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RECAP #4: Memphis Grizzlies 109, Golden State Warriors 115 - Montazing!

Monta_medium

Full Boxscore  |  Game Thread  |  Game Day Links
Straight Outta Vancouver

Wins feel good. Wins over teams you need to beat out for the playoffs feel even nicer. The Warriors are 3-1. Crazy. The Warriors have a winning record and are undefeated at home.

Did the Oracle Arena look a little sparse? Was it because of the Grizzlies or because people were still celebrating late after the World Champion San Francisco Giants victory parade? There must have been at least 500,00 people out there, maybe even touching 1,000,000. All I know is that down by the Civic Center it was NUTS and it was totally worth it to take time off work, drive into the city from the South Bay, deal with all the people, and watch the parade up close. Did you go?

Back to the Warriors, they gave a great effort out there tonight with guys hustling, cleaning up the boards, playing hard on D and forcing turnovers. But the big difference in this game? Monta Ellis.

Star-divide

Monta Ellis
What an incredible game Monta had! 39 points (12-26 FG's and 14-19 FT's), 9 boards, 8 assists, 3 steals, and 4 turnovers. This may be an even better game than his opening night scoring barrage because it was without the help of us backcourt teammate, Stephen Curry, and he had a great all-around game. He even carried the team in the 4th quarter with 17 points. I would like to say that tonight he was trying to prove to the Warriors that they made a good decision by not trading him for OJ Mayo and Hasheem Thabeet, but I really think he's just back to the old Monta after his moped injury and is out to inflict "pain" on opposing teams.

 

Dorell Wright
Rudy Gay (35 points) nearly matched Monta point for point. This is a little disturbing because Dorell Wright, who's supposed to be one of defensive guys was covering Gay most of the night. Sometimes you just can't stop a guy who's on fire, but if Wright is able to slow him down, this game isn't even close. Although Wright didn't  have such a good defensive game, he had his best offensive game as a Warrior with 25 points, including 7 threes. Great to see that this year he's had the green light to launch 3's because he shoots a good percentage. The more and more Wright plays, the more and more I like his game. So far he's been a great addition to this team.

 


David_lee_dive_medium

David Lee
Nice little bounce back game for our big man. Just 15 points on 17 shots, but he was more active tonight and was a huge reason why the Warriors were able to win the battle of the boards. His 16 rebounds, 9 offensive, were key to the Warriors' 48 to 39 edge on the boards. When Biedrins stinks up the court like he did today, it's a godsend to have a big man who can be counted on for double digit rebound nights.

 

Free Throws
It's about time the Warriors outshot their opponent on free throws. It sure helps that Monta shot 19 of them and the 34 to 25 free throw advantage was a pleasure to see. Hopefully they make this a trend and get to the line for some easy points.

 

Memphis
Mike Conley was rewarded with a 5 year, $40 million contract the other day and I was scratching my head wondering how he got such a big deal. So I looked at the stats and there was nothing special about him. He was an average starting point guard, if that. But so far this year, he's producing quite well and tonight was no exception. His 18 points, 7 boards, 13 assists, and 3 steals were a big reason the Grizzlies stayed in the game.

The Grizzlies seem like a scrappy team. With Conley, Gay, Mayo, and Gasol, they were able to keep it close even without Zach Randolph. They wouldn't go away which is a testament to them. I think Grizzlies teams in the past would have given up.

 

Last But Not Least...
Keith Smart switched up the starting 5. He brought Rodney Carney into the starting 5 and sat Reggie Williams instead. Normally Reggie comes off the bench but with Curry out, someone needed to step in. This little change might have given Reggie the opportunity he needed. The 16 points are nice, but it was the 8 assists I was most surprised with. He made some nice passes and kept the ball moving.

 

 

428914596_76a1ef815f_o_medium

This one is easy, Monta Ellis.

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Nice recap, FJ.

I haven’t been happy with many of Smart’s subbing patterns, but for me the key to winning last night’s game was the 4-5 minutes of rest he was able to get Monta at the end of the 3rd/start of the 4th. Where the 48-mpg Monta of late last season would likely have lost his legs at the end and shot us out of the game, that l’il blow seemed give him the vim and vigor he needed to close the game with Brian Wilson-like authority.

Eye-popping stat through 4 games:

PPG / TS% through four games
Dorell 20.5 / .660
Monta 30.0 / .622

Almost certainly not sustainable, but man, if Monta and Dorell continue at even close to this level, and Steph/AB/Lee just are who they are, and all five stay healthy … look out, league.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 9:17 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

but for me the key to winning last night’s game was the 4-5 minutes of rest he was able to get Monta at the end of the 3rd/start of the 4th

 that and DoorL’s 7 threes. If he’d shot at a more reasonable 50% rate we’d probably have lost. It looked like both teams were trying to give this one away till the very end and Memphis was just better at it :>)

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

If he’d shot at a more reasonable 50% rate we’d probably have lost.

He did shoot at a more reasonable 50% rate (7-13 from three, 8-17 total) and we won.

I’m impressed that we won despite being outshot from the field .512 to .413. Solid rebounding, shooting plenty of 3s, and getting to the FT line can do that.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

He did shoot at a more reasonable 50% rate

haha, for some reason I thought he made like 6 threes in a row? I must have missed his misses.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

It’s still early but I was one for the keep monta camp over the summer. If he continues I hope members of this site learn that there is more than just numbers. It’s how those numbers are derived. Monta played way to many minutes last season. I don’t think anyone can be efficient used like that. Well, maybe lebron and Durant, etc. but let’s be clear, If we are asking Monta to be those guys, that’s not fair. He has a good team around him and doesn’t have to do as much as the results have been positively compounded. I hope he can keep it up. I hope this team can stay healthy. And I can’t wait to get Duo, Amundson, and curry back.

I’m still not expecting the playoffs but if we can get at least 35 wins this year, I’ll be thrilled.

by Balance on Nov 4, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m still not expecting the playoffs

oh come on :>) if these giants can make them then these warriors certainly can.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good point. i’m now expecting at least the western conference finals.

by Balance on Nov 4, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

HA!

I expect no less than the NBA Championship….

pfffft

by Sniff009 on Nov 4, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unless Curry and Monta retire with more rings than Bill Russell, I’ll consider the 2010s an abject failure.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Heh

Yeah, it’s too bad in hoops one can’t reach for such heights so quickly. In the NBA you have to “move on up” with baby steps. Steps: Get healthy, establish roles, figure out what moves you need to hone the team into more and start getting some playoff experience…..only then do you even start thinking about “doing anything” in the playoffs.

In baseball, all you have to do is get in the ‘offs and it’s then a crapshoot. Basketball just doesn’t work that way. Even football, with such few games to get through, you can possibly sneak in to the SB, if it’s a down year or you catch some teams with more injuries than you.

Hoops? No way. 7 game series’. Multiple teams that may have an off night or two, but so rare for clearly “lucky” teams to win it all (for instance, what if the Giants didn’t get a team like ATL in the first round? They GAVE the G’s two games, gave them. Who knows, before their ball got rolling maybe the Gs don’t do what they did.)

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 4, 2010 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

what if the Giants didn’t get a team like ATL in the first round?

or what if colorado had a little better luck? Jimenez had about 14 wins before the allstar break and only won about 5 after.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

With all due respect

Jimenez not pitching as well isn’t bad luck, he didn’t pitch as well. That’s a skill thing. It happens. He’s a great pitcher, but the Rockies as a team just waited too long to get it going this year, then when they did, used up all their juice just to get back, then fell off at the end. That’s not luck, they just weren’t good enough.

The Giants luck came in 1, being in the NL, 2, getting ATL. (Not to mention balls hitting tops of fences only to bounce back and first base bags when the guy was going to field it. They just were one of those teams where the stars aligned for them and they, to their credit, ran with it. And, of course, they do have outstanding, not luck, skilled pitching.)

But yeah, if the G’s played in the AL, their just squeezing in to the ’offs would have instead been a “just missed” the ’offs.

And, related, in the NL you get ATL in the first round (an ATL team that was missing some of their best hitters and had their poor fielding 2nd baseman have important balls, of course, go right to him for him to blow.)

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 4, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we don't keep one of Curry/Monta out there at all times.

We’re screwed.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Nov 4, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Depending on matchups, I think Lee, Andris, Reggie and Dorell are all capable of creating offense in spurts.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Reggie and Dorell maybe

I just hope Curry and Monta stay healthy. We need their perimeter production and leadership.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Nov 4, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

umm

I love Beans (as a fellow left-handed tall guy from the eastern bloc (or maybe Latvia is not actually in…whatever)
But if you are looking for him to create offense, you’d better plan on relying on him for very, very short bursts

I do like what I’ve seen so far though. I’ve been looking for those little hookshots from him forever!

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah like I said, it depends on matchups. I wouldnt recommend giving him the ball down there against Dwight Howard or anything, but against certain guys, he can definitely create some shots. But yeah, he’s not someone to rely on all game long or anything.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

We've got to be honest...

….about Andris.

He just isn’t, and doesn’t look to become, what many of us thought he could grow into. It seems his game just hit a ceiling.

No offense to speak of, worsening FTs, and he still commits silly fouls (only to then, like clockwork, look at the scoreboard selfconsiously and sheepishly. He’s a “finesse C.”) I really wish he would “get mad” and stop being OK, it seems, with what his ceiling is looking like. But it seems his easy going, nice personality doesn’t portend that.

Because of all of this, one can’t play him to make his rebounding worthwhile, and he’s too expensive for a backup. (I mean, he’s “ok,” but if we really want to truly expand our game..)

I am afraid the writing is on the wall. Since Lee is inked, and Lee can’t play D, it would behoove the Warriors to recognize this working up to the trade deadline or earlier, take whatever trade value he has and find a defensive, rebounding C that would complement Lee.

AB can play D only so so, and his lack of much O helps make other teams work less, meaning they can help defend our other players more.

I used to really be high on Andris, but even if he plays a bit better, he’s not worth it, and he still has the perception around the league (now that he’s healthy) that he’s better than he is.

If the W’s wait too long, which is their MO, he will be exposed and the W’s will be stuck with a C/PF tandem that doesn’t fit. Again, Lee is here for the long haul. Having Lee demands we get a hulking, intimidating, rebounding C. Tough to do, yes, but acknowledging it is the first step. I really hope the W’s do.

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 4, 2010 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Simply put, your views on Andris are off. If you think Andris has no O, I’m going to throw it out there that you don’t watch what the rest of the C’s in the league do. He scores both at an above average rate and efficiency for a C. If you’ve been watching this year, you would have even seen a bit of a post game out of him. He’s a big time rebounder, and a decent defender. Overall, that’s solid production from the C spot, and honestly if you’re looking for more, you’re asking for guys like Andrew Bynum, Gasol, Duncan, Howard and only a few others. Good luck trading Andris for one of them. Also take a look at what C’s throughout the league make. Andris isn’t overpaid, he’s a bargain.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I used to sound just like you

Defended AB for years.

And i do love he doesn’t force things on O.

But, he just stopped growing (i’m open, challenging him, to prove me wrong.)

What is this “bit” of low post game you speak of? You mean they’ve actually thrown him some feeds down low? Just because they’ve tried to fee him a bit, doesn’t mean he’s done much with that. I mean, right? His righty hook still looks awful, his lefty one is meh from anywhere further than right next to the hoop.

Speaking of right next to the hoop, that’s why his shooting numbers look as good as they do, along with how little focus on D other teams have to give him.

So, sure, he gets open looks within the flow. Yes. And he has generally good hands and runs well and is athletic. I appreciate and see all of that.

And yes, it’s hard to find great Cs. But what i’m proposing is that at what is it, 9 million, it isn’t worth is since his D is only OK and we have an awful defender here at PF for awhile now.

What i propose is to get a cheaper, less overall talented C than AB, but one who is a better, more physical defensive presence who rebounds as well. That you can find and get cheaper.

Also, it has to be said. When he shoots so poorly from the FT line, it hurts in that AB himself shies away from contact, something you don’t want from your bigs, and if he goes to the line, well….

All that wouldn’t bother me if he was just truly a good defender, but he’s only so so there.

I used to defend him to the hilt too. But, his personality doesn’t seem like he’ll ever really become the boarding, defending beast we need paired with Lee.

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 5, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

When do you think he stopped growing?

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 5, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

And yes, it’s hard to find great Cs. But what i’m proposing is that at what is it, 9 million, it isn’t worth is since his D is only OK and we have an awful defender here at PF for awhile now.

What i propose is to get a cheaper, less overall talented C than AB, but one who is a better, more physical defensive presence who rebounds as well. That you can find and get cheaper.

See, this is the problem. First, a better, more physical defensive presence who rebounds as well limits the pool of available options to pretty much a few of the best C’s in the league. Second, go over to hoophype’s website and look through the salaries of NBA C’s. You really can’t get decent ones for cheap. C’s cost a whole lot of money. The only way to get a guy that’s as good as you’re proposing AND as cheap as you seem to think C’s are is to make a great draft pick on a guy – and even then, he has to be good while still making his slotted rookie level salary.

by Missing Barry on Nov 6, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lee and Reggie are more than capable.

Lee was at 20 points per 36 on .585TS%, and around 3.5 assists. He’s a very good offensive player.

by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 4, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I still don’t see why 35 is something to be thrilled with. We’re better than a 35 win team. If we win 35, something went wrong.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

No injuries

and we are looking at a fairly easy go at the 8th seed, maybe even higher!

Suns and Utah are definately off their games as compared to last year.
Kings and Clips are looking less and less scary.

Even last yearsr team would have won more that 35 games if it wasn’t for all the injuries

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Suns have played the toughest schedule to date

@ Blazers, @ Jazz, vs Lakers, vs Spurs. With Jazz/Lakers being back-back

We’d be lucky to be 1-3 against that stretch.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’d actually guess 1-3 would be the “mode” record had we played that schedule.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

~40 was my estimate

Based on Biedrins returning to form and DLee doing his thing. If Monta can keep some semblance of efficiency up and DWright can hit the long range jumper, we just need Curry to stay healthy and we’re going to be a very dangerous team.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

they have yet to establish road game credentials

if they’re not able to win much more than a third of their road games, getting to forty or above overall will be difficult. As usual, it could take until early Jan. to get a clear notion of the team’s capabilities. When Curry isn’t in the game, they too often look on the verge of disintegration, and the better teams will know how to neutralize either or both of the guards.

Music is the Healing Force of the Universe (a.ayler)

by the.monk on Nov 4, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

A single game against the Lakers is hardly a good road test

We’ll see what happens going forward. But at least we know that last year’s team would be 1-3 at best after 4 games. This team has performed much better than last year’s would have. They should have no trouble pulling out 10+ more wins than last year.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

We also lost every road game on the road

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

oh F&^% me

I meant to say we lost every road game in the preseason

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

We also haven't won any road games at home

;)

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

They niners have

This is Kristin Kreuk, now zip it. - GTTM

by disguy on Nov 5, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Meh, I don’t think there’s anything special to knowing how to play on the road. The formula for being a good road team is the same formula as being a good team in general….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps, but for whatever reason, execution, game planning, etc seem to be more paramount on the road.

Last year, the terrible Warriors squad we had still managed 19-23 at home but an absolutely god awful 7-35 on the road.

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, I don’t believe all home court advantages are created equal (and ours is very, very good), and of course we do expect all teams to do a decent amount better at home than on the road…..

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

@Balance

Finally someone who recognizes that many members of this site base too much of their opinion on numbers. I too was on the keep Monta camp and still think that Monta’s fatigue is a major reason for his inefficiency last season.

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Finally someone who recognizes that many members of this site base too much of their opinion on numbers

Hm. I’ve never heard this point of view before. ;-P

Personally, I always allowed for the real possibility that Monta would return to his old winning, efficient scoring ways. Where I bristled sometimes was at the unwillingness to even accept that Monta had had a bad year, and the morbid adherence to a single, highly misleading number: “25.5 ppg.”

Moving forward: what are we to base our assessment of Monta’s vastly improved performance on, if not numerical evidence (30.0 ppg on spectacular .622 TS, 2/1 assist turnover ratio, e.g.)? His improved tattoo coverage?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well

when i was referring to numbers, I wasn’t actually referring to Monta Ellis. I was referring more to the case of X player being good because of his stats or X player being better than Y player because of stats (which is not necessarily true all the time).

Basically what I’m trying to say is: people tend to refer less to player intangibles on this site and instead focus more on player statistics. =)

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would like to see more

thorough player analysis from those who have good basketball knowledge (not saying I have good basketball knowledge).

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

stats, even advanced stats, miss some info

for instance, if you just look at stats, a lot of high volume shooters don’t make sense. I mean, if they’re that bad, why do you keep giving them the ball.
But the truth is, most teams (at least sometimes) end up passing the ball to thier best player, and then the rest of the team stands around watching while that player gets his shot.

So yeah, looks bad on paper, but that player is still very, very good. I would like to coin this as the “Ariza factor.” He looked great on LAL, but ship him to the Rockets, and force him to play beyond his game…boom, you’ve got a problem

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

But the truth is, most teams (at least sometimes) end up passing the ball to thier best player, and then the rest of the team stands around watching while that player gets his shot.

That’s called an isolation

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah, but we are talking about Iso-spamming

It’s called isolation sure…But when you do it over and over and over again (ala Brown calling for LeBron iso, top of the key, pretty much every time down the floor) it gets much easier to defend

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also

some guys are better to call an Iso play for than others (see Monta vs. RWilliams)

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure, not disagreeing really.

If you have a Lebron or Durant, why not Iso that player a lot? Brown’s Lebron-fense still managed to make the Cavs perennial playoff contenders.

Monta 2009 was not an “elite” player, despite his 25ppg. However, also remember just how god awful the lineups we were throwing out there around him, especially before Curry got into the groove. When we were throwing up lineups of Mikki Moore, Maggette, Cartier, pre-Jan. Curry, and Monta, I can see why we ran the ball almost exclusively through Monta. Basically, I just take it as Monta is no Lebron. He is not going to single handedly carry a team to the playoffs.

Yes, I agree there you can’t really put down the “intangibles” into some neat organized statistical form, but I find a large majority of a player’s ability to produce does show in statistics. I don’t think much of WP48 or +/-, but I find things like team rebound percentage, TS%, etc helpful in backing up what I am seeing on the court.

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isolation is kind of always a bad idea.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know, there are stats to have that discussion. There’s research on the relationship between efficiency and usage (conclusion: as usage goes up, efficiency tends to go down), there are places that track how often a guy gets his shots from various different kinds of plays like iso’s vs open set shots, etc. It’s possible to discuss those things while properly using statistics, and I tend to find some of the best commentators on this site do discuss the whole picture at the same time, using statisticss as evidence (because when used properly, they are very good evidence) to back up their points. It makes for quality discussion.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

It’s not because his stats are better – generally, over time, the more skilled players have better stats. A difference in FG% may be because player X is a better shooter, or because he takes better shots. Bad Monta vs Good Monta illustrates that pretty clearly – Monta is an excellent shooter, but we only see that when he takes more good shots than bad ones.

This is one of the friendlier sites for stats-oriented folks, yes. This year’s team is also, if the numbers are believable, a superior basketball team. Whether by luck, skill, circumstances, or any other factor, Larry Riley has put together what should be one of the most talented teams in the league. In Arturo Galletti’s phrase, the Warriors are “the darlings of Wins Produced”. That influences who writes, and how we write. It is one thing if we say “this is a very good team – they will have great chemistry” in a preseason. It’s quite another if arguably the best “objective” measure of all teams says “this is a very good team”.

