I’ve taken Randolph’s skills/potential into careful consideration during his early tenure. While my observations probably differ from yours, I’ve come to some conclusions about the kind of player I think he will be in this league. The main thing about the David Lee trade, is that it immediately upgrades the talent level, politics, and chemistry of your team, which is essential during a time that marks significant change. There is a sense of urgency, that in order for this new ownership to take it’s strongest effect, it must do so by taking less of a gamble in immediate regards to how it performs within the observation of the league for the first 3 years.

David Lee makes everybody on the team better, in some way – Even Monta Ellis. I don’t think Randolph is that kind of player. Right now, he arguably makes players worse, with his complete misunderstanding of the playbook, where to be on offense relative of the ball, and his black hole nature once he receives it. I’m not sure what kind of post game he will develop, but at this point in his career, it appears he’s making a push towards becoming a Durant/Odom kind of player. A perimeter forward.

He seems uncomfortable on the block, both from a talent perspective, and a mentally fueled one. His enjoyment of the game and self depiction as a player, lies heavily on his ability to dribble the ball and slash. I was disenchanted by his fixation on preferring the ball at 16 feet, rather than on the block. His observation and aspiration of his own game, is a bit faulty. I would be a bit more open to thinking he’s able to take on a different mentality, if he were a bit more mature, and humble about his talents. In other words, if he chooses to continue to develop perimeter skills(which by indication he will), then I’m not confident in his ability to be a true superstar. He will make plays on both ends, no doubt, but he wouldn’t be the player he could be, and that player would (if everything worked out accordingly) be better than David Lee, almost without a doubt.

Again, in hindsight, if he prefers to be a perimeter forward (Amare for the max, at the 4 would also support this notion) I’m not confident he would be any better than your above average SF. His shot blocking and rebounding would obviously set him above his peers in those categories, but as far as his potential as an offensive force, we’re looking at shooting, ball handling, and passing – Skills I think many small forwards would have him beat. Sure, he creates a mismatch, but what good is a mismatch if you’re not particularly masterful at any of these things. Not to mention, his perimeter on ball defense does not look very strong, and I think the mismatch he creates on the other end would cancel itself out in this respect. At a lanky 7 feet, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to keep up with prototypical wings. He’s athletic for his size, but even the most athletic players of his height would struggle against the more mobile players 6’5 – 6’8 out there.

When Randolph says things like "I want to be one of the best to ever play the game." While I admire his confidence, his self image as a player can also be a hindrance. If he’s fixed on being "one of the greatest of all times" as a SF/perimeter 4, I think he’s in danger of becoming a career volume scorer. His personality + this ingredient, is not something I’d look forward to. If he does in fact improve to be in the all-star conversation some day, (whenever that may be) I suspect it won’t be as a player free of some pretty glaring flaws.

I am not too confident in his leadership skills. I’ve been extremely discouraged with his body language at times. I’ve seen players bust him out on the sideline during timeouts for making very dumb mistakes, and have watched him exit the game mentally, after moments like that. Well, he’s young, right? Sure, but then again, there are players his exact age who show mountains of maturity by comparison. He’s not a natural leader. David Lee is a natural leader, both vocally, and by example. All-star players who share his hustle along with his annual income, are few and far between.

Again, I would be much higher on Anthony if I he would show me some semblance of a post game. Well this can be taught and developed, right? Sure, but you have to consider the scale on which to expect such improvements. I don’t see any natural ability at all in the post. I rarely have seen him make a move towards the basket and use his pivot to go to one side, and come back the other. Not a lot of creativity. A lot of stubborn, athletically spurred, pissing contests. I noticed he’d much rather prefer to go away from the basket and shoot a fade-away jump shot. Also, I’m not impressed with his touch around the basket. These are skills that come a bit more naturally, and it’s not like he’s 16 years old. I’ve seen him miss many point blank shots, and I’ve often seen him misread the defense in coordination to finding an opening to get off a high percentage shot. I don’t like his instincts on the block.

I’m not sure how much better Randolph will be than Lee, and like you said, it’s uncertain to know if he can even be as good as Lee. Riley’s genius lies more in the realm of his ability to construct a lineup that theoretically fits twice as well as the one we had last year, while he managed to do this in such short time’s notice. He’s shown initiative, and ambition is a trait found in all great men.

We will not know for a couple of years who got the better end of that trade. But that’s sort of the whole point. Even if Randolph does turn out to be an awesome superstar(which for the above reasons, I think he will not), David Lee is not a bad consolation prize, especially given the nature of his role within the confines of the designed roster.

Contractually, I think Randolph will demand a large salary before his time as a proven player is due. I think teams will then be in a dangerous position of overspending to keep him. Popular trend is to pay big men with that kind of athletic ability around the 9-10 mil dollar range. I would hate for the Warriors to have had to make that call.

I apologize for reposting this, as I’m aware it seems a little presumptuous, but this is pretty much my only take on Randolph…