As promised to GovSteph, here's a breakdown of why I'm confident Andrew Bynum doesn't help the Lakers win titles. Among other things. It's got some clues to dynasty building, too.
Playoff Wins Contributed, 2006-2010
| 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | Total 3 years | Total 5 years | Titles | Value | |
| James | 3.41 | 6.56 | 3.13 | 4.35 | 1.56 | 13.1 | 19.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryant | 4.08 | 5.7 | 4.28 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 14.06 | 15.43 | 2 | 30.86 |
| Howard | 2.98 | 7.58 | 2.75 | 0.66 | 0 | 13.31 | 13.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Kidd | 1.35 | 2.47 | 0.92 | 5.67 | 3.2 | 4.74 | 13.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Gasol | 5.78 | 5.14 | 2.61 | 0 | 0.05 | 13.53 | 13.58 | 2 | 27.16 |
| Duncan | 1.06 | 0.62 | 3.79 | 4.28 | 3.56 | 5.47 | 13.31 | 1 | 13.31 |
| Rondo | 5.26 | 4.24 | 3.32 | 0 | 0 | 12.82 | 12.82 | 1 | 12.82 |
| Billups | 0.47 | 4.09 | 2.19 | 2.72 | 3.33 | 6.75 | 12.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Odom | 2.38 | 4.36 | 3.62 | 0.93 | 1.08 | 10.36 | 12.37 | 2 | 24.74 |
| Nowitski | 1.36 | 2.54 | 0.71 | 0 | 7.35 | 4.61 | 11.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Nash | 3.14 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.21 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Garnett | 2.38 | 0 | 6.02 | 0 | 0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 1 | 8.4 |
| Wade | 1.62 | 1.28 | 0 | -0.14 | 5.49 | 2.9 | 8.25 | 1 | 8.25 |
| Ginnobli | 1.4 | 0 | 1.25 | 3.64 | 1.52 | 2.65 | 7.81 | 1 | 7.81 |
| Marion | -0.38 | 0 | 0 | 2.65 | 5.18 | -0.38 | 7.45 | 0 | 0 |
| deron W | 1.86 | 0.62 | 2.4 | 2.34 | 0 | 4.88 | 7.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Wallace | 0 | 0.14 | 1.4 | 1.87 | 3.46 | 1.54 | 6.87 | 0 | 0 |
| Boozer | 1.54 | 0.85 | 0.58 | 3.71 | 0 | 2.97 | 6.68 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierce | 2.96 | 0.92 | 2.45 | 0 | 0 | 6.33 | 6.33 | 1 | 6.33 |
| Posey | 0 | 0.35 | 2.91 | 0.75 | 2.26 | 3.26 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen | 1.48 | 0.74 | 2.82 | 0 | 0 | 5.04 | 5.04 | 1 | 5.04 |
| Paul | 0 | 0.46 | 3.78 | 0 | 0 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 0 | 0 |
| Iglaskaus | -0.13 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 2.34 | 0.18 | 1.26 | 3.78 | 0 | 0 |
| Stoudamire | 0.39 | 0 | 0.13 | 2.45 | 0 | 0.52 | 2.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Bynum | 2.12 | -0.97 | 0 | 0.27 | -0.05 | 1.15 | 1.37 | 2 | 2.74 |
| Bosh | 0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0 | 0 |
This table contains the summary value for playoff wins produced, using data from the WP test site. Note that the site is wonky at the moment - Kobe isn't listed in the Laker 2010 playoffs at all. It's sorted based on total playoff wins produced over the last 5 years.
There's Bynum down near the bottom. His well-above average wp48 pays off during the regular season, but he's been negative in the playoffs half the time, and never among the top 3 players. Ray Allen is down there too, and Pierce isn't much higher - what gives?
The first answer is - Allen and Bynum aren't part of their teams' Big 3, and Pierce is number 3 for the Celts. Who's number 1 for the Celts? Rondo. For 2 years now. And he was number 2 behind KG when they won. Rajon Rondo is the real deal, and the best reason for the Celts to look forward. (I can't stand his game, but that's the breaks.)
Bynum isn't even in the top 4 for the Lakers sometimes - Fisher has done better at times. Lamar Odom has been incredibly consistent in the number 2 to 4 range. Kobe and Gasol are the most interesting pair, though - Kobe has been 1 on the Lakers twice, Gasol once. But Kobe produced in the playoffs without Pau, the reverse isn't true.
And way up at the top, you've got LeBron. No question he's a monster, even though Nowitski and Howard both produced higher single-season playoff totals. In terms of value contributed to a championship, LeBron has..... nothing. And over the last 3 years, Kobe has the most contributed value.
So - we learn that the "three star" model works very very well in the real world, and the single-star model not so much. Bear that in mind when thinking about our team, and who we should add. We learn that Bynum can help get you there, but hasn't done much once he's there. We learn that Rajon Rondo is someone you certainly can buid around. And we learn that although LBJ is almost certainly the best player in the NBA, Kobe is the current player you'd most want on your championship dynasty.
Sorry, Guv - it's just the way the numbers fall.
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