Oh yeah and I meant to say I wouldn’t take “getting his strength up” as a given. He doesn’t seem to have a large frame and seems pretty skinny naturally – it might be that to build his strength he’ll have to put on weight, which could make him slower and actually be a detriment to his game overall.

One of the fundamental points I try to get at is….how can we project what a player will become? One of the more popular ways to do this seems to be picking a good player the guy reminds you of (in this case Nash), and just assume he’ll turn into that exact player. Curry reminds me of Nash, too. I see where that comparison comes from. He also reminds me a bit of Steve Kerr, of Mark Price, of Jose Calderon, etc. Just randomly picking one of those players he seems to play like doesn’t seem like it has any predictive value whatsoever. The better question is what do we know about players developments, and how did the players I named become as good (or as not good) as they did? For Nash, he started out a worse player than Curry….but then something magical happened, he improved probably more than anyone else in NBA history has at a late age, becoming the most skilled player I’ve ever seen. So, what does that mean for Curry? Well….that doesn’t seem like the most likely of developmental paths for someone to follow, so what else do we know that we can apply to Curry?

Well, for starters, we have aging curves. Apparently they don’t seem to function based on how long you’ve been in the NBA, but rather based on your age. Which essentially means you can’t compare Curry to guys like Jennings and Tyreke right now, you have to think of Curry compared to what Jennings and Tyreke are going to be 2 years from now, when they’re 21. Next, I like to look at skills – what skills do they possess, what skills are they likely to improve on, and by how much? This is where the athleticism part comes in for me – it’s just one of many factors that contribute to how good a player is, but it’s one a player can’t really improve upon in any substantial way. It’s always going to be a negative for Curry – not something he can’t overcome to be really good, but just one factor he doesn’t have going for him. Mostly it will probably limit his defense, but it will also limit his ability to beat defenders and put the defense at a disadvantage the way guys like Paul and Rondo do.

On the other hand, Curry is a great shooter, has shown good court vision, is a willing passer, a good ballhandler….he’s a good offensive player already. That puts a pretty high floor on what he’ll become given how high he’s started his rookie year out. The big areas for improve I see are consistency, especially with his passing (too many TO’s on non-fundamental passes, for instance), and decision making, both of which seem reasonable for him to improve a substantial amount. I expect an increase in his passing numbers as well as a nice decrease in turnovers, all the while he becomes a more crafty and effective offensive player. So we have a very good offensive PG, but between possible struggles to beat his man at times and his defensive shortcomings, he’s no Chris Paul, but that’s fine.

So based on what we know about how much players improve, and some specifics to Curry in terms of what his skillset is and what skills he is likely to improve on and what he can’t…..well, I’m just trying to project the likely scenario for him, which seems to me more of a Mark Price type player. Improving to Steve Nash levels is just so unlikely because almost no one improves that much. I don’t know what the future holds for Curry, but the best thing to do is bet with the odds, and that’s the case I’m making – that realistically, if we break down our analysis of Curry and put it into the context of how much NBA players tend to improve (especially given that Curry is higher up his aging curve than most rookies)….well, we can start to see a picture. We might not agree, but I think I’m making a reasonable case.

Basically, if you have objections, that’s fine, but put in some thought to “how do we project a player’s future?” What variables are meaningful for predicting future performance and development? Just picking someone Curry reminds you of and arguing he’s going to turn into that player just because he seems similar doesn’t cut it.

I’ll leave you with a quote from an SI article today:

His primary weakness is a frail physique that makes him seem smaller than his listed height of 6-3 and leaves him susceptible to hard traps on the perimeter.

“He’s not a terrific athlete who can finish over other guys,” the scout said. “And his defense is never going to be a strength” — though in Don Nelson’s system, who would know? — “but he makes up for it with his offense.”