At the same time the historical stats for the players say that, every one of our significant players – with the sole exception of Steph – has been perceived as having major intangible negatives – too short, too soft, too egocentric, weak competition, undrafted, injury prone… so that makes it more engaging. Which is illusion, and which is reality?

Or you could just say the Warriors are a Bay Area team, with Bay Area fans :)

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

The thing with intangibles is they should show up in the stats somewhere. If a guy is good at cutting and consistently reading the defense well, he should get more good looks and score more and score more efficiently because of it. If a guy is a good decision maker with the ball, it’ll help him up his assist numbers and cut down his turnovers. At the very least, any intangible a guy has that actually helps win teams should show up in +/- eventually. So I don’t see much need to talk about intangibles – the intangibles are the process that lead to the results, but I prefer comparing guys overall results to each other. How they get those results usually doesn’t interest me all that much.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

The thing I like about stats

is that the guy who gets to the line and the guy who shoots a lot of 3s can be similarly productive on offense. The numbers help us compare those guys more directly because their games are so different.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Basically what I’m trying to say is: people tend to refer less to player intangibles on this site and instead focus more on player statistics. =)

“Intangibles” by definition, can’t be referred to in any way other than subjective opinion.

by jae on Nov 4, 2010 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the point (not made very clearly) was that fatigue influenced the numbers downward

So we can look at the bad numbers, but the cause behind the bad numbers was not “Monta is a bad player” The result was “Monta is playing badly” but the cause was fatigue, poor supporting cast, poor attitude, his best friend on the team going on a crazy tirade and forcing a trade, etc. etc.

BUT WHO CARES WHY? HE’S BACK BABY!!!!

by Billy Frijoles on Nov 4, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

His improved tattoo coverage?

haha, someone recently was asking me if I though Montay was like the new Iverson and I thought about it and decided that Montay will never be as popular as Iverson no matter how he plays cause Iverson defined cool while Montay looks like roadkill with those tire tread tattoos all over his body :>)

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, maybe lebron and Durant, etc.

Durant is shooting 33% (or 20% worse than Monta) from the field through 4 games. :D

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just think that 33% thru 4 games is awful.

Do I think it’ll continue? Not at 33%, but I don’t think he’ll improve to an elite number throughout the year either. Durant has never struck me as a particularly efficient scorer. He’s never shot better than 48% from the field on a season.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

His TS% last year was at .606. As a reference, LeBron’s was .591.

by tandy on Nov 4, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant has never struck me as a particularly efficient scorer.

LOL. Do you pay attention to facts when they strike you across the face?

TS%, career / last season
Durant .570 / .607
Ellis .540 / .517

Pts per 36, career / last season
Durant 24.1 / 23.4
Ellis 19.1 / 22.2

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

ouch sleepy....that reallly hurt....

sleepy bitt mehh..

No electro, no metro, a little retro. Ahhhhhhhh.. perfecto

by Percie Harvin on Nov 4, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

… and it’s still hurting… ;-)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

With all due respect to Kevin Durant's scoring ability,

I was talking about Durant’s field goal efficiency, which is quite a different thing from True Shooting Percentage. And I don’t think .476% (his career-high FG%) is all that impressive… actually, the reason I think Durant’s TS% is so high is because he’s an elite free-throw shooter, for his career. Always 86% or higher from the line, and he was at 90% last year. But again, free-throw shooting is a very different thing from field-goal shooting, and I’ve never been big on TS%. Field-goal percentage is my personal favorite measure of a player’s shooting efficiency.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

You still get points from the FT line

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure, but by that measure,

Chauncey Billups is one of the best scorers in the NBA.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

He is one of the most efficient. He gets most of his points at the line and from 3. That’s a very good thing.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

But you wouldn't compare Chauncey

to D-Wade, LBJ, or Monta Ellis (guys who take and make a high volume of shots from the field). I’m not sure what eFG% is either (never heard of it), but I think insomuch as FG% inherently accounts for 3-PT% (duh, it’s a shot taken during play), it’s a very good measure of a player’s shooting accuracy. I just think those two things are very different from FT%.

Take LBJ and D-Wade for instance. Those guys routinely shoot 48%-50% from the field and take a high volume of shots “from the field”. They’re TS% are probably lower than guys like Durant and Billups just because they’re 75% free-throw shooters. But I don’t think of Durant or especially Billups as a better offensive player than either of them. In fact, I think both of those guys (Wade and James) are better at putting the ball through the rim, insomuch as they’re better at creating shots in-game and doing so more efficiently… from the field.

I just don’t care for TS%. Never have.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just don’t care for TS%. Never have.

Again, that’s fine, but you’re essentially arguing that one guy who scores less points when he shoots 30 times is better than a guy who scores more points when he shoots 30 times because you choose to use a worse statistic. It might make you happy, but it also makes you wrong. If you choose to be wrong, by all means, that’s your choice. I just want you to know that’s the choice you’re making, though.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant scores less when he shoots 30 times

than James or Wade though, because those guys are more efficient at shooting from the field (which includes 3-point shots). My issue with TS% is that it lumps FT% with shots taken from the field (which includes 3s) to create a cohesive whole, when in fact, I think free-throw shooting is a very different thing from field goal shooting, because the ball is dead. That’s why some guys that are so great at shooting in-game are only decent free-throw shooters.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant scores less when he shoots 30 times than James or Wade though

Only when you ignore times that they shoot FT’s. But guess what? When you shoot and get fouled, you’re taking a shot just like on any possession when you don’t get fouled. If you make the shots, the other team gets the ball. If you miss the last FT, then there’s a rebound that the defense gets most of the time. Just like any other shot. My way of doing it is more accurate because it doesn’t ignore one aspect of scoring points for no good reason, as you apparently want to do by excluding FT’s. FT’s matter, and have to be included. And fine, if you want to say FT shooting is different than other shots, that’s fine, but the thing is, it still results in points, which is why it needs to be accounted for. Basketball is a game of points, and you can’t just ignore one method of scoring them. It matters quite a bit in who wins the game. And there’s no issue with lumping in FT shooting because the ultimate result is points, and those are standard units across all 3 kinds of shots (2 pointers, 3 pointers, FT’s)….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s ok, at one point all of us never thought about it that way. Once you give it some thought, though, I promise it will make a lot of sense. :)

On another note, if you want to keep thinking about it your way just because you like thinking about it like that, I think you should call it something other than scoring efficiency. Something more along the lines of scoring efficiency from the field would be a more accurate description, I think.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Something more along the lines of scoring efficiency from the field would be a more accurate description, I think.

You mean like, Effective Field Goal Percentage?

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yep, that would be the right measure for efficiency from the field if you don’t want to include FT’s.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Barry, you just changed my world man...

I’m looking at scoring in a whole new light now.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Glad I can help. Always enjoy civil discussion. We all learn something from it. Happy you’re willing to keep an open mind.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant is, in fact, every bit the scorer than Wade and Lebron are.

If you just want Field Goal efficiency, take a look at Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) which is calculated by: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. As a 3PT shot is worth 150% more in terms of points, it’s only fair to weigh them more than regular baskets.

Last season stats:
Lebron – .545 eFG%
Wade – .500 eFG%
Durant – .514 eFG%
Monta – .476% (2010 Monta is currently at .585% btw)
Chauncey – .499%

Lebron, obviously, is a beast. Even without the FTs, Durant is still quite efficient himself, and in fact was better than Wade last year. Chauncey doesn’t take nearly as many field goal attempts as the other players listed, but even then he is as efficient as Wade. 2009 Monta is….welll let’s just say I MUCH prefer 2010 Monta.

Points are points are points, and points win games. You may not like it, but TS% is one of the best ways to determine how well and efficient a player can put points on the board.

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

TS% is one of the best ways to determine how well and efficient a player can put points on the board.

Yea, you guys have just made me a believer. I didn’t really get it before, to be honest. The idea that free-throws (e.g. fouls drawn by a player) should be accounted for when determining how much a player scores… that is krazee…

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

o god

way to swell up their heads even more. Next time people start bandying about words you don’t know, just google it. Use Basketball-reference.com, Hoopdata.com, 82games.com, etc: you’re a smart kid; don’t take their word for it and go play with the data yourself

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

how do i not understand said stuff?

haha, to be cleansed you gotta take the stuff you already know and give it new names and then bow before it.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

but i did

I introduced gsc to hoopdata.com, whether he’ll admit it or not. That kid went on an all caps rage on me just 3 months ago about making stuff up regarding AT RIM FG% until I showed him where I got the data.

I understand TS%. I understand it well enough to manipulate the input data to show the effects of TS% respective to player. I did this two months ago when I showed that increasing MOnta’s 3PT FG/FGA last season would have had negligible effect on his TS%, despite the claims of some that MOnta should shoot more 3’s.

I understand PPP well enough to point out its deficiencies

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who said that Monta should shoot more 3s?

He wasn’t a good 3P shooter last year.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

i have the post if you want it

but i’ll only link it if you can respond to the question posed inside it

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

i don't have a prejudice against them

I just see their strengths and their weaknesses. And I do so while understanding what they are. You, on the other hand, don’t understand 50 percent of what you say but cling onto their veracity with the doggedness of (insert joke here, I’d write something witty but mods would ban me if I show the slightest hint of acerbity towards you)

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’d write something witty but mods would ban me if I show the slightest hint of acerbity towards you

Hey, we aren’t the Governor’s security detail! Have at him, he’s totally asking for it.

I’m kidding of course. But seriously, it seems to me like both of you are being kinda lame here.

by olympicmike on Nov 5, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

lol

I’m totally going to change my alt GSoM handle to “The Governor’s Security Detail”…

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 5, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

he doesn’t have the volume. He is very efficient, though, and he should get credit for it. Remember- the original discussion was Durant. Durant is comparable to LeBron as a scorer, better than Wade and just so much better than Monta.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you're talking by TS%, I agree with you Rev.

Otherwise, I don’t think Durant is really any better than Wade or Ellis (in terms of field goal efficiency, which is how I’ve always viewed it). But since you gotta figure Durant is gonna get to the line x number of times per game and make em 90% of the time, I gotta say I agree with you.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you’re talking by TS%, I agree with you

Dude, TS% is the right way to measure scoring efficiency. There is no “otherwise.” Durant is a better, more efficient scorer than Wade or Monta. Given the same number of shot attempts, he scores more points. It’s not a matter of opinion. Please stop embarrassing yourself.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't like to say Durant is "so much better than Monta"

because Durant really only has Monta out-gunned when you take the free-throw shooting dimension of the TS%. In fact, there is a wide gap inbetween Ellis and Durant’s FT percentages, and Durant IS better offensively, but free-throw shooting is only one of three aspects afterall. But I think Monta’s begun to close the the 3-PT gap between him and Durant recently and the difference there should be more negligible soon.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

there is a wide gap inbetween Ellis and Durant’s FT percentages

True, but this has a very minimal effect on their difference in scoring efficiency.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well...in fact he is.

He makes Treys and FTs. That’s about as efficient as you get.

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, yeah, if Chauncey Billups shoots on 20 possessions (including ones he gets fouled, because ignoring those is stupid), he scores more points than almost everyone else in the NBA when they shoot on 20 possessions. So I don’t see what your complaint is about?

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’ve never been big on TS%

You should be. It’s the vastly superior stat. The reason TS% is great and FG% sucks is that TS% really helps reward a player for taking the easy shots- at-rim, from 3, and at the line. FG% only does one of those. eFG% does two of them. To ignore the ability of a player to shoot free throws and get to the line is silly.

Field-goal percentage is my personal favorite measure of a player’s shooting efficiency.

It’s the worst one. At least use eFG%.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's one way FG is better than TS

what if you’re james harden last year? You suck at the rim. You’re good at FT. You make .400 from 3pt land. DO you know how many misses you account for playing like that? And do you know how harmful a miss is? Depending on who rebounds the ball, a miss can be a turnover. Thus, in that limited aspect, having a higher FG% but a low TS% can be better than having a high TS% and a low FG%.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, you've used that example before.
Depending on who rebounds the ball, a miss can be a turnover.

That’s crap. A miss always has a chance of being productive whereas a turnover is always bad.
Remember- the thing about TS% is that it represents the percentage of a player’s possessions that he scores on. A possession is defined as a FGA+FTA*0.44+TO in most of your rate stats. TS% takes out the turnovers because you can’t for sure say that it was gotten in a scoring attempt. TS% is how you use your possessions.
Even then, there are very few circumstances, the 99th percentile, of situations where TS% is inferior to FG%. I’m not even sure if it is.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

what?
That’s crap. A miss always has a chance of being productive whereas a turnover is always bad.

if the opposing team rebounds the ball, then a miss is a turnover. THat’s why I said “Depending on who rebounds”. This is also why misses are ranked so detrimental in Wins Produced stats.

TS% is that it represents the percentage of a player’s possessions that he scores on.

o rly? i think you’re a bit confused. TS is not a rate stat. It has nothing to do with per-possessions or anything. It is strictly an efficiency stat

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

ah i know why you're confused

you’re confusing “scoring possession” with “possession”. Better brush up on your semantics, cuz the two are completely different

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry, I actually just meant scoring possession. I have it right in my head, I just didn’t write it out right. I was comparing the denominator in TS% to the denominator in a rate state because they’re fairly similar looking.
I mean, even in the thing you quoted I said “possessions that he scores on.” I know it’s not specifically “scoring possessions,” but it’s pretty close.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are you actually making a case here, dso? From what I can tell, you seem to be giving a lot of attitude (your usual “I’m intellectually superior to these stat nerd sheep” schtick) and very little substance. Are you actually arguing that FG% is a better measure of scoring efficiency (or correlates better to wins) than TS%? If not, what are you arguing? Enlighten me.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

sure

I’ve made the same stand over and over: each statistic has its uses, but none of them are universally better than one another at all times. There are no absolutes we can throw around here, not with the tools we have now. Our tools are good in limited aspects but we can yet to make blanket conclusions from them.

So yes, TS% is damn good. But if you’re going to say TS IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN FG HAHA, then im gonna pick that bone with you and make sure you understand your point of view before you make such a claim. And for every poster who knows his stuff and can argue such a claim, there are 2 others who just regurgitate what they see other posters do.

And no, i’m not going to make any correlation cases with wins. That’s not my job. And I’m not “intellectually superior”, there are tons of people here smarter than me, but I do make a point of making my own conclusions.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

And I’m not "intellectually superior"

You’re pretty bad at showing that, dude.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough. But the case of Missing Barry and Krazee Max was clearly one where one poster really didn’t understand a metric, and another very patiently, very politely educated him. (I was much more of a douche about it, but that’s ‘cos based on Max’s posting history I had my suspicions he was coming at the issue with a pro-Monta agenda rather than an open mind). Max thanked MB for the education. Case was closed, all was good. What compelled you to then chime in with a bunch of shots at the stat “regurgitators” and philosophical mumbo jumbo about the absence of absolutes is something probably only you can fathom.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

well your timeline and mine is a bit different

i got trolled by gsc (again) and as i was explaining myself these other posts came up so i had to deal.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

But if you’re going to say TS IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN FG HAHA, then im gonna pick that bone with you and make sure you understand your point of view before you make such a claim.

But it is always better. :(

Seriously, though, it contains more useful information about scoring to tell you how a player helped his team win than FG%. It tells you what FG% does, and more. It works better, kinda like how OBP always works better than BA in baseball.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

No disagreements, but an elaboration.

The very limited cases where FG% tells you something that TS% does not is if you’re trying to understand how someone scores. FG% is also one of the more variable components within TS%. While how often a guy gets to the line (as a function of FGA) and FT% once you get there (as little as it influences) are relatively static for players over careers, players can see boosts in their FG% (albeit how this happens isn’t captured in FG% itself as it can come from better shot selection and/or improved shooting range).

Any correlation between FG% and winning is captured within TS%, which does a better job. If the ultimate goal is to win games, then TS% is a much better tool than FG% for evaluating both individual and team performance. It is always better for this.

I suspect strongly that there are a number of people who lose track of that key component, that the measure is being used to determine whose scoring has had a bigger influence on past wins and, since past performance is a rather good indication of future performance, who is more likely to help a team win in the future. Rankings of “better” basketball players that don’t include this don’t mean anything to me. The goal is to win. Using FG% to evaluate how likely someone is to help you win is a poor tool. Using TS% is a good tool. It isn’t much more complex than that.

by jae on Nov 5, 2010 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good followup. FG% does tell you something, and there’s nothing wrong with being interested in what FG% tells you, as you said sometimes it can be interesting information. In terms of how much a player helps his team win, though, it’s not as useful as TS% and doesn’t add any information TS% doesn’t have.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Before telling someone to ‘brush up on…semantics’ you should clean up your own and not use a specific term ‘turnover’ where you really mean “change of possession.” A defensive rebound is not a turnover.

by jae on Nov 5, 2010 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

well i do use the word "can"

and “can” connotes “similarity”. But then we’re just arguing semantics. o wait?

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Your words:

“if the opposing team rebounds the ball, then a miss is a turnover.”

I’m missing where the word “can” is in this statement, but it’s hardly relevant.

A missed shot and defensive rebound is not a turnover. It’s a change of possession. Turnovers, in basketball, refer to something different, a very specific something that’s tracked by the official scorer. The end result is the same — the other team gets the ball. However, when you accuse someone needing to brush up on semantics, you invite criticism where you failed at the same.

by jae on Nov 5, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

. A miss always has a chance of being productive whereas a turnover is always bad.

a turnover by definition is always bad but the act that caused the turnover might be smarter than a bad shot that causes a miss. A turnover caused by an errant pass that was attempting to get the ball to a wide open shooter is better than a miss of an off balance forced shot for instance, the chance of being productive was better for the pass than for the shot.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really don’t understand what you’re going for here, not even a little bit. It appears to me you’re saying “when you miss a shot, it’s bad”. Yeah, we know. That’s why we want to know how many points you’re scoring per time you shoot. What’s the point you’re getting at? If James Harden shoots 100 2 pointers at 50%, he scores 100 points. If he shoots 100 3 pointers at 40%, he scores 120 points. Yet he misses 50 shots the first time and 60 shots the second time, and the second time produces better results for the team. Again, I’m really not sure what you’re getting at. “If you exclude all the makes, he’s hurting his team!” ….so?

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

it's cuz you're only thinking in terms of points

not everything boils down so simply. If you miss a lot of shots, it’s not bad strictly cuz it leads to less points: like you said, it’s possible to score more points while missing more shots thanks to the 3 pointer. But misses lead to change-of-possession opportunites. Change of possession opportunities lead to scoring opportunities. What if (and I know this is impossible) that those ten misses lead to 10 defensive rebounds which then lead to 10 3 pointers made for the opposing team? Highly unlikely, but in this scenario the player with the lower TS% is more conducive to winning.

I hate using such extreme examples, but I think it’s the only way I can get it through to you. “Better results for the team” isn’t always restricted to how many points you score off your shots.

There’s also one more thing you’re not factoring in: the closer you are to the rim when you attempt your shot, the more likely you are to get fouled. So in your example, I think it’s highly unlikely that the guy who attempted 50 2pointers only scores 100 points. The point disparity should be singificantly less than 20 if the guy can make any FT. (And isn’t it weird that a player who scores 120 points off 100 possessions shooting strictly 3pters can have a .600 TS%, but a player who scores 120 points off 2 pointers and free throws only gets a .551 TS%?)

