Shaq to Boston (or what the new NBA is about, and how to fit in)
by Zena on Aug 4, 2010 11:03 AM PDT
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So, it's on ESPN that Shaq is going to Boston. Well, well, well.
At minimum veteran salary (1.4 million), it was too cheap to let go for them. For him, it seems is about to keep playing in a high level team. Maybe even having a shot for a 5th ring.
The point here for us is about the new NBA. It seems that if you have a winning team, or a very strong nucleus, then you can buy on the cheap lots of good players, a la Miami. You have to be dumb, or really unlucky, not to build a contender if you have a couple golden chips on board.
Well, as of now, we don't have any golden chip (we can make a case for a silver chip, but that's it. We don't have the LeBrons, the Howards, the Durants, the Kobes, etc., lets be honest here). AND, we have been both dumb and unlucky with our moves the past years. At the least.
On this new NBA, new strategies have to be used to build contenders. I would love to have a strong idea on how ours should be, but even having faith in new management, I can't see enough free players around to change things around in 3-4 years.
Just to finish on topic again, if we wanted Shaq (I know we don't) we should have payed 4 times what Boston is paying, and still he would have said No Thanks. So how can you compete on a league where you have to pay several times what others offer just to have a chance to sign them? (*sigh*). Please someone give me some hope.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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We
have to build a team similar to theirs, somehow.. or just overpay people several times the amount they should be getting paid, like you said.
by Warrior Mentality on Aug 4, 2010 11:11 AM PDT reply actions
As for now, our plan is something like this...
Everybody and their sister will be offering Carmelo a max contract. Why would he come here? For how things are going in the NBA, he’ll probably go to somewhere with at least one big star already. That’s our catch-22.
This is what this league became. A Catch-22 league.
by Zena on Aug 4, 2010 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I suppose the only way to spark his interest in us
would be to win.
Call me crazy, but if we make the playoffs next year, and do decently enough, where our biggest position of need is SF, he could see adding himself here to fill our “missing piece” and get himself a ring.
In this case, it'll help the Dubs out.
Whoever signs Carmelo will probably be really disappointed.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Well here's a start.
Don’t try and pay four times the going rate for someone like Shaq. That’s the start of a plan. Trust me, 38 year old Shaq signing someone else (particularly in the East) isn’t worth worrying about.
I would also like to point out that a new CBA is coming through next year. Not saying things are certain to take a major change after next year but what I am saying is that nobody knows how the NBA is going to be structered after the next offseason so this might not be the best time to worry too much about this kind of stuff.
Because talent? You want to add a guy like boozer because hes talented? I’m sorry i just don’t see that as a valid reason. -- fffindeed
damn
it’s a shame how the NBA has turned into a league of super teams. MIA, BOS, LA, and talks about NYK forming one just to win a ring? Whatever happened to the thought of winning it as the alpha dog, and prove to the world that you are the BEST of the freakin BEST? Does that not exist anymore?!
IMO, if the Miami Heat turn out like how they really envisioned the franchise to be after signing Lebron and Bosh, the Warriors won’t be seeing any rings at least for the next decade.
by LETS GO WARRIORS on Aug 4, 2010 1:21 PM PDT reply actions
Whatever happened to the thought of winning it as the alpha dog, and prove to the world that you are the BEST of the freakin BEST? Does that not exist anymore?!
Because that is next to impossible. Teams with multiple “superstar-quality” players will win the championships, with very few exceptions like the 2004 Pistons squad, and that’s just how the trend goes.
by WYK on Aug 4, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
It is the way has been and will always be
Let’s face it the league is designed to keep the elite cities on top.
In the 70’s the lakers were handed new orleans first pick and rights to Magic johnson as compensation for Gail Goodrich signing as a free agent to NO. That is unheard of.
the leauge creates the LArry Bird rule with Bird rights to protect Boston.
similarily, again The Lakers are awarded the rights or the 1st pick for James Worthy as some form of punishment to Cleveland takes their pick away.
they introduce the draft lottery – what a ooincidence that ewing goes to new york. Not GS who had the worst record.
They put in exceptions and loop holes to circumvent the salary cap to help the rich get richer.
they even put in the allan houston rule to help NY out.
EVerytime the NBA or Stern installed a new rule to the NBA it always benefitted the elite teams and went into effect at the time to help them.
Where was this when they developed the ARenas rule? To be in effect the following year after we lose Arenas.
I want a true hard cap with no exception no loop holes and complete parity.
It will never happen because the NBa will never risk tv revenue and keeping elite teams in the finals. Even if it is conspiracy theory laden series like sac vs lakers etc…
Bring on a hard cap
by legionurmaster on Aug 4, 2010 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Those are all good points.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 4, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Disagree
I don’t like parity. The NFL bores me to death. I don’t like idea of hard cap and you’ll lose players that easy or morgage your team to re-sign them.
I think NBA has best system. So Lebron left, so what. If Cleveland management did a better job he’d have stayed. But they didn’t. I have no sympathy cause, quite frankly, as Warriors fans when have we ever landed a #1 pick when Lebron James was available? They got lucky to get him, a franchise player, hardest thing to find.
Building a winner is very possible. Spurs did it. Celts did it (and if you don’t believe they did, they basically had 7 or 8 big time young players and assets to trade with which is credit to smart management). Lakers built around Kobe and took advantage of Gasol deal, which in all fairness was not bad for memphis (clear cap room, get Marc Gasol, rebuild)
It starts with drafting well. And if you do that and build around it, you can succeed.
To my first point
I just can’t get behind a product which strives to have everyone .500 and even. It’s just not fun to watch, and yes I like perennial challengers and dynasties, and hope one day our Warriors can be one too!
I don’t like idea of Warriors one year being 50-32 and then 20-62 and then 58-24 with constant main player movement
but you have to admit that the current system is not working either
I could be happy with the current system if they removed the mid level and veterans exceptions from teams already paying the luxury tax. I dont think those teams should be allowed to go out and sign more players….like the lakers adding ratliff, blake etc and retaining their own players as well fisher, brown etc…
something has to be done to avoid this steinbrenner haves and have nots
essentially the luxury tax pays cheap owners to remain cheap as long as they hit the salary floor as they split the cash paid into the luxury tax pool and it allows for owners that want to pay to win that opportunity.
Strip away all exceptions for teams that pay any luxury tax and i think the rest of the system is fine.
by legionurmaster on Aug 4, 2010 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Disagree
I have no problem with the luxury tax or exemptions. Players will always take less to go to winners, you see it in all sports. The exemptions make it possible for up and coming teams to over pay players under cap AND still have money to fill out roster.
Basketball is not a hard sport to be competitive at. Over 50% of teams make playoffs. From there you can work your way up, it’s dependent on management’s commitment
The NFL bores you when there are new, smaller market teams competing every year
and teams can’t buy a championship?
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 4, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
elites only
You put up an excellent fanpost. Once Miami signed the big 3, I laughed thinking there’s not enough $$ to build a team left over. Then all of a sudden, they get a boat load of veterans willing to take less. The joke is on me & my false assumptions. Same thing once again w/ Celtics & Shaq. I’m thinking that there’s no way any of these guys would sign for Golden State for these salaries.
I’m not sure what the solution is or if the league even considers there to be a problem. legionurmaster really nailed it w/ his post. If NY lands CP3 & Carmelo next year, the NBA will have all their big markets locked up for extended playoff basketball.
====
The only path I see possible for Golden State to become a championship team is what Chicago Bulls are doing now. Hopefully, develop some young players & hope some of your picks can develop into all-star level players. Then hope that the player which can put you over the top isn’t highly desired by the teams providing easier path to championships.
Shaq is over the hill.
I’m a little surprised – have you watched him play recently?
Everybody is talking about this like it’s “Oh my god, this great player landed with Boston!”
When perhaps they should be saying, “A washed up player signed with a team which is desperately trying to glue together a nucleus for one more run.”
Boston is a pretty good fit for Shaq. He’s old and slow and injured, like the rest of their big men. They won’t care if he comes into the season out of shape. Maybe they’ll get lucky and enough of their overpaid, old, injured bigs will be able to hold it together every other game for them to make it through a playoff run.
You really hate the Celtics.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 4, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Washed up or not, there will never be another 7’1", 350+lb. player in the NBA. In a limited role he is still effective rebounding, scoring inside, and roughing up anyone in the NBA on D. I actually find it strange and disheartening the way fans and the media are so eager to discount aging players.
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Aug 4, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, it's about that limited role.
And in that way, Boston might be a good fit for him – although since I think Boston’s window has closed, if I were them I would be looking to go the other way, get younger – but I don’t see how they can do that in a meaningful way until KG retires.
And heck, even then, do you want to be paying Pierce $15m/yr in 2014? But I guess they pick up some flexibility in 2013 when KG and Allen come off the books, so signing older stopgap players until then may make some sense. But they need to retool around Rondo – be a more uptempo team, which Shaq can’t do.
Unfortunately, I think Shaq really revealed his limitations in Pheonix. Now, mind you, that was a HORRIBLE fit for him, but even still, Cleveland was better when he wasn’t on the floor.
Shaq was great. Now he’s not. He’s being “discounted” because he hasn’t actually helped a team win in, what, five years? Age catches up with us all. It’s particularly brutal on athletes, but should we pretend he’s good now because he used to be great?
Shaq may be a shadow of his former self, but to get him for the league minimum, in my opinion, speaks more to NBA teams trying to take advantage of stereotypes/trends, than the degree to which his play has diminished.
Even in his most successful years in LA, Shaq was less spry than the “skinny” version we saw, however briefly, in Orlando. His girth ( read: increased body fat %) actually seemed to make him more effective than the Dwight Howard-esque version. Admittedly, the key was his coordination and agility combined with mass, but failing that, he is still a huge presence.
As crazy as it sounds, I think it’s an embarrassment for a player as storied as Shaq to be playing for the league minumum. Plus, he’s getting divorced! Dude needs the money now!
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Aug 4, 2010 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not a stereotype -
Shaq has been legitimately mediocre the last two years, and been in a rather significant decline for at least five.
Should he be paid a lot of money because he used to be good? No. It’s about what he can bring to the floor now. And the truth is, right now, he’s a below-average center who can’t give you a lot of minutes and who places serious limitations on what you can try to do offensively when he’s on the floor.
In any event, Shaq doesn’t need the money, not in any meaningful sense. Half his wealth is more than most of us will earn in a lifetime – combined. In a way, it’s much more respectable for him to make his choice based on basketball considerations than on who can pay him the most. I mean, what would it say about him if he really did need the money?
Well, I do agree it was a respectable choice for him to choose a chance to win over a bigger payday, but I don’t think I will agree that Shaw is a below average center, well, ever. He is still, and always will be, a very efficient scorer inside. Also, beyond the rebounding, he has unmatchable size. How many players, old or young, have any chance of defending a Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol effectively?
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Aug 4, 2010 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
He is still, and always will be, a very efficient scorer inside. Also, beyond the rebounding, he has unmatchable size.
This isn’t a judgement on him over his career, but he just posted the lowest TS% of since his rookie year, a .043 drop from the previous season. It won’t take much more of a drop for him to fall out of the category of “efficient” and it’s certainly not “very efficient” any more.
How many players, old or young, have any chance of defending a Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol effectively?
I don’t think he could defend either of those guys well over a 7-game series. I think in the post season both the Lakers and Orlando would recognize that you can run at Shaq and exploit his lack of mobility even though they aren’t uptempo teams. Shaq just can’t get up and down the floor with Howard or Gasol, rendering his size moot if they choose to exploit that advantage.
That being said, in three games, Howard shot with a TS% of .613 against Cleveland, which doesn’t suggest that Shaq was doing anything special defensively against Howard. Mobility matters on defense a lot. (Gasol was pretty mediocre in two games against Cle, btu given the minutes disparity in one of the games, it’s hard to give Shaq the credit for what happened).
This isn’t a judgement on him over his career, but he just posted the lowest TS% of since his rookie year, a .043 drop from the previous season. It won’t take much more of a drop for him to fall out of the category of "efficient" and it’s certainly not "very efficient" any more.
Here’s a quote from Zach low of TrueHoop via ESPN insider:
Shaq attempted 5.2 shots per game at the rim in 2010, more than any Celtic save Rajon Rondo, and he converted about 67 percent of those looks
Limited thought this value may be, it represents a very efficient aspect of his game.
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Aug 5, 2010 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure.
But that gets to one of my guiding principles: you don’t acquire a player expecting him to be someone other than who he was for his last team.
That is, does it really seem likely that you can get Shaq to take ONLY those at-the-rim shots, and not all the other shots which dragged his shooting down?
Every so often a player does radically retool his game late in his career. eg, we saw the famously hard-working Karl Malone do that in his season with the Lakers (drastically cutting back on his shooting and hitting the boards much harder than he’d done in a long time). But that really is the exception, and Shaq is as famously lazy as Malone was hard-working, he’s famously selfish (eg stealing a reality TV idea from Steve Nash) and showed a real resistance to buy into the team concept in Cleveland.
You have good points Gaucho but,
it should be noted Shaq has rebounded at a higher rate than Perkins the last 4 years and pretty much his whole career. More assists, half a block less per 36 and Shaq still scores at an efficient rate.
maybe i was not clear enough
The problem here is not how good/bad Shaq is now.
The point is, we are being outpicked by the players.
Not outpayed by other franchises.
That scares me.
LeBron not coming here, Bosh not coming here, (*put a big name) not coming here, it is not about the money. That scares me.
In the new NBA, having the players the power to chose for reasons other than money and contracts, the field gets way way harder for playing catch up on the franchises that are already elite.
If, over that, the players are even willing to take LESS money to be someplace else… well, you do the math, but there is not enough top class players to land any of them here.
Now, with Shaq, a player is willing to take much, much less of what some other teams could pay him just to be on the elite.
So I was asking how do you do to get into the elite.
And, I have to say, I don’t think is about big cities. WE are a great place to have a franchise!!. And so is Seattle…. And you have Kansas city getting right there on the elite this season…
So, other than winning the draft in a good year and not blowing it up, what can we do to build a contender?
Vets near the end of their careers have always cherry-picked ideal situations for them.
The LeBron/Wade/Bosh situation is more complicated, but at the end of the day, it’s not that hard:
Create an environment where players want to play. That means visions of a championship. Look, LeBron didn’t want to come here because even with him we’re not a title contender.
Focus on doing what you can: have a well-run organization with a winning tradition. Have players who a superstar will be happy to play with. Be in the playoffs regularly.
Do that, and you’re an attractive destination for a superstar. We couldn’t do that this round because we’ve been horribly mismanaged for the past 10 years.
The reason Bosh and Lebron didn't come here is cause Warriors suck
Take your Dubs jersey off and realize we are regarded as most irrelevant franchise in NBA. If we drafted Dwayne Wade and had Pat Riley I’m sure those two would have come too….
So, other than winning the draft in a good year and not blowing it up, what can we do to build a contender?
Smart management to build a playoff caliber team to make the Warriors seem relevant to NBA player for one? Building from there? If you were an NBA player and had offers would you choose golden state?
And also we didn't have cap space
I don’t know if we had much in the way of pieces for a sign and trade
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Aug 4, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
It should also be pointed out
15 years ago the Heat were just irrelevant than the Warriors. Pre-Mark Cuban the Mavs were worst franchise in NBA.
yah
the really sad team are the cavs: they had lebron, they were winners, but still no one wanted to go there, for reasons Joakim Noah so eloquently addressed several months ago
Goal: 8 seed!
by dso on Aug 4, 2010 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
eh
They had no cap room during that period to truly pursue big time free agents. Got assets like huge expirings and young talent and still made no moves. Bad management, Give me 3 years with a superstar like LEbron from 2007 to 2010, I’ll win a championship as GM.
Sorry Danny Ferry.
and Perkins is never going to be more than a backup on a good team.
Are you serious? C’mon now.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 4, 2010 4:21 PM PDT reply actions
How to build a contender:
On this new NBA, new strategies have to be used to build contenders. I would love to have a strong idea on how ours should be, but even having faith in new management, I can’t see enough free players around to change things around in 3-4 years.
The way to change things around is to maintain the 3rd pick pace the Warriors were on last season. Failing that, they needed to not be the biggest loser in the entire draft, being forced out of a chance at Cousins, the only hope at a contender-worthy center the warriors will have for a very, very long time. I think if Cousins turns out to be an all-star we will all be able to look at that particular series of events as the reason the warriors will not have put together a contender in the next decade.
Confront racism: Boycott Arizona
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Aug 4, 2010 6:39 PM PDT reply actions
This is nothing new
A way over the hill former superstar signing with a contending team for possibly a little less money than he couldve gotten elsewhere is not a new thing. Would anyone really have preferred Shaq take big money to return to the Cavs or something?
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
if we wanted Shaq (I know we don't) we should have payed 4 times what Boston is paying, and still he would have said No ?
How do we know that if we never tried? Maybe Shaq would enjoy some bayside time? or he might just enjoy punking the lakers 4 times in the west? Anyone think Riley actually approached Shaq about coming here?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 4, 2010 9:51 PM PDT reply actions
We didn’t have the means to offer him 4 times what they offered. We have the remains of the MLE post-Dorrell Wright. That’s it. And from the standpoint of trying to build a winner and not trying to bring in a past-prime player who figures in more as a novelty than anything else, Wright was a much better buy.
Do we know if Riley contacted Shaq? No. But we know what he could have offered him. And based on that and based on what Shaq has actually done over the last couple of years, I don’t see any reason to fault Riley if he never called Shaq’s agent. It’s not a good fit and not a good investment for the Warriors right now.
by jae on Aug 5, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
based on that and based on what Shaq has actually done over the last couple of years, I don’t see any reason to fault Riley if he never called Shaq’s agent.
well, that’s the only way we can say for certain that he wouldn’t have come here for the vet minimum or that he prefers boston to the yay area?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 5, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Celts looking real good
Big pickup getting Shaq, on top of getting Jermaine. They could use Rasheed’s threes again though.
Celts, if healthy, should be a top 3 team in the east, if not the top team again. If they are all healthy come playoff time, I pick them to win it all, after the Lakers that is.
Come visit us at Goldenstwarriors.com, long time fans of GSOM
If they are all healthy come playoff time, I pick them to win it all, after the Lakers that is.
What about that Miami celebrity lost team? You think the Celts and lakers are still better than them?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 5, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Miami is weak allround
After the three stars there in Miami, they really are weak. They have got Mike Miller, who hasn’t been anything good for three years. The rest of them are two bit players at best, some are has beens. The three stars might not even gel either. Too many ifs there. Should be Lakers v Celts again
Miller, Chalmers, House, Big Z, and Anthony seem pretty good.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 6, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Miller, Chalmers, House, Big Z, and Anthony seem pretty good.
and Lebron,Wade,and Bosh could beat just about any five other NBA players in a 3 on 5 game so barring injury I don’t see how that team can lose many games.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Aug 6, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 6, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
They have got Mike Miller, who hasn’t been anything good for three years.
You are confusing “good” with “high points per game”. They are not synonyms. Miller is still an insanely dangerous long range threat, one of the most efficient scorers in the game. No, he doesn’t score at high volume, but when he does take shots, he makes them and scores points. A fourth option that gets you double digit points on .600+ TS% wins you games. Miller also remains a good rebounder for a 2/3 and gets assists without turnovers. I could see why you might think he hasn’t been good if you can’t see past points per game, but if you look at the rest of his production, your notion that he “hasn’t been anything good” is just wrong.
by jae on Aug 6, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
They could use Rasheed’s threes again though.
Rasheed’s negatives greatly outweighed his positives last year. He was not an effective player for them. They did much better when he sat than when he played. He’s never been much of a rebounder and his position and man defense is no longer what it once was. The reputation of Rasheed greatly exceeded the reality. His 3s? He shot well under 30% for the season. For everyone one that they miss him making, they’ll be better off without the ones he took and missed.
by jae on Aug 5, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Well it wasn't that long ago when the Celtics were bad, too.
They only had Paul Pierce, but luckily had opportunities to make trades for KG and Ray Allen.
I don’t think the Warriors are doomed. Curry is a future all-star, the franchise will be fine as long as they build around him. All we need to do is make the Playoffs and free agents will take notice of our team. Missing the Playoffs 14 times in the last 15 years is a big reason why we’re laughed at. Once we make the Playoffs again, people will forget about our past troubles.
by Precise Films Productions on Aug 5, 2010 9:04 AM PDT reply actions
Stars and the willingness to pay the luxary tax, that’s what you need to roll with the big dogs. We dont have either.
Thing B
Boise State is the best team in the country, no asterisks.
by warriorsscore110 on Aug 6, 2010 9:55 AM PDT reply actions
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