Through NBA Eyes: Round 4 of the NCAA Tourney - John Wall = Monta Ellis?
by Poor Man's Commish on Mar 27, 2010 12:43 PM PDT
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I just don't think GSW needs two of these.
Three first-round picks got bounced in the last 48 hours: Evan Turner, Wes Johnson, and Quincy Pondexter. Not good for the guy who watches the NCAA through NBA eyes. :-(
To add to the disappointment, the Bay Area's Omar Samhan came crashing back down to earth, while the blowout of his St. Mary's squad gave us a rather un-evaluable opportunity to catch up on Ekpe Udoh's game.
Here's what's in store for today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday), in the Elite Eight...
SATURDAY, MARCH 27, 2010
 |
| More entertaining than the game itself? |
- 1:30pm PDT: #5 Butler vs #2 Kansas State
I'm going to piss off NCAA fans here, but I don't know, if you're planning to watch the Kentucky and Warriors-Mavericks games tonight and would rather watch 5-6 hours straight of hoops instead of 7-8, skip this one. Yeah, Butler and KSU are nice well-coached teams and "good team basketball" but we NBA types, we need a little more flair than that -- how else can you explain the sellouts at Oracle? That's the same reason we don't go watch high school state championship games. All NCAA fans who say they prefer to watch the NCAA over the NBA ought to be forced to watch high school state championship games. You can't tell me high school state championships don't have good team basketball, right?
We introduced you to Gordon Hayward of Butler, who's in that pile of hopeful Baby Dirks, but I haven't seen a whole lot to be blown away. Again, I'd much rather pick Luke Babbitt of Nevada. If you're just dying to see a Baby Dirk in this next round, tune into Duke (mentioned below). Both Hayward and Babbitt are only sophomores, but Babbitt's got nothing left to prove at the NCAA level. Hayward does, unless his draft stock soars as a result of Butler making the Final Four. Really, it shouldn't make a difference since NBA GMs and scouts will tend to look at the whole body of work. Hayward needs to stay in school one more year, unless next year's crop of Butler recruits is crap and his best opportunity is now. But with the impending 2011 lockout, Hayward might just come out. - 4:05pm PDT: #2 West Virginia vs #1 Kentucky -- FUTURE WARRIOR(S) ALERT!
Thank goodness CBS put this one early today. This is really the only can't-miss game for NBA eyes in the Elite Eight. The height and athleticism of West Virginia's perimeter will be a good test for Kentucky's backcourt talent. But if Kentucky's guards can get the ball down low to DeMarcus Cousins, it could be a long day for WVU, which has no starter taller than 6'8".
Here's your moment, Devin.
Make the most of it.
I think Warrior fans really ought to be thinking about Cousins right about now. If there's any summer in which you maybe sorta didn't want the #1 pick, a la Greg Oden vs Kevin Durant, this is it. I actually wrote about this three years ago.
Cousins demolished the Cornell zone, which featured a fairly decent 7-footer, and has a reported 7'6" wingspan. I'll say it: he's better than Chris Webber was when the Warriors made C-Webb the #1 pick.
If the Warriors came away with the #1 pick, they'd almost be peer-pressured into picking John Wall, which would cause a myriad of conflict in the Warrior fan base, because no one can envision the Dubs (and this almost has nothing to do with ownership) trading away golden boy Stephen Curry. But what could most definitely be envisioned is Monta Ellis being shipped out.
The problem is, I think John Wall = Monta Ellis. Watch the game. See what you think. You talk about crazy athleticism? That's Monta. Ability to dish to an open man? You can't knock Monta on his assists. Able to do extraordinary things at any moment of the game? Monta.
I'd even say that Monta Ellis is, with 5 more years of NBA experience (wow, time flies!), a more polished version of John Wall. Monta is what Wall is supposed to be in the NBA.
I can think of many other guys
I'd rather pick in the 1st round.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I hope the Warriors don't get the #1 pick.
If the Warriors came away with the #1 pick, there would be so much talk of who's going to share the ball in a Monta/Steph/Wall backcourt, that everything would become chaos and bound to implode. That's the last thing we need after Baron Davis and Moped-gate, then the rash of injuries this season. We need some stability.
Anyways, today, Wall (6'4") will probably go up against Da'Sean Butler (6'7") head-to-head, since the smaller Eric Bledsoe (6'1") would probably get checked by the smaller Casey Mitchell (6'4"). Great matchups through NBA eyes.
I must also say, based on the versus-total-fundamental-basketball (i.e., Cornell) game, I came away completely underwhelmed by Bledsoe. He couldn't dribble, couldn't shoot, couldn't pass, couldn't do much of anything against a defense that carefully studied tape on him. Plus, he's 6'1"! Btw, Wall was a bit of a caged tiger, too, with Cornell's zone, although I knew that was going to happen, being so intimately familiar with the Ivy League style of play. So, Bledsoe is clearly riding the Kentucky hype. NBAdraft.net has him at #12 and he's unlisted on DraftExpress.
SUNDAY, MARCH 28, 2010
- 11:20am PDT: #6 Tennessee vs #5 Michigan State -- FUTURE WARRIOR ALERT!
Wayne Chism's draft stock improved in Tennessee's upset of Ohio State. At 6'9" 246, he can run the floor, he can catch a post-up and make his move without hesitation (soooo many college players are too indecisive when they catch the ball inside the paint), and he can run the floor. He just might be available for the Warriors' #33 pick. NBAdraft.net has him at #50 and DraftExpress has him unlisted.
But yeah, it's a bit of an early tipoff for us West Coast partiers. CBS: so dumb. - 2:05pm PDT: #3 Baylor at #1 Duke
Down low, it's Ekpe Udoh versus the blue collar Plumlee brothers on Duke. It's still a bit difficult to evaluate Udoh because he has help down low with 7'0" Josh Lomers and 6'10" Anthony Jones -- can you believe Baylor has a bigger team than the Warriors will put on the floor tonight?!
Here's your moment, LaceDarius.
Make the most of it.
I think this is the true test for Kyle Singler, Duke's Baby Dirk hopeful who now seems like a better NBA prospect than Jon Scheyer (wouldn't have thought that mid-season). Can he get his shot off on Jones? Btw, I think Singler has to stay another year. He's just been inconsistent all year. But, again, Duke's run and the impending 2011 NBA lockout could cause Singler to come out. If he stays, Scheyer (senior) will be gone next year, so there will be more shots to go around for him and Nolan Smith, and maybe he can edge closer to 20 ppg.
The other intriguing matchup is Scheyer versus Baylor's gunner, LaceDarius Dunn (junior 6'4" 205, 19.5 ppg, 42.4% treys, 4.8 rpg, 1.9 apg). Dunn is not listed on either the NBAdraft.net or DraftExpress boards and you have to figure, Dunn's going to make some serious considerations for coming out if Baylor advances to the Final Four and he continues to put up the numbers he's been putting up, especially in the points-per-shot category.
Well, that about does it. If you're an NBA GM, you're hoping it's Kentucky vs Baylor on one side of the bracket. The other side? I don't know, maybe Tennessee (Chism) vs Butler (Hayward)? As is often the case with the tournament -- and because I run leagues and tournaments for a living -- I can tell you that this happens in any tournament format, the semifinals could be the real championship: Kentucky vs Baylor.
Eh, I got things to do Monday nights, anyways! Hey CBS/NCAA, wouldn't it be better to go Friday-Sunday for the Final Four and Championship? Again, I don't get the logic, although they've been doing Saturday-Monday since the beginning of time.Still, NCAA, please renew with ESPN. Pretty please?
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prediction
Steph Curry does not ever play with John Wall.
It just doesn’t work. You can’t have two legitimate point guards playing at the same time. My preference is that if we get the #1 pick, we either take Turner straight up, or trade Wall for an established PF.
Haven't two PG's played together and won a championship?
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
Yeah...
Who needs John Wall when we already have someone better than Lebron James, right?
"I could be chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause."
haha, correct.
A death-defying, high-flying, three-hundred and sixty degree, SLAM DUNK!!!!
by LighTz707OuT on Mar 27, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Curry and Ellis>Curry and Wall
I can’t see Curry and Wall playing together on the same team because Wall needs the ball the majority of the time, and there is no way the Warriors trade Curry. So if they get the number one pick, they will either take Turner, or trade the pick to get an all star type player.
You are saying Wall needs the ball more than Monta?
Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info
by cybermaldonado on Mar 27, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes I am
Monta has proved that he can be a very good player off the ball (when he was with Baron, and he is starting to adjust back to pleying that way with Curry). Wall has the ball all the time for Kentucky. He is a point guard and he would take away from Curry’s strengths.
Is that serious?
Wall is 6-4 with a lot of length. Aka physically comparable to Dwayne Wade. Monta has no length.
That couldn't be farther from the truth
for the reasons that tafkasam laid out. Wall could become a very good defender at the two with his physical gifts, and he’d be absolutely dominant defending ones.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I bet Curry or Wall could work off the ball for a long time
we could also rotate the team so that at least one of them was on the court for a large amount of the game. Ellis is stuck between 2 positions, whereas Wall can play both and excel in them.
I also like Curry + Wall defensively better than Curry + Ellis. Wall has the physical tools to be a top guard defender, like Gary Payton.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I also like Curry + Wall defensively better than Curry + Ellis. Wall has the physical tools to be a top guard defender, like Gary Payton.
+1
If Wall is “only” Monta offensively (I don’t buy it, i think he is a different player for one, but hey apparently every 6-3 guy who is quick and drives to the hoop is the same..) what he could bring defensively makes him more than enough reason to draft him and trade Monta.
The Monta/Ellis backcourt is awful defensively not because of height but because of length. Wall may only be 6-4 but he has length comparable to Wade or Tyreke (we shall see during combine)
there is no way the Warriors trade Curry.
Why not? What if we get Wall and someone offers us a better player for Curr-bury? Would we be stupid enough to turn them down? ( knowing this team we might but we shouldn’t ) point is there’s always someone who can make moving any player a smart move unless you already have Lebron James.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 28, 2010 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Hayward has not impressed me at all, I know he has size, but his game just looks like it would not be effective in the NBA to me.
I’m not so sure about the John Wall to Monta Ellis comparison. Is their passing game really that similar? Was Monta averaging 6.5 assists as a freshman in college? Obviously, he didn’t play in college, but his first year with comparable minutes he averaged 4.1 assists. Yes, Wall also has a lot of turnovers, but he is a freshman doing a lot for that team, so I will cut him some slack. Plus he is taller and weighs more. The point is, I don’t know if that’s the best comparison.
Also, seemingly every white player is Baby Dirk. Gordon Hayward? Really? There’s not one player that fits his game better than Dirk Nowitzki? Come on he shoots 29% from three.
I’ll assume you are talking about the Ellis-Wall part right?
Come on, the drive and dish style of passing could describe many, many players. If you go by how effective they are passing (looking at statistics for the results of their styles), Wall, compared to a year older Ellis (rookie Ellis didn’t get enough minutes) has a better assist to turnover ratio. So even if what you are saying is true, Wall is better at it, and has more room for improvement as well.
Seeing John Wall=Monta Ellis will likely make you want him less. What about John Wall=Dwayne Wade? Wade is always around 6 or 7 assists every season, and 3 or 4 turnovers. I’m not saying that he is a guaranteed Wade at all, I’m saying, I think the author has already decided that Wall=Monta and thus views Wall as less desirable than Wall is.
Also, I like Ellis’ handle better than many on this board, but it just does not compare to Wall’s.
yes but Wall actually dishes. Big difference
Walls assists to FG attempted ratio is 0.56
Montas is 0.24
for comparison. Derrick Rose last year was 0.43, CP3 was 0.67 in college both years. I could continue to compare to others but I think that’s pretty apt comparison, he’s not Chris Paul but he’s much less selfish than Derrick Rose and Monta is ZERO comparison…
Ellis doesn't dish all that much on drives
he mostly just takes the bad 1 on 3 shot.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow haterade is still being drunk huh?
