The case for the Warriors trading for Luis Scola or Marc Gasol
by RayAlmeda on Dec 29, 2010 11:24 PM PST
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The Warriors could have a plethora of quality of big men available to them via trade.
LUIS SCOLA - HOUSTON ROCKETS
Luis Scola is a good player with great percetages in FG (52% career) and FT (73%) for a center. He's having a career year of 20ppg and 8rbs but could be great targets if the Warriors give up some expiring contracts to help Houston quicken the rebuiling process. This would be ideal because of his polished skill-set down low. He might be 6'9, but 250 pounds is enough beef down there. Ekpe Udoh can take care of the length problem potentially down the road.
MARC GASOL - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Marc Gasol is more realistic option, since he would be the odd man out of the Grizzlies, who could suddenly turn to a team with lots of cap space. He has similar numbers to Scola (55% FG career) and (71% FT) with good defensive reach. A one-two punch with him, a healthy Biedrins, Udoh and Amundson would be a formidable blocking bunch.Just think of Marc Gasol against his brother in numerous matchups for the years to come. Hmmm..
Would this be enough to make the Warriors a playoff team? A championship team?
It's one option I hope our new owners can be involved in.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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So how do we get them?
No to Scola, he’s a Lee clone
"There is nothing like a wise phrase or quote to help convince others that your decision makes sense." - Anon
"If you're ever in a fair fight, then your tactics suck." ಠ_ಠ
Yeah, he is kind of Lee-ish
not quite the passer or rebounder, but a more capable scorer.
It's biodigital jazz, man.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 30, 2010 12:36 AM PST up reply actions
I think his game compliment's Lee EXCEPT for fact he's only 6-9
If either scola or Lee were 2 inches taller, I’d be in favor. But if either were 2 inches taller (with same skill set) it’s likely they’d be max contract players.
Scola has good defensive fundamentals and is very aggressive
But he has physical limitations.
Put it this way, if you put him in Udoh’s body you would have a top teif defensive power forward.
Picks would be helpful you’d think in a situation like this. However we don’t have that luxury to dangle our first/future first. I’d be more than willing to take on Scola and his contract. I wouldn’t mind trading for Gasol either. But I wanna know how much he’ll command first.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
LOL!
just what I was going to say too!
Pao has a very sultry look on his face
Gratitude is not only the greatest of virtues, but the parent of all others.
-Cicero
by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 30, 2010 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
haha
Pau: Hmm your beard smells good. Rubs arm you are way more manly than me too.
by I.Eat.Sleep.Warriors on Dec 30, 2010 4:11 PM PST up reply actions
I want Gasol on our team pretty badly….he’s basically #1 on my list of players we could realistically get.
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
I agree. I doubt we’ll have the money to sign him, comparing our cap space with some other teams. If we’re gonna get him, it’ll have to be via trade.
by Uwe Blog on Dec 31, 2010 1:58 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
We need a Center
Who can either score down low or command the paint.
Marc gasol or Deandre Jordan would be sick to have.
by Anonymous1337 on Dec 30, 2010 2:33 AM PST via mobile reply actions
How do we get Jordan?
I think LAC wants him as there future center, seeing as though they want to lose Kaman
"There is nothing like a wise phrase or quote to help convince others that your decision makes sense." - Anon
"If you're ever in a fair fight, then your tactics suck." ಠ_ಠ
We'd have to overpay him.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Deandre jordan
think he’s a free agent this coming offseason
by Anonymous1337 on Dec 30, 2010 3:04 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Doesn't he have a rookie option though?
I’d love him but I don’t think we can get him
"There is nothing like a wise phrase or quote to help convince others that your decision makes sense." - Anon
"If you're ever in a fair fight, then your tactics suck." ಠ_ಠ
nice post, but...
Would this be enough to make the Warriors a playoff team? A championship team?
I dunno. The question is really hard to answer without agreeing on what it would take for us to get one (Gasol) or both of these guys.
It would have improved the post if you would have offered up a couple of plans
Although I do agree that both guys would be welcome addition to our squad, I’m not sure that overpaying for Gasol in free agency is going to be the one move that gets us to the playoffs every year. Not a bad move…but we still would need to deal with our backcourt defensive issue.
Either Steph and Monta need to start denying the penetration better, or we need a giant beast of a defensive force in the paint. We go out and get Gasol, there goes our cap space, and we are working with a set roster at that point.
I would not be at all unhappy with either of these moves in general, just not sure what it would take to get Gasol, and equally unsure how much better the team would be
Gratitude is not only the greatest of virtues, but the parent of all others.
-Cicero
by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 30, 2010 9:21 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Good overview
This is why it can be so hard to know exactly what we need. Other than our expirings (which I like that we have), our contracts seem to be pretty good (a first in WarriorLand for as long as I can remember). Our team needs a lot of improvement, but not glaringly at any one place to the point that we need to overpay to upgrade anywhere.
It seems like we have flexibility to make moves (expirings, west player of the week, near rookie of the year, All Star PF, top 10 rebounding center), but it seems to be just a matter of finding the right trade that has the right mix of not hurting our contract situation and bringing us back an upgrade in talent/fit for winning.
by WestCoastWarrior on Dec 30, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
Either Steph and Monta need to start denying the penetration better, or we need a giant beast of a defensive force in the paint. We go out and get Gasol, there goes our cap space, and we are working with a set roster at that point.
We’d have to gauge the market for Biedrins. But generally a good young center should be able to net you these things, a defensive wing, a little more scoring punch off the bench.
houston won't give up scola
he was too big of a find for them. also, they be in rebuilding mode, but scola is where you start. not a centerpiece player, but a player that builds a contender. the rockets are more interested (much more) in dealing yao, martin, and brooks than deal scola.
gasol is a old news on gsom. He would be one hell of a splash if we could land him either by midseason or later in FA….
but jordan is a superfreak. expect good things out of that kid. he’s like the vernon davis of the nba. he’ll shape up and be freaky athletic and good one day.
to be honest i’d rather sign jordan and gasol and trade beans for sf or backup guard support
Steph + Monta for Prez
they *may* be in rebuilding mode
Steph + Monta for Prez
by j-spliff415 on Dec 30, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly, why in the world would Houston give up Scola?
And why would we go after him when we need center and point guard depth. I do love him tho.
by Only In Fairfax on Dec 30, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
And when need a young big defensive SG...draft?
by Only In Fairfax on Dec 30, 2010 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
i agree, 2nd rnd?
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
I don't understand why Memphis would give us Gasol.
I’d be in favor and I think he would add something, but it’s unlikely they’d take Biedrins or expirings for him. We have no other assets aside from Monta or Curry (who I wouldn’t trade for Marc Gasol).
I will say with ZBo and Rudy Gay in Memphis, they might benefit more from a player like Biedrins, and we’d benefit more from Gasol (as having a low post offensive presense would be an area we need). I still doubt they’d consider it unless we tacked on something like Udoh, which I wouldn’t do.
Trade Biedrins for an expirings and go for Gasol in summer? That’s an option, but it’d mean we’d overpay and while he is a very good player, giving him upward of 10 mil (a contract in realm of Horford/Noah) would probably not be worth it as he’s not a TRUE difference maker.
I guess we could try to use our capspace on Gasol in summer and if it pans out, then shop Andris? Probably safest/smartest route
For what it's worth....
from 82games.com
2010/11 Gasol v. Biedrins
Gasols simple rating +/- is second best on Memphis to Rudy Gay with +6.9
Biedrins is -3.9
Gasol a PER of 18.5 v. opponents who average 13.9
Biedrins PER is 14.4 v. opponents who average 21.5
Still doesn’t say much as Memphis are better defensive team overall (mostly on perimeter, certainly not ZBo)
they are actually pretty weak defensively (not as weak as us obviously)
especially on perimeter. Gasol is their “anchor”.
by HerFavColor on Dec 30, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Also..
Biedrins on the 2007/8 team (probably his best full season) and easily our best defensive team on the perimeter….
Biedrins was still allowing a PER of 20.9. Worst on team for starting players. Baron allowed 17.0, Monta 16.9, Jackson 15.9, Harrington 17.9
Biedrins was still allowing a PER of 20.9. Worst on team for starting players. Baron allowed 17.0, Monta 16.9, Jackson 15.9, Harrington 17.9
This would all be more meaningful if PER were a meaningful measure. It isn’t.
shocking reply ;)
I’m not a fan of PER in anyway, I’d love to see more specific game stats (opposing player points, fg%, ts%, rebound etc.) but I haven’t found them. Even then, it’s not exact because defense is more a team thing anyway.
But what the opposing PER does tell us is more or less if the player is scoring efficiently and in some volume.
Still doesn’t necessarily reflect it’s all on Biedrins for that but whatever. He’s not a great defender, I’d say average. But from my perspective, Gasol wouldn’t be a major upgrade either. you’re basically trading one players strengths (mobility, activity level but easily overpowered) for anothers (Strength, but slow).
If we had someone like Josh Smith or Lamar Odom at PF who are good defenders and weakside ones then it’d make more sense, but with David Lee and our perimeter defense, I doubt any center short of Dwight Howard would give us a meaningful upgrade defensively.
If I was to make some sort of Biedrins/Gasol swap, it’d be for offensive purposes.
But what the opposing PER does tell us is more or less if the player is scoring efficiently and in some volume.
It tells us if the opposing player is scoring, but it is far less sensitive to how efficiently he’s scoring.
PER goes up for players taking more shots so long as they hit at a ridiculously low rate, a rate so low that you’d be glad to let the other team take the shot all night long. High volume, low efficiency scorers are rewarded with PER, not as much as if they were high volume, high efficiency scorers, but it’s enough to make a head-to-head PER comparison fairly meaningless on a position by position breakdown. The only thing I know I know from the comparison is that opposing centers score more points. If they do this by being a larger portion of their team’s offense, but aren’t particularly efficient, the comparison doesn’t mean any as it relates to team success. And if the comparison is not related to team success, it’s not a meaningful way of comparing players.
this is more of an idea / devils advocate
but couldn’t you argue that since the opposing per is based on a season, and being in the same conference the two players face the same talent at very similar rates, that the higher per, if not accounting for efficiency, at least accounts for a more concerted effort to go after that player offensively by the other team. of course this doesn’t account for a million variables and the strengths of the rest of the team. I don’t think I’m articulating this very well but hopefully someone will get my line of thought and come to my aid.
I was specifically referencing the ‘head to head’ PER that 82games presents. That’s not based on season data, but the data for the time that Biedrins is on court and the performance of the other center (whoever he may be on a given night) while Biedrins is in the game. The higher PER still indicates more than anything else, that the opposing center tends to take more shots.
Granted, this season the opposing center has been making them at an above average efficiency (albeit not absurdly above average —indicative of a not good, but not abysmal individual defender, which is sort of what I think Biedrins is), but it’s indicative more of the usage than a valid comparison of who is influencing the outcome of games more.
Your assertion on Biedrins defense is basically what I was getting at
I don’t think he’s terrible. He does certain things well, he’s best on weakside, he is physically weak (comparatively) but the Warriors defensive issues are more teamwide than just a defensive anchor.
That said, Biedrins complete disappearance of any offensive game is what disappointments me most.
We all have our theories, but I believe it’s completely tied to his free throw shooting, and now he mentally blocked himself from ever going aggressive to basket. He’s averaging least FT attempts per minute of any center who plays significant minutes.
Jae, got any data on the likelihood of a player like Biedrins bouncing back. I’m pretty pessimistic on the whole idea
From what I’ve seen, when big men decline, it’s usually it. However, I don’t think the data apply that much to Biedrins because most of the decline seems to be because of injury. A big who seriously hurts his knees or back tends to have that problem recur. Biedrins’ injury last year wasn’t at all that sort of situation.
In terms of someone who seems to go into a psychological shell? Tough to say. I don’t have anything to quantify that. Biedrins still rebounds more or less like he always had. Actually his overall rebounding percentage is the second best it’s been in his career and the minor slip in per/36 is more a result of slower game pace than Nellie had them run at. And he’s bounced back from the slip in offensive rebounding that set him back last year. That seemed to be a result of being further from the basket, something that might have been shying away because of the fear about FT shooting.
But the ratio of FTA to FGA, and the overall drop in FGA is strange and seems like it has to be something psychological. This suggests that he’s unlikely to even try to shoot when someone is near him, resulting in a drop in FG% as well.
There’s a possibility that it’s something to do with Smart and the coaching. Lee’s FG% is way down too (though his ratio of FTA to FGA hasn’t really taken a hit), well below anything he’d ever done in the past. We might be looking at a small sample size still, but it also looks like we’re seeing an inability to get the ball to bigs in the position where they’re going to convert high percentage shots. With Biedrins, this would result in him just moving the ball along and not shooting. Lee doesn’t pass up shots in the same way. Lee takes the jumpers and he’s not making them because they aren’t as good a shot as he’s used to taking.
But this is an unsatisfying explanation as well. Lee’s percentage of jumpers taken isn’t really that different from what it was in NY. It’s just that he’s not hitting them like he did there. It’s possible that the jumpers aren’t coming in the same place and he doesn’t hit 18 footers like he’d hit 14 footers, but I haven’t done the breakdown on that, if the quality of the jumpers he’s taking has declined or if he’s just not making shots he used to. Knowing this might give me some insight into how much of his problem, and, by some degree of transitivity, Biedrins’ problems are a result of the offense being run.
I think you can flip a coin and have about the same predictive value on Biedrins bouncing back as any data can tell you right now. Sorry that it’s not terribly satisfying.
by jae on Jan 1, 2011 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
Lee’s FG% is way down too (though his ratio of FTA to FGA hasn’t really taken a hit),
I think we have to attribute a certain percentage of this to his elbow. It’s evident he was playing much more passive offensively because of his limitations.
And same with his jumper. Pain in your shooting elbow will usually hurt your shot.
He wasn’t hitting the shot before the elbow injury, else I’d make the same attribution. There’s something wrong. I’m not sure what it is, but there’s something wrong.
The simple solution for me is that it’s Smart, who seemed like a lousy coach a year ago when he made comments about liking Mikki Moore and re-affirmed this idiocy when he seemed to have a preference for Vlad (who I’ll admit, has been playing better of late, but still, for all intents and purposes, sucks). I don’t think he’s either a gifted motivator nor a particularly astute basketball mind.
At least that’s the story I’ll stick with for now until i see something resembling a reasonable rotation from him.
by jae on Jan 1, 2011 7:37 PM PST up reply actions
For all of Biedrins' offensive deficiencies
Per some HoopData.com sorting for per 40min, out of all centers in the league that play 25+mpg, Biedrins ranks 2nd behind Dwight Howard in Total Rebounding Rate. Third is Tim Duncan.
Despite Biedrins’ mental lapse of getting to the line and converting, his TS% is still better than Duncan, Jefferson, David Lee (he is part of this group in HoopData), Bogut, Hibbert, and Kaman. This is still for all centers that play over 25+mpg.
He’s 8th in WS, 5th in AR, etc. This for being last in USG among those centers that play 25+mpg.
Some negatives: he’s 2nd in TOR for being last in USG (12.01). I’m not sure what to make of that but I’m guessing part of that can be attributed to his teammates inability to be where they need to be for him or putting him in less than ideal situations. Lee is 4th in TOR but his USG is 20.71.
The point is, his “complete disappearance of any offensive game” may not be such a detriment as you think it is. He’s clearly doing better than a lot of the marquee centers in the league while the same stats show what we see, that he’s not a go-to guy.
He’s an elite rebounder who scores efficiently (we know he can score more efficiently than he is right now based on what he’s done in the past before his injuries).
by Doctor Kajita on Jan 1, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
But can you say for sure he'll bounce back?
Can’t say you can. I sure as hell can’t.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Even then, he’s producing quite well. Well enough for me to say he’s very valuable to this team and more valuable than a lot of centers in the league.
by Doctor Kajita on Jan 1, 2011 11:56 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
A little off topic, but what’s the scouting report on Derrick Favors’ offensive game? I’ve seen a couple of games earlier of the Nets and he has a nice little j, but anyone know if his post game has improved?
I'm not sure.
I’ll check Thorpe.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 30, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
Says he's good at what he's good at.
But hasn’t expanded his game much. Not bad because he’s good just not improved much.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 31, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
Marc Gasol? Yes please.
But……..
What is up with Beidrins? Have we given up on him?
We need Biedrins because for his rebounding. He’s way better than Amund/Gadz on the boards.
No relation to Matt Cain...
by Caine Black Knife on Jan 5, 2011 12:43 AM PST up reply actions
Well I kinda butchered that… the point I was trying to make is that we need Biedrins to be healthy. I think it will be hard to trade him for an upgrade.
No relation to Matt Cain...
by Caine Black Knife on Jan 5, 2011 12:46 AM PST up reply actions
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