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Change of possession opportunities lead to scoring opportunities. What if (and I know this is impossible) that those ten misses lead to 10 defensive rebounds which then lead to 10 3 pointers made for the opposing team? Highly unlikely, but in this scenario the player with the lower TS% is more conducive to winning.

When you make a shot, it changes the possession. So in terms of comparing the 10 extra misses to the 10 makes of those two players I used as an example, in both cases, the other team gets the ball, as long as they get all 10 rebounds.

I don’t mind extreme examples, by the way – they highlight the point you’re trying to make more clearly. The same point exists once you use more realistic examples, the difference just isn’t as clear. My 2 pointers v 3 pointers example was meant to be extreme, by the way, just to highlight the difference.

So in your example, I think it’s highly unlikely that the guy who attempted 50 2pointers only scores 100 points. The point disparity should be singificantly less than 20 if the guy can make any FT. (And isn’t it weird that a player who scores 120 points off 100 possessions shooting strictly 3pters can have a .600 TS%, but a player who scores 120 points off 2 pointers and free throws only gets a .551 TS%?)

Yeah, that’s why TS% also includes FTA’s. In your example, it looks to me like the player who scored 120 off 2 pointers AND FT’s used more than 100 possessions, hence his lower TS%. If a guy shoots 50% from 2, and 70% from FT, and gets fouled half the time, he makes 25/50 2 point attempts, and 70/100 FT’s. 50 points from 2 pointers and 70 points from FT’s = 120 points on 100 possessions used, just like the 40% on 100 3 pointers, and you get the same TS%, as you should. Now, there is a little uncertainty involved in the FT part of the actual TS% equation (whenever I know the actual number of possessions used I use that as the denominator instead of the estimate in the TS% equation), so I do acknowledge that weakness, but it’s not a very big deal.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

mmm regarding the parenthetical example

i used 100 points off fg’s and 20 points off free throws. You can input the numbers in your spreadsheet yourself

player 1:
- 100 FGA
- 40 FGM
- 120 Points scored
- 0 FT

player 2
- 100 FGA
- 50 FGM
- 120 points scored
- 20 FTA

Run the calculation, then look at your results. .450 difference. wutsupwith that

as for the first part… since jae won’t let me use the term turnover, i’ll say change-of-possession-without-scoring. ? how’s that.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

.045

sorry

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you take 100 FGA’s, and you also take 20 FTA’s, you’re using more than 100 possessions. Your TS% should be lower.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right, there’s some uncertainty, and in small samples, it might even make a difference. Those things tend to cancel out of large samples, though, and whatever bias is left is small. The bias I’m referring to, by the way, is the difference between a given players FTA’s and possessions used. On average, 100 FTA’s = 44 possessions, but it might be a bit different from 44 for some players, but it’s not a big difference.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

plus it's irrelevant

the formula they give us to use doesn’t use possessions, it uses FGA

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right, because possessions aren’t recorded. It’s a weakness in the system. If you know possessions, you can use them instead and you’ll get better results.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

but that's now what's happening, is it?

it’s not like they’re using a different possession-based formula for TS. They’re using the same ones we’re using. From what I see, they’re favoring 3pt shooters not only over 2pt shooters, but also those who get the “traditional” 3 pt play.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

They don’t “favor” 3 point shooters, they simply give them credit for the extra point a made 3 pointer gets. It’s appropriately calculated. There is uncertainty over how many possessions a given number of FT’s represents, though, as I’ve gone over. They use the average for the population, which incorporates and-1’s, getting fouled on 3 pointers (so 3 FTA’s = 1 possession), and technical/flagrant FT’s. It might not perfectly represent the average for an individual, but it should be pretty close, and again, it is taking the “traditional” 3 point play into account.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

but what about the extra point

a make + a foul gets? Why does this shot take a hit in TS% even though they result in the same amount of points? That’s why i used the word “favor”, but I don’t need to if it makes you upset.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 5, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sample size. In a small sample size, yeah, there are going to be errors. Kinda like how a .300 hitter can’t hit .300 in a sample size of 1 – he can only hit .000 or 1.000. As the sample size grows, the denominator (the estimate of # of possessions) will become more accurate. The numerator is points, so it is always accurate. But again, if you know the possessions, the smart thing to do is just calculate TS% with possessions instead of the formula that estimates possessions.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Field-goal percentage is my personal favorite measure of a player’s shooting efficiency.

I’m not going to tell you what you have to like or dislike, but I am going to say that you’re willingly choosing to use a less accurate measure in place of a more accurate one. When it comes to winning games, how well you shoot only shots where you don’t get fouled isn’t nearly as accurate in describing your contributions as a measure of how many points you score per possession you shoot the ball. You DO get an extra point for shooting behind the 3 point line when you make it (FG% ignores that), and you DO score points for your team when you shoot FT’s (FG% ignores these points, as well).

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

actually, the reason I think Durant’s TS% is so high is because he’s an elite free-throw shooter, for his career.

This is basically false. FT% affects TS% pretty marginally. Durant could have shot free throws last season at, say, 75% (Monta’s clip) and Monta could have shot them at 90% (Durant’s clip) and Durant would still have been a vastly more efficient scorer.

Field-goal percentage is my personal favorite measure of a player’s shooting efficiency.

I personally think the earth is flat. Do I get a cookie?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Honestly, Sleepy, I did not understand TS% at all...

I mean, how free-throws fit into the equation. You guys are really putting me on right now.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

So wait, are you guys telling me that Shaq has a very high

career TS%, not because he actually knocked down many of his free-throws, but because he was such a threat to draw so many fouls in the first place (and thus, be in position to score more points)? Or do centers generally not have high TS percentages in general just because they don’t shoot 3s??

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, keep in mind C’s usually have higher FG%‘s than any other position since they generally shoot from really close to the hoop (and their misses when they’re fouled don’t count under FG%). Shaq going to the line actually hurt his TS%, since he shot a higher percentage on FG’s than FT’s, but since his FG% was so high from taking all his shots at the rim, he was an efficient scorer in spite of his FT woes.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

So I’m guessing the fact that most centers don’t attempt 3-PT shots doesn’t hurt their TS percentages? Because the shots they don’t attempt don’t get factored?

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly. Even though they can’t shoot 3’s well, as long as they don’t attempt 3 pointers it doesn’t hurt them.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually, looking at Shaq, interestingly enough it looked like his FT’s were almost exactly as efficient as his 2 pointers, once you account for the fact that many of his FTA’s were actually And-1 FTA’s and thus did not use up an actual possession. TS% does account for And-1’s by the way, but not perfectly.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

So the And 1s

count as part of the field-goal I guess?

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, basically TS% assumes that shooting 100 FT’s counts as 44 possessions, because of And-1’s, technical/flagrant fouls, and fouls on 3 pointers (so you shoot 3 FT’s). On average, this is true. It’s not perfect for every player, but I think any inaccuracy is small and you’re safe ignoring that. I wish box scores had better details so we could keep track of shots by possession so we wouldn’t have this issue…but it’s what we have to work with, so it’s the best we can do given our data.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

(Edit: see MB’s response).

Here were last year’s NBA leaders in TS%, which should give you a sense of the variety of different ways in which a player can be an efficient scorer:

1. Nene Hilario-DEN .630
2. Dwight Howard-ORL .630
3. Marc Gasol-MEM .617
4. Steve Nash-PHO .615
5. Amare Stoudemire-PHO .615
6. Corey Maggette-GSW .615
7. Kendrick Perkins-BOS .613
8. Paul Pierce-BOS .613
9. Andrew Bynum-LAL .609
10. Kevin Durant-OKC .607

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought Batum was on that list too,

but I guess he didn’t qualify or something.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

A lot of Centers.

I guess it’s true that free-throw shooting efficiency really isn’t that important.

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well also keep in mind if a guy has a TS% of 60%, all he really needs to do is shoot ~55-60% from the FT line for his TS% not to go down. FT’s really are the most efficient shot in basketball, and other than a really, really small group of terrible FT shooters, it’s still an efficient shot.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just out of curiosity,

anybody know Michael Jordan’s career TS%?

by Krazee max on Nov 4, 2010 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

56.9% for his career, with 4 straight seasons in his prime above 60%. His last 2-3 seasons brought his career average down considerably, which is understandable. Basketball-reference.com is a great place to look for stats.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

And a point worth considering, I’m not positive but I think the average TS% has gone up over time, so if you compared Jordan to the average player of his era he would look better than if you compared him to the current average.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think both of those are probably true, as well. I’d also guess players are more skilled now than they used to be, for a variety of reasons (start playing/training earlier, drawing from a bigger population, etc)….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

A lot of people think the old hand checking rules made a difference, too, which would definitely mean players didn’t use to take as high quality shots….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant is one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA, and he does it while scoring as much, or more than, every other player in the NBA. He IS an elite scorer. He might be the single best scorer in the NBA. Last year, he was the best scorer in the NBA, taking not only volume, but also efficiency, into account.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant is legit, no question there unless you are fooled by his to date small sample size showing. We can all think bigger than that.

What I originally meant was that it is important to understand how the stats are derived when evaluating a player’s value. I hate making examples because some moron will find some reason why it isn’t the perfect example and ignore the point but here I go….

If Beidrins was asked to play point guard because we had a dumb coach and a bunch of injuries and his TO ratio was the leagues worst ever would he really be a terrible player we should trade and bash? Or, do we have bright enough minds to understand the situation he’s playing in and make the judgment to pass on Mayo and Thubust for Monta Ellis?

