Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies II: Evaluating Curry and his Guys

DON NELSON DOESN'T PLAY ROOKIES II

Last off-season I brought you guys the ground breaking and 7th most popular fan post of all time, An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies. If you haven't read that piece you should take the time to read the study that looked backed at EVERY single rookie Don Nelson has coached because it serves as the basis for this article. The study destroyed the myth that Nelson doesn't play rookies based on an irrational hatred but the trends that emerged also suggested the playing time Nellie doled out to players during their rookie and sophomore seasons correlated with the career quality of the player. In this article, I will apply the findings from the previous study to create realistic expectations for the young guys, what the Warriors should do with each young player, and upside/downside comparisons based on career MPG, projected career quality, and advanced statistics from basketball-reference.com (links provided).

Let's start with the 1st year guys and see what their rookie seasons tell us. According to the findings of the initial study players with multiple All*Star appearances played rotation minutes right away under Nellie averaging 27 MPG and 65 games started (GS) out of 71 games played (GP) in their rookie seasons. It also showed that players who made one All*Star team averaged only 15 MPG, 14 GS, 61 GP compared to non-All*Star players who averaged 11 MPG, 4 GS, 32 GP. The first season will not tell us for sure whether a player will become an All*Star or NBA journeyman (the 2nd season is more critical) but it does provide a basis to weed out those without All*Star potential.

Table of Past Nellie Rookies

Average of all Nellie rookies' MPG, GS, and GP according career quality (All*Star, Years, MPG).

Chris Hunter

Rookie: 13.1 mpg/9 started/60 games

It looks like Hunter will be able to stick around the NBA as a 3rd center. His rookie year 13.1 mpg and 9gs in 60gp is almost an exact match of Nelson rookies who went on to have 5-9 year NBA careers (12.14mpg/8.23gs/45.76gp) but his MPG, GS, and GP fall short of the 1x All*Star averages but they are within range. Hunter will likely never become a rotation player, much less an All*Star, considering that he was unable to become a constant in the rotation despite Biedrins, Randolph, Wright, and Turiaf missing significant time. All he had to do was beat out 6'6" Corey Maggette for front court minutes and he failed miserably due to his lack of offense and poor rebounding. Hopefully, this assessment isn't earth shattering news to any Dub fan.

What to do with Hunter?

Let him walk and use his roster spot to try to find another diamond in the rough a la Watson, Buike, Williams, and Tolliver. We know he's a bum so no need to waste more time or dollars on a known commodity, especially someone who is barely mediocre.

Upside: Josh Powell (12.6 mpg) - Leave the Dubs and get a ring riding the pine.
Downside: Rob Kurz (11.1 mpg) - Leave the Dubs and become NBA D-League 2nd Team.

Reggie Williams

Rookie: 32.6 mpg/10 starts/24 games

People may disregard Williams' MPG and starts due to the injuries the Warriors had late in the season, but Williams still had to beat out Anthony Morrow and CJ Watson for minutes. His 32 MPG make him a lock to be an NBA rotation player for the next 10 years and if you prorate his GS over 82 games, his 34 games started is well over the 14 games started that one time All*Stars averaged in their rookie seasons. Of the 6 Nelson rookies who have averaged over 30 mpg, ALL have gone on to average 30+ mpg for their careers. However, all those rookies did it over the course of a full season compared to 24 games for Williams so the findings may not directly apply given the smaller sample size. Even then the Warriors were wise to sign Williams for next season because his MPG suggest there is a chance he could become an All*Star level player unlike say.... Chris Hunter. Even if Williams never sniffs an All*Star game he should have a long career as there are plenty of teams that can use a SG/SF who can handle the rock, take care of the ball (1.3 TOper36), and score efficiently (58.8 TS%). The best thing is most teams use 1st round picks to get those type of returns.

What to do with Williams?

Give him time in summer league and see what he can do for a full season with a healthy roster. Will he be able to get time playing time when Buike, Maggs, Ellis, Curry and potentially Morrow and/or a rookie swingman are available for Nellie to use? Reggie did well in the minutes he played, but he also did it without having to look over his shoulder. I doubt he was worried by Deaven George. He's signed for next season and I would be very comfortable with Reggie taking over Morrow's spot on the team if Morrow becomes too expensive or get something good in a trade.

Upside: Wally Szczerbiak (30.8 mpg) - Good player who made 1 All*Star game next to a HOF player.
Downside: Chris Mills (30.4 mpg) - Solid NBA wingman.

Stephen Curry

Rookie: 36.2 mpg/77 starts/80 games

Marques Johnson. Mitch Richmond. Tim Hardaway. Billy Owens. Latrell Sprewell. Chris Webber.

Read that list and that's basically the best players Nelson has ever coached minus Dirk, Moncrief, and English. All those players became instant starters in their rookie years, all those players went on to multiple All*Star games except for Billy Owens, and all those players played FEWER minutes per game than Curry! We just got da gif of uh sue pah stah thanks to Nellie, Riley, or whoever you think is calling the shots. He's so good people around the league are asking, "How great will Curry be?" instead of "Can he be great?" Everyone has hopped onto the baby faced Curry's Radio Flyer so you know all the stats and how they compare to the greats. Just note that Don Nelson... yes that Don Nelson, who supposedly held back Wright, Belinelli, and Randolph in the past gave Curry 36 mpg and started him for 77 of the 80 games Curry played in his rookie season.

What to do with Curry?

Give the young guy complete control of the team in his Sophomore season. In order to for the Warriors to be the best they can be we need the ball in the hands of our smartest player as much as possible. We don't need him to be our leading scorer (that's what Monta is for), but we need him leading our scorers. If Monta is resistant to giving up control of the offense and reverting back to the uber-effcient sidekick he was with BD then we need to think about shipping him out. Curry has the potential to be a great PG but he needs to improve his 24% AST% which is good but not great. The upper tier PGs are usually above 35% and the best passers alive (Nash & Paul) are at 40% or more.

Upside: Steve Nash (31 mpg) - It's so cliché, but so true. He could be Nash with better rebounding and steals.
Downside: Mike Bibby (35.3 mpg) - Starting PG for playoff teams but never an All*Star.

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Next we move onto the Sophomores. This is the make or break year for all Nellie young players as the past study showed that by the time a player finished his sophomore season, they played around the same minutes per game unde Nellie as they do for the rest of their careers. After exciting rookie seasons from Morrow and Randolph many had visions of Reggie Miller and Kevin Garnett. It's easy for a rookie to make that type of an impression on fans because they often get matched up against reserves and due to their youth and exuberance they make spectacular plays that stick out in our minds. Fans often get so caught up in the shiny new toy, we forget that consistency is the key to becoming a great player. This is why the sophomore year is so important. This is where we get to see if the player put in the time and/or made the mental adjustments in the off-season in order to finally harness the untapped potential and turn it into consistent production. So what does the performance of Morrow and Randolph tell us?

Table of Past Nellie Sophomores

Average of all players' 2nd year MPG, GS, and GP after rookie year under Nellie according career quality
(All*Star, Years, MPG).

Anthony Morrow

Rookie: 22.6 mpg/17 starts/67 games

Soph: 29.2 mpg/37 starts/69 games

After Anthony Morrow's rookie season he played himself into the rotation and what I called the "orange tier" which projected that he could become a potential All*Star player similar to Reggie Williams this year. Morrow's rookie season as an UDFA essentially gave him a solid base to build upon for his second season if he were to ever make the "leap"and become an All*Star player. He improved, but not enough to project future greatness. Morrow increased his MPG (22.6 to 29.2), GP (67 to 69), and GS (17 to 37) but those numbers fall short of the multiple All*Star averages of 34 MPG and 80 starts and even a lone All*Star appearance on Sunday (Wally Szczerbiak did it) seems unlikely as Morrow was below the GS average of past one time All*Stars under Nellie (54 GS/76 GP). None of this should be a surprise as Morrow showed the same game from his rookie season: he is an exceptional shooter who can rebound some, but otherwise his game and athleticism is limited. From his playing time it looks like Morrow will never be an All*Star but he will enjoy a long NBA career playing 19-29 mpg as the sharp shooter that every championship teams needs to spread the floor.

