This just in: Louis Amundson close to decision

you know how at draft time, we always say how valuable bigs are. I think that’s because in absolute terms, they generally produce more wins for a team (i.e. the P48). Although it’s interesting to note that LeBron James’ P48 (0.620) was actually ranked #4 in the league, only trailing Howard, Camby, and Duncan. (That shows how ridiculously good James is even compared to other bigs.)

The WP48 is trying to identify a position-independent metric, but maybe it’s also important to look at the absolute production, as well. For example, let’s go back to the (bad idea) of trading Biedrins for Melo. Biedrins’ P48 is 0.537, compared to Melo’s 0.308.

However, the assumption that all five positions on the floor are equally valuable, while probably not perfect, follows logically if you assume that GMs and coaches are making rational decisions (which, of course, it another can of worms).

eg, if bigs are more valuable, then at the margins you would tend to see teams choose to play average bigs over above-average wings.

That is to say, why do most teams play a “3” who’s is more like a “2” than a “4” most of the time? If bigs are more valuable, then you would be willing to play a less-talented 4-like 3 over a more-talented 2-like 3.

But in practice, that tends to create an exploitable situation for your opponent defensively (where they beat that player with speed) and offensively (where you have a hard time finding things for three bigs to do, so you move one outside, allowing your opponent to play something like 5-on-4 defensively.)

So the challenge of cross-position comparisons is that the effect it has on the team depends a lot on the other players involved.

For example, ignoring age for a moment, imagine trading Dwight Howard for Jason Kidd. A big part of coming out ahead in that trade is going to be who fills those minutes: all of a sudden Dallas is running Barea out their as a point guard, while Orlando still has Gortat at center, who’s above-average.

So it seems quite likely that, barring other moves, Orlando would “win” the trade – Dallas is left with too big a hole in their roster. But of course it’s silly to say “Kidd is better than Howard because Dallas doesn’t have another decent point guard” – rather, the way to phrase it is that “Kidd was more valuable to Dallas* last season than Howard was to Orlando.”

I find it amusing that Kidd has come under fire here since the traditional argument against WP is that it favors big by considering rebounding so important.

*That asterix is because I strongly suspect Kidd’s play is about to fall off a cliff. He was exposed in the playoffs. If other teams realize how you can now render him ineffective by playing him to take away his 3-pt shot, which would have been stupid for most of his career.

Jae, cmon. I’m not one to use the common sense gibe but seriously I don’t know how an extremely limited offensive player, who scores at a high volume, and can’t defend quick point guards can be the 4th best player in the league. Yes, he’s a great passer, yes he’s a very good rebounder, yes his scoring efficiency is nice, but that’s not enough to be better than players like Wade, Dirk, Bosh, Lee, Rondo, etc.