Who wins Championships?

by Rasputin10 on Aug 9, 2010 8:06 PM PDT

As promised to GovSteph, here's a breakdown of why I'm confident Andrew Bynum doesn't help the Lakers win titles. Among other things. It's got some clues to dynasty building, too.

Playoff Wins Contributed, 2006-2010

	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	Total 3 years	Total 5 years	Titles	Value
James	3.41	6.56	3.13	4.35	1.56	13.1	19.01	0	0
Bryant	4.08	5.7	4.28	0.55	0.82	14.06	15.43	2	30.86
Howard	2.98	7.58	2.75	0.66	0	13.31	13.97	0	0
Kidd	1.35	2.47	0.92	5.67	3.2	4.74	13.61	0	0
Gasol	5.78	5.14	2.61	0	0.05	13.53	13.58	2	27.16
Duncan	1.06	0.62	3.79	4.28	3.56	5.47	13.31	1	13.31
Rondo	5.26	4.24	3.32	0	0	12.82	12.82	1	12.82
Billups	0.47	4.09	2.19	2.72	3.33	6.75	12.8	0	0
Odom	2.38	4.36	3.62	0.93	1.08	10.36	12.37	2	24.74
Nowitski	1.36	2.54	0.71	0	7.35	4.61	11.96	0	0
Nash	3.14	0	0.5	2.21	3.82	3.64	9.67	0	0
Garnett	2.38	0	6.02	0	0	8.4	8.4	1	8.4
Wade	1.62	1.28	0	-0.14	5.49	2.9	8.25	1	8.25
Ginnobli	1.4	0	1.25	3.64	1.52	2.65	7.81	1	7.81
Marion	-0.38	0	0	2.65	5.18	-0.38	7.45	0	0
deron W	1.86	0.62	2.4	2.34	0	4.88	7.22	0	0
Wallace	0	0.14	1.4	1.87	3.46	1.54	6.87	0	0
Boozer	1.54	0.85	0.58	3.71	0	2.97	6.68	0	0
Pierce	2.96	0.92	2.45	0	0	6.33	6.33	1	6.33
Posey	0	0.35	2.91	0.75	2.26	3.26	6.27	0	0
Allen	1.48	0.74	2.82	0	0	5.04	5.04	1	5.04
Paul	0	0.46	3.78	0	0	4.24	4.24	0	0
Iglaskaus	-0.13	0.48	0.91	2.34	0.18	1.26	3.78	0	0
Stoudamire	0.39	0	0.13	2.45	0	0.52	2.97	0	0
Bynum	2.12	-0.97	0	0.27	-0.05	1.15	1.37	2	2.74
Bosh	0	0	0.36	0.22	0	0.36	0.58	0	0

This table contains the summary value for playoff wins produced, using data from the WP test site. Note that the site is wonky at the moment - Kobe isn't listed in the Laker 2010 playoffs at all. It's sorted based on total playoff wins produced over the last 5 years.

There's Bynum down near the bottom. His well-above average wp48 pays off during the regular season, but he's been negative in the playoffs half the time, and never among the top 3 players. Ray Allen is down there too, and Pierce isn't much higher - what gives?

The first answer is - Allen and Bynum aren't part of their teams' Big 3, and Pierce is number 3 for the Celts. Who's number 1 for the Celts? Rondo. For 2 years now. And he was number 2 behind KG when they won. Rajon Rondo is the real deal, and the best reason for the Celts to look forward. (I can't stand his game, but that's the breaks.)

Bynum isn't even in the top 4 for the Lakers sometimes - Fisher has done better at times. Lamar Odom has been incredibly consistent in the number 2 to 4 range. Kobe and Gasol are the most interesting pair, though - Kobe has been 1 on the Lakers twice, Gasol once. But Kobe produced in the playoffs without Pau, the reverse isn't true.

And way up at the top, you've got LeBron. No question he's a monster, even though Nowitski and Howard both produced higher single-season playoff totals. In terms of value contributed to a championship, LeBron has..... nothing. And over the last 3 years, Kobe has the most contributed value.

So - we learn that the "three star" model works very very well in the real world, and the single-star model not so much. Bear that in mind when thinking about our team, and who we should add. We learn that Bynum can help get you there, but hasn't done much once he's there. We learn that Rajon Rondo is someone you certainly can buid around. And we learn that although LBJ is almost certainly the best player in the NBA, Kobe is the current player you'd most want on your championship dynasty.

Sorry, Guv - it's just the way the numbers fall.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 2 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

And we learn that although LBJ is almost certainly the best player in the NBA, Kobe is the current player you’d most want on your championship dynasty.

No. Kobe’s played in so many more games than anyone else besides other Lakers, that he will be near the top for the league. Lebron hasn’t played in nearly as many games and is still within reach.
And you remain pretty ignorant on the subject tbh. You told me Gasol wasn’t the best player on the Lakers this year, yet his WP48 the last two seasons, and postseasons are higher. You cherry pick numbers to prove your point, blah.
BTW, can you link this data? Show WP48 for all the players instead of overall wins because that favors whoever plays more games (obviously Kobe and Gasol to prove your point). And thanks for the numbers on Bynum.

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 9, 2010 11:31 PM PDT reply actions

To prove my point over the past 3 years:

Kobe and Gasol 67 playoff games.
Lebron had 38 games. And he’s only one win behind Kobe for the past 3 years.
Yeah nice Fox News impersonation with the biassed analysis.

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 9, 2010 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions

BTW, can you link this data?

http://www.permanent-sketch.com/WinsProduced/ for the raw data, I built the spreadsheet. Let me know if you find errors and I’ll fix them, or if there’s any significant figures I missed in terms of wins produced, not rates.

The trick here – and I mean that as interpretation, not as scam – is who actually produced the most wins. Not who would have if minutes were different, because we’re not going for hypothetical. We’re looking at the numbers for what actually happened. WP48 is appropriate for future calculations, because it’s time-independent. I didn’t tell you Pau wasn’t the best player on the Lakers – I said it’s more complicated than that, and that Kobe contributes more to championships. He has so done, and frankly it surprised me.

It gets even more complicated when you realize that Pau and Kobe appear to have lifted each others’ productivity.

If you want to win playoff games, you go with LeBron, no question at all. He’s far and away the best at it. The fact remains that over the last 5 years – the data limits of the test site – that hasn’t been accomplished. It’s the combination of Kobe, Pau, and Odom that are the best at it, and of them, Kobe is very slightly historically the best for this period. He is the most consistent at producing wins that lead to championships. He may be declining, and Odom may be declining faster – we don’t know yet. We do know that as of right now he’s been the best active player at one thing and one thing only – winning multiple championships over the last 5 years. (Given 10 years of data, and it would be interesting to compare SAS to LAK. I strongly suspect Duncan would come out on top.)

This wouldn’t come as any surprise to LeBron, you know. Riles talked with him about big 3 theory, and sold him on it.

The good news is that the Warriors, either through design or luck, have put together a team that fits the big 3 model pretty well. The better news is that even if Monta doesn’t get more efficient, we don’t actually need him to – we just need him to not get worse. If he matches his career-best year as measured by WP48 we will be a contender even if everyone else is at their average. The same is true for dWright, and either would have the third-highest wp48 among our real big three. It wouldn’t much matter which one. Or everyone else can stay the same and Steph can play a whole year at the level he ended it at, and we’d probably get the same kind of result.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Aug 10, 2010 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Looking at the last 2 years(which are the years the Fakers have won the title)

Gasol has been their best player. The year before he was not, but they didn’t win the title that season, so that point is irrelevant. If you are using information from 2000-2003, it’d be nice if that were present. But the fact remains Gasol has been the better player the past 2 years. I cannot deny having Kobe Bryant on your team is a good way to win a championship, but i think what it comes down to is him being probably the 2nd best Robin in the history of the league, behind Pippen. He’s never been the best player on a championship team, but he’s been the 2nd or 3rd best (this year) 5 times, which still makes him a great player.

It’s the combination of Kobe, Pau, and Odom that are the best at it, and of them, Kobe is very slightly historically the best for this period.

See this is where i think you are being misleading. Yes, over the past 5 years, overall Kobe has produced more wins in the playoffs, but once again, he’s played more games than Gasol, and if you look at the years they have actually won the title, Gasol is their best player. So do you value the guy who was better for 3 years in which they didn’t win the title, and thus is slightly better overall in this 5 year span, or do you value the player who made the biggest contributions in the year they did win the title? I take the latter which is Gasol, but i’m curious what you think about this.
I think i may have misinterpreted some things you have said, but i’m still curious as to why you said “please stfu” in response to “So we can finally agree Gasol is better than Kobe”. I don’t get why someone who has this information available to yourself, and has come to similar conclusions about players using wp48 would be so abrasive about this question.

(Given 10 years of data, and it would be interesting to compare SAS to LAK. I strongly suspect Duncan would come out on top.)

You don’t think Shaq would come out on top?

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 10, 2010 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Over the last 10 years? I think Duncan

but it would be interesting to see. I’m just not interested enough to do the research and number crunching :)

Actually, Kobe contributed more wins last year than Gasol did. Over three series of championship games, Pau was 3-2-1 in contributions on the Lakers – clearly a trend, and if they win next year, expect him to pass Kobe in the “best at it” game. Kobe has been 1-1-2, Odom has been 2-3-3 and is clearly into his relative decline on this scale. What Kobe has done on the larger scale is be in the top 3 for wins produced each of those years, when no one else has.

I thought about weighting differently and assigning values for years in which you made it to x round of the playoffs. I haven’t done that yet, and it may yield different results for individuals.

That comment – for which my work on this is partly an apology, is because the discussion wasn’t about who was greater, and really had nothing to do with either of them. What interested me in their numbers is how they have interacted, and what that implies about team (or positional) dynamics in terms of efficiency.

That is – Monta had one very good year, statistically. Is that pure luck, or was it situational dynamics, or a combination? I began to wonder to what degree the absence of AB, rather than Baron Davis, might be a factor. No answers are forthcoming. What seems reasonable, though, is at best Monta is a “dependent” player who needs at least one other above-average or very good player be fully productive.

It appears that Davis may be the same – his rise in productivity coincided with Biedren’s rise above wp48 .200, and dropped as soon as he left. The same may be true of dWright, but hopefully we never have to find out. We know this is not true of either Lee or Biedrens, and we can certainly suspect it’s not true of Curry given his very rapid development.

So that’s why – it was just totally irrelevant to what I was thinking very hard about.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Aug 10, 2010 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions

It appears that Davis may be the same

Honestly, with Baron, it’s all mental. When he’s listening to his coaches, and making sound decisions and is motivated to be in shape/put effort in, he’s an excellent player. We got that Baron his first 28 games in GS, and we got that Baron for about a year and a half during We Believe (and the “contract year” part really helped, too, I think). Most of Baron’s career he hasn’t been that player. He’s feuded with coaches, and flat out refused to listen/do what they say. He’s been a selfish chucker on the court, and not much of a worker off the court, at least basketball-wise (consistently showing up out of shape to camp). Bottom line – Baron is a headcase, when the good Baron shows up, he was a star, when the bad Baron shows up…..ugh. A guy you do not want on your team.

by Missing Barry on Aug 10, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions

And I don't like to spread rumors,

but my friend’s brother’s girlfriend used to date Baron Davis, and she told me he was a BIG pothead. Not really surprising to hear based off what we’ve seen.

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 10, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions

fantastic!

that means the reason he was better here than elsewhere is…. we have better pot!

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Aug 10, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, she said he was extremely motivated his last year and a half here

because he wanted a final big contract, and he wanted to win too. But once he went to the Clippers he went back to smoking pot, focusing on his films and friends, not working out, etc.

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 10, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok thats good to know.

Because overall you’ve been a very good poster, but that comment just seemed really random, and mean.

To your observations that Monta is a dependent player-totally agree. But i think Biedrins is too, to an extent. He needs to have a good pick and roll passer. Jackson was an elite player running this play with his size, and passing ability in this situation. Baron too. Monta…not so much. Curry…he hasn’t shown he can run it well, but honestly we haven’t seen him run it much to conclude much of anything. Biedrins offense needs a good passer to get him the ball, and i think we solved this problem by adding Lee(great passer) and giving Curry more power.
I think this could be a career year for AB if he stays healthy.

"Everybody loves Basketball-Reference.com. Except the Kobe fans".- DubsFan408

by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 10, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Just image if all cylinders are firing this year!

IE: Healthy year(and that include YOU too Brandon ), AB best year, Monta becomes effecient/adds consistant defense, Dorrell breaks out, Curry/Lee are as great as expected, Lin and Udoh develope…ahhhhh.

by Only In Fairfax on Aug 11, 2010 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

Best part of every Warrior's season is the preseason.

Just imagine….
Haha, I’m falling victim to it this year again too. Just imagine.

by WestCoastWarrior on Aug 12, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Aug 13, 2010 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions

So basically...

And we learn that although LBJ is almost certainly the best player in the NBA, Kobe is the current player you’d most want on your championship dynasty.

I’m assuming you’re referencing the last column to make this statement because it’s the only place where Kobe beats out LBJ and you provide zero written evidence to support this claim otherwise.

So, by extension, Bynum is better to build around than LBJ… cuz, you know, he has 2 points in the “Playoff wins times championships” category while LeBron has zero. Similarly James Posey (who you’ve neglected to give credit for not one, but two championships) is more valuable than either of those two useless goons who don’t contribute to championships. Although all statistical measures known to basketball analysts suggest that LeBron is the best basketball player by a mile, Kobe, Bynum, and James Posey have each won championships and are thus more valuable if you want to build a championship dynasty.

:-P. In other words, this is drivel. Can’t wait till the season begins.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Aug 13, 2010 4:24 PM PDT reply actions

Certainly

if that was anywhere near what I said. :)

Over the last 5 years, LeBron has contributed more playoff wins than anyone except Kobe. Except for finals, that is. Over the last 3 years, no one, including LeBron, has contributed more playoff wins of any kind than Kobe, with Gasol close behind. My point is that playoff wins in isolation don’t build championships. Building the winningest, most productive team in the regular season didn’t do it for LeBron, and to give them credit, Cleveland did that. On paper, the only way Boston can win is if they somehow neutralize his efficiency down to normal superstar levels. If they can do that, they can win…..

Kobe has been better to win championships because he’s consistently playing near a level to be top3 on a champion. Same for Pau. LBJ is so good he gives you the illusion one player can do it all. At least he did, until he finally himself said he couldn’t. Like Kobe, he distorts peoples’ perceptions. By fitting the illusion better, he presents a greater risk.

It’s appropriate that so many people seem disillusioned by LBJ. He’s now free of that illusion, disillusioned, and has the right running mates to change it. If you look at history, yes, I think Kobe was a better choice to build around, distortions and all. Going forward, I for one look forward to beating our new Miami overlords once in a while. At best.

Baseball is a chamber orchestra. Football is a marching band. Basketball is a modern quintet. jazz, rock, hiphop, pop/ all about the beat./ still my revolution not/ til you dance through it.

by Rasputin10 on Aug 13, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions