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ESPN's Hollinger calls Ellis Overrated

Overrated: Monta Ellis

Ellis is almost the perfect prototype of an overrated player: He's a low-efficiency player who plays a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, so he ends up with gaudy per-game averages even though he's not advancing his team's cause much.

 

Clearly Hollinger and Kawakami are drinking the same efficiency cool-aid when it comes to Monta Ellis' preformance this season. Here's a link to Hollinger's full article (it's an ESPN insider piece). And he's Kawakami's post halfway through last night's game when he reference a Basketball Prospectus article from Kevin Pelton's Every Play Counts piece on Monta Ellis. Here is what Pelton had to say:

There are plenty of NBA players who have had better seasons than Monta Ellis. However, the Golden State Warriors' guard may be having as interesting a campaign as anyone in the league. Ellis started training camp by questioning his ability to play alongside rookie Stephen Curry, and was supposedly on the trading block. But when Golden State dealt Stephen Jackson and was hit with an unprecedented number of long-term injuries, Ellis suddenly become the NBA's marathon man. He is averaging 41.8 minutes per game, second in the league, and has played a full 48 minutes (53, in one case) a remarkable 10 times.

 

Read the rest of Pelton's piece at Basketball Prospectus

Poll
Is Monta Ellis overrated because of his stats?
Yes, he's playing crazy minute and putting inefficent numbers
158 votes
Hell no, Monta da Boss and should be an All-Star
289 votes
Um... this question is subjective and irrelevant
115 votes

562 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Comment 527 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Of course he's over-rated

He’s one of the only healthy players on the team, so he’s logging tons of minutes. Just like Jackson had career numbers when Ellis was out, Baron was gone, Harrington wanted out…

Kawakami pointed this out a few weeks back and people jumped all over him.

by Eggman on Feb 9, 2010 10:23 AM PST reply actions  

Problem is ...

He was putting up similar numbers when everyone was healthy.

This is a trend with Nellie, dating back a couple of seasons – the 48-win season with Baron.

He rides his lead horse too hard, even in situations when it shouldn’t matter, and then shrugs when the inevitable breakdown occurs.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Lebron was overrated his first few years in the league too

He was the only good player on his team and he got so many shots every game. He really isn’t even good.

by freerandolph on Feb 9, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow.

I’m not saying Ellis is not good, or that he can’t be really good. I’m just saying he looks a lot better when everyone else is out. His best role is probably as a 20 points, 4 boards, 4 assists. When asked to too much, he turns the ball over way too much.

by Eggman on Feb 9, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m just saying he looks a lot better when everyone else is out.

I’m really not sure you’re using the correct terminology here. He has not looked “better” by virtue of being the sole focus of attention of the defense because nobody else on his team can create anything. He is better suited to play with teammates who can handle some of the offensive load (scoring or playmaking), but right now we’ve got a rookie and that’s it. Statistically, on a PPG level, maybe he “looks better,” but people, especially around here, are not that dumb.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure exactly what you’re trying to say, but I’m just going to point out Lebron has been an above average efficiency scorer every year in the league except his rookie season…

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

WAIT

Did you say LeBRON isn’t even that good? are you serious?

by Morrow is wet!!! on Feb 9, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I did

"Hold it. The Schwarzenegger Library?" - John Spartan after hearing Arnold became President, from Demolition Man

by 61st Amendment on Feb 9, 2010 6:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Totally w/Kevin Pelton

His conclusion pretty much sums up my feeling on Monta:

…may be somewhat better suited for a secondary role in the offense than the go-to status he currently holds. Playing so many minutes seems to be responsible for his drop off in rebounding percentage as well as some of his half-hearted defense.

I don’t know how “over” or “under” rated plays into this, nor do I really care. Check that- I care if it’s the Warriors mgmt who are doing the rating. Seems to me the contract he’s currently playing under suits him fine, but I don’t know how many big contracts we should be handing out when there is absolutely no clear #1 we’re truly building around.

by GameSix on Feb 9, 2010 10:32 AM PST reply actions  

Does anyone notice Monta Ellis' body language when Curry doesn't pass to him?

I’ve noticed several times Monta looking pissed when Curry shoots and misses.

by GoldenSt8OfMind on Feb 9, 2010 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

yeah

definately looks to me like they are hiding something. just looks like they are not getting along. I mean their production is really really good but lots of times monta either misses a easy shot or turns it over when curry gives him a dime. Not saying he’s doing that on purpose.

by Morrow is wet!!! on Feb 9, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Hard to tell...

You see instances were Monta might not look Curry’s way when bringing the ball down or look upset when he is passed up by Curry for Curry’s own shot, but I’ve also seen instances were Monta gives him a pat on the back or thanks him for a pass.

by ajtrinc on Feb 10, 2010 12:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Lol at “hiding something” if hiding something is Monta just dropping the ball on the floor when Nellie wants Curry bring the ball up instead of handing it to him – then yeah.

Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info

by cybermaldonado on Feb 10, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions  

to me hollinger’s stat measures can only go so far. and as much as i like tk, the +/- stat is much more overrated than ellis ever could be. there are too many variables on a basketball court that make his +/- irrelevant. he is playing with a bunch of d-leaguers and poor defenders( himself included.) waht is clear is that even when monta plays his best games, we still lose a large majority of the time. that’s what seperates the good ones from franchise guys. i love monta’s game, but i think it becomes more and more apparent that he is not the answer as “the” guy, more like a second guy. and theres nothing wrong with that. hopefully we find “the” guy in my lifetime, but i have my doubts.

by davidwood'sliver on Feb 9, 2010 10:46 AM PST reply actions  

This is a bizarre season and we should appreciate that Monta is stepping up to the best of his "current" ability the best way he knows how at this time in his development..

He is still young and hopefully will improve his efficiency with a healthy team dynamic……the writers are reacting to the clamor for Monta to be considered an all star….perhaps he should just be considered for the “Yeoman effort” award instead. Sad that this seems like a putdown in response to his efforts. How many times does it seem like he has been the lone dog out with any scoring for us…..Maggette has stepped up as well but gets no love here it seems….at least last night others did join in.

Lets not forget that this young man could have followed in Jacksons footsteps but chose to go for it instead.

by Only In Fairfax on Feb 9, 2010 10:48 AM PST reply actions  

I don't believe that Monta is stepping up to the best of his current ability.

I think he’s simply trying to take over games at every opportunity. He has the talent to get away with that sometimes, but he would be a better player if he were smarter.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

You mean, he decided not to disobey the 6/$66M contract he signed be the face of the franchise — a franchise that stuck with him despite his effectively p*ssing the first of those six years out the window?

He’s a regular saint, I tells ya!

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 9, 2010 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

You're right,

Ellis used poor judgement Summer ‘08. And Monta is honoring his contractual commitment to the Warriors, as well he should. But after that whole Stephen Jackson thing played itself out the way it did, I became convinced they very same thing could’ve happened with Monta. Though it’s uncommon for a player with such a long term contract to whine their way to another team, I feel that when it actually happened with one unhappy player (in Jackson), that a new precedent had been set for greedy, me-first players unsatisfied with their team’s situations.

Also, I vividly recall constantly checking the internet for news of Monta’s status as a part of the team’s future when all this had just happened and Jax was (finally) traded because, in the aftermath of that whole Nelson/Ellis “fallout” after practice in New York, the Bay media had been making it out to seem like Ellis’ own future with the club was in doubt. When things got bad to the point that a rumor took legs (based on nothing at all) that Ellis’ agent was on the verge of meeting with the team’s management to discuss “Ellis future, or lack thereof” with the team, I became convinced (if just for a moment) that Ellis was next to go out the door because he didn’t fit with the team’s plans.

As an Ellis fan, this was the lowest moment for me because, feeling as I do that Ellis’ future as the cornerstone of the team is (very) bright with Jax finally out of the picture, I thought the worst thing that could’ve happened for Monta’s career (or the Warriors’ organization) was for Monta to split in a fashion similar to Jax’s departure… thankfully, my worst fears were quelled almost immediately after than when later that week I discovered an online article somewhere with excerpts from a recent Ellis’ interview in Boston (the Dubs were in town for their second game since the Jax trade) where Monta fervently dispelled those rumors of descension by passionately professing his love and loyalty to the Warriors’ organization for not only believing in and investing in his future potential, but for giving him such a chance to excel by declaring him the leader.

Anyway, ever since I read those excerpt from the interview (which included quotes where Ellis expressed his desire to “Retire a Warrior”), Monta’s “Warrior” efforts all through the season since have served to completely appease my love for him. He could’ve easily given Nelson and the organization the finger like Jackson did and said “Get me the hell out of here”, and instead he opted to become arguably the hardest-working player in an NBA uniform this year. And when you’re doing that for a Chris Cowan-run organization, and u consider all the “BS” (as Monta himself put it) that comes with that, I think that’s worth certain consideration.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

You adore him because he chose to not act like a total jackass? Three cheers for being easy to impress….

Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info

by cybermaldonado on Feb 10, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions  

We already knew he shouldn't be the go to guy

If all he did was catch and shoot and penetrate and dish he’d be way more efficient but instead he’s trying to be the man the FO wants him to be because we don’t have anyone else that has the type of scoring skills he has. Get a superstar and I bet he’d be one of the best shooting guards in the NBA, even though he really is right now.

by bojangles408 on Feb 9, 2010 10:51 AM PST reply actions  

i love how hollinger bashes his efficiency

YET won’t point out monta’s efficiency in the past, and perhaps draw the conclusion he’s ‘over worked’

the pace thing is BS IMO. It’s like he’s saying theres something special about being able to play at a slower pace where u SHOULD be more efficient

by tafkasam on Feb 9, 2010 11:00 AM PST reply actions  

I’m not following your problem with pace. The point of pace is to just adjust players stats to an equal baseline of possessions per game. If one team gets 100 possessions per game and the other 90 simply because the second team plays at a slower pace, all the guys on the second team are going to rack up 10% less stats per minute because there are 10% fewer possessions. The whole logic is if they were playing 100 possessions instead of 90, their stats would go up proportionally for those 10 extra possessions. So….what’s the problem with that? It makes a lot of sense to try to put everyone on an equal pace baseline.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions  

exactly!

and he wont mention kobes inefficiency as well who is shooting a lower percentage than ellis is and iverson who has never shot better that 43%!!

by leo2008 on Feb 9, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobes not inefficient, though. He’s not as efficient as he should be, and that’s why he’s overrated (on the basis that the popular thing to say these days seems to be “either Kobe or Lebron is the best player in the league”, Lebron is, Kobe isn’t even top 5), but he is still above average in scoring efficiency, which is significantly better than Ellis. FG% and 3pt% aren’t the right things to look at – because it matters what proportion you take those shots. That’s why we use TS% – it takes into account FG%, 3point%, FT%, AND what proportions you shoot them in. TS% = good stat.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 1:32 PM PST up reply actions  

I realize the dislike for kobe in general for this site but not to include him on the top five in the nba after all he’s accomplished does’nt make sense. Arguably he’s 1 or 2. He’s got the best jumpshot, turnaround, and fadeaways…almost unguardable.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

You’re arguing on inputs, I’m looking at the results and telling you he’s not a top 5 player in the NBA. What, exactly, is “all he’s accomplished”, by the way? He’s a very good player, and he’s been on very good teams, but he has yet to win a championship as the best player on his own team, his team wasn’t very good in the time between Shaq and Gasol (missed the playoffs once and lost in the first round twice)…..

He’s just not as good as guys like Wade, Lebron, Howard, and Paul.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Accomplishments: 4 championships, finals MVP, NBA mvp, 12 time all star, 11 time all nba, 9 time all defensive, nba all rookie selection, surpassed jerry west on most points scored as a laker to name a few…..
Basketball is a team game 1 player alone would not win a championship, even MJ had a great supporting cast.
Not as good as those players above – highly arguable becomes a matter of bias and preference.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Eh, things like all defensive team are extremely subjective and biased. Obviously Kobe is a good player, and always (so far) deserving of his all-star inclusions, but he’s just not nearly as good as people make him out to be. He’s not even close to Lebron’s class. His championships all featured him as the second best player, it would be like someone calling Pippen the best player in the NBA because of his 6 championships. Yeah, that conveniently ignores they all came with that MJ guy on the team (and Pippen was obviously a great player, we just wouldn’t mistake him for the best in the NBA), just like Kobe’s championships came with Shaq and Gasol. 1 player can’t win championships, but Kobe had guys like Butler and Odom and didn’t even make the second round of the playoffs for the 3 years he was the best player on his team (and as I pointed out, didn’t even make the playoffs at all one year). Pretty big difference between him and Lebron when Lebron carries a bunch of nobodies to the Finals and Kobe carries a weak (by Kobe standards) supporting cast to….an early vacation.

Not as good as those players above – highly arguable becomes a matter of bias and preference.

We can go through it in a very objective fashion, looking at scoring efficiency/volume, assists, turnovers, rebounding, and whatever else we can find to objective describe what Kobe does to win games, and that’s what I’m telling you, when you look at it that way, he just isn’t as good as those players….

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

If Pau Gasol or a complementary player for the lakers goes down, the lakers still have a chance at a championship, if Kobe goes down they will have lesser chance and most likely not win a championship.
During championship games intensity goes up and what sets players apart is being able to keep it together during momentum swings and crunchtime. I’ve seen Kobe do this also Wade. Howard kinda dissappeared during the finals seemed like Hedo and Lewis were more relevant.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

If Pau Gasol or a complementary player for the lakers goes down, the lakers still have a chance at a championship, if Kobe goes down they will have lesser chance and most likely not win a championship.

You may believe this, but it’s not true. The Lakers would just run the offense through the post more often and they’d probably be more efficient.

During championship games intensity goes up and what sets players apart is being able to keep it together during momentum swings and crunchtime. I’ve seen Kobe do this also Wade. Howard kinda dissappeared during the finals seemed like Hedo and Lewis were more relevant.

This doesn’t even make sense. Your second sentence is a non sequitur, and Howard is a big man. If he disappeared it’s because somebody down low (i.e. not Kobe) did a great job on him.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

What I meant by disappeared is that he(Howard) was’nt a major factor when the momentum was getting away from them.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

And what I meant was

“How on earth do you go about crediting Kobe for making Howard disappear?” If anything it’s evidence that Pau Gasol is a great basketball player (which is very, very true).

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I didnt credit kobe for the magical act I was highlighting the fact that Howard did’nt come through or have the killer instinct to take over when his team needed it (he disappeared), less relevant than Hedo or Rashard IMO.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 4:30 PM PST up reply actions  

OK...

Then you’re going on a complete tangent and talking about the Magic. Hey, did you know CP3 had surgery, guess the Hornets aren’t winning the championship this year.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Im talking about howard because missing barry is trying to say he is better than Kobe, I am trying to justify why Kobe is arguably 1 or 2 in the league, he is trying to say he is not even top five.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Howard scores extremely efficiently, is one of the best rebounders in the league, is arguably the best defensive player in the entire NBA, commands a double team and attention down low that opens things up for his teammates….that’s why he’s better than Kobe. Most of your arguments rely on subjective opinions without any evidence or hypothetical situations we’ll never be able to test. My arguments are all based on what the players actually accomplish in the context of how it helps their team win. What they contribute to their teams offensive/defensive efficiency, how they rebound, and turnovers they force/commit.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Lol, i was going to point out that if howard is being shut down, that is because of their frontcourt ( Odom, Gasol, Bynum) not Kobe. Howard and Kobe are completely different players. Howard does things that are most important to teams winning championships ( Defense, Rebounding, Efficient Scoring) while Kobe is an above average efficiency, extremely high volume shooter. He is very good at it, but not good enough to be a top 8 player in this league.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

What I meant by disappeared

  That’s one of the intangibles that some people can’t understand, All palates are not capable of tasting the same flavors. Some are happy with the statistical cheese-steak version of the dish.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah lots of posters keep flaunting the stats and efficiency and ts% and all that while very useful should not be the sole basis on arriving to a conclusion IMO there are many unquantified intangibles.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

“Intangibles” tend to show up in the stats, when they don’t, they generally have minimal to no impact on winning games. My real problem with intangibles is most of them are flat out made up opinions to support a point – things like Kobe’s “killer instinct” – we look for things like momentum, hot streaks, and generally find them to be a product of random variation. Unless you can show the intangible has a possible effect on the games outcome, might actually exist at all, and the player actually does what you claim they do, I don’t really see a point in giving an argument like that any merit. In this case, that means finding evidence Kobe really does have some sort of “killer instinct”, evidence that momentum might exist and have an effect on the games result, and show how Kobe might actually effect momentum. Otherwise it’s just an unsupported opinion.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

like what I said above IMO he "disappeared " in the finals.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 5:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobe has had PLENTY of bad postseason games.

So if poor postseason games = evidence of not being that great, sorry, that’s a pretty huge nail in Kobe’s coffin.

Unless, of course, you’re cherry picking the games you want to make your point. By making it about “final” games where Howard has a tiny sample size, for example, and by comping up with excuses as to why to discount Kobe’s MANY post-season chokes. (Games 1, 4, 5, & 6 of the 08 finals; games 1, 3, 4, 5 of the 04 finals). My point isn’t to say that Kobe is a choker, merely that if you’re holding a disappearing finals performance against Howard, there’s no way you can claim that Kobe somehow beats him in that department.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 6:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Didn’t Kobe go 5-25 in a game against Utah in the playoffs last year, and they only lost by two points???
Doesn’t this suggest Kobe’s teammates are amazing, and that even when he puts on an atrocious game, that his teammates can still lead the way.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Thats true that his teamates are amazing and can lead the way

BUT even when Kobe doesn’t shoot well, he makes his teamates better merely by the attention that the opposing team has to pay to Kobe. AND just because his teamates are really good, doesn’t mean that he is not. His teammates are really good, AND Kobe is better!

by freerandolph on Feb 9, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions  

But does he really make his teammates better?

That’s the question. It’s a hard one to answer, quite frankly, because we don’t really get enough solid evidence one way or the other most of the time.

I think it’s an assertion which requires some evidence, however …

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:18 PM PST up reply actions  

"Intangibles" tend to show up in the stats

They are likely to show up in the stats of his team mates and their intangibles will show up in his stats. They can be something as simple as the fact that he paused to tie his shoe cause he knew you were winded.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 6:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the reputation for MJ and Kobe’s killer instincts comes from their game winning shots. They make them not because of a killer instinct, but because they are the best wing players, and are able to create and make those difficult shots in general.

Also I don’t think it’s possible to categorize high-stress situations the same as all other situations. Some players, at least based on my perception, legitimately perform worse in those situations. However since high-stress situations are so rare, staticians would just shout ‘SSS!’, and assume that every shot is dependent on a true shooting level. Basketball relies so much on muscle memory. Muscle memory can be impacted by nerves and low confidence.

Watching all the non-Bibby Kings crumble against the Lakers that one rigged series is part of why I think this. That and because when I play I go through hot and cold streaks, dependent on confidence, getting warmed up, and how much leeway I’m given to shoot. I would imagine that NBA players minimize this to a great degree, but not enough that this factor disappears completely.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the reputation for MJ and Kobe’s killer instincts comes from their game winning shots.

Kobe doesn’t perform well in end of quarter/game situations, though. It’s a myth that’s come about because he always takes those shots, and of course he hits some, and when he does, it gets replayed ton of time and everyone remembers, but you don’t remember when he misses. The bottom line is he shoots a poor percentage in those situations because he waves off a screen, goes one on one, and settles for a long, contested jump shot (a long percentage shot), it’s like clockwork it’s so predictable.

That and because when I play I go through hot and cold streaks, dependent on confidence, getting warmed up, and how much leeway I’m given to shoot. I would imagine that NBA players minimize this to a great degree, but not enough that this factor disappears completely.

“Hot streaks” happen in so far as guys shoot better in some samples and worse in others. The question is whether it’s a product of random variation or something more. As of now, the people that have looked at it haven’t found it to be anything more than random variation. Unless there’s some evidence to the contrary, I don’t see any point in treating it as anything else. As for us….well, we’re just not as good as NBA players, I think we can both admit that. We probably do go through legitimate hot/cold streaks that are influenced by our mechanics and such, but again, we aren’t NBA players so it’s different….

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:34 AM PST up reply actions  

The question is whether it’s a product of random variation or something more. As of now, the people that have looked at it haven’t found it to be anything more than random variation.

I would normally believe this, but when it comes to shooting a basketball, I have plenty of personal experience and experience from watching NBA players suggesting that there is something to the idea that shooting can come hot or cold. Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe it’s a muscle memory thing. However you can’t point to the Stephen Jackson game against Dallas in the 07 playoffs and tell me he wasn’t “feeling it.” Every opportunity he got, he shot the 3, he made 75% I remember one break where he literally ran right at Matt Barnes 3-4 feet behind the arc to get the dump off for a 30 foot 3 pointer. He doesn’t do that unless he’s “hot” and he doesn’t make that shot unless he’s hot. Similarly in the last game in Dallas, Monta made a 22 footer and on the ensuing possession, deliberately went to the same spot on the floor and made an identical shot.

I understand that it’s not statistically quantifiable, but to deny the existence of “hot/cold shooting streaks” simply because you can’t statistically quantify it is silly. I don’t mean to suggest that you can leverage or predict when somebody is hot/cold, mere to point out that it exists, regardless of statistical proof.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 12:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand that it’s not statistically quantifiable, but to deny the existence of "hot/cold shooting streaks" simply because you can’t statistically quantify it is silly.

It’s more along the lines of guys get “hot and cold”, but, since we have yet to find any evidence it’s anything beyond the random variation we expect, you can’t make decisions based on it, and teams/players shouldn’t alter their strategy based on the “hot hand”, because all the evidence points to the next shot the “hot hand” taking, not being any more likely to go in then it normally would be. I’m not saying it flat out doesn’t exist, it may be certain individuals are different from the norm, or we just haven’t found it yet, but given the evidence out there right now, it seems foolish to change your behavior for something you think may exist in the face of the facts we do have (that we haven’t found it yet).

If you look hard enough, eventually, you should be able to quantify it in some way if it exists. That hasn’t happened yet.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

given the evidence out there right now

Statistical evidence? There is evidence, though it may not be statistically provable or competitively useful.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Objective evidence, which in general means statistical evidence….

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Basically, I don’t care much about peoples opinion/perceptions because they’re subject to some much bias they’re basically useless. If there’s no sort of systematic objectivity (like recording what happens, aka, statistics) to the evidence, it doesn’t strike me as useful or worthwhile.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

so much

I get it.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not saying it flat out doesn’t exist,

  Don’t you have days when you feel better than others? or can do things easier?? Hot and cold is just the same thing placed into the time frame and flow of a basketball game. As long as players don’t have exactly identical stats every game we have evidence of hot and cold. The shorter time frame we statistically chart the easier it would be to document the effect and place it with the longer time frame of average performance.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

As long as players don’t have exactly identical stats every game we have evidence of hot and cold.

Spoken like someone who failed basic statistics.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Spoken like someone who failed basic statistics.

So you’re sayin that players stats vary because they chose to play at different levels instead of at their best? A hot player is actually not hot , he’s choosing to play above his average skills ? Why would they choose to play below their skills then?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Statistics is largely the study of distributions.

As long as players don’t have exactly identical stats every game we have evidence of hot and cold.

Their stats varying from game to game is exactly what we expect from studying distributions.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

So you’re sayin that players stats vary because they chose to play at different levels instead of at their best?

Nope. That’s not even close to what I’m saying. I tire though of bothering to explain it to you. Evidence suggests you are either trolling — intentionally obtuse and doing this for kicks, or you really don’t have enough of a grasp of math and probability to get it. I’m not starting 5th grade math lessons here for your benefit.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I tire though of bothering to explain it to you.

Maybe you should just get out on the court and play till you can tell the difference between when you are hot and when you are cold?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

The interesting question ...

To me is whether or not that hot hand stuff is really just an after-the-fact rationalization for normal variation.

After all, yes, we all remember times when we were “Feeling it” and everything was going in. But those streaks end – and we were still feeling it when we tossed up that first miss. And sometimes we were still feeling it for another miss or two.

There are no easy answers here, just lots of questions.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

We probably do go through legitimate hot/cold streaks that are influenced by our mechanics and such, but again, we aren’t NBA players so it’s different….

Are you suggesting that Shaun Marion’s shooting mechanics are perfect? Everybody, including NBA players, is influenced by many things directly or indirectly related to shooting a basketball. To insinuate that NBA players are fundamentally different in this aspect is silly. They may practice their mechanics more, but the same things are bound to alter and mess up their shooting strokes as with you and I.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not that an NBA player's mechanics are perfect ...

It’s that, by virtue of lots and lots of repetition, they are far less variable.

An amateur’s shot varies widely from shot to shot. An NBA player’s varies much, much less.

And, having drilled it so much more, it will be much less dependent on every little thing being right than it is for us. The fundamentals of a player who’s practiced somethign for hundreds of more hours will be “locked in” than the fundamentals of a guy who hasn’t.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

unquantified intangibles.

“Intangibles” must be unquantified. If they could be quantified, they’d be tangible.

The problem with arguing for “intangibles” is that by their very nature, they have to remain subjective. By their very nature, it’s also possible that some or all are fiction or chance or something perceived that is not in fact intrinsic to the player credited with the “intangible”.

The tangible measures work as pretty good predictors. Allowed to take only tangible measures vs only allowed to try to construct a team with “intangibles”, the tangible measures are going to dominate. I suspect that people aren’t really willing to just go on “intangibles”, as that means abandoning things like knowing how many points a player scores.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:05 PM PST up reply actions  

true but they dont go by pure statistics either.

by dubtown on Feb 9, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the general public...

I think the Rockets are a team most would consider an “intangibles” team but in reality is that Darryl Morely has attempted to make the “intangibles” tangible through advanced statistical analysis.

I believe that the “intangibles” we speak highly of are there, we just don’t have the methods of making them tangible yet.

Check out Goallineblitz - Free Football MMORPG
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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 6:09 PM PST up reply actions  

And this is what “intangibles” generally represents to me. Things like getting teammates involved, keeping the offense flowing, being a high energy guy, leadership….ultimately, while I can’t point to the direct effect any of these things have, I know that the things about them I care about are the extra rebounds they lead to, the increase in efficiency they lead to, the steals, the defense….the things that we do measure, we just can’t necessarily break them out individually, but they ARE in the stats.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:18 PM PST up reply actions  

They might be in the stats somewhere, but not necessarily in the box score. I would love to know the stats the Houston FO keeps track of though.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh man, they have so many stats.

And when “stat guys” talk about stats, they usually go beyond the box score stats.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I would love to know the stats the Houston FO keeps track of though.

Me too. Well, my point is they’ll show up somewhere in our boxscore, if only on the “points scored” and “points allowed” level, though it doesn’t mean we can actually isolate them. Maybe having Houston’s information actually gives them a better pictures of what effect certain “intangibles” have?

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe having Houston’s information actually gives them a better pictures of what effect certain "intangibles" have?

I definitely think they have an advantage in terms of their ability to quantify effects other teams can’t. After reading that Michael Lewis article on Shane Battier, he’s been one of my favorite players. If anyone here hasn’t read it I highly recommend it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html

It goes into information that he has about player’s shooting percentages from spots on the floor, or shooting percentages while driving, going left/right, etc.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

To be fair, teams have been doing that kind of thing (scouting reports on what percentage guys shoot from various spots) for years, but yeah, I’m sure Houston does it in way more depth and with way better information than before. It would definitely be cool to see what they’re doing.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I think those intangibles exist, too ...

I mean, look at the change in defensive intensity you saw in the Boston Celtics when KG arrived. There’s no question that his defensive attitude infected the entire team, and contributed to them being so good for his first year there.

The problem is that people like to give good players credit for intangibles, simply because they’re good – and I’m not sure that’s the case. For example, freeRandolph, above, is giving Kobe credit for a lot of intangibles … but he certainly doesn’t do a lot to keep his teammates involved. He’s not a leader in the sense of motivating his teammates the way KG did in Boston his first season. In fact, it often looks like many of his teammates despise him.

In Monta’s case, I don’t see how he’s making his teammates better or generating positive intangibles as he’s playing this season.

As I’ve written before, teams do very little game planning against individuals in the regular season – so the notion that a player makes his teammates better just by being on the court is a little hard to justify.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:23 PM PST up reply actions  

And that’s along the lines of one of the points I make – if you’re going to credit a guy with intnagibles, you should have evidence the intangible can affect the game in a meaningful way, and that the player actually brings it to the table. With KG we all saw guys like Allen and Pierce, who had never been good defenders or put the effort in, completely change their games and play tough, intense, and sustained defense. I’m very comfortable crediting that to KG, I can see the effect defense has on the game, I can see a clear difference in these players since KG arrived…..so yeah.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:38 AM PST up reply actions  

If Pau Gasol or a complementary player for the lakers goes down, the lakers still have a chance at a championship, if Kobe goes down they will have lesser chance and most likely not win a championship.

Based on what? I already laid out what a Pau-less Lakers accomplished – it wasn’t much, and certainly not something that indicates they had a “chance at a championship”. I think you’re underestimating what Pau brings to the Lakers. He’s an excellent player – he scores more efficiently than Kobe, he makes everyone else better through his excellent passing and ability to draw a double team (3.5 assists/36 is very good for a big man), he’s a good rebounder, he’s a better defender than Kobe (maybe not if they’re both trying their hardest, but on a consistent basis, Pau > Kobe), he rarely turns the ball over….Pau brings more to the table when it comes to winning basketball than Kobe does. And it’s not that Kobe isn’t good – Pau is a very, very good player, and Kobe is very good, too, but he’s not the best player in the NBA, and not particularly close.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with a lot of what you say. However, I don’t think Pau is better than Kobe.

In a vacuum, yes Pau does put up a better TS% (about 580), and higher efficiency stats.

But efficiency has to be sacrificed for volume. Pau only puts up about 13 shots per game while Kobe puts up more than 20. If Pau was capable of shooting it 20 times per game at a much higher percentage, they would go to him more.

With Kobe’s workload his TS% is still high (about 560). And this is coming from a SG. I don’t have the stats to prove this, but I highly believe that his efficiency is higher than that of the average SG by quite a bit. More so than Pau’s advantage over the average PF.

I would really like to see whether there is a stat that takes into account volume and efficiency, total impact on the game. Maybe TS% x FGA attempts is a decent approximation.

For the record, I think that if Pau went out, the Lakers could still do a lot of damage. Bynum turned into a beast right before they acquired Pau. Not to mention the addition of Ron Ron this season. So I don’t think past seasons are a good indicator of how the Lakers would do now without him.

If Kobe went down, it would be really interesting to see how they’d get it into their bigs. I’m not a big fan of the concept of ‘clutchness’ either but I wouldn’t trust anyone else on that team to create their own game-winning shots.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 9:52 PM PST up reply actions  

No Gasol, they get bounced in second round. With Gasol, probably in finals, with good shot at winning it.
No Kobe, they make it to conference finals at least…..
Kobe takes way too many inefficient shots. That long mid-range jumper fadeaway is the worst shot in basketball. Even if you make it, theres almost no point in shooting it.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

No Gasol, they get bounced in second round. With Gasol, probably in finals, with good shot at winning it.
No Kobe, they make it to conference finals at least…..
Kobe takes way too many inefficient shots. That long mid-range jumper fadeaway is the worst shot in basketball. Even if you make it, theres almost no point in shooting it.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

TS% takes into consideration volume, but if the majority of your shots are inefficient, it will go down. Gasol has a higher efficiency because he takes smarter shots, and he makes a ton of them. Also, Gasol doesn’t shoot the 3, and if he did, his TS% would be even higher. It’s not like these are inside shots only. Gasol has a variety of post moves, and a very nice mid range jumper.
Gasol also is a much better rebounder than Kobe, and his defense is consistently better. Then you consider how great of a passer Gasol is.
So let me get this straight….
Gasol vs Kobe
Gasol:
More efficient scorer
much better rebounder
better defender
better passer
Kobe:
Higher volume shooter

So….. it comes down to what you want to accept…. that Gasol probably is better than Kobe.
Lets not forget Gasol lead the Grizzlies to the playoffs 3 times in a row as the 4th seed with much less talent than Kobe, who got his team no better than a 7 seed in the same time period.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Then you consider Gasol’s WinShares are only .9 behind Kobe despite playing 15 fewer games.
Kobe averages .143 WinShares per game.
Gasol averages .182 WinShares per game.
Pretty large difference.
If Gasol had played the same amount of games as Bryant, he would have 9.3 WinShares, a 2 game differential between Bryant. 2 games is alot. Thats more than the difference between Artest and Kobe.
Hope this opens some of your eyes ;)

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:38 PM PST up reply actions  

TS% takes into consideration volume

I think you misunderstand what he’s looking for – TS% tells us how efficient a player is, but it doesn’t consider how many shots they’re taking total. If one guy is 2% above average efficiency and taking 30 shots, and another guy is 10% above average efficiency and taking 2 shots, the first guy is probably helping his team more, and he’s looking for something that takes both their efficiency and total number of shots into account to compare total offensive production…

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

I would really like to see whether there is a stat that takes into account volume and efficiency, total impact on the game. Maybe TS% x FGA attempts is a decent approximation.

Agreed, I’ve said this before, too.

But efficiency has to be sacrificed for volume

I’m not sure how true this is, though. While Kobe no doubt should be credited for his higher volume than Gasol (as long as you’re above average, as they both are, more volume = better), I’m not sure Gasol’s efficiency would go down if he was used more often. At some point I’m sure more volume would lead to worse efficiency, as the extra shots are the difficult ones you previously passed up, but in Gasol’s case, I think they could simply run the offense through him more often and his volume would go up a decent amount without a loss in efficiency. Basically, having the other options they do (most importantly, Kobe) means the offense runs through others instead of Gasol sometimes, and if they just ran it through Gasol, they would become more efficient and Gasol would score more often, though Bryant’s volume would suffer as a result.

but I highly believe that his efficiency is higher than that of the average SG by quite a bit. More so than Pau’s advantage over the average PF.

I’m not sure, I don’t think the gap between the average SG and PF is that big – PF’s are more efficient, but I don’t think the difference is more than 2% (something like 53% to 55% TS%), and Gasol has a 3.5% advantage on Kobe in TS%. I’m not positive though, you could be right…

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:46 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure, I don’t think the gap between the average SG and PF is that big – PF’s are more efficient, but I don’t think the difference is more than 2% (something like 53% to 55% TS%), and Gasol has a 3.5% advantage on Kobe in TS%. I’m not positive though, you could be right…

Over the last few years there’s been a bit of variation from year to year. Bigs have slightly higher TS% than guards, but the difference is rather minimal, just as you noted. It’s all close enough to 54% that adjusting for position isn’t really that important. It’s close to the level of statistical noise for any single player.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe TS% x FGA attempts is a decent approximation.

Looking at TS%‘s formula, it seems to me TS% * (FGA + .44*FTA) would be a good way to do it? Can’t forget FT’s!

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 7:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Hm, since FTA is alreading included in TS%, aren’t you then disproportionately rewarding the ability to get the stripe?

I’d like to see a kind of TS+ metric, with zero defined as the average TS% among NBA players, anything worse than average being negative, and anything better than average being positive. You could then arrive at the metric you seem to be talking about (True Shooting Value, or something) by multiplying that number by FGA. The beauty of it would be that people that shoot inefficiently but shoot a lot would be penalized more than people that shoot equally inefficiently but not as much (and the converse for people who shoot efficiently…)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 7:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, the FGA + .44*FTA part of the equation is meant as a measure of possessions, so you have TS% (the efficiency you score at), and you multiply it by the number of possessions you shoot, and so that’s what I was going for. Your stat would make a lot of sense, too, though I will say, I do think a guy who scores at average efficiency is helping his team (not a ton, but it’s still helpful, those shots have to come from somewhere), so representing that as a 0 seems to imply that it’s not…

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 7:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Hey MB, OT: are you getting blasted there in Philly like we are here in NYC? We’ve already got 6-8 inches of snow and today’s “second wave” is supposed to be worse. Wind is blowing the flakes horizontally, gusting so hard I can barely see out my office window…

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 8:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Ha, I can’t tell how bad it’s been because there’s still so much snow from the weekend. It’s definitely coming down right now, and has been snowing since last night off and on….but yeah, weather report yesterday estimated about 16-17 inches by the time this storm passes. Which is awesome, because not only did my work shut down (for all non-essential employees) so I get to work from home, but my jury duty responsibility for today was canceled but I still get credit for fulfilling it.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

(Wind isn’t bad right now and hasn’t been bad yet, though)

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Looking at TS%‘s formula, it seems to me TS% * (FGA + .44*FTA) would be a good way to do it? Can’t forget FT’s!

That appears to get you back to the points scored, something we already know. The key in figuring out efficiency and usage is to look at the player’s efficiency in terms of his team’s possessions. A high efficiency scorer who uses more of his team’s possessions is highly valuable. A low efficiency scorer who doesn’t take up many possessions isn’t a positive, but he’s less of a negative than a low efficiency – high volume guy who is taking what could well be more productive opportunities from teammates.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Hoopdata has a pretty good metric for this on their boxscores:
http://www.hoopdata.com/boxscore.aspx?id=300208009
Towards the bottom, they have something called PC/PU which factors in Assists, TO’s and Assisted field goals. It’s a pretty good barometer for how efficient a player is. I wish the would actually have in on their cumulative season stats.

by philthiest on Feb 10, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions  

oooooooh. I like this, thanks.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

to look at the player’s efficiency in terms of his team’s possessions

Well that’s what I’m getting at, too. My view is it seems to me that FGA + .44*FTA is a measure of “number of possessions”, and TS% a measure of “efficiency per possession”, so that’s why it seems logical to me to multiply them out, though I guess in the end that just leaves you with PTS / 2. Maybe it should be something more along the lines of [ TS% – (baseline average TS%) ] * possessions – giving you something along the lines of points above/below average, which I guess is a lot like the TS+ Sleepy described….maybe make the baseline average more of a “replacement level” average than league average….just coming up with thoughts right now, not really thinking it out much. The point is I want something that takes both efficiency and volume into account.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 10:29 AM PST up reply actions  

The problem with mutiplying ...

is that it assumes that a low TS% guy can some how make up for that by shooting a lot of shots.

Remember, a low TS% guy hurts you evert time he shoots the ball – but you could get a high TS*Pos by having low TS and very high Pos, very high TS and very low Pos, of moderately high both.

But the stat rewards players you don’t want to reward – guys like Monta who shoot a lot despite low TS. Those guys don’t help their teams by shooting more.

Whether or not high volume is good depends on TS, so you’d need not to multiply then, but rather to have some sort of nonlinear relationship.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, if you’re using a baseline like I threw out there in the comment you responded to, at some point the number you’re multiplying with becomes negative, which does take care of that problem…

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the formula, though I agree with Sleepy in that usage % might be a better indicator than # of possessions. It likely adjusts for pace better?

And your observation that a slightly below average volume shooter > efficient role-player, also important.

The formula you gave may still be biased too heavily towards guys like Biedrins, who shoot a high TS% but can’t put up more than a few shots.

[ TS% – (baseline replacement TS%) ] * [usage % – (baseline replacement usage %) ]

I think this metric would have to be position adjusted, since SGs have a higher usage % than centers.

Also, now that I think about it, a replacement usage % would likely be very low across all positions and like the original equation before your adjustment, boost low-efficiency, hi-volume shooters too much.

There has to be some way of adequately weighing both.
 
Also I I don’t have baseline numbers at hand so I can’t test whether Sleepys, MBs, or this is a decent indicator or not. Any input?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Here's the problem:

Compare two players.

One player (player A) with a slightly above replacement efficiency, but slightly below replacement usage.

The other (player B) with a below replacement replacement efficiency, but slightly above average usage.

I would aruge that you can build a winner out of a team of player A’s, but NOT out of player B’s. And if you do manage to get that ellusive superstar player, then you want to surround him with players of type A, NOT of players of type B.

And yet, this new stat would consider the two players to be about equal.

High efficiency, low-usage guys – like, say, Shane Battier – can have a lot of value. Almost every championship team has guys like that on it.

Low efficiency, high-usage guys, on the other hand, tend to dwell mostly on losing teams.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 6:32 PM PST up reply actions  

You’re right, I just don’t know how to set that up.

I also wouldn’t want it to encourage a team comprised entirely of guys that have had high efficiency in the past. Houston has that, and Ariza’s efficiency has taken a huge hit because they are lacking a legit #1 scorer.

Maybe MB’s equation works but applied to an entire team, and given a usage constraint. The highest in that metric could be summed. I don’t know, I’m just throwing out ideas.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Here's how to look at it:

Derek Fisher
Trevor Ariza
LeBron James
Lamar Odom
Pau Gasol

Key bench players: Andrew Bynum, Luke Walton

65-75 wins.

Mo Williams
Delonte West
Kobe Bryant
Andy Varajao
Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Key bench players: Ben Wallace, Daniel Gibson

45-55 wins (and that’s being generous).

Purely subjective, I know. But you give LBJ a capable journeyman PG who’ll get out of the way, 3 top tier front court players, and some good role players, and you’ve got yourself an even money favorite for the championship from opening night. Give Kobe a half decent second banana, 3 second tier big men, and… some other guys, and you’ve got a middle of the road playoff team. That’s the difference between Kobe & LeBron.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not even sure that second team makes the playoffs. Well, in the East they would, but they’d be battling for one of those last spots….

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

If they kept that in tact for 7 years

They would win 6+ championships.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 6:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Why did you use last years playoff version lakers instead of the current lakers? I think this years Lakers, with Lebron instead of Kobe, makes 75 wins less laughable and more terrifyingly possible.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Last years Lakers were better.

Ariza fits better with LeBron than AhhhTest! Derek Fisher could still play, sorta. They were still getting some contributions from their bench players.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2010 10:33 PM PST up reply actions  

were they?

My first guess was that Bynum was more beastly this year but looking at the stats, they’re very comparable. This year he has produced 1 more win share in about the same minutes. He was also weak in last years playoffs, statistically and observationally.

Does Ariza fit better with LeBron? Why is that? I like Ron.

You’re right about their bench.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, Ariza is a lot more of a two than Ah!Test

at least that’s the impression I get. You don’t really need Ah!Test’s strength when you have Bron, which is where Ariza’s quickness, length and athleticism would help out a lot.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

What suggests that?
They’re pretty similar.
Ariza is terribly inefficient though.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

What's to suggest that

Ariza is quicker, longer, and more athletic? I dunno, the fact that he’s quicker, longer and more athletic.
He wouldn’t be a primary offensive option, so he’d be reduced to a spot up shooter on offense, like AhTest is.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

But Artest with Plantar Fasciatis is better at spot up shooting, defending, creating for others, and just better than a healthy Ariza in his prime….

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I think he is a good defender, but he’s gotten that reputation more from steals he made in the Western Conference Finals, more than actual man to man defense…. Didn’t Hedo go off on him in the Finals?

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I hate to admit it

but that was about the time I lost interest in the playoffs last year.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions  

For the previous 3 years Ariza has been a lot more efficient than Artest. This year he’s had to play a lead role, and has lost much efficiency as a result (just like Monta).

Ariza is faster, more athletic and a more typical 2. But his 3s are really bad. 30%, less than Odom. I remember in the playoffs, yelling “leave him open he aint got poop”. Only to have him light it up at 48% on the playoffs.

With Ariza, thats too few good 3 point shooters on that team. Seeing as to how Artest is capable at 3s (40%), and that I don’t think he’d get beaten on D by most 2s, I’d like Artest more.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Because the Lakers won a championship last year

And dubtown was suggesting that Kobe’s 4 championships mean he’s arguably as good as LeBron James. Which he isn’t… at all.

And the past is concrete, where as using the present might lead to “Yeah, but Mo Williams is injured, etc.”

And because the whole Shaq/Kobe thing might screw people into thinking “wait, of course the Kobe/Shaq tandem would be better! We saw it before!”

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

ok. Lebron with prime Shaq. Also a terrifying thought.

Somewhat related, is this Lakers team as good as the Kobe/Shaq era Lakers? Close? Not close?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I would say do to the addition of players like Odom, Artest, and Bynum to a duo of Kobe/Gasol, that they are about equal. They don’t have the best player in the league like they did in Shaq but they have two top ten players with a bunch of top 40 players.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Would you take Dirk or Kobe?
According to Win Shares, on average Dirk gets more wins shares per season in their careers. I find that ridiculous considering Kobe has been to 6 NBA Finals, and Dirk has been to one…. ridiculous that Kobe couldn’t get more… Kobe isn’t better than Dirk is the point i’m trying to make, so don’t start saying he is the best player in the league, unless you think Dirk is better than Lebron, Wade, Paul, Howard, Bosh, etc.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 7:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I like win shares A LOT. But other evaluation criteria are needed as well.

For one I think it values role-players playing along stars too highly.
Anderson Varejao at 8 wins last season was roughly equal to Deron Williams?

Also, and this point is partly just a reiteration of my first point, I think it undervalues star players.
If LBJ is a 20 win player, that means that if his minutes were replaced by someone who provided 0 win shares, they would be a 46 win team?

I could come up with many examples of where its wrong. Was Ray Allen better than Dirk, Yao and Duncan last year?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I think it penalizes good players, or at least volume shooters, on bad teams.
By win shares, CJ Watson is having a better year than Monta Ellis. It would be… misguided to give CJ more minutes and shots on this logic.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I think it penalizes good players, or at least volume shooters, on bad teams.

“Penalizes” makes it sound as if they somehow deserve better. High volume shooters who are not also high efficiency shooters on bad teams tend to be part of the reason why the team is bad. That’s not a penalty. That’s just stating reality.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:15 AM PST up reply actions  

You have a point for players like Baron, when there are other players who can pick up his load at a higher efficiency.

But for crappy teams, the best player on the team is typically inefficient. Replacing that best player’s minutes with the other players would likely lower the efficiency of those other players.

In the Heat’s 15 win season, Wade had 3.3 win shares, shooting a 550 TS%
In that same year Leon Powe had 3.9 win shares in fewer than half of Wade’s minutes. Powes TS% was over 600, likely because of his cast. Would trading Wade for Powe have made the Heat a better team? I doubt it.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

But for crappy teams, the best player on the team is typically inefficient.

Cart/Horse. If your best player is typically inefficient, chances are you will be a crappy team.

Replacing that best player’s minutes with the other players would likely lower the efficiency of those other players.

You speculate about this, but it’s not the sort of thing we need to speculate about. There’s data. Data seems to indicate that more often than not, getting rid of the high vol. low percentage shooter doesn’t hurt teams much if at all and in fact, sometimes the team becomes more efficient. This notion that the low efficiency shooter has to take all the shots because no one else would make them assumes that the team found some optimal return based on their personnel such that if anyone else took those shots, they’d do even worse. Actual data do not support this. Actual data suggest that the high vol. low efficiency shooters are doing so at a detriment. This isn’t to say that the team could get good if these guys would just shoot less, but they don’t get worse and at times get better.

In the Heat’s 15 win season, Wade had 3.3 win shares

Win shares are a dubious metric. I cannot vouch for them meaning anything.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 5:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m on the fence about this, I’d like to see this data, if you can help I’d appreciate it.

Baron and Harrington was an inefficient high-volume shooter, we replaced them with Crawful+Maggs, and SJax’s role stepped up, the change in TS I’m guessing is a wash, but I can’t find that by team over a season.

Of course this ignores the effect of good ball movement. I don’t know what metric captures that other than assists. PC/PU? I can’t find that over a full season. Do we have to point to the loss of assists that made us worse?

The only other individual references I can think of at the moment are Ariza+Monta going from efficient low-volume to inefficient high-volume scorers. In these cases I pin most of the blame on the loss of key players.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Baron and Harrington was an inefficient high-volume shooter

But they shot a lot of 3’s….
And Baron was a very good passer.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

those 3s go into TS%
Baron and Al
just about 520 and 550 respectively when they were here

Maggs and Crawful
540 and 580

Jax yr 1, Jax yr 2
535, 530

Granted Monta wasnt around last year
So obviously TS does not paint the entire picture for our decline from 49 wins to 30something. We lost effective ball movement. I want to know the metric that helps explain it.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Maggs and Crawful
540 and 580

I think you have them mixed up. Maggette was .580, and Crawford was .540
My point about the 3’s is that if you aren’t going to shoot a high percentage inside the 3 point line, at least Baron started taking the most efficient shot he could take most of the time.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

exactly! and he wont mention kobes inefficiency as well who is shooting a lower percentage than ellis is and iverson who has never shot better that 43%!!

Not exactly. Kobe isn’t inefficient. He’s having an off year, but he’s still better than average in scoring efficiency.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

He started the year amazing, shooting at like 48%, 2 steals a game. The finger injuries and regression towards mean brought his season back down to his usual production though.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:47 PM PST up reply actions  

His TS% is below his career norms. It is below his usual production, though still good enough to keep him as a very, very good player.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions  

You’re right, I hadn’t noticed that. Do you know a site that shows splits of TS%? I wonder if he still started hot in that regard or if his early reluctance to shoot 3s lowered his TS.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I was using that, but I don’t know if it can show the advanced stats per month, week, at home, that sort of thing. It only gives me traditional stats when I look for splits.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh oh...

You can calculate TS% using these other stats.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

not worth it haha

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you could calculate it easily using Excel

or make a program for your graphing calculator…
Huh, I might do that actually.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 10:54 PM PST up reply actions  

What do all these people want Monta to do differently?

They are just looking at stats, not watching the games. No one is perfect, but what would they have Monta do differently? Not score so we could see other people take more difficult shots? Refuse to play so many minutes and cause problems within the team? Make a greater effort to rebound so that he is out of position for defensive rotation?
The turn-overs are avalid problem, but that is part of being who he is. He is not a point guard. We aer going to have to live with that until we get better pieces.
I hate articles like that. They serve no purpose.

by warriorsvictim on Feb 9, 2010 11:07 AM PST reply actions  

"Not score so we could see other people take more difficult shots"

You miss the point.

Monta is taking – and missing – the most difficult shots. And that is exactly the problem. If he were to NOT take those shots, somebody else would be taking them, and hitting them at a higher clip.

We want Monta to play within himself more. To not try to score the spectacular basket so often.

There’s a problem with the mantra “just watch the games” – which is, simply, that we tend to notice and remember some things better than others. For example, we remember the beautiful acrobatic made shot far more than we remember the missed shot forced up through traffic. So when you focus on your subjective experience watching the game, you do not, actually, see the game very clearly.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

you totally miss the point

no one else has a better chance of scoring. Nellie would change Monta’s offensive assignment if what you state as fact were true.

by warriorsvictim on Feb 9, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

no one else has a better chance of scoring.

This is not supported by evidence.

Nellie would change Monta’s offensive assignment if what you state as fact were true.

This assumes a) that Nellie could communicate it AND Monta would listen [either makes it fail] AND Monta has the ability to make good on a change in game plan or b) that Nellie cares at this point and isn’t just throwing in the towel and waiting to get back to Maui. I haven’t seen a whole lot to suggest that Nellie’s doing much this season other than rolling the ball out there.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Can I see the evidence to support that someone else has a better chance of scoring?

Also I think Nellie would play Monta less than 42 minutes if he thought one of his D-league crushes could replace Monta’s production. It would make him look like a genius! :)

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:55 PM PST up reply actions  

And that isn’t to say that I fully support Monta putting up a billion shots per game. But outside of Curry, and the ‘original ball hog’ Maggette, both of whom are scoring at fairly high volumes, there aren’t any other players capable of scoring.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 10:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Biedrins and Morrow are good options. Now, neither can create shots for themselves, but there are definitely times when Monta should be looking to create for them rather than himself.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:50 AM PST up reply actions  

there aren’t any other players capable of scoring.

There may not be other guys who are able to hoist 15 shots a game without sucking, but again, it seems like people are comparing Monta shooting 20 shots a game to someone else doing this. Maybe Morrow or Watson couldn’t add another 5 shots a game to their averages without some of them being bad looks, but they likely could take one or two more shots on average.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

You’re both right. I was influenced by Biedrins’ injuries and lack of playing time, Morrow’s injury, and the assumption that CJ sucks ass (he doesn’t really though, on offense)

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions  

and the assumption that CJ sucks ass (he doesn’t really though, on offense)

Just letting you know, that even if that isn’t too bad to most people, especially from mccoven, that stuff can get you banned if you say it alot…. just helping out.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

k thx 4 the heads up

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

also, I’m really encouraged by Morrow’s big return. I hope Monta puts some more confidence in him.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 5:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Can I see the evidence to support that someone else has a better chance of scoring?

The indirect evidence:
1) Other players on the team have better scoring efficiency.
2) Yes, in a limited sample size, but still there, the Warriors have a better team plus/minus with Monta on the bench, suggesting that without him, the team has found a way to be more competitive. I suspect it’s a sample size in that it’s not really as extreme as the numbers suggest, but nothing in it suggests that without Monta hogging the ball, they’d fall apart entirely like his apologists suggest.
3) Other cases where high volume/low efficiency scorers have left teams have rarely resulted in a decline in the team’s offensive efficiency and sometimes results in an increase, suggesting that the high vol. shooter was taking away shots that other players could make as efficiently if not moreso. This may not be true of the Warriors, but it’s common enough to suggest that it can’t be ignored.

And of course, there’s the “common sense” explanation: if Monta is being doubled or tripled when he heads into traffic, someone else is not being guarded. That guy has a better look.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Or you could do marginal analysis.

Accepting the presumptions that with each additional shot Morrow takes, his TS% will go down, but with each assition shot Monta passes up, his TS% will go up.

If you accept that proposition, then Monta should STILL pass more, until his TS% has gone up, and Morrow’s TS% has gone up, to the point of them being equal.

The only way this doesn’t make sense is that if you think that Monta passing up one more shot a game would result in Morrow’s TS% dropping below Montas, which is, well … a rather huge assumption.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:54 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

The only way this doesn’t make sense is that if you think that Monta passing up one more shot a game would result in Morrow’s TS% dropping below Montas, which is, well … a rather huge assumption.

Well, if you think of every shot that Monta/Morrow might take at the margin, the question is, who shoots that next shot at the higher percentage? Whoever does should shoot it, and you keep going through that process until their marginal shot % is equal, at which point you’re at the team equilibrium….

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Statistically it sounds awesome. In reality I doubt that any coaches are skilled enough to maximize their teams and get them to that equilibrium. Not to mention how passive/disgruntled I’d be as an NBA player to think of some average shots/game I shouldn’t exceed.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:06 PM PST up reply actions  

To rephrase that, every player should know their role on their team. And the stats are just a more complex way of telling the players ‘shoot when you’re open’. I wonder if the Spurs get close to equilibrium.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I wouldn’t expect anyone to get to the equilibrium, that would be basically impossible, but I do think some coaches and players at least do a better job of going in that direction.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ve been skeptical of the +/- arguments used to say stars on bad teams are bad. Specifically those that said 2 years Durant was the worst on the team, that they did much better with him on the bench. This debate reminds me a lot of that one actually. I usually figured that Durant’s time on the bench was during scrub time, in which their team was not nearly as overmatched.

But it makes sense that some other players could add 1 shot/game, and the team would be more efficient.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

what is nellie supposed to adjust?

I have had the same thought, but at this point in the season he has all these pieces who have played very few games together.

How much can he change without confusing everyone and causing major turnovers and positional breakdowns? With the exception of Monta, Maggs, and Curry no one knows where anyone else will be on the floor at any given time.

by warriorsvictim on Feb 10, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions  

I was responding specifically to the charge ...

That Nellie NOT changing the lineup means that Monta is the best player to take those shots. That’s only meaningful if Nellie has the ability to make adjustments.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

They are just looking at stats, not watching the games.

This is your assertion.

I look at stats and watch games. Watching games, Monta looks like a very exciting player who is trying to do everything. He is not succeeding at that. Watching games allows us to be fooled. Compare a guy who goes 10-20 from the floor and and a guy who goes 8-20 from the floor. “Watching” my guess is that most people won’t notice the difference, but those 2 blown possessions on the extra misses by the less efficient shooter do impact games.

No one is perfect, but what would they have Monta do differently? Not score so we could see other people take more difficult shots?

Ah the ever-present “it’s not Monta’s fault since no one else could do it” line. What would I have Monta do differently? Shoot less. Not to never shoot, but when all he has is a difficult shot, yes, I’d like to see him pass. The issue isn’t to let others take difficult shots, but when he has a difficult shot (say there’s a double team on him) someone else is very likely to have a less difficult shot. I want him to not try score when all he has is the difficult shot. In those cases (and there’s 4 or 5 of them a game) I want him to pass the ball to someone else. The guy whose man came to double Monta would be a good target.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Watching games allows us to be fooled. Compare a guy who goes 10-20 from the floor and and a guy who goes 8-20 from the floor. "Watching" my guess is that most people won’t notice the difference, but those 2 blown possessions on the extra misses by the less efficient shooter do impact games.
Ah the ever-present "it’s not Monta’s fault since no one else could do it" line. What would I have Monta do differently? Shoot less.

this argument doesn’t hold all that much water, as Monta shoots at a higher fg% and 3fg% than Kobe Bryant, despite having his next best options be Steph Curry and Anthony Morrow, as opposed to Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and Pau Gasol.

So I agree – when in doubt, more efficient is better. but….

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Huh?

How does that mean that he shouldn’t take his most difficult shots, that he shouldn’t pass when double-teamed?

If anything, it says how good he COULD be.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

arguably yes.

but it certainly refutes the claim that if you shoot as inefficiently as Monta, you can’t be great, since he’s a more efficient scorer than arguably the best player in the game.

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

i’m not wholly justifying Monta’s shot selection. I’m merely saying he’s not as horribly inefficient as people may claim – or at least, it’s not necessarily as detrimental as people claim.

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

When jae and company talk about shooting efficiency

they aren’t really looking at FG% and 3P%. They’re looking at TS%, which includes the ability to get to and convert from the line. It’s a big reason why Corey Maggette is the most efficient non-PF/C scorer in the NBA.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

this argument doesn’t hold all that much water, as Monta shoots at a higher fg% and 3fg% than Kobe Bryant,

You should try to understand what efficiency is and isn’t before making statements like you have.

Bryant is significantly more efficient than Monta both from the floor and overall. While Monta’s FG% and 3pt % are higher, his effective percentage is lower because his shot distribution is different. Monta shoots fewer 3s, so his insignificantly higher 3pt % doesn’t give him any boost. And his overall efficiency (points per possession utilized) is lower because he doesn’t get to the FT line as often.

Really, you should understand what efficiency measures actually matter before stating rather erroneously that an argument (that you do not appear to understand) holds no water.

…despite having his next best options be Steph Curry and Anthony Morrow…


“Despite”? Morrow and Curry are among the most accurate long range shooters in the game. Both are much more efficient than Odom has been this year. Getting guys who are significantly above average in scoring efficiency (in Morrow’s case, outrageously so) more shots would be a good thing.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 12:46 PM PST up reply actions  

don't u think part of reason they get open looks is because of monta's high shot volume

Him taking an abundance of shots (and not shooting a poor percentage… he just needs to get to line a little more) opens up a lot of looks for Morrow who is a marksmen, but not exactly a guy who can create his own shot or even come off screens.

I’d like to see Monta be more efficient and recognize your point that he isnt (well it isn’t really your point, it’s more of a fact) BUT the fact he’s shown me in the past he can be very efficient lends me to believe there is more going on. Mainly a lack of support.

Monta had a TS% of .580 in 07-08… a percentage Kobe has only hit once in (surprise) a year he had bynum/Odom and later Gasol.

I realize the major difference is Monta did it at a lower volume of shots. But i don’t I strongly believe, if he had the supporting cast kobe does, his efficiency would go thru the roof, just because he’d feel compelled to feed the post and not have to take everyone on.

by tafkasam on Feb 9, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

cont'd

Thats my biggest issue with Hollingers article. He doesn’t ask WHY or conclude any sort of actual analysis of the numbers. Just points them out and claims Monta is not good because of this.

by tafkasam on Feb 9, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

" just because he’d feel compelled to feed the post and not have to take everyone on."

The problem is that Monta isn’t compelled to take everyone on. He’s making that choice. And that’s a bad choice.

It’s not that Monta’s high shot volume gets Morrow open looks, it’s that Monta’s ability to penetrate and draw defenders creates open looks for his teammates. The problem is that Monta, having create open looks for his teammates, still continues to shoot the ball himself.

If he were to pass more when the defense collapsed on him, one of two things would happen:

A) Morrow and others would get more open shots, scoring more efficiently than Monta did or …

B) Teams would stop collapsing on Monta, giving him easier shots, and seeing his percentage go up.

Either one is good. It’s a great catch-22 to put opposing teams in – they collapse and give up the outside shot or they don’t and Monta beats them one-on-one.

Right now, Monta is making it easy on our opponents by forcing the shot too often. This means they can leave our shooters open with little penalty, and get a low-percentage shot from Monta.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

the way the coaches explained it was that they speak to Monta about driving & kicking but that when Monta drives to the hoop he is going so fast that he often can’t pinpoint who has gotten open on the outside. whether you buy that or not is up to you.

by homer simpson on Feb 9, 2010 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Plus he doesn’t have the handles to keep his head up and alert scanning for all his teammates, or to have the ball under tight enough control to always be able to make the pass when the passing lane is open….

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm going to say

Randolph’s ball handing is on par with Ellis’ for the most part. Ellis has no control in his left hand, and he can barely not carry with his right. i think he could make a tremendous leap in his efficiency if he could simply dribble the ball like an average shooting guard.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 7:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep, the more I watch, the more convinced I become that his ballhandling is holding back his entire offensive game significantly. I think he’d make better decisions, see the floor better, have better timing on his passes (in terms of when his teammates are open, when the passing lanes are there, etc), and turn it over less….overall, his whole game would improve dramatically.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Is that something he can learn? I’ve been under the impression that handles are much rarer to see developed than a jumper. I can’t think of players that have taken the leap from combo guard to a legit point with handles. Chauncey maybe? I’d like to know more.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I honestly have no idea. It stands to reason that it’s learnable – if he spends all offseason working on his left hand, working on getting the ball lower when he dribbles….there are tons of easy dribbling drills a player can do, all you need is a ball, so it’s easy enough to work on, and if you work hard enough, you will get better….but yeah, I don’t know how often guys do actually significantly improve in that department, especially if you’re talking short amounts of time like a year or two.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:51 AM PST up reply actions  

I can vouch against that a bit

My ball handling is not very good, especially with my right hand. I can dribble and can sometimes get by people (especially in my youth), but if you get a good defender on me, he/she will probably pick my pocket. However, I do keep my head up, I am able to make good passes, and when I beat my man I can find the open player if help comes. It’s more than just “being a better ball handler,” is all I’m sayin’. I think a big part of it is that Monta is just too confident in his ability to score over the help defense. It’s both a blessing and a curse. It allows him to make some crazy plays, and he is indeed good at scoring over the help defense… he’s just not as good at it as other NBA players shooting open shots.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t mean to imply that’s the only problem, just a big problem that would help not just his scoring or turnovers, but every part of his offensive game, from decision making, to vision, to passing, to limiting turnovers, creating for teammates, scoring efficiency…I think it would all improve with significantly better ballhandling on Monta’s part, but yeah, he has other areas he can improve, too.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

It's possible

Improving his game in that aspect should help a lot, especially since he’s dribbling the ball a lot. What I think would help even more is a team philosophy to pass the ball more instead of dribbling the ball. I’m getting tired of the dribbling show. It’d be one thing if we had a great dribbler, but we don’t. The strategy of having bad dribblers dribble the ball around doesn’t make sense.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

/sjax runs into 3 people
/take a shot

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it would all improve with significantly better ballhandling on Monta’s part,

  It would also improve if we had a big point guard that could handle and defend larger opposing 2 guards so Montay could play off the ball and defend opposing smaller point guards. His efficiency would rise with the right team composition and game plans.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

big point guard

I immediately thought Baron. If he wasn’t such a chucker I would still have very strong man feelings for him.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Randolph? Great for a big, but I’d love to see him handle the rock well enough to get to the rim the way Monta does. I know there are more factors in getting to the rim. But it’s still an exaggeration.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I've heard that comment ...

