Some GSW Win Estimates

Nice work. Without knowing anything about how you came up with these numbers, 42 wins sounds optimistically right.

Thank you for including the links. I bookmarked all of them, including your detailed blog post, for future perusal. While the gist of this FanPost makes sense to me, I’m confused how you came up with these numbers:

[I] factored in each guy’s ‘09-’10 results via Basketball Prospectus’s Win Percentage, Basketball Reference’s Win Shares, and Basketball Value’s Adjusted Plus-Minus

What results are you referring to exactly? I skimmed through Basketball Prospectus, for example, and couldn’t find any sort of formula that allowed you to come up with 42.5 wins as stated above.

I refer to your blog post where you state “if we weight each player’s ‘09-’10 results by their playing time, we ought to be able to get a reasonable estimate of the win total each system would predict” and want to know what math you are referring to.

I understand you left all of that out for simplicity’s sake, but it’d be nice to see how it all works. Am I off in asking this?

Nice post. I think that’s about as well as you could do estimating the success of this team somewhat scientifically. The problem I have with this and any other attempt to do this kind of analysis for this particular team is how many question marks there are hanging around. The biggest being will there be any major roster moves once the sale of the team is final and all restrictions on combining our expiring contracts are up (did this happen yet? I haven’t been paying that close of attention lately)? Shortly after that you have the question of who will be coaching the team, and how that coach will choose to allocate minutes.

Also the things you mention in your article could be pretty big factors, like the expected production of Andris, Monta, Curry, Lee etc. There are more than a couple guys that will likely have a significant shift in their production, and a few more that could have less pronounced shifts.

I think all of that, combined with injuries make any predictions pretty tricky. Having said all that, I’d say you did a pretty good job. Personally I can see this team finishing anywhere from the low 30s (if we have similar struggles and injuries as we have had recently) all the way up to 48 or so if everything clicks and we make one or two moves to fill some holes. So yeah, IMO high thirties or low forties is probably a pretty smart prediction.

Monta could be better, Amundson could take Gadzuric’s minutes, Lee’s defense at the 4 will be better, Curry will be better, Biedrins will be better, Wright could be better, Wright could be better….honestly you can’t really account for these things in your numbers, so i would say 42-47 is my estimate.

Nice post, but there is too much uncertainty for this to be a reliable methodology. I do applaud your attempt to go by more than gut feelings, and I tend to agree with the optimistic 40 win prediction.

That said, stats may help in predicting a players performance. But there are just too many unknowns (on the individual as well as team level)

Not saying that I have any better system though, just casting stones around

With Curry/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Andris we have a very solid, potentially great starting 5 as well as good player in Brandan, Reggie and possibibly Lin. With Dorell Wright and David Lee plus Andris coming back to form hopefully, our biggest weakness is now probably a strength as far as rebounding goes. Lee and Biedrins could possibibly both average 10+ rebounds and Dorell Wright rebounds at a high rate. Then Curry is a good rebounder for a point guard so I think our rebounding should be solid at worst. I think with a very good front court our backcourt of Curry and Ellis will be able to play even better than last year. Curry should have a great 2nd season and hopefully Monta can defer some I think we may have a chance at the playoffs. But if I had to give an honest guess I would say anywhere between 39-43 wins. If we get alot from our bench we could really contend for the playoffs but we really only have about 2 guys who are any good and 1 in Brandan Wright has to prove he can stay healthy

We have an uninspired coach, and a somewhat shallow roster. David Lee was an All-Star last year, but that was after injuries and other things kept other players from participating. Nowhere in our top 8 rotation do we have a legitimately above average defender. Not even talking about great. Just above average. Wright has never seen consistent minutes on an NBA team, so he’s not a proven defensive commodity. Biedrins does work on the defensive end, put he’s not a particularly good post defender. Curry is a question mark, and probably improved, but I wouldn’t bet on above average. Lee and Monta have nice steal numbers, but I think we all know they are below average defenders. I really don’t know much about Reggie’s defense, and Brandon has never been healthy enough to be a good defensive player. I’d say Bell and Gadzuric are perfectly average defenders, and we can’t really know anything about Lin or Udoh’s defense yet. We’ll be decent offensively, and do an okay job rebounding, but our defense is going to be terrible, and there’s no overcoming that. Too many good teams in the West also. We’ll finish pretty low.

I’d like to see the Warriors to take things slow at the start of the season and slowly come out hot at the end of the season. Wins won’t matter more than the players understanding their roles and get a feel for the team game. Even if we don’t get 30 wins, a lottery pick to add to a budding team is a lot better. If the new owners do make a trade, I feel like something’s on the cusp, make one that adds a new dynamic to the team and not one that breaks up what’s already working.

To be honest, Owen, when I saw that this was posted by you, I expected some doom and gloom… Dare I say some Golden State Worrier-ing (I’ll be here all week). Yet, though I’m optimistic and you’re pessimistic about the upcoming year and offseason acquisitions, we’re both realists and recognize our optimism and pessimism for what they are: hopes and worries.

The Warriors have the potential to win more than 50 games if Curry starts banging on the door of the all star conversation, Lee is an all star, Biedrins is healthy, Nellie recognizes these things and plays reasonable line ups, and Monta accepts his second banana role and stops taking the other team one on five.

The Warriors equally have the potential to lose 50 games if Monta keeps trying to convince the world he’s the second best basketball player alive, Biedrins keeps getting injured, Nellie keeps playing smallball, Wright gets injured again, Lee can’t defend a telephone pole, and Curry doesn’t take the next step.

What’s going to happen? Something in the middle.

Can we start the season already?

True how you said we got worse defensively..i don’t how’s that possible cause we were the WORST at it last season..Unless Players like Curry,Monta, Wright(s),Biedrins, Reggie,Lee our main guns start PLAYING DEFENSE. It’s possible to improve after one season.

I hope so but it’s not likely with a coach like Nelly, it’s all Run n Gun, then get gunned down 2x worse.

Especially with many teams improving..it’s gonna be really tough and we’re gonna need a lot of luck too.
Can’t wait for opening day.

I’m starting to think Win Shares is a better metric, too. Amundson should push those wins up a bit, and hopefully Curry improves in his sophomore season.