually think we're okay if Beans missing 20 games this year.
Obviously, it’s not ideal. But we now have adequate bigs without him in Lee, Wright, and Amundson. That’s why the Amundson singing was so important.
by Ronaldinho on Oct 12, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You think Lou + DLee can hold up to west?
Thats awfully short. Wright is hardly a proven commodity. If he does what I think he can, i’ll feel ok.
I mean going with 2 6-9 guys for periods is ok, but we won’t win many games v. teams in west who have multiple 7ft’ers for 48 minutes like that.
Infact Lou is only 6-8 with a 6-11 wingspan. 8-7.5 standing reach… not good if it’s him + lee for 48 mins
What teams are we worried about, other than the Lakers? I guess the Spurs with Duncan/Splitter? Anyone else?
Good call with Amudson, I hadn’t checked out his physical measurements. Pretty unimpressive. He must be a pretty good athlete to make up for that.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Running down west
Lakers
Portland
Denver
Houston
Memphis
Sac
I mean almost all teams in west we’d struggle with two bigs that short for extended periods.
Who are these double 7 footers we’re talking about in any of those cases? I mean, I’m really not worried about the potential mismatch Samuel Dalembert or Marcus Camby or Nene pose because of their height advantage….
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, sure.
But if you really want size, we have Gadz.
Remember that we’re talking about the scenario if one of our bigs goes down here.
Complaining because you only have unproven guys who looked good in their limited minutes like Amundson and Wright when one of your starts goes down strikes me as something of a high-quality problem.
YOu ask if Lou and Lee can be enough, but the point is that they don’t have to be enough unless both Biedrins and Wright can’t go. How many teams in the league are 100% happy with the big men they have available if they lose their starting center and one of their top two backup bigs.
Heck, I suspect that there are very few teams from which you can substract one starting big man, one of the first two bigs off the bench, and feel like you’ve got players as good as Lee, Amundson, and Gadz still going.
I mean, heck, if Monta and Reggie both go down, we’re pretty short at the two, aren’t we? One doesn’t worry too much about those situations.
Still 20 game improvement is gigantic
but we’re coming from a very low benchmark and 20 more wins still wouldn’t get us up to our 08 wins plateau. An “average” team should win 41 games so 20 more than last year would be just 5 games above average.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Oct 12, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree people are a bit overly optimistic here but…
The Warriors gave up most of it’s depth to get D Lee.
This I don’t agree on, atleast in terms of front court. Backups:
Lou (on par with Ronny)
BWright (should do more than BWright last year)
Gadzuric (new Mikki Moore)
Vlad rad was here last year
Udoh (compared to devean george at PF)
same depth, possibly more quality if Wright and VladRad stays healthy, Udoh shows anything.
Whither Azubuike, Morrow, and CJ? Those three are vastly better than Carney, Bell and Lin.
I think it’s fair to say we’re less deep than we would have been had we stood totally pat this offseason.
Of course, I think the massive upgrades at the two starting forward spots (DWright/Lee >>> Maggette/Randolph) are almost certainly worth the drop-off in overall depth.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the massive upgrades at the two starting forward spots (DWright/Lee >>> Maggette/Randolph) are almost certainly worth the drop-off in overall depth.
yeah , it’s better to distill your talent to the highest level. If Rudolf breaks out in a couple of years we may wish we’d held pat but for this year we should be happy especially if Dre is healthy and motivated and Montay can find some peace with his position in the team hierarchy .
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Oct 12, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Well we have less depth overall, but most importantly we have a very good collection of bigs.
That’s more important than 2 or 3 smaller, limited guys (I wish we kept CJ still, but ohwell).
Your political posts are a bit like the flu, Natty: they come around every few months, they suck, everyone wishes there were a cure, but all you can do is let them run their course. Carry on if you must — I’m staying home with my vitamin C and OJ. Ciao.- Sleepy Freud
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 12, 2010 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Did we have Azuibuike last year?
