Scoring Ratings for 2011 Free Agents

If the lockout ends, there is going to be an extremely abbreviated time period for signing free agents. In this post, I want to use my newly created scoring metric (PSAMS) to see if there are any players we might be interested in. Oh, and if you don't know who Steve Novak is,  you're not alone. This is also the first I've heard of him.

Before you think I'm crazy or high, please rest assured I'm not advocating going after Mr. Novak. I don't think we need another 3-point specialist on this team. And that 7.0 3-pt rating is clearly coming on an extremely small sample size. In fact, I would pretty much ignore any player that had fewer than 1000 or maybe even 1500 possessions. It's simply too small a sample size to make reliable conclusions.

So, who might we be interested in? Obviously, the big names at the top (Nene, Chandler, Gasol, and West) are the main attractions. It's not clear that we will have the cap room to sign any of these guys, unless we amnesty Biedrins. For my money (well, Lacob's money), the best case scenario would be to amnesty Biedrins and some how scrounge together the dough to go after Nene. Chandler and Gasol would obviously also be huge upgrades. If you look further down on the list (#42), you'll see DeAndre Jordan. I think his value depends on how much you see him improving. He's still young. It's a risk with a guy like that. He's one of those guys (maybe like Chandler a few years ago) that you figure if he puts it all together, can be an upper echelon center. But do you want to risk signing him to a big contract only to get, well, another Andris Biedrins down the road? I'm not sure that's the way to go.

We should go after Thaddeus Young (+1.07 PSAMS). He's still got upside at 23 years old. His multi-year RAPM rating last season was +2.1 (+0.8 offense, +1.3 defense). I think Young could fit well in our front court, and could play SF or PF depending on the need. Besides Klay, we really have no good backup for Dorell on this team. Thad would be by far our best inside threat (+3.12 inside rating according to PSAMS). I doubt that Philly lets him walk, though.

Other than those names, not a lot excites me. I actually like another Young, Nick Young, for his offense, but we have a guy in Reggie Williams that provides about the same amount of offense, and unfortunately, about the same amount of defense. Young probably isn't an upgrade and would be a little more expensive. Also, we just drafted Klay Thompson, who probably figures to get a lot of time backing up Monta over the next couple seasons. Does Lacob want to invest in a 3-yr deal for a guy like Williams or Young who might only see limited minutes once Klay establishes himself?

What about Rodney Stuckey? His positive offensive rating according to PSAMS is backed up by his +2.0 offensive RAPM rating. I'm not convinced that we should put that much faith in Lin or Jenkins as Curry's backup. Stuckey might work pretty well in that role. He could also play some SG next to Curry. A Stuckey-Thompson backup duo could be intriguing. One guy can drive (look at Stuckey's 2.18 FT rating!) and the other hits 3's. Stuckey's defense is questionable (-1.1 according to RAPM), but overall, if we could sign him for what Bell is getting paid now, it might turn out to be a big upgrade.

Anyway, enough of my yammering. Here's the list:

2011 PSAMS Ratings

For Type, U=unrestricted, R=restricted free agent.

As always, I'll remind you (SAMMY!) this list does not take into account things like defense, passing, and other stuff that helps teams win the games. It's just about scoring.

 

