GSoM's 2010-2011 Golden State Warriors Preview: A new beginning, but is it smart?
by Atma Brother ONE on Oct 26, 2010 6:45 PM PDT
in Science
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PrintOriginally posted Sep 26, 2010 7:40 PM PDT
Download the 1280x800 wallpaper courtesy of your man Tony.psd
Jump like the entire Dubs Nation did when we all first heard about The Sale!
I always like to look back before I look forward (it's the T.R.O.Y. in me), so flip back to last year's preview before we dissect the upcoming 2010-2011 Golden State Warriors season:
- Micro-Warriornomics :: GSoM's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Preview (Part 1 of 2)
- Macro-Warriornomics - WE BELIEVE WE SUCK :: GSoM's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Preview (Part 2 of 2)
Onward...
2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Rewind
Last Year's Record: 26-56
Here's what to remember about last season:
- The silly Don Nelson hating was simply out of control. It's sad that the people who were making some legit points about why it was time to move in a different direction with the Warriors head coaching spot were getting drowned out by the noise coming from the irrational, illogical, and agenda-pushing crowd. We'll push out more on this later, but right now we should be spending our time thanking the legend for what he did for this team and how he rescued it from the depths of (soon to be former) owner Chris Cohan's incompetence.
- It was the welcome end to the silly campaigning for a mythically bright future of Golden State Warriors basketball led by Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. I still can't believe back in 2007 right after WE BELIEVE folks were so eager to build around these two players, especially since Monta was benched in the playoffs and Biedrins was benched during that magical spring run.
- Mo Moped, Mo Turnovers. See Polling GSoM: Will the Golden State Warriors lead the league in turnovers this season?
- Horrendous center play- I can't emphasize this one enough. See The Andris Biedrins Starting Center Matchup Watch
- UGLY of the "U-G-L-Y you ain't got no alibi" variety free throws. See The Andris Biedrins Made Free Throw Watch + Polling GSoM: Will Warriors center Andris Biedrins break Celtics Garfield Smith 38 year record for lowest free throw %?
- Stephen Curry's emergence. Anyone want to continue spewing that nonsense that Nellie doesn't (well, sadly I guess it's didn't now) play rookies? See 2009-2010 NBA Rookie of the Year: The case for Stephen Curry vs Brandon Jennings + Tyreke Evans + Dave Berri Weighs in on 2009-2010 NBA Rookie of the Year Voting: Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry- It was close
- Nellie's record. Don't let those Nellie haters distort history. This was fun and entertaining stuff all around. Bonus points for the Sierra Mist sprinkler celebration in the locker room.
Wins 1,332 and 1,333 were a great time out!
- RECAP: Golden State Warriors 113, Toronto Raptors 112 - Don Nelson ties record on Easter Sunday...this is almost biblical, wouldn't you say?
- Warriors Game Day Links: Golden State Warriors 113 @ Toronto Raptors 112 - Don Nelson ties Lenny Wilkens in wins
- Golden State Warriors Make History! Don Nelson gets win #1,333 for most head coaching wins in NBA history
- RECAP: Golden State Warriors 116, Minnesota Timberwolves 107 - Congratulations Nellie!
- Warriors Game Day Links: Golden State Warriors 116 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 107 - Nellie stands alone: 1333 wins
- I will never forget Nellie's final coaching game. Sadly it wasn't exactly the NBA Finals, but it spoke volumes how he stuck up for his troops. It was a tough, tough season, but the funny thing was I didn't want it to stop after that game. If you're a Warriors fan this is what it's all about: RECAP #82: Golden State Warriors 122, Portland Trailblazers 116- Golden State of Heart
- I'll pass the mic to my man JAE for a summary of the year that
wasn'twas: 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Final Report Card: Combating Grade Inflation
2010 Golden State Warriors Offseason Rewind
Key Losses
Corey Maggette
It was probably the right long term move, but Maggette will indeed be missed around these parts:
...another non-basketball move? Sheesh. Corey Maggette is not a perfect player by any stretch of the imagination, but he is NOT Marco Belinelli. You don't just send him away for nothing, which is what this trade will most likely amount to for the Warriors.
Third of all, I must say I feel bad for Larry Riley. Every since he's stepped into the GM role for the Warriors he's been forced to make one non-basketball and Cohan dollar saving move after another. I *think* Riley is a good scout and can be a capable GM, but he really hasn't gotten much of a chance. This is the exact opposite situation that Chris Mullin walked into back in 2004 with the Warriors where we he was given a blank paycheck... and proceeded to ink some of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NBA. Aside from drafting Riley really hasn't gotten much of a chance.
Fourth, thank you Corey for being a true soldier here. You can now go back to being one of the ultimate Warrior Killers. I expect you to make at least 12 trips to the free throw line next time you're in Oakland.
Check out:
- Golden State Warriors trade Corey Maggette + 44th pick in 2010 NBA Draft to Milwaukee Bucks for Charlie Bell + Dan Gadzuric
- Will the Golden State Warriors Miss Corey Maggette?
Hopefully someday Randolph learns how to play winning (he didn't even play on winning teams in college or in high school), team-oriented basketball with the professionalism that's required in the NBA. Until then there's absolutely no point in having him on an NBA roster. I chuckle when I read pieces about he's likely to breakout this season or that the Warriors screwed up by trading this young player with unlimited upside (by people who probably have never even see him play). I prefer to reserve that projection for players who have some semblance of hoops IQ and fundamentals.
Kelenna Azubuike
Azubuike is the best D-League call-up in NBA Development League history and I don't mean that in even the slightest antagonistic way. Sadly he seems like damaged goods and the Warriors probably traded him at the right time.
Ronny Turiaf
I'll miss the energy, character, charitable efforts, and fun attitude. I won't miss the poor rebounding, poor shooting, and overall poor defense (simply trying to block everything in sight does not make for good D).
Anthony Morrow
I'm very sad to say my personal fav will not sporting a Dubs jersey this season. Hopefully there's some way in the future AMMO can light up the Oracle once again (versus lighting up the Warriors), but I can't fault GM Larry Riley and crew for not wanting to match the Nets' price tag.
Chris Cohan
Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
No thanks for the memories, but thanks for selling- FINALLY!
Head Coach Don Nelson
The biggest loss of them all was the Don. More on this later...
Key Additions
David Lee
The Warriors had essentially no chips this summer, but they walked away with a 20-12-3.5 All-Star big man. You do the math.
Genius.
Give Larry Riley (and whoever else made it happen) props. In 1 year as the GM of the Warriors he did something his 2 predecessors couldn't do in (mostly painful) multi-year stints: add a legit power forward to this team.
Warriors fans are going to like a lot about Lee. A LOT.
Check out:
- BREAKING NEWS: David Lee agrees to 6 year $80 million deal with Golden State Warriors + Anthony Randolph Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike to New York Knicks
- GSoM on the Radio: Olympicmike on At The Buzzer with Brian Doolittle on Sports Radio 1380 AM in St. Louis Talking David Lee and the Golden State Warriors
Epke Udoh
Truth be told when the David Stern was saying "With the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors select..." I was hoping to hear "GREG MONROE FROM GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY!" That didn't happen. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.
Also see:
- With the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors select... EPKE UDOH!
- RECAP: Golden State Warriors 2010 NBA Draft Day - Yaaaawn...
- Doctor Strangepick or: How I Learned to Stop Griping and at Least Not Hate Drafting Ekpe Udoh
- Ekpe Udoh: Grading and Reviewing the Golden State Warriors 2010 NBA Draft
- Ekpe Udoh: Did Don Nelson Get the Player He Wanted?
Dan Gadzuric
I'm not expecting much, but whatever he can pitch in defensively would be fantastic.
Charlie Bell
I'm not expecting much, but whatever he can pitch in defensively would be fantastic. (Sound familiar?)
Dorell Wright
The Warriors need athletic wings. Hopefully he fits the bill.
Check out: Is Dorell Wright Primed for a Breakout Season?
Rodney Carney
The Warriors need athletic wings. Hopefully he fits the bill. (Sound familiar?)
Check out: Golden State Warriors Sign Rodney Carney- Going back to 2006 with Patrick O'Bryant + Kosta Perovic
Jeremy Lin
Okay maybe it was a publicity stunt, but as an Asian American, (East) Palo Alto resident, and Warriors fan I'm rooting for Lin to make it and prove the doubters wrong.
The post that started it all: Bow to the Jeremy Lin Movement (b-o-w = Based On What?)
Check out:
- Jeremy Lin to sign at 11am PDT with Golden State Warriors and a shoe endorsement deal?
- Questions Abound: Stephen Curry, Jeremy Lin and the State of the Point Guard Position for the Golden State Warriors
Give the Warriors props for signing the NBA's top remaining unsigned free agent 2 weeks before training camp. I'm kidding, but there's a lot to like with this seemingly trivial signing.
New Owners: Joe Lacob and Peter Gruber
The biggest addition of them all was a new ownership tandem. Seriously, WELCOME!
via epiphanytourney09.tripod.com
2010-2011 Golden State Warriors Projections
Biggest Strengths
Pick + Roll
Once Stephen Curry and David Lee get in rythym, you're going to like the sound of this. Pick and roll all day, every day. Even Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are reasonably solid pick and roll cogs. (That's of course provided Biedrins doesn't play scared again.)
