Free Agency Frenzy, or, That Time When Bad Teams Get Worse
by ivanbe on Dec 10, 2011 12:54 AM PST
Email
PrintYeah, I get it: a bunch of centers are on the market, we need some "beef," we have room under the cap and the option to dump a past mistake with the amnesty provision. So, let's write a blank check, hang it 7 feet in the air at Oracle, and the next guy who actually wants to play here and can grab it with his teeth can fill in the blanks and empty the coffers. Right?
There is a thin line between being bold and being foolish, and short-sighted, and impatient.
I don't know how much DeAndre Jordan is worth, but I'm pretty sure $10 mil a year for four years is too much. Even if it's fair, though: is that really a bold move? Is it one that shows foresight and vision? Or is it an act of desperation, a team throwing money at a problem because it has money, has admitted the problem publicly, and is now more afraid of failing to act than it is of failing to make a wise decision?
Fans, and probably owners, and definitely GMs, start to hyperventilate when they offer a mint to a guy and he chooses to take the mint that someone else offered him. Panic sets in. You start looking around for alternatives. And you start justifying your future actions with statements like, "well everyone else is overpaying," and "we can't come away with nothing," and "I'm just tired of watching these other schmucks."
And that is when bad teams get worse. When they make moves to make moves, because they feel like they have to. The Warriors are kings in this sick game: the Jamison contract, the Jackson extension, the Maggette signing — god, that seems like just the tip of the iceberg. No, free agency is a dangerous arena for losers to step into. If you're a big market/in-demand destination, then sure, you'll probably do well (though $58M/4 for Chandler seems potentially crippling to me). And if you're some other team, that has tried-and-true good management and that oh yeah is also winning a ton of games, then you'll probably score some wins in free agency as well. Otherwise, you're probably buying high, selling low, and perpetually sucking.
I don't know if DeAndre Jordan is a long-term solution for this team — but my not knowing isn't what bothers me. What bothers me is that I don't think Lacob and Reilly know, or — scarier still — that they know he's NOT the right solution, but that they may pull the trigger anyway, for lack of anything better to shoot at.
I'm just ready for some goddamn vision.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
47 comments
|
11 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good post.
or — scarier still — that they know he’s NOT the right solution, but that they may pull the trigger anyway, for lack of anything better to shoot at.
Yep.
I think Jordan is a good player
Will get you blocks and double doubles but won’t change your team , he’s a step in the right direction mentality wise. More physical and defensive . He could have some good trade value too if he improves his IQ since he’ll only be 27 by the end of the proposed deal. And if Beans gets back to form we then have a solid center duo.
But lets be honest, bad teams usually become good teams through the draft. We don’t draft well. It’s that simple, we either go with the super safe pick like Klay over Leonard or just don’t get a good draft spot at all. This year we may not even have a pick, I’m in favor of dealing for a top 5 pick without losing Curry this season because that really is the only way to get out of mediocrity . We won’t bring in stars so we must draft them. We could trade for Lamb or Drummond and potentially have a future star. Or we can stick to our current plan and go around in circles
If we don’t address ourselves with the draft we have no choice but to overpay for guys like Jordan who are solid players with much greater potential. And while they may not be super now we have to hope they become super for us
RIP Al Davis
would be nice to trade for a top 5 pick..
it isn’t going to happen….from the Clip/Nola trade, CP3 is being traded essentially for a 2012 first round lottery pick. Kaman is an expiring contract….Aminu is a complete wildcard lotto ticket….Bledsoe see Aminu…..A 1st round 2012 lotter pick gets you the best pointguard in the league…..amazing….we used ours on a pointguard that is probably playing in the Turkish league right now.
by JimBarnett2KevinGarnett on Dec 12, 2011 5:08 AM PST up reply actions
So, let’s write a blank check, hang it 7 feet in the air at Oracle, and the next guy who actually wants to play here and can grab it with his teeth can fill in the blanks and empty the coffers.
I’m going to steal this from you. Just wanted to let you know I will take the credit for myself. Too brilliant.
_______________________________________________________________
The City: Is A Grown Man NBA Blog
Follow @thecity2
Like thecity2 on Facebook
"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)
by Evanz on Dec 10, 2011 5:05 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Dang
You’re on a worse sleep schedule than I am.
Or better, can’t decide.
I live in Atlanta
_______________________________________________________________
The City: Is A Grown Man NBA Blog
Follow @thecity2
Like thecity2 on Facebook
"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)
+1
I was thinking about sig-lining that exact quote.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Dec 10, 2011 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
The dumb thing about Deandre is
you have to factor in Biedrins’ contract as well, since he will get amnestied. Also, DeAndre Jordan is who he is – a defensive center who doesn’t create offense.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
pretty sure we can amnesty Bell for DeAndre...we needed to amnesty Biedrins for Chandler/Nene
You know I spit technique to the freshest freak
Gimme a call you will see results in just a week
With the soul of a LOST HAWK
Is there a heaven for a Rap Cat, let's talk
by LostHawkGSW on Dec 10, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
First off, great post.
The Warriors are kings in this sick game: the Jamison contract, the Jackson extension, the Maggette signing — god, that seems like just the tip of the iceberg.
It’s not just free agency signing, it’s the immediate buyer’s remorse that results in knee-jerk transactions. These dealings typically end up in strengthening another team and weakening ours, or handcuffing our ability to make an obvious decision.
@DoctorKajita
Basically agree, though one thing I would say in Jordan’s defense is that, barring injury or major regression, a super-athletic 23-25year-old seven-footer who rebounds, blocks shots, scores efficiently and is generally perceived as a nice guy and solid citizen is probably going to have decent value on the open market. Even at $10M, I’d imagine.
In the absence of vision, I’m pretty OK with adding pieces who are likely to have positive trade value over the full course of their contracts. I don’t think that was really the case with the signings of Maggs, Jax, or Lee, for example.
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Dec 10, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This...
… I don’t view Jordan as much of a risk. He’ll be easy to move and get good value for down the line if needed.
I’m still rooting for Beans, but it wouldn’t hurt to have some of Jordan’s beastliness on our frontline for 25 minutes a game.
by warriorsablaze on Dec 10, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed Warriorsablaze.
Jordan will be 27 when contract is up and will be looked at as an asset by other teams at that point. Do the deal.
"That was very funny about the old man basketball skills. One is lucky to escape injury when playing against those crafty, crusty sumbitches. And it’s just demoralizing when they demonstrate yet again how to use the backboard from range." - Charlie Custer
by SmittytheCutman on Dec 10, 2011 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
Sleepy, agreed on all fronts. Was more or less commenting on general history. My previous posts have advocated a Jordan/Beans tandem if tran be financially achieved.
@DoctorKajita
by Doctor Kajita on Dec 10, 2011 11:15 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
a super-athletic 23-25year-old seven-footer who rebounds, blocks shots, scores efficiently and is generally perceived as a nice guy and solid citizen is probably going to have decent value on the open market
Sounds like something that could have been written about Biedrins two years ago.
I think adding pieces with trade value is an important part of any long term planning. I just think there are smarter ways to do it than by flexing in free agency, and there are also better ways to spend your cap space (e.g. Dallas trying to flip their exception for Howard). You make a good point, though: his Jordan’s value is much more likely to sustain or increase when compared to those other guys mentioned.
Formerly ffgolden.
Sounds like something that could have been written about Biedrins two years ago.
yep
_______________________________________________________________
The City: Is A Grown Man NBA Blog
Follow @thecity2
Like thecity2 on Facebook
"Also, Evanz’ posts are easiest to hide while working. The chats and graphs can look like actual work related data to the lazy walker-by’s eye" (tafkasam)
Injuries
If not for injuries, I don’t think he would have went through that epic of a downfall. If not for injuries, there would be teams looking to acquire him and he could have been another piece we’d be dangling on trade talks.
I maintain that Biedrins was a solid player back in the day only because of the ways in which Jack and Baron got him involved. They essentially created all his offense for him, which in turn got him into the flow of the game and involved on D and the boards. Watching him the last two seasons has been watching a guy who just isn’t involved at all. The guy possesses no internal starter. He’s an outboard motor.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
I agree
The OP made some good and very true points with some classic quotes, but Jordan wouldn’t be the same cap killer as Corey Maggette. Like you said, if things don’t work out he should be fairly easy to move. I just like the fact they are thinking about using the cap space on a big man with rebounding and defensive capabilities rather than volume scorers. I think the Clips will likely match the