Draft Lottery Probabilities

by genesic on Apr 20, 2010 4:18 PM PDT

I posted this in the comments in the front page post on the Warriors winning the coin flip with the Wizards, but I'll repost it here. In the chart, a zero with no decimals is a real zero - there's no way for New Jersey to fall past the #5 spot, since only three spots are chosen by lottery. A zero with decimals (ie 0.000) means that the probability is below the three decimal limit I set - it's possible for New Orleans to fall three spots, but it's incredibly unlikely.

Since we only have one more combination than the Wizards, we basically have the same odds of getting into the lottery (hitting the John Wall/Evan Turner sweepstakes), but we have a much better chance of staying in the top 5 (DeMarcus Cousins/Derrick Favors/Wesley Johnson). Plus, in a weird statistical quirk, we have a better chance of landing the #5 pick than they do. The complete odds for the 4/5 slots:

GSW - WAS

1) 10.4 to 10.3

2) 11.2 to 11.1

3) 12.1 to 12.0

4) 9.9 to 0

5) 37.4 to 23.8

6) 17.9 to 34.4

7) 1.5 to 8.3

8) 0 to 0.4

Full size chart: http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/2482/draftlottery.png

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Yep I noticed that when I spun the espn lottery machine last that 5 out of 10 were 5th place.

2 turns where 6th ,1 was 4th and the rest only2 or 3s.

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 20, 2010 6:12 PM PDT reply actions

fortunately, the real lottery runs nothing like the espn lottery machine

8th alias and on probation
I promise to be kinder and gentler
Probation is a slippery slope

by StinkyFingers on Apr 20, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure it runs on exactly the same statistical principals...

by freerandolph on Apr 23, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Dude, there’s no way David Stern, in a smoke-filled room in NYC full of CEOs and hookers, works the ESPN lottery machine… ;-)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 23, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions

How funny would that be to find out that’s what they’re actually doing behind the scenes?

by Missing Barry on Apr 23, 2010 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Ha !yeah,a thousand ping pong balls must be hard deal with.

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 24, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Got Evan Turner

on my first try. Lovin the lovin.

Curry/Monta/Turner/Morrow/Buike/Maggs/AR/Wright/Goose/Turiaf= Wins

by danielholl on Apr 20, 2010 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

btw

then Favors, then I got Wes. I would be happy with any. Who knows how Stern is gonna fix it this year though.

Curry/Monta/Turner/Morrow/Buike/Maggs/AR/Wright/Goose/Turiaf= Wins

by danielholl on Apr 20, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Who knows how Stern is gonna fix it this year though.

I am sure David Stern wanted to send two of his biggest ‘draft stars,’ Durant and Oden, to the booming markets of the Pacific Northwest instead of Boston or New York.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Apr 21, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions

In all fairness

Seattle and especially Portland are GREAT basketball cities, and have been for a very long time. And he knew Boston didn’t need either one of those guys because he was already orchestrating the KG for a bag of chips trade.

by LakerFan24 on Apr 22, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep it is a shame that a city like Seattle lost their team.

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 24, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

And one that looks like it could be good for a long time to come.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 25, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions

wait,

why does Washington have 0 for the 4th?

by Agent Zero on Apr 21, 2010 2:22 AM PDT reply actions

You only get a lottery shot at the top 3

by Reverend_Randy on Apr 21, 2010 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions

The Wiz got totally hosed in the Epic Coin Toss.™

(Now watch them pop #1…)

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 21, 2010 6:08 AM PDT up reply actions

So who do we pick up with the #5 pick?

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 21, 2010 7:20 AM PDT reply actions

They Pick!!!!

Me!!! I put in my application to join the draft… Check me out on the Mock Drafts… Ranked number .5 – .5 ahead of John Wall… HAHAHAHA

by mrorangesoda on Apr 21, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions

So who do we pick up with the #5 pick?

Favors, Cousins, or Wes Johnson. Whoever is left…

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Apr 21, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions

I know little about Wes Johnson. Any chance he gets picked ahead of Favors or Cousins?

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 21, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes. he’s great on paper, his game tapes are very impressive and i heard he’s a stud in pratices which may mean he has great pre draft workouts. Personally i don’t know why other than “we need a big” this guy is off our radar. I’ll promise you he’s not for GM’s. Personally i like him better than Turner but i understand that i’m all by myself in that universe so i should’ve said it. Please do not comment about it. let’s just wait and see who’s the better Pro.

if your are talking about the 5th spot i think either Johnson or Favors will fall to us. If we draft 6 or 7, we’re definetly cursed. I see a significant talent drop off after the 5th pick.

by Balance on Apr 21, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, looking just at his Yahoo page being listed at 6’7" 205 I would hope that he has the skills to be a trully good SF and not a tweener type of forward. If he has the skills then he could be the answer at SF for a long time to come so thats not so bad.

It would suck to miss out on one of the two bigs but if BW and AR come back to full health and stays that way (at least one of them) then we may be looking pretty good.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 21, 2010 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Favors, Cousins, or Wes Johnson. Whoever is left…

No way big Cuz is gonna be left for the 5 spot.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 21, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Unlikely, but not unimaginable. All it would take is:

• Two GMs who agree that Wall/Turner are the consensus #1-2;
• One GM who prefers Favors to Cousins (as a fair number of fans and observers do);
• One GM who prefers Johnson to Cousins (because he’s much more polished, because he’s more of a sure thing, because of concerns about Cousins’ character, because of a glut of big men, etc.)

Yeah, I’d rather be sitting #1 with our pick of the litter, but #5 really ain’t a bad place to be sitting in this draft. #6 is where it starts to get dodgy, imo.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 21, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions

One GM who prefers Favors to Cousins (as a fair number of fans and observers do);One GM who prefers Johnson to Cousins (because he’s much more polished, because he’s more of a sure thing, because of concerns about Cousins’ character, because of a glut of

haha, but we’re not picking ahead of ourselves, we can only be in one spot at a time.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 21, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m honestly not sure what you mean, Skep. Is your roman text meant to address your bolded text?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 21, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m honestly not sure what you mean,

Cliffsnotes version…you really think two other teams beside the Dubs are anti big to the extent that they would pass over Cuz?

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 21, 2010 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions

It would only need to be 1

Say the Timberwolves end up picking 3rd or 4th. I very much doubt they’d pick Cousins. If they pick 4th, Favors might be off the board.

by Reverend_Randy on Apr 21, 2010 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Doesn’t matter, Warriors #1 pick baby. It’s a lock. 10.4% = 100%. It’s science!

by Missing Barry on Apr 21, 2010 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I very much doubt they’d pick Cousins. If they pick 4th,

You don’t think they too have heard of pick the best player available? Is it a California secret?? Damn, I guess now they know :>)

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 21, 2010 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess they could go for Cousins

but what if they couldn’t move him.
Now their front court is KLove, Cousins and Al Jefferson.

by Reverend_Randy on Apr 26, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I’d rather be sitting #1 with our pick of the litter, but #5 really ain’t a bad place to be sitting in this draft. #6 is where it starts to get dodgy, imo.

I agree, I like Aminu but he isnt in the caliber of the other 5. Picking 6th or 7th would be a disaster….

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Apr 22, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

I have tempered my expecatations and am really good with

any of the top six guys (in my opinion Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins, Johnson, and Aminu). It would be a real kick in the groin if we have to draft at #7 and all six of those guys were taken off the board.

I am jumping on the Derrick Favors bandwagon of late….

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Apr 21, 2010 8:49 AM PDT reply actions

well with the most probable 5th pick I guess that it would be Johnson for us.

But that with the 5th pick we had a wing with Pattersons body/mental toughness/ defense combined with the shooting of Johnson and handles of Turner…oops future superstar who go #1 or #2 then Favours falls to 5th…owell :-)

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 21, 2010 11:36 AM PDT reply actions

"imagine that" meant to say.

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 21, 2010 11:37 AM PDT reply actions

GS Draft Order:

Wall → Turner → Cousins.

by DubsFan408 on Apr 21, 2010 8:46 PM PDT reply actions

At what point

do we start using some of our upper roster (you fill in that blank) as a chip to pick up another draft pick. I’ve read that detroit is open to trading their pick with us and have also expressed interest in one of our guards. I wonder if we have enough to entice Sac to give up their pick for a fast SG +company to play with Tyreke. If I’m Sac’s brass, I can imagine trading the pick for something I could live with losing if I’m the Dubs brass. (weird sentence). Just pipedreaming, but still it’s nice to imagine the possibility of bringing in Kentucky’s top 2. Pipedreaming.

Cut.

by Butterknuckles on Apr 22, 2010 2:03 PM PDT reply actions

Ha, I like that pipedream too. I’ll go you one pipedream better…

Curry
Wall
Turner
Randolph
Cousins

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 22, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

That would be a ridiculously good lineup.

by Missing Barry on Apr 22, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions

What we should reeeeeally do is...

Curry
Wall
Mags (reason below)
Randolph
Cousins….
then… then…
We tank the WHOLE season, and end up with

Curry
Wall
H. Barnes
Randolph
Cousins.

Die-nasty

Cut.

by Butterknuckles on Apr 22, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

by then...

Curry should be good enough to trade for Darco Milicic or S Jack back, and we could probably swing Kwame Brown for Wall.

Cut.

by Butterknuckles on Apr 22, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I would trade Randolph for a top 8 pick,

and I would flip Wright for a top 20 pick…..

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Apr 23, 2010 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions

What would we do for a Power Forward?

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 23, 2010 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions

….what would possibly compel you to do that?

by Missing Barry on Apr 23, 2010 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions

The prospect of Harrison Barnes in 2011?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 23, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions

I would trade Randolph for a top 8 pick,

other than maybe Wall and Cuz there’s likely no one in this draft as good as Rudolf.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Apr 23, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I would trade Randolph for a top 8 pick,

If we got Tayshaun out of it, then sure.

Cut.

by Butterknuckles on Apr 23, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Prince? Really? I’ve never understood the love that guy gets on this site. Good defender, I guess — though it’s hard to believe he’s great one when he doesn’t block shots or pick up steals at even a passable rate. Nothing special as a rebounder, passer, shooter, or scorer. And … he just turned 30, an age at which players can start to decline pretty rapidly.

I mean, if we’re talking Cousins/Favors + Prince for Randolph, I’d consider it, but not a #6-8 pick (Aldrich or Monroe or Udoh) + Prince for Randolph. I agree with Skeptic that Randolph should probably be the #3 guy in this upcoming draft. Prince really wouldn’t be much of a factor for me one way or the other.

One thing I do find semi-appealing about Prince is his expiring contract. Now if we’re talking about Monta (and no Randolph) for Prince plus the Pistons #1 … that’s pretty interesting to me. Hard to imagine it would interest the Pistons, though, when they already have Gordon and Stuckey in place.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Apr 23, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

If we’re talking Randolph, then only if the pick is <5, and we can slip Beans or Mags or preferably both in there. Prince is a knock down shooter who I think would fit into our ‘system’ of play pretty well. Also, I like the idea of a 30 year old with a ring from the 5man Pistons team that slew Kobe and Shaq in the Finals coming in and knocking some young heads around. Not sure if any of the Kentucky fraternity will really matter, but they’d have that going on too (Buike,Wall,Cousins,Prince.. all UK alum).
The appealing trade is certainly Monta straight for Prince and their pick.
The Super appealing trade is Monta + anyone but Randolph or Curry for Sac’s 1st pick and possibly a contract dump.

Cut.

by Butterknuckles on Apr 24, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd trade any draft pick over #3 if we could get good value.

Which we probably can’t. I’m just not a player beyond #3 unless Cousins is still available.
I’d trade Monta or maybe Randolph for a top 3 pick, but no less. About the only scenario I could see us getting both Wall and Cousins would involve us drafting #1 and trading Monta for #3.

by War Years Legacy on Apr 23, 2010 12:18 PM PDT reply actions

Drafting #1 and trading Monta for #3… Ahhh I wish…

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 23, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I would also be happy enough with drafting #2 and trading Monta for #3.

by Only In Fairfax on Apr 24, 2010 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I would be happy with ANYTHING and trading Monta for #3...

Unless of course we’re picking #3, in which case it’s a useless trade.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Apr 27, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

I would trade Monta for top 10 draft pick

If we could gain $11 million in cap space and get a top-10 talent that is not a bad deal. Remember, if we save the cap space then maybe we can get a decent player with a crappier contract and a draft pick from another team looking for space. My current post-5 draft crush is Jan Vesely who, if he did not have contract issues, I would want to see taken before Aminu. Plays at a higher level of competition than Aminu with higher upside. Think Kirilenko with more grit and more upside.

by pericles31081 on Apr 24, 2010 5:50 PM PDT reply actions

Hmm…Well if we land the 2nd pick, we can draft Turner. If the T-Wolves get a 4th pick, we can trade Monta + Wright for their draft pick (I’’m hoping DeMarcus Cousins). If not, Kevin Love would due fine (although I prefer Cousins, Love is a beast). I hope that comes true.

by DubsFan408 on Apr 24, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions

With 11 million in cap space we could sign… Maggette!
Cap space is good when you have competent management. I don’t want any capspace until this is Ellison’s team.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Apr 25, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions

There may need to b e cap space for this TOO be Ellison’s or anyone buying this team.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Apr 25, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

I think it is our hope that the team is transferred during the summer

It is unlikely any big signings that are not approved by the future buyer (hopefully Ellison) before the sale is completed. This probably hampers the likelihood of a trade, but it could still happen, especially if a team has cap space, but could not attract talent. Somebody may even think Magette’s contract looks good. With the choice of Rudy Gay for a max contract or Maggette at $9 mil, I’d rather have Maggette. A lot of GMs have painted themselves into a corner. We already capitilized on other teams’ stupidity before (Curry at #7), maybe we can do it again.

by pericles31081 on Apr 25, 2010 9:54 AM PDT reply actions