hot hand fallacy

by timabe on Oct 4, 2011 10:01 AM PDT

Some of the statistically and sabermetrically inclined fans on this site might be interested in a few blog posts I've written on the existence of the hot hand in basketball. I analyzed Anthony Morrow's shooting streaks from a few seasons ago to determine whether or not he exhibited the hot hand (more makes in a row than would be expected under independence).

Check it out if you like this kind of stuff!

timabe.tumblr.com

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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here's a clickable link

timabe.tumblr.com

by timabe on Oct 4, 2011 10:48 AM PDT reply actions

Forget the link! How about a conclusion!?

Graph looks slightly slanted to the right (which I assume is a positive correlation)

But what’s the take-away? Were your results conclusive? Statistically significant?

Pretty graph, it jet doesn’t tell me anything without a little analysis

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Oct 15, 2011 3:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

explanation of the graph

yo duby dubs:

The graph shows the distribution of runs we’d expect under randomness. If Anthony Morrow achieved an amount of runs on the tail ends of the distribution, we’d reject the null hypothesis (which is that he does not have the hot hand).

I put those yellow bars there to indicate the rejection region of the distribution. Anthony Morrow’s actual result is the red bar. As you can see, his actual result falls near the peak of the distribution. That tells us that what he did was basically what we’d expect under the randomness assumption. Had the red bar been in the tail regions, past the yellow bars, we’d say his streakyness was statistically significant. This is all explained in the blog entry.

tim

by timabe on Oct 18, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm definitely interested

will sit down and read carefully when I get a chance.

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by Evanz on Oct 4, 2011 12:35 PM PDT reply actions

Very good

This blog does things my blog is incapable of.
You might be interested in a recent Tango link to a study finding evidence IN FAVOR of the hot hand:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/hot_hand_free_throws/

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Oct 6, 2011 7:50 PM PDT reply actions