Dave Berri Weighs in on 2009-2010 NBA Rookie of the Year Voting: Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry- It was close

by jae on May 2, 2010 1:58 PM PDT in Links

Sports Economist and author of The Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins Dave Berri takes a look at last year's rookies. Was Sacramento Kings combo guard Tyreke Evans really the best? Was Stephen Curry a more valuable asset? It depends on how you look at it. In his analysis, it was very, very close.

Tyreke-evans-stephen-curry-warriors-kings_medium

One thing looks much more certain: we lucked out when Minnesota took Jonny Flynn off the board.

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Comments

Rec'd Thx jae, interesting info.

I would like to see Beri’s take on this years draft crop.

by Only In Fairfax on May 2, 2010 2:27 PM PDT reply actions

His take probably won’t tell you much. College PAWS/min doesn’t seem to be a worthwhile indicator of NBA success. It only tells you how productive a player was in college based on Berri’s model.

Out of the 47 drafted players in 09, Tyreke ranked 32nd & many rookies with decent WP/48 like Harden (23rd), Daye (26th) & Gibson (22nd) ranked worse than guys who turned out to be negative WP/48 players <Demarre Carroll (12th), Hansborough (15th) & Ellington (17th)>.

Meanwhile Ahmad Nivins is 4th, Lester Hudson is 5th, Thabeet is 6th, Brockman is 7th & TWill is 8th………. Curry was 9th. Not to mention if John Bryant were drafted out of Santa Clara he’d have been the 2nd highest ranked player at 19.13 PAWS/40 (only Dejuan Blair ranked higher). (for whatever reason, Berri only seems to take their final season into account).

Basically if you look at the most productive college players, they’ll be considered high. DX provides WS/40. You need to know what the Average PAWS per 40 is (10.13) & you also need to know what’s the avg WS/40 for that position:
Centers: 12.30
Power Forwards: 12.48
Small Forwards: 9.92
Shooting Guards: 8.43
Point Guards: 7.30

Of interest, John Wall’s WS/40 is 7.2, PAWS/40 is 10.03. So under Berri’s model, John Wall was roughly an average college PG in terms of what his model says productivity is.

among other potential top 10 picks (as listed by DX) (used the “current positions” listed in DX),
Cousins (1 season) WS/40=17.8; PAWS/40 © =15.63
Aldrich (3 seasons) WS/40=16.6; PAWS/40 © =14.46
Davis (2 seasons) WS/40=14.8; PAWS/40 (PF) =12.45
Favors (1 season) WS/40=13.6; PAWS/40 (PF-C) =11.34
Aminu (2 seasons) WS/40=11.5; PAWS/40 (SF-PF) =10.38
Turner (3 seasons) WS/40=9.4; PAWS/40 (SG-SF) =10.36
Monroe (2 seasons) WS/40=12; PAWS/40 (PF-C) =9.74
Johnson (3 seasons) WS/40=8.8; PAWS/40 (SF-PF) =7.73
Udoh (2 seasons) WS/40=9.4; PAWS/40 (PF-C) =7.17

If you only look at their final season as Berri did for the last draft class, all the non-freshman look better (for instance, Turner’s PAWS/40 at SG-SF is 13.56 in his Jr. season.

by homer simpson on May 2, 2010 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I was hoping...

Dave Berri would look at the ROY award.

It’s criminal that Dejuan Blair did not receive more attention.

Did Morrow get ejected???

by DrManatee on May 2, 2010 2:43 PM PDT reply actions

re: we lucked out when Minnesota took Jonny Flynn off the board.

Do you mean because Riley would have picked Flynn or because Minnesota would have picked Curry? If the former, what makes you think that Riley would have picked Flynn?

I give pressure the reach-around.

by bloodsweatndonuts on May 2, 2010 2:51 PM PDT reply actions

He wouldn’t have. I have a feeling they’d draft Hill and try their best to trade him.

by LarryLegendofOracle on May 2, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Weren't the Warriors going to trade for Amare with the #7 pick?

