So, it seems like GSOM is pretty divided on whether it's worth trading Randolph or not. Personally, I fall into the faction of "vomits every time Randolph and trade are in the same sentence and within six words of each other". My reasons are the same as many of those who share my sentiment so I won't rehash them. They revolve mostly around ridiculous potential but I understand both sides of the argument.
This post isn't to incite a discussion on whether or not we should try to trade Randolph. This post is to calm down the keep AR faction and possibly disappoint the ship him for the 4th pick proponents. I know the ESPN's story cited multiple sources, but most of us have noted that ESPN has a habit of citing TK as a source. I'm not calling TK out as a bad journalist. In fact, I enjoy reading his pieces and think he's great at what he does. His blog does specifically what a blog is supposed to do which is incite conversation. However, when he posts a rumor, he himself admits that there is not much veracity to it. His blogs should be treated as talking points and not as news reporting.
So, for all my fellow Randolph supporters, I offer you and exercise in the Anatomy of a typical TK trade rumor. I tried diving into the mind of TK to come up with my own rumor to demonstrate. If ESPN indeed is using TK as one of its sources for this rumor, you can calm down and sleep well tonight. Nothing will come of it.
The TK trade rumor is a five play act:Act I: The Shout
Wherein he uses an unnecessarily sensationalist headline to get your undivided attention.
Act II: The Dance
Wherein he uses words such as "speculative" and "caveat" and "guessing" to dance his way around full culpability if the rumor proves to be false and even invites criticism.
"It appears the Warriors and Nets are in discussion to swap some young players. The timing seems pretty off with an impending sale except I'm guessing the timing couldn't be more perfect. It's speculative but the sale process is not progressing as fast as the fans have been clamoring for. Yes Riley will run the draft. Yes Nellie will open day one as coach. Yes Rowell will cackle evilly. And yes, Warriors fans the world over will cry. Sorry, but get used to it. The team will not change ownership until the end of the year I'm guessing.
One huge caveat. Could Larry Ellison, who is not a spring chicken anymore, get desperate in his one last bid to own that which he has wanted for the last two decades and eclipse the $400M mark? Possibly, but my guess is that he won't budge a penny from $315M and the deal will linger into December. (Remember, Mr. Ellison didn't become Mr. Ellison by compromising in negotiations.)
Anyways I digress. Why is the timing perfect to ship out Curry? Because Nellie, Riley, and Rowell are all auditioning for their jobs beyond the season. If the sale doesn't happen by August which I'm guessing it won't, I believe the chances of a FO purge are infinitesimal. If the sale happens in December, Riley, Nellie, and Rowell will have precisely four months to finish off the season and win their jobs back."
Act III: The Devaluation
Wherein he severely undervalues the Warrior in the trade rumor while severely pumping up the abilities of the player we'd receive to make the rumor more palatable.
"If you had four months to audition to keep your job, would you run with the second year player with all the marketing hype in the world who is still learning to play the PG position? Or would you go with a more seasoned veteran who has proven to be capable helming a team? Harris may have his faults, and he may be on a losing team. But can you really blame him for the Nets record? The team is abysmal. Stick Lebron James on the Nets and the win needle probably won't move that much North. Harris has all the skills you want in a point guard: court vision, quick hands, excellent decision making. Bonus for any Nellie team: he has speed in spades.
Why would the Warriors trade Curry? Curry had a fantastic rookie season. He put up ungodly numbers in April. But the fact is, he is still learning to play PG. (Remember, he played off the ball mostly at Davidson.) How long will it take Curry to learn all the necessary PG skills to helm a team. One year? Two years? Ten years? Nellie, Riley, and Rowell have four months. The time table doesn't fit. Curry is still learning to be a floor general and is limited athletically. Harris is already a floor general with nearly elite athleticism. If you had four months to keep your job, who would you take under your employment? Harris is the obvious choice."
Act IV: The Proposal
Wherein he uses ESPN trade machine and illogical logic to develop a true to life NBA trade rumor.
"So here are a few ways this can and will go down.
Curry for Harris straight up: Don't need to debate the merits of this. Please see above.
Curry, Randolph, and the 6th pick for Harris and the 3rd pick: Why would the Warriors do it? They get Curry and banish Randolph who has been in Nellie's dog house so long, he's painted the walls and moved in a dresser. They also get a chance at Favors or Cousins. Why would the Nets do it? Simple. when you are as short on talent as the Nets are, you bring in as many young players with potential as possible in the hopes that some will stick.
Curry and the 6th pick for Harris and Yi: Why would the Warriors do it? Well, Curry for Harris swap is a wash. So really it becomes, 6th pick for Yi. Can anybody unequivocally say that after Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins, and Johnson, there is a player better than Yi? Tough to call. Why would the Nets do it? Again, they need to stock pile young talent.
Act V: The Last Dance
Wherein he closes his trade rumor by again using noncommittal language while simultaneously inviting criticism so that when he gets it, he can believe it's not unwanted criticism.
"So there you have it. Not saying it's not going to happen. Not saying it is going to happen. If I had to put money on it, I'd bet that Curry and Randolph are out by mid July so that Harris can run training camp and Yi can get accustomed to his spot on the bench. I know that Warriors fans view Curry as the Messiah. I said it before, and I'll say it again. He's not, and you should sell your Curry jersey on ebay while it still has value. When the trade goes down you can thank me, or call me an idiot for prophesizing it. Regardless, here's a preemptive "I told you so". If it doesn't happen, I'll relish being called an idiot for the next season as I'm sure I will be."
There you have it. A TK trade rumor special. Check out the blog post below and make some not so far out assumptions about ESPN's sources and if you're a Randolph fan, you'll sleep well tonight like I will.