Who Are The NBA's Most Valuable Foul Shooters?

by Evanz on Oct 2, 2011 10:29 AM PDT in NBA Stats

So far in this series I've looked at inside, mid-range, and 3-pt scoring. In this post, I will define the rating for foul shooting. The final post of the series will look at the total scoring rating, which is simply the sum of all four parts.

The logic for developing the foul shooting rating is essentially the same as for all the previous ratings. We compare the player's free throw rate (FTA per 100 possessions) and free throw efficiency to the league averages at his position.

As always, we demonstrate the rating calculation with a specific player. In this case, we'll use Kevin Martin who basically makes his living at the charity stripe:

Kevin Martin averages 12.2 FTA per 100 possessions at 89.1%. The league averages for SG are 4.41 and 80.1%, respectively. The first term in the rating, therefore, represents Martin's marginal value for the FTA he is expected to take. The second term represents the marginal value attributed to his additional FTA above the average. The term 1.08*0.44 represents the value that those FTA would bring if they were average possessions. Here, 1.08 is the approximate point value of a possession and 0.44 is the conversion factor to determine how many possessions would have been used by a certain number of FTA. Finally, the third term represents the marginal value of the Martin's AND1 free throw rate (per 100 possessions). Clearly, Martin generates a tremendous amount of value from his free throws. In fact, as you will see in the next post, his free throw rating alone is enough to propel him into the overall top 5. Of course, if we knew more specifically where on the court Martin draws fouls, the value could be distributed into the other three ratings. But we don't have those data, so for now, we have to resort to this separate rating for free throws.

Here were the most valuable free throw shooters last season according to this rating system:

Top 25 Starters

RANK	NAME	TEAM	POS	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
1	Kevin Martin	HOU	SG	4.14	12.2	89.1%	0.856
2	Kevin Durant	OKC	SF	3.22	10.8	88.0%	0.618
3	Carmelo Anthony	DEN	SF	2.81	11.0	81.3%	0.880
4	Kobe Bryant	LAL	SG	2.61	10.3	82.0%	0.831
5	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	PF	2.51	8.6	90.0%	0.626
6	Russell Westbrook	OKC	PG	2.49	10.9	83.4%	0.683
7	Dwyane Wade	MIA	SG	2.22	11.0	73.4%	1.138
8	Rodney Stuckey	DET	PG	2.18	8.5	85.6%	1.028
9	Chauncey Billups	DEN	PG	2.16	8.4	93.0%	0.431
10	Kevin Love	MIN	PF	2.13	8.9	84.4%	0.610
11	Brook Lopez	NJN	C	2.10	8.1	76.3%	1.034
12	Derrick Rose	CHI	PG	2.09	9.1	85.2%	0.766
13	Danilo Gallinari	NYK	SF	2.07	8.4	89.4%	0.308
14	Manu Ginobili	SAS	SG	2.07	7.9	87.7%	0.656
15	LeBron James	MIA	SF	2.06	10.4	74.9%	0.981
16	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	PF	2.06	9.5	77.3%	0.997
17	Paul Pierce	BOS	SF	1.94	7.8	85.0%	0.786
18	Deron Williams	UTA	PG	1.92	8.6	85.5%	0.742
19	Ramon Sessions	CLE	PG	1.79	9.7	82.3%	0.506
20	Devin Harris	NJN	PG	1.77	9.0	83.6%	0.625
21	Andrea Bargnani	TOR	C	1.77	6.8	79.8%	0.830
22	Danny Granger	IND	SF	1.74	8.1	85.3%	0.459
23	Eric Gordon	LAC	SG	1.72	7.8	82.3%	0.788
24	Chris Bosh	MIA	PF	1.59	8.2	80.0%	0.662
25	Nene Hilario	DEN	C	1.36	7.9	67.2%	1.068

And the bottom...

Bottom 25 Starters

RANK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
161	Rajon Rondo	BOS	-1.78	2.7	55.1%	0.105
160	Mike Bibby	ATL	-1.76	1.4	61.9%	0.130
159	Ben Wallace	DET	-1.63	2.6	33.3%	0.000
158	Keith Bogans	CHI	-1.59	1.1	63.3%	0.000
157	Jason Kidd	DAL	-1.47	1.5	86.7%	0.039
156	Kurt Thomas	CHI	-1.47	1.3	59.3%	0.141
155	Andris Biedrins	GSW	-1.42	1.1	30.0%	0.036
154	Shane Battier	HOU	-1.38	2.0	63.0%	0.084
153	Kenyon Martin	DEN	-1.32	2.7	54.5%	0.246
152	Andrew Bogut	MIL	-1.32	4.9	41.5%	0.237
151	DeAndre Jordan	LAC	-1.29	5.3	43.8%	0.179
150	Mario Chalmers	MIA	-1.25	2.0	86.9%	0.034
149	Derek Fisher	LAL	-1.23	2.2	79.6%	0.163
148	Ryan Gomes	LAC	-1.23	2.0	70.7%	0.075
147	Wesley Johnson	MIN	-1.19	2.1	68.6%	0.143
146	Boris Diaw	CHA	-1.17	2.2	65.5%	0.193
145	Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	-1.16	1.9	73.0%	0.127
144	Jason Richardson	ORL	-1.15	2.3	71.3%	0.085
143	Ron Artest	LAL	-1.14	2.9	65.9%	0.111
142	DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	-1.13	1.8	75.0%	0.137
141	Omri Casspi	SAC	-1.08	2.7	66.7%	0.176
140	Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	-1.03	3.1	65.4%	0.200
139	Jose Calderon	TOR	-0.99	2.4	89.8%	0.097
138	Anthony Parker	CLE	-0.95	2.1	76.2%	0.224
137	Spencer Hawes	PHI	-0.94	2.5	51.9%	0.215

Here are the top 10 non-starters:

Top 10 Non-Starters

RANK	NAME	TEAM	POS	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
1	Corey Maggette	MIL	SF	3.21	11.5	83.4%	0.873
2	Louis Williams	PHI	PG	1.92	10.1	81.8%	0.541
3	James Harden	OKC	SG	1.52	7.8	83.7%	0.465
4	Hakim Warrick	PHX	PF	1.13	10.2	70.7%	0.512
5	Zaza Pachulia	ATL	C	1.10	7.4	74.1%	0.392
6	Jamal Crawford	ATL	SG	0.87	5.7	87.7%	0.371
7	George Hill	SAS	PG	0.78	6.0	85.8%	0.561
8	Jerryd Bayless	TOR	PG	0.72	6.9	80.7%	0.512
9	Jarrett Jack	NOH	PG	0.67	6.3	84.1%	0.444
10	Carl Landry	SAC	PF	0.61	7.0	68.6%	0.883

Warriors

NAME	TEAM	POS	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
Monta Ellis	GSW	SG	0.63	6.4	78.4%	0.441
Al Thornton	GSW	SF	0.58	5.1	80.6%	0.660
Stephen Curry	GSW	PG	0.33	4.1	95.1%	0.445
David Lee	GSW	PF	0.13	4.5	75.8%	0.596
Reggie Williams	GSW	SG	-0.38	3.8	72.5%	0.442
Jeremy Lin	GSW	PG	-0.41	4.3	78.3%	0.370
Dorell Wright	GSW	SF	-0.50	3.4	78.6%	0.208
Ekpe Udoh	GSW	C	-0.61	3.1	63.9%	0.150
Acie Law	GSW	PG	-0.64	4.0	73.5%	0.411
Rodney Carney	GSW	SF	-0.70	3.8	68.0%	0.302
Jeff Adrien	GSW	PF	-0.98	4.5	52.9%	0.529
Vladimir Radmanovic	GSW	PF	-1.10	1.4	87.5%	0.088
Andris Biedrins	GSW	C	-1.42	1.1	30.0%	0.036
Brandan Wright	GSW	PF	-1.54	3.3	46.2%	0.257
Dan Gadzuric	GSW	C	-1.55	2.4	35.7%	0.000
Charlie Bell	GSW	SG	-1.74	1.2	50.0%	0.000
Louis Amundson	GSW	PF	-2.13	5.9	35.0%	0.370

Finally, here are the ratings for starters broken down by position (ORK=overall rank; PRK=position rank):

Point Guards

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
6	1	Russell Westbrook	OKC	2.49	10.9	83.4%	0.683
8	2	Rodney Stuckey	DET	2.18	8.5	85.6%	1.028
9	3	Chauncey Billups	DEN	2.16	8.4	93.0%	0.431
12	4	Derrick Rose	CHI	2.09	9.1	85.2%	0.766
18	5	Deron Williams	UTA	1.92	8.6	85.5%	0.742
19	6	Ramon Sessions	CLE	1.79	9.7	82.3%	0.506
20	7	Devin Harris	NJN	1.77	9.0	83.6%	0.625
29	8	Chris Paul	NOH	1.10	6.7	87.7%	0.470
42	9	D.J. Augustin	CHA	0.69	5.3	91.2%	0.467
54	10	Andre Miller	POR	0.52	5.8	87.5%	0.272
55	11	John Wall	WAS	0.44	7.4	75.3%	0.467
58	12	Steve Nash	PHX	0.39	4.8	92.8%	0.289
63	13	Stephen Curry	GSW	0.33	4.1	95.1%	0.445
64	14	Brandon Jennings	MIL	0.29	5.8	84.3%	0.246
69	15	Darren Collison	IND	0.24	4.4	88.8%	0.512
84	16	Tony Parker	SAS	-0.00	5.7	74.6%	0.554
91	17	Raymond Felton	NYK	-0.14	4.1	88.8%	0.245
92	18	Beno Udrih	SAC	-0.15	3.8	87.4%	0.409
97	19	Ty Lawson	DEN	-0.31	4.8	73.9%	0.520
110	20	Kyle Lowry	HOU	-0.51	4.7	75.1%	0.279
111	21	Jrue Holiday	PHI	-0.51	3.3	80.6%	0.492
117	22	Baron Davis	LAC	-0.56	3.8	76.6%	0.409
122	23	Jameer Nelson	ORL	-0.64	3.5	82.8%	0.210
123	24	Luke Ridnour	MIN	-0.66	3.0	89.1%	0.185
127	25	Mike Conley	MEM	-0.78	4.4	73.5%	0.166
134	26	Eric Bledsoe	LAC	-0.88	3.4	73.1%	0.343
139	27	Jose Calderon	TOR	-0.99	2.4	89.8%	0.097
149	28	Derek Fisher	LAL	-1.23	2.2	79.6%	0.163
150	29	Mario Chalmers	MIA	-1.25	2.0	86.9%	0.034
157	30	Jason Kidd	DAL	-1.47	1.5	86.7%	0.039
160	31	Mike Bibby	ATL	-1.76	1.4	61.9%	0.130
161	32	Rajon Rondo	BOS	-1.78	2.7	55.1%	0.105

Shooting Guards

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
1	1	Kevin Martin	HOU	4.14	12.2	89.1%	0.856
4	2	Kobe Bryant	LAL	2.61	10.3	82.0%	0.831
7	3	Dwyane Wade	MIA	2.22	11.0	73.4%	1.138
14	4	Manu Ginobili	SAS	2.07	7.9	87.7%	0.656
23	5	Eric Gordon	LAC	1.72	7.8	82.3%	0.788
30	6	DeMar Derozan	TOR	1.02	6.6	79.4%	0.674
37	7	Wes Matthews	POR	0.78	5.8	85.5%	0.335
38	8	Stephen Jackson	CHA	0.77	6.4	81.3%	0.379
39	9	Richard Hamilton	DET	0.71	6.0	84.9%	0.218
44	10	Monta Ellis	GSW	0.63	6.4	78.4%	0.441
47	11	Randy Foye	LAC	0.57	4.8	91.5%	0.235
52	12	Brandon Roy	POR	0.54	5.5	84.0%	0.295
53	13	Nick Young	WAS	0.52	5.3	83.3%	0.383
57	14	Tyreke Evans	SAC	0.42	6.0	74.9%	0.564
67	15	Jodie Meeks	PHI	0.27	4.1	92.0%	0.204
68	16	Joe Johnson	ATL	0.24	4.8	81.9%	0.361
70	17	Tony Allen	MEM	0.21	6.0	73.5%	0.423
71	18	Ray Allen	BOS	0.17	3.8	91.7%	0.277
80	19	Kirk Hinrich	WAS	0.07	3.3	90.3%	0.427
82	20	Gerald Henderson	CHA	0.03	5.0	77.3%	0.295
86	21	Ben Gordon	DET	-0.01	3.8	87.3%	0.252
94	22	Anthony Morrow	NJN	-0.26	2.9	92.9%	0.205
95	23	Arron Afflalo	DEN	-0.28	3.3	84.8%	0.263
109	24	Marco Belinelli	NOH	-0.51	3.2	80.5%	0.192
119	25	Vince Carter	PHX	-0.61	3.2	69.8%	0.446
121	26	Raja Bell	UTA	-0.63	2.6	91.1%	0.025
124	27	Sonny Weems	TOR	-0.68	3.2	76.7%	0.144
126	28	Tracy McGrady	DET	-0.72	4.0	68.0%	0.230
130	29	Landry Fields	NYK	-0.81	2.7	75.2%	0.201
136	30	Carlos Delfino	MIL	-0.93	2.5	79.7%	0.034
138	31	Anthony Parker	CLE	-0.95	2.1	76.2%	0.224
142	32	DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	-1.13	1.8	75.0%	0.137
144	33	Jason Richardson	ORL	-1.15	2.3	71.3%	0.085
145	34	Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	-1.16	1.9	73.0%	0.127
147	35	Wesley Johnson	MIN	-1.19	2.1	68.6%	0.143
158	36	Keith Bogans	CHI	-1.59	1.1	63.3%	0.000

Small Forwards

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
2	1	Kevin Durant	OKC	3.22	10.8	88.0%	0.618
3	2	Carmelo Anthony	DEN	2.81	11.0	81.3%	0.880
13	3	Danilo Gallinari	NYK	2.07	8.4	89.4%	0.308
15	4	LeBron James	MIA	2.06	10.4	74.9%	0.981
17	5	Paul Pierce	BOS	1.94	7.8	85.0%	0.786
22	6	Danny Granger	IND	1.74	8.1	85.3%	0.459
46	7	Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	0.62	6.7	76.0%	0.484
48	8	Gerald Wallace	CHA	0.57	7.7	72.6%	0.402
56	9	Rudy Gay	MEM	0.43	5.5	79.8%	0.441
60	10	Grant Hill	PHX	0.36	5.0	81.4%	0.426
62	11	Marvin Williams	ATL	0.34	4.7	85.3%	0.320
65	12	Michael Beasley	MIN	0.29	5.4	72.4%	0.718
79	13	John Salmons	MIL	0.09	4.8	80.5%	0.295
83	14	Luol Deng	CHI	-0.00	5.2	74.4%	0.371
93	15	Andre Iguodala	PHI	-0.23	6.2	67.9%	0.280
98	16	Nicolas Batum	POR	-0.34	3.2	82.7%	0.302
104	17	Richard Jefferson	SAS	-0.49	3.9	74.5%	0.234
105	18	Dorell Wright	GSW	-0.50	3.4	78.6%	0.208
106	19	Mike Dunleavy	IND	-0.50	3.6	79.2%	0.149
108	20	Sam Young	MEM	-0.51	3.4	73.8%	0.367
112	21	Wilson Chandler	NYK	-0.52	3.0	79.6%	0.292
113	22	Shawn Marion	DAL	-0.52	3.6	76.1%	0.211
115	23	Travis Outlaw	NJN	-0.54	3.6	75.2%	0.231
118	24	Francisco Garcia	SAC	-0.58	2.6	85.7%	0.219
125	25	Trevor Ariza	NOH	-0.71	3.8	67.6%	0.312
128	26	Tayshaun Prince	DET	-0.79	3.3	68.6%	0.282
140	27	Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	-1.03	3.1	65.4%	0.200
141	28	Omri Casspi	SAC	-1.08	2.7	66.7%	0.176
143	29	Ron Artest	LAL	-1.14	2.9	65.9%	0.111
148	30	Ryan Gomes	LAC	-1.23	2.0	70.7%	0.075
154	31	Shane Battier	HOU	-1.38	2.0	63.0%	0.084

Power Forwards

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
5	1	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	2.51	8.6	90.0%	0.626
10	2	Kevin Love	MIN	2.13	8.9	84.4%	0.610
16	3	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	2.06	9.5	77.3%	0.997
24	4	Chris Bosh	MIA	1.59	8.2	80.0%	0.662
26	5	Pau Gasol	LAL	1.24	6.8	80.7%	0.741
28	6	Tyler Hansbrough	IND	1.10	7.8	76.6%	0.596
31	7	David West	NOH	0.98	6.7	79.3%	0.624
32	8	LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	0.96	6.9	77.0%	0.668
35	9	Blake Griffin	LAC	0.90	10.5	62.3%	1.106
36	10	Zach Randolph	MEM	0.84	7.0	73.7%	0.764
49	11	Brandon Bass	ORL	0.57	6.0	80.0%	0.388
50	12	Paul Millsap	UTA	0.55	6.0	72.5%	0.798
51	13	Andray Blatche	WAS	0.55	6.2	75.7%	0.571
59	14	Kevin Garnett	BOS	0.39	4.9	85.4%	0.287
66	15	Jeff Green	OKC	0.29	4.7	79.8%	0.521
73	16	J.J. Hickson	CLE	0.14	7.9	65.2%	0.503
75	17	Carlos Boozer	CHI	0.13	6.2	67.6%	0.650
76	18	Antawn Jamison	CLE	0.13	6.0	71.2%	0.472
77	19	David Lee	GSW	0.13	4.5	75.8%	0.596
78	20	Josh Smith	ATL	0.10	6.0	71.2%	0.429
81	21	Amir Johnson	TOR	0.06	3.8	78.3%	0.644
85	22	Elton Brand	PHI	-0.01	4.8	76.4%	0.359
87	23	Luis Scola	HOU	-0.03	5.8	72.6%	0.273
88	24	Ersan Ilyasova	MIL	-0.08	3.5	89.8%	0.212
99	25	Serge Ibaka	OKC	-0.41	4.2	74.0%	0.241
101	26	Luc Mbah a Moute	MIL	-0.46	4.6	69.5%	0.287
102	27	Lamar Odom	LAL	-0.46	4.4	62.6%	0.635
114	28	Josh McRoberts	IND	-0.53	3.4	73.1%	0.348
120	29	Kris Humphries	NJN	-0.63	4.7	64.0%	0.346
131	30	DeJuan Blair	SAS	-0.83	3.7	62.1%	0.389
132	31	Jason Thompson	SAC	-0.86	5.5	58.4%	0.292
135	32	Channing Frye	PHX	-0.88	2.0	81.4%	0.204
146	33	Boris Diaw	CHA	-1.17	2.2	65.5%	0.193
153	34	Kenyon Martin	DEN	-1.32	2.7	54.5%	0.246
156	35	Kurt Thomas	CHI	-1.47	1.3	59.3%	0.141

Centers

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	PSAMS	FTR	FT%	AND1
11	1	Brook Lopez	NJN	2.10	8.1	76.3%	1.034
21	2	Andrea Bargnani	TOR	1.77	6.8	79.8%	0.830
25	3	Nene Hilario	DEN	1.36	7.9	67.2%	1.068
27	4	Dwight Howard	ORL	1.16	15.6	57.4%	0.878
33	5	DeMarcus Cousins	SAC	0.94	8.2	66.0%	0.684
34	6	Tyson Chandler	DAL	0.92	7.0	71.2%	0.534
40	7	Roy Hibbert	IND	0.70	5.6	71.8%	0.609
41	8	Marc Gasol	MEM	0.70	5.4	71.9%	0.639
43	9	Joakim Noah	CHI	0.64	5.9	71.8%	0.472
45	10	Al Jefferson	UTA	0.62	4.5	71.8%	0.802
61	11	Tim Duncan	SAS	0.34	5.9	70.3%	0.263
72	12	Andrew Bynum	LAL	0.15	6.9	63.2%	0.328
74	13	Al Horford	ATL	0.14	3.4	78.0%	0.380
89	14	Kwame Brown	CHA	-0.10	6.7	54.3%	0.706
90	15	Samuel Dalembert	SAC	-0.14	3.6	70.1%	0.320
96	16	Greg Monroe	DET	-0.29	5.3	59.5%	0.343
100	17	Emeka Okafor	NOH	-0.44	5.6	52.3%	0.550
103	18	JaVale McGee	WAS	-0.47	5.1	55.3%	0.394
107	19	Chuck Hayes	HOU	-0.51	3.3	64.2%	0.200
116	20	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	MIA	-0.54	2.0	76.7%	0.139
129	21	Marcus Camby	POR	-0.80	2.3	57.8%	0.219
133	22	Darko Milicic	MIN	-0.86	3.1	52.8%	0.237
137	23	Spencer Hawes	PHI	-0.94	2.5	51.9%	0.215
151	24	DeAndre Jordan	LAC	-1.29	5.3	43.8%	0.179
152	25	Andrew Bogut	MIL	-1.32	4.9	41.5%	0.237
155	26	Andris Biedrins	GSW	-1.42	1.1	30.0%	0.036
159	27	Ben Wallace	DET	-1.63	2.6	33.3%	0.000

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Comments

WTF Curry shot 95.1% from the line last year??

i did not realize this.. that’s insane haha

"It ain't Chinese algebra. If you get stops and you execute on offense, normally that team wins." - Tony Allen
"One thing LeBron James has won that Kobe Bryant never has, and never will: A bronze medal."- Josh Tucker

by steffun4tw on Oct 2, 2011 1:42 PM PDT reply actions

Yup.

He led the league, I believe.

by Dr Jay23 on Oct 2, 2011 2:35 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

ya hes a great foul shooter

Too bad he only averaged like 2 foul shots a game. Still, he nailed 95% of those 2 a game.

by kyzah on Oct 2, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

i knew he's top of the league

i just never realized it was to that extent. but ya, like you said, he needs to get there more often.

by steffun4tw on Oct 2, 2011 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

on espn.com it says 93.4%

by ekpeudoh20 on Oct 3, 2011 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the difference is that they are including AND1 in that number

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"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)

by Evanz on Oct 3, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Kevin Martin exemplifies everything I hate about the NBA

by tafkasam on Oct 3, 2011 9:37 AM PDT reply actions

player hater!

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"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)

by Evanz on Oct 3, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions

Evanz...

Just wanted to say that this series has been great, and I was glad to see your article on Dunks, Layups etc getting some attention in more than a couple basketball starved corners of the internet.

Now I just can’t wait for you to have some new numbers to work with. Unfortunately I’m not feeling to optimistic about our chances of seeing NBA ball anytime soon.

by olympicmike on Oct 3, 2011 4:32 PM PDT reply actions

thanks!

(it got a lot more attention everywhere but here for once…)

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"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)

by Evanz on Oct 3, 2011 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

You are doing a good job evanz. Your articles are better than the things I see on espn.

by macdreboi on Oct 3, 2011 5:14 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

low bar?

;)

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"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)

by Evanz on Oct 3, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions