NBA's Top Potential 2011 Free Agents [SI.com]
Well the Warriors didn't quite land LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire this summer, but do you think they have a shot at any of these free agents next summer?
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Not an exciting bunch.
I’d be tempted by Kirilenko, but Carmelo is going to get way more than he’s worth.
Beyond that? A lot of meh.
You're not excited by Horford or Noah?
I mean, Noah is likely to be matched, but Atlanta is in a real tough spot with Horford which means he’s realistically available (also same logic could apply to Gasol).
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think Horford excites me now that we have Lee. I would have liked him next to Biedrins, but now I don’t see much point. Basically, neither of them can guard guys outside, and neither of them protects the rim well. They’re bad fits next to each other. I like Horford, just don’t think he’s a good fit.
As for Noah, the big concern is "what does he give us that Andris doesn’t’?
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Right. Noah is a bit of a duplicate Andris.
Horford is just so good, I feel like if you have a chance to get him, you have to make it work.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
You think Horford is that good? I like Horford, I think he’s solid, but he’s not exactly a player I would be too hurt over passing up. Honestly, I’d rather have Marc Gasol.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd like to see Horford at PF, to be honest
He has natural size for PF, I think he’s skilled enough for PF. He does well at center but I imagine he could do better @ PF. If you notice, he does poorly against the bigger centers for obvious reason. Defensively he’s quick enough to guard PFs.
Horford isn't a PF.
That’s a popular thought because of his height, but, really, he’s poorly suited for that position. He’s an exceptional post defender, but really bad in isolation. Mobile fours destroy him. He’s strong, and has good length, enough to be a center in today’s NBA. There are no more physically dominating C’s. Unless Howard develops an offensive game, he’s got nothing to worry about.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose an ideal situation for him would be
to play next to a longer PF then.
Yeah. Him next to a Tyrus Thomas-ish guy would be the ideal, I think (defensively).
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
What about a Josh Smith type?
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Hah. Well, see I actually really dislike Smith, and think he'
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
s one of the most overrated defenders in the NBA.
(not sure why the first half of that posted already, but I’m just gonna keep it rolling real smooth-like).
Tyrus is active, a good position defender, great shotblocker and a good rebounder.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking more kevin garnett
Smith is miles ahead of Tyrus Thomas but I still think they are both too small.
I do. His defense is absurd, and his offense is improving. He reminds me of the Horace Grant types.
The old school guys that were solid everywhere, and sneakily made their teams really, really good.
His value lies in not being paid a massive amount, though. Not sure what kind of deal he’ll command.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess I just think he’s solid defensively. He’s fine at protecting the rim, but not “good”. If he’s your only shot blocker, that’s a bad thing. Good post defender, weaker against huge guys and quicker bigs, and worse the farther you get from the hoop. Off ball D is solid enough, but nothing impressive. At least that’s what I’ve seen out of him.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I was about to make the point again that I’d rather have Gasol, since they’re pretty comparable and Gasol is younger, but I was surprised to find out Horford is a year and a half younger than Marc. Interesting.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
My problem is with his rebounding.
I think defensively he’s pretty great, but not in terms of shot-blocking. He’s more of an alterer of shots from what I’ve seen.
He’s actually comparable to Gasol offensively, which is interesting. His efficiency is surprising there.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Horford and Noah are both restricted FA's.
Maybe you’re right that Horford will be available, but I suspect the asking price will be really high.
Hard to imagine Noah changing teams.
BTW, could you give us Dorell Wright's defensive numbers last year according to Synergy?
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
They aren't very good.
I’m inclined to think they’ll improve, just based on blind hope, but they’re pretty bad (his offense is encouraging, though).
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s also young and defense generally has a learning curve, so hopefully that’s a good sign for us….
I’m not adept at reading synergy’s stats, what am I looking at, exactly?
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Basically, their main number is PPP, which is Points Per Possession.
On defense, anything above .90 is pretty bad, and anything below .85 is pretty good (for the overall numbers). Each situation has a different midpoint. Isolation, for example, is generally a lower-yield situation on average (in terms of PPP), while spot-up is much higher.
Wright being that bad in isolation situations is the troubling part. But it’s also the thing most likely to improve.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see how he's so bad in isolation yet better in spot up....maybe theres a fault or mistake.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
What do you mean?
Why couldn’t he be better in rotation/spot-up defense than isolation defense?
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
How is holding his man to 39% shooting pretty bad, unless i missed something?
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do you think he’s worth a max contract?
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Amar'e, Gay, and Joe Johnson got one.
I’m guessing it’s along those lines….
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
And yet most people would tell you that Johnson and Gay don't come close to deserving those contracts.
Johnson’s deal might be one of the dumbest in NBA history.
(That being said, looks like the Owners are going to try to gut longer contracts in the CBA negotiations. That’ll be interesting.)
I am not defending giving those guy's deals, but you won't be able to have any bargaining chip with Carmelo.
His agent will automatically point to worse players getting the max, and you can’t really negotiate out of that, especially when most NBA GM’s still value PPG over everything else.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, sure.
I suspect someone will offer him the max. It’s a big splashy move.
But as far as providing enough wins to be worth it? I just don’t think he delivers. I suspect whatever team gets him will underperform expectations.
Of course.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I wasn’t giving my own view, just asking his. :)
But no, I really don’t. He’s a slightly above average rebounder. I think he’s pretty poor at creating shots for his teammates – he does have an above average assist rate, but that’s simply because he’s such a big part of the offense. Given how higher his usage is, I think his assist rate is pretty poor. He’s not much of a defender. He’s a decent scorer – great volume, pretty average efficiency. Meh, that’s not a max guy in my eyes, especially since he’s a wing (big men are more valuable). He basically has one trait that makes him a good player (scoring), and he’s not even that great at it overall.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's my favorite stat
Since 2000, Carmelo Anthony has highest FG% in last shots of gamers to tie or win. 42% career. Take that Kobe! (who is in low 30s). I’ll link article if I can find it again. Funniest part, #2 was Pau Gasol.
I think last year his production really dropped off because of injuries and coaching situation so I am willing to give him a pass. I had him on my fantasy team (so i did follow him closely) he had an excellent first half, then he had some injury issues but more than that, the George Karl situation and whole team went to free fall along with his production.
I think Carmelo is top 5 most gifted scorers in NBA. I’d actually put him @ #2 to Kevin Durant. Of course Wade, Lebron are better basketball players but Melo would add what this team hasn’t had since Baron, a certified alpha player. I like way he’s matured over last few years and best is yet to come from him.
Granted we’re talking a fantasy land now, I still think this team is 1 viable star player (Carmelo I’d rate as one) away from being a 55+ win team. In the magical even we could get Carmelo I’d look to trade Monta mostly for defensive specialists and guys who can hit open jumpers. Denver were awfully close to NBA final in 08-09 and while Chauncey get’s a lot of credit, truth is Chauncey + Nene’s return were what took a team fighting for 8 seed on Carmelo’s abilities alone to an upper tier side. No different to the Lakers with Kobe pre-Gasol and after Bynum’s emergence and Gasol trade.
For me it’s worth giving a player I perceive as top 10 in NBA a max contract. Before you argue, it’s my contention from a winning POV, you are better off overpaying for high end talent and filling role players than spreading equal on talent (ie signing 4 $9 to $12 million players)
by tafkasam on Aug 5, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, no one is doubting Carmello is a good option in the clutch.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Having a legitimate late game option
Who is proven scorer in those situations can give you 5 to 10 wins alone.
Ok
Consider how many games the Warriors lost that were close at end? Think about back 2 years when we had Baron Davis, a player who knew how to handle late game situations.
I don’t think it’s in anyway unplausible… and thats not to count impact he’d have first 46 minutes of games, and games that could be won then.
Basically, to give us 5 wins, if he alone means we score 10% more of the time (a 10% boost is pretty huge, I think), that means we have to be in 50 games where those extra scoring opportunities win it for us when we would have otherwise lost…..
I think it’s easy to look at clutch situations in any sport (whether you’re talking basketball, baseball, football) and see a situation where you lose and a better player could have won it….but from the data I’ve seen in whatever sport we’re talking about here, we tend to overestimate how often it happens, and we tend to forget the situation would be completely different with another player in the place – the whole game would play differently. Going from a closer that saves 32/40 opportunities to one that’s lights out and saves 36/40 doesn’t actually end up adding 4 wins for a variety of reasons. I don’t have basketball numbers in front of me, but I have reasons I suspect you’re overestimating it (including just the sheer number of game winners ’Melo takes in a year, if you can find that number)….
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
No, maybe 1 or 2 at most.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I do believe Melo is a good clutch player. I also agree it’s better to overpay a good player than try to get equal value from a collection of players. I just don’t see ’Melo as a top scorer, and I think most of the rest of the list of top scorers, aside from maybe Durant, are all better defenders than he is.
Just going to his scoring, the top 5 scorers per 40 minutes last season were Durant, Lebron, Melo, Wade, Kobe, in that order. The TS’s of each, in that order, were: 60.6%, 60.4%, 54.9%, 56.2%, 54.5%. So Melo was worse than everyone but Kobe. But if you look through each of their previous years numbers, I think Melo easily looks the worst – Kobe was at 58%, 57.6%, 56.1% the previous 3 seasons and had 7 straight seasons at 55%+ before this year. Wade’s been at 56%+ 5 of the last 6 years. Kobe 4 of the last 6 (55.9% one of those 2 he didn’t). Melo? He’s only done it twice in the last 6 years. His llast 3 years he’s put up: 56.8%, 53.2%, 54.8%. Not that great.
Then you throw in the next group of scorers – Amare, Maggette (yep, 7th highest rate in the NBA!), Dirk, Bosh, Danny Granger….all but Granger significantly more efficient than Melo (and Granger is still more efficient than him, just not by that big a margin).
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
The fact you site Maggette shows, stats don’t tell whole story ;)
Let’s agree to disagree. The best argument I can come up with is even with AI who was hardly an effective AI he was in past and a generally mediocre team, Melo was able to get nuggets into playoffs in 07-08
No stats do tell the story.
You aren’t looking at Maggette’s terrible defense which offsets his great offense.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I brought up Maggette simply because I was trying to be objective and just looked at the highest rate scorers in the league. He happened to be on that list. I do believe stats tell the whole story – I mean, every single thing that happens is in +/-, for instance. That doesn’t mean you’ll be able to isolate a single thing or find what you’re looking for (even if it’s there), but it is in there, somewhere. So basically, I’ve presented my side, I’ll challenge you to come up with a case for the other side! ;)
For the record, not sure what this means, but in ‘07-08 the Nuggets were the 11th best offensive team in the NBA, and 10th best defensive team by BB-Ref’s offensive and defensive efficiencies.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
But when comparing stats
you are readily admitting that all variables are the same. Every shot is the same, every environment is the same. They are not. Players defend Kobe harder than they defend Sasha Vujacic. Teams play lackadaisical on a back to back, etc etc.
I think stats are a great tool, but you have to look beyond them too. For Carmelo, I think he’s a borderline great player, perennial all-star and a guy capable of being ‘the man’ (whatever that means) on a playoff team, depending on supporting pieces, even better. I cannot say the same about Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, Corey Maggette for ex.
I'm not sure if I buy that.
Even still, if players defend one guy harder than another, then it’s in that player’s best interest to not take as many shots.
There’s no bonus in taking difficult shots just because they’re difficult. They look cool, but it’s still a poor basketball play.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with your no bonus shot opportunity, but one can’t deny every team gives (and I don’t know why I’m defending) the Lakers 110% effort that they may not give the Warriors of Kings.
Simply put, I don’t see Curry or Monta getting the treatment Kobe gets or other known superstars. And it’s worth pointing out. Efficiency always goes down in this case, ands I think playoff basketball shows it too,
ex. the finals for both teams.
Players defend Kobe harder than they defend Sasha Vujacic. Teams play lackadaisical on a back to back, etc etc.
Do they defend Melo harder than Dirk or Danny Granger or Dwyane Wade?
Pro-Skub for life
by Reverend_Randy on Aug 5, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
you are readily admitting that all variables are the same
No, I’m not. I’m always ok with putting statistics in context. I’ve never claimed every shot or environment is the same. You seem to think the stats I’m presenting are missing something. That’s fine, I’d just like some specifics on what they’re missing with some evidence. When I compare ‘Melo to other great scorers, he doesn’t appear to me to stack up to most of the other top 10 guys, actually, I think he would be the #10 best scorer on that list. If you don’t think he would, make the case – why not?
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
If I were to pick one (logically)
I’d go with Nene, unless Beidrins has 2008 type of season. If that’s the case, Gasol and Noah would look good in a Dubs uniform. Joakim would instantly become a fan favorite!
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Possible players to really consider:
1. Carmelo Anthony – Unrestricted
2. Marc Gasol – Restricted (If Grizz choose Zach Randolph, they wont have the $ to match offers for Gasol)
3. Caron Butler – Unrestricted
4. Jason Richardson – Unrestricted
5. Andrei Kirilenko – Unrestricted
6. Tayshaun Prince – Unrestricted
Carmelo
would be a reach but I wouldn’t say impossible
Id say impossible
Unless we got Paul, Lebron Howard, Kobe, on our roster Carmelo is next to impossible.
Win Or Lose Warriors For Life.........
Naw.
Odds are good Carmelo goes to whomever is willing to pay him the most money. It’s really really rare that a star player takes significantly less than the most somebody is offering him.
New York has demonstrated a willingness to overpay, and a willingness to put scoring above all else with their singing of Amare. They also care a lot about names. That adds up, I think, to NY making a big run at Carmelo.
But imagine that we had the cap room. We won’t, but let’s imagine that we do. We have a winning season with a new coach, continuity and movement in the right direction – If we put a mid-40-win team on the floor this year, and could offer him as much money as anyone, why wouldn’t he come here?
People are reading too much into this Lebron-Wade-Bosh thing. Is New York – who won’t put up a 40+ win season this year – that much more of an attractive destination? I don’t see it.
We'd need to have a great year and some positive press...
for Carmelo to consider. On top of that, we’d need teams like NYC to still be a mess.
I agree
We would have to have an awesome year with Curry blooming, D Lee shinning, Monta back to 2008-09 form and Biedrins healthy and posting double doubles. On top of that Warriors would NEED to make the playoffs and get positive press like tafkasam said. With all that, it is a possibility, NOT a probability, a possibility that Melo considers joining the Warriors.
I don’t really see NYC as a preferred destination for Melo
at the momentonly because I can’t see the Hornets trading CP3 to the knicks and CP3 will become a FA not next summer but the one after that. The remaining option for New York during the next offseason will be to sign Tony Parker and I think we all know that a comination of Parker, Amare and Carmelo doesn’t even come close to compete against teams like Heat, Celtics, Magic and maybe even Hawks.
Having said all that, Denver is still the front runner to re-sign Melo and the possible offers from other better teams than the Warriors would make it extremely hard to land Carmelo in Golden State however I don’t think we should categorized that as impossible (LeBron to GSW was impossible)
I wouldn't mind seeing J-Rich in a Dubs uni again!
Although he’d obviously have a much lesser role than he did when he left. And even though he can’t leap like he used to, his 3 point shot has gotten much better since.
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Oh wait
didn’t we acquire a top-10 free agent this year? How soon we forget…
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
You are 110% right. The Warriors WERE players in the free agent market this offseason when no one (including me) really thought they would even be the slightest factor. Credit Larry Riley for the creativity. I don’t think they’re a playoff team quite yet, but I’m pretty impressed at what he pulled off this offseason thus far. Not quite LeBron, Wade, Bosh, or Amare, but still a nice job.
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by Atma Brother ONE on Aug 5, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Basically agreed. Setting aside the rather painful talent outlay for David Lee, I’d argue that Lee at 6/$80M for his age 27-32 years and DWright at 3/$11M for his age 24-26 years were two of the better free agent values this offseason. So long as Randolph’s potential to be a bit of knucklehead keeps his star potential somewhat in check, it’s hard to hate the Lee deal. And the DWright signing, in a market where Rudy Gay fetched 5/$80M, was just unequivocally excellent.
For me the biggest black mark on this offseason is that we were unwilling to shell out a measly 3/$12M for Morrow. Personally I’d sooner have dumped Monta for a bag of balls with an expiring contract.
The only way all these moves seem like part of a sound master plan to me is if there’s one last deal in the works involving moving Monta for either (1) a SG who can rebound and defend his position, (2) a solid starting SF, or (3) a big man who can play a little. Unless and until that last shoe drops, I have to give this about offseason about a C+, or at best an incomplete.
At this point I’m kind of assuming the “plan,” such as it is, is to go into the season with Monta as the starting SG, hope he plays well enough not to damage his trade value, and see what kind of deals involving him and our pile of expiring contracts materialize as the season progresses. Still, I’m curious to see what happens early next week when the two-month restriction on trading Gadzuric and Bell is lifted. What’s your best guess, Atma Bro? Do you think Riley has any more big tricks up his sleeve this offseason?
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Aug 6, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
The only way all these moves seem like part of a sound master plan to me is if there’s one last deal in the works involving moving Monta for either (1) a SG who can rebound and defend his position, (2) a solid starting SF, or (3) a big man who can play a little. Unless and until that last shoe drops, I have to give this about offseason about a C+, or at best an incomplete.
I think the team views Dorell as the “solid starting SF.” There’s some obvious risk to that, because of the injury history and the fact that he hasn’t really done it yet for more than 20 minutes a night, but when he’s been healthy he’s been a solidly above-average player. But I think it’s clear that, to the extent the team thinks it has a need there, it’s a need at backup SF, not starter. There’s certainly some risk attached to planning on a rotation of Monta-Wright-Williams at the 2-3, but I’d rather see the team go into the season with some uncertainty than see them commit to a bad contract for a marginal player.
I agree with you that backup big man is still a rather large question mark, and we’ll hopefully see an addition there. Given that the best-case scenario for Beans is about 30mpg, we realistically have around 30 minutes/game at backup 4/5, if everyone’s healthy, and going into the season with only B. Wright is a big risk.
I’m grudgingly okay with bringing Monta back so long as we also don’t bring Nellie back. I think his trade value is likely to be MUCH higher, almost no matter what, at the deadline. Of course … there’s a small chance he displays a bad attitude and destroys his value, but I don’t see him as having much value to destroy. Since trading him for expirings creates a major roster hole, I don’t see how we could do such a thing.