RANK

NAME

TYPE

TEAM

POS

POSS

TOT

INS

MID

3PT

FT

1

Steve Novak

U

SAS

PF

372

4.21

-2.03

-0.21

7.07

-0.63

2

Nene Hilario

U

DEN

C

4495

3.69

2.94

-0.59

-0.01

1.36

3

Leon Powe

U

MEM

C

263

2.58

0.54

1.33

-0.73

1.43

4

Tyson Chandler

U

DAL

C

3935

2.25

1.97

-0.66

0.03

0.92

5

David West

U

NOH

PF

4485

1.89

-0.06

1.23

-0.26

0.98

6

Marc Gasol

R

MEM

C

4851

1.77

0.72

0.28

0.07

0.70

7

Carl Landry

U

NOH

PF

1094

1.74

0.83

0.51

-0.28

0.68

8

Shelden Williams

U

NYK

C

400

1.65

-0.37

0.46

0.03

1.53

9

Nenad Krstic

U

BOS

C

1037

1.43

1.05

-0.61

0.03

0.95

10

Nick Young

R

WAS

SG

3915

1.34

-0.45

0.67

0.59

0.52

11

Grant Hill

U

PHX

SF

4696

1.23

0.47

0.36

0.04

0.36

12

Rodney Stuckey

U

DET

PG

3990

1.23

0.28

-0.65

-0.58

2.18

13

Marcus Thornton

R

SAC

SG

2060

1.08

0.94

-0.30

-0.03

0.48

14

Thaddeus Young

R

PHI

PF

4003

1.07

3.12

-1.25

-0.29

-0.51

15

Al Thornton

U

GSW

SF

606

0.88

1.88

-1.01

-0.57

0.58

16

Reggie Williams

R

GSW

SG

3171

0.84

0.53

-0.78

1.47

-0.38

17

Craig Smith

U

LAC

PF

1113

0.77

1.60

-0.19

-0.64

-0.00

18

Earl Boykins

U

MIL

PG

1608

0.71

-1.12

1.37

0.47

-0.19

19

Jamal Crawford

U

ATL

SG

4316

0.57

-0.37

0.49

-0.42

0.87

20

Arron Afflalo

R

DEN

SG

4567

0.55

0.07

-0.10

0.86

-0.28

21

Mike Bibby

U

MIA

PG

1094

0.48

-0.70

-1.47

2.65

-1.74

22

J.R. Smith

U

DEN

SG

3932

0.44

-0.48

0.22

0.74

-0.04

23

Marco Belinelli

R

NOH

SG

3637

0.44

-0.78

0.17

1.56

-0.51

24

Alexis Ajinca

U

TOR

C

525

0.38

0.92

-0.04

0.03

-0.53

25

Caron Butler

U

DAL

SF

1657

0.35

-0.82

0.43

0.74

0.00

26

Jose Barea

U

DAL

PG

3130

0.30

0.71

-0.55

0.01

0.13

27

Etan Thomas

U

ATL

C

162

0.29

-0.74

-1.04

0.03

2.04

28

Derrick Brown

R

NYK

PF

175

0.28

0.29

-1.39

2.67

-1.29

29

Aaron Brooks

R

PHX

PG

935

0.23

0.21

0.41

-0.39

0.09

30

Mike Dunleavy

U

IND

SF

3361

0.05

-0.30

-0.29

1.14

-0.50

31

Patrick Mills

R

POR

PG

1464

0.02

-0.38

0.13

0.27

-1.03

32

Peja Stojakovic

U

DAL

SF

990

-0.02

-0.73

0.02

1.72

-1.03

33

Hamed Haddadi

R

MEM

C

327

-0.09

3.25

-3.19

-0.27

0.13

34

Chris Wilcox

U

DET

PF

1856

-0.21

2.39

-1.27

-0.25

-1.08

35

Jeff Green

R

BOS

PF

1108

-0.32

-0.55

0.46

-0.46

0.23

36

Andrei Kirilenko

U

UTA

SF

3718

-0.34

0.22

-1.02

-0.16

0.62

37

Tayshaun Prince

U

DET

SF

4617

-0.45

1.12

-0.45

-0.32

-0.79

38

Dante Cunningham

R

CHA

PF

946

-0.45

-0.32

1.83

-0.83

-1.14

39

Francisco Elson

U

UTA

C

1101

-0.47

-0.84

0.59

0.03

-0.25

40

Samuel Dalembert

U

SAC

C

3751

-0.51

-0.51

0.15

-0.02

-0.14

41

Daequan Cook

R

OKC

SG

1087

-0.54

-1.12

-0.81

2.43

-1.04

42

DeAndre Jordan

R

LAC

C

3910

-0.60

2.22

-1.54

0.01

-1.29

43

Willie Green

U

NOH

SG

3074

-0.67

-0.30

0.65

-0.38

-0.64

44

Shannon Brown

U

LAL

SG

2929

-0.71

0.60

-1.01

-0.20

-0.11

45

Sasha Vujacic

U

NJN

SG

2965

-0.82

-1.09

0.46

0.30

-0.50

46

Chris Douglas-Roberts

U

MIL

SG

1660

-0.87

-0.68

-0.04

-0.67

0.51

47

Tony Battie

U

PHI

C

712

-0.89

0.02

-0.29

0.45

-1.07

48

Kwame Brown

U

CHA

C

3116

-0.91

0.34

-1.18

0.03

-0.10

49

Kris Humphries

U

NJN

PF

3753

-1.02

0.86

-1.04

-0.22

-0.63

50

Delonte West

U

BOS

SG

816

-1.02

-0.87

1.02

-0.24

-0.93

51

Wilson Chandler

R

DEN

SF

1268

-1.03

-0.48

0.03

-0.17

-0.41

52

James Jones

U

MIA

SF

2915

-1.14

-1.44

-1.37

2.41

-0.74

53

Maurice Evans

U

WAS

SF

1303

-1.15

-0.50

-0.17

0.21

-0.68

54

Eugene Jeter

U

SAC

PG

1739

-1.29

-0.41

0.04

-0.91

-0.94

55

Josh McRoberts

U

IND

PF

3162

-1.29

0.50

-1.35

0.09

-0.53

56

Spencer Hawes

R

PHI

C

3256

-1.34

0.17

-0.30

-0.28

-0.94

57

Darnell Jackson

U

SAC

PF

986

-1.35

-0.07

0.06

-0.39

-0.94

58

Darius Songaila

U

PHI

C

139

-1.37

0.77

-0.98

0.03

-1.19

59

Jason Richardson

U

ORL

SG

3530

-1.39

0.11

-1.10

0.75

-1.15

60

Chuck Hayes

U

HOU

C

4002

-1.39

0.07

-0.93

-0.02

-0.51

61

Tracy McGrady

U

DET

SG

3046

-1.42

0.27

-0.43

-0.54

-0.72

62

Damien Wilkins

U

ATL

SF

1263

-1.48

-0.79

0.68

-0.72

-0.64

63

Anthony Tolliver

U

MIN

PF

2698

-1.50

-1.09

-1.24

0.77

0.06

64

Sonny Weems

R

TOR

SG

2776

-1.65

-0.03

0.02

-0.97

-0.68

65

Acie Law

U

GSW

PG

1218

-1.72

0.78

-0.61

-1.27

-0.64

66

Jason Collins

U

ATL

C

1095

-1.73

-0.93

-0.61

0.21

-0.40

67

Larry Owens

R

WAS

SF

215

-1.73

-0.97

-0.73

1.92

-1.95

68

Aaron Gray

U

NOH

C

958

-1.76

0.73

-1.39

0.03

-1.13

69

Chris Quinn

U

SAS

PG

542

-1.82

-0.69

-0.11

-1.02

-2.05

70

Glen Davis

U

BOS

PF

4221

-1.84

-0.53

-0.94

-0.40

0.04

71

Solomon Jones

U

IND

C

1042

-1.88

-0.89

-0.90

-0.06

-0.02

72

Gary Forbes

R

DEN

SF

1616

-1.93

0.32

-1.25

-0.47

-0.54

73

Sasha Pavlovic

U

BOS

SG

280

-1.98

0.31

-2.09

1.18

-1.38

74

Anthony Parker

U

CLE

SG

4022

-1.99

-0.82

-0.39

0.16

-0.95

75

Jason Smith

U

NOH

PF

2044

-2.10

-1.38

-0.05

-0.29

-0.38

76

Ben Uzoh

U

NJN

PG

803

-2.17

0.15

-2.17

-0.16

-1.12

77

Troy Murphy

U

BOS

C

331

-2.22

0.74

-1.21

-2.08

0.34

78

T.J. Ford

U

IND

PG

1500

-2.28

-1.00

-0.07

-1.21

-1.15

79

Melvin Ely

U

DEN

C

717

-2.30

0.30

-1.86

0.03

-0.78

80

Josh Powell

U

ATL

PF

1243

-2.31

-1.84

0.34

-0.27

-0.54

81

Hamady N'Diaye

R

WAS

C

140

-2.34

-0.68

-2.01

0.03

0.31

82

Kenyon Martin

U

DEN

PF

2442

-2.37

0.91

-1.64

-0.31

-1.32

83

Von Wafer

U

BOS

SF

1044

-2.40

0.11

-0.56

-1.65

-0.30

84

Anthony Carter

U

NYK

SG

622

-2.44

0.98

-0.91

-1.25

-1.26

85

Antonio Daniels

U

PHI

PG

63

-2.47

-0.88

1.86

-3.45

-0.42

86

Brian Cardinal

U

DAL

PF

1154

-2.48

-2.28

-2.27

3.10

-1.02

87

Carlos Arroyo

U

BOS

PG

348

-2.53

-0.88

-2.52

0.87

-0.57

88

Earl Clark

U

ORL

SF

734

-2.53

1.04

-1.71

-1.09

-0.78

89

Mario Chalmers

R

MIA

PG

2984

-2.55

-0.54

-1.09

0.32

-1.25

90

Erick Dampier

U

MIA

C

1553

-2.58

-0.02

-1.55

-0.03

-0.97

91

Shawne Williams

U

NYK

PF

1375

-2.61

-1.87

-1.81

2.21

-1.14

92

Kurt Thomas

U

CHI

PF

2127

-2.62

-1.60

0.63

-0.19

-1.47

93

Juwan Howard

U

MIA

PF

1102

-2.64

-2.10

0.24

-0.19

-0.59

94

DaJuan Summers

U

DET

SF

376

-2.66

-0.90

-1.05

1.19

-1.91

95

Othyus Jeffers

R

WAS

SG

598

-2.67

0.74

-2.13

-0.78

-0.50

96

DJ Mbenga

U

NOH

C

604

-2.71

-0.87

-1.65

0.03

-0.21

97

DeShawn Stevenson

U

DAL

SG

2188

-2.73

-1.26

-1.24

0.90

-1.13

98

Jamaal Magloire

U

MIA

C

291

-2.74

-0.34

-1.31

0.03

-1.13

99

Michael Redd

U

MIL

SG

245

-2.82

1.74

-1.00

-2.65

-0.91

100

Vladimir Radmanovic

U

GSW

PF

2269

-2.84

-1.09

-2.09

1.44

-1.10

101

Jeff Foster

U

IND

C

1805

-2.95

-0.98

-0.85

-0.13

-0.98

102

Shawne Williams

U

NYK

PF

1189

-3.02

-1.00

-1.50

0.31

-0.83

103

Julian Wright

U

TOR

SF

1460

-3.13

0.64

-1.52

-0.68

-1.57

104

Luc Mbah a Moute

R

MIL

PF

3838

-3.17

-1.09

-1.25

-0.37

-0.46

105

Jamario Moon

U

LAC

SF

551

-3.22

0.02

-2.35

0.50

-1.39

106

Joey Dorsey

U

TOR

C

988

-3.22

-0.55

-1.50

0.03

-1.21

107

Yi Jianlian

U

WAS

PF

2014

-3.33

-1.22

-0.91

-0.39

-0.81

108

Earl Watson

U

UTA

PG

2869

-3.34

-0.35

-1.11

-0.38

-1.50

109

Ronnie Price

U

UTA

PG

1281

-3.41

-0.16

-2.34

-0.90

-1.33

110

Dan Gadzuric

U

NJN

C

304

-3.45

0.61

-2.60

0.03

-1.49

111

Mustafa Shakur

U

WAS

PG

298

-3.65

-0.53

-0.83

-2.29

-1.64

112

Malik Allen

U

ORL

C

322

-3.72

-0.45

-2.06

0.03

-1.25

113

Shane Battier

U

MEM

SF

1055

-3.76

-0.86

-1.47

-0.40

-1.03

114

Dominic McGuire

U

CHA

SF

1407

-3.76

-0.92

-1.40

-0.55

-0.89

115

Roger Mason

U

NYK

SG

626

-4.05

-1.60

-1.46

0.03

-1.02

116

Brandan Wright

U

NJN

PF

343

-4.26

-1.11

-3.07

-0.19

0.11

117

Mario West

U

NJN

SF

217

-4.29

-0.97

-0.98

-0.87

-1.49

118

Kyrylo Fesenko

U

UTA

C

857

-4.36

0.15

-2.71

-0.08

-1.72

119

Josh Howard

U

WAS

SF

794

-4.67

-1.56

-1.07

-1.29

-0.76

120

Reggie Evans

U

TOR

PF

1510

-5.97

-2.07

-2.35

-0.32

-1.22

121

Garrett Temple

U

CHA

PG

227

-6.28

-1.75

-2.04

-2.48

-0.87

122

Hilton Armstrong

U

ATL

PF

144

-6.38

-2.02

-0.51

-0.19

-3.67

123

Joel Przybilla

U

CHA

C

131

-6.46

-2.89

-1.65

0.03

-1.95

124

Jared Jeffries

U

NYK

PF

891

-6.46

-1.90

-2.55

-0.19

-1.82

125

Jason Kapono

U

PHI

SF

231

-7.02

-1.44

-1.90

-2.57

-1.12

126

Joe Smith

U

LAL

C

81

-7.76

-3.85

-3.97

0.03

0.03

 

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