I dont understand people on this site. Monta is a star NBA player, who has shown the past few weeks that yes, both he and Curry can play together and more importantly win games, yet, for some reason, people on this website continue with their love of a rookie over a star, ans a rookie with a player who hasn’t even proven himself yet in john Wall Gimme a break. Too many many bandwagon jumpers on this website
Monta has been a mucher better teammate/player the past 10-12 games or so...
and it is definately looking like he and Curry can function as successful backcourt for the foreseeable future. As good as Wall is and is going to be he is a mistake to put on this team when getting a versatile swing like Turner or a beast like Cousins fits what we have much better. If we can find a way to get rid of Maggs this offseason than Turner has to be the man. Otherwise if Maggs is still here we should grab Cousins and look at moving Beans, Ronny, or Wright. I feel both Turner and Cousins are future all stars and depending on our situation I will be pleased with either one. But man would I would love to see Cousins and Randolph on the floor together!
That would be insane, we would be UNstoppable!!!
by crazywarrior on Mar 27, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya in about 2 years
with Curry in his 3rd season, Monta at all-star status, randolph in his 4th season and Cousins with a year of experience in our system we would be mean for sure.
by pre10d on Mar 27, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Monta will be MUCH better in 2 years than he is now
and also, Monta + Curry does not work defensively. I guess it’s an alright back court if your only aspirations are the second round of the playoffs, though.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I know they don't work defensively
but that team would be incredibly fun to watch. Conference finals at best but If Monta is still here we know we can’t expect a title. Bit if Monta is still here he will be a more complete player 2 years from now as he gains more chemistry with Steph and some of Curry’s smarts rub off on him.
Cousins demolished the Cornell zone, which featured a fairly decent 7-footer, and has a reported 7'6" wingspan. I'll say it: he's better than Chris Webber was when the Warriors made C-Webb the #1 pick.
Well, since you said “it”, I’ll go on to say you are a crack head and are beginning to lose credibility…Cousins better the CWebb? In what world???
John Wall doesn’t do anything that make your eyes pop out. He is exceptionally quick, yet always under control, and he seems to make the right decisions. I’m not sure if he’s a 100% sure thing, but he’s fairly close.
If he plays to his pro potential, he’s a Dwyane Wade type.
If he doesn’t, he’s a Monta Ellis type.
And I like Monta.
I don't think it matters
From what I’ve seen, Curry could probably play with anyone. He has a natural knack for getting the correct player the ball in the right situation.
And since John Wall hasn’t said he cannot play with Curry, I’d go with him.
I think Wall or Curry would have to be willing to play off the ball at times
both have skillsets that can work while they dominate the ball or work off ball. Monta needs to work off ball, but he’s too small to play the off guard.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Wah wah. I wonder if we all go back to when we said "something" and it was
held forever like a child who cant let go of a bad memory
by crazywarrior on Mar 27, 2010 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
The worst you can get out of him is a Derrick Rose type player
According to some GM’s in the NBA.
by Richboievans on Mar 27, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
He is not Monta! because he is a true PG
He has a lot of vision and his assist to fg attempted ratio shows his unselfishness. He looks to kick out or find a big. Monta just doesn’t have that vision. I’m sorry, with the array of shooters the Warriors have, and Monta’s ability to get into the lane at will, he should have ALOT more assists than he does. Turnovers aside, this team scores over 110 ppg and Monta struggles to find 5 assists when someone like Brandon Roy gets it easily with less offensive weapons around him and a much slower tempo.
I don’t know that Monta is a selfish player, but he really lacks vision, he focuses on the hoop. Wall does not. Like I posted below his assist to turnover ratio is miles better than Monta and is somewhere in between Rose and CP3 in college, which is a good measure for his PG abilities, more than Rose, but not CP3.
If you want to know Deron Williams Sophomore/Junior average on assist to FG attempted ratio, Rajon Rondo’s college ratio were close to identical to John Walls this year. I think it’s a good way of measuring how ‘unselfish’ a player is, or atleast how much he looks to involve his teammates.
What?
How is Curry not a true point guard? You can’t be serious with that statement. He has great court vision, high basketball IQ and he is a terrific passer.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 27, 2010 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
He doesn't have the speed to get to any spot on the court, or penetrate at will
but I still think he was as pure a PG as there ever was. “True PG” is kind of a goofy thing to say.
I think Curry and Wall could legitimately handle on different plays- both seem to be good enough players and ballhandlers to run it through them. If one develops into a significantly better ballhandler, we could move one off-ball full time. They both have nice skillsets for that.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Curry
He doesn’t have the speed to get to any spot on the court, or penetrate at will
That’s true, but he can get to any spot on the floor with his dribbling ability.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 27, 2010 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Mazzulla
The backup-turned-starter is averaging 2.2 points per game on the season and is outscoring everyone.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 27, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Kentucky
The Wildcats are not going to win when they shoot 0-for-19 from deep and Wall and Bledsoe combine to go 4-for-12 from the line.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 27, 2010 6:04 PM PDT reply actions
Bilas has a mancrush on Kentucky.
Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info
Now Kentucky loses and DEAD SILENCE from Bilas. lol.
Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info
by cybermaldonado on Mar 27, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s a feel good story of sorts: Huggins over the sleazy recruiter Calipari.
Quit making the theiving Wall Street Fat-Cat Bankers even richer.
moveyourmoney.info
It’s a feel good story of sorts:
and shows the flaws of a single elimination tourney, one can lose the best teams before the finals then all they got left is a sham title to hand out.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Mar 28, 2010 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I do think that Curry and Wall can co-exist in the same way Curry and Ellis are because both Curry and Wall are tremendous talents and both understand the game better than Monta, at least from a ball-movement, “little things” perspective. Curry more than Wall.
But, I think that Curry and Ellis are better than what Curry and Wall can be for a few years. You can’t beat experience and Ellis has that over Wall. While the prospect of having a superstar in Wall play alongside another potential superstar in Curry is exciting, it might be several years till you see that potential scratch the surface. Whereas Curry and Ellis have already begun this process. And it looks like Monta continues to develop his game to adapt to Curry’s.
It’s a tough call. It would be easier, maybe not better, that we get the #2 pick and draft Turner. I think we can then keep Curry and Ellis and play Turner at 3…at least for a season or two.
If we draft Wall, then I don’t know how a rotation of 3 supremely talented, but small guards can co-exist and more importantly, build for the future.
Confident Marco Belinelli supporter
I didn’t watch much of the Kentucky game, but Wall didn’t look special at all. Nothing but a score-first PG with no jump shot. I don’t think he can even be as good as a Derrick Rose…
Wall
The game against West Virginia didn’t really show him at his best, but he had nine rebounds and four steals. He can contribute in other areas. Yes, his jump shot is a question mark.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Mar 27, 2010 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, we can tell that you didn't watch much of the Kentucky game
or him at all this season. He’s a much better and more willing passer than DRose.
by Reverend_Randy on Mar 27, 2010 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Ok I haven't but...
If Wall is so good it’s a wonder why he couldn’t carry his team past the Elite 8. Not to mention that he has 3 future NBA first-rounders as his teammates and that this was the first game where he had to go against an actual challenging opponent.
Rose’s team on the other hand almost won the championship, and his 2 best teammates were 2nd-rounders (Douglas-Roberts/Dorsey). Plus they had a much tougher schedule on the way there.
Whatever, we’ll see how he does in the NBA next year.
If Wall is so good it’s a wonder why he couldn’t carry his team past the Elite 8. Not to mention that he has 3 future NBA first-rounders as his teammates and that this was the first game where he had to go against an actual challenging opponent.
Because his team shot 4/32 on 3 pointers (and an 0 for 20 start), largely created on HIS drive and kicks (unlike monta who drives and rarely kicks out)
They also shot an every impressive 16/29 on free throws.
If Wall played his game w/ Morrow, Curry, Wiliams and others he might have had 15 assists. He looks to pass A LOT more than Rose or Monta.
As for your point about Roses team, there is something to be said about experience. While Cousins and Bledsoe may have more ‘talent’ than Dozier, Dorsey and Douglas Roberts. All 3 were more well rounded players then
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