Rebounding
Yes, you read that right. The Warriors are set to be a very nice Windex team. David Lee and Andris Biedrins are elite rebounders, Louis Amundson is solid, and Stephen Curry opened some eyes with his nice work on the boards last season. Who knows maybe even Monta can get back to his earlier rebounding rates. Even if he doesn't, the Warriors project to be at their best level in this department in years- decades perhaps.
It's the first time GSW is cleaning the glass since... the Danny Fortson era?
GM
Warriors fans most recently suffered through the Dave Twardzik, Gary St. Jean, and Chris Mullin/ Robert Rowell eras. Incompetence was the norm. Simply silly moves were the norm. There's still some of the Mullin/ Rowell mess to be cleaned up (the Ellis/ Biedrins "master plan" as well as the lost 1st round draft pick and laptops to the Nets for Marcus WIlliams)
Biggest Weaknesses
The Human Powered Turnover Machine
Stephen Jackson (and his same number of wins in the 2010 NBA Playoffs as the Warriors last season) being gone definitely helps in this category. However, anytime Monta is on the court there's always a risk of a silly turnover- hoops IQ is not his strong point. Curry was also prone to the careless turnover (mostly from lazy one handed passes) last season. Taking care of business for the Warriors this year means taking care of the rock. Ellis and Curry really need to step up here.
It's not a healthy breakfast and it's not healthy for the Warriors win total.
Charmin' Soft Interior
Can Louis Amundson, Dan Gadzuric, and Ekpe Udoh give the Warriors some interior toughness? Let's hope so because it isn't likely to come from the likely starting 4-5 tandem Andris Biedrins and David Lee.
The Warriors D in the paint.
Coaching
There's a few reasons to be happy about Smart getting this gig:
- He genuinely seems like a really nice guy.
- The players really seem to like him
- It's a smooth transition from Nellie since he's been running the practices for awhile.
- Nellie anointed Smart the heir (way back in January 2007 actually). The last person Nellie anointed was of course Avery Johnson, which aside from WE BELIEVE turned out pretty well for the Dallas Mavericks. Speaking of which isn't it a little odd how the media never gives Nellie props for this? Bill Walsh used to get (deserved) props for opening up doors for his assistant coaches, minorities in particular. Nellie deserves some love for this as well.
However, there's a multitude of reasons to not be happy about Smart getting this gig. In terms of actual head coaching experience he doesn't exactly have the best track record. He was the Warriors "defensive coordinator" the past season and defense (aside from turnovers) was the Warriors downfall.
The Warriors simply are a worse coached team under Smart than Nellie. Smart currently ranks in the very bottom in the ranks of NBA head coaches. I wouldn't be too surprised if this is a 1 year or interim head coaching gig.
Point blank: Don Nelson could take this team to the playoffs. Keith Smart probably cannot. It's just asking way too much from him.
GSW Goals for 2010-2011
Player Level
- Stephen Curry: Continue the 26.4 ppg, 8.1 apg, 6.4 rpg, and 2.6 stls pace of the final month of last season. (Seriously those were some MONSTER numbers!)
- David Lee: Bring that 20-12 from the East Coast to the West Coast.
- Monta Ellis: Boost trade value to entice the Nuggets to move Carmelo Anthony.
- Andris Biedrins: See above plus show up some semblance of commitment to the game of basketball and quit complaining and playing scared.
- Brandan Wright: Play more than 41 games. That is all.
- Louis Amundson: Bring the D and work on the glass. Possibly even beat out Biedrins for the starting spot.
- Rodney Carney: Get the 3pt shooting percentage back up to where it was 2 seasons ago at 35.0%.
- Jeremy Lin: Show everyone why you belong in the NBA.
- Charlie Bell: Add a much needed defensive element to the Dubs backcourt.
- Dan Gadzuric: Step up when the other Warriors bigs are injured or struggling.
- Vladimir Radmanovic: Contribute somehow.
- Reggie Williams: Keep scoring at a hot rate.
- Dorell Wright: Emerge.
- Epke Udoh: Be a great New Year's 2011 present.
Team Level
- Continue to improve the roster through creative trades like the David Lee one. The Warriors are much closer than they were the previous two years. Just a few more good moves and in-house improvements will do it.
- Make a push for the playoffs. The bottom of the West is slowly crumbling. It's a new decade and this shouldn't continue to be the Western Conference of old.
- Defense. Play some for a change.
BOLD Predictions
- Andris Biedrins and his 16% FT will be playing somewhere else by next August.
- Monta Ellis has his league-leading 3.8 turnovers a game will be playing somewhere else by next August.
- Larry Riley will be this team's GM for this season and the next at a minimum.
- Either Dan Gadzuric ($7.2 million) or Vladamir Radmonovic's ($6.9 million) expiring contracts will actually be used to improve this team hoops-wise in a trade before the 2011 NBA trading deadline. (I know, what a concept.)
- Everyone will miss and finally appreciate Don Nelson. Man I'm going to miss The Don Nelson Show on KNBR with The Razor and Mr. T.
Overall record
34-48
GSoM Night 9
Let's kick things off right this year everyone. New logo, new jerseys, new players, new owner, but your same ol' golden friends. Join us:
- GSoM Night 9: Courtside Shootaround Details!
- GSOM Night 9: Golden State Warriors Opening Night 2010 vs Houston Rockets
- GSOM Night 9: The Details + Post-Game On-Court Free Throw Contest
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Comments
I guess it's because Biedrins hasn't been around to take pictures yet
by IQofaWarrior on Sep 26, 2010 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Couldn't they have just photoshoped Biedrins into the photo
or they could have made the entire background a big smiling Biedrins head.
by brutusbrutus on Sep 26, 2010 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess Tony didn't have a pic of Biedrins in the new uniform.
I’m assuming Tony is the guy who photoshopped the other 4 guys onto the same background image.
by IQofaWarrior on Sep 26, 2010 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
There's another GSW Goal I'd like to add for this season
- Reduce the number of times I have to add a Therapy section in the post game links.
Adding a Therapy section means the game was disgusting, abysmal, painful, and 4 qtrs worth of garbage. Losing sucks, but being buried into the ground by the opponent sucks worst. Unfortunately, in order not to disappoint myself, I’m preparing for some more garbage games as the new players adjust to each other and as Keith Smart figures out how to manage the players from a head coach standpoint without a “safety net” behind him to give him tips and pointers.
To all you who voted "playoffs", which of these teams are the Dubs going to beat out for a playoff spot?
Lakers
Mavs
Spurs
OKC
Jazz
Houston
Portland
Denver (even without Melo, still significanly better than the Dubs)
Here are some more teams that are about as good, if not better than the Dubs
Clippers
Kings
Hornets
Phoenix
Memphis
Now that I put that list together and look at the list of Western Conference teams I realize that this list includes every team but Minnesota, lol. I still think its accurate though. My best prediction would be the Dubs towards the middle of the second list I made, with at least the Hornets and Phoenix finishing with a better record than GSW. Hard for me to see them doing better than that.
Clippers
Kings
Hornets
Phoenix
Memphis
I disagree with most of these. Suns I would almost put in that top list.
I think we’re a lot better than the Kings and Clippers. I think we’re close to Memphis, who won about 40 games last year. I don’t know what to think of the Hornets.
I’m also not sure what about the Nuggets roster screams “significantly better” than the Warriors if they lose Melo.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I could see th Warriors being better
than Houston if Yao isn’t what he used to be, also I think we might be better than Denver after Anthony goes also the Jazz lost Boozer which is a big deal seeing as he is a top notch power forward in the league, Milsap and Jefferson are not nearly as good. I would say that they could be better than the Clips, Kings, Hornets, Phoenix and Memphis this year if everything goes well.
Also the Spurs are getting older and injury to one of their key players could spell their doom. Also another team could get the injury bug as badly as we got it last year, therefore making a spot for us. I think we could make 7th or 8th seed if we stay healthy, the only problem is that the 7th or 8th seed could also go to the Kings, Phoenix, Hornets, Clippers, or Memphis too there will be lots of competition this year.
by brutusbrutus on Sep 26, 2010 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Al Jefferson could be better than Boozer before the end of the season, provided he stays healthy. Paul Milsap is no slouch, either. The Jazz may manage to pick up Dampier, too. If their starting lineup looks like D. Will, CJ MIles, Raja Bell, Al Jefferson, Milsap and maybe Boris Diaw (and word is, they’re trying to make another big move, even with AK gone, so they could look better than this), they’ll be very tough.
Of course, if Jefferson proves to be mediocre (as his TS% seems to imply), doesn’t stay healthy and/or they have a major injury, we might be able to hang with them. I’m very interested in seeing what happens with the Jazz this year (my buddy is a huge fan).
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
Just curious
How do you see him being better than Boozer?
He’s never approached his scoring acumen. He’s a worse defender than Boozer too (saying alot), and passes worse. Unless you think Deron will transform him overnight?
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ve watched him play. In the right system, he could be an incredible beast. Boozer was never a good defender, by the way. Deron will help Jefferson a lot. The big difference will be the Jazz coaching staff. Those guys are top notch. I think they can work with him, help him play defense and get him scoring efficiently. Jefferson certainly has the body and athleticism/natural talent to be very good. Give him half a season, and see what the Jazz can do with him.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
I never thought Boozer was a good defender either.
Thats why i said it was saying alot to be worse than him.
And sure, there will be some improvement most likely with better health, Deron as his point guard, and Sloan as his coach, but i think you are thinking he’ll improve too much. It’s not likely a guy can be a top notch player this late in their career.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah… you can’t always teach an old dog new tricks, but sometimes you can. I think Jefferson must be so hungry to be what he should have been, he’ll do what he can to adjust. It’ll be hard, but I think he has a shot at it.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
Even if Jefferson isn't as good as Boozer, the Jazz are still a better team than us...
Jefferson will be close enough, and if you don’t remember, they had a pretty good backup last year. At most they’ll win 4 or 5 less games than last year, which is better than I think the Dubs will do.
by freerandolph on Sep 27, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you’re overoptimistic on Jefferson. I see good reason to expect improvement, too. Sloan is a great coach. A good PG helps. That said, Jefferson still has some serious limitations, especially when you compare him to Boozer. Boozer is a very good passer. Jefferson only recently got himself to the point where he’s not the worst passer in the NBA. He’s merely bad. The difference in their scoring efficiency is pretty large. I expect Jefferson’s efficiency to go up. I don’t see any reason to think all of a sudden it will be Boozer good. A new team/system can help a guy take better advantage of his skills. It cannot completely transform a guy into a new player altogether. Boozer matches his rebounding (actually, Boozer is a hair better). And when it comes to defense, honestly, I just don’t think he’s capable of being much defensively. Slow, glued to the ground, doesn’t show the effort, tenacity, willingness or understanding of defense you look for…at best, he’s Boozer defensively. Overall I think Jefferson will play better in Utah than he did in Minnesota. I think he will definitely be a downgrade from Boozer, though.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Deron Williams
and maybe Jerry Sloan.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
But being better than Boozer is a pretty big step. We're not talking about being decent, we're saying he'll be a top 5 power forward.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I know
I just think that Jerry Sloan will be very good for him. He’s playing on a team with a clear alpha dog.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought you thought Al Jeff sucked?
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
He has skills
I bet a coach like Sloan could get him to maximize his skills and get him to play a little defense. I don’t think he’ll be Boozer good, but I think he has a chance at being pretty good.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions
My sentiments exactly
If Jefferson is going to amount to anything other than a maggette/ZBo worthless stat guy this is his chance. All those years on bad teams might welcome an attitude adjustment going to Utah with a hall of fame coach and all star PG.
If Jefferson is going to amount to anything other than a maggette/ZBo worthless stat guy this is his chance
The common thing about these guys is that they play attrocious defense, and in ZBO and Jeff’s case, they didn’t score efficiently or pass.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 28, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
None of the trio can pass. But I think there problem is more fundamental than that. They amount shallow stats. In losses, blowouts and other situations. Quite frankly if Maggette was truly more efficient scorer than Kobe he should be able to have led teams to more than Kobe did (during non-shaq/gasol years).
Same with Jefferson/ZBo compared to other bigs w/ mediore talent
Quite frankly if Maggette was truly more efficient scorer than Kobe he should be able to have led teams to more than Kobe did (during non-shaq/gasol years).
Well, Kobe is a better defender, rebounder and passer than Corey Maggette. He’s better at everything that isn’t related to scoring efficiency and it’s not all that close.
And Kobe was a great scorer during those seasons.
31.8 PPG at .567 TS% compared to Maggette’s career 20.4 P/36 and .58 TS% and has also been majorly injury prone, missing more than 15 games in most of his seasons.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 28, 2010 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions
My problem is that Jefferson only has 2 actual skills. Putting the ball in the basket from <5 feet, and rebounding. Even if he’s maximizing those, he’s just not Carlos Boozer. He doesn’t have any passing skills. He doesn’t have a jumpshot (well he does, but it’s what makes him inefficient). I question whether he’s even that good on the low block, as I suspect a number of his jumpshots come because he’s not all that effective at getting himself to <5 feet when he tries to post up on the low block.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Sloan gets the best out of big men
Playing for Jazz is the best thing that ever happened to Al. He will improve in areas he has been weak at and learn how to maximize what he does well. I prefer Boozer as well but think Al will be better with Jazz than he was with TWolves.
He will improve in areas he has been weak at and learn how to maximize what he does well.
He’s not just going to magically transform into a new kind of player. Sure, he might do a better job of maximizing his skills, but like I said, he only has 2 actual skills. And yes, I also think he’ll be better with the Jazz than the Wolves, but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be good.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Jerry Sloan is an excellent coach
I’m not a fan of Jefferson but at same time I won’t deny he does some things well, and is talented. Jefferson has been in horrible situations last few years, this could be welcome change for him to become a player he is capable of.
I don’t think he’ll replace Boozer either. But I think an increased roll for Millsap, but Jefferson improving and the other pieces added could put Utah around where they were last year. More so, if he is a ball hog, hell see bench. Sloan has no problem doing that to ‘big’ players like Kirilenko. And with Millsap, they don’t exactly be starting a back up caliber PF
In general, Sloan is one of few coaches I feel confident in saying will always get most out of his team
No way we're better than denver if melo leaves
still, they’ll be good. you’re forgetting that they’re going to get something extremely good back, not some salary cap expendables. If the current rumors are true, a denver team featuring billups, lawson, AK, favors, Harrington and the rest of them could be fierce, even if they claim that they’re still in the rebuilding mode. If the most current rumor happens, than a denver team featuring Iggy plus others is also something to sweat about. Losing Carmelo won’t necessarily be a bad move for them, they’re going to get something GOOD back.
by dubious dubz on Sep 27, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
That lineup you just described really doesn’t scare me much. I like both Lawson and Billups, but the play the same position, which decreases their value significantly. Harrington is garbage. Favors likely won’t add much to a team this year. It depends on how good the pieces they add are right now – talent like Favors doesn’t make them good this year. Talent like Iguodala does.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
They will be better if they Iggy, or AK47, Favors, and picks.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't know about AK47
All of a sudden you got a scoring hole without Melo. While Chauncey can do his thing, you’re putting a lot of faith in assumption career role players can up there game to cover Melo’s scoring which they’ve come accustom to.
I think Chauncey, Nene, JR Smith, and Harrington can make up the loss in scoring.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 28, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno. One of the problems here is that Chauncey doesn’t create all that much for teammates, and who of those guys is going to create good shots for themself? Chauncey….and that’s pretty much it?
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Note: I know AK47 does things better than Melo
But it’s still a HUGE change in way they play and can’t just be assumed they’ll be fine
To all you who voted "playoffs", which of these teams are the Dubs going to beat out for a playoff spot?
Well Lakers ,OKC,portland, and utah should definitely be better than us. One of the Mav’s , spurs, or rockets will likely fall due to old age and denver might not get anything good enough back for melo to keep them in the playoffs . Of course the PHX Nash’s and Nawlins Cp3’s might come up big any year and the clips or Kings could surprise the doubters and be the second best team in cali? So it looks like we got a 50/50 chance of the 8th spot depending on who gets hurt on which teams?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Sep 26, 2010 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions
If the Nuggets pick up AK47, who is quite an efficient scorer and a superior defender to Melo, they won’t lose a huge amount. Won’t hurt to pick up Favors either who may start contributing as a rookie even.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
They won't lose anything in that scenario unless Favors can't play.
That’s a huge haul for them with the draft picks as well.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t say they lose nothing. AK has had some back problems and oddly, has had problems recently becoming too light. Weird. Still, if he’s healthy, you’re right.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
I didn't even know about his injuries.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
if the AK trade goes through
The Nuggets might have the best d in the league, with Chauncey, Aflalo, AK47, Kmart and Nene and they still have scoring with JR and Al Harrington. Favors,Lawson, Birdman off the bench too. Looks like a strong team to me, and a nightmare to score against.
by Uwe Blog on Sep 27, 2010 10:38 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Depends on coach and system
If they were THAT good defensively before Melo shouldn’t have ruined it. where as by all defensive metrics they were about league average. Point being George Karl is a slightly less insane Don Nelson. I like him, but i don’t expect his team to be defensive monster.
I imagine if Popovich or Larry Brown coached the Nuggets they’d score a lot less but be much more defensively solid even with Melo. Uglier. Possibly more effective, definitely less exciting.
It would have been interesting to see how team looked like AK47 but that trade seems dead.
I have serious questions that Favors can contribute anything worthwhile as a rookie.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Well.
The Jazz got worse, no one knows how well Yao will do so Houston is vulnerable, the Nuggets are in the process of blowing their team up, and the Spurs are a Duncan (and/or Manu) injury away from irrelevance.
I’d say there’s lots of ways for a team to sneak into the top 8.
by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 26, 2010 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow the exact moment you were typing this I was typing a remarkable similar comment.
by brutusbrutus on Sep 26, 2010 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess I really just disagree with this assessment
As far as I can tell
Jazz have players who can step in for boozer enough that they won’t be more than a few games worse. Even without Yao, Houston was better than us last year, and I think that even without Yao they would be again. Nuggets would get AK47 to replace Melo, which isn’t that big of a downgrade, plus who knows what Favors will contribute? The Spurs have played through injury plagued seasons multiple times to still come out with more than 50 wins. While they are getting older and won’t be able to keep this up forever, I don’t think they will be drastically worse than last year.
by freerandolph on Sep 27, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not saying any of those things are sure to happen, but it's not as iron-clad as it seems (it never is).
Something will happen, and if it doesn’t happen to the Warriors (see: last season), they’ll be in a position to move up. There are a lot of things in flux.
The Jazz are interesting. Sloan always has that team playing well, but they’ve had a lot of movement. Raja Bell and Earl Watson should be decent fits, but Jefferson really isn’t. He’ll have to learn to play a completely different style of offense than he’s used to. Over 55% of his offensive possessions came as post-ups last season, that won’t happen in Utah.
Also, I doubt the Nuggets get that package from the Nets now. Everything being reported makes it seem like that deal is dead and done with.
by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 27, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't you think the Nuggets will be better overall if they get the packages reported for Melo?
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends.
The Nets package? Definitely. That makes them a lot better, I think; but that seems somewhat dead at this point. I honestly have no clue what’s happening, but if the deal is with the Knicks (which is what Carmelo seems to be pushing for), then I don’t see how they get better. I know the 76ers are rumored to be involved, but I don’t see them taking on Iggy’s salary, doesn’t fit with the young players + picks thing we’ve been hearing.
by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 26, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Danillo + Randolph + Douglas for Anthony would seem to make them better.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe.
Danilo is a downgrade from Carmelo, I think (depends on how he develops), and they already have a pretty productive PF tandem in Martin/Anderson, so I’m unless Randolph plays out of his mind, I’m not sure if he gives them more production than those two (oh, and I forgot about Harrington, they’ll all have to absorb his awfulness). Douglas is redundant with Lawson being the backup PG, but he’s probably big enough to get minutes at the two, though I’m not sure how good he is anyway.
Plus there’s the rumor that if Carmelo goes, they’ll try to ship out Billups as well, which could also make them worse depending on who comes back (and how Lawson plays).
by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 26, 2010 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Danilo is only 22.
I think the trade is a slight downgrade for a year, then next year when K-Mart and possibly Nene and Billups are gone, it’s a huge coup.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Depending on there motives
KMart could be extremely valuable come trade deadline
possibly
in the nets package, denver does lose a big time scorer, and I don’t see AK or Favors making up for that. But they’ll definitely be more defensively sound.
by dubious dubz on Sep 27, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Do me a favor
And count the times Sloan has missed the playoffs.
by Uwe Blog on Sep 27, 2010 10:39 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I can't count that high.
But this is the worst team he’s had since he last missed the playoffs in ’06.
by Spider Jerusalem on Sep 27, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I have the Warriors finishing 6th in the West
1. Portland
2. LAL
3. OKC
4. Dallas
5. Denver
6. GSW
7. NOH
8. Phoenix
No Spurs?
I think the Spurs have more talent than Phoenix, Golden State and New Orleans. Are you basing this on their true talent level, or are you trying to predict injuries?
Monta Ellis's #1 Fan!!!
What I don’t like about this analysis is that of those teams you listed, well, there are going to be teams that underperform, teams that have injuries, etc. It could happen to us, too, the difference is there’s 1 of us, and 13 of them. Much greater chance of it happening to 1,2 3 of 13 than 1 of 1.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions
um, actually, the point you raised works against us
the chances are even – each team has an even chance of having injuries. However, look at the warriors history (or just our preseason). As a team, we get hurt more than any other team. This may not happen this year, but statistics suggests that trends are less likely to be completely reversed (others get hurt, we stay healthy) and more likely to stay the same.
This is why it is better to assume all teams stay healthy and make your predictions based on that.
No, it really does not work against us.
the chances are even
Right.
However, look at the warriors history (or just our preseason). As a team, we get hurt more than any other team.
I question how valid this is, but let’s say it means we’re slightly more likely to have injury issues. Ok.
You’re ignoring my main point. There’s 1 of us, and 13 of them. Much greater chance of injuries happening to 1, 2 or 3 (or even more?!) out of 13 than 1 out of 1. I’m not saying I can pick out any individual team and say they’re giong to get hurt. I am saying I can look at the group of 13 and assume it’s going to happen to 1 or more teams.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
i recognize your logic, but it isn't a safe bet
If 100 people play the lottery, the chances that someone wins is greater than if 10 people play the lottery – sound logic
HOWEVER
If 100 people play the lottery, all 100 have an equal chance, so it shouldn’t be used as a gage as to whether or not one will win the lottery.
I think that losing Lou and Udoh already blew our playoff shot, but I am hoping for an improved team. 35 wins would be a good start.
I’m not sure what your analogy is going for. It is a safe bet that one or more of the other 13 teams will have injury problems rather than us. It doesn’t mean I’ll win that bet every time, just that I’ll win it more times than I lose it.
I don’t see any meaningful impact in losing Udoh. Amudson will hurt to some degree, but he’s just a backup and he isn’t out that long. 35 wins would disappoint me a decent amount. We’re a significantly better team than that. We were a 32 win team last year, despite all our injuries.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
We had the pythag record of a 32 win team, which is a better measure of our talent level than actual W-L.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Which is another way of essentially saying we were a 32 win team (unless you have an even better measure?)
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
whaaaaat?
we lost 56 games last year! we were a bad team!
how can what we literally were in terms of our record not be the best indicator?
Pythag records do not get you into the playoffs!
Bill Walsh said it first – “you are only as good as your record”
we lost 56 games last year! we were a bad team!
how can what we literally were in terms of our record not be the best indicator?
Record = talent + e. E is an error term, something completely out of the teams control. Going forward, you expect E = 0 because on average, it does. Random variation/standard deviation happen, though, and they’re larger the smaller your sample size is. This is basic statistics kinda stuff. When you use point differential instead of W-L, you’re strpping out some of the error term (and likely a little bit of the “talent” part too, but the gains outweigh the losses so its ok). In an 82 game season, using point differential has been shown to give you a more accurate take on “talent” than using W-L. Last year we won 26 games, but the E term cost us 6. What that means is if we’re trying to use last years performance as a baseline going forward, we have to set E = 0 since we expect it to be 0 going forward, which means using a 32-50 record instead of a 26-56 record.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
but the E could just as easily be 10, not 0, right?
how did the E term equate to 6 games last year? why not 5 or 7?
Also, can the E term work FOR us instead of against us? Maybe we should have won 20 games but other teams E got us six more wins?
too many variables to be a good indicator of how well a team played – seems wiser to just look at our actual record.
but the E could just as easily be 10, not 0, right?
10 sounds like a lot, I don’t think it often is that big of a difference, but yes, it could cost us games next year, it could give us games next year, or it could be neutral at 0. It’s impossible to know what it will do. That said, we can have a pretty good idea as to the distribution, and in this case, the mean is at 0 so that’s the “expected value” going forward. The important point is that the expected value is just the mean – what happens, on average.
how did the E term equate to 6 games last year? why not 5 or 7?
Well, because that’s what the pythag is telling us. Using point differential tells us we should have been a 32 win team. 32 – 26 = 6.
too many variables to be a good indicator of how well a team played – seems wiser to just look at our actual record.
It’s just 1 variable, really. I’d suggest taking a statistics class at some point in the future, the topic itself is exactly what I’m talking about. Probability distributions. Pythag really has been shown to be better than using our actual record…..
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
so, explain to me how we are going to 48 or 50 wins
If you are a fan of stats then I am sure you know that the likely hood of a team going from 26 actual wins to 50 actual wins is pretty improbable. What are the statistical chances of this happening? Historically, how often has this happened?
When a team replaces most of its bad players with better players, pretty often.
What’s rare is to see a 26-win-team completely revamp its roster the way we have.
As has been pointed out, ad nauseum, of the players who saw 800+ minutes on our team last year, only two are still with us. We’re a different team this year. We’re clearly upgraded at four of the five positions on the floor, the only question being Monta, who is probably upgraded.
(Curry is an upgrade compared to last year assuming he plays at the level he did at the end of the year for the full season).
How often do you see 26-win teams upgrade all five starters?
If you are a fan of stats then I am sure you know that the likely hood of a team going from 26 actual wins to 50 actual wins is pretty improbable. What are the statistical chances of this happening? Historically, how often has this happened?
Well, it’s less that I’m a fan of stats, and more that I’m a fan of evidence. In this case, I would say that for reasons Ronaldinho lays out, it’s not all that relevant. I doubt it’s likely at all, but there also aren’t that many examples of teams that had the injury situation we had last year AND added a talent like David Lee (in addition to guys like Amudson and Dorell). Those kinds of teams are the rare teams that see a huge jump in wins from one year to the next.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I've discussed this before, but:
Lakers
Mavs
Spurs
OKC
Jazz
Houston
Portland
Denver
Only the Lakers, OKC, and Portland, strike me as being so far ahead of the Warriors that we can’t catch up to them.
Mavs, Spurs? Real age concerns. Houston, I think we’re just better than. I wouldn’t trade our roster for theirs. The Jazz are worse than they were last year even if Jefferson is good. Denver isn’t particularly scary with or without Melo. THey’re a decent team, but they’re not uncatchable.
Do I think we’ll be better than all of those teams? No, probably not. A lot would have to go right for that to happen and I don’t expect it. But nor do I think it makes any sense at all to assume that all of those teams will be better than us.
Warriors > Blazers / Rockets / Thunder / Denver
PFortyy :)
'11 Champs!
Woah, woah
I definitely don’t agree on Blazers and Thunder.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we could pass the Rockets
Denver is a bigger stretch.
The Thunder and Blazers are beyond our reach.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 27, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
why
I think we could pass the Rockets
It was a .500 team without Yao. They have a lot of young players who will improve too. If anything, if Yao stays healthy and gives them 25 minutes a game I think they could jump to 50 wins
The improvement of our players (Curry, Reggie), the return of Biedrins (who should play more than 24 minutes a game), the addition of Lee, our other key additions like Lou and Dwright. I think our success depends on how good Biedrins is and if Monta will buy back in to the team concept.
I think it’s entirely possible that Yao is terrible.
I’m not saying for sure that we’ll be better, but with some things going our way and some things going against them, we could be better.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 28, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn’t Houston, outside of Yao, incredibly healthy last year? Also, their pythag was 40-42. I’m not sure what to expect ouf of Houston, to be honest. Scola and Battier, two of their top 4 returning players in terms of minutes, are both over 30….
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
The THUNDER??
I am calling it right now. Thunder are going to be in the Finals 2012 and 2013. There is no way we finish infront of them. If the warriors play AMAZING this year, we will be a #8 seed.
Blazers will be a #4 or 5 team if Oden can ever play a season.
Denver is still stacked.
While Yao was never unstoppable, I think the rockets will be a big step up this year as well.
Thunder????
Cmon get real they have Durantula we got Curry. End of conversation
Win Or Lose Warriors For Life.........
Really?
Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge = Pretty Fng Good
Kevin Durrant = STUD/Gym Rat dripping with offensive game
The Warriors will not be better than those 2 for sure
They havent proved they can beat Denver or Houston over the last 5 years….
Until the Monta issue is resolved and we have a healthy roster there is no playoff hopes just another year of ping pong balls….
I don't even think that LMA is their 4th best player
which is actually really impressive
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 27, 2010 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Woah There
There is NO way the warriors are better than the thunder, blazers, or rockets. as much as i’d like them to be, they’re not.
they can be better than a melo’less denver – only if the current trade rumor fails. if denver gets favors and kierlenko, eh, i’d be hopeful
Yao’s reconstructed foot makes the Rockets a huge question mark. Even with Yao, Wages of Wins (preliminarily) rates them 10 games worse than the Warriors. I’d bet even money the Ws finish ahead of them.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Sep 26, 2010 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude, I completely serious, I will bet you $100 that the Dubs finish behind the Rockets. Put your money where your mouth is.
We can exchange some info if you’re interested.
by freerandolph on Sep 26, 2010 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll bet you 2 dollars...
yeah,that’s right.
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Sep 26, 2010 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Haha. The thing is, I’m not really a gambling man, so I wouldn’t wager $100 unless I felt the odds of my winning were overwhelming. I’d guesstimate the odds the Warriors will be better than the Rockets next season to be more like 65/35, which isn’t quite enough to stir me to risk $100.
For fun, I’d be happy to wage a less princely sum: say $10? No need for PayPal or exchanging info or anything: when it comes time for you to remit my winnings, I’ll send you my work address and you can drop a check or cash in the mail. Deal?
Meantime, since this is a forum of ideas, not an online gambling site, perhaps you’d like to explain to your readers why you think the Wages of Wins crew seem to have so grossly overestimated the Warriors’ record and underestimated the Rockets’? Keep in mind: Houston’s recent history of success and Golden State’s lack thereof means precious little going forward.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Sep 27, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Keep in mind: Houston’s recent history of success and Golden State’s lack thereof means precious little going forward.
See, this is where you’re wrong. :)
Houston has a very similar team to last year. I don’t see how their recent history of success will mean little going forward. Now the Martin has had some time to play with them, and Yao is coming back they will be even better. If Yao is healthy I peg them at around 50 wins, if Yao doesn’t play I put them slightly (a game or two) above 500.
As for the Dubs. They still don’t play any defense. Curry is gonna be good. Lee is gonna be good. Hopefully Ellis can find his role, and not blow up and do anything stupid. Smart is a first year head coach. Hopefully Beans will have a good year, getting us around 1o and 10. I am excited to see this team, and I hope that I am pleasantly surprised, I just see them being a below 500 team.
The Clippers have added Griffin and Aminu to their team.
The Kings have improved their roster a little bit too, and also have some young talent that could develop.
NO will likely have a healthy CP3 along with a PF that is comparable to Lee, a second year player in Thorton who can score some points.
I just don’t see the Warriors holding anything that special over these teams. I see them somewhere in the same category of mysterious, young potential, and new players, which will likely lead to a mediocre season in my opinion.
.
by freerandolph on Sep 27, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
See, this is where you’re wrong. :)
You’re right, I didn’t word that very well. Obviously, a team’s recent record can and should be used to project its record going forward (assuming its key players are intact). What I meant was, we shouldn’t be swayed by the fact that the Rockets brand (built through the years by Elvin Hayes, Calvin Murphy, Moses, Barkley, Hakeem, young Yao et al.) is so much more winning than the Warriors brand. When a Warrior fan says “there’s NO WAY” the Ws are better than the Rockets," I’m pretty sure he’s letting that historical difference in reputation cloud his thinking. There are all kinds of WAYS in which the Warriors might end up better than Houston this year. To name one: Yao’s knees make him a shell of his former self.
I just don’t see the Warriors holding anything that special over these teams.
I don’t disagree, but I also don’t think there are very many Western Conference teams that hold anything over the Warriors. Basically, I think the Warriors’ range of possibilities extends all the way to the #2 seed. Obviously, I don’t think they’re likely to finish that high; I’d estimate somewhere in the #5-10 range. Maybe over under of 7.5, if I were a betting man. In any case, this “no way” nonsense gets tiresome. There are an infinite number of unforeseen things that can and do happen; and no one here is Nostradamus. It’s fine to make predictions, but if you don’t allow a shred of doubt to enter them them (through use of words like “likely” and “probably,” e.g.) I’m going to call you out for being a blowhard and a false prophet. Probably. ;-)
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Sep 27, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
haha, I'll wear the title proud, Freerandolph, aka false prophet, sounds pretty epic to me, haha
Anyway, I can see why you think what you think, but as I already said I think even without Yao, Houston > Warriors, but I can see why you think thank I should use the word “probably”. Obviously no one can predict the future. But! With all things being even, I think there are enough teams better than the Warriors that unless a few particular teams have a bunch of players get badly injured (which is possible but not likely) or particular players on multiple teams sustain bad injuries over the course of the season (e.j. Kobe and Pau, + Durant and Westbrook, + CP3) then I just can’t see the Dubs making the playoffs. Of course, I am not an omniscient being, and this is just my opinion. I just don’t see how the Dubs will make the playoffs, and I think its ridiculous homerism that more than half the people on this site voted that we would make the playoffs.
by freerandolph on Sep 27, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
If I were a betting man, I just might bet on the Warriors not making the playoffs. I’m still leaning towards “less likely” than “more likely”. That said, I don’t think the odds are that far from 50/50, and I just don’t see why you seem to be so against the idea that you’re calling it ridiculous homerism? We’re a much, much better team that last year. I think we’ll win close to 20 more games. I think there are solid reasons to think that. What reasons do you have to not think that?
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I actually think the Rockets brand should carry some value. It’s pretty much because of Morey & Co.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Monta's ball
Was he spinning the ball? Why does it look like it’s falling off his finger?
Don’t get me wrong… this is definitely my background.
I thought Palo Alto?
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions
close enough?
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
Huge difference.
Ones the hood, the others got mansions.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 27, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone can stress enough how different they are.
My car broke down once afternoon while making an IKEA run in EPA. Interesting times.
"Melo is waay better than Roy."~ J-Ridah
"I want to see how we play with D.Wright before we think about the melo trade ." ~ J-Ridah Part II
"I said that because even tho Melo is a good player we shouldnt give up key pieces to get him. In order to get him we’d have to give up Ellis,Udoh and probably wright just to rent him for a year. No player in the league is worth that much for 1 year. Not even Lebron." ~ J-Riday Part II: The Explanation
by wallywagon11 on Sep 28, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Not surprising to hear the hate of Biedrins...sigh, when he does well once again (he's already done very well) I hope Atma stops hating on him.
We should make a bet. If Biedrins has a TS% of 58, rebounds per 36 of 12, and a points per 36 of 12, at the all star break, Atma should make a public apology? That’s only his career averages, and those are pretty damn good to go along with his average foul rates, and good passing. We should be happy he’s on the team, not the joke of the front page.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:11 PM PDT reply actions
And just curious Atma, how much of a difference do you think there is between Keith Smart and Nellie in terms of wins this year. 34 wins seems to be highly pessimistic. We had the win differential of a 32 win team last year WITH the injuries. If that team was simply healthy we win around 35 games. We just improved our roster by a good amount. That’s a good 5-10 win improvement at least by itself. We will have better health. That will be at least a 5 game improvement, and Monta and Biedrins can’t play worse than last year and Steph and Reggie have improved.
What about this team do you see at 34 wins?
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:19 PM PDT reply actions
Maybe more injuries
Or a lack of upfront defense
" Only build on positives , don't stack the negatives...Instead of criticizing , what was a positive?" - Donavin Darius
"There is nothing like a wise phrase or quote to help convince others that your decision makes sense." - Anon
"If you're ever in a fair fight, then your tactics suck." ಠ_ಠ
You think there is a chance we have more injuries than last year?
That was the 2nd most amount of games missed to injuries in the history of the NBA. No way we get even close to that, nonetheless surpass it. And i’d say having actual bigs play post defense will make a big difference this season.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
David Lee might not be very good on defense, but I’d take him defending a PF over Corey Maggette defending a PF any day…
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
What about c.j Watson?
He was a solid back up that we also lost
by GSW Fan4Life on Sep 26, 2010 9:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
And he was a backup.
I will miss CJ but Curry’s improvement, Monta’s improvement, a full season of Reggie and improvement, and better health will more than make up for it.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Reggie can replace what CJ brought to us.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
I think he can more than replace that.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, if CJ Watson can, Reggie can.
They had identical passing numbers last season.
Not much of creators, but hold onto the ball very well.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Reggie can't defend PGs,
but he can handle when there is no PG on the court, like if Monta is guarding the 1.
I must look like a dork.
by Reverend_Randy on Sep 26, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Nooo
I ment, C.J wasn’t mentioned as one of the players we lost.. He made solid contributions how could atma just forget about him
by GSW Fan4Life on Sep 26, 2010 10:12 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
No he can't
two completely different styles of play. watson provided much needed relief for monta – we never placed him as a valuable part of the team that could be a gamechanger. This season, reggie’s scoring is a neccessity to this teams success – we’re going to need all the points we can get to make up for defensive shortages
by dubious dubz on Sep 27, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
# and Biedrins was benched during that magical spring run.
Haha, i mean come on Atma, making stuff up isn’t going to help you out. He started 8 of the 11 playoff games, and barring playing 7 minutes in game 1, he played significant time, and was our only big. To claim he wasn’t a big part of our upset of the Mavs is just preposterous. To claim he didn’t help this team get to the postseason that year because he was “benched” is false too.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 9:35 PM PDT reply actions
I believe what Atma is referring to is the run preceding the playoffs, when we rattled off something like 12 wins in 15 games to make a surging run to the playoffs. Nellie benched Beans in favor of Harrington for most of that streak.
Not hating on Beans, I’m a big fan, just explaining what Atma said.
Ok, but i think most of us would call the series against the Mavs magical more than the regular season run.
Sure that was amazing but its not the playoffs.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn’t vote on whether we would make the playoffs or not. Honestly, I have no idea what we’ll look like this year. How long will it take to figure this team out, getting them to play well together? How will Smart do as a coach? The first half of the season could be disastrous with Lee playing heavy minutes at center, perhaps? Brandan Wright starting at PF? Biedrins still shaky, getting few minutes? Lots of question marks, I think.
That said, I’ll be patient and expect to see great things, given some time and maybe a little luck staying healthy.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
I forgot to mention we have an undersized backcourt. How are we going to defend 2’s this year? That could turn out kinda crappy, too.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
I think we'll be okay
Monta is an improved defender, and the fact that he came to camp 2 weeks early gives me hope that he’ll be a much more dedicated player this season – that should show on the defensive end. If there are games where we’re really getting abused, we can take him or curry out for stretches, and have D. Wright, Carney or Williams play the 2.
Furthermore, we can utilize a zone, and many teams with strong SGs have offensively inept SFs that Monta could spot.
Furthermore, we can utilize a zone, and many teams with strong SGs have offensively inept SFs that Monta could spot.
This is key.
If we are playing the Thunder, he’ll be taking Sefolosha instead of Durant. Or he’d defend Batum over Roy hopefully.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 26, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
D. Wright can’t play the 2. He’s too long. Not only does that higher center of gravity make it tougher to defend quicker players, he’s also far too valuable a defender at the 3. Carney, maybe. Reggie Williams? He was not a good defender last year. It takes some serious time in the NBA to develop defense. I don’t think we have anyone really solid at the 2, except maybe when Monta is at his best. He’s a pretty decent defender some days.
The Golden Glow is the only way to reach the upper level.
I think Carney probably.
REPLY TO DONUT
by GovernorStephCurry on Sep 27, 2010 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
D. Wright can’t play the 2. He’s too long. Not only does that higher center of gravity make it tougher to defend quicker players, he’s also far too valuable a defender at the 3.
Anyone that’s too small and quick for D Wright won’t be that big of a mismatch against Monta. Anyone that’s too big for Monta won’t be that big of a mismatch for D. Wright. I don’t see a big problem there.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
The Warriors will be 40-42
It’s almost a lock.
by Cpt. Jack in the Box on Sep 26, 2010 11:33 PM PDT reply actions
The Warriors will be 40-42
why not a nice symmetrical 41-41 ?
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Sep 27, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
52-25 is even more symmetrical.
(I’ll let you know what happens with the last five games when we get there…)
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Sep 27, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
52-25 is even more symmetrical.
but that would totally kill our draft position. Really hard to tank from .675 at mid season.
Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Sep 27, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
If there’s one thing I do know, 100% for sure, without a doubt, it’s that nothing is a lock.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Nah
i really beieve itll be a winning season this year. no playoffs (hopefully we can tho), but at least 42-40. we have the tools to win, we just need the chemistry now
Is this serious?
I almost can’t believe I read this:
“Here’s what to remember about last season:
Nellie’s record. Don’t let those Nellie haters distort history. This was fun and entertaining stuff all around. "
Ahhhh no. There was nothing fun and entertaining about the Dubs. Having a coach who was at best 1/2-in was not “fun and entertaining.”
“Key Losses
Head Coach Don Nelson
The biggest loss of them all was the Don. More on this later…”
I’m assuming I’m missing the sarcasm here. Don Nelson as the biggest loss? Not even close. This would have to go in the category with the positives.
thedubfan
Preach It!!!!
They will be crying 3 years from now….. Then they will hire Nellie back so he can purchase another 5% of Maui….
Thanks for the pre-season Jinx
No bueno
"I tell him straight, 'If you're going to lead, you have to be the first to practice. You have to come in, get your work down and be prepared for practice,' " assistant coach Keith Smart said. "He needs to figure out why he is having stomach problems and he's got to watch how LeBron (James), Kobe (Bryant) and D-Wade (Dwyane Wade) work. He needs to mimic that if he wants his teammates to speak volumes about him." -Keith Smart on Motna Ellis
by ejdacanay on Sep 27, 2010 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I know we shouldn't dwell in past negatives.
But it has to be said again-
Cohan—nice to know ya—don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Wow, I guess it's the season for optimism
I’m afraid I have GS battling for the ‘Worst of the West’ with Minnie. (Minnie will win) No D David Lee is a nice piece, but GS gave up way too much to get him. Add a complete change in team philosophy that takes time . . . .No defense, no depth, no hope. Mid twenties in wins. Again.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
David Lee is a nice piece? You might argue we gave up too much in terms of future talent, but David Lee, right now, is much, much, much better than anything we gave up. He’s more than a nice piece. He’s an impact player. Predicting mid-20’s makes absolutely 0 sense whatsoever.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Warriors will be better this year but...
1. Lakers
2. Dallas
3. Utah
4. OKC
5. Houston
6. Portland
7. San Antonio
8. Denver
9. Phoenix
10. Memphis
11. Warriors
12. New Orleans
13. Clips
14. Sacramento
15. Minnesota
The Warriors could realistically land anywhere between 10-15. If Carmelo gets his wish and gets his ticket out of Denver, then we have a slim (>25%) chance of getting that 8th spot. If I had to pick, I’d say the Suns/Grizz/Hornets would be favorites to replace Denver in that 8th spot. Also, there is a very real chance that the Kings/Hornets/Clips will finish with a better record than us. All of those teams have improving rosters with more depth than we have. I agree wth 34 wins, but maybe we’ll push 38 or 39 if we stay injury free and Keith Smart finds a way to get this miscast group of players to play as a coherent unit.
by Tom Huddlestone on Oct 26, 2010 8:13 PM PDT reply actions
34 wins is underselling us. Also, keep in mind all it takes is an injury to say, Deron Williams or Kevin Durant, and all of a sudden there’s an open playoff spot for someone not in your top 8 to take….
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
brooks and martin looked good
but they will be tired tomorrow, and we’re gonna run all over them… i’m predicting we start out 2-1… if we lose to the clips, we’ll beat the lakers, and vice versa…
Two Tics Way Up cuz We ONN Warriors Nation! Even if we lost Boom Dizzle we stizzle tic tic kaboombizzle never fizzle fuh rizzle. MUCH LOVE. Open Your Consciousness and LOOK UP Y'ALL. The Time Is NOW. – RGK
by ReluctantGoodKnight on Oct 26, 2010 10:58 PM PDT reply actions
Source?
I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 26, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Warriors need some serious help to make the playoffs
These could include:
Nuggets deal with internal drama and lead poisoning from all those crazy tattoos
Jazz lose Al Jeff to his annual injury and DWill starts grumbling about a trade demand to the east
Suns big names realize they are too old to be this good and that Hedo is no Stoudamire
Spurs do the same
Kings two young bad boys get arrested at a club
Baron decides that donuts taste better than wins
CP3 gets traded to Atlanta – he would make that team crazy good
internally – the following would happen:
Curry, Lee and Monta do their thing – with better defense and less turnovers
Beans shoots 80% from the stripe and becomes first player ever to win most improved based solely on free throw percentage – avgs 12 and 10 a game
D. Wright makes everyone think he is the second coming of Pippen, without the alien head
Brandan Wright makes everyone concur that trading J-Rich for him was a steal (for the dubs this time)
by tjmax on Oct 26, 2010 11:22 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
CP3 should get traded to Orlando
I believe that ghosts are like dogs. They just do things arbitrarily.
by Reverend_Randy on Oct 26, 2010 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I heard Portland wants him
Miller + Przybilla + Fernandez for CP3.
by ILoveWarriorsGirls on Oct 26, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The Warriors Are A Playoff Team
This is the way i see it, although i do not like our bench. Lee, Ellis and Curry are an elite trio, and if you can’t see that you are blind. Additionally, Wright has always been under valued and Beidrins looks ready. I see 6th or 7th seed, however, with the block we have in terms of expirings don’t be surprised if we get another elite player, making us top 5 material.
"He who lives on hope will die fasting" Benjamin Franklin was a fool
"If we are thinking playoffs, why not look towards the mountaintop"
I like my quote better
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 27, 2010 12:18 AM PDT reply actions
when i think of an elite player i think of someone who thinks of the team first….is monta that type of player?
by double the butter on Oct 27, 2010 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I think of someone with an all star appearance or two
I also think of someone who is efficient, keeps his team in the playoffs and scares the pants off other teams.
Monta is a very good player, maybe he will be great this year or next, but he is not an elite player.
So do you think Kobe is an elite player?
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 27, 2010 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
over the course of his career, of course he is
please don’t get into stats and all that – Kobe strikes fear in the hearts of opponents, he has carried his team on his back through the playoffs (although we only notice when he struggles) and he has won multiple titles. Titles qualifies as an elite player, period.
He is on the downside of his career, but he is still one of the top 5 players in the league.
please don’t get into stats and all that
Or in other words, please don’t use evidence to argue against my opinion. ;)
Titles qualifies as an elite player, period
Derek Fisher, elite player! There might be some fair arguments to make along these lines, but at least try to make them….
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I hate the Lakers too, but...
As long as guys who have played the game and guys who currently play the game continue to say he is one of the best in the game, I am going to tend to agree with them more than the biased opinions of warrior fans.
I want him to suck as much as anyone, but I’ve seen him play too much to say he isn’t an elite player.
As for your last comment – let me rephrase – if you are one of the best player on your team and that team wins titles, you qualify as elite
As long as guys who have played the game and guys who currently play the game continue to say he is one of the best in the game, I am going to tend to agree with them more than the biased opinions of warrior fans.
One of the problems is there’s an aspect of the game that’s been shown to be undervalued by fans, GM’s, evaluators, and likely players as well. That’s scoring efficiency. Scoring volume, on the other hand, is overvalued by the same group. And Kobe is very strong in the overvalued thing, and weaker (relative to elite players, that is) in the undervalued thing. So there’s acually good evidence he’s overvalued. It isn’t just biased opinions, though I would never say there isn’t bias present because we’re Warriors fans.
Another problem I have personally is I suspect most people judge players based on “skills”. What do we see them do when they play? And most of the people that do that don’t realize they’re doing it, either – they’ve never taken the time to think of skills v production. I see production as being what you should judge a player on – what he does to help win games. Why would you judge them on anything else? And again, Kobe rates better in “skills” than “production”, because he has the skills, he just doesn’t always put them to the best use in terms of winning games.
As for your last comment – let me rephrase – if you are one of the best player on your team and that team wins titles, you qualify as elite
Definitely a better way to put it. It’s not an unreasonable point to give some credit for that at all. I just don’t like saying that automatically qualifies him as elite. What if he played his entire career without ever having that second superstar (Shaq, then Pau)? We saw what happened when he didn’t – his team was a borderline playoff team that was pretty much capped at 2nd round. That wouldn’t make him any worse, would it? And it’s not something in his control….so I just don’t like going too overboard on those kinds of things. Kobe was fortunate enough to be on some very talented teams. He was a significant part of why they were so talented, but not even close to the only reason.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
by this logic - production vs skills
would you say that Monta sucks?
He is horribly inefficient – last year we were a better team when he was off the floor.
If he is a bad player from a production standpoint – do you really think we are going to win 48 games as some of your other posts imply?
Monta sucked last year from the production point of view that he made us worse. That doesn’t mean he’ll play as poorly this year. I expect him to play better.
Note that judging the past and projecting the future are two seperate beasts. For judging the past, I don’t see any reason to judge anything but how a player helped his team win/lose games. For projecting the future….well, that’s a much tougher thing to do, and a much bigger gray area. Definitely takes some looking at past production, definitely takes some evaluating the skills a guy has, takes some guesses as to what role he’s going to be in, etc. I’m not sure what we’ll get out of Monta. I am very confident it will be better than last year. It could be much, much better as Monta has shown he’s a good player in the past. If Monta plays decently well, I expect him to be our 4th best player, after Curry, Lee and Biedrins.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I am very confident it will be better than last year
(To clarify, I think this because I don’t see any way it could be worse)
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
48 wins? Playoffs?
I hope you are right – but I think you are being unrealistic. Care to make a bet on it?
I say we will be closer to 35 wins than to 48 wins. If you win, I am happy to pay up because then Warriors were better than I expected.
100 bucks?
“For judging the past, I don’t see any reason to judge anything but how a player helped his team win/lose games.”
by this logic, I would think you would deem Kobe as elite then
by this logic, I would think you would deem Kobe as elite then
The problem is that Kobe gets a disproportionate amount of credit for the Lakers success. The Lakers success is really a function of their dominant frontcourt. You can make a pretty strong argument that Kobe is no better than the third-best Laker.
Of course, Kobe gets all of the hype. He’s looks like a star – he’s photogenic, he’s got very visible competitive instincts, he has that magic fairy dust that screams “pay attention to me.”
And as a result, he gets way too much credit when they win. When he does something well, it’s front-page news. For example, last January or February Kobe hit a game-winning shot for the Lakers, and there were four or five front-page articles on ESPN.com about it.
In the playoffs, however, the Lakers won two series when Kobe missed – badly – a game winning shot and one of his teammates bailed him out. In one case he airballed the shot, and Artest got the rebound (which he probably wouldn’t have gotten if it wasn’t an airball), and in another Gasol got the offensive rebound for the putback because nobody blocked him out.
And yet there’s weren’t article after article on the front page on ESPN about how clutch Gasol was. Despite the fact that he did it in a playoff game, to win a series.
Kobe shoots 6-24 in the final game and the Lakers still win, and somehow he’s the MVP? There’s a huge disconnect here.
The mainstream media, as well as the league’s GMs, put a lot of stock in “volume scoring” whether or not somebody looks and feels like a “star” (usually: is athletic, black*, photogenic, and has a big personality). Why else would Amare get so much bigger of a contract than David Lee? Gasol fails all of those tests: he’s relatively unathletic, white, not photogenic, and his personality is pretty opaque. So despite being a much better player than Kobe, he gets less attention.
(*Just to be clear, I think the white/black thing is a blowback against us being oversold so many unathletic white players in the ‘80s and ’90s. Ferry. Laettner. Dunleavy. Fuller. Morrison. We were told so many times how these guys were going to be stars, and they didn’t pan out despite being drafted too high or overhyped, that we’ve all over-corrected and now undervalue the white guys who can actually deliver.)
I think most in the mainstream media
have said quite often that Kobe had a bad final game in the finals. This doesn’t take away from the fact that they wouldn’t be in the finals if it wasn’t for Kobe. He played poorly in the last game, but he played well in the other games, don’t they need to count as well in determining MVP? The rest of the team is very good – no doubt – but without Kobe they are, at best the Rockets from last year, with him they are NBA champs, multiple times.
Kobe is overrated in general, I agree. But to say he is not elite is to underrate him.
Well, Kobe is a good player ...
… so of course, if you took a good player off that team, they wouldn’t have been in the finals.
But it’s also clear that they wouldn’t have been in the finals without Gasol, Odom, or Artest. So why does Kobe get the “he’s the MVP because they wouldn’t be there without him” treatment?
Kobe’s penchant for taking dumb shots at the end of games would have knocked them out of the playoffs easily if not for his teammates. Yes, other players might have missed those shots, too – but Kobe took dumb shots when games were on the line. Most players don’t have the luxury of missing those shots and still advancing.
Is he “elite” or not? I guess that depends on your definition of elite. Third-best player on a dynastic team?
i'm not a kobe fan but...
if you guys are so quick to judge him individually without the other players being around….look at gasol before he came to the lakers…come on, the grizzles sucked balls…artest? well he was never the main guy to lift and take over a franchise…how many teams has he played for? and if any coach or GM thought he was then they would have put up with his child like tantrums…
anyways, i can’t believe someone asked if kobe is an elite player…of course he is..if he’s not then who is?
by double the butter on Oct 27, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Also -
.look at gasol before he came to the lakers…come on, the grizzles sucked balls
Gasol was traded midway through the 2007-08 season.
Laker wins GRizz wins
2006-07 42 22
2005-06 45 49
2004-05 34 45
2003-04 56 50
Kobe had Shaq on his team in 2003-04.
Gasol, during that period, had …?
Gasol was injured substantially in that 22-win season, by the way, and played in only 56 games.
I’d say Gasol’s pre-Kobe record stacks up pretty well compared to Kobe’s pre-Gasol, non-Shaq record.
I actually don’t think we’re a 48 win team or a playoff team. I think it’s very possible, but we’d need a little good luck for both of those. I think we’re more like a 44-45 win team that just misses the playoffs. I also am really not sure what to think of Smart, if he keeps playing the likes of Radwomanovich a decent amount of minutes, it sets my expectations back a bit. More than anything, I think his biggest impact will be on the rotations he chooses to play. I hope he does better than he’s done in the preseason and last year. I don’t know if he will or not.
Overall, I’m not really into the idea of taking bets from someone I don’t know online, but if you want to remember this conversation and bring it up after the season, I’m more than happy to revisit it and see how things played out compared to our projections. I know I’ve been wrong on things in the past (Anthony Morrow’s shooting ability!), and will be wrong on things in the future, and have no problem admitting to it if I am.
As for Kobe, I think in terms of what he does to help his team win/lose games, he’s roughly on the level of Clyde Drexler. Clyde was a pretty fine player and is a HoF’er, so sure, I don’t really object to calling Kobe elite. I wouldn’t put him in the inner ring of the HoF, though, nor would I rate him among the top 3 of his generation (Shaq/Duncan, then KG).
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
People need to settle down
We play in a very tough conference
If we can get to 40 wins that would be great (here is where you should be thrilled)
If we can get to 35 wins that would be an improvement (here is where you should be content)
If we can get to 30 wins we need to make a few minor roster move (here is where you should be a bit bummed)
If we only get to 25 wins we need a new coach and need to consider moving Monta (here is where you should be banging head against wall)
if we get 20 or less wins, um, man, we should try to tank – i guess (here is where you should realize that its basketball games and not important in the grand scheme of things)
I’ll decline your advice and not be “thrilled” unless we make the playoffs. If we just miss the playoffs and can turn the expirings of Vlad and Gadz into something good, I’ll be content. If we miss the playoffs but get lucky in lotto and land a top 2-3 prospect, I’ll go back to thrilled.
Otherwise, I’ll pretty much be banging my head against the wall.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 27, 2010 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I hope you have soft walls in your house
To make the playoffs we would need to win almost TWICE as many games as last year. I know we will be better, but not that better.
Why not? What does last year have to do with this year? We had a 32 win pythag record last year. We had a ridiculous amount of injuries, including all of our actual NBA caliber big men going down at the same time. We added David Lee, an impact player. We’ve seen what Curry is capable of, now he just needs to do that over a whole season. We’re much, much, much better than last years 26 wins. If you don’t think we’re a 48 win team, how good do you think we are, and more importantly, why?
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions
we are improved, but not by as much as you think
Why?
we have a new coach, learning on the job, Smart is not exactly Jerry Sloan people. Coaches matter, if he turns out to be great – that is wonderful, but it won’t happen overnight. I’m sure he would agree.
we have very little depth, and we lost two big men that would have really made Lee and Beans job easier
we have a great talent in Monta, but not yet a great all around player, again – this may happen but not overnight.
Size, speed, smarts and toughness win in the NBA – we are not good enough in 3 out of 4 of these areas yet.
Again, I like our team, but you have to recognize that we are building something long term here (better than the quick fix of the WE BELIEVE team imo) and that means growing pains. 35-40 wins seems like a great goal.
we have a new coach, learning on the job, Smart is not exactly Jerry Sloan people. Coaches matter, if he turns out to be great – that is wonderful, but it won’t happen overnight. I’m sure he would agree.
Coaching is probably the single biggest question mark in my mind. I don’t know what we’re going to get. That said, if we’re comparing last year to this year….well, I don’t see how it could possibly be that much worse. Smart coached soem of the games, and I don’t think Nellie was exactly doing an amazing job in the games he coached. We’ll see what happens. I don’t see it being a huge negative, though, for a couple of reasons – it’s really hard to find evidence that the population of NBA coaches differs in their talent level very much from each other. Not to say there’s no difference, but if it’s tough to find, that suggests that the difference isn’t huge. And again, whatever difference there is, I don’t think there’s that much room to get worse.
we have very little depth, and we lost two big men that would have really made Lee and Beans job easier
Well, I’m not sure we have “very little depth”. We have Wright, Reggie and Amudson off the bench, which is pretty good. You’d be hard pressed to find good players after the top 8 on any team. Depth is a concern, but it’s generally not that important to winning games, and it’s not like we have no bench at all. As for Amudson/Udoh, Amudson isn’t out that long, and I don’t expect much out of Udoh anyways, so I don’t see it as that big of a deal.
we have a great talent in Monta, but not yet a great all around player, again – this may happen but not overnight
Well, the thing with Monta, is he can’t possibly be worse than last season. Even if he plays just as bad, that he won’t play as many minutes or have as big of a role means he hurts us less. Net positive.
Again, I like our team, but you have to recognize that we are building something long term here (better than the quick fix of the WE BELIEVE team imo) and that means growing pains. 35-40 wins seems like a great goal.
Well, yes, and no. Sure, I expect some growing pains. I also hope we’re building something better than we have now, because we’re not a title contender. But we’re not completely rebuilding or anything. You don’t go out and add a David Lee if you don’t expect to compete soon, and be significantly better right now. 35-40 wins seems like a nice improvement from 26, and it is, but the reason I wouldn’t be happy with it at all is because we have more talent than that right now. Getting some guys healthy, adding David Lee, getting the development out of Curry I expect….we have a decent amount of talent, right now. Better than 35 wins. 35 wins would be underachieving by a decent amount. 40 wins would disappoint me greatly if we have a very healthy season. If there are some good reasons (like David Lee getting hurt or something) that contribute to 40 wins, then I wouldn’t be too disappointed. Depends on how much is us underachiving, and how much is factors out of our control.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
udoh
you say you don’t expect much from him..which i kind of agree looking at the history of warrior draft picks (minus curry of course), but honestly when will the warriors draft someone who is gonna stand out the 1st year or even second year before everyone gets impatient and ships them out for another draft pick or lesser player…so i really do hope he does well and i hope smart gives him a chance and he takes advantage of it.
by double the butter on Oct 27, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
I hope you have soft walls in your house
Haha. That’s where padded cells come in handy… ;-P
Seriously, man, your reading of the tea leaves is duly noted. Plenty of respected posters here, as well as fairly respected hoops sites like Basketball Prospectus and Wages of Wins, disagree with your reading of the tea leaves.
It sounds like you’re the one who needs to “settle down,” accept that other people have a different take from you, and stop repeating yourself.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 27, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
do the Math peeps
Most rational people on this site seem to be saying that we are, at best, a 7-10 spot team. Some say we are in the lower echelon, 10-13 spot. Let’s say we are in the middle, the ten spot. This means that their are 9 teams better than us. If, on average, we beat all the teams worse than us and lose to all the teams better than us, then we will garner about 30 wins and 50 losses.
This doesn’t take into account the Eastern teams, but those teams are better than in years past. Let’s say for the sake of argument that we’d be an 8 seed in the west.
On average, we are still looking at a team that wins 35 games, give or take a few.
The 10th best team in the West last year won 40 games.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2010 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Most rational people on this site seem to be saying that we are, at best, a 7-10 spot team…[snip]
Haha. This is like a shaky assumption resting on a shaky assumption resting on a shaky assumption.
Back on planet earth: as with any team, the Warriors’ record will rest in large part on the production of the starting five. Curry, Monta, Dorell, Lee, Biedrins. There are some decent reasons to think that starting five, if it stays healthy, is capable of 40-50 wins. There are some question marks too (can Monta and Biedrins get closer to ‘07/08 form? Will Dorell’s solid rate #s translate to 30+ minutes a game? e.g.) but dubious yardsticks like the opinion of “most rational people on this site” and the performance last season of guys like Hunter, Maggs, Rudolph, Ronny and Mikki only serve to muddy the picture.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Oct 27, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
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