GSoM's 2010-2011 Golden State Warriors Preview: A new beginning, but is it smart?

Originally posted Sep 26, 2010 7:40 PM PDT

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Download the 1280x800 wallpaper courtesy of your man Tony.psd

Jump like the entire Dubs Nation did when we all first heard about The Sale!

I always like to look back before I look forward (it's the T.R.O.Y. in me), so flip back to last year's preview before we dissect the upcoming 2010-2011 Golden State Warriors season:

Onward...

2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Rewind

Last Year's Record: 26-56

Here's what to remember about last season:

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  • Nellie's record. Don't let those Nellie haters distort history. This was fun and entertaining stuff all around. Bonus points for the Sierra Mist sprinkler celebration in the locker room.
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Wins 1,332 and 1,333 were a great time out!

A look back at #1,332 and #1,333,:
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More fun than Barry Bonds' HR record?!

2010 Golden State Warriors Offseason Rewind

Key Losses

Corey Maggette

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It was probably the right long term move, but Maggette will indeed be missed around these parts:

...another non-basketball move? Sheesh. Corey Maggette is not a perfect player by any stretch of the imagination, but he is NOT Marco Belinelli. You don't just send him away for nothing, which is what this trade will most likely amount to for the Warriors.

Third of all, I must say I feel bad for Larry Riley. Every since he's stepped into the GM role for the Warriors he's been forced to make one non-basketball and Cohan dollar saving move after another. I *think* Riley is a good scout and can be a capable GM, but he really hasn't gotten much of a chance. This is the exact opposite situation that Chris Mullin walked into back in 2004 with the Warriors where we he was given a blank paycheck... and proceeded to ink some of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NBA. Aside from drafting Riley really hasn't gotten much of a chance.

Fourth, thank you Corey for being a true soldier here. You can now go back to being one of the ultimate Warrior Killers. I expect you to make at least 12 trips to the free throw line next time you're in Oakland.

Check out:

Anthony Randolph

Hopefully someday Randolph learns how to play winning (he didn't even play on winning teams in college or in high school), team-oriented basketball with the professionalism that's required in the NBA. Until then there's absolutely no point in having him on an NBA roster. I chuckle when I read pieces about he's likely to breakout this season or that the Warriors screwed up by trading this young player with unlimited upside (by people who probably have never even see him play). I prefer to reserve that projection for players who have some semblance of hoops IQ and fundamentals. 

Kelenna Azubuike

Azubuike is the best D-League call-up in NBA Development League history and I don't mean that in even the slightest antagonistic way. Sadly he seems like damaged goods and the Warriors probably traded him at the right time.

Ronny Turiaf

I'll miss the energy, character, charitable efforts, and fun attitude. I won't miss the poor rebounding, poor shooting, and overall poor defense (simply trying to block everything in sight does not make for good D).

Anthony Morrow

I'm very sad to say my personal fav will not sporting a Dubs jersey this season. Hopefully there's some way in the future AMMO can light up the Oracle once again (versus lighting up the Warriors), but I can't fault GM Larry Riley and crew for not wanting to match the Nets' price tag.

Chris Cohan

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

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No thanks for the memories, but thanks for selling- FINALLY!

Head Coach Don Nelson

The biggest loss of them all was the Don. More on this later...

 

Key Additions

David Lee

The Warriors had essentially no chips this summer, but they walked away with a 20-12-3.5 All-Star big man. You do the math.

Genius.

Give Larry Riley (and whoever else made it happen) props. In 1 year as the GM of the Warriors he did something his 2 predecessors couldn't do in (mostly painful) multi-year stints: add a legit power forward to this team.

Warriors fans are going to like a lot about Lee. A LOT.

Check out:

Epke Udoh

Truth be told when the David Stern was saying "With the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors select..." I was hoping to hear "GREG MONROE FROM GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY!" That didn't happen. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.

Also see:

Dan Gadzuric

I'm not expecting much, but whatever he can pitch in defensively would be fantastic.

Charlie Bell

I'm not expecting much, but whatever he can pitch in defensively would be fantastic. (Sound familiar?)

Dorell Wright

The Warriors need athletic wings. Hopefully he fits the bill.

Check out: Is Dorell Wright Primed for a Breakout Season?

Rodney Carney

The Warriors need athletic wings. Hopefully he fits the bill. (Sound familiar?)

Check out: Golden State Warriors Sign Rodney Carney- Going back to 2006 with Patrick O'Bryant + Kosta Perovic

Jeremy Lin

Okay maybe it was a publicity stunt, but as an Asian American, (East) Palo Alto resident, and Warriors fan I'm rooting for Lin to make it and prove the doubters wrong.

The post that started it all: Bow to the Jeremy Lin Movement (b-o-w = Based On What?)

Check out:

Louis Amundson

Give the Warriors props for signing the NBA's top remaining unsigned free agent 2 weeks before training camp. I'm kidding, but there's a lot to like with this seemingly trivial signing.

Check out: Warriors to Sign Louis Amundson: You Asked, They Listened? :: Finally Some Depth Up Front for Golden State

New Owners: Joe Lacob and Peter Gruber

The biggest addition of them all was a new ownership tandem. Seriously, WELCOME!

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via epiphanytourney09.tripod.com


2010-2011 Golden State Warriors Projections

Biggest Strengths

Pick + Roll

Once Stephen Curry and David Lee get in rythym, you're going to like the sound of this. Pick and roll all day, every day. Even Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are reasonably solid pick and roll cogs. (That's of course provided Biedrins doesn't play scared again.)

Rebounding

Yes, you read that right. The Warriors are set to be a very nice Windex team. David Lee and Andris Biedrins are elite rebounders, Louis Amundson is solid, and Stephen Curry opened some eyes with his nice work on the boards last season. Who knows maybe even Monta can get back to his earlier rebounding rates. Even if he doesn't, the Warriors project to be at their best level in this department in years- decades perhaps.

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It's the first time GSW is cleaning the glass since... the Danny Fortson era?

GM

Warriors fans most recently suffered through the  Dave Twardzik, Gary St. Jean, and Chris Mullin/ Robert Rowell eras. Incompetence was the norm. Simply silly moves were the norm. There's still some of the Mullin/ Rowell mess to be cleaned up (the Ellis/ Biedrins "master plan" as well as the lost 1st round draft pick and laptops to the Nets for Marcus WIlliams)

 

Biggest Weaknesses

The Human Powered Turnover Machine

Stephen Jackson (and his same number of wins in the 2010 NBA Playoffs as the Warriors last season) being gone definitely helps in this category. However, anytime Monta is on the court there's always a risk of a silly turnover- hoops IQ is not his strong point. Curry was also prone to the careless turnover (mostly from lazy one handed passes) last season. Taking care of business for the Warriors this year means taking care of the rock. Ellis and Curry really need to step up here.

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It's not a healthy breakfast and it's not healthy for the Warriors win total.


Charmin' Soft Interior

Can Louis Amundson, Dan Gadzuric, and Ekpe Udoh give the Warriors some interior toughness? Let's hope so because it isn't likely to come from the likely starting 4-5 tandem Andris Biedrins and David Lee.

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The Warriors D in the paint.

Coaching

There's a few reasons to be happy about Smart getting this gig:

  • He genuinely seems like a really nice guy.
  • The players really seem to like him
  • It's a smooth transition from Nellie since he's been running the practices for awhile.
  • Nellie anointed Smart the heir (way back in January 2007 actually). The last person Nellie anointed was of course Avery Johnson, which aside from WE BELIEVE turned out pretty well for the Dallas Mavericks. Speaking of which isn't it a little odd how the media never gives Nellie props for this? Bill Walsh used to get (deserved) props for opening up doors for his assistant coaches, minorities in particular. Nellie deserves some love for this as well.

However, there's a multitude of reasons to not be happy about Smart getting this gig. In terms of actual head coaching experience he doesn't exactly have the best track record. He was the Warriors "defensive coordinator" the past season and defense (aside from turnovers) was the Warriors downfall.

The Warriors simply are a worse coached team under Smart than Nellie. Smart currently ranks in the very bottom in the ranks of NBA head coaches. I wouldn't be too surprised if this is a 1 year or interim head coaching gig.

Point blank: Don Nelson could take this team to the playoffs. Keith Smart probably cannot. It's just asking way too much from him.

 

GSW Goals for 2010-2011

Player Level

  • Stephen Curry: Continue the 26.4 ppg, 8.1 apg, 6.4 rpg, and 2.6 stls pace of the final month of last season. (Seriously those were some MONSTER numbers!) 
  • David Lee: Bring that 20-12 from the East Coast to the West Coast.
  • Monta Ellis: Boost trade value to entice the Nuggets to move Carmelo Anthony.
  • Andris Biedrins: See above plus show up some semblance of commitment to the game of basketball and quit complaining and playing scared. 
  • Brandan Wright: Play more than 41 games. That is all.
  • Louis Amundson: Bring the D and work on the glass. Possibly even beat out Biedrins for the starting spot.
  • Rodney Carney: Get the 3pt shooting percentage back up to where it was 2 seasons ago at 35.0%.
  • Jeremy Lin: Show everyone why you belong in the NBA.
  • Charlie Bell: Add a much needed defensive element to the Dubs backcourt.
  • Dan Gadzuric: Step up when the other Warriors bigs are injured or struggling.
  • Vladimir Radmanovic: Contribute somehow.
  • Reggie Williams: Keep scoring at a hot rate.
  • Dorell Wright: Emerge.
  • Epke Udoh: Be a great New Year's 2011 present.

Team Level

  • Continue to improve the roster through creative trades like the David Lee one. The Warriors are much closer than they were the previous two years. Just a few more good moves and in-house improvements will do it.
  • Make a push for the playoffs. The bottom of the West is slowly crumbling. It's a new decade and this shouldn't continue to be the Western Conference of old. 
  • Defense. Play some for a change.
GSW Projections for 2010-2011

BOLD Predictions

 

 

 

 

  • Andris Biedrins and his 16% FT will be playing somewhere else by next August.
  • Monta Ellis has his league-leading 3.8 turnovers a game will be playing somewhere else by next August.
  • Larry Riley will be this team's GM for this season and the next at a minimum.
  • Either Dan Gadzuric ($7.2 million) or Vladamir Radmonovic's ($6.9 million) expiring contracts will actually be used to improve this team hoops-wise in a trade before the 2011 NBA trading deadline. (I know, what a concept.)
  • Everyone will miss and finally appreciate Don Nelson. Man I'm going to miss The Don Nelson Show on KNBR with The Razor and Mr. T.
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Thanks coach!

We'll save you a seat at GSoM Night 9.


Overall record

Unless there's some major trades and talent upgrades minus Nellie we're looking at:

34-48

Meaning, no playoffs
Don't get me wrong though. This will be a fun and interesting season.
Isn't it always?

 

GSoM Night 9

Let's kick things off right this year everyone. New logo, new jerseys, new players, new owner, but your same ol' golden friends. Join us:

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