Now, I appreciate the use of stats as much as anyone. There is nothing wrong with the stats themselves but they are not a complete science like math. They have to be interpreted and a level of judgment has to be exercised in understanding their them in context.

We happen to have a lot of good basketball minds on this board and we have a lot of smart people who are great with stats and numbers but they are both damned without eachother.

by Balance on Nov 4, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

We happen to have a lot of good basketball minds on this board and we have a lot of smart people who are great with stats and numbers but they are both damned without eachother

Meh, sounds like a false dichotomy. Are you suggesting that none of the “smart people who are great with stats” are also “great basketball minds”?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

No. Think harder and try again.

by Balance on Nov 4, 2010 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s the strong implication of your statement. Maybe think harder and try rephrasing it?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually

that’s exactly what that quote says. You are setting up 2 separate groups.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

that’s exactly what that quote says. You are setting up 2 separate groups

and he left out those of us who are good at both :>)

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Durant has never struck me as a particularly efficient scorer.

This would indicate that what “strikes you” is a worthless measure, a poor, poor, poor reflection of reality. Durant has been an above average efficiency scorer over the last few years. It doesn’t matter if it “strikes you” or not. It’s a fact, as much as water is wet.

by jae on Nov 4, 2010 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jae it "strikes me"...

have you ever heard of dry water? o.O

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not being sarcastic by the way

Just trying to be an A-hole because there is such thing as dry water, thus rendering the fact that “water is wet” useless and not a fact anymore.

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

water is the state of liquid h2o, so I would say yes water is always wet.

by eldingo on Nov 5, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

So happy with Dorell Wright

he’s so much better for this team than Maggette and at 1/3 of the cost. Amazing addition.

David Lee cracks me up. 9 offensive rebounds, probably half of which were rebounding his own missed lay-ups. Love his hustle. Very happy he’s a Warrior.

Andris did stink up the joint last night for the most part, but I still really enjoy watching him and Lee battle for boards. Can’t wait to see Amundson get in the mix too.

Loving Monta’s game right now. Last night definitely proved that no matter how tempting it is for Smart to run Monta out there for all 48 minutes, he needs to give me a little breather. Don’t think it’s a coincidence at all that Monta exploded for 17 points in the 4th quarter after getting the rest. Doubt that happens without it. What a great performance to close out the game

by sjsnider on Nov 4, 2010 9:30 AM PDT reply actions  

no matter how tempting it is for Smart to run Monta out there for all 48 minutes, he needs to give me a little breather. Don’t think it’s a coincidence at all that Monta exploded for 17 points in the 4th quarter after getting the rest. Doubt that happens without it. What a great performance to close out the game

You don’t say… ;-)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Amundson

Will be a great addition when he’s back.

by Billy Frijoles on Nov 4, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love everything right now

No complaints, Loving the players, coaches, front office. This is fun :)

" Only build on positives , don't stack the negatives...Instead of criticizing , what was a positive?" - Donavin Darius

‎"There is nothing like a wise phrase or quote to help convince others that your decision makes sense." - Anon

"If you're ever in a fair fight, then your tactics suck." ಠ_ಠ

by dubzfan on Nov 4, 2010 9:34 AM PDT reply actions  

Isn't it?

There is so much to be happy about right now. I was at the parade, and it was unreal. I hate big crowds, but I had a great time in SF yesterday. I made it home in time for the Dubz game and it was a fun one to watch. I just kept thinking, which one of these Grizzley’s will be a Warrior next year. LOL
Monta was a beast, not only scoring, but passing and getting other guys involved. We may still have holes, but I’m love’n this new look Warriors.

by WestCoastWarrior on Nov 4, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

+1

It’s been a GREAT week in bay area sports!

Type the words RUN TMC in Ebay!
Type the words RUN TMC in Ebay!
Raider fans copy & paste 130446336606 in Ebay!
Raider fans copy & paste 130446336606 in Ebay!

by JonDoe on Nov 4, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Bay Area has

been buzzing these last few weeks. I’m loving it.

Good Bay Area Sports teams = happiness :D

by Jayd92009 on Nov 4, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Watching the game, I didn’t see Biedrins “stinking it up.” He got double-teamed, when he tried to post up, interestingly, and I thought his defense looked fair much of the time. His stats didn’t show the effort. It wasn’t a great game on his part but just watching made me think he had a good effort on defense.

The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.

by Naticus on Nov 4, 2010 10:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Agreed. Watching Biedrins didn’t give me an impression that he was stinking things up. The stats line indicates Biedrins had an off game on the glass and wasn’t really a factor on offense, but Gasol, one of the other “2nd tier centers” who looked like an all-star against us a year ago, was held to a much more modest performance.

I expect the other Gasol, Dwight Howard, Stoudemire, Bosh and Duncan to have big games against us. They’re players of the caliber where only the absolute best defenders in the game are going to force them into off nights and Biedrins isn’t one of those guys. But if he can hold other guys to their averages he’s doing his job, unexciting as it will appear.

by jae on Nov 4, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agree with you two. Didn’t think Andris stunk it up at all. The zone they were playing really limited his contributions on offense, but at the same time opened things up for others (Dorell especially). Not Andris’ fault he wasn’t a big contributor offensively, it was just how the D was playing things. He could have rebounded a little better, but oh well, it’s not like the guy he was guarding was getting tons of boards over him or anything. Their best player only had 10 points, 8 boards, and 2 assists, which is perfectly fine by me. I thought Andris played fine. Sometimes the D takes a player out of the game, in this case it was Andris, and sometimes the missed shots just don’t bounce your direction. Oh well.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Really wish Vlad could be a zone buster.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Nov 4, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

His outside shot really looks broken these days, doesn’t it? Most of the time he’s not even close, even when he’s left wide open. Unless he can rediscover his old 35-40% 3 pt stroke, or anywhere close, I’d just as soon give all his minutes to the Wright Brothers, Carney, and Adrien.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

His outside shot really looks broken these days, doesn’t it?

Ha, yeah the only one I remember him making was the one where he caught the ball at his shoe laces and went up with his shot. Maybe he should incorporate a toe touch into his shooting form.

by olympicmike on Nov 4, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s the best way of describing his effect I’ve seen. If you dressed him up to swashbuckle, he’d be a pyrite.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

And yet he shows just enough to keep his coach on the hook

I’m not sure what the coaches look at, though. Do they have no idea how bad he is statistically?

by Evanz on Nov 4, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Practice player?

For the most part, practices run at a (sometimes significant) fraction of game speed. Vladi’s flaws show up much more at game speed, I’m sure. It takes a lot of discipline to bench someone who works hard, has a good attitude, tries to do what you tell him to, looks great in practice, and you’re paying him a lot.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Do they have no idea how bad he is statistically?

Clearly not, or Adrien would be playing.

Raspu10, I noticed on your blog that you posit the question of whether Riley is a closet stat head, or whether he has just lucked into acquiring high WP48 type players. My guess is that he is just a good enough evaluator of talent, in the old school sense, that he is able to occupy the middle ground in the ven-diagram between pure statistical analysis and “gut feeling.” Quite often when a player is really good (insofar as contributing to winning, a la David Lee), he is going to look good on paper and on film. But I kinda doubt he’s running the models.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 4, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I kinda doubt he’s running the models.

I would have agreed with you two months ago, but I’m getting suspicious. The Warrior director of player personnel was supposed to be present at the D-League draft helping Musselman – and quite a bit of Musselman’s discussion of the draft focused on using stats to evaluate a large pool of talent.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

From my own experiences, I don’t think coaches do a good enough job of objectively evaluating their players play at all levels (and I did have a former NBA coach as a coach back in my playing days) – there’s a lot more than just games that go into a coaches decision on who to play. It’s about rewarding hard work and hustle, trying to get players that play the way the coach wants his team to play, knowing the proper reads and rotations to make, playing well during practice and/or during games, etc. It’s not too hard to lose track of the end goal (winning games) and forget how bad of an overall defender/rebounder Vlad is when you see him make a couple hustle plays and do a better job of consistently running the offense/defense the coach is trying to implement on a day-in, day-out basis (including practice). Or when you see Vlad hitting shots in warmups and shooting drills during practice consistently and forget that he hasn’t been knocking them down in games. And some times coaching moves are more of a long term thing – if a worse player shows the right attitude/work ethic, giving him PT to try to wake up a more talented player who may not be realizing his potential (a certain someone no longer on the team comes to mind here) might be a sound strategy. Sometimes there are good reasons to play a guy like Vlad, even despite poor production. Other times….well, coaches aren’t perfect, like the rest of us, they make mistakes, and research suggests humans don’t necessarily do a very good job of evaluating their options when presented with too much information on each option (like watching warmups, practice, film and trying to evaluate every single part of a players game)…so, sometimes they get it wrong. I think with Vlad playing we’re getting it wrong, but I do understand how he can fool a coach into thinking he should play.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I understand it too, but all you have to do is watch the film (which they already do) and you very quickly realize that we are objectively worse with him on the floor. It shouldn’t take long to come to terms with that reality. Not being able to see the forest for the trees is hardly a calling card for a coach.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 5, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

double-rec (supa and raspu10)

I’ve always been totally clueless about how Vlad gets so much playing time.
Great explanations…Still not sure why the coaching staff can’t see that he sucks from the game film reviews…but this does explain it to the extent possible.

Watching the games, I literraly get mad when he checks in…“WTF are you thinking coach?”

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Keep in mind a couple things.

1) he’s an under rated defender. His effort is always there and he knows where to be, how to rotate, etc. which is a lot more than a lot of players on this team. For a coach trying to get his team to give defensive effort, you’ve got to reward the guys who do so the rest of the team gets the message.