But if so, then that’s a major limitation on Monta’s game. I mean, yes, he’s quick, but there are plenty of other guys who have been just as quick who haven’t had that problem.

If he has bad court awareness, that makes him a worse player. If he is not capable of making the pass when he should, that makes him a worse player.

It doesn’t matter WHY Monta doesn’t make that pass – it’s merely the fact that he doesn’t make that pass which affects one’s evaluation of his play.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta had a TS% of .580 in 07-08… I realize the major difference is Monta did it at a lower volume of shots.

During this time, he became known as “The One Man Fastbreak,” had a top tier PG giving him the ball when he made cuts, and the like. Sure, he had a memorable Feb when he made every single jump shot he took, but the VAST majority of the influence on his efficiency was that somebody else was helping him create his shot. Basically, he was taking the same number of easy shots, and far fewer difficult ones.

Now? He is trying to do it all by himself. Clearly, it’s not working. He either needs to be more of a PG and distribute the ball to the shooters when the defense collapses on him and takes away his shot OR he needs to have somebody else take the reins as the primary ball handler so he can go back to making cuts and getting the ball in situations where he’ll have a decided advantage. Monta is not a superduperstar, he’s just a really, really good player stuck in a situation where (like Jax last year) he’s forced to do more on the basketball court than he’s capable. Sure, it inflates his PPG and APG stats, while simultaneously hurting his efficiency stats (all of them).

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I’m guessing this the last word on a very good thread chain here. It’s a shame that the likely Nellie-inspired jack-it-up attitude are holding him back. As for his handles holding him back, it’s a part of his game, we can point out a lot of ways he could be better but if he isn’t capable I can’t fault him, only hope he tries to improve on it.

Comparing him to some of the jackers/team leaders we’ve had in the recent past, Monta is getting a little more blame than I feel like giving out. I hope Nellie’s departure can have some sort of positive impact on his game.

If we were to get Wall, I would hate to choose who to trade between our guards. Articles and the perception going around of Monta as an inefficient volume shooter may make his value decline. I’m not sure PPG is all it takes anymore to be coveted by adequant FOs, see Maggette. I want to see Monta overcome these issues and be relied upon less, so I’d be pretty ok with a 2nd pick.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Blaming Monta ...

I suspect that if Monta is getting more blame, it’s in large part because we’re a much worse team.

We’re really bad right now. Yes, injuries have played a role, but getting guys back hasn’t seemed to make much difference.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 9:29 AM PST up reply actions  

This
I suspect that if Monta is getting more blame, it’s in large part because we’re a much worse team.

It’s like any team sport ever. The face of a bad franchise is unfairly blamed for more than his/her share of the losing. This will continue until the end of time… and impacts far more than just sports. Hey, how’s Obama doing these days?

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

The face of a bad franchise is unfairly blamed for more than his/her share of the losing.

And probably faces of good franchises get more credit than they deserve ( i.e. Bryant)..

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Playoffs?!?!!?

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 7:05 PM PST up reply actions  

maybe if monta would get calls he would be a lot more efficient!

when ever is simply touched it is an automatic foul however monta gets tossed around and somehow refs rarely ever call them!

by leo2008 on Feb 9, 2010 1:31 PM PST up reply actions  

In those cases (and there’s 4 or 5 of them a game) I want him to pass the ball to someone else.

   That would just mean 2 or 3 missed shots by other players so the team results wouldn’t improve. Montay needs a star quality player to help him out instead of some third bananas and a constant stream of rookies. A coach with a different “system” wouldn’t hurt either. Put him on San Antonio with Duncan and see how he plays before sayin he’s over rated, I think he’s rated just about right, one step below an allstar selection.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Except one of the points we’ve been making is we a few other guys who are decent scorers. We would improve. You’re right that we still wouldn’t be good, I don’t think anyone is arguing we would be, but we’d be better. In a different situation, I think Monta would be more effective and potentially a step below an allstar selection, but just based on his production this year, he’s not even there. He hasn’t been all that good this year.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

good post

I’m a little peeved because I posted about this same article about a half hour before this went up and it was deleted, but it’s ok.

This is why I think people who observe the game mostly by looking at stats don’t have a good sense of personnel. Monta Ellis is a star. Yes, he is a scorer first. Yes, he puts up a lot of shots. Yes, he misses a lot of shots. However, if Hollinger picked his head up out of the stat sheet, he would see what Ellis has had to deal with this year.

-Being asked to lead a team decimated with injuries.
-Being asked to play heavy minutes, including several games playing all 48.
-Guarding the star shooting guards on the other team who generally have a sizeable height advantage.

With all that being said, he has become a force to be dealt with this year. He has impoved his court vision, and has averaged a career high in assists. His three point shooting has improved dramatically. He is a much better defender. He SHOULD be an all-star. Guys like Hollinger will never understand a player’s true impact on a team.

by bayareaballa on Feb 9, 2010 11:21 AM PST reply actions  

What Monta's asked to do:

“-Being asked to lead a team decimated with injuries.”

Yes … and no. It’s not clear that Monta’s performance would be very different if we had fewer injuries. After all, the names on the injured list have varied all season, and Monta has done the same thing all year. Furthermore, most of our major injuries have been to frontcourt players – Biedrins, Turiaf, Randolph, and Wright, and yet our other guards haven’t had the same issues Monta has.

“-Being asked to play heavy minutes, including several games playing all 48. "

This is true, and its very damming of the coach. It’s quite possible that Monta’s performance would be better on a per-minute level if he played fewer minutes. It’s also possible that it wouldn’t. You can’t call a player an all-star based on what he MAYBE, POSSIBLY could do if he was utilized better by his coach. You can only judge him by what he’s done on the floor.

“-Guarding the star shooting guards on the other team who generally have a sizeable height advantage.”

Ultimately, this is only sort of a mark in Monta’s favor. While he’s had a couple of games – particularly against Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant – where he’s looked like a great defender, too often he’s mailing it in, being lazy, and playing like he doesn’t care. Now, again, some of this falls on the coach – for playing him too many minutes, for not making Monta’s defense a priority like he does with other players *cough*Randolph*cough*.

But at the same time, when Monta shows he’s capable of the kind of defensive performance he gave against Roy, it’s all the more damming when in some games he doesn’t even try.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

ok

You had some good points. My thing with Monta is that I think he has done a great job defensively this year. You have to realize they are asking him to shoulder the load on offense and also guard the better guard on defense. Oh also, they want him to play most if not all the minutes in the game. Name me one all star who has to do all of that.

by bayareaballa on Feb 9, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m a little peeved because I posted about this same article about a half hour before this went up and it was deleted,

  Mods are overrated . What happened to the Wall thread ? Anyone know where it is?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

This highlights a lot of Monta’s problems. Basically, this year, he hasn’t played winning basketball. Defense, scoring efficiency, creating for teammates, not turning it over, rebounding….all things that winning basketball teams do, and Monta hasn’t been doing them well this year. I do think Monta would perform better in a lesser role – but that’s kind of the point, he’s not a star, or an All-star, because real stars play winning basketball no matter what circumstances they’re in. It might not make their team good, but it does make their team better, and right now, in the current role he’s trying to fill, Monta doesn’t even do that. Right now, he’s just not good enough to be the top player on a good team. He’s either a good player on a bad team (because he’s contributing to that team being bad), or a complementary player on a good team.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 11:36 AM PST reply actions  

Basically, this year, he hasn’t played winning basketball. Defense…

But but but, Monta played good defense on Brandon Roy that one game! He’s a lock-down defender!

Just kidding. I find it a bit annoying that everyone thinks Monta has improved significantly on the defensive end based on one or two good games. I equate it to when Corey Maggette drew three charges on LaMarcus Aldridge a while back and then everyone thought Maggette was the best post defender we have. Monta just happens to be putting forth more effort on defense than before (when he put no effort at all). However, effort =/= improvement. For instance, the fouls on 3pt shooters at the end of quarters is the result of effort, not good defense. I applaud his effort (during the rest of the time in the game, not those last second fouls) but I’m still definitely worried that our backcourt will give up just as much as they give.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Feb 9, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

let's be fair

Monta didn’t foul J.R. Smith or whoever the Dallas player was last night (Terry?). It is good defense, but bad reffing. You can say a smart defender wouldn’t have given the refs a chance to call those fouls, but in a pure game they’re not fouls and that’s why we hate it so much when they’re called.

"Hold it. The Schwarzenegger Library?" - John Spartan after hearing Arnold became President, from Demolition Man

by 61st Amendment on Feb 9, 2010 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

but in a pure game they’re not fouls

There is no such thing as a pure game, which is why it is bad defense to attempt things like that in the first place.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Feb 9, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions  

So blame the refs. If you play good defense and do not commit a foul, you have done your job. If the refs call a foul, they have not done theirs. But who are you blaming?

by belilaugh on Feb 10, 2010 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I try my best not to let refs ruin the sport for me. It’s how it is, robots would be better but hey it’s out of our control.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

…okay…so blame the other refs then. What’s your point?

by belilaugh on Feb 11, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta’s definitely benefiting from the high pace that Nellie’s system provides. However, he’s surrounded by inferior talent due to injuries and poor roster configuration by the Warriors. Thus, he’s been forced into the alpha dog roll and perhaps he’s trying to force the issue on the offensive end to make up for the rest of the team’s short comings. The only problem I have with that is that he’s just not the type of player at this point that can signal handedly carry his team to victories.

A Sonics fan without a team... but after 6 seasons now of GS Warriors season tickets have convinced me to adopt the boys from Oakland.

by mcwalter44 on Feb 9, 2010 11:49 AM PST reply actions  

At the Warriors' fast pace

Monta should be averaging MORE than 5.4 assists per game. At the pace this team plays at, he should be averaging 7-8 assists a game, if he can manage that in the next year or two, he would not only be considered an all star, but we’d be winning way more games. Granted, we need better pieces around him, cause he can pass all day, but if nobody can finish, all those passes are gone to waste.

WARRIORS BASKETBALL!!! Patiently waiting for a title...I may be waiting for a long time...

by JustSomeName on Feb 9, 2010 12:01 PM PST reply actions  

And as much as the talent level on our team has been….subpar for most of this season to say the least, we still do have guys who offensively give Monta good options. CJ, Buike, Morrow and Curry are some of the better set shooters in the league – they’ve had some injuries, and they have their limitations overall as players, but every one of them can knock down set jumpers with the best shooters in the NBA. Those are real options to take shots instead of Monta forcing the issue, if he created for them more often, we’d win more often. Biedrins is another great option, he might not be able to create much for himself, but he’s arguably the very best big man in the league when it comes to catching and finishing – let’s get him more involved in the offense like he was last year. Those types of things will help us win, rather than Monta forcing the issue for himself as often as he does.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions  

cj has shot a horrible percentage from 3 this year, and buike has missed the whole year.

So really we’re talking about Morrow, who has had some injuries and slumps and a rookie who started coming into his own in mid-january.

I really urge you to consider this scenario next year when we r fully healthy (hopefully) and curry and morrow and others have developed a bit more.

by tafkasam on Feb 9, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

You’re right Watson hasn’t been as good last year as he has in the past, but he’s still a 36.5% 3 point shooter for his career, which is a better indicator of his actual talent level than just the 87 3’s he’s attempted so far this season. So, he’s a decent shooter, “among the best” might be overblown, but he’s still above average in overall efficiency, and his 3 point shooting adds to that….so it’s still a worthwhile option. Also – don’t discount Curry, his overall game might not have been that good initially, but the kid’s always been able to shoot. All of those guys are quality 3 point shooters and have shoot a good overall efficiency, so it stands to reason even if more shots bring their efficiency down somewhat, those shots are still better ones than Monta’s taking. Plus Biedrins!

Anyways, it’s not like we’re talking Al Jefferson here, a guy who’s never shown a glimpse of being a team player or efficient scorer – Monta does have some history to suggest he can do better, it’s just his performance this season hasn’t been good and if he wants to start contributing to our team winning, he’s going to have to change his game for the better, shoot less, pass more, cut down on his TO’s, and make sure he sustains his defensive effort on a consistent basis. We’ll see if that happens.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 1:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Playing next to a strong rebounder can lower one’s rebounds. Is it possible Monta’s assists are lower because of Curry’s presence?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:26 PM PST up reply actions  

No, because neither of them are getting alot of assists.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Playing next to a strong rebounder can lower one’s rebounds.

It does, but not to the degree most people seem to think it does.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

The problem with John Hollinger...

last year, in his “PER Diem,” he ranked Shane Battier as 272 out of 322 players.

enough said.

If you accept Monta as overrated because Hollinger’s cute little statistics show so, then you have to accept things like Karl Malone being better than Shaq or Kareem because he averaged more ppg, or Allen Iverson being better than Kobe because he averaged more ppg, or Tim Duncan not being one of the greatest players ever because his stats don’t jump off the page for mathematical calculations that don’t really effect the game of basketball.

What Hollinger does is very interesting. It’s also, currently, very pointless.

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:05 PM PST reply actions  

Look, the whole mentality of proving a statistic doesn’t work because one player you can find seems to be better than the stats say is BS. That’s a stupid argument. That said, Hollinger’s stats like PER aren’t very good. BUT, when he starts talking about things like scoring efficiency….well, then he really is talking about winning basketball, and that’s something Monta hasn’t brought this year, and until he does start scoring efficiently again, he’s really not doing much to help us win. That’s not some voodoo mathematical calculation, that’s just understanding the game of basketball.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

true, but there are still other factors

like I mentioned in an earlier post, Monta has a higher fg% than Kobe Bryant, and a higher 3FG% as well, despite the fact that he has much worse second, third and fourth options than Kobe does.

So yes, I agree that efficiency is huge. but there are intangibles. When the giant Corey Maggette debate went on, many people felt Corey was stupid because he took low percentage shots. Then others pointed out that he has to take low percentage shots to keep the defense honest, so that he can score so efficiently. So yes, monta isn’t the most efficient player. But you think of coaches like Doc Rivers talking about adjusting for him, and you have to factor in the impact he has on the other nine players even when he’s not passing them the ball. If you counted buckets scored because of offensive presence as assists, Monta would be averaging double digits.

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

When the giant Corey Maggette debate went on, many people felt Corey was stupid because he took low percentage shots. Then others pointed out that he has to take low percentage shots to keep the defense honest, so that he can score so efficiently.

This is entirely different. It was stupid in the first place for people to criticize Corey’s shot selection because he was a very efficient scorer overall. Monta on the other hand can be fairly criticized for failing to score efficiently because, on the whole, his efficiency is well below average.

"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."

by olympicmike on Feb 9, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

BTW...

Corey Maggette getting criticized for taking long jump shots is a perfect example of a time when using the right stats to understand his efficiency better would have helped a lot of people who “just watch the games.”

"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."

by olympicmike on Feb 9, 2010 1:21 PM PST up reply actions  

then you have to accept things like Karl Malone being better than Shaq or Kareem because he averaged more ppg,

No, you do not. You do not have to accept that someone with a higher PPG is better just because of a higher PPG. That’s not at all what an advanced statistical analysis would tell you to do. You couldn’t have picked a poorer example.

or Tim Duncan not being one of the greatest players ever because his stats don’t jump off the page for mathematical calculations that don’t really effect the game of basketball.

This is false. The mathematical calcs on Duncan’s stats support that he’s been among the game’s very best. I don’t know what calculations you are doing that don’t really effect the game, but the onces that have been derived from how they do correlate with effect on the game show that Duncan is elite.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions  

my point was that people blindly look at stats. some stupid fans are quick to point out a player is better because of his ppg, and I think, to a lesser extent, the same is true with Hollinger’s stats. you see a stat proving one player is “better” or “more efficient” and we let it hold more water than it should.

It is impossible to prove MJ is the best player ever based on stats. There are plenty of other people you could put ahead of him (Russell, Wilt, Bird, LBJ, etc.,) looking at stats. There are just so many other things in basketball. I mean, look at Chauncey Billups – so many people here say that he deserved that all-star spot over monta, and he’s a less efficient scorer, and really not a great passer. He’s great at managing a game, and how do you quantify that??

by bradyk2 on Feb 9, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

There are just so many other things in basketball. I mean, look at Chauncey Billups – so many people here say that he deserved that all-star spot over monta, and he’s a less efficient scorer, and really not a great passer. He’s great at managing a game, and how do you quantify that??

Again, you really should try to chose your examples better. It would help if you didn’t present things that were factually incorrect as evidence to begin with.

Chauncey’s stats suggest that he’s very, very good. His TS% is in the elite range (above .600 is really amazing). He is not a less efficient scorer. It’s not even close. (Please, please, please learn what it means to call someone an efficient scorer. You do not seem to understand this one). He’s a less efficient in overall FG%, but that’s a poor measure because it doesn’t take into account that many more of his FGs are made three pointers and it ignores his superior ability to get to the line. Only looking at stats, Billups is quite good, much, much better than Monta has been.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

superior ability to get to the line

Definitely makes a difference ! Especially with the game on the line

by NIC26WARRIORS on Feb 9, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

He’s great at managing a game, and how do you quantify that??

Assist / turnover ratio has somewhat of an indication on game management, especially for a PG and especially in the 4th quarter plus PPG And FG % has nothing to do with how efficeint he is.
 But I agree with the fact that stats are often used too freely and will always be one step back on the next game since they are based on “played games” … Great Indicators nonetheless especially for lazy observers !

by NIC26WARRIORS on Feb 9, 2010 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

my point was that people blindly look at stats. some stupid fans are quick to point out a player is better because of his ppg, and I think, to a lesser extent, the same is true with Hollinger’s stats

True, many people don’t understand the stats, and even most of Hollinger’s stats are garbage – if you listen to the people that do understand which are the right stats, you’ll find they put almost no weight into anything Hollinger says. That said, scoring efficiency is the one thing he talked about that really is very important, and the one takeaway from Hollinger’s article that is a very legitimate and worthwhile point. Something like Hollinger’s point rating is a garbage stat, but scoring efficiency is not. Use TS%, and use it well, because it’s incredibly important.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Hollinger lost me when he suggested Baron was an All-Star this year

Otherwise I agree.

I know Ellis has some major flaws, but he has a good skill set to build on. He can most times create an offensive advantage. What he currently does with that advantage is a problem. But mostly I just hate hearing an outsider tell me how horrible my best player is, and make me feel just that more irrelevant as a W’s fan.

by Duh Duh Man on Feb 9, 2010 1:10 PM PST reply actions  

Hollinger lost me when he suggested Baron was an All-Star this year

Well, so many guards in the West are injured… there must not be very many left to choose from.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Feb 9, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, most players are injured so they’re stretching and digging now … based on leadership and team record, J.Kidd is always deserving and A.Brooks deserves it more than Baron in my opinion. Monta’s team has 13 wins … enough said !

by NIC26WARRIORS on Feb 9, 2010 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

True

 I wouldn’t mind seeing J-Kidd being named, at least he’s on a good team. Plus it could be a good send off for him at the end of his career, and passing is always great for All-Star games.

by Duh Duh Man on Feb 9, 2010 1:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Kidd does make the All-star game fun, I definitely agree to that. You need that one guy out there the other guys respect and give the ball to, knowing he’s gonna give it back up, otherwise it’s just a bunch of stars fighting for their chance to go 1 on 1 with a defender who isn’t trying…

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

How can he be overrated when

he wasn’t even selected as an All-Star. He was passed on by the coaches and the commish. Sounds to me like to people who are in the know aren’t overrating him. Who is Hollinger saying are the ones overrating him. If it’s Warriors fans of course, he’s all we got.

by pre10d on Feb 9, 2010 1:53 PM PST reply actions  

lol, true. maybe he means casual fans and people that play fantasy basketball

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Lets just put it this way...

If Monta is your best player you probably aren’t going to be a good team.

by GoldenSt8OfMind on Feb 9, 2010 2:02 PM PST reply actions  

any time a player logs the types of minutes Monta does and takes on as much responsibility as he does, efficiency numbers are going to take a big hit. He was a model of efficiency two years ago with Baron and Jack when he didn’t have to do everything.

by sjsnider on Feb 9, 2010 2:15 PM PST reply actions  

any time a player logs the types of minutes Monta does and takes on as much responsibility as he does, efficiency numbers are going to take a big hit.

not top pile on, but throughout NBA history, there have been plenty of instances where guys have played more minutes than Monta and been as efficient as they have been in other seasons.

by homer simpson on Feb 9, 2010 7:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Heck, Gerald Wallace is doing it this season. He is playing 42.1mpg and his .592 TS% is the highest of his career.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Feb 9, 2010 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

That is really impressive. Who the hell is on the Bobcats anyway? I just lost faith in some of my defenses for Monta haha. Get Iggy with it or bring Gay to the bay!

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 9, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions  

07-08 > 09-10 Monta

See that’s the thing. Monta is a good player, but I don’t think he should be an all star, not yet anyway. Last year a lot of people were frustrated that Al Jefferson didn’t make the all star team, Monta is in that exact same position. Jefferson and Monta get a lot of praise because of the stats they produce, but there’s a lot of negativity in those stats. Both of the players take a lot of shots (right now, Monta is barely #2 in the league with shot attempts per game). But at least we’ve seen what Monta can do as the second best player on the team. So saying Monta is overrated is understandable, but I think that he’s a good player, just not all star worthy yet. Now, if we had a good PG such as Baron Davis, Monta would be highly considered an all star because his stats would be ridiculous playing the off guard spot with a true PG.

by DubsFan408 on Feb 9, 2010 3:14 PM PST reply actions  

Yep, the difference between Monta and Jefferson is Monta has actually shown the ability to be a different type of player in the past – the type of player that DOES contribute to winning teams. He just hasn’t been that player this season. Jefferson has been a player that doesn’t contribute much to winning (like Monta this year) for his whole career.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

How can you contribute to winning on a losing team?

by making it lose by less points than a worse player would. Contributions can be positive or negative from any given level of goodness or badness, the winning or losing record is just a factor of what level the team nominally inhabits.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

So Monta should aspire

to play good enough basketball that his team loses by less than they are now? That’s not very ambitious. Would he really be a better player if he lost by less than he does in this, a season where the Dubs have had NUMEROUS losses that could easily have gone the other way if the ball bounced differently?

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

So Monta should aspire to play good enough basketball that his team loses by less than they are now?

 Well that’s all you can really do. If your team is down 20 points you can just say we’re not gonna win and give up, you gotta just play every possession and try to get it to down by 10 points then down by 5 points, etc. At some point a team becomes good enough that their normal game is a winner instead of a loser, it doesn’t make them better people or any one of them a better individual player , just a better team.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 5:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta's usually been benched though

on the occasions this season that the Warriors were being blown out of the building.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 5:55 PM PST up reply actions  

How can you contribute to winning on a losing team? Just in general?

Your team wins a significant number more games with you then they would with some other player in your place. If a player takes a 10 win team and turns them into a 25 win team just through his contributions, he’s certainly contributing a large degree of winning, despite the fact that a 25 win team still sucks.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:09 PM PST up reply actions  

So if Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant took Ellis' place on this team,

are you implying they could automatically lead this season’s roster to 15 more wins than the Warriors are on pace to get with Ellis?

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, I am saying if Lebron James or Wade were on this team instead of Ellis we’d have a lot more than 13 wins right now. I don’t know the exact number I’d say, but it would be a good amount more. I’m not mad about Monta not making the All-star team because if you swapped him with pretty much any other All-star, we’d have a decent amount more than 13 wins right now. I believe Ellis can be a useful player in a different role and with better teammates, and has shown us that in the past, but what he’s doing right now isn’t adding that much to our win total.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions  

So if Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant took Ellis’ place on this team, are you implying they could automatically lead this season’s roster to 15 more wins than the Warriors are on pace to get with Ellis?

Over the course of the year, I think swapping out Wade for Monta and nothing else would gain the Warriors at least 10 more wins, maybe more.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

There's no evidence to support

that Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant could lead the current Warriors’ roster to 10 more wins than Ellis. You just can’t say that without guessing. None of those guys have ever led borderline D-League teams to any semblance of success. That’s a fact.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 6:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Win Shares?
Or maybe the fact they are much more efficient.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Who's to say they would be more efficient

with the personnel of Monta’s supporting cast though?

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 6:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Two years ago when Miami was horrendous (15 wins IIRC) and Wade was hurt much of the time, and playing hurt when he did play, he was still an above average efficiency scorer. This speculation that he’d fall apart like Monta has doesn’t mesh with the actual evidence.

Actual evidence. You should try paying attention to it for once, Krazee.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, most people would consider that to be Wade’s worst year, and yet it is much better than Monta’s year right now.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobe Bryant lead two borderline D-League teams to the playoffs sans Shaq

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 6:58 PM PST up reply actions  

No

I don’t recall anyone from those teams playing on 10-day contracts.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

If Kwame Brown started out in the D-League he would never have gotten a 10-day contract.

by samuraaaaiiiiiii on Feb 9, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

No
Kobe couldn’t lead a decent team after shaq out of the first round of the playoffs.
Butler, Bynum, and Odom is enough for me….

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Wades Heat are sub .500 in the east

He alone would barely make this team better. Kobe would do better than Wade only because he is better defensively. Either way we’d still be a horrible team with like JAE said maybe 10 more wins at most. Honestly if we had PHIL JACKSON or POP or LARRY BROWN as our coach they’d have a bigger impact on wins or losses than Kobe or Wade!

by pre10d on Feb 9, 2010 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Hold on…. you are saying that Wade isn’t good because they have a losing record…. What if i told you, the Heat would be worse than us if they didn’t have Wade?
What if i told you that if we took Monta off this team we would have a similar record?
What if i told you that if we swapped Wade and Monta, that we would most likely have a .500 record, and that the Heat would be battling the T’Wolves for the 2nd worst team in the league……

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

According to the stats, i’m right.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm saying that Wade is good

because he’s taken his team toward significant team success. Insomuch as I feel contribution to team success should be the mark of a great player, Wade has accomplished a lot in his NBA career, whether it was dominating the old Pistons teams in the playoffs, or dominating the Mavericks in the Finals in 2006, or willing the Heat to a hard fought 7-game series against the Hawks last year in the first round. Note that Kobe hasn’t been as good for his teams in the playoffs.

Having said that, there’s no way you could matter-of-factly say D-Wade outperforms Ellis in a Warriors uniform, insomuch as the Warriors are much worse this season than any team D-Wade has ever played for. If D-Wade came in to fill Ellis’ shoes tomorrow for the rest of the season, he’d have the same exact overwhelming responsibilities as Ellis has had, with respects to going for exorbitant minutes, drawing all the defense’s attention, etc.

No way does D-Wade (or any other NBA Superstar) lead the Warriors to significant more success than they’ve had this season with Monta, no way. And you can’t convince me otherwise because the whole thing is hypothetical anyway. There’s no evidence to indicate the contrary!

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

the Warriors are much worse this season than any team D-Wade has ever played for

I’m not sure that’s true. A number of Wade’s teams (especially the last 4 seasons counting this one) have been pretty bad. The difference is Wade is that good. The whole reasoning behind saying we’d do significantly better with Wade (not good, mind you, just better) is that Wade’s production, in basically the exact same role is Ellis (minimal talent around him, reliant on him to carry the team on his own), has been much, much better than Ellis’. It stands to reason that replacing Ellis with the far superior Wade would make our team better.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

But if our team still wouldn't be "good",

and maybe just slightly “better”, as you’re saying, isn’t defending Wade>Ellis a mewt point at best? Especially when Wade has never played with a team which was as banged up n inexperienced as this Warriors one, with all the D-Leaguers constantly in flux?

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Huh?

“Good” isn’t some magic threshhold. Every little thing that you can do to make your team better matters.

Having 11 wins at this point in the season is A LOT worse than having 20 wins, although neither is “good.” THe notion that we shouldn’t care because neither of those meets some arbitrary definition of “good” is sort of bizzarre.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

He probably meant mute.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought he meant μ.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

What is μ.?

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Pronounced mu

it’s a letter in the Greek alphabet. It shows up a lot in science and math.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 5:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Haha, i like the fresh of breath air.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Haha, thanks. Wow, i looked odd with that.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes,

I think they’re very similar players in terms of styles and skills. Wade has more experience but I think Ellis can accomplish as much as Wade has with the Warriors over time.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Only Krazee Max

Us sane people don’t think so

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

According to the stats, i’m right.

What ? The pretend stats? Stat’s can’t prove anything that has not been played and entered into the records, they are a collection of history nothing more. People can use history to predict the future but not prove hypothetical situations.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 9:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless you actually look at stats like WP and Win Shares.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 9:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless you actually look at stats like WP and Win Shares.

 Just like the bible can “prove” it’s god is the true god and all the other gods are false?
    Stat’s are a collection of numbers of recorded history. They can’t “prove” any hypothetical situation because it is physically impossible to prove something that never happens. If something actually happens it “proves” it’s self and stats can then RECORD it.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure what you are looking at. WP and WinShares are stats to show how many wins a player adds to his team. Look at them…. they are almost spot on…. if you add them up, usually it adds up to the teams actual wins total.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure what you are looking at.

 I’m looking at the moving time line of next minute, this instant and past minute and the impossibility of anything being able to prove something on the other side of that line ?
   You can create all kinds of systems to massage stats into various patterns and match inputs of one category to output of another but they are all just predictions based on patterns of the past.
 Proof can only come from the actual event happening , no matter what stats say might happen if for instance Kobe and Montay changed places there’s zero possibility anything can prove it unless it actually crosses that time line from future to past. and if it does occur stats will absorb it and update the system but they won’t be the proof they’ll only be the record and the predictor.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 11:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Better proof than your hunches and intuition

 not really. Better predictions or even perfect predictions are not the proof, they just go along for the ride, the happening is the proof.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 11:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, this is the sort of thing that can be tested. You get your “hunches” and make a series of predictions and I’ll take statistical methodology. You don’t get to look at box scores. You don’t get to look at the stats leaders. I have to come up with a methodology ahead of time and stick to it. I’d wager that in total, I’m more accurate than the “hunches”.

Your notion of “proof” indicates that you don’t understand what statistical modeling is actually for. “Proof” is not a concept in this sort of science, but the model can be tested for how closely the predictions match future outcomes. If the model shows itself to be reasonably accurate, you trust it for hypothetical situations. If not, you reject it. No one except for those who (like you) haven’t a clue what a model is actually used for talk about “proof” in the ridiculous manner you have.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, this is the sort of thing that can be tested. You get your "hunches" and make a series of predictions and I’ll take statistical methodology.

It don’t matter what method we use we can’t “prove” something that never happens. You can collect all the stats you want to “prove” Wade would make the warriors better than Montay and I’ll just say yeah he would and be as close to proving it as you cause the situation has not yet passed the time line dividing possibility from reality. Is it that hard to understand?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Spoken like a true stats flunky who now cowardly backs away from the strength of his hunches.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

He's right, Jae.

All these stats in the world can’t definitively prove anything.

However, what statistics does in discussion is it gives more credibility to a person’s stance.

Some like Skeptic may not appreciate or care for the support, but there are other like myself who do.

In the end though, the only way we can truly prove anything is if we conduct an experiment and until you can but basketball players in a lab, we’ll never know. Statistics are just a way to give me support for your hypothesis, but they don’t prove it.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 10, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Statistics are just a way to give me support for your hypothesis, but they don’t prove it.

Once again, the term “prove” isn’t really meaningful. Being right that they don’t “prove” something indicates that he doesn’t know why one uses statistical models.

Statistical models (as opposed to the data) can be tested against real data sets to suggest how powerful they are at predicting based on analysis over past observed parameters. “Proof” is impossible, but putting together a model that is more likely right than not is far from impossible.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Being right that they don’t "prove" something indicates that he doesn’t know why one uses statistical models.

But I wasn’t discussing why or what one uses stats for, I was pointing out their ability to prove a hypothetical situation is none existent?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I was pointing out their ability to prove a hypothetical situation is none existent?

And that you are still talking about “proving” something displays a utter lack of understanding on your part as to what statistics are actually useful for.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

And that you are still talking about "proving" something displays a utter lack of understanding on your part as to what statistics are actually useful for.

But it shows I know more about sticking to the subject that I was responding to.
   My understanding of stats was not what I was discussing, I was discussing what stats can PROVE, not what they can project, predict, or clarify or confuse. What they can PROVE. and I’ll still say they can’t PROVE a hypothetical situation because nothing can PROVE something that don’t exist.
  and folks wonder why Iverson was frustrated by reporters than don’t understand what practice is all about !

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 11, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Statistical models (as opposed to the data) can be tested against real data sets to suggest how powerful they are at predicting based on analysis over past observed parameters. "Proof" is impossible, but putting together a model that is more likely right than not is far from impossible.

Exactly, what I said earlier.

They can’t conclusively prove anything, but they can support your argument.

Anyways, you’re preaching to the choir in regards to the usefulness of statistics, but I do think people get carried away and believe basketball can be simply explained through numbers.

Check out Goallineblitz - Free Football MMORPG
Build players, Build teams, watch games...

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by FLAxwless on Feb 10, 2010 6:49 PM PST up reply actions  

In the end though, the only way we can truly prove anything is if we conduct an experiment and until you can but basketball players in a lab, we’ll never know.

voila!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFhS5F7ubJs

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:19 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL.
" We bring in NBA superstar…. Sasha Vujacic"
/ shuts computer.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

be as close to proving it as you

Well, no, if you have strong evidence, you might not “prove” something, but you’re a lot more likely right than if you don’t have strong evidence. If I jump off the Golden Gate bridge, I have a pretty good idea what’s going to happen – I’m going to fall, and eventually hit the water. Now, I haven’t ever done so, so it’s a “hypothetical situation”, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a good idea of what will happen….

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

so it’s a "hypothetical situation", but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a good idea of what will happen….

  The outcome of hypothetical situations can be projected but my point is we wouldn’t know for SURE that it killed you till you actually hit the water.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

And that’s what I’m saying, too, but we use statistics to get a pretty good idea of what’s going to happen. No, we don’t know for sure, but we have a better idea than if we just guessed.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

No, we don’t know for sure, but we have a better idea than if we just guessed.

  Haha, It depends on one’s observational skills I guess, but I could stand up there and make a pretty quick assessment that it would kill you where jae might need to consult the stat book? Same thing trading, the neural net might say go long but if the tape is sayin south I’ll go with my observation.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

People can use history to predict the future but not prove hypothetical situations.

Sure, but if we’re going to talk hypothetical situations, it seems that using evidence to try to make a point is a much more solid thought process and makes you more likely to be right then just guessing based on no evidence?

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Is this like

that thing on ESPN.com, where a computer is used to predict what the final conference standings for the season will be at the end of the season, based on what the team records have been? Because those things are often way off… and the playoff matchup predictions have fared even worse, historically. LeBron would already be a champion if those statistical measures had more substance.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

OK, Krazee dude. You’ve now tacked from the ridiculous (“Monta is the second coming of Jordan”) to the existential (“what does anyone really know anyway?”) So I’m going to put a question back to you in multiple choice form. Assuming two exactly equal teams, one with Monta and one with LeBron, what difference in W-L performance would you expect?

A. None.
B. Slight advantage LeBron team (say between 1 and 10 games).
C. Significant advantage LeBron team (over 10 games)
D. Slight advantage Monta team
E. Significant advantage Monta team
F. There is no way for a mere mortal to possibly estimate such a thing.

Think hard. And imagine, when thinking, that you’re not just posting/trolling on an internet board, but that you’re a highly paid GM, spending millions of someone’s fortune to make educated guesses about these sorts of things.

There might not be a 100% “correct” answer, but there’s a very clear best answer.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Or, to put it simpler,

are u simply plugging Monta into LeBron’s Cavs team and plugging LeBron into Monta’s Warriors team?

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Doesn't matter. For ANY given set of supporting players.

If you like, assume a supporting cast of NBA average players. Or assume the current Warriors. Answer different for different situations, if you like.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure you’re being deliberately obtuse, but just to make it clearer, I’ll spell out the two teams.

Team A
Curry
Azubuike
LeBron
Randolph
Biedrins
Bench: Turiaf, Wright, Morrow, Turner

Team B
Curry
Monta
Azubuike
Randolph
Biedrins
Bench: Turiaf, Wright, Morrow, Turner

I chose Kelenna ‘cos he’s a pretty standard issue “complementary 2-3” without any obvious style that shouId mesh better or worse with one type of player or another.

I await your answer to my rather simple question.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I suspect you are either a champion troll, Monta Ellis’s agent or mom, or absolutely positively insane.

You are seriously saying that if we got rid of Monta and brought in Lebron we’d do worse?

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Jae,

how the hell did get that from me picking B. Slight advantage LeBron team (say between 1 and 10 games)?

To quote Sleepy: “Read to achieve, man!”

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

In fairness, I confused the situation by calling the teams A and B in my most recent post — a confusion you did nothing to clear up by simply throwing out a letter from my original multiple choice. It’s a lot to expect from readers, even careful ones like jae, to trace the source of our silly discussion rather than assume you were referring to my most recent post.

Either way, based on your recent straight-faced application of the term “modern day Michael Jordan” to Monta Ellis, the substance of jae’s comment stands. So which is it?

A. champion troll
B. Monta Ellis’s agent or mom
C. absolutely positively insane

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I read. It appeared that you were picking Sleepy’s team B, the one with Monta.

“Write for clarity, man!”

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

If the players simply reversed teams

or were traded for each other straight up, just for the sake of the argument, n it was Monta Ellis in the Cavaliers backcourt with Mo Williams n LeBron in the Warriors’ frontcourt with Anthony Tolliver n Andris Biedrins, I’d have to say E. If you’re talking about a different context with different players, you’d have to be more specific before I could decide that answer.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

If the players simply reversed teams or were traded for each other straight up [snip]

Sigh. Read to achieve, man.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure that Kobe is better than Wade defensively. Kobe is a great on ball defender when he tries, but he rarely puts in consistent effort to be anything more than “meh” – he usually spends his time on the other teams weakest offensive wing floating around playing help D and generally not putting much effort in on that side of the court. Wade’s ridiculous length and athleticism make him a good defender, though I don’t watch the Heat often and couldn’t tell you how hard he’s trying on that end…

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I saw one dunk of the night, I don’t know how long ago, in which Wade completely let some scrub get past him. I don’t see people drive past Kobe often, but I don’t watch either of these teams that much. According to basketball-reference, Wade is typically a little better in defensive win shares, though Kobe has been better this year.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 12:11 AM PST up reply actions  

Kobe is definately a better defender than Wade

but they both play serious defense only part of the time. Albeit more time than Monta does.

by pre10d on Feb 10, 2010 12:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Albeit more time than Monta does.

I wouldn’t say that about Kobe. Like I said, he almost always takes the easiest defensive assignment and just floats around on help D not doing much. He’s certainly a much, much better defender than Monta when they’re both putting the effort forward, but Monta (and pretty much everyone else in the NBA) more consistently put the effort in than Kobe…

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 6:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, if Kobe were playing the Dallas Mavericks, he would never guard Terry, Horward, or Barea. He most likely would guard Kidd or Marion ( the least difficult to guard).

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:44 PM PST up reply actions  

But if we's STILL be a horrible team with Wade instead of Ellis,

then the whole argument that Wade is better than Ellis is completely mewt, when there’s no evidence of Wade being able to carry a D-League team to any sort of success whatsoever. I mean, Wade did still have Jason Williams, Shawn Marion, and Udonis Haslem on that 15-win team that season. NOT Anthony Tolliver, Coby Karl, Chris Hunter, and Cartier Martin.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

*moot

All discussion that happens on this website is of no consequence. We do it because it’s fun and we like doing it.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

There’s no evidence to support that Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant could lead the current Warriors’ roster to 10 more wins than Ellis. You just can’t say that without guessing.

I can say it with more than guessing. I can say it based on an analysis of how an individual’s performance influences the probabilty of his team winning. This has been studied to a degree that the predictions drawn from it are rather good. The relative quality of performance of Wade vs Monta suggests that Wade would add more than 10 wins.

It’s not guesswork. You may not be able to comprehend it. You may wish it wasn’t true, but it’s not guesswork. There is evidence. Your statement that there is not is simply false.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

There actually is plenty of evidence:

In the form of Wins produced.

At the midpoint of the season, according to WP, Wade had produced six more wins that Ellis. Lebon has produced 12 more wins.

Remember that WP is remarkably accurate at predicting team wins based on individual stats. It is consistent when players are trading, implying that teammates have little effect on it.

It is not perfect evidence, but it’s a long long way from a wild guess.

Honestly, the Warriors without Ellis stack up pretty favorably with the Cavaleirs without LeBron. Yes, injuries mean you’d probably pick them this year, but it’s a LOT closer than you think. Maggette is better than any non-LeBron Cav, and they would love to have Biedrins rebounding and mobility.

That’s how good LeBron is.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I really don’t like Wins Produced. Much prefer Win Shares. There’s a thread on her somewhere with some criticism of the design by Dave Berri. This works for me
http://www.amazon.com/review/R70O0SQK9HC2M/ref=cm_cr_pr_viewpnt#R70O0SQK9HC2M

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 12:16 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't like Win Shares because it's retroactive given the number of wins you already have.

That being said, that link has been posted before, and I have some problems with it. Taking his points one at a time.

Warning, wonkiness ahead:

1) It’s not clear that Berri is confusing correlation with causality in this example. It would be very easy to test for this – does a team which doesn’t change its roster tend to improve? Yes, good teams will tend to stay together, and that will confuse the analysis, but it’s not hard to tease out the real data in situations like this. You certainly can’t make a blanket claim that he’s confusing correlation with causality here.

3) Is just faulty because WP includes lots of things that aren’t in “teams points when player is on the floor” and ends up being a much better predictor going forward. It’s also much more stable. “Team points when player is on the floor” varies a lot when players change teams, WP doesn’t. WP has predictive value, TPWPIOTF doesn’t.

4) This one makes a lot of intuitive sense, but as Jae has pointed out many times, factually wrong: rebounding rates are remarkably stable. There is little evidence that players rebound better when they are traded to a worse-redbounding team (see, for example, Turiaf).

5) They don’t actually say that they make players worse, they make them less productive. An important difference.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 9:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Interesting. I’ll look more into it. I just hate doing so because Berri comes off as such a (edit: poopyface)

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Does WP take int account strength of schedule?

The Heat do play in the east which only has 4 good teams. About two thirds of their games are in conference. I don’t doubt they’d win a few more with Wade but to put a number on it is questionable.

by pre10d on Feb 10, 2010 12:17 AM PST up reply actions  

About two thirds of their games are in conference.

 

There’s little evidence that strength of schedule really plays that much difference in player performance in the NBA. A couple of years ago I noted that a team’s winning percentage in conference was almost always statistically insignificantly different from their games against non-conference opponents. If there’s an effect, it seems to be in the realm of statistical noise.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:39 AM PST up reply actions  

OK, are you talking about the season where the Heat won 15 games?

And I’m also very curious to know what these “Win Shares” predicted for the Warriors in the preseason and to see how they’ll predict Ellis and a healthy Warriors team will do next season.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

Stats of a player doesn’t mean that much unless the team starts to win games. Monta puts up 26 PPG 5.4 APG while Brandon Roy puts up 23 PPG and 5 APG and yet Roy gets the all star selection. Someone like Roy is very effective and even if his stats aren’t that great compared to some players, he’s still effective and helps his team win, which is the definition of what an all star should be.

by DubsFan408 on Feb 9, 2010 6:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta puts up 26 PPG 5.4 APG while Brandon Roy puts up 23 PPG and 5 APG and yet Roy gets the all star selection.

The stats you cite, with no other context, don’t tell the story though. Monta puts up 26 ppg by taking more shots and playing more minutes. Monta takes 5 more shots a game to get 3 more points. That’s a terrible terrible return on those shots. He gets 5.4 assists with more minutes played and far more turnovers than Roy, who takes good care of the ball. Those differences aren’t insignificant. They’re the difference between winning (in Roy’s case) and losing basketball.

Misusing stats doesn’t mean that much. But the stats mean exactly what they mean, and in this case, they’re a dead giveaway as to whose team is winning more games.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Read the whole post jae… he just said even though it looks like monta has better stats, roy is more efficient and effective.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I read the whole post. He said Roy was more effective.

He did not say that Roy was more efficient. Really. He didn’t.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m confused…. wouldn’t effective and efficient be pretty similar?
But i see what you are saying in regards to how he misused stats…. because Monta’s stats don’t look that great if you look at them correctly.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 10:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Efficient has a specific meaning. Effective? Could mean many things. Could be a synonym for “good” and why someone attributes Roy to being more effective could be many things. Someone could attribute it to him ‘making his teammates better’, ‘doing the little things’, having better intangibles’, or ‘being more intense’ or (and this is what I think the evidence supports) it could be that he’s just more efficient in making more of his possessions by a) not missing shots and b) not turning the ball over. I had no way of telling what DubsFan meant since he did not actually mention efficiency.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

I know Jae

I didn’t make my post clear. I meant to say it may appear Monta has the better stats (looking at PPG, APG, RPG) but Roy is the better player because well, you already know how much Roy is better than Ellis (no need to explain). But the overall point I was trying to make is that Roy is the better player.

by DubsFan408 on Feb 10, 2010 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Seeing as how Ellis' stats are better than Roy's,

Do you think you could say Roy could lead the Dubs’ current roster to more success than they’ve had with Ellis this year? If you believe this to be true, I could just as easily hypothesize that Ellis could lead the Blazers to more success than Roy has.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I see us with around 19 wins with Roy this year…..not good but much better than this…

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 8:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I could just as easily hypothesize that Ellis could lead the Blazers to more success than Roy has.

But your hypothesis would be proven wrong pretty quickly by many stats.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 8:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Which stats are you referring to?

Haha, The magic stats that can prove something that has never happened?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions  

No, i meant at this juncture in the season, I’d see a Ellis-Roy Swap getting us 5-6 more wins this season at this point.
We probably aren’t going to win more than 24 games, so i see us as a 32-34 win team with Roy instead of Monta Ellis.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

so i see us as a 32-34 win team with Roy instead of Monta Ellis.

This is madness!! There’s no evidence to support this theory!!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Seeing as how Ellis’ stats are better than Roy’s

The point many of us are making is they aren’t. When you look at the things that actually determine which team wins, things like scoring efficiency and volume as opposed to just volume, when you look at their stats on a per minute basis (especially once you start rate adjusting), Roy’s stats are better, which is exactly why we say we’d be better with Roy. Roy averages more assists per minute, more rebounds per minute, scores a lot (not as much as Monta, but it’s close, but more importantly, scores much more efficiently, turns it over less, fouls less….yeah, Roy has the better stats.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

And we play the fastest pace in the league, while they play the slowest.
We get 13 more possessions per game than the blazers….

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 8:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes,

but he’s NOT playing with guys named Cartier Martin, Chris Hunter, Anthony Tolliver, Mikki Moore, n Coby Karl this season either!!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Don't you guys think

it’s reasonable to believe, based on 2007-2008, that Monta’s shot efficiency would go up relative to a decline in his volume of shots if the Warriors had Azubuike, Wright, Randolph, n a healthy Morrow n Biedrins this season, as opposed to the aforementioned guys above? Or that pending a situation where these guys should be healthy next season, that that will happen anyway!?

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Not really. I think his decline in efficiency is mostly a symptom of becoming the primary ballhandler, as opposed to a complementary piece next to Baron. Yes, I think with the right talent around Monta, his efficiency would go up, but no, I don’t think our team, even when healthy, has that piece. That piece has to be a good player who can be the focal point of the offense and get Monta the ball where he can be successful, like Baron used to.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions  

With Curry's imminent progress

manning the point guard position in future seasons, I think it stands to reason that Ellis’ life will be made easier, insomuch as it shouldn’t demand as much ballhandling from his as we’ve seen this season. Add the rest of his “Core 7” teammates in the mix, n it’s not that he becomes one of our “complementary” pieces (he is our best player after all), it’s just that he has as much help from as many capable players as he did in 2007-2008.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 12:06 PM PST up reply actions  

But Juwan Howard, Dante Cunningham, and Jeff Pendergraph!!!!
Its not like he hasn’t had to play with some scrubs this year either. He’s played with almost as injured a team as us.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Roy > Ellis

His stats as in PPG, APG, RPG, are better than Roy’s, but Ellis does a lot more to get those. He plays 42 minutes a game, gets countless turnovers, and takes a lot more shots. In my post above, I was trying to say that just because Ellis’ stats seem to be better than Roy’s doesn’t mean that he’s the better player. Roy is efficient, effective, and helps his team win unlike Monta.

I do think Roy can lead this team to a better record. Roy makes his teammates better and he’s just a very good player. He helped the Blazers improved from 21-61 to 32-50 when he was a rookie and he played about 57 games. The guy just helps his team win and that’s something the current Monta Ellis can’t do. Now, Krazee Max, you’re probably going to say something about Monta and Jordan and how if Monta is comparable to Jordan, he should be better than Roy. False. The only reason why you think Monta is a great player is because he’s exciting. Exciting players does not mean their great (in other cases like LeBron it’s different). Roy is not that exciting to watch, but he’s a player who gets the job done and helps his team win, which is why Roy is better than Ellis

I think Monta can actually be useful to the blazers. Miller is a pure PG so that means Monta can play off the ball just like the Baron Davis’ days. I don’t really know if he could “lead” the Blazers to more success, but I know that with a pure PG in Miller he can be more effective and probably more efficient.

by DubsFan408 on Feb 9, 2010 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

The only reason why you think Monta is a great player is because he’s exciting. Exciting players does not mean their great.

Ellis is exciting but that’s really not the main reason I think Monta’s such a great player. It’s definitely a bonus reason, though. I like Ellis because since he’s come ino the league, he’s consistently demonstrated a propensity for coming up big against the best teams. Whenever one of the elite teams have faced the Warriors in recent years, Ellis has shown an ability to perform under the spotlight.

This remarkable trait first came to my attention on February 20, 2008, when Ellis recorded 26 points to go with 9 assists (against the Celtics’ physical defense, which was very much keyed on him throughout the game) in a thrilling victory at Oracle, in front of the largest crowd ever to attend a basketball game in the state of California (at the time, anyway). Indeed, thanks in large part to Ellis’ exploits in the two teams’ most recent meeting (where Ellis notched 37 points on 15-26 shooting to go with the clutch inbounds catch and subsequent clutch free-throws in the end), Oracle Arena is still the only building the Celtics have yet to win in during the “Big 3’s” run.

Hell, Ellis performed brilliantly against the Lakers in 2007-2008, including stat line of 19 points on 8-17 FG, 7 rebs, 6 asts, n 3 stls and 31 pts on 12-22 FG, 7 rebs, 5 asts, n 1 stl (both Warrior wins). This season, he’s taken this trend to the next level. He’s recorded games of 42 pts on 16-25 FG n 35 pts on 16-31 FG, 6 rebs, 5 asts against the Spurs (both losses), 37 pts on 15-29 FG, 8 asts, n 4 stls (win) and 46 pts on 17-23 FG against the Mavs (loss), 34 pts on 13-28 FG, 8 asts, 6 stls, n 2 blks against Portland (win), 33 pts on 12-23 FG n 7 asts against the Magic (loss), 23 pts on 9-23 FG, 8 asts, n 3 stls against the Cavs (loss), 33 pts on 13-27 FG, 10 asts, 6 rebs, 3 stls, n 1 blk against the Suns (win), 39 pts on 12-28 FG, 10 asts, 6 rebs against the Nuggets (loss in OT), n 45 pts on 15-27 FG, 5 rebs n 5 stls against the then fourth-ranked defense n top-ranked shot-blocking Pacers (in typical rim-attacking Ellis fashion) (win).

No doubt Ellis was uniformly sensational in all these games, but the point I’m making is that he performed brilliantly for his team when they needed him too. In other words, Ellis responded to the team’s needs by leading them in what was needed, usually in points but quite often in assists n steals as well. I think Ellis doesn’t get enough credit around here for coming up as big as he does under pressure (I must admit, I’m still waiting for him to break out against the Lakers’ defense this season. Hopefully next Tuesday will be his big night).

Actually, since you mentioned MJ, Jordan was very much known for the same thing throughout his Bulls’ career, when you talk about his reputation for consistently coming up with big-time performances against the Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, Hawks, Bucks, Blazers, Sonics, Jazz, n Lakers in winning/losing efforts throughout the 80’s. Of coarse, as everyone knows, MJ used to come up even bigger against the same teams in the Playoffs. Monta hasn’t really had much opportunity to shine in the Playoffs, but I’m confident that there’s a real Killer-Instinct in him when he eventually gets his chance to with this team. :D

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 1:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Can any poster possibly post so many words without any significance to them?

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

He’s just a rambling, non sequitur, tangent going off again and again on several different posts.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Could you just say that instead of

Ellis is exciting but that’s really not the main reason I think Monta’s such a great player. It’s definitely a bonus reason, though. I like Ellis because since he’s come ino the league, he’s consistently demonstrated a propensity for coming up big against the best teams. Whenever one of the elite teams have faced the Warriors in recent years, Ellis has shown an ability to perform under the spotlight.

This remarkable trait first came to my attention on February 20, 2008, when Ellis recorded 26 points to go with 9 assists (against the Celtics’ physical defense, which was very much keyed on him throughout the game) in a thrilling victory at Oracle, in front of the largest crowd ever to attend a basketball game in the state of California (at the time, anyway). Indeed, thanks in large part to Ellis’ exploits in the two teams’ most recent meeting (where Ellis notched 37 points on 15-26 shooting to go with the clutch inbounds catch and subsequent clutch free-throws in the end), Oracle Arena is still the only building the Celtics have yet to win in during the "Big 3’s" run.

Hell, Ellis performed brilliantly against the Lakers in 2007-2008, including stat line of 19 points on 8-17 FG, 7 rebs, 6 asts, n 3 stls and 31 pts on 12-22 FG, 7 rebs, 5 asts, n 1 stl (both Warrior wins). This season, he’s taken this trend to the next level. He’s recorded games of 42 pts on 16-25 FG n 35 pts on 16-31 FG, 6 rebs, 5 asts against the Spurs (both losses), 37 pts on 15-29 FG, 8 asts, n 4 stls (win) and 46 pts on 17-23 FG against the Mavs (loss), 34 pts on 13-28 FG, 8 asts, 6 stls, n 2 blks against Portland (win), 33 pts on 12-23 FG n 7 asts against the Magic (loss), 23 pts on 9-23 FG, 8 asts, n 3 stls against the Cavs (loss), 33 pts on 13-27 FG, 10 asts, 6 rebs, 3 stls, n 1 blk against the Suns (win), 39 pts on 12-28 FG, 10 asts, 6 rebs against the Nuggets (loss in OT), n 45 pts on 15-27 FG, 5 rebs n 5 stls against the then fourth-ranked defense n top-ranked shot-blocking Pacers (in typical rim-attacking Ellis fashion) (win).

No doubt Ellis was uniformly sensational in all these games, but the point I’m making is that he performed brilliantly for his team when they needed him too. In other words, Ellis responded to the team’s needs by leading them in what was needed, usually in points but quite often in assists n steals as well. I think Ellis doesn’t get enough credit around here for coming up as big as he does under pressure (I must admit, I’m still waiting for him to break out against the Lakers’ defense this season. Hopefully next Tuesday will be his big night).

Actually, since you mentioned MJ, Jordan was very much known for the same thing throughout his Bulls’ career, when you talk about his reputation for consistently coming up with big-time performances against the Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, Hawks, Bucks, Blazers, Sonics, Jazz, n Lakers in winning/losing efforts throughout the 80’s. Of coarse, as everyone knows, MJ used to come up even bigger against the same teams in the Playoffs. Monta hasn’t really had much opportunity to shine in the Playoffs, but I’m confident that there’s a real Killer-Instinct in him when he eventually gets his chance to with this team. :D

See how much space i just used up!!!!! i must be right!!!!!

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

No, sorry.

If you don’t like my posts, don’t read them. That way, you’re not disappointed, and I’m not annoyed when you complain.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 7:36 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Krazee, you’d be wise to avoid that sort of argument. The powers that be try to keep the quality of the posts here high. What that mean may or may not be clear to you, but it is most certainly not a license for you to write whatever you feel and write it off with a “if you don’t like it” don’t read it.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 8:21 PM PST up reply actions  

My posts

are completely relevant to the subject at hand insomuch as they often respond to direct quotes I cite from those who I’m responding to. I dunno if you’re trying to tell me you’re one of the powers that be or if you’re trying to send me some sort of personal message or warning, but I resent the implication that my posts are of lower or worser quality than anyone else.

Frankly, I think it’s rude and disparaging. Makes me feel like a guy can’t express his feelings about sports on a sports blog. And that’s clearly something I enjoy doing here. I mean come on, man.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 9:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Frankly, I think it’s rude and disparaging. Makes me feel like a guy can’t express his feelings about sports on a sports blog.

Sorry, if i made you feel that way. I’m trying to challenge you to write higher quality, more understandable posts. I’m not going after your feelings. There is a difference.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not going after your opinion, but you don’t think you can summarize points like " Monta is an exciting and good player" into a paragraph or two at most?
It just is frustrating to look at rambled, random thoughts taking up half my computer screen.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:19 PM PST up reply actions  

It just is frustrating to look at rambled, random thoughts taking up half my computer screen.

This is exactly what I’m talking about. Here you’re criticizing my writing as incoherent and jumbled, like the quality of my writing composition is sub-par or below the standard here. I understand if maybe my grammar was terrible, my ideas weren’t well articulated and my thoughts were dissonant, but I take great care in assembling and reviewing my material before I post, and I can plainly judge fairly for myself that my writing is not as weak or incompetent as you say.

Then, when Jae comes on and says something to the effect of “You’d better bite your toungue, Max”, that only compounds what I’m talking about. This kind of thing is offensive to me, insomuch as it shows there’s an agenda against me, personally. I feel like I gotta watch my back when I post, now. Just because my posts might be more passionate than most. I think that stinks.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 9:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Well for the most part…. it is incoherent and rambled.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions  

That's flat-out false.

My posts are in essay format, insomuch as they have an introduction which presents my idea, a body of supporting evidence which elaborates, and a conclusion which punctuates my point. I write them them the same exact way I do my College papers- of which I’ve written tons over the years. I dunno any other way to write, but if you can’t reconcile your reading comprehension skills with my writing comprehension skills, then maybe my posts aren’t the problem, here.

by Krazee max on Feb 11, 2010 9:00 AM PST up reply actions  

I enjoyed some of those games. I really like Monta but he has flaws.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

YOu could hypothesize that, but you don't have much evidence for it.

Whereas Brandon has produced 4.5 more wins this year, according to WP, than Monta has.

Ellis’s stats AREN’T better than Roy’s, as Jae explained in the post above.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:37 PM PST up reply actions  

But

what evidence of Brandon Roy leading our current Warriors’ roster to more wins than Ellis has is there really? The ones that you’ve derived from his stats n superior efficiency on a better Blazers team??

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes.

Because, as has been stated multiple times on this thread, WP doesn’t change much when a player changes teams.

You are making a supposition – that a player’s level of production changes with his teammates – that is not well supported by reality.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I hope Curry can bulk up this offseason a little bit

I know it would take a while, but if he can get stronger and be able to post up and do the things that Baron could do strength wise, the Warriors backcourt could really benefit.

by duballers23 on Feb 9, 2010 3:27 PM PST reply actions  

Can you think of a player who became significantly more productive as a result of “bulking up”? The amount of “bulk” that it would take Curry gaining to be able to do what Baron did is not going to be easy.

Baron was a superb athlete. Let’s not forget that in addition to the bulky strength, he was a dunk competition competitor early in his career because he could also get off the ground. Curry isn’t that sort of athlete. Bulking up is likely to rob him of speed, something he doesn’t have a tremendous amount to spare.

And again, what player who had problems being effective because of a lack of “bulk” became effective by gaining “bulk”? Who?

(really, I’ve asked the question over and over again and no one has ever given a good answer)

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

A couple of examples that come to mind for me would be Kidd and Jordan. Both were very good athletes in their primes (Jordan exceptionally so), but as they aged and slowed down, they got stronger and it was effective and helped them offset their loss of explosiveness. I agree with your overall point – Curry would be slow as heck if he bulked up to Baron’s size – Baron, at one point, was the most athletic PG in the league (similar to a Westbrook/Rose when he was younger and before injuries), Curry simply wouldn’t be able to replicate that.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Both Jordan and Kidd were effective players who remained effective, but they didn’t have problems being effective and suddenly became so by adding bulk. I tend to think that is rather different than the calls for a skinny kid who is somehow limited in his effectiveness “bulking up” and becoming effective as a result.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I can agree with that, and I’ll add that by the time they started really bulking up and improving their strength, they were on the slower end of the spectrum to begin with, so any lost quickness/explosiveness didn’t really matter as much since they didn’t really have much to help them with anyways, whereas the extra strength helped them utilize their basketball skills better…

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Pau Gasol? Kevin Garnett?
Thats about it. I can’t think of too many more.
Those two were below average rebounders early in their careers and as they bulked up they became better rebounders.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Shawn Kemp?

"Hold it. The Schwarzenegger Library?" - John Spartan after hearing Arnold became President, from Demolition Man

by 61st Amendment on Feb 9, 2010 6:51 PM PST up reply actions  

But its pretty odd to see guys go from bad rebounders to great rebounders like those two did.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

What a Bunch of Crap! Ellis is near All-Star Level

Does he take a lot of shots? Yes, because no one else is able to create their own shot at any time (definition of a special player).

Are Monte’s stats only good because of the style of play? It helps but he has played this style in passed so there has to be more there.

Are his turnovers and assist imperfect? Yes, because when he passes to guys like Martin and Tolliver – they DON’T MAKE SHOTS. He is better off trying to take over the game himself then passing to these terrible shooters.

By the way, our line up is not just bad, IT IS HORRIBLE. Coby Karl, Tolliver, Hunter, Radman – THESE GUYS ARE TERRIBLE BUT WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY THEM.

If Monte even had Randolph or Kaz or Morrow for the whole season with Maggs and Beans/Turi – Coach would already have the record.

by terryteagle on Feb 9, 2010 3:27 PM PST reply actions  

Yes, because no one else is able to create their own shot at any time (definition of a special player).

History has shown that when high-volume, low-efficiency scorers leave their teams, the team doesn’t usually struggle to get shots.

Nobody doubts Monta’s creative ability with the ball … the problem is what he creates. He creates too many misses for himself, and not enough open looks for his teammates.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

His Efficiency is An Issue This Year

Because of his teammates – He was giving it to Curry and Morrow last night and even Beans when he is open and not afraid to get fouled and take foul shotes. I admit he is missing a fair number of shots but I do not see a lot of bad misses where teammates are open and he is forcing it.

by terryteagle on Feb 9, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Are Monte’s stats only good because of the style of play?

Who is this “Monte” guy? I don’t see a single Monte on our team.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Give Monte teammates similar to Roy/Paul/Kobe and He would be an Allstar!

Monte? Who? Who is this Monte guy? Is he any good? I’ve never heard of him.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I think that we overrate him sometimes because he is our best player

but I actually think that he is really underrated league wide. Nobody cares to mention Monta league when it comes to rising stars because nobody else besides us really pay attention the the Warriors. Stern obviously doesn’t recognize Monta’s hard work this season. Hollinger is just a hater who doesn’t like the Warriors or Nelson because of their style of play. Monta feels like he has to carry everyone on his back every single game, and that sometimes leads to mistakes (turnovers and bad shots), but any star player with a team as beat up as ours would do the same. Put another star type player on this team, and Monta can go back to not worrying about carrying them on his back and just play his game.

by duballers23 on Feb 9, 2010 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

Exactly - This Team is Terrible!!!

Especially now that Maggs is out, our options are basically Curry and Morrow for real scoring punch. Curry is improving but he is a not a wing, which would work better for Monta.

by terryteagle on Feb 9, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Eh, Hollinger is kind of a Warriors hater. If you ever read his chats or anything he rarely has anything to say about them and when he does it tends to be a shot at what a terrible franchise we are. I mean….the things he says are mostly true, but still, he could just talk about us in a normal way like he does most other teams….

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I think 26 ppg on 46% FG is pretty good for a guard.

It would be, if a significant # of those shots were from behind the arc, but that’s pretty close to his 2pt FG%.

Objectively, his scoring efficiency (taking into consideration his ability to get to the line, shoot FTs and 3pt shots) is below average. This isn’t an opinion. It isn’t subject to debate. It’s an empirical fact. It is below average for a guard. It is below average for any position.

His efficiency has dropped since teams game plan to stop Monta Ellis. The fact that he’s scoring despite the extra attention is a good sign in his 1st full year back.

Scoring by hoisting more shots at an inefficient rate (and again, that he’s not even average efficiency is not a debatable point — it’s fact) doesn’t tend to help teams win. If he was able to score with some level of efficiency despite the attention it would be a good sign. That his solution to the attention is to continue to hoist shots? Not a good sign.

Monta Ellis right now is going through what Kobe sans SHAQ before Pau did. Talented scorer forced to do way too much.

Kobe was a much more efficient scorer without Shaq or Pau than Monta is. In fact, Kobe’s first year sans Shaq, his TS% was higher than it had ever been with Shaq. Kobe’s performance didn’t suffer like Monta’s has. It didn’t seem to suffer at all.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

I've read all the stats (TimK, Hollinger, etc)...

- The the efficiency stats don’t take into account the complete lack of help Ellis has. Of course his efficiency will go down if he’s asked to play every single minute, carry the offense, and guard players bigger than he is. Put him on a talented team and he TS% is 58%.

- Thanks for the stats on Kobe. The numbers just go to show you great of a player Kobe is and like you said how he still succeeded on crappy teams. Monta Ellis will NEVER be Kobe Bryant but what I was implying in that comparison was not numerical based, but more perception based.

Back then every bashed Kobe for being a ball hog and playing like crap when he was forced to shoulder the load. How he needed to make his teammates better, etc. However, once he got Pau, Odom, Bynum, etc… the media’s portrayal of Kobe flipped. Same thing is happening to Monta. He was the golden boy before with better teammates, but now on a losing team he suddenly sucks.

- Monta is NOT going to be a franchise savior, but his past play and current performance indicate to me that he can be the primary perimeter option on a winning team. Give him Amare and they can get to playoffs, give him a HOF big man and he can compete for a title.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

This sounds like the Allen Iverson defenders.

Almost everything you see can show up in the stats. In fact, it’s likely to be better. It’s pretty difficult to remember all of Monta’s shots. When he goes 9 for 22, you’re more likely to remember the makes than the misses.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2010 5:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Close...

I understand Monta’s warts.

However there is a big difference between Iverson and Monta. In the 48 win season, Monta Ellis PROVED he has the ability to be a highly efficient scoring machine on a winning team even without dominating the ball.

So despite the drop in efficiency this year, I’m inclined to believe that when (probably not with GS) Ellis does get to play next to some talented players he’ll evolve his game back into being a highly efficient scoring machine. With more talent around him, he can spend a little less energy on offense and put that into his new found attention to defense.

He’s not as good as Kobe is/was because it’s evident by the stats that he needs a good team around him to succeed, but he’s a different player than Iverson because he doesn’t need to be the main man in order for him and the team to be effective.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Kobe's never succeeded without a good team around him...

unless you consider a missed 2005 playoff run and two consecutive playoff series losses to the defensively-challenged Suns in 2006 and 2007 the mark of a great player.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Yah but as Jae pointed out....

Kobe’s efficiency didn’t drop like Monta’s did when he played with scrubs.

Monta is a very good player but he’s no Kobe.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure, but much like Monta this year,

he wasn’t contributing to winning basketball either. Which brings me to the point I’ve mentioned above. How exactly doesn one contribute to winning on a losing team?

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

You're making the PART = WHOLE

Put it this way.

Do you think the Warriors would at any given have more or less wins if they played without Monta Ellis and say CJ Watson instead?

The answer to that question will tell you how much you value Monta as an INDIVIDUAL player.

However if you’re basing “losing” in regard to overall record then you have to look at the WHOLE team instead of just one player. In addition to Monta there are still 4 other players on the court and a head coach who impacts the teams style of play. So overall the losing or winning of a team game does not come down solely to Monta Ellis but equally to the 4 other players on the court.

IMO, without Monta the Warriors would be fighting with the Nets for fewest wins in the league. With Monta they are a lottery bound team.

So yes you can contribute to winning despite having a “losing” record.

Again, ask yourself…. would the Warriors win more or less games without Monta? Would those Laker teams have even sniffed playoffs sans Kobe?

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 6:03 PM PST up reply actions  

According to WP48 - which is not the be-all, end-all, but is useful for this sort of analysis:

The Warriors would win MORE games this year if they apportioned Ellis’ minutes out to Curry, Morrow, Watson, and Maggette.

If you replaced all of Ellis minutes with CJ Watson’s minutes, assuming players maintained their current production, the team would have won 2-3 more games at this point in the season.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 9, 2010 11:41 PM PST up reply actions  

The same stat says Troy Murphy has produced more wins than Granger.

You don’t actually believe this team is actually 2-3 games better with CJ Watson instead of Monta do you?

I don’t think the assumption that all other players would remain equal. With Monta out, Maggette and co. has to take a ridiculous number of shots, making their production lower. I don’t think WP48 isolates the impact of a player as much as you give it credit for.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 12:40 AM PST up reply actions  

And yet, historically, when a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer leaves...

You don’t see his teammates productive drop off a cliff, and you don’t see the team struggle to get shots.

I think you’re really over-rating the impact this has on other players.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Again an instance where you need to put things into context....

I love stats just as much as anyone but again stats like WP, EWA, etc… just don’t tell the complete story.

You have to give credit for someone actually carrying the load versus someone who generally rides the pine.

What the WP suggests to me is NOT that the Warriors would be better off if they replaced Ellis with Watson, but that the Warriors would be better off if they gave Watson more PT to give Ellis a breather.

That’s the thing Nellie needs to do is give Ellis some time off the floor, so he can perform at an efficient level.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 10, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions  

You have to give credit for someone actually carrying the load versus someone who generally rides the pine.

Well, if indeed you think that Ellis is struggling because he’s playing too much, then that’s a reason to think that he’s better than his stats. And that may well be a valid reason.

That’s the thing Nellie needs to do is give Ellis some time off the floor, so he can perform at an efficient level.

Well, If you changed this so that “so we can see if Ellis can perform at an efficient level” then I’d agree with you.

But it’s not an obviously safe assumption to say that Ellis will get his efficiency back if he plays fewer minutes. As others have pointed out, part of the problem is that he’s doing too much ballhandling, and he’s not a great decision maker. That part of his game isn’t going to improve with playing less.

I suspect that Ellis will improve his efficiency some if he plays fewer minutes, but so long as he’s being used incorrectly, he won’t be a highly efficient player. My fear, however, is that Ellis is developing bad habits that may prove hard to unlearn. Guys do get sucked in to being the hero, their egos get involved, and they try to take over when they shouldn’t. There’s a real danger of this happening with Ellis, even if we do get a good PG next to him.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Great points and I can see where you’re coming from.

I was going to type more but this little thread here got the juices flowing and I have an idea for my next article. Thanks!

Be on the look out for that in the coming weeks.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 10, 2010 3:21 PM PST up reply actions  

So CJ Watson

could lead the Warriors to more wins than Monta Ellis has? This is officially hateful!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree with FLAx

that if Ellis was given more breathing room, it would be best for everyone.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:31 PM PST up reply actions  

haha i’m being mean. it was pretty funny.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure, but much like Monta this year, he [Kobe] wasn’t contributing to winning basketball either.

Are you really equating Kobe’s Shaqless years and how he “didn’t contribute to winning” to the way that Monta isn’t contributing to winning now? The Lakers won 34 games (Kobe played in 66 games that year FWIW) at their low point before Gasol arrived. They also had 42 and 45 win seasons in there. They were more or less a .500 team with Kobe “not contributing to wins” as you’re suggesting.

The Warriors are on pace to win 21 games this year. A sub 20 win season is a real possibility and it would take a minor miracle to hit 30 wins. That’s a whole lot different in terms of “losing team” to anything Kobe ever experienced.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:20 PM PST up reply actions  

So, by what you're saying,

winning basketball, insofar as Kobe’s post-Shaq/pre-Gasol campaign is concerned isn’t the most important criterion for measuring a player’s greatness or value, insomuch as Kobe missed the playoffs with 34 games at his low point in the period and led his team to two straight first round playoff exits as an 8-seed after.

If you’re going to overlook significant team success as a criterion for a player’s value (which you’ve kind of done by praising Kobe for his production from 2005-2007), then should it really matter that Monta’s team is really on pace for 21-30 games? Because Kobe won a few more games (in 2005)? If we are disregarding team success, (and you kind of have to with those Kobe-led Lakers teams anyway), then I don’t see how Kobe-without-help could be considered any better than Monta-without-help, since the Dubs, like Kobe’s Lakers, haven’t seen many wins this season either. You mentioned the Warriors’ possibility for winning 21-30 games (best case scenario) as an example of Monta’s Warriors being worse than Bryant’s lowest Lakers, but then, if Monta’s playing on a banged-up/borderline D-League team, chouldn’t that reasonably be taken to account for the inherent drop-off in wins from 34 (worst case Lakers) to 21 (worst case Warriors)?

If we can agree that Monta’s team is playing with worse personnel than any of those three Kobe Lakers were, then I think we can also agree that plugging Kobe in Monta’s place on the Warriors this season probably would result in the same record, give or take a few wins or losses, depending on how destiny ruled those close games the Warriors have dropped this season and how Kobe responded in the late-game situations relative to how Monta has.

by Krazee max on Feb 9, 2010 6:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t see how Kobe-without-help could be considered any better than Monta-without-help,

Well start with high point games of 81 points for Kobe and 46 for Montay, then move to allstar appearances, salary, and player awards?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

… all “measures” that mean very little in terms of the two players’ contributions to winning basketball games.

Of course, in the measures that do mean something — shooting efficiency, rebounding rate, adj. plus-minus, wins produced, etc. — Kobe still comes out on top, so clearly NBA writers, fans, coaches, and owners aren’t always wrong.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 9, 2010 11:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Well start with high point games of 81 points for Kobe and 46 for Montay, then move to allstar appearances, salary, and player awards?

Who’s to say Monta won’t score 81 in his remaining 10-12 years, or that he won’t make any all-star appearances, get max contracts, or continue to distinguish himself with individual accolades and awards (e.g. MVP, All-NBA, All-Star MVP, or champ)? He has a ways to go and he’s getting better!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL. STOP right now man. This is really hard to see on GSOM. Monta Ellis is so unlikely to score 81 points in a game, win MVP, lead us to titles, and etc.
Just because we can’t be 100% sure, doesn’t mean we can’t logically predict based on the past and future.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m big fan of predictions based on the future…

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 5:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Woah. I just realized how bad that was.
Just because we can’t be 100% sure, doesn’t mean we can’t logically predict the future based on the past and the future..

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Why do you say that?

Monta’s gotten better every season since he came in the league.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

He’s not better this season than he was in 2007/08. (And he certainly wasn’t better in 08/09 than he was in 07/08).

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmm. Maybe there’s now an “extreme prejudice” policy with regard to your thoughts on Monta Ellis? Nothing personal, but if so it’s about time.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 5:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Your post was not deleted. I can see deleted posts and you did not have a response deleted.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Let's try this again.

Certainly, 08/09 was the lost season, but I disagree that Ellis hasn’t improved this season because of his increased turnovers and declined scoring efficiency.

On the contrary, I think when you consider the context under which these two detriments have taken place (e.g. 2nd in the league in minutes per, having to go for 48 minutes 10x, not having the support of his injured teammates, etc.), and the fact that, unlike in 07/08, Ellis doesn’t have Baron, Harrington, Pietrus, Barnes, n (most recently) Jax, Ellis is really in a different situation than he was 2 years ago.

Having said that, considering how well Ellis has responded to the Warriors’ newfound situation- where he’s been made the leader n focal point of the team- I think it’s a testimony to his greatness as a player that he’s capable of answering the challenge by taking his game to the next level as needed.

In order words, this is really the first season that opposing teams have completely zoned in on Ellis when scouting the Warriors for games, and yet, despite the added attention drawn on defense, Ellis has raised his scoring a whopping six points from where it was in his previous highest scoring campaign (07/08), when he averaged 20 ppg.

So I don’t think it’s so much that Ellis is having an off year as it is that he’s just in a much less enviable position now than he was in 07/08. One that’s made him arguably, the hardest working star of the 09/10 season… Monta works his butt off.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 6:01 PM PST up reply actions  

It's really weird, I had just been writing my response,

n it suddenly when invisible as I was getting ready to post it… very strange. Fortunately, I just reiterated my basic idea above. Hope it’s good.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

it suddenly when invisible as I was getting ready to post it…

Did you try to edit it in the already previewed box? That will take it away for some reason. Edit in the lower box then press preview and if you see something you want to change go back to the lower box to change it , then hit preview again. I lose them occasionally when I’m not focused on the task.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 6:14 PM PST up reply actions  

You are attempting to explain why Monta is not playing as effectively now as he was 2 years ago. These reasons may be true, but he is not playing better than he did two years ago.

This may be the first season teams have keyed on Monta. Unfortunately, the results aren’t very good. The results suggest that with him shouldering more of the load, he does not play as well. He hasn’t answered the challenge (or the answer is “I’m not going to be as productive when challenged more because I’m not going to be able to be as efficient and I’ll turn the ball over too much”).

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 6:06 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, let's say

the 07/08 team was completely intact today. Baron was still here n not Curry, Harrington was still here, not Maggs, Barnes was here, not Morrow, Jax is in, etc. No doubt Monta wouldn’t have to average 26 ppg on that particular roster this season (pending everyone is healthy) because that team had unique fire power.

If Monta was shooting 46% from the field (as he is this season) on that team, then I’d say his 7-point dip in FG% (from 53%) was a sign that Monta was regressing. I don’t think he got to the FT line as much as he does this season back then, but it looks like his FT% was better (around 77%) that year than it is now (around 74%). It also looks like by this season’s end, he’ll have shattered his total mark for attempts in 07/08 by a decent margin. So it appears his FT%, as with his FG%, has dipped (if even slightly) as a result of the extra heavy workload. I’d have to imagine this could be a result of exhaustion more than anything else from having to do so much.

As with free-throws, Monta’s taking (and making) many more 3-pointers this year than he did in 07/08 (no doubt a result of the increased responsibilities that accompany the explanations I mentioned above for his dip in efficiency). So it stands to reason, that if Monta’s playing with a (healthy) 07/08 roster, Monta probably wouldn’t see as much of a dip as he has in the areas of FT% (3%) or as much of an improvement in his 3-PT% (from around 23% to around 33%)because it’s reasonable to say both these areas have more or less been adjusted to reflect the situation facing his team this year.

For example, Monta has almost made as many 3-Pointers (46) as he attempted in all of 07/08 (52) with half a season left to play. He’s already taken more than triple as many 3’s (140) as he’s made!

So basically what I’m trying to say, is that if Monta was playing alongside the 07/08 team, n his percentages didn’t have to adjust to the different team situation of the club today, then yes, I would say Monta was having an off-year, in so much as his FG%, FT%, n his 3PT% (although 10% better, still a lot of bricks) have left something more to be desired.

I would even go so far as to say that if Monta was putting up these kinds of numbers while averaging as many ppg as he is now (if not more), that Monta would be hurting his 09/10 incarnation of the 07/08 team (which no doubt wouldn’t need him to force the issue as much as he has this year).

Having said that, this is not only a completely different team, with Ellis being one of only four carry-overs (with Beans, Buike, n Wright also being from the 07/08 team, two of which have been M.I.A), n practically everybody injured or M.I.A. at some point or another throughout the season- further magnifying the responsibilties thrust on Ellis’ shoulders- but Ellis has actually stepped his game up by raising not only his ppg by (exactly) 6 ppg, but also his assists per (from 3.9 to 5.4). and his steals (from 1.5 to 2.2).

Hence, in light of the fact that it’s a different season for Ellis (his first full one since a major injury/surgery) with a different team, I’m proposing that Ellis has actually improved from 07/08 to 09/10, n that pending a better health situation in 10/11, he’ll continue to improve so that we can hopefully see more of a harmony from his increased volumes of this season (e.g. bigger number of ppg n apg or spg) n his higher percentages of the 07/08 season (e.g. FG%, FT%, etc.).

In other words, I look for Ellis to average 29 ppg next season on 52% FG%, 82% FT%, n 36% 3PT%. You dig?

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 7:10 PM PST up reply actions  

In other words, I look for Ellis to average 29 ppg next season on 52% FG%, 82% FT%, n 36% 3PT%. You dig?

Thats better than Lebron James, so i have doubts.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 7:19 PM PST up reply actions  

But if u think about it,

it’s COMPLETELY possible! We’ve seen him score efficiently with a healthy offensive-powered team, n seem him score TONS with a banged up/D-League team (albeit less efficiently). Who says he can’t do BOTH next season with THIS team healthy!?

I believe it’s precisely because of THIS possibility that Ellis’ ceiling is so darn high!!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 7:22 PM PST up reply actions  

46% to 52% is bigger than… just about any 1-year jumps by players at his age.
He can’t get that much better at 3s yet either.
He hasn’t done that well at FTs yet.
If his D-leaguers are replaced with actual scorers, his points will likely decrease a bit.
Ellis’ ceiling < current Lebron

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I think his shot attempts would decrease

while his FG%, FT%, n 3-PT (if slightly) would go up, playing 36 per.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 7:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t think he got to the FT line as much as he does this season back then,

Per minute played, he didn’t, but it’s not a huge different (4.9/36 in 0708 vs 5.5/36 this year). But given that the ball is in his hands much more often and given that he’s hoisting a 3rd again as many shots per minute, he’s not as effective at getting to the line as he was. 5 extra shots per 36 should translate into much more than a half a FT attempt.

“N” that your juvenile ability to use the letters “a” and “d” where appropriate and your convoluted reasoning that by playing worse he’s actually improved, the rest of your post deserves no response. The argument was wholly without merit.

by jae on Feb 10, 2010 7:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I think he has the same skills, maybe is slightly better at 3s. But he is applying them the wrong way. He’s shooting more than he needs too, especially those 3s. Also, he should have more assists than he currently does. He’s the primary ball handler, and has about as much as he did with that team. He’s capable of getting more, but has possibly taken the ‘star role’ to heart a bit too much.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 7:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, Monta can become so much better if he stops taking long range 2’s….
I heard he shoots those at 38%, so why not eliminate that as a huge part of his arsenal, and turn all of those attempts into 3’s.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 7:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Those are the worst shots in basketball.

I think his figuring that out has led to him taking so many more 3’s this season.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, he is shooting more 3’s which is good, but he’s not cutting down on the long range two’s.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Who’s to say Monta won’t score 81 in his remaining 10-12 years, or that he won’t make any all-star appearances, get max contracts, or continue to distinguish himself with individual accolades and awards

 No one is saying Montay can’t, but doing it and the possibility of doing it are two different things. Kobe has done it already so give him his due credit?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 10, 2010 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm just saying

Kobe has been in the league 14 years while Monta has been in it five. That’s a difference of nine years. Kobe’s most likely either reaching his peak now or has already passed his ceiling mark. Whereas with Monta, his best days are still ahead of him and his ceiling unknown. I give Kobe credit, he’s done some big things. Monta can do bigger, though.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 10:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta likely will get better, but i doubt its dramatic.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 10:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobe’s most likely either reaching his peak now or has already passed his ceiling mark. Whereas with Monta, his best days are still ahead of him and his ceiling unknown.

 Yep, Kobe is on the downhill and Montay is still rising but he’s gonna need the right situation to be his best. He needs a big defensive minded point guard so he can concentrate on scoring instead of ball handling and so he can guard a smaller player to save his energy for the offensive part of the game. Trying to do it all is a recipe for injury or mediocre results. Boom Dizzle in his prime was a lot easier for Montay to play along with than StefanCurr-bury because Boom could take the harder defensive assignment and let Montay concentrate on scoring efficiently.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 11, 2010 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

his past play and current performance indicate to me that he can be the primary perimeter option on a winning team

I do see what you’re saying, and I agree that Monta’s past where he has shown he can be efficient tell us something different about him than guys who are career inefficient scorers, but this point is where I disagree. It seems to me that one of the biggest reasons for Monta’s drop is the role he’s in – he just isn’t ready to be the teams primary ballhandler. Put him next to someone else that can be the focal point of the offense, and he’s a complementary piece off the ball, an efficient scorer that still scores at a good volume without dominating the ball (and who rarely turns it over because of this), but his struggles this year are showing he can’t be an effective primary ballhandler.

With a guy like Amare – he’s a lot like Maggette, he really doesn’t do much to get his teammates involved, he’s a straight up, 1 on 1, efficient scorer on his own, but he won’t be the focal point of a team offense….and Monta isn’t successful with Corey out there, and I don’t think he’ll be successful with Amare out there. He needs someone else to be the primary ballhandler.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I can go with that...

However, how many times have you seen Mikki Moore, Turiaf, and Biedrins completely botch a Monta pick and roll this year?

Give him Amare and those pick n rolls are dunks and suddenly Monta is a better primary ball handler. Monta seems to me like an above average PnR player to me, he’s just been stuck with bigs who can’t finish.

Ideally, you have Curry run the half court set and when all else fails if you have someone like Amare you call a Monta/Amare pick n roll – where you have to respect BOTH players jump shot and finishing ability.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Jae - is there a stat out there that can breakdown/infer Pick n Rolls?

Just wondering if my observations jive with objective measures.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

is there a stat out there that can breakdown/infer Pick n Rolls?

Check out John Stockton’s stats and see what they tell you?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 9, 2010 9:26 PM PST up reply actions  

how many times have you seen Mikki Moore, Turiaf, and Biedrins

Moore more times than I want to think about, god he was awful, Turiaf isn’t great on the PnR, either, but Biedrins shouldn’t be in this conversation. Biedrins is a fantastic PnR big. I’m not saying I don’t think there’s some negative effect from the lack of talent we’ve had around Monta this year, I just think Montas role in the offense is the much bigger factor.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Biedrins of years past BUT....

This years version of Biedrins is horrible.

Hopefully next year he can come back to the Goose we all know and love.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 9, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure Biedrins is much worse than in the past. He’s not involved in many plays, but he still finishes well, every time I watch he still catches well – it’s mostly a product of limited minutes and not being involved in the offense much (though to be fair, that means Monta isn’t getting many chances to run PnR with him)…

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 7:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Biedrins of years past

I’d call last year the beginning of the Hands of Stone period. Not sure why that happened, but he has seemingly morphed overnight from a sure handed big to a butterfingers.

by GameSix on Feb 10, 2010 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Last year he suddenly lost his hands of glue. He’s no where near Dampier/Foyle territory but his hands have definitely slipped from A+ to B, IMO.

In regards to his finishing ability when I watch him he just doesn’t seem as confident as years past (although the past couple of games he’s looking better), but the stats show he’s scoring at 61% so what do I know.

I just know Nellie needs to play Biedrins more.

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by FLAxwless on Feb 10, 2010 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow ...Stop traffic.

Beidrins is NOT a “fantastic PnR big”. Not even average.

If he was, and don’t start blaming Nellie, why then don’t we run a PnR for Bedrins more than 2-3 times a game? He’s good at the initial Pick, but beyond that he’s not a great finisher.

IMO when ever Beidrins Scores the ball it’s usually results in suprise to the opponets (and me). One of these “oh, man. I didn’t think he was going to do that”.

What I see usually is Beidrins not being respected by the defense and only in those moments is he able to finish a Pnp. Your stats say he’s offiecent. My brain tells me his opponets don’t respect him or “keep him honest”.

I’m not a stat guy like some here but i’ve heard it said before and i’ll say it again, “Stats are like a bikini, they show you a lot…but not everything”

Your stats say Monta shoots at 46% and Beidrins about 50% but my brain tells me that in the 4qter when the game is on the line that Monta has a 100% better chance at hitting a much needed buck than Goose. I don’t see goose even in the game and you can’t give him the ball cause they’ll foul him. Nellie uses him as effeicently as he can but it doesn’t mean he’s a Fantastic at the PnR>>….you can’t be without the ability to also PnPop. See Malone, duncan, and Amare.

by Balance on Feb 10, 2010 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

but beyond that he’s not a great finisher.

You do realize if Biedrins had enough shots to qualify for career records, he would have the highest FG% in NBA history, right? He’s not a great finisher, yet he has a higher FG% than every single qualified player (using BB-Ref’s qualifications) that’s ever played the game. How does that even begin to make sense?

My brain tells me his opponets don’t respect him or "keep him honest".

One of those. I see. Let’s spell this out clearly for you. The most basic fundamental purpose of statistics is simply to count what happens. All we’re doing is recording what we’re seeing – we see how many shots Biedrins takes, we see how many he misses. When you say something like:

Your stats say Monta shoots at 46% and Beidrins about 50% but my brain tells me that in the 4qter when the game is on the line that Monta has a 100% better chance at hitting a much needed buck than Goose

you’re clearly not understanding that. We actually have records of what these players do, and we can look back and see which ones perform at the level you think they do and don’t. That’s what the stats are – just a record of what happens, so when you say things like this, basically you’re ignoring documented history and making up a false reality. In essence, it’s exactly like denying the Holocaust happened. Not that it’s offensive like that, but it’s the exact same thing – there’s documented evidence of history, and you’re making up a false reality and denying what actually happened.

you can’t be without the ability to also PnPop. See Malone, duncan, and Amare.

Except that layups are higher percentage shots than jump shots, and if you roll every time, there is no “pop” aspect of it. That’s why it’s called a pick and roll. The pick and pop is generally garbage, one of my personal pet peeves if it doesn’t involve shooting a 3. Jump shots from midrange out to the long 2 just inside the 3point line are the worst shots in all of basketball.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

If you still don't get it, you never will

But you don’t record what these players do under pressure situations, game senario’s, game defining moments, how much time was on the shot clock when he shot the ball, or how much effort oppents put into stopping Beidrins, how much/ often they sag off him or double/help some one else. Stats are not encompassing. They have infact come a long way and do serve a very very good purpose, but they greatly fail to encompass the whole story.

They don’t give credit to a coach who draws up a play to distract the guy responsible for defending Beidrins, let’s say via ellis who kicks it to morrow and the defense has to adjust and beidrins get a wide open dunk.

Something seriously needs to be noted on this thread about the difficulty of the shot. Ellis on one hand HAVING, and yes there is a responsibility to pass around and he’s shoulder it up, to take and make difficult shots.

I don’t see Beidrins making very many, if any difficult shots. Giving him credit for having good hands and dunking or laying up a ball for 2pts when he’s wide open but beyond the hands, arguable quickness, it ends there. there are a number of guys that would be the beneficery of the same pts/game Beidrins displays and therefore devalue him to the point of moderately replaceable. His rebounding is supurb but it at most washes he defeicencies in other categories and this is probably why he’s been on the trading block for a while.

by Balance on Feb 10, 2010 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, they do record what players do

under pressure, in late game and game defining moments.
Are you really going to argue that late-shot clock shots really negatively impact a player’s shooting percentage?

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

There’s something to be said for taking easy shots as opposed to difficult ones. I’m sorry you don’t understand that, but the team that creates the easiest shots is going to win more times than not. Despite “only taking easy shots” or whatever you want to call it, Biedrins has shown the ability to score a decent amount (14+ points per 36 last season). Yeah, he’s doing something right. What you don’t get is in the end, a lot of that stuff doesn’t matter all that much, it cancels out sometimes, other times you’re looking at the inputs when all we really care about are the outputs because those win games. Who’s taking and making more difficult shots? Who cares? No, seriously, who cares? All that matters is how efficiently the team is scoring, and taking difficult shots takes away from that.

let’s say via ellis who kicks it to morrow and the defense has to adjust and beidrins get a wide open dunk.

Just to give you an example of what the actual outputs tell us – take this scenario. Sure, it doesn’t give a coach credit, but Morrow gets credit for an assist, Biedrins gets credit for a basket – do this enough to help win games, and your outputs (scoring efficiency, points, assists) go up, you’re not increasing your turnovers….we end up seeing the end results and recording them.

Also, as Reverend_Randy said, we do record a lot of the things you complained about.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

One more thing about his shooting percentage being the highest in NBA history

Um well, congratulations to you Beidrins. You only shot the ball when you are wide open, and it’s usually less than 5 feet from the rim. What difference does it make what he shoots if he can only give you 8,9,10 pts a game? Do you think we need to feed the post more? Do you think if we Isolated him on the block we’d be more effeicent as a team? Or is it that….your going to score 10pts if you play 25 minutes a game and if you can’t, then you should be in this league unless you are doing a whole lot of other stuff? Rebounding, check. Defense, no.

if you have a record of how many PnR Bedrins is involved in every game….post it. And the success rate, and if it’s such an effecient play why we don’t run it more. Then we can blame Nelson or we can agree he worthless.

by Balance on Feb 10, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

He was just arguing the point that he is a fantastic PnR big

the kinds of shots that Biedrins gets are easy, high percentage shots because of his ability to run the pick and roll.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Watch closely and you’ll find not all of Biedrins shots are open as you’re saying. He quite often finishes in traffic, and at a high percentage. Will Biedrins ever be a 25 points per game player? Nobody said he would, but last year he was scoring just over 14 per 36 minutes of PT, and that’s a pretty decent rate, especially with how efficient he is. He’s still shooting a high percentage, yet his scoring has dropped off. Seems like some pretty strong evidence to me we should be running it more, enough to get him back to where he was scoring before.

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I haven’t been able to see games that Keith Smart takes over for Nelson. Does he use the PnR more? Does he play Biedrins more? Would Smart make a good replacement for Nellie or could we do better?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Smart is awful. When Nellie took a leave they came to Philly and I went to the game – his lineups were even worse, we looked awful, we weren’t running much or playing effectively at all, it was terrible. Philly was awful and they beat us soundly….

by Missing Barry on Feb 10, 2010 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

It's hard to judge a coach on what he does when filling in for a week or two ...

It’s not like he can implement a new offense, or drastically change player responsibilities.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 7:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree, but i’m not sure i want him as coach anyways.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 7:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta with Jason Kidd or Rajon Rondo would be amazing

With a PG who was good at running a team, getting his teammates the ball in good situations, but not necessarily scoring, Monta would still be “Perimeter option #1.” He definitely can’t be a primary ball handler, but I still believe he can be a primary scorer. And he’s definitely the only Warrior capable of generating his own shot other than Maggette. Problem is, he can’t quite pass out of the double team just yet. Maybe it’s got something to do with all the roster shuffling due to injuries, but it’s likely a deeper issue. We’ll see.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I also think he often makes bad decisions with the ball, and his ballhandling really hurts his ability to be effective when he’s the primary ballhandler, but yeah, I can see the points you’re making.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2010 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Most players next to Rondo would be amazing.
The Celtics are so lucky that Pierce has actually improved in the last two years and that Rondo has become a star, because otherwise the declines in Allen and Garnett would be more noted.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 7:13 PM PST up reply actions  

so if we get wall should we keep monta and get rid of curry?

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 12:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Give most any team a HOF big man and they’ll compete for a title ala Hakeem Olajowoun(sp?) with the Rockets.

by ajtrinc on Feb 10, 2010 12:56 AM PST up reply actions  

You can't deny that...

Monta Ellis is a phenomenal player,
overrated or not.

by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Feb 9, 2010 4:45 PM PST reply actions  

This is all very nit-picky

Many of Monta’s shots cannot be tagged as too difficult to make until it is too late and he is committed with no other options.
The players often dont move well off the ball when they have no idea what Monta is about to do. You can blame some of this on Monta, but most of the blame falls to the coaching staff who has asked Monta to go nuts on offense every night.
Put Monta on the Celtics and he will hit midrange jumpers all night and score on some nice moves to the hoop.
But Monta on the current Warriors roster leaves him with the burden of doing everything he can which is not great for his stats.

by warriorsvictim on Feb 9, 2010 4:46 PM PST reply actions  

Many of Monta’s shots cannot be tagged as too difficult to make until it is too late and he is committed with no other options.

This suggests some poor decision making then. He shouldn’t be committing to so many situations with no other options.

I agree that on a better team, Monta could do better. He has in the past. But the key is taking the ball out of his hands more of the time. He’d do better if someone with better judgment was getting him the ball when he could do good things with it. When he’s tasked with deciding when he can do good things with it and when he should move it to someone else, he appears to fail more often than not.

by jae on Feb 9, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure you've ever played Basketball JAE

You’ve repeatedly dismissed his lack for effeciency on this thread. Keep in mind a couple of things
1) sometimes the coach calls your number
2) sometimes your teammates are shooting cold
3) sometimes the shot clock or game clock is low
sometimes the you can’t find an open teammate cause your playing with D leaguers that don’t know what your thinking or the play the coach just called.
Sometimes your so exhausted from playing every minute of the game just to keep it close
Sometimes you have to do more than you are capable of because there isn’t much help available.
Sometime you can’t evalutate talent just by looking at numbers.

Ellis has recovered from injury. And has shown improvement in playmaking and shooting out side the 3pt line. There are more indicator that point to under rated than over rated. I mean…where is he rated outside GSoM? He’s not an all star, he’s playing for a team in a situation the NBA has NEVER seen before. Sometime with only 6 guys healthy, etc.

I think you should be very carefull what you say about Ellis right now. This is a highly unusual senario he is playing in, he’s just one year of major surgery, etc. If i was a GM or sports writer or Blogger i’d hold my breath on saying anything bad about Monta for a while. I certainly would not trade him at this point. Until we have more reasonably comparable time, data, and team.

Isn’t he leading the league in pts in the paint? Isn’t showing hints of a evolving 3pt shot? Isn’t he showing signs of a potential all star and possible super star? Isn’t he showing signs of a great team leader? It’s not easy to get your team to compete every night the way this team does.

by Balance on Feb 10, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Fabulous points, Balance.

I think the blame on Monta here for his team’s losing is blown waayyyy out of proportion for no reason.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually

awful points that have no basis in reality

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

“1) sometimes the coach calls your number”

This year, most of the the time, Nellie is not doing a lot of play-calling. He’s putting guys on the floor and letting them play.

“2) sometimes your teammates are shooting cold”

More often this year Ellis has been shooting cold than they are. Ultimately, however, this one should affect every player equally, right, everybody has cold teammates occasionally. Yet Ellis has had this issue season-long. To claim that he’s adapting to his teammates poor performance presumes that they, are, in fact, performing badly.

But they’re not. They’re putting the ball into the basket more efficiently than he is.

“3) sometimes the shot clock or game clock is low”

Sure. Again, does this happen more than one would expect for Ellis? Does it happen more to him than it does for top guards who play a similar role, like Wade?

“sometimes the you can’t find an open teammate cause your playing with D leaguers that don’t know what your thinking or the play the coach just called.”

An open guy doesn’t usually have to know what play was just called to be open. And it’s not like Nellie is calling a lot of plays. His offense relies on players spreading the floor in a certain way, and there’s very little evidence that the d-leagers we’ve played haven’t been able to figure this out.

“Sometimes your so exhausted from playing every minute of the game just to keep it close”

And yet, if he missed fewer shots earlier in the game, maybe it wouldn’t be such a struggle in the 4th quarter to keep it close. I’m still waiting for somebody to show evidence that Ellis’ is an efficient player in the first quarter.

“Sometimes you have to do more than you are capable of because there isn’t much help available.”

Yes, indeed. This doesn’t seem to be the case with Ellis as he’s playing with a great finisher off dump-offs (in Biedrins) and perhaps the best 3-pt shooter in the league (Morrow) as well as another guy who’s starting to look dangerous from deep (Curry).

" he’s just one year of major surgery, etc. "

No, actually. He’s been cleared for playing for more than a year. He had his surgery 18 months ago. Furthermore, it does not appear that he’s hampered by his surgery, since he still has a quick first step and hasn’t lost his explosiveness to the basket.

If he was struggling because of physical limitations, at 18 months it would raise the question if he was ever going to recover fully. However, since he’s not, the injury doesn’t have a tone of validity as an excuse.

“Isn’t he leading the league in pts in the paint?”

Is that a meaningful stat? He’s second in the league in FGA, I believe, and he’s not a jump shooter … so one would expect him to rank high in points in the paint. He probably leads the league in MISSES in the paint, too, which is really the point.

“Isn’t showing hints of a evolving 3pt shot?”

Sure. So?

“Isn’t he showing signs of a potential all star and possible super star? "

What does this even mean? He’s shown a lot of skills, but not a lot of sense.

" Isn’t he showing signs of a great team leader?"

Not particularly. I don’t see why you are giving him credit for his teammates effort – or lack thereof. He doesn’t seem to have the sort of chemistry with his teammates that, say, Baron had, where he was clearly the leader on the floor.

by Ronaldinho on Feb 10, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Rec'd

I’d also like to add that Monta is showing signs that he actually cares about defense (that in the past he has been highly criticized of) and that he wants to be a very good player on both sides of the floor. He is 2nd in the NBA with 105 total steals averaging 2.2 spg and it wasn’t showed on the stat box when he swatted (clean) the crap out of Kevin Durant who is 7-8 inches taller than him.

I think its a big deal to me because 7 foot players like Dirk Nowitzki let’s 6 foot PG’s drive all over him and score easily. At least Monta takes pride in setting the tone that “Imma pick this fool.” or ’I’mma toss this fool if he tries to get into the paint." I’m sure Dirk’s mentality is “ohh..ill just try my best to stay in front of this guy and hope my height is a hindrance to his shot. oh well. he made the bucket.” [X]

Sure, maybe that block on KD was from the weakside but at least help defense is encrypted in his brain. It takes team defense to win games and that is something the Warriors haven’t collectively been doing consistently and haven’t been on the same page with. If they keep a good core of this team and emphasize team defense year after year, maybe we’ll start to see a difference in the standings in the future. They need to tattoo Defense Wins Championships on their foreheads because we all know that this team fully healthy would run any team out the gym.

ROMESdavidWOOD37 has taken over the Ongline. He's cool.

by ROMESdavidWOOD37 on Feb 10, 2010 3:14 PM PST up reply actions  

They need to tattoo Defense Wins Championships on their foreheads

hahahaha

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 6:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Many of Monta’s shots cannot be tagged as too difficult to make until it is too late and he is committed with no other options.

You ever hear a coach or commentator say something like “don’t leave your feet unless you know what you’re doing with the ball?” Yeah… it’s like that. “Monta, don’t drive past your man unless you either know your going to score or know where your dump off is.” If he’s not keeping track of where the ball should go if help comes over, he should be more careful about his drives.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 9, 2010 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Easy for Hollinger to say, he's not

out there playing 41.8 (or whatever the number is) minutes a game. I for one appreciate Monta’s effort. At least he hasn’t mailed it in.

by SmittytheCutman on Feb 9, 2010 5:21 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Great summary!

Overrated or not, no one can say that Ellis hasn’t put in the effort despite playing on a poor team. We saw, with Jackson, what Ellis could have turned the situation into and instead, so far, has gone out and played his hardest.

by ajtrinc on Feb 10, 2010 1:01 AM PST up reply actions  

I voted for ‘Montadaboss’ only because of my name :)

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 9, 2010 6:17 PM PST reply actions  

hell ya... that's why I threw in there

A Sonics fan without a team... but after 6 seasons now of GS Warriors season tickets have convinced me to adopt the boys from Oakland.

by mcwalter44 on Feb 9, 2010 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Heres the thing

I will agree that statistically, Ellis is overrated. But as a player, Ellis is not overrated and is in fact underrated. You need to watch Ellis to see how good he is, and you can’t just look at stats to determine a player, but Hollinger still says that Ellis is overrated as a PLAYER which is a bunch of BS to me and a whole lot of other people.

by Jayd92009 on Feb 10, 2010 1:05 AM PST reply actions  

Hopefully he will use this slight, combined with the All Star slight as motivation to become a better basketball player

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Feb 10, 2010 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

So true.

And believe it or not, the same was VERY MUCH true of Michael Jordan throughout his career, from high school to the pros. Think about it. He ALWAYS exceeded expectations that weren’t even placed on him to begin with. It’s kind of ridiculous if you think about it, but it always drove him to become better than he was. And he always responded. I think in many respects, Monta is very similar in this regard, n that’s why I compare the two. Monta’s ALWAYS getting better, surprising people, n doing more than was expected of him.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

You know that Monta has been in the league for a very long time?

He’s about to enter the prime of his career. He’ll probably get better before then, but it isn’t a sure thing that he’ll suddenly be a supahstah

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 10, 2010 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Let the Warriors get healthy,

and I tell you, Monta immediately becomes a winner. Once he becomes a winner, he becomes a “Supastah”. It comes with the territory. These two things will take care of themselves naturally in the coming years, as this team grows and gels together.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I tell you,

Haha. In the realm of credibility, that falls somewhere between “I guarantee” and “trust me.”

And when you consider the source, its value is … not particularly high.

Seriously man, if you ever want to be anything more than comic relief on this site, you need to recuse yourself from all future discussions involving Monta.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 10, 2010 5:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Monta is a great player, but i don’t currently think he will be able to play like a great player unless we put him aside a great point guard. He is a great off-guard, and a bad point guard.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 6:44 AM PST reply actions  

Agreed.

I think Curry can become that “great point guard” you mentioned, too.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait…. you agree with me that Monta isn’t a great player right now because of his role, but then you constantly post he is already a top player, who should in theory, be able to step up no matter the situation.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 4:55 PM PST reply actions  

I guess I could've been clearer,

I do firmly believe that Ellis is a great player. That’s the first thing that you said that I agree with.. As for the second part, you basically said you feel that for Monta to maximize the best of his abilities as a player, he needs to play off the ball because he’s a great off guard. I agree with this, too. Monta’s a lousy point guard because his greatest strength is his scoring ability, and to expect him to play like anything other than what he was put on this earth for, which is a shooting guard, is useless and would diminish his greatness. To play Monta at the point is essentially to waste his talent. Fortunately, I think with Curry at the 1, the Warriors understand this and they aren’t gonna try to force him into being something he isn’t. Monta IS the Warriors’ 2.

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 5:19 PM PST reply actions  

I guess I could’ve been clearer,

On this post or many others?
and ok, the last part of your ‘essay’ was pretty good. Just make points like this, and people aren’t going to get on you.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:35 PM PST reply actions  

NVM to the last part.

and ok, the last part of your ‘essay’ was pretty good. Just make points like this, and people aren’t going to get on you. decent. Just post less, and make them more meaningful.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 5:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Good god I have 50 comments in this thread haha

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Feb 10, 2010 8:09 PM PST reply actions  

No, some guy named Nauticus came on here last summer and hijacked my post and turned it into a 900 comment political debate.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 9:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh my God, man!

That’s TERRIBLE!! THAT’s the sort of thing that shouldn’t be tolerated!

by Krazee max on Feb 10, 2010 9:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah but hes not too bad. Hes usually a pretty good poster.

Euro Players Rock! Go Warriors!

by monta.da.boss on Feb 10, 2010 10:31 PM PST up reply actions  

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