So anyone they drafted wouldn’t have mattered much

by IQofaWarrior on May 2, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you really think The Suns would take Bellinelli, Azubuike, Biedrins, and Wright for Amar’e without throwing anyone in there but Stephen Curry?

by LarryLegendofOracle on May 2, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, with Biedrins value very high, and the other 3’s good year, and a nice draft pick, i’m sure they would have liked that.

Stephen Curry is the future.
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by GovernorStephCurry on May 2, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I read it as, thank god the Timberwolves didn’t take Curry.

by belilaugh on May 2, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

It was a little of both. As the picks unfolded, I was worried that it would come down to Curry or Flynn. I never understood the appeal of Flynn. I guess people say the amazing vertical leap and speed forgot that it’s not a decathlon, but a basketball game. Going on the numbers, Lawson should have been picked long before Flynn, not the other way around. So far, the numbers suggest that they were right and the hype on Flynn was unfounded.

by jae on May 2, 2010 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions

That’s right. The reason Lawson was picked so low is because they all thought it was Hansborough that was responsible for the wins. Psycho T has been injured with some kind of vertigo or inner ear sickness, but when he played, he was a rebounding machine (though his TS% was very low).

by LarryLegendofOracle on May 3, 2010 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions

I think that another part of it is that people couldn’t get past a notion that Lawson and Ray Felton were the same person.

by jae on May 3, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions

My god. This guy is an angel.

by LarryLegendofOracle on May 2, 2010 3:11 PM PDT reply actions

Meh

It was obvious Reke was going to win regardless of how you put it. He never slowed down the entire year and got the entire league buzzing very early. Curry only did so in the 2nd half of the year , add that together with the support of the media and you have an almost impossible chance of getting ROY if your Curry

Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?

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by dubzfan on May 2, 2010 6:06 PM PDT reply actions

I really don't think it was close, I mean 100 votes is 100 votes.....

Evans had it in the bag when Kevin Martin went down. I’m definitely glad you posted this Jae, but we shouldn’t still be talking about ROY. It’s starting to make it seem like we are sore losers or something! I wish Steph would have won the award, and surprised everybody, but it didn’t work out that way. Evans was the better rookie for the whole year, and that’s why he won ROY, Hopefully we have the better rookie, but only time will tell wich rookies will have the better career..

by Lops85 on May 2, 2010 7:03 PM PDT reply actions

I don’t really care who won. I’m more intrigued that it was so close statistically. I thought it was interesting that after the back and forth with Kings fans, that an actual analysis indicated that the performance was (as I had voiced) very, very close. The notion that Evans was better for the whole year isn’t really clear either. Evans scored more points and that’s what most fans (an the media are just paid fans) pay attention to. Evans was better at the beginning, Curry better at the end and on balance, it was about as close to a statistical tie as you’re likely to find.

by jae on May 2, 2010 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions

It wasn't 100 VOTES

It was 100 POINTS.

Votes are worth different points depending on what rank you give someone.

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by LostHawkGSW on May 2, 2010 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions

It's the post-season, man.

There’s nothing to talk about in the world of the Warriors.

by Reverend_Randy on May 2, 2010 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you guys remember when Stephen Curry said that he would win ROY? God, I can’t believe he lied to us.

Did Morrow get ejected???

by DrManatee on May 2, 2010 10:27 PM PDT reply actions

Re-draft anyone?

LET’S GET A DO-OVER.

Did Morrow get ejected???

by DrManatee on May 2, 2010 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions

WWENBA

It’s Rigged. I love watching the Warriors but this is why I haven’t watched a single NBA playoff game this year. Tyreke was featured at the Rookie Challenge because Stern already had him picked out to be ROY. I said it then and I stick by it now.

Even still, Evans probably did deserve the award…

"Don't wear socks in the rain."

by cybermaldonado on May 2, 2010 11:25 PM PDT reply actions