Not sure why that’s relevant: you were talking about our depth, which ’Buike was a pretty big part of, up till the Lee trade. He was totally kicking ass before he blew out his knee. Had his knee fully recovered (which is looking pretty iffy right now) I might have even pencilled him in at starting SF, with Maggs as 6th man.
I guess I’m not sure what you have an issue with here. Do you not agree that Azubuike, Morrow, CJ and Turiaf constituted a better #6-7-8-9 than Carney, Bell, Lin and Amundson?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
but not better than
Williams (6) Amundson (7) bWright (8) pick one (9)
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
I think it’s slightly better than those four. Plus, #6 and 8 we’d have either way, they’d just be bumped to #10 and #11.
Seems pretty clear to me that the “stand pat” team would have been deeper, in the strict sense of the word. But obviously I’m perfectly happy having the best starting 3/4 since … sheesh, when?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Me too
Clearly we’re down to the tweaking level. I’d take our bench this year over last, but it’s a luxury to even be discussing it :)
Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.
Well, we should also get about double the PT out of Williams we got last year, and as tafkasam points out, we didn’t have Buike last year, so while I agree with your point, I’m not sure it’s really much of a difference.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Realistically
Curry. Monta, Lee will get 36 minutes a game, and I will be surprised if Wright and Biedrins don’t average 32.
So what we’re talking about is 12 back up PG minutes, 28 backup wing minutes, 28 back up big minutes.
We still have solid depth
You really only need an 8 man rotation in the regular season. Anything more than that is just injury insurance- playing 4 bench players isn’t actually beneficial.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 12, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Its funny that people dont think that 8 new players aswell as more defensive presence and a healthy harmonious squad is not capable of winning 20 more games than the often injured unharmoious d-league squad from last year.
Your Right
Games Missed 2009-2010
Monta Ellis (18)
Corey Maggette (12)
Anthony Morrow (13)
C.J. Watson (17)
Anthony Randolph (49) Some games due to Coaches Decision (DNP)
Ronnie Turiaf (40)
Andris Biedrins (43)
Buke (73)
Now i realized a small number of these were due to Nellie not playing the individual (Coaches Decision), however, the vast majority of these games were due to injury
The total in case you were wondering was: 265 Games
Players who saw action
Cartier Martin
Mikki Moore
Anthony Tolliver
Coby Karl
Chris Hunter
We had to use a total of 20 different players. Due to injury the Warriros did rely on some sort of AAA team. With the additions, and limiting injuries, there is no reason to believe the Warriors cant win 20 more games than they did last season
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 12, 2010 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
i hope bradon wright
does not get injured this year and has a breakout year. bradon becoming a good player will add good depth to out bench.
of course lets hope warriors are cured of the injury bug.
cant wait to see the team play this year.
My thoughts
1. Lakers (unless injuries hit them hard, they are still team to beat)
2. Portland (I don;t get why people are underrating Camby addition. He does everything they need in a big man. Add to it development of all there young players, and fact last year they had as bad of an injury situation as Warriors and STILL made the playoffs, yeah they are a force)
3. Dallas (Sure they are older. They are also incredibly deep, and none of those ‘older players as going to be asked to play 40 minutes. Roddy will get better at back up PG, Butler/Stephenson will adjust better to dallas to add wing play, Tyson Chandler looks healthy)
4. San Antonio (If healthy, I think they could win West come playoff team, Celtic style. Thiago Splitter is the key. If he produces anywhere near what’s projected, it’ll help limit Duncan’s minutes. Jefferson should improve too…)
5. Houston (Yao is back, Jordan Hill and Budinger will develop into solid players off there bench, KMart will be more adjusted. 50 wins)
6. OKC (Depending on Harden, Ibaka and others development, they could be even higher)
Now here’s where it gets interesting
7. Denver (If team is intact, I feel confident they’ll be fine. )
Pheonix- I won’t right off a team with Nash. They will score fine without Amare. More so, they might actually rebound better without him.
Memphis- Rudy Gay is welcome to justify his hype any year now. If he does (I don’t think he will, but if he does..) they could easily be a playoff team
Utah- Deron Williams
3. Dallas (Sure they are older. They are also incredibly deep, and none of those ‘older players as going to be asked to play 40 minutes. Roddy will get better at back up PG, Butler/Stephenson will adjust better to dallas to add wing play, Tyson Chandler looks healthy)
The issue isn’t whether or not you’re asking Kidd to play 40 minutes.
The simple truth is that Kidd was amazing last year, and it is not reasonable to expect him to be that good this year. Replacing some of his minutes with another player doesn’t solve the problem, because that player is going to be nowhere near as good as Kidd was last year.
Kidd was the best PG in the league last year in terms of production. He was better than Nash, Rondo, or D. Williams. But compared to those players, he has huge, exploitable holes in his game that, after the post-season, everybody should understand how to handle that.
Depth can’t solve that problem, because nobody else they have is going to do anything close to that level of production.
I think most people don’t understand how good Kidd was last year for a couple of reasons. First, they assume that the team is still motoring along because of Dirk, because Dirk’s PPG hasn’t gone down, but the reality is that Dirk is nowhere near the player he was in his MVP season. Second, Kidd doesn’t do the things he used to do well that well anymore, so it looks like his game has fallen off, but the reality is that he’s changed his game and added new strengths.
But Kidd was so good last year that talking about dealing with his aging with depth is like talking about OKC dealing with a Durant injury with depth. It’s nonsensical. Depth doesn’t help you when you lose somebody who’s that good to injury.
I don't see why Kidd cannot
He’s such an intelligent player. His game last year was in no way based on physical tools. Infact he’s turned himself into a 3point shooter to compensate for his inability to get to rim way he used to.
He keeps himself in excellent shape, and doesn’t overexert himself. More so the things that have declined, were either bad last year (defense) or he didn’t do much (run). I don’t see anything really changing between last year and this. He’s already physically declined and playing soley on intelligence
I mean I get your point on him not being able to run the break way he used to. Sure, but no one in the league can pick out a player from mid court the way he does. How often did he get outlet pass, take like 2 dribbles and find open man for lay up or shot. It’s not like he HAS to drive at hoop length or court to get his team a good shot.
Then again, i’ll readily admit, I LOVE Jason Kidd. Possibly my favorite player in NBA in last 20 years. (Can’t not have love for fellow east bay boy).
Kidd has been one of my favorite players for years.
The problem is that last year, everybody in the regular season defended him as if he were the Kidd of 5-10 years ago, when in reality that was playing into his new primary weapon: his outside shooting.
However, in the playoffs we saw what happens when a team realizes that the only way Kidd can beat you is to shoot outside shots. San Antonio got up in his face and dared him to beat them off the dribble … and he couldn’t do it. He couldn’t create his own shot, and he couldn’t get the three off effectively if teams stayed on him.
So this year I think this is going to be a simple test for competent coaching. When your team plays Dallas, do you stick to Kidd like glue and take away the three point shot, or do you treat him like he’s the same guy he used to be?
When Kidd was a younger player, the right thing to do was to dare him to shoot the outside shot, because he was terrible at it. So teams played off him to counter his speed and playmaking. That is the exact opposite of how you need to play him now, as everybody should know by watching the playoffs last year.
So it’s not so much about Kidd’s decline, it’s that it’s really obvious now how to render him an ineffective player, and until the playoffs last season nobody figured it out. You’re right the decline has already happened … but now the league has figured it out.
Of course, I may be giving NBA coaches too much credit. They don’t do a lot of game-planning for the regular season. The the way to play Kidd is so freakin’ simple right now (just get up in his face whenever he has the ball) that I’d think even the dumber teams would try to implement it.
The thing is, thats San Antonio, slowing down game and forcing Kidd into half court. He’s still bestp ushing tempo, even if he doesn’t run.
In regular season teams just don’t slow it down and play half court ball way San Antonio does in playoffs. I still think well see outlet pass to kidd (or Kidd rebound) 2 to 3 dribbles, quick decision, quick shot, and then Kidd trailing for a 3 pointer.
I think we are discussing two different things. Playoff basketball and regular season baskwetball. How often do teams play way San Antonio does in playoffs during regular season? It’s same reason why Boston may be the 4th seed again and still a VERY dangerous team to Miami, because best team doesn’t always win over a best of 7. You can bleed terrible basketball and results for 192 minutes.
I don't really think it's about slowing things down.
I think it’s about making a commitment to defending Kidd in the appropriate way.
Because yes, Kidd’s decision-making is still excellent, but the truth is he’s not a great running PG anymore because he can’t get up and down the court like he used to. He is, in fact, a better half-court player now than he was in his youth.
Young Kidd would create open-court mismatches with his speed, then either get to the rim himself or dish to the right open teammate. Old Kidd no longer has the speed to create those mismatches.
I don’t actually think playoff basketball is that different, with one key exception: in the playoffs, teams game-plan extensively against their opponents. It the regular season, they do so very little. I think the widely discussed “slowing down” of the game in the playoffs is more a function of teams being able to adopt more complex, speciifc defensive game plans to exploit the tendencies they see in their opponents.
Obviously, Poppovich is one of the guys who’s really good at this. Compared to, say, Avery Johnson.
With teams like Boston and the Lakers, it’s really mostly a question of them spending a large part of the season on cruise control, to save their legs for the postseason. THey’re good enough to not need to go 100% to make the playoffs, and they figure they’re better off with fewer miles on their legs than they are with the home-court advantage.
Kidd and Stockton were very different players. Stockton was a half-court player his entire career, and Kidd has been an open-floor guy. Kidd is still very very smart on the basketball court, but I just don’t think he can still deliver when defended correctly because his body isn’t there.
Furthermore, Stockton was two years younger than Kidd is now when his game began a serious, serious decline. Yes, he was able to stick around for a couple of more years and still be a good player, but for Dallas to continue to be as good as they were last year, Kidd has to be better than “good.” He has to be among the best PGs in the game again.
And that just seems really unlikely. And if Kidd is merely, I dunno, Steph-Curry-last-year good, then Dallas is a 45-win team. If his game falls apart (as I think it will if he’s attacked in the right way, but I don’t have a ton of confidence that teams will consistently do that) then they need something special from somebody else to stay above .500.
But by comparing him to ‘2009 steph curry good’ you’re saying Kidd will turn the ball over more. That’s something I don’t think will ever happen with him.
Gotcha
But what does a full year of Caron Butler (limiting Shawn Marion a bit), full year of a solid wing defender in deshawn stephenson and improved growth of there young players bring? How about a healthy Tyson Chandler?
They are a playoff team.
Based on last season, Caron Butler mostly brings the suck.
DeShawn Stevenson brings something well below the suck. Going by last season, he’s a very solid candidate for Worst Player in the NBA.
Tyson Chandler’s OK but nothing special — sort of a poor man’s Sam Dalembert.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Come on
Butler in Washington was an awful situation. Stephenson is a good defensive player, something TS% won’t tell you about. Tyson Chandler, again a much better defensive center than Dalembert or Biedrins.
Chandler doesn't have to be better than Dalembert. He's got to be better than Dampier
He wasn’t last year.
Or the year before that.
(He was the year before that, but the margin isn’t huge).
In fact, it’s been a fairly substantial dropoff. Which is weird, because I generally think of Tyson being good and Damp sucking.
Caron Butler was worse than Marion last year, although he’s been better most of the past few years. The difference is relatively small. Replacing Marion minutes with Caron minutes will therefore probably be an improvement, but if you want to talk abotu Washingotn being an awful situation for Caron, you have to explain why he produced more there than he did after the trade to Dallas.
Last year with the whole Gilbert situation was awful situation.
It’s not common for players like Butler (used to being 20 poing scorers) being traded to a team mid season expected to a role player to do well initially. Like I said, give him training camp and all to properly settle, he should be back at his best.
Mike Miller didn’t play like crap, despite having to deal with “the Gilbert situation.”
Butler was just as bad in the 47 games before the trade as in the 27 games after it.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, all you’ve given here is your opinion, which doesn’t count for much. Here are some facts (in bold):
Stevenson 6.6 pts / 3.7 reb / 2.3 ast per 36, .381 TS
Even if I totally trusted your opinion of his D, there’s zero chance a guy with anything close to those numbers is helping his team win games.
Chandler 10.3 pts / 9.9 reb / 0.5 ast / 2.8 tov per 36, .643 TS
Very nice efficiency. I like his defense too. The rebounding, turnovers, and passing are troublesome. Overall, it’s hard to see much of an upgrade over Dampier.
Butler 15.6 pts / 6.0 reb / 2.0 ast / 2.1 tov per 36, .507 TS
Unless he rediscovers his old form (no guarantee for a 30 year old) that’s the type of small forward production that’s more likely to result in losses than wins.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 12, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you’re being a bit hard on Chandler. He’s still an above average rebounder for a C, and he has had better passing numbers in the past, before CP3 and his year in Charlotte….
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
you're joking about damp and chandler
Dampier hasn’t been able to average over 24/25 minutes since he went to dallas. Before last year Chandler was a 32+ mpg guy. And at full health will be again. That’s a HUGE difference. I won’t even get into fact Chandler is a much better defender than Dampier anyway (damp defends rim well, but Chandler can actually D up post players)
Notice how much better Dallas was when they got Haywood? It was largely because they had legitimate center minutes out of 2 players and because of Butlers wing defense. DEFENSE! DEFENSE! DEFENSE!
Why did Lakers + Boston get to finals?
You’re really just disregarding over half the game, and even the half you are mentioning you’re using rate stats which are flawed if the players at mention NEVER play true starters minutes? It’s like the same argument Oden is a more productive player than Marc gasol or Al Horford. Sure, he is more productive per minute, but it doesn’t matter much if he is on the floor 12 less minutes a game and his backup is FAR less productive. Now the major difference in this comparison is Oden is 22 and who knows what future holds for him. Dampier is by all accounts not gonna turn into a 30+ minute a game player.
Now I’ll readily admit I’m basing this off fact Tyson Chandler stays healthy, which is NOT a guarantee. But considering he looked healthiest he has since 06/07 Hornets year (year they got to western conference final, which coincidentally had A LOT to do with him). If he does though, it’s a huge gain for Dallas. Ask CP3 about a healthy Tyson Chandler, he sure misses that presence.
I don’t like the use of the word “flawed” with rate stats. It’s a completely legitimate point to bring up that one guy plays more minutes than the other guy. That doesn’t make the rate stat “flawed”, it just means you have to credit the guy with more PT with being more productive.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair point
Flawed is the wrong word. But it is a flawed ARGUMENT to claim two players are more or less the same because there rate is same. There are MANY factors, and while it’s definitely a useful way to look at statistics, you need to look at WHOLE picture, something I feel a lot of people don’t do.
It’s a great way to look at small minute guys and project how they might do in larger minutes, a great way to find maybe a ‘hidden gem’ (if you will). But in the case of Dampier it’s not that.
Well, it’s great in larger minutes, too – it’s like using OBP and SLG in baseball. It makes sense. But yeah, if you have two guys who put up the same triple slash and one gets 600 PA’s and the other 400, of course the one with more PA’s helps you win more…..
Or in other words, why Heyward is the NL ROY even though Posey is better (right now, that is).
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions
well
In your situation its a game total sample size. Baseball isnt exactly applicable cause they don’t play minutes. I suspect if posey did play same amount of games his numbers would be larger than heyward.
But my point was specific to Dampier, who will not is not on upside of his career, and i suspect incapable of playing over 24 minutes per game rest of his career.
In that sense, Tyson Chandler is 28, off one injury plagued year, but looked back to full health over summer with Team USA. He’s proven he can play 32+ minutes per game at a higher level than dampier. IF he can reproduce that production it is actually a large upgrade to Dampier, even if there per minute stats look similar. Point being a healthy Chandler, plus improved wing play (defensively) can compensate for a ‘declining’ jason kidd. Assuming Kidd doesn’t become an actual detriment to the team as opposed to just less of a star.
to simplify
Posey can play more. Dampier cannot
Well yeah, but my point is rate * PT = production, which is the same in both cases, and why you use rate stats no matter what. :)
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
BTW
I’m not a big fan of win share but Tyson Chandler and New Orleans best year 07-08 he had a win share of 10.0.
Dampiers best year @ Dallas was 6.4. More so last year he produced 3.7 win share. Him + Haywood combine produced 5.9 wins (granted Haywood only played 26.5 mpg in 28 games). But it was that period of time (the last 28 games) POST trade, when they got a legitimate center to go with Dampier (who by that point was playing backups minutes) along with added wing defense, that Dallas greatly improved. Eitherway, if Chandler plays like he did with Hornets that’s a huge upgrade and asset to Dallas, and an overlooked one in my opinion
I think the question with Tyson is something along the lines of:
How much of his performance in his career year in New Orleans was a function of him being healthy and “getting it” – that is to say, it represents a new norm for him – and how much was it a function of the great synergy of playing with the best PG in the league having the best season of his career, on a team that had “we believe” like chemistry?
Any idea if that was a contract year for him? This year is, too, FWIW.
Hit post to soon.
Just want to add, look, if you want to give Tyson credit for returning to the form of the best season in his career, and you’re going to use that to make comparisons, then don’t you have to do the same for Monta, Biedrins, etc when making a comparison?
Right
But I believe Tyson’s biggest impact is clearly on defensive end. He is a clear upgrade (28 years old) to Dampier (anywhere between 34 and 50 depending which birth certificate surfaces).
Either-way what he does offensively isn’t that relevant because they won’t be running any plays for him.
On top of that, they kept Haywood. They should have excellent center production. Quite a formidable duo
I would actually think about throwing New Orleans and the Warriors in that big gumble of teams at the bottom there
More and more I think about it, there does appear to be some separation between the Warriors and the Clippers and Kings (with Minnesotta at the far bottom). Looks like Warriors can compete with Utah, Memphis, Denver, and the Suns. Oddly enough it looks like Lee might really be the key player for the year.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 12, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess not odd really
Just that so much of the focus has been on Curry is all
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 12, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't put warriors soley cause we know about them
I was discussing ‘the field’. I think first 6 i listed aren’t even worth discussions as they’ll be in over GSW barring major injuries.
Don’t know how I forgot New Orleans though.
I think the biggest seperation between the Warriors and Kings is that we’re simply ahead of you guys in our development – you got Cousins, but we traded for Lee. We seem headed on similar paths, we’re just there before you guys.
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I think people are seriously underestimating what Dorell Wright brings to this team on both ends of the court. He can get his and contain the guy he’s guarding while creating plays for other guys.
I’m waiting to see Dorell a few times before making a judgment…
by Missing Barry on Oct 12, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
He seems to be doing more than I expected
Which is nice, but if he just plays good perimeter D, rebounds his position and just plays with in the offense (on offense) i’ll be content.
I was thinking about it. Aside from Lakers who in west has 2 elite level scoring wings (Even the Lakers don’t but Artest has done it in past and will have ‘his games’).
If Wright can man up Brandon Roy or Kevin Durant (which is about as hard as west gets). Monta on the weaker offensive wing (Batum, Sefalopha) who might not touch ball a lot is great. He can cover and do what he does best, get in passing lanes and frustrate hell out of teams, even if he’s giving up 3 to 6 inches depending. Point being unless we run into Miami or the 90s Bulls, If Wright can be the defensive starter I’ll be THRILLED
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!"
Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)
Related FanPosts on Golden State Of Mind
Related FanShots on Golden State Of Mind
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Most Commented
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- A closer look at a big night for Brandon Bass, who ate well because Rajon Rondo kept feeding him
- Kevin Garnett takes a little shot at Philadelphia’s ‘fair weather fans.’ His words, not ours (VIDEO)
- Eight wounded in a shooting as fans spill out into the streets surrounding the Oklahoma City Thunder’s arena
- Behind the Box Score, where a special Oklahoma City Thunder team is moving on
- Russell Westbrook hit an impossible and-one shot to beat the Lakers (VIDEO)