What should we do with Morrow?

As a RFA Morrow is a keeper if he can be kept at a reasonable price (~3 mill/year). Any more than that and we should consider a sign and trade. Morrow is great at shooting 3s but Buike, Williams, Curry, and Monta are legitimate 3 point threats who offer more on the court (pentration, passing, defense, etc). When you factor in his projected role against the potentially smaller salary cap that could be imposed by the up coming CBA, it doesn't make much sense to commit a ton of salary to our 5th best guard.

Upside: Mike Miller (32.4 mpg) - 3 point shooter who has developed an all-around game.
Downside: Anthony Morrow (26 mpg) - Even if he never improves, his shooting % (FG/3pt/FT) is historically great and has a place in the league (Steve Kerr is only other player with TS% > 55% and 3pt FG% > 45% with a minimum of 10 3PM for their careers).

Anthony Randolph

Rookie: 17.9 mpg/22 starts/63 games

Soph: 22.7 mpg/8 starts/33 games

Thanks to Randolph's early season ending injury we're just as confused and intrigued by his potential as we were after his rookie season. AR looked as if he would make "the leap" after an off-season of hype regarding his workouts, dominant Vegas performance, and a Team USA invite but once the season began Randolph continued right where he left off in his rookie season with wild and inconsistent play that drove Nellie mad. If you take Randolph's stats at face value his 22 MPG and 8 games started (GS) in 33 games played do not suggest the All*Star greatness that many Warrior fans believe he is destined for. Instead the numbers suggest he'll be a solid NBA rotation player who will average between 19-29 mpg and stick around for the next decade. Even if you prorate his GS over 82 games to compensate for his injury, the resulting 20 GS would fall far below those expectations of what multiple time All*Stars averaged in their 2nd seasons (34 MPG/80 GS) and even shy of those who appeared in only ONE All*Star game (24 MPG/54 GS). Despite all our hopes, it seems like Randolph won't become the superstar player we imagined after his rookie campaign unless Randolph is Alex English 2.0, a HOFer who averaged 10 and 18 mpg in his first two seasons under Nellie.

Despite the numbers and history, many Randolph supporters will say his play improved before his season ending injury and that his final numbers would be different if he were healthy. I would agree with that assessment as Randolph was playing more in control, focusing on rebounding, passing, and getting to the rim which drew the praise of Nellie. So let me put on my rose colored glasses and make some statistical assumptions to see if Randolph's numbers could potentially match that of past Nellie coached All*Stars. If Randolph had started every game for the rest of the season that would put him at 57 games started in 82 games (49+8) which is plausible as Randolph started 7 out the last 8 games he played in. However, the 57 GS only puts Randolph in the range of players who made one All*Star appearance. If MPG was the sole indicator of career quality then Randolph would have needed to play 40 minutes a night to reach the 34 MPG average of past multiple time All*Stars, which is possible assuming foul rate is the only thing that would limit his playing time (4.5 fouls per 36 minutes). So for you Randolph lovers if you believe those two things would have happened had he not gotten injured then Randolph has a good chance at being an All*Star player, but when I take off my rose colored glasses and replace them with my -9.75 OD/-9.25 OS Versace frames I don't see greatness for Randolph. He just didn't earn enough minutes and starts in the games he was available to play in. When it's all said and done I think he will be very good big man if he accepts his role with the best possible outcome being one All*Star appearance.

What should we do with Randolph?

After his rookie season, I considered Randolph as "untouchable" but now I wouldn't mind making him trade bait. Many people see Randolph as a Lamar Odom type player, but while Randolph has the handles and rebounding ability, he just doesn't have the play making ability of Odom, who posted a 20% AST rate in his rookie year or even that of KG and Webber who were in double figures AST% in their rookie seasons (10.6% and 17.1% respectively vs Randolph's 6.8% rookie year or 8.5% soph season). He also has no semblance of a back to the basket game and lacks the desire and/or coaching to develop one. Instead he is fixated on improving his 32% jumpshot from mid-range (via hoopdata) to go with his face up game. Simply put Randolph's offensive game is just too far behind and/or starting off in the wrong direction (Thanks, Nellie)  to ever become a go to player.

As bad as Randolph is on offense he is truly exceptional on defense. Only David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Marcus Camby, Ben Wallace, Kelvin Cato, and Ervin Johnson have averaged TRB% > 15, STL% > 1.5, and BLK% > 4 while playing at least 18 mpg for their careers. Randolph hasn't shown he can score in the post like the Admiral or the Dream (though they spent 4 years in college refining their post game) so if he wanted to be a contributing member of a championship team I would tell Randolph to start watching tapes of "The Worm" Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace. By focusing all his effort on rebounding and defense he could buck the history of past Nellie rookies and become a multiple time All*Star.

If I were running the Dubs I would hold onto Randolph for the remainder of his rookie contract unless Chris Bosh or Al Jefferson were involved (Amare and Boozer are too old). Until that day arrives (I wouldn't hold my breath) the Dubs need to hire a defensive minded coach to unleash Randolph's defensive potential and draft a young big man to pair with Randolph who can serve as the focal point on offense (Hello, DeMarcus Cousins).

Upside: Marcus Camby (30.7 mpg) - Athletic and skinny big man who can run the floor and wrecks havoc on defense due to length, speed, and agility. Never developed as a go to scorer, but has a mid range jump shot.
Downside: Ervin Johnson (20.1 mpg) - The complete opposite of Randolph visually, but metrics wise they're pretty similar.

Conclusion

Should he stay or should he go?

So what did applying the knowledge from the first article tell us?

Chris Hunter will be 3rd string center for the rest of his career.
Reggie Williams is a legit NBA player and has All*Star potential.
Stephen Curry will likely play in multiple All*Star games.
Anthony Morrow will be a 3 point threat for a long time as part of a NBA rotation.
Anthony Randolph will most likely never be an All*Star player, but he can be an elite defender.

The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming a very good team. If the ping pong balls fall their way and they hit another home run in the draft they could turn the team around in a hurry. This year the Dubs drafted an All*Star in Curry, found another D-League gem in Williams, and established Morrow and Randolph as NBA rotation players. Those guys along with Ellis, Buike, Maggette, Biedrins, and Turiaf would be rotation players on 29 other teams and each player could fit a defined role on a Championship team. In order to become a Championship team though the Dubs need two things to happen. One of them is finding another young superstar to pair with Stephen Curry so they could battle duos like Roy/Aldridge and Durant/Westbrook and one man wrecking crews in LBJ and Dwight Howard.

The other thing the Dubs need to become a Championship team has to do with the Winningest Coach of All-Time, Don Nelson. First off, Nelson's reputation as a coach who unjustly doesn't play rookies should take another hit. Thanks to Curry we were reminded of what a future All*Star looks like and it provides the perfect contrast to Anthony Randolph's rookie year. Curry made the All-Rookie 1st team and played more MPG than every rookie ever under Nellie, while Randolph was inconsistent thus earning fewer minutes. Although Nelson was likely right that Randolph was not ready for more minutes, it doesn't mean Nellie is the right coach for the Warriors anymore. Give credit to Nellie for getting this team to play hard almost every night, but in order for Curry and his Guys to take the next step they need a coach who values defense and can teach it to them. The ultimate goal is to win a championship and if Don Nelson hasn't been able to even reach the NBA finals after 3+ decades he needs to go.....whether he plays rookies or not.

Thanks for the "Rec"!