So, after a big man, my primary concern is backup PG. Not excited by any of our options unless Lin surprises us, but there’s no reason to expect that to happen.
realistic guys that i would want to pursue
al horford, joakim noah, mark gasol, nene, carl landry, jeff green, and thaddeus young.
i would love to pick up thaddeus i think he would be great in our system.
Thaddeus Young, thus far in his NBA career, has really only shown that he sucks at basketball…
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
He looks the part though!
And we can’t discount Isiah Thomas scouting methods.
He’s got the physical traits to be a very good player for sure. His problem is right now he’s just a ‘tweener – but not because he has the skills to play a position he doesn’t necessarily profile to (which can be a good thing) – it’s because he doesn’t have the skills to play the position he does profile to (which is almost always a bad thing).
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
hes shown that he sucks at playing power forward
which is fine because hes a small forward. elton brand has been injured and they want him in the lineup so they play him out of position
The Florida guys would be great fits
Horford or Noah would work nicely next to Lee, as would Marc Gasol.
Of course, Melo would be great, yet that seems amazingly unlikely.
Not really a fan of Tuff Juice, AK47, or Prince for the Warriors unless the price is right- I’d rather get young swingman talent.
Meh
Unless we can swing a “Monta plus expiring scrubs” deal, looks like we may need to wait till 2012 (I hope the movie was wrong and the world does not actually end…because I like the looks of our current squad).
If I had to pick, I’d go with acquiring Prince as a UFA next off-season. His defence would make the Dubs a perennial playoff team…and likely 1st or 2nd round exit.
If I was in charge, my plan for the team would be to make the playoffs for the next couple of years, and patiently look to acquire one or two high-quality players. Long-term, we are pretty far away from being close to de-throning the NBA elite. So we need to stay away from overpaying for talent (especially on long-ish contracts)
I agree with this to an extend
We will either need Monta to step up and be the player he was in 2007-8 along with Curry maturing how we expect him to, Lee doing what he did last year and Biedrins to bounce back to….
Or we need to turn something into a viable allstar player like DLee to make us more attractive to free agents.
Hopefully Biedrins returns to form.
I’m thinking he’s the key to our success next year. Or at least one of them.
Sounds like he’s on the way to being fully healthy by camp. His interview this offseason indicates that he’s almost fully recovered from surgery and rehab. With the addition of better players at other positions (Curry, Monta, Wright and Lee) I expect AB to go back to being his under-the-radar consistent production.
Hopefully riley turns our rocks into gold at the d-line.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
I think David Lee will help him
A lot of pressure off his back
Its not a bad group
I think there are one or two building pieces in that group we could use – I like ARandolph’s list above – But while unlikely, I think those of us who say Carmello is radiculous and out of the question need to stop thinking that way.
It’s a new era!!
by WestCoastWarrior on Aug 5, 2010 9:54 AM PDT reply actions
I'd take J-Rich and AK47 with the combined cap space.
Or just go after Horford.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 10:13 AM PDT reply actions
We need someone to protect the rim and have post defensive presence if we are to ever contend
Only people avail to do that would be Yao, Noah, Chandler…
Noah would be best but Chicago will never let him go.
Yao is injured and probably will retire but if he does good this season then offer him 3 year at max.
Chandler is injured and pretty much sucks now. He had a year just like Biedrins so I dunno… I’d rather have Biedrins because he’s a bit more nimble and younger
F the Po Po
Any of:
Horford, Noah, Richardson, Kirilenko, Duncan (for very short term), Gasol. Maybe Nene or Chandler.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 10:21 AM PDT reply actions
wow
nobody thinks we should get Marcus Thornton? I think we need a nice swingman, even though we already have 35 guards on our team.
I’d love to get gasol, landry, noah or horford though.
He won't be a FA
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d love to have Marc next to Biedrins. I don’t really like D.Lee and Beans together because on defense it’s going to get pretty bad. Lee is one of the worst post defenders in the league for his position and Biedrins is solid at D. Rebounding and everything else is fine, but defense is going to be a huge problem imo.
Lee was used as a center for NYK. I don’t think he will be quite as bad guarding PF’s. He still won’t be above average, but if Biedrins can hold his fouls in check and defend the rim, Lee should be alright. Having a healthy, aggressive BWright backing him up would help too.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
Lee is one of the worst post defenders in the league at his position based on what? If you are going off of last years numbers he wasn’t playing his position. He was playing 5 and he is NOT a 5. So saying a guy is one of the worst defensively at his position based on numbers about him out of position isn’t really accurate. Watch his defensive numbers be noticably better this season. (he’s no post d stud or lock down guy…but he will by no means be at the bottom of the barrell when put in his actual position finally)
by dannyschmanny on Aug 5, 2010 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, let's hope.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
what about D-West?
he’s always killed in the Roaracle
"We have the Animal Kingdom defense."
-Aubrey Huff
Yuck. Why get David West when we can get good players? West doesn’t necessarily suck, but don’t see the point in getting him if Lee is here…
There's no point in getting him in general.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Most players kill when they get to play the Warriors. That’s what happens when you play a terrible defensive team.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Shouldn't you be over at McC right now Barry?
Haha good to see you back here. It’s boring around these times. The season needs to start already.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Oh I took a break from all SBN sites, not just this one. ;)
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Why though
He’ll be 31 next summer and has been declining. I really think he’ll get at most an MLE from a contending team or a maggette-esque mistake contract from someone else.
Marc Gasol is who I'm interested in getting.
It doesn’t look likely, but he’d definitely help us at a position that could use some tweaking. Nene is also another option that I didn’t think of. I’d kick the tires on Oden too if he stays relatively healthy next season.
Other than that, J-Rich might be a decent sign if he wants MLE money or less. But probably will want more.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Kick the tires on Oden? Oden is a star big man if he’s healthy. Like….a healthy Oden is the best player of that whole class….
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, i think he's possibly better.
But Durant’s solidified himself as a top 10 player.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
OH, that makes more sense.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
lol, I interpreted it that way too.
KD35 rulz lolz!
Oden is the highest upside, highest risk signing. Even if he’s healthy next year and into next offseason imo. Looking at BlazersEdge they even seem to be perplexed as to Oden’s physiology.
I’d love to have him, but so would the Blazers. It’d be a major coup to get him. And Gasol for that matter imo. I’ll probably but more stock into going after a guy like Nene or Perkins. Jordan might be a decent signing as a backup big.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Well if Oden was healthy, i think he and Durant are about equal.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think it'd be pretty close.
It would be a good marker to see what fans value more, offense or defense.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Fans and ESPN definitely value PPG more.
Thats why you hear arguments how Durant is the 3rd best player in the league over D Howard, Wade, and Paul because of PPG….and that he’s the 3rd best player behind Kobe is another laugh out loud ESPN fallacy.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
?
Oden has talent to be equal, but in terms of actual production, even on defensive end he’s more potential than production. Durant is a super efficient, high volume scorer, who rebounds above average for his position, and a great weakside defender.
I might value him as #2 guy if I could have anyone on Warriors. His potential is scary
What do you mean potential?
When he hasn’t been hurt his production has been off the charts.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Call me crazy BUT...
I don’t consider 9.4 ppg or 7.9 rpg off the charts. Before you site per 36, that’s assuming he wasn’t averaging a foul ever 5.5 minutes (awful) or you know… generally healthy enough to play a consistent 32-36 mpg.
It’s actually slightly embarrassing to see someone argue Oden over Durant
Oden's rebounding rates are sick. He's been injured his entire career, but it's not hard to see when healthy, how dominant he's been.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but do you expect him to ever be healthy?
He hasn’t had a season without a major injury since high school.
Well, that's the question.
I really don’t know. At this point, I would say it’s pretty unlikely.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I’ll make a couple of points here. The “rate stats don’t matter because of fouls/mpg” thing isn’t a real argument. You still use rate stats. You just then multiply by playing time to get overall productivity.
Yes, Oden fouls a lot, and that’s a point to take note of. His defense isn’t “potential”, though – well, some of it is, I wouldn’t call him the best defender in the league or anything yet, but he’s already played like a very good defensive player and shown flashes of potential to be an absolute force, in the mold of Dwight and….nobody else. Also, I’m personally not a fan of Durant’s D, even as a weakside defender, but maybe that’s just me. It’s not like he even blocks a lot of shots or picks up a lot of steals or anything….
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Durant is a good defender. Well, Synergy loves him.
He’s one of the best defenders in their database.
(The disgusting thing, is that he’s actually pretty horrible used by Brooks in that offense. If he was put in different positions in their sets, he could actually score at an even higher, and more efficient clip. Pretty gross.)
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Horrible = horribly.
ISO: edit button.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Could you post his defensive and offensive PPP?
I want to analyze it. He’s a very hard player to get a grasp on. He’s horrible on defense for 2 years, and now he’s a great defender? Cool.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure.
http://i36.tinypic.com/ip8iol.jpg
http://i37.tinypic.com/34shxl0.jpg
What I’m mostly talking about is how often he’s run off-screens, and how little his PPP yield is in those situations (and how low his spot-up shooting is, one has to think that’s due for improvement, considering he’s got a fantastic shot).
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure Presti will let coach know about this.
He’s on top of these things.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
And to the defense part:
Woah, this ranks him as elite defender, which based off my observations isn’t true.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
The cool thing about Synergy is that you can watch for yourself (which I have).
He’s disruptive. His length leads to a lot of forced turnovers. Not necessarily blocks or steals, but errors by his opponent.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Lucky!
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
as in you get to watch all the plays!
That’s awesome.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
He does have ridiculous, ridiculous length, so I could potentially see that.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
The "rate stats don’t matter because of fouls/mpg" thing isn’t a real argument.
It sure is a real argument because who cares what he can do per 36 if he can’t play 36. I knew exactly what his argument was based on and it’s worthless. he has never played more than 24 mpg because of fouling, which is probably related to being injured and just NOT playing consistently. You can say well he could be great, but till now, no he hasn’t been. He hasn’t produced anywhere near Durant and until he can play a full season or two, he can’t be compared.
As for defense, I didn’t say he was a poor defender, he’s good, but not great. He will probably become great if he plays. As you said, flashes.
Durant’s D is better than you credit it. His biggest issue defensively should be obvious, lack of strength, but he’ll improve.
Durant is a superstar. hindsight is 20/20, and while 29 out of 30 gm’s would have taken oden over durant (and I’d have been one of them) I don’t think 1 out of 30 would have done that today, knowing what we know. I just find it ridiculous anyone can even try any justify Oden and Durant comparison today.
For your first paragraph, I offer the following:
You still use rate stats. You just then multiply by playing time to get overall productivity.
Dunno if you follow baseball stats, but over at Fangraphs, when they calculate WAR, they have an offensive number for runs a players offense creates compared to average. The way they come about figuring out that number is by finding the “rate” at which they hit, subtracting out what an average player does, and then multiplying by PA’s. That is exactly the way you do it. Basketball is the same. You have to look at rate stats, the same way we look at wRC+ (or wOBA, or OPS, or OBP, or BA depending on your level of knowledge). Like I said, you multiply by playing time to get overall productivity. It fullys penalizes Oden for his lack of being on the court. You still use rate stats, though!
I’d say Oden has been somewhere in between good and great when he’s been on the court, defensively.
I’ll watch Durant more this upcoming season. Not buying his D without seeing it myself, but I’m always open to others opinions of defense and willing to look for what they think they’re seeing.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
At your rate points.
Ok, I get where you’re going but that doesn’t mean Oden is anything less than a bust at this point. Why? Cause he’s played all of 1 seasons worth of games where he averaged less than 24 mpg in 3 years. That matters.
It’s just a way of overinflating a players value when he has a few major flaws.
I’ll watch Durant more this upcoming season. Not buying his D without seeing it myself, but I’m always open to others opinions of defense and willing to look for what they think they’re seeing.
He’s a work in progress defensively, I won’t claim he’s amazing. He is a very good team defender though. OKC in general defends very well as a unit
It’s just a way of overinflating a players value when he has a few major flaws.
Nooooo it doesn’t overinflate anything, as long as you make the point that he plays less minutes.
I wouldn’t call Oden a bust simply because I don’t see how a 22 year old can possibly be a bust. He’s still got most of his career left (presumably). He’s still on the team that drafted him and has plenty of time to fulfill his expected value. To this point, of course he hasn’t given them the value they expected so far, but he has plenty of time to make up for that. Hold off on the “bust” label until we can be sure someone actually fell below expectations…..
I just want to reiterate, my points do not take him off the hook whatsoever for missed time. They handle it properly and don’t give him credit for the time he didn’t play. That’s why you multiply by playing time. It does matter, and I haven’t been making the point that it doesn’t.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
That's fair
And i wouldn’t call him a bust. It just hit a button when anyone would put him #1 on list of potential free agents or his own draft.
Yeah once you bring money into it it’s a different story, and if you told me Oden 4 years $20 mil or Horford 4 years $60 mil, I think I’d gamble Oden. But If i was to rank who I’d actually want, there is no way I can rank Oden ahead of Horford,Gasol, Carmelo and many others cause of injury factors.
And of course I did add the health disclaimer. In reality, you have to figure health into the equation, which obviously hurts his value significantly. He’s still at least somewhere near the top, even if he’s more like #7 than #1 for that FA class….
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Of the 2007 draft class.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Not if he's healthy.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Michael Jordan in a time machine back 12 years would also be best player
Doctors can’t figure out how to make either one possible
Sorry MJ wasn't the best player at age 36.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
How old are you? (genuine question)
Because at 35 (his last year in NBA 1998) he won an NBA title, won 62 games, led the NBA in scoring, still rebounded and passed pretty well. Yes I would take a 35 year old MJ on the Warriors, and he’d be our best player
Yeah, he had his worst season of his career in 98. I would suspect he’d be worse in 99. But he wouldn’t be the best player in the league. Maybe on the Warriors, but not the league.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Oden is interesting.
I can’t see Portland letting him go if he comes back and plays near a full season. If he gets hurt again, I think you have to take a shot.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I just thought “kick the tires” sounded like an understatement to me, like we might have a passing interest or something. Oden is easily one of the most desirable players in the free agent class, the only reason he isn’t THE most desirable player is health.
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Without a doubt. He's a superstar. Just an injured superstar.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
An actual 'injured' superstar.
Not T-Mac.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
wow
calling Oden a superstar before hes done anything in the NBA noteworthy …at all…..That kind of thinking is why Sam Bowie was drafted so high….matter of fact thats what Oden is until he proves something….SAM Bowie….wouldnt want a 7 foot glass jar
KeWzEe
Yes, because obviously at the time of the draft you can know ahead of time whether a guy is going to get injured or not. If you’re going to point to someone as a “bust”, at least make sure the “bust” part comes from a lack of talent/basketball ability, rather than something you can’t know ahead of time, like injuries. Blaming someone for a bad pick because of something out of their control like injuries just doesn’t make sense.
(If you want to argue they should have known Oden was a big injury risk ahead of time, that might be a fair point – I’m no doctor, so I won’t speculate on how fair that is)
by Missing Barry on Aug 9, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Superstar
Cmon now. He’s career average of less than 24 mpg and what 82 total games? Potential super star I can take, but nothing more
He's got superstar talent, and has produced at a superstar level when not injured.
His rebounding numbers are ridiculous. The talent is there, there’s no question of that.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Out of Curiosity how do you rate Biedrins
Oden in terms of rebounding is a more extreme case of Oden. He has way too big a foul problem which is half reason he doesn’t play 30 mins. Other is of course health. But 4 fouls per game in 22.1 minutes is awful (oden)
Missing Barry, look here
this is what I meant by wrongful extrapolations. You’re engendering such thinking again.
Goal: 8 seed!
by dso on Aug 5, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Nothing was even extrapolated.
When healthy, Oden has produced at a ridiculously high level. That’s a fact. There’s no conjecture there.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
he hasn't produced at a high level
he’s had a high rate of production, otherwise known as efficiency. He’s been incredibly efficient and if he were to maintain such an efficiency rate for more minutes and more games, he would then have produced at the ridiculously high level you propose. But he hasn’t yet, and to say that he’s produced at a superstar level is a wrongful extrapolation
Goal: 8 seed!
by dso on Aug 5, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about his per/36 numbers.
I’m talking about his rebound percentages and his defense. When he’s been on the court, those numbers have been elite. His problem, of course, is staying on said court.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I still don’t understand what you’re getting at here. His rate stats are very good. The evidence indicates that with more PT, rate stats don’t tend to actually change in any meaningful/significant way. So where’s the objection? His rate stats, which I think are fair to call his “talent level”, indicate he’s a very good player. Now he just has to manage to stay healthy and foul a bit less so he can play more minutes. So…..???
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I like the idea of J-Rich
Especially if we can figure out something to do with Monta in terms of a trade with expirings for an asset.
Plan A:
Go after Oden.
Plan B: Use combined money for J-Rich and AK47
Plan C: Go after Gasol, Noah, or Horford.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:30 PM PDT reply actions
To go after Oden you've have to really think he's going to be healthy again and I just don't.
I suspect someone will offer him the max. It’s a big splashy move.
But as far as providing enough wins to be worth it? I just don’t think he delivers. I suspect whatever team gets him will underperform expectations.
I don’t really understand why everybody is dying to have JRich back. I know we all have fond memories of him but on team which has Williams and Monta, there’s not a ton of room for him.
J-Rich was really good the last 2 seasons, and i don’t see him getting more than MLE.
I doubt someone offers Oden the max. And a healthy Oden is worth the max.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 5, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
You in response to Melo
I suspect someone will offer him the max. It’s a big splashy move.
But as far as providing enough wins to be worth it? I just don’t think he delivers. I suspect whatever team gets him will underperform expectations.
Melo = Oden in your eyes?…
by Goldenstarter on Aug 5, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
cut and paste error.
Not quite sure how that happened. Sorry.
I don’t think anyone will offer Oden close to the max.
Has Oden even played half a seasons worth of games in his first two years?
by dannyschmanny on Aug 5, 2010 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
He's played exactly 82 games, oddly enough.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
so he’s technically a sophomore this upcoming season?
by lameallenmark on Aug 5, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Signing Oden to a deal next season would be worse than drafting him #1 overall over Durant. Oden will forever be remembered as a horrible pick by the Blazers DO NOT SHARE RESPONSIBILITY IN LETTING THIS LOSER PLAY IN THE NBA. Oden has no talent and not a single post move. GSOM users lose a lot of credibility by trying to turn this guy into a top 20 player in the NBA, pathetic. I am confident that Warriors management is not stupid enough to sign Oden. Some of the users in favor of signing Oden should not be able to criticize any move made by the Warriors from here on out because Oden would be the worst signing of all time.
by Hundredthousanddollarpluswhipmaster on Aug 5, 2010 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions
GSOM users lose a lot of credibility by trying to turn this guy into a top 20 player in the NBA, pathetic.
Who did that?
Signing Oden isn’t as bad as drafting him ahead of Durant. There’s not as much risk with signing him. If we don’t sign Oden, do we get a shot at Durant or something?
Sick of fighting with my computer
by Reverend_Randy on Aug 5, 2010 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Why? Every GM in the NBA takes Oden over Durant.
And they would’ve been right. An unlucky outcome (thus far) based not on performance but on injury isn’t indicative of bad process.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder if they all would have.
Oden’s injuries were highly predictable. A lot of people called the pick dumb at the time, based on Oden’s injury potential and Durant’s higher ceiling.
Certainly this was one of those cases where there was a tremendous amount of conventional wisdom that you had to take Oden, but I’m not sure every GM subscribes to that.
They are still worshippers of PPG.
"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 6, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a stretch.
Oden injured a wrist ligament in high school. Beyond that, I don’t recall any major injuries being reported, and certainly nothing that would imply imminent severe structural damage to his knees. Saying his injuries, freak accidents all of them, were “highly predictable” isn’t a defensible statement, I don’t think.
I also don’t remember people thinking it was a bad pick. I’m (was? It’s hard to tell) a Sonics fan. I remember the debates. Everyone knew Oden should go first, because him reaching his ceiling would be more valuable that Durant reaching his.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 6, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Durant’s higher ceiling
Personally I’d say the 7’1 C with Oden’s physical abilities has a higher ceiling than a wing, regardless of who that wing is…
The injury thing may or may not be a fair point. I dunno. What would a real doctor have said about it, and do we have reason to think Portland ignored or discounted the doctors who they had look over Oden with a fine toothed comb’s advice?
by Missing Barry on Aug 9, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
One way to look at this is to look at all of the “franchise centers” over the last few decades. Olajuwon, Ewing, Shaq, Robinson, Howard, Duncan (who I’ll contend has been more of a center since Robinson retired), Yao. Am I missing any? (Mourning? Sampson? Daugherty?)
That’s a whole lot of guys who have played in NBA finals, not a whole lot (two) who didn’t or hasn’t yet. The ‘franchise center’ seems to be a pretty good way to get to an NBA finals. It’s not a sure thing. It may not mean winning, and there are other ways to get there, but it sure seems to improve the odds. Oden was projected by some as having that elite talent to be a franchise center worthy of a number 1 draft pick and not just a #1 by default in an off year. Aiming for a franchise center when one seems to be available seems like a reasonable gamble.
by jae on Aug 9, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Regarding Oden
I wouldn’t put too much credence in his rate stats because it’s easy to be efficient when you play few minutes and have a small sample size of games. As the season wears on injuries take their toll; a player like Oden, who’s always had injury issues, could arguably see a drop in efficiency just from the normal wear and tear of a basketball season. It’s also arguable that increasing Oden’s minutes will lead to lesser efficiency because he’ll get tired and foul (the two appear to be correlated to a certain extent).
in other words, efficiency doesn’t always extrapolate at a flat rate. In many cases it’s affected by input, which in this case is MPG
Goal: 8 seed!
There has been no conlcusion reached on the theory that increased minutes negatively affects rate stats.
If anything, the opposite has been show to be true (see: The Paul Millsap Doctrine).
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
see: Dean Oliver's Skill Curves
we had a fat discussion about this a few weeks prior
Goal: 8 seed!
by dso on Aug 5, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm aware of Oliver's theory on Skill Curves (and I have his book). But my point stands.
No one has ever shown them to actually exist, and no one has been able to replicate Oliver’s work (to my knowledge). Also, those are offensive skill curves, and have mainly to do with usage vs. efficiency (and nothing to do with defense and rebounding, which is where Oden’s value lies). Moreover, his conclusions can easily be explained by the Price of Anarchy, which I’m more inclined to believe.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
you don't think there's a correlation between defensive ability
and endurance?
It sucks cuz there’s no proof either way, and cuz every player has a different endurance level and such. But if Oden has shown anything during his NBA time, it’s that his endurance level sucks, both in-game and throughout a season. This could be evidenced through his fouls, as in you’re more likely to foul when you’re tired, but no correlations have been drawn between the two yet so I can’t forward that as concrete evidence. But overall I think if you increase Oden’s minutes, you negatively affect his endurance and he won’t be able to put up defensive/rebounding numbers at a similar rate as low minute situations
Goal: 8 seed!
by dso on Aug 5, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I mean, it's hard to say.
The easy answer is that these are all professional athletes, and outside of an extreme case like Oliver Miller, most are capable of sustained physical output. Yao Ming is probably the most physically-challenged player in the NBA, and even he’s been able to average 32.7 MPG for his career.
You can see it in a guy like Steph, at the end of the season in that Portland game, when he’s just gassed from having to play 44+ minutes for an extended period; he definitely suffered from fatigue (but, even then, he had an amazing game and led his team to a win). How much that affects performance, though, is impossible to say. I would posit that it doesn’t matter too much.
by Spider Jerusalem on Aug 5, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Why should defensive ability - and not overall ability - suffer with endurance?
I mean, few things require as much work on a basketball court as going after rebounds, and yet Oden does that very very well.
Furthermore, endurance issues tend to be balanced out. When a player is so gassed that he’s no longer your best option, you sub him out. It seems like you’re trying to count Oden’s poor endurance against him twice: once for his low minutes, and then again by suggesting that his minutes aren’t as effective.
I’m also not sure to what extent his minutes are because of low endurance or because his coach is protecting him because he recognizes that he’s relatively fragile.
And secret option C
foul trouble, to an extent.
Sick of fighting with my computer
by Reverend_Randy on Aug 6, 2010 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
we had a fat discussion about this a few weeks prior
And in that discussion, it doesn’t appear that you picked up on what “efficiency” means if you’re confounding Oliver’s skill curve (mostly a factor of usage) with minutes played (which is not a factor of usage).
by jae on Aug 6, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
efficiency doesn’t always extrapolate at a flat rate.
Well sure, in the real world few things do. But based on everything I’ve read, a player’s rate numbers aren’t any more likely to decrease with increased MPG than they are to increase. If you have some evidence to the contrary, I’d love to see it.
In the case of Oden, there are a couple of extenuating circumstances: (1) he’s a personal foul machine (6.4 per 36!), and, (2) thus far, he’s had a glass jaw. But I’ve never seen anything to suggest that the “normal wear and tear” of playing, say, 30 minutes a game, would make his rate numbers drop significantly.
Straight up, I’d probably take Oden over ‘Melo. If you consider that ’Melo will almost certainly command the max, while Oden could likely be had for significantly less than that, the gap widens. Taking into account the state of our roster and the players’ likely salary demands, I’d probably take Oden, Noah, Horford, Chandler, Gasol, Nene, and Kirilenko (roughly in that order) before ’Melo.
There will be no extra point!
in other words, efficiency doesn’t always extrapolate at a flat rate. In many cases it’s affected by input, which in this case is MPG
This SOUNDS logical. The problem with it is that it’s actually, for the most part, not true. Guy who produce really well at 10MPG tend to produce really well at 20mpg. Guys who produce well at 20MPG tend to produce well at 30mpg.
Nor should you talk about Oden’s healthy games as a “small sample size of games” at this point. He’s played in 82 NBA games at this point. That’s not a small sample size. If you had a rookie center who had just put up Oden’s career numbers for his rookie season (over .600TS%, 12reb/36, etc) you would be very excited about seeing what he could do going forward. His foul rate is high, but foul rate is one of those things which OFTEN comes down as a player gets a few years of experience.
Also,
I think injuries and games missed are not being properly factored into our statistics. Yes, in some cases injuries are a matter of bad luck, but there’s also an element of inherent affinity for injury, as well as games missed being (sometimes) a reflection of work ethic, endurance, and a willingness to play through minor injuries. Of course, it’ll probably be impossible to generalize how much of it is just bad luck and how much of those other elements are in play, but I think the unequivocal removal of missed games from our stats is creating some aberrant results.
The bottom line is a missed game hurts your team because you can’t produce for your team. Even if it’s largely random, it needs to somehow be factored into our statistics, especially if a player exhibits a consistent tendency to get injured. How to do though I have no idea.
Goal: 8 seed!
You might try
using WP instead of WP48 :) Games are just aggregations of minutes, right?
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
We keep track of games played in our stats. Oden’s team has played 246 games since he was drafted. He’s played in 82. I agree we probably haven’t figured out exactly how much missing 2/3 of his games means, but we can definitely look at that and know we have to raise the possibility of him missing games in the future by some amount. And like I said, total production = rate * games (or minutes), so we still can factor in how his missed games affect his team (which is negatively, as you point out).
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
If I were GM and could not get Melo to come to the Warriors I would try to add Kendrick Perkins and Arron Afflalo.
Both Perkins and Afflalo will be difficult to sign but I think Perkins has to be frustrated with the Celtics signing Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal. Afflalo probably would not mind living in California again.
by Hundredthousanddollarpluswhipmaster on Aug 5, 2010 6:40 PM PDT reply actions
Of course we all want Carmelo or Marc gasol..
But let’s be realistic, near would want to come.. Or we could afford. I’m thinking along the lines of al thorton and Thaddeus young.. And hopefully we can draft a center like fab melo (think Demarcus cousins-ish)
Curry/pargo/Lin
Ellis/Williams/bell
Wright/thorton
Lee/young/udoh
Beans/ melo
Sign a FA center
We lose,
The Warriors will have the money to sign a big time free agent next season.
Why would you want to turn the Warriors into a street ball team again? They have been trying to get away from that by shipping Randolph for one of the most productive double double players in the league in David Lee.
by Hundredthousanddollarpluswhipmaster on Aug 5, 2010 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
We have 8 players due over $47M on our roster next year. Add in a first round pick. The salary cap is at $58M this next season, so $60M is probably the max for next year. I’m not sure how far we’ll actually under the cap, but it might not be enough for a big time free agent….then again, maybe it will be….
by Missing Barry on Aug 5, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I don't want 'Melo
Over the last 5 years he’s ranked an average 5th out of 8 on the Nuggets for wp48 among players with over 1000 minutes per season. In that period his best WP48 was .143 – Curry, dWright, Biedrens (!) and dLee all beat that last year, and it barely ranks ahead of Reggie. Over 5 years, his average wp48 is .098 – dead average for the league as a whole.
In that time he’s produced 19.26 wins. AB produced 27.27 over the same period, and Ellis produced 11.88. That includes major injuries to both AB and Ellis.
So why do I want to get all excited about ’Melo, exactly?
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
Correction - the wins produced is over 3 years
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
And just to drive the point home
In the same period David Lee produced 49.14 wins – 2.4 times as many, on a MUCH worse team. LeBron and Howard, of course, exceeds 20 wins a year, every year. But here’s the real kicker – in 2008, on the same team, Marcus Camby produced 19.42 wins all by himself.
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
Uh, cuz he scores a lot and is a big name?
:)
Carmelo’s a good player, but it’s really hard to see how he’s worth the amount of money that’s going to be thrown at him.
He's definitely good
but if that’s all he can do with Billups around, he’s not a viable franchise player, even if the cost didn’t matter at all. Given our current roster, I’d much rather see someone like Oden, Cousins, or Thabeet on the team. In that order. Behind AB.
But that’s based on two things. The first is that we already have enough starting talent to make the playoffs, even starting Monta. I’m coming more to the idea you brought up a while ago, that this is reasonably a 50+ win team. It could even win a championship, although the odds are against it. As small as we are, as young as we are, at the pace we play. It’s been done, and long-time Warrior fans should remember when. :)
Potential is what you pitch when you have low current value.
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