NBA Free Agency 2010, Day 1: It's kind of like eating leftovers before the main course
by olympicmike on Jul 1, 2010 4:25 PM PDT
in NBA
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PrintIt's finally here!! The 2010 free agency period that teams have been preparing for for years now is upon us. General managers around the league have been dumping long term contracts and dreaming of writing big checks on this golden day since the first time someone noticed that King James, Bosh, Wade and company would all be hitting the market at the same time. The expectation was that since LeBron was the best player available he would likely be the first to sign, and shortly after the rejected suitors would all scramble for the sloppy seconds. Interestingly enough as day one winds down the big winners are Rudy Gay ($81.6 million over 5 years) and John Salmons ($39 million over 5 years). Hmm...
"You wanna pay me how much?"
So what is the strategy here? Are these smaller market teams really worried about the teams with tons of cap space swooping in and signing their players? When you consider that the Hawks have already offered Joe Johnson a five year max deal (presumably saving the sixth year as a bargaining chip) it sure seems like this relatively young free agent period is off to a strange start. I mean, who ever decided that Joe Johnson was worth a max deal in the first place? I think the whole idea started when someone asked what the disappointed teams might do with all their unused cap space. So when exactly did NBA free agency 2010 get turned upside-down?
Well with these bloated contracts being handed out and the shadow of a possible 2011 lockout looming it is making for a very strange financial landscape around the league. What exactly if fair market value for an NBA player? Right now, I have no idea. Get back to me when the dust settles.
It kind of makes you glad that our beloved franchise is a ship without a captain at the moment. Hopefully the new owner and the management team he assembles is able to make sense of all this next year. I certainly wouldn't trust our current crew with an open checkbook right now. We might end up extending Anthony Morrow for a max deal or signing Jeremy Lin with the MLE.
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I'll say this about Milwaukee
there one of the few teams out there that seem “complete” now, at least, in the East.
Jennings
Salmons
Maggs
Gooden
Bogut
Pretty good mix of veterans and young talent in Jennings in Bogut. I think they have a decent shot at finishing 3rd or 4th in the conference.
Salmons
also seems to be one of those rare guys who develops into a decent player at a late age. He really didn’t start putting up numbers until age 27.
don't you know
if you’re over 23 you no longer have the potential to develop
Randolph is a garbage-point collector and Wright is probably never going to be an NBA starter, not JONeal at all.
LarryLegendofOracle
by dso on Jul 1, 2010 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha
I can’t get enough of people tossing around oversimplifications to make others look foolish. If the data shows that on average you reach your full potential by age 25 wouldn’t that be a good rule of thumb to follow when making personnel decisions? Sure, you could find lots of exceptions. You could find cases where a guy maxes out at 23 or 27, but does that make it silly to use the odds in your favor? You can make a bad bet and win every once in a while, but why? If I was a GM I’d take every advantage I could get, and that includes using statistical analysis to tell me if it’s reasonable to expect a guy in his mid-twenties to improve significantly.
Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^
by olympicmike on Jul 1, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
we're kinda saying the same thing
except you’re being smart/analytical while i’m being sarcastic and subtly referring back to all the smack-talk regarding udoh’s drafting
Randolph is a garbage-point collector and Wright is probably never going to be an NBA starter, not JONeal at all.
LarryLegendofOracle
by dso on Jul 1, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you sure that you're saying the same thing?
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions
i'm getting kinda confused too
if you mean am i serious about my earlier statement, then no i’m not. I was trying to be obviously facetious by being overly extreme but I guess my position was too close to the posting norm.
Randolph is a garbage-point collector and Wright is probably never going to be an NBA starter, not JONeal at all.
LarryLegendofOracle
by dso on Jul 1, 2010 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh okay
it can be tough to tell if someone is being sarcastic over the internet, so I actually did misunderstand you. Carry on.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions
does that make it silly to use the odds in your favor?
Odds… what are those again? If they’re like statistics, then NO THANK YOU!!!!
Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.
-randolphforpresident
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jul 1, 2010 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah...
I haven’t really looked closely at their roster lately but you are right. They look well balanced on paper. If Jennings can really bloom in the next couple years they could be very good. Despite indirectly insulting him in the article I actually really like Salmons. I’m surprised at his contract considering his age, but he should definitely contribute on the team.
Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^
Actually, a strong offensive team but very weak defensively
I dont see them as top 3 or 4. Celtics, Magic, probably Miami, Chicago are still better teams then the bucks. They are a playoff team but unless these guys start playing a strong team defense, I doubt they can stand a chance against the big 4.
Waaaarriors
With Skiles coaching and Bogut healthy, they’ll be a strong defensive team. Jennings and Salmons are both above average and Bogut is an elite defender. Gooden will probably hurt this team more than he helps since he’s a pretty poor inside defender and an inefficient scorer. 5/32 isn’t really an overpay for Gooden, but it’s a lot of years for a guy who is joining his ninth team in nine seasons.
Monta Ellis's #1 Fan!!!
It’ll defeintely be interesting to see how these players mesh. I think Maggette might be the hardest to get in there, and I acutally wouldn’t be surprised to see Delfino starting the season at starting SF.
Having said that, $32 mil for Drew Gooden!?!?!? Are you kidding me??? I think we have our first 2015 expiring contract to look forward to.
Glad you qualified your statement
at least, in the East.
I don’t know what this really means. I think if the Warriors were in the East and healthy they’d be right there in the mix.
Bench is kinda funky though
LRMBAM, Delfino, Ilyasova, Chris Douglas Roberts… they all kinda play the same position. Still, a talented enough bunch of players.
I think they have a decent shot at finishing 3rd or 4th in the conference.
and leading the league in fouls drawn going to the rim.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jul 1, 2010 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope we sign
I think the two players I like for our MLE are Travis Outlaw and Dorell Wright. For our bi-annual exception, I would like either Jerry Stackhouse or Keith Bogans. Hopefully, these players remain unsigned as we need some wing players who can play defense.
Waaaarriors
I agree, except for the Stackhouse part
Outlaw would be a good pickup to fit right into the 3 spot right away, and Wright could maybe develop into a solid player (still only 24 with a lot of talent). Bogans could really help defensively against bigger 2’s.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the worst franchise in the NBA.
They give away Gasol for free to the Lakers (causing their dynasty) because he “cost too much”, then acquire Zeebo for the same money that Gasol was, then sign Rudy Gay to an Arenas-esque deal? Memphis you are killing me. You gave the Lakers a dynasty because Gasol cost too much then you sign Rudy Gay to a larger deal? WTF man?
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 5:54 PM PDT reply actions
Isn’t it nice to see a team making front-office decisions as bad as the Warriors?
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Jul 1, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Isn’t it nice to see a team making front-office decisions as bad as the Warriors?
and even worse? at least ours were made in a strong economy not during a double dip recession.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jul 1, 2010 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Rudy Gay's deal just became the worst contract in all of sport
R U freakin kidding me? They now make Maggette’s contract look cheap. Job well done!!WTF were they thinking. Heck we need a SF bu thats a complete joke. Its great to be Rudy but talk about over paying a player. WOW!
Set a record by getting banned for the 8th time!
After rehab I saw the light and promise to be kinder and gentler!
Probation is a very slippery slope!
And it will soon be replaced as the worst contract in sports with the Joe Johnson signing
Because talent? You want to add a guy like boozer because hes talented? I’m sorry i just don’t see that as a valid reason. -- fffindeed
I don't know
at least Joe Johnson is an all star. Paying Rudy Gay $16 M a year (on average) is like paying Mo Williams that.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Mo Williams is better than Rudy Gay.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't even know, man
I’d rather have Mo Williams with his current contract, but Mo Williams is pretty terrible.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude Mo is a good scorer. Very efficient.
Bad player outside of that though. Rudy Gay isn’t good at anything. Inefficient scorer, bad defender, terrible rebounder, black hole passer, yet he got the max. The least qualified player to ever get a max contract in league history.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
On one hand I understand that JJ is a better player and thus maybe worth more money
but around $119 million? Even if gay is less worthy of $80 million, but man I would not want to have to pay JJ around $20 million for that 5th and 6th year when he will be 32 and 33 years old. At least there would be a chance to trade Gay given the fact less years and someone would be more willing to gamble on his youth.
Because talent? You want to add a guy like boozer because hes talented? I’m sorry i just don’t see that as a valid reason. -- fffindeed
by wallywagon11 on Jul 1, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
They're both horrible contracts
I think JJ’s would give you slightly more bang for your buck.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 2, 2010 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally disagree
because in that 4th and 5th year I would think Gay could very well be a better player and Gay will cost less.
Because talent? You want to add a guy like boozer because hes talented? I’m sorry i just don’t see that as a valid reason. -- fffindeed
Well
you know what you get out of Joe Johnson- he’s an All Star, and he’ll probably continue to be a good player for a few years. Even if you get 2-3 really overpaid years, at least you’re getting 3-4 slightly overpaid years. With Gay, you’d be lucky to get that because he isn’t good right now. You’re basically paying Gay $16 M a year based on the fact that he might turn into a decent-good player in a couple years.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 3, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
My personal favorite FA just got signed
Reports coming out that Amir Johnson is resigning with the Raptors for 5 years/34 million. More than I thought he’d get, even though it’s still a little less than he’s actually worth. He’s a MUCH better value than Gooden who signed a similar deal.
Monta Ellis's #1 Fan!!!
The Rudy Gay contract is pretty laughable
He’s going to get paid more yearly, than LeBron was paid on his last contract. That’s crazy. I understand that he’s only 23 and has a lot of upside, but that is insane. He averaged about 20 and 6 last year. J-Rich and Monta both signed something for something like 6 years for 66 million, and they were both better than Gay (Monta still is) at the time that they signed their contracts. I think this may come back to haunt them. No way they are going to find any takers if they decide they don’t want him anymore. Why the heck would they sign him to that huge of a contract, when they just drafted Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez this year, and they also drafted Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll last year? Makes no sense. Are they hoping Mayo moves to point guard? Even then, there is a glut on the wings. Really stupid decision making on their part.
Well look at you, OM
All on the front page and stuff. Nice to see it.
One of the most amazing things about spending spree on mediocrity is that it has a very real chance of hurting the owners’ case during CBA negotiations next summer. How can they argue that players should be paid less when they are the ones dumping hordes of cash at the feet of all these guys that will never sniff an All-Star game? What the hell are they thinking?
Are GMs around the league colluding to lower the bar so far that they’d have to be Chris Wallace-bad before they got fired? Oh wait, Chris Wallace just got a new contract, and then promptly gave Rudy Gay $82 mil, while also not offering Ronnie Brewer—who just a few months ago they traded a future 1st rounder for—the QO, effectively letting him leave for nothing. My head hurts.
by ivanbe on Jul 1, 2010 7:12 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks man.
Yeah, I’m baffled. It’s like these GMs just can’t help themselves. Rudy Gay is a decent player who still has some upside, but he hasn’t done anything that should make you think you can build a franchise around him. It’s like they bought into their own marketing. Somebody in the marketing department has to send a memo over to the front office and let them know that Gay isn’t nearly as awesome as they’ve been making him out to be while trying to sell tickets.
Pretty much the same thing can be said of Joe Johnson. The guy is good, but really? What on earth makes them think he’s worth the highest amount of money you are allowed to pay a player in the NBA? He has a very high skill level, but as far as production goes he’s not really special at anything. He can score at a pretty good rate with almost average efficiency. He can distribute well for an off-guard. He doesn’t get to the line all that much. I don’t know, when all the impressive looking plays fade away there just isn’t anything there that says “franchise player.”
Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^
What on earth makes them think he’s worth the highest amount of money you are allowed to pay a player in the NBA?
That’s a very good question. Shouldn’t the highest salary be for only the best player then work down from there?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jul 1, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Shouldn’t the highest salary be for only the best player then work down from there?
So the highest paid in the NBA would be:
1. Kobe
2. Monta
3. LaBron
Derrick Coleman is my power animal.
by bloodsweatndonuts on Jul 2, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Throw in a moped, and it's a done deal.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 2, 2010 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah Rudy Gay is an average player.
And Joe Johnson is a good player. Paying them like Lebron James and Dwight Howard just doesn’t make sense. However, it is the worst FO in pro sports (Grizzlies) who continue making baffling decisions that hinder the league (Gasol trade).
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions
How else are teams with fan smaller fan bases going to keep their players?
There would be no way the Hawks keep Johnson if they just said, “Nope, sorry. WEedon’t offer you competent ownership, a loyal fanbase, or a lot of exposure. Sure we have lots of money, but we won’t give it to you. Interested in staying?” That’s their only bargaining chip.
Sure, Gay and Johnson aren’t worth those types of contracts, but how else would teams like the Grizzlies and the Hawks convince their guys to stay with the teams? They had to overpay them to convince them to stay. I even remember when we signed Maggette, many people on this very site said we had to overpay for free agents to convince them to sign with us.
by TheDaydreamer on Jul 1, 2010 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, Gay and Johnson aren’t worth those types of contracts, but how else would teams like the Grizzlies and the Hawks convince their guys to stay with the teams? They had to overpay them to convince them to stay. I even remember when we signed Maggette, many people on this very site said we had to overpay for free agents to convince them to sign with us.
And how well did overpaying Maggette (or Fisher when we signed him, or Fortson [sign and trade acquisition] when we got him) work out? Seems to me that the but we have to overpay angle seems to lead to losing, something that can be done for far less. Investing too much for too little won’t work. If you can’t secure talent on the free agent market without paying too much, you should use your cap space in other ways. There are other ways to build a team.
I never said the Maggette contract was a good one.
I said , when the contract was signed, many people from GSOM defended the contract, saying we needed to overpay free agents to sign them. I thought Maggette’s style was a bad fit for the team and that we should have kept the money, but here at this very site, many people said we needed to overpay him.
by TheDaydreamer on Jul 1, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2008/7/23/577525/you-keep-asking-why-well-h#7596384
by TheDaydreamer on Jul 2, 2010 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
If you want to include a link, don’t do it in the title line.
by jae on Jul 2, 2010 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Good question...
The problem is that every time one of these small market teams overpays a player they limit their own ability to remain competitive moving forward and set a precedent that trickles down through the entire league. I really have no idea how these agent and GMs are establishing what is a fair market value for these players. So are they supposed to just let him walk? Well, maybe. I’d say offer him a fair deal and if someone is willing to overpay then you have to let him go. Let someone else make that mistake. It hurt when Baron left, but does anyone want to be paying him $13mil, $13.9mil, and $14.8mil over the next three years. It’s just not worth it.
The funny part is that there has been no bidding war for these guys. The conversation just starts at ridiculous. I think Atlanta thinks they are playing hardball by not offering JJ the 6th year on the deal right away.
Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^
They aren't playing hardball at all lol, they are just being stupid.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree, they got paid more than they were worth.
But I also see the reason those two teams needed to overpay. Although it’s still a pretty bad contract, I could see why the Hawks wanted to keep Johnson around so much, since he’s been a vital part of their success. The Gay contract was pretty ridiculous, though.
by TheDaydreamer on Jul 1, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
but how else would teams like the Grizzlies and the Hawks convince their guys to stay with the teams?
They could just say no we won’t pay that much? Then when the league starts crumbling from lack of attendance due to no competition the salarys would fall to realistic levels. It doesn’t do any good to build a super team if there are no creditable teams left to play against it so the cheaper teams actually have the leverage to force lower salarys. Pretty much the same mindset that would have avoided the hosing bubble and the credit bubble and now the budget bubble.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jul 1, 2010 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
A fair assessment.
I think you’re thinking too logically. Even if Memphis and Atlanta didn’t sign Gay and Johnson, respectively, you could be sure some other team that prepared for this moment (some for 2 years) did not want to leave empty handed. If those two weren’t going to overpay them, you could be sure another team was going to. If I remember correctly, at least 4 teams were trying to entice Gay, a flawed basketball player, to sign with them, and I’m sure lots of cap room would have been one of their bargaining chips. It’s like you said about the housing bubble, people get caught up in the hype and want their piece of the pie. In this case, GM’s get caught up in the FA 2010 hype and will feel the need to come away with at least something.
by TheDaydreamer on Jul 1, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Another dumb deal is signed!
http://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/17539800192
When I get older, I will be stronger.
They’ll call me freedom, just like a Waving Flag
No, if he plays like he did this past season, he's worth it.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a little expensive
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Compared to the utter ridiculous offers he would get from other teams probably in this climate
Its a decent deal for the Suns. I’d rather have him than Gooden, right?
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh absolutely
it could be worse. At least he’s a great 3 point shooter.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Warriors
I guess Riley called Mike Miller offering him the full MLE and he got one reply with two words. Mike Miller agent seems to be so arrogant that the Lakers gave him until tonight to come up with a decision. So many teams wants him, I don’t know why, he soft in defense, he can shoot and is bit athletic when you compare him to Korver.
Thank god warriors are not in the game for him, my guys I want are Outlaw, Dorell Wright, Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, Antoine Wright basically small role players who can play defense.
Waaaarriors
I agree, we need some defensive playing role players.
I say get T-Mac.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions
He shoots
he rebounds and he passes really well for his position, whether he’s a 2 or a 3. He’s absolutely worth a midlevel exception.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions
+1
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh
and if he goes to the Lakers, I’m even more afraid of that team than I’ve ever been. Game over if he does. A quality wing off the bench is exactly what they lack.
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Jul 1, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Smart Move
A backcourt with Curry and T-Mac sounds hella good to me. I just wonder if he will stay healthy, thats why we need a guy like Keith Bogans to become a backup in case of an injury. This line up should look good.
Starting:
Curry
T-Mac
Outlaw
AR
Jermaine O’Neal
Backup:
CJ/Bell
Bogans/Morrow
Reggie/Azbuike
Wright/Udoh
Turiaf/Gadzuric
Btw, just hoping we trade away Ellis and Biedrins so we have enough cap space to sign O’Neal and T-Mac
Waaaarriors
A backcourt with Curry and T-Mac sounds hella good to me.
Might as well, if we’re gonna lose let’s do it with style. Maybe Tmac and UkpeEdoh could choreograph some tandem smooth moves with sleepy eyes routines?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jul 1, 2010 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I swear skep..do you smoke weed when you post ? Haha.
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Btw, did anyone hear this rumor?
Dampier’s expiring contract which is not guaranteed plus Stevenson for Ellis and Radmonvic. Dallas would get Ellis a player they wanted last summer and Warriors will get the cap space in August.
Waaaarriors
Nope, i didn't hear it, and i think thats probably bad value.
Maybe Butler ?
Kobe sucks
"Frankly your desire to be a seller is just proof of how blinded you are by your hatred of Sabean"-giantsrainman..LOL
by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 1, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
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