2) Smart is coaching a team of proffessionals. These guys are playing for money. It’s there job. You can’t just throw a camp invite into the rotation without the threat of losing the locker room. there will be opportunities for Adrien, trust me. I happen to feel the same and want to see him play more too but, it has to be done in certain order. You vets, and players have to trust Smart as the coach and know he won’t turn on them. Once you have thier loyalty you can get them to sacrafice for the team. Play into roles that get the team wins.

by Balance on Nov 4, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

1) he’s an under rated defender. His effort is always there and he knows where to be, how to rotate, etc. which is a lot more than a lot of players on this team. For a coach trying to get his team to give defensive effort, you’ve got to reward the guys who do so the rest of the team gets the message.

Well, I’m not sure he is an underrated defender. I do think you’re on to something with the second part, I wouldn’t be surprised if when Smart and the team watch film and stuff, Vlad is making the right rotation and is where he needs to be on the court more often than some other guys (especially inexperienced guys like Adrien). Coaches reward that stuff, and sometimes it’s not clear how to properly value a players defense when you’re watching film and analyzing every player play by play and rotation by rotation the way the coaches are doing. I can definitely see them overemphasizing making those rotations and knowing where to be as part of the coaching process, or even just using it as a learning tool for the other players (do this and you earn PT kinda thing). That said, I don’t think Vlad deserves much credit for his D. He’s pretty freaking terrible on the ball, doesn’t have a real position (from the sense that he isn’t good enough outside to guard 3’s and is even worse inside when guarding 4’s) and can’t rebound at all. He was getting beat consistently last night.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

2) Smart is coaching a team of proffessionals. These guys are playing for money. It’s there job. You can’t just throw a camp invite into the rotation without the threat of losing the locker room.

I really disagree here. These guys are all on guaranteed contracts and are getting paid no matter what. It isn’t like football where they can just be cut tomorrow. There may be a certain element of sympathy for a guy entering his free-agency period, but “losing the locker room” seems far more likely to happen when a highly paid, ineffective vetran is getting burn over better options.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 5, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Andris is still stinking it up on offense

Alright, I take that back. For some unknown reasons, he avg. about 5 shoots per game these pass 4 game. (making a huge whopping assets of .60% I am going to assume that’s huge for a C) With that in mind, why does he not shoot more?

Is it because he doesn’t have enough touches? Not enough plays? Not aggressive enough on taking the bigs down?
David Lee?
Afraid there may be a possiblity of making freethrows?
Zone defense? (c’mon now, most of the guys didn’t play well in the zone)

I guess, the coaches needs to add on more plays or something. If Andris doesn’t look pushover (did i just say that? sorry andris!) out there he would somewhat appear to be an offensive threat. (Brandan?)

And stop making those silly fouls!

Oh, Andris putback towards to end of the fourth (I believe his ONLY made basket) was highly appreciated from Monta missed shot. Perhaps, stats don’t really tell the whole story…

by Shells on Nov 4, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Andris is still stinking it up on offense Alright, I take that back

 Where did you say that? I don’t find it up above?
     I guess it really depends on how good you want your center to be and where you draw the line between adequate and stinking it up :>) Dre has a very limited skill set so not much more can be expected from him than rebounding and easy shots at the rim.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Nov 4, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dude racks up so many fouls in so few minutes

You cannot be effective playing like that. He should have fouled out but they called Reggie Williams for the foul instead.

by Billy Frijoles on Nov 4, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

It does help a C keep his fouls down when the wings do a good job of keeping their man away from the rim. Just saying’….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyone else think outside of Monta, that 4thQ offense straight up sucked.

I thought Smart could’ve done a better job focusing his guys and forcing them to run some plays (like the motion offense we’ve heard so much about) to kill some clock time.

Luckily Monta was hot out there tonight and helped us pull that win out in the 4th while the game was still up for grabs.

When our subs were in, I was worried. They couldn’t really stop Memphis, and couldn’t really get great looks. We need all our guys healthy.

It was an okay win for this years team. They could’ve played better, but a win is a win. I doubt they win this type of game last year with Memphis really shooting well last night, and we definitely don’t win that rebounding battle. I’ll take it.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Nov 4, 2010 11:45 AM PDT reply actions  

I didn't mind the 4th quarter adjustments

When the Grizzlies went to a zone in second half it really disrupted the motion offense as the Grizzlies players were floating into the passing lanes and moving well. I liked that the Warriors started using high screens to get Monta and Reggie into the lane and attacking the rim. Gasol is a good player but he doesn’t protect the rim all that well and Monta was able to use his quickness to get by him almost at will in the 4th quarter.

I was getting worried that the Warriors were telegraphing their passes too much, and freed from man-to-man responsibilities the Grizzlies defenders were just watching the ball and disrupting a lot of the passes. Moving to more of an isolation offense and using screens to help our scorers get into the lane seemed like a good adjustment.

by OkayJay81 on Nov 4, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Monta had some sloppy plays near the ended of the Q. (driving into the lane and losing the ball, and was it a sloppy pass to dorell?)

And Monta didn’t played the whole 4th. I believe Reggie was doing well with his drives at the beginning of the fourth. I can’t remember everything from the fourth, but I’m gonna say it’s a team effort.

And Monta nailing those FT helped seal the game. Smart (such a fitting name) calling a timeout to draw up a play before the ball was inbounded…

by Shells on Nov 4, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I liked how self-satisfied Smart looked after running that play. It was like he was envisioning Nellie sitting courtside.

Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!

by Supafishal on Nov 4, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was a nice play. I liked it. Our announcers got on Conely I think for what he did, but I thought he played it right – the switch was the right move, but clearly they didn’t communicate it well enough.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Smart

I think Keith Smart, especially when Monta is not on the floor, needs to run a designed play to close out quarters. The Monta Iso is definitely fun to watch (with mixed results) but the Reggie Willams iso is an eyesore and totally ineffective. Can’t we have some pick and roll, ball movement, etc.? I see many wide open kick out 3’s developing from that.

Minor beef though.

Smart has been good with the bench. I think, while some of our lineups look terrible, I’m glad Smart isn’t afraid to play Charlie Bell, Gadz, etc. if he has to. He recognizes that we have to rest players, and that is a good thing.

Isn’t it amazing that we have come to the point that w/o Curry we can rest Monta and still come out on top? I am enjoying this.

by Billy Frijoles on Nov 4, 2010 2:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Gadz has looked suprisingly effective

Great contribution on opening night. But he started to push the talent-envelope there a little bit and made some bad, bad choices.
As long as he can keep it cool, I don’t mind seeing him get some more minutes

"There's more to life than basketball. I can't play this game my whole life. I'm just trying to figure out what I like to do and meet some cool people along the way." -Chris Bosh

by Duby Dub Dubs on Nov 4, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have that same criticism of almost all coaches. I generally hate iso’s, but especially at the end of a Q, because usually that’s not an iso taking advantage of a mismatch (which is the only time iso’s are good), which makes it a bad play. Iso’s are pretty much the least effective plays there are. Why coaches don’t at least run a pick and roll blows my mind.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fear of turnovers

I think in that situation most coaches prioritize getting a shot off… not necessarily a good shot, but just a shot from your best offensive player. The more moving parts, the more likely you won’t execute properly, and run the risk of ending up with a turnover or the ball in the wrong guys hands as the clock runs out. At least that’s what I think the conventional wisdom is.

I actually agree with you though. Isolation is generally bad basketball IMO. Especially if it’s not something you do regularly. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen a team abandon their system to run an iso at the end of a game. It seems like a bit of a coaching cop out to me. It puts all the pressure on the player to create his own opportunity, and if the shot doesn’t fall the coach can always say that he put the ball in his best players hands (as if that is the only reasonable option at the end of a game).

by olympicmike on Nov 4, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, and the thing is, it’s not like a PnR is any worse than that. You can still get the ball to your best player. It’s still a situation where you should get a shot off, only now, you have an offensive advantage you don’t have in an iso situation. Overall, it will result in better scoring %‘s. I think beyond just coaching, it’s likely one of those things where players expect that, as well. It’s great to tell a player you want him to run a pick and roll, but if Kobe waives it off, what are you going to do, you know? I think to some degree players expect you to do it and so there’s pressure on coaches to do it from that.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Monta's

inefficiency was due to the fact that nelly played him and never took him out even if he was cold or was tired(never seemed like he was though). Just kept letting him shoot his way out of a slump. But now we got a sensible coach that sat monta till the crucial moments in the 4th and let him explode. Man I know we aren’t Lakers good, but really how good are we?

by GSWeri on Nov 4, 2010 2:39 PM PDT reply actions  

I wonder

How much of Monta’s new found efficiency can be attributed to the emphasis in the motion offense?

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Inefficiency was due to the fact that nelly played him and never took him out even if he was cold or was tired(never seemed like he was though)

Was it? Can you find evidence to support this notion? For example, if this were true, you might expect to see Monta’s efficiency be much better in the 1Q, before he gets tired, right?

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I want Lee with the ball in his hands more. He's a really good offensive player.

And in Curry’s hand, and i want Monta getting his offense off of other guys(because he’s really good getting his points on fastbreak, cuts, screens), but if he can keep this up i’m all for it, I just want to run MUCH more pick and rolls. (smart, why did we even acquire Lee, if we won’t use him in the pick and roll, he’s one of the best in the league at it).
Wow, Monta’s playing really well but when he starts to regress to the mean, i hope Smart adjusts instead of keeping the ball in his hands so often.
Pretty much Smart’s a huge step down from Nellie in terms of tactics, and a huge step up in player motivation and cohesion. Take your pick.

by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 4, 2010 4:22 PM PDT reply actions  

So pretty much, if he has an off game, you're

going to have one of the rants about how he is not a good player and he should come off the bench… Lol….too many wants coming from a blogger

No electro, no metro, a little retro. Ahhhhhhhh.. perfecto

by Percie Harvin on Nov 4, 2010 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Strawman!

Where did i say such things. I said if he regresses to the mean, i’d prefer it if we started giving Steph and Lee the ball more? Unreasonable? Nope.

by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 4, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

you're right..I just could imagine you saying that......

Sorrrrrrry. I’ll play nice.. Just too wants in that rant.

No electro, no metro, a little retro. Ahhhhhhhh.. perfecto

by Percie Harvin on Nov 4, 2010 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok, but I did apologize and you failed

to recognize that. But I can still see you saying something like that..

No electro, no metro, a little retro. Ahhhhhhhh.. perfecto

by Percie Harvin on Nov 4, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Your apology kinda seemed sarcastic. You stressed the r when you typed it which is exactly how most people would sarcastically say sorry.

I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.

by Reverend_Randy on Nov 4, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can't believe nobody has touched on Carney in this thread!

Aside from Monta and Dorell’s performances, how are Carney’s multiple hilarious turnovers not the next biggest story of the game?? According to MTII’s article today Smart gave him the green light to run the ball down the floor, and in case you didn’t notice, the result was Carney dribbling full speed toward the opposite end, and then somewhere between the half-court line and the bucket he just kind of, well, let go of the ball, multiple times! It was like watching a 7th grade girls basketball player with a 40-inch vertical! At one point he took it all the way to the rack, lowered the ball into a scooping pass/finish position (there was a teammate following the play), and then just let go of it, about two feet from the basket! Ridiculous!

Then of course there were Dorell’s multiple pull-up jumpers on the fast break…(barf!)

Amnesty for all immigrants! Boycott Arizona! RIP GURU

by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Nov 4, 2010 6:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Weird where'd all the Monta haters go?

Jump off that bandwagon too? No more trade talks?

F the Po Po

by bojangles408 on Nov 4, 2010 7:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I am fiending to watch some Warriors, and cannot wait until I have time to do so…but the end result of 3-1 with only a loss to the Lakers looks very good. I guess this game was close, but with no Curry, the margin of victory is meaningless.

What’s up with the lack of Gadzuric-DNP: Coach’s Decisions though? Is Adrien not on the active roster?

by belilaugh on Nov 4, 2010 7:29 PM PDT reply actions  

I imagine Smart is looking for someone with real C size. I can’t disagree with him too much, here, honestly. Until Amudson/Udoh come back, I think we do need Gadz to play a little bit.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

How tall is Adrien? I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him play before. I know he was on UConn but I never really watched them.

by belilaugh on Nov 4, 2010 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

He is 6'7"

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, let’s put it this way, I’m much more content with Keith Smart’s idea of playing something close to a replacement level C at big man instead of a solid guard like Reggie Williams at big man the way Nellie would. No, Gadz is not as good a player as Reggie, but he’s better at playing big man than Reggie is.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I also think I’m a little higher on Gadz than some others. That he can play a little D and rebound a bit seems to me like it gives him at least a little value. He’s not very good, and I’m looking forward to getting Amudson back, but I really don’t think he’s a terrible option for 5th big man, and even better option for 6th big man, of course….

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Very strange case, is Dan. He’s definitely playing better ball than he has, but his shooting is horrendous. Put him in against the Thabeets and Theo Ratcliffs and he can handle it. Starting centers will just eat him up.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

By the way, random commet of the day, but I’ve been watching some NBA on TNT tonight and I just want to say…I forgot what a freak Rose was over the offseason. Man he’s a great athlete. I think I was underselling him some. I’m back on the Rose bandwagon. That dunk was stupid.

by Missing Barry on Nov 4, 2010 9:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Oh come on, you know humans can't objectively remember information ;)

He’s playing pretty well, but taking too many shots but who else is going to take them i guess.

by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 4, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Monta is a great basketball player...

He has his bad nights. He’s made poor decisions. He’s had defensive lapses. But he’s a great player. Not in the league of the Kobes and LeBrons, but in his league of great players, they all have bad days and stretches, and those guys often get blamed for a team’s poor performance, because they can’t be spectacular EVERY night….
I’m glad Monta is showing his value this season to the fans. I never liked when fans talked of replacing him… (replace him with who? how many players better than him are available? Seriously.) I think he’s great, and that we’re lucky to have him. I hope he retires as a Warrior, really.

by miguelp on Nov 4, 2010 9:26 PM PDT reply actions  

How would you like to have the 2nd best player in NBA playing for the Dubs?

Monta wasn’t joking. Well, at least through the first 4 games, he’s right up there.

He might be our best player since Sprewell. Curry’s not there yet.

by JSML on Nov 4, 2010 9:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Both Baron and Curry were/are significantly more valuable players than Sprewell was, imo. Spree was a great defender, but not particularly good at anything else. Shooting guards who can score in volume at low efficiency and play a little D aren’t that tough to come by.

Also, four game sample size aside, Monta over his career hasn’t really been as good as Baron (in his prime) or Curry.

But hey, as long as were talking small sample sizes: so far this season, Steph is averaging 22.4 pts and 9.3 assists per 36 with a TS% of .720. ;-)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

*

er, make that “we’re talking,” with a much-neglected apostrophe. I’m picking up some poor habits on this site… :-(

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

HIs 1996-97 season was fantastic — probably the only season in which he was deserving. All-star voters tend to be overly impressed by players who can hoist up a bunch of shots, often with little regard to how efficiently they do so.

I still think that Baron, when healthy, was a better player, with a bigger impact on the team. Curry mostly seemed to me like a better, more valuable player than Spree in the second half of last season, though it’s still early times. He probably needs another season or two to show that second-half of last season wasn’t an outlier like Spree’s ’96-97.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 5, 2010 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, are we talking about “deserving” All-Star or fringe high-volume low efficiency shooter kind of All-Star?

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

when i saw the # of posts this thread had

i knew it had to be some sort of discussion about TS%. Actually, discussion is too kind of a word: i’d say regurgitation is more apt.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 9:54 PM PDT reply actions  

subject

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

sure

=) looks delicious

Seriously, don’t you get tired of this “advanced stats” chorus posting synchronously every time a poster doesn’t understand the acronyms and jargon thrown around here and has the audacity to question them? It gets old cuz it always follows the same pattern : poster skepticism → introduction of new terms by enlightened stat guy→ support from stat guy’s friends —> poster wrestles with newfound information —> poster expresses unending gratitude, tears flow —> poster goes on a short term statistics-based post-a-thon.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

—> dso chimes in just to show everyone how much more enlightened and independent-thinking he is than everyone else, without really making a persuasive case for anything in particular. ;-P

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Nov 4, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

lol

STRAWMAN!

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

At least they are trying to serve a purpose.

I have no idea what you are trying to do except complain about it.

The San Francisco 49ers, inventing new ways to lose every week!

by Badly Browned on Nov 4, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

i think it's ok to complain about it

And the complaint in itself does serve a purpose. I remember a fanshot a few months back where someone had the audacity to scream out against the statophiles. It was quickly closed, but before it did there were many posts in agreement. And in a way, it looked like the dying gasp of the ignorant, the sports fan who is fanatical about his team, player, whatever, without any higher knowledge or proof. It was kinda sad to see, not cuz it was ignorant, but because this site, which was made for fanatics of a superficial sporting team, has lost a lot of its blind faith.

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

do you have the stats on that, or are you going on intangibles?

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Nov 4, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

…looked like a discussion to me.

by Missing Barry on Nov 5, 2010 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Observations

1. Monta is playing, so far, much smarter ball. I’ve been hard on this side of his game while always recognizing his amazingness, but i have to say it, so far Monta is playing more under control, recognizing when to slow up and not just “shoot when in doubt.”

2. Some of us tried to “tell you so” regarding Dorell. He’s clearly hot, but even when he’s not, his size/length helps (especially with our porous Lee/AB frontcourt.) GREAT signing.

3. Nice to see Reginald starting to feel it again.

4. While it’s nice to win, and past W’s teams may have blown these easy early games, other than the Laker game the W’s have played Hou without Ming and when they were playing the 2nd of a back to back, the Clips WITH Baron, and Memphis on the 2nd night of back to back without a guy who routinely kills the W’s, Zach R.

Sure, one game was won without Curry, a great sign, but, and especially for a young team, the road is another beast altogether.

5. All that said, the timing has really helped the gelling process. We lost Curry when we wouldn’t have beaten the Lakers down there anyway and had Mem shorthanded too, and on 2nd of back to back. (I think he should sit more, really make it right. Utah is tough, but much easier at home, and it would be so foolish to lose Steph out of early greediness.)

This road trip is where i’ll start really getting excited if the Warriors continue to perform and win (although it’s relatively speaking, a very easy road trip.) Until then, well, it beats losing and it’s what good teams do with such stretches.

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 4, 2010 11:27 PM PDT reply actions  

we need curry for this road trip

as talented monta is, he can still be stopped. it’s not a bad thing, most players can be stopped if a team decides to expend their efforts in that direction. but curry’s shot is unstoppable, one of those force-of-nature type things, and when our offense goes stagnant we’re gonna need him to jumpstart us

Goal: 8 seed!

by dso on Nov 4, 2010 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

What is "need?"

I’d rather have Curry miss the roadtrip if it means getting him healthy, fully healthy going forward from there.

It is a relatively easy roadtrip too. Not saying we’re good enough to view things that way, but it is much easier than many many trips, and even without Curry we could steal one or maybe two.

But, i agree. With Curry we’d have a legit shot at a rarity for the Ws: the multiple win road trip. But the team HAS TO think long term and not get too tempted. Curry is just too key to lose him long term for such shortsightedness.

When he says he’s ready i’d wait one more game. Plus, if he can’t move side to side, he isn’t going to guard Deron Williams effectively anyway.

But Curry is young and chomping at the bit. I wouldn’t be surprised if he heals quickly. If he’s out there i really hope the team is SURE.

by supersugarCrisp on Nov 5, 2010 12:19 AM PDT reply actions  

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