Kev's Defensive Breakdown: Hornets at Warriors (March 17, 2010)

by duaneok66 on Mar 18, 2010 5:08 PM PDT

For an explanation of what's gong here - please refer to "Kevi's Breakdown - Raptors at Warriors (March 13, 2010)

The team total came up +12, which is the best of the three games this week. Still, it lags behind the Thunder season average of +25. The numbers make sense when you consider that the Warriors gave up over 120 points.

Chris Hunter (+9)

The notes: (mistakes in bold)

· Contested David West (1st 3:20)

· Contested Morris Peterson outside (2nd 10:00)

· Contested David West (2nd 6:30)

· Contested Darius Songalia (6:10)*

· Steal in transition (3rd 11:20)

· Blown Box out – Emeka Okafor (3rd 10:30)

· Contested Emeka Okafor (3rd 10:00)

· Foul – Monta Ellis fouled Julian Wright after Hunter missed a box out on West (3rd 8:20)

· Blocked Julian Wright’s shot – Zone defense (3rd 7:10)

· Steal on entry pass (3rd 5:10)

· Drew offensive foul Emeka Okafor (3rd 4:40)

· Fouled David West (3rd 2:10)

· Contested David West (3rd 1:30)

· Contested David West (3rd :30)

· Fouled Mo Peterson outside (4th 10:00)

· Blown Box out – Foul David West (8:20)

· Post defense on David West (7:40)

· Posted by David West (7:10)

I thought Hunter should have started the game, and Maggette’s listless effort (see below) only validated my opinion.

Anthony Tolliver (+9)

Reggie Williams (+6)

I like what I see so far from the VMI product. Let’s look at a play early in the second quarter. Williams is guarding Peterson on the left wing. Peterson cuts down and across the lane. Williams tracks closely and turns to see the ball at the same time. Williams either deflected the ball away or forced Peterson into a tough catch. In any case, the ball was deflected in to the hands of C J Watson. Yes it was a fundamental defensive staple of seeing ball and man – but sometimes that isn’t a priority on this squad.

Anthony Morrow (+4)

C J Watson (+1)

Devean George (-1)

Corey Maggette (-7)

· Posted by David West (1st 11:30)

· Gave up position to David West – OR and putback (1st 10:50)

· Fronted David West in post – David West (1st 8:30)

That was just in the first four minutes of the game. I know that Nelson started Maggette over Hunter for offensive reasons, but Maggette still needs to show some effort.

Monta Ellis (-9)

A lot of the comments on the Lakers game focused on Monta’s defense. I stand behind what I wrote – and I stand behind the score. Monta did little to slow Darren Collison. I would have started CJ on Darren, but maybe Nelson didn’t want Monta to have another physical night against a bigger swingman (Mo Peterson).

The Notes:

· Steal from behind Darren Collison (1st 10:30)

· Steal from David West (1st 8:00)

· Fouled David West – reach in (1st 2:55)

· Gave up three to Darren Collison (1st :30)

· Gave up defensive position to go for steal – rotation – pass to DW for layup (2nd 10:30)

· Forced airball from Darren Collison (2nd 4:20)

· Gambled and lost – Marcus Thornton left open – rotation; missed shot; offensive rebound; Okafor layup (2nd 2:40)

· Blown Box out – Marcus Thornton layup (2nd 2:10)

· ZONE Look on defense – two for one situation – Ellis looked clueless – Collison hits a three right in front of him (2nd 0:30)

· Gave up penetration to Collison – rotation; Morris Peterson hits an open three (3rd 0:50)

· Steal on Collison from behind (End of 3rd)

· Forced TO off Collison out of bounds (4th 11:00)

· Gave up penetration to Marcus Thornton (9:10)

· Contested Marcus Thornton (8:20)

· Gave up penetration – rotation foul on Chris Hunter (6:20)

· Gave up penetration – Darren Collison (5:40)

· Foul on Marcus Thornton (3:30)

· Contested Darren Collison (2:30)

· Contested Darren Collison (:40)

Note the numerous mistakes – he was a sieve in the fourth quarter. Now, Part of it is due to circumstance – he shouldn’t be playing forty eight minutes – CJ could have played more, BUT if Nelson was going to play him the whole game – he could have started him on Peterson – a guy that shoots mostly jumpers.

I just don’t think Monta is a good defender. He would rather swipe at the ball rather than maintain defensive position. He leads the league in steals – but he usually gives up position when swiping at the ball. In contrast – Curry, who is in the top ten in the NBA in steals – gets his steals in the context of the defense. In transition, Ellis would rather swipe at the ball instead of getting back.

An example of his lack of basketball IQ occurred late in the first quarter. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one that called it. There was thirty three seconds left. The Hornets have the ball in the backcourt – the ball is thrown in from out of bounds. Darren Collison saves time by letting the ball roll. It’s a dead giveaway to any NBA vet (or fans like us) that a two for one is coming. Collison picks up the ball about halfcourt. Monta retreats toward the lane. Collison has PLENTY of room to drop the three – and there is over twenty-eight seconds left. Even if Monta let Collison drive in (and get a layup) that is one less point and less time on the clock. A similar play happened (albeit in a zone defense situation) before half. Monta simply has multiple lapses in concentration on defense.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 4 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

There are very few good man on man defenders on this team, Monta is no exception.

So he tries to compensate for his lack of size and strenght through quickness. Its the only possible way he can compete against most players in this league.

If our team is going to be a solid defensive squad we need to play team defense that utilizes our speed, athleticism, and quickness. I’d say we rank in the top 3in the league in all of those categories, combining those attributes with our playing style and that is the only possible way we can give up less than we score. We’d be doing a lot of rotations, giving a lot of weakside help. Think of the We Believe squad or the year after, not a lot of great individual D, with the exception of Jack.

Realistically, we as a team can average 110 points for, while giving up 106 ppg. That is provided we’re healthy. Sure that would still make us one of the worst defenssive teams in the league. But when you score more than you give up, you win.

So yes, Monta is a pretty poor defender, so are 14 of the 19 players we’ve featured this season. Monta is already a step ahead of most of them though. Due to his previous Warriors experience, he knows that quickness, speed, and athleticism are the only ways a smaller Nellie squad can be successful. We just need to get healthy and pray everyone else realizes that.

by myk on Mar 18, 2010 5:46 PM PDT reply actions

One of these days

I’m going to have to finish my project of turning my computer into a DVR, record the games, verify your results, and at the same time, learn a few things about watching defense. For now, based on my limited knowledge of watching defense, my guess on why Monta guarded Darren Collison instead of CJ is that Collison is pretty quick, quicker than CJ can keep up with.

by IQofaWarrior on Mar 18, 2010 6:10 PM PDT reply actions

On the instances where a player gives up penetration – are those all in situations where the offensive player just flat out beats the defensive player or do you include instances where screens are involved?

by Missing Barry on Mar 18, 2010 6:27 PM PDT reply actions

a defensive player is NOT penalized when a screen is involved . . .

by duaneok66 on Mar 18, 2010 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Thank You so much

finally we can show people like Dubzfan that Monta doesn’t play good defense. This has been far too common for him:

Gave up defensive position to go for steal – rotation – pass to DW for layup

Gambled and lost – Marcus Thornton left open – rotation; missed shot; offensive rebound; Okafor layup

Gave up penetration to Collison – rotation; Morris Peterson hits an open three

ZONE Look on defense – two for one situation – Ellis looked clueless

Before, terrible defense like this would not be quantified in the box score, or just in our aesthetic view, but now this system highly penalizes terrible defense from others, that causes others to foul a wide open player, for other players to contest, leaving their player wide open. This system is not perfect, but it is the best attempt by anyone to quantify a players defense individually, and for the team, without having as much noise (and more explanation) than +/- (which is still good to use).
Duane, I highly appreciate the effort.
Just curious, how long does it take you to analyze the game? Do you have to pause it constantly, or are you quick with writing these things down?

Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!

by MDB on Mar 18, 2010 7:22 PM PDT reply actions

There is NO way I could do it without a DVR – and some plays I have to rewind five or six times to make sure I “score” it properly – with the spreadsheet and a halfway decent writeup it takes three hours minimi=um – and that’s assuming I fast forward through all the commercials (and even skip some of the offensive possessions to save time) . . .

by duaneok66 on Mar 18, 2010 7:34 PM PDT reply actions

I just don’t think Monta is a good defender

haha, maybe you shouldn’t try to rate him then? someone less biased could probably do it better?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 18, 2010 10:10 PM PDT reply actions

One thing I have noticed as a trend in your 3 posts has been what appears to be a somewhat anti-Monta defense bias. This could just be a factor of not including each individual stat for each Warrior, but you take a good amount of time to call out “he did this, which led to this, the shot was missed, but there was a rebound, and then the next shot went in” (over generalization for effect).

This obviously leads to anger from some (ala dubzfan) and overexcited cheers from others (mdb), as does every other post though.

There seems to be way too much subjectivity in this stat. I would imagine if the two posters mentioned above did the identical analysis of you, one would be noticeably more negative, and the other would likely be positive. I’ll leave the rest of you to guess which would be which.

by FitzPRSpin on Mar 18, 2010 10:10 PM PDT reply actions

There seems to be way too much subjectivity in this stat.

yeah, to be really scientific and eliminate the personal bias he’d have to make them play with bags over their heads and with random uni numbers.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 18, 2010 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Makes sense to me to explain Monta every time, he’s probably the result we’re all most interested in.

by Missing Barry on Mar 19, 2010 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions

thank you

If I just posted Monta Ellis (-9) , I would get several comments along the line of “No way” or “whatever” or" where’s the evidence??"

So I go ahead and do that upfront . . .

I had the same issues with Westbrook of the Thunder – people thought he was a great defender, I had to post copious amounts of evidence to show that he wasnt . . .

by duaneok66 on Mar 19, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions

There seems to be way too much subjectivity in this stat.

I’m sorry, but a measure that looks at whether or not you got beat on a particular possession is not subjective. Was Monta guarding Collison when he drove into the lane and scored on an easy layup? Did Monta commit a reach in foul on David West? Where is the subjectivity in that? I don’t care why you didn’t contest a shot, your job as a defender is to contest a shot when your mark goes up for a shot. If you put yourself in a position where you can’t do that, you’re failing as a defender. It’s really pretty simple and not subjective.

Subjective would be making excuses for players performing poorly (e.g. excusing Monta for having to guard Kobe Bryant or playing too many minutes).

Fact: Monta tends to give up easy baskets, play defense with his hands, and cause defensive breakdowns in other manners.

Maybe this is due to Nelson’s emphasis on creating deflections, maybe it’s Monta trying to conserve energy for the offensive end, but for whatever reason Monta breaks down defensively more often than the rest of the team.

you take a good amount of time to call out "he did this, which led to this, the shot was missed, but there was a rebound, and then the next shot went in" (over generalization for effect).

This is a completely and utterly transparent strawman. “Over generalization for effect?” That’s what you’re doing. Duane provides raw data and some analysis. Some extrapolation on specific illustrative instances is helpful in understanding what the data means.

I’m sorry you don’t like the outcome, but it this objective measurement of defensive performance suggests that Monta is lazy on defense. Maybe that’s because he’s conserving energy for offense or Nellie is ordering him to gamble on passing lanes and steals rather than play positional defense, but for whatever reason Monta is causing more defensive breakdowns than anyone else on the team.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Mar 20, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions

The other thing I am missing is how you came up with a -9 based on your notes. I count 11 negatives and 8 positives. Explanation?

by FitzPRSpin on Mar 18, 2010 10:12 PM PDT reply actions

they all have different weights – for instance , steals and bloks are worth more than contests and deflections . . .

by duaneok66 on Mar 19, 2010 4:34 AM PDT up reply actions

"I just don’t think Monta is a good defender. He would rather swipe at the ball rather than maintain defensive position."

I am no basketball expert, but here’s my view:

I don’t really think this is all because that’s how Monta plays defense, but rather the defensive scheme the Warriors play. The Warriors seem to rely on help defense, trying to trap a ball handler while the quicker defender looks for a chance to take a swipe at the ball. There’s a reason Monta (2.3 stls/game) and Curry (1.8) are in the top 10 in steals per game, and that we lead the league in forced TOs, because they are a product of the system. However, we can see with the help defense we lose the ability to grad defensive rebounds and close in on kickouts as we constantly rotate and have our bigmen away from the rim.

Imo, we just simply do not have players who are talented in a traditional type of defense. Monta is not a one-on-one defensive stopper, but he is our best perimeter defender. However, he is better at disrupting opponents and causing TOs and that’s what we use him for. Sometimes it pays off big (Monta thieving Kobe, for example) but sometimes it doesn’t. People readily agree that we play a gimmick offense, but I am not sure as many people realize that our defensive scheme is just as gimmicky, relying on help defense and hoping that you cause enough chaos for lots of forced TOs. Unfortunately, I think the sad truth is that this is the scheme we sort of have to play with the talent we have. If we tried playing more traditional defense with our current roster, our defensive rating would probably get even worse.

That is why I like Devean George, his knees may not agree with him anymore, but he is the most fundamental forward we have at this point. That is also why I really hope we can keep Raja Bell.

I guess this just throws more fingers into Nellie being the problem, but my fear is that this team was designed specifically for Nellie to coach it. I don’t think we could get just any coach to replace Nellie and take this team as is to the holy grail of the Cohan era that is the 8th seed.

So let me get this straight... Maggette is the healthy guy.
"Winning is not enough. All others must lose." - Larry Ellison

by Badly Browned on Mar 19, 2010 10:20 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I guess this just throws more fingers into Nellie being the problem, but my fear is that this team was designed specifically for Nellie to coach it.

This is one of the things I see as a systematic weakness in our organization. We play Nellie ball, which is frustrating enough, but we also actively attempt to get players to play Nellie ball, and obviously Nellie only plays guys with the skillset he’s looking for….from top to bottom, our entire organization has a flaw that overvalues certain offensive traits while undervaluing the things we desperately need to actually produce a respectable team.

"Richmond, VA. For when West Virginia is too classy"

by Missing Barry on Mar 19, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

from top to bottom, our entire organization has a flaw that overvalues certain offensive traits while undervaluing the things we desperately need to actually produce a respectable team.

Wow, that’s a mantra (or sig line) if ever I heard one.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Mar 19, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions