2010-2011 Oklahoma City Thunder Preview: Kevin Durant is Unstoppable (baby) :: Around the Association

by olympicmike on Sep 11, 2010 8:43 PM PDT in NBA

I love this graphic from Ball Don't Lie. They definitely captured his body type.

As we roll through the league taking a look at every team in the NBA, it's my turn to take on the OKC Thunder. You couldn't help but take notice of this team last season. Durant was the league's leading scorer with 30+ PPG (and he scored with a higher efficiency than any of the other top scorers), they won 50 games, and they lost a very exciting first round series to the eventual NBA Champs. So what have they been up to this offseason to push them over the edge and put them in title contention? Well, uh... not that much really. I guess that's okay when you've already assembled the league's best collection of up and coming young talent. Let's take a closer look after the jump...

Heading into this offseason Thunder GM Sam Presti must have been pretty pleased with what his team had accomplished. After only managing to win 23 games in '08-'09 the Thunder did surprisingly little to improve the team. They made good use of their hard earned (sitting through 59 losses is hard work) draft picks by adding James Harden and Serge Ibaka, and decided to retain Scott Brooks as head coach despite going 22-47 after taking over for P.J. Carlesimo. Not to play down the value of Harden and Ibaka (they were both significant contributors to the team's turnaround), but it seemed like Presti was banking on internal development more than a roster overhaul. Having gone to the Jae School of Basketball Theory I'm not a big believer in internal development, but it seemed to be working for Presti as the team took a giant leap from the lottery to a dangerous playoff team.

Thanks to the success of last season Presti looked to continue with his winning formula this summer. Start with a player with a shot at being the best in the game, add good young players through the draft, and fill any remaining holes with reasonably priced veteran role players. Then, watch the team get better. Sure, it was easy to continue to add talent without any major trades or signings when the team was losing lots of games. A string of quality draft picks including the likes of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka is hard to maintain though. As the team gets better it gets inherently harder to add young cheap talent. Of course, Presti didn't let that stop him. He took advantage of a Hornets team that was in need of some instant salary relief to avoid the luxury tax when he relieved them of Morris Peterson's contract (set to expire after this season anyway) and traded two low first round picks to move up and grab Cole Aldrich. So yet again he added a good young piece to an ever improving team. Not the flashiest of moves, but another example of a shrewd GM taking advantage of the money driven NBA landscape and coming out on top talent-wise. He was also able to add some stability moving forward by extending Durant, and also extending Coach Brooks through 2012. Presti himself received a multiyear contract extension, so it seems that the Thunder have doubled down on the core that they've put together. So who are they, and how good can they be?

THE FRANCHISE TALENT

KEVIN DURANT

This is a Warriors blog so I'm going to take a minute to whine here... Why can't we end up with a player like this?!?! Durant looks like he's going to be a legit top tier NBA stud for years to come. It shouldn't be much of a surprise really. Everyone who loves basketball took notice of this kid when he was playing a Texas. We at GSoM were drooling over him back then, as evidenced by long time community member and GSoM's newest Contributing Writer, Sleepy Freud's Blue Note style album cover pictured below featuring his dream line-up heading into the '07 draft lottery.

Blue_note_ellis_medium

For the record Sleepy would totally accept an updated version of Curry, Ellis, Durant, Lee, and Andris...

Yeah, I think I could live with that.

Sure his career had a bit of a rough start as he was played out of position at Shooting Guard by P.J. Carlesimo his first season and a half. He still scored a bunch of points, but he was doing so at well below average efficiency and not rebounding as well as he should. Here are some of my thoughts on P.J.'s decision to play him at SG from back when Durant was still trying to find his NBA legs.

I totally agree that this was a very poor decision. Not only does it not take advantage of some of his strengths (rebounding in particular) but it sends the wrong message to a young impressionable player. It basically says don’t worry about improving your strength and taking advantage of your frame, you can just chuck from the outside and we’ll be happy with that. IMO they should have played him at 3/4 and let him have the rude awakening that is playing against the real men in this league. That would have hopefully inspired a work ethic that could last his entire career instead of breeding a lazy chucker's mentality that could ruin what may have been a stellar career. I still think he could turn out to be a good-great player but only if someone comes along and reminds him that he is a forward and he needs to work hard to achieve something in this league.

Sure, it may have been a harsh take on his early struggles, but it seems like Scott Brooks was that guy that came along and put him at Small Forward where he belongs. He also made his secondary position Power Forward instead of Shooting Guard.

Now that Durant has played a full season under Brooks he already seems to have cemented himself as a top 5 player in the league for years to come. At the moment there is no better scorer in the NBA. He rebounds well, and his defense is underrated. You've gotta love this guy. Ok, I'm going to move on before I start whining again...

THE YOUNG CORE

RUSSELL WESTBROOK / JAMES HARDEN / JEFF GREEN / SERGE IBAKA

Here are four guys who are already heavy contributors to the team, and all under 24 years old. It's a more than solid group that can still be expected to significantly improve. Getting back the the old internal development debate, this is about as good of a situation as you can be in if you are looking for your team to grow and get better without shaking things up too much. Westbrook in particular has shown lots of promise. He's already shown he can be a good distributor and rebounder, and while he's had a hard time finding a way to score effectively he's shown some promise in that area too. If he stays aggressive he could see his free throw attempts rise as he learns to take contact in the NBA.

THABO SEFOLOSHA

He's the old man of this group at 25 years old, and while I'm not sure if he will keep improving, he's already proven he can contribute. He may not be able to score in this league, he's a great guy to have playing on the wing alongside Durant as he's shown he can be a shut down perimeter defender and rebound his position well. His skills definitely complement Durant, and I hear he's a nice guy so he might compliment him too (I went to the Jae school of comedy too).

COLE ALDRICH

Presti targeted Aldrich as the piece he needed to solidify the Thunder frontcourt. Before landing Cole, Ibaka was the only good rebounding big on the team moving forward. Presti is hoping Aldrich can come in to grab boards, defend, and score efficiently inside like he did at Kansas. Here's Draft Express:

At 9.8 possessions per-game, Aldrich didn’t see too many looks on Kansas’ loaded roster, but his 1.037 PPP overall ranks him well above average in our sample, as do his low 11.9% turnover percentage and 11.9% shots-fouled percentage.

With the ball getting worked around to make sure all of KU’s options got their touches, Aldrich relied on post possessions for his offense. He got nearly 60% of his possessions down low, scoring a third ranked 1.029 PPP in the process. He also turned the ball over at the second lowest rate (8.7%). Clearly, Aldrich’s decisive approach and size were too much for most college big men to handle.

Despite the fact that Kansas removed number of quick hitter plays that afford Aldrich some easy baskets as a junior from their playbook, he finished 82.6% of the shots resulting from basket cuts. Easily the top-ranked finisher in the top-5 at 1.318 PPS, Aldrich’s low usage didn’t afford him the opportunity to put up huge scoring numbers, but he looked solid in a role that very well could be similar to the one he’ll play next season, and could benefit from getting more of his touches as a finisher instead of being forced to create in the post.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cole-Aldrich-1250/#ixzz0zBlMKWyY
http://www.draftexpress.com

Sounds like he should fit right in with the Thunder.

PREDICTIONS

I'm generally horrible at prediction, but I'm VERY confident in these...

Durant wins two MVP awards this season (don't ask me how, just bet on it)
The Thunder win 54 games
Zorgon wins SB Nation MVB (Most Valuable Blogger)
Russell Westbrook fools around and gets a triple double... like 7 times
Serge Ibaka takes Jeff Green's starting spot by the All-Star break

Hey!! Look at that!

Welcome to Loud City

Long time GSoMer (traitor?) Zorgon is blogging the Thunder on SBN! If you haven't checked out the site, Zorgon and the rest of the Loud City Crew do a great job covering the team.

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Comments

Mike I like how you try to fight the misconceptions about PPG=good player on your posts. You do it very well.

And I think you should add Durantula is a monster defensively now as well.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 10, 2010 9:38 PM PDT reply actions

And I think you should add Durantula is a monster defensively now as well.

I did mention that he was underrated, but without having access to the synergy numbers, and honestly not watching his defense that closely I chose to play it safe. I try not to say stuff that I can’t defend. I’ve read you and Spider talk about Durant’s incredible defense according to Synergy, but I left it out because I haven’t had the chance to check the stuff out thoroughly enough.

Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^

by olympicmike on Sep 10, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok, that is fair enough. And you should honestly sign up for Synergy.

You can’t tell me you’ve not spent 30$ worse than that.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 10, 2010 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Haha

That’s true, but at this point I’m just going to wait for the new season to start.

Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^

by olympicmike on Sep 10, 2010 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Great write up, Mike

OKC continues to impress me. If I believed in duel fanship, I’d happily follow them 82 games a year. Kevin Durant, aside from Steph Curry, continues to be my favorite player in the league. Ingenious for them to move up to acquire a young shot blocker. I think they’re going to win a championship as soon as they get their hands on a good power forward. I love how they’re young, and how they’ve put themselves in a position to grow and mature as a team, while winning a large amount of games. Very exciting, and competent franchise.

by lilboots on Sep 10, 2010 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

Also

I think Durant will be better than LeBron when it’s all said and done. Call me a fool.

by lilboots on Sep 10, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Haha, honestly, no chance of that happening.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 11, 2010 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

I just don't think any team besides Miami can win a title realistically.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 10, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not sold on Miami.

Besides, I didn’t mean right away. Incidentally, I think Los Angeles has a better shot at a repeat or perhaps Boston. Who is going to defend the post and protect the basket in Miami? Bosh? Iggy? No. Players like Gasol, Garnett, Bynum, are really going to present a problem for the heat to overcome. I’m not sure how great they can be defensively. We will see.

by lilboots on Sep 10, 2010 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

They have 3 great defensive players (HUGE 3), have Joel Anthony who is a fine post defender along with Udonis Haslem. They will probably play a big lineup with Miller/Wade at the point.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 11, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions

Duel fanship is the way to go. ;-D

Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan

by Zorgon on Sep 11, 2010 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions

nice write up

Optimistic though. OKC kinda reminds me of the Hornets a couple of years ago. I hope they do well… I like the idea of a small market team competing hard with the basketball juggernaut organizations. But it’ll take more than one good year to have me sold that they are true contenders. I’m not convinced that Harden, Westbrook, and Green will all continue to improve, and the front line is hardly above reproach. Durant is definitely a first tier superstar, but every other player on the team could fade into obscurity just as much as they could blossom.
I’m pulling for them most nights, but I doubt they’ll get past the second round of the playoffs, if they even get that far.

by Uwe Blog on Sep 11, 2010 12:54 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

Die Zombies.

by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 11, 2010 8:00 AM PDT reply actions

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 11, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions

The Mummies?

I must look like a dork.

by Reverend_Randy on Sep 11, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Hells yeah!

And, I’m no traitor….I still have the gall to cheer for Golden State in the Ford Center.

And while one of those predictions rocks (Zorgon as Most Valuable Blogger!) one of them will never come true. I highly doubt Brooks would ever start Ibaka and Krstic (Or Ibaka and Aldrich) at the same time, they’re both too tall. The only guy in real contention for Green’s stating spot would be Collison, and he’s not improving any time soon.

But the rest of your analysis was spot on and solid. 54 Wins sounds about right, barring any injuries. A lot of analysts think we’ll be the cream of the West after all of the Free Agency madness, but we’re still developing players like Harden, Aldrich, and Ibaka. We might be up there in 2-3 years, but right now I could see us still falling to rookie mistakes at the end of games.

Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan

by Zorgon on Sep 11, 2010 2:19 PM PDT reply actions

I don't get that.

Green is by far the team’s biggest weak link. He’s not even capable of playing power forward based off his rebounding, defense, and scoring. I don’t get it.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 11, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Not everyone would agree with that one.

Green does have his off-nights, but a lot of his scoring has been usurped by Durant. There are other players who cause worse problems. Like Nenad Krstic having an off-shooting night while pretending to be allergic to other players while defending in the paint. Or James Harden with his inability to do anything on offense but drive to the hoop. Or Thabo Sefolosha with 0-fers on offense, leading to the other team being able to double-team Durant without worry. He does have his flaws, like not being able to defend guys like Gasol in the paint, but he has his advantages, like I listed in the response to OlympicMike below.

Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan

by Zorgon on Sep 13, 2010 3:22 AM PDT up reply actions

TRAITOR!!!

Seriously though, congrats on the gig over at WLC (or do you prefer WtLC?). I’m glad you have a local team to root for now, because it is a crime when NBA fans as enthusiastic as you are can’t get the full experience of having a hometown team.

I am curious why you think Ibaka couldn’t start at PF though. It seemed to me that they were better with him on the floor because of his rebounding ability. Does Brooks like that Green plays smaller than his frame? I’m not sure what he brings on the defensive end, but his rebounding and scoring aren’t impressive at this point. Ibaka is a way better rebounder and shot blocker, and while he doesn’t score a ton of points, he knows his role on offense. Also, while Ibaka plays ‘bigger’ than Green, it never struck me that there was that big of an actual size difference.

Golden State Warriors '10-'11 Season: The Return of ^^^^

by olympicmike on Sep 11, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Green's defense is pretty weak on post ups. Good in isolations but that's probably because he's faster than the majority of power forwards.

REPLY TO DONUT

by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 11, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry for the delay in response.

FIBA has kept me busy.

But the reason Green plays at PF is because there’s nobody else who is big enough to contest rebounds and defend relatively well while still being able to score from any point on the floor. Having Green play at power forward creates mismatches that give the Thunder some great scoring opportunities and make it a whole lot easier to get out into a transition offense. Plus, Thabo Sefolosha starts at shooting guard, and his offense is so bad that some teams just ignore him on the perimeter. If we put in someone like Ibaka, our offense would become very limited and inside-oriented. Sure, we’d get lots of defensive rebounds and force the other team to shoot some jumpers, but we’d essentially only have two players who could shoot beyond 9-10 feet in Durant and Westbrook, with an emergency option in Sefolosha. Of course, you could solve this problem by putting in James Harden, but there have been questions about Durant’s defense in the past, and Harden is only an average defender himself, so it’s a potentially dangerous combination to have out there sometimes.

I’m not saying that it’s impossible that Ibaka will get the starting PF spot. I’m just saying that it’s much more likely, given how Brooks ran his team last year, that the two more uncertain starting spots would be Krstic at Center and Sefolosha at Shooting Guard. Green may have his problems, but there’s nobody else on the roster who has as dynamic of an offense while being tall enough to play a tweener forward.

But, if it were to happen, it would have to involve James Harden coming into his own and Kevin Durant proving he can defend well on a consistent basis.

Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan

by Zorgon on Sep 13, 2010 3:18 AM PDT up reply actions

My biggest problems with Jeff Green are

1. He’s a very very poor rebounder. He’s an average rebounder for a 3, but he plays 4.
2. He’s kind of a chucker. 53.5 TS% isn’t awful, but it is below average. While he was a good 3 point shooter 2 years ago, he was pretty horrible at it last year.
Pretty much all of the advanced metrics (win shares, win produced, PER, win%, APM) rank him as a below average or bad player.
I think they’d be better starting Ibaka at the 4 and moving Green to the bench, and then starting Harden. Bad post-defense has more of an effect on the game than bad perimeter defense. Durant also quietly turned into a pretty good defensive player last year, with some defensive metrics ranking him as one of the best in the league. I only wish I got to watch him more- I love the guy.

I must look like a dork.

by Reverend_Randy on Sep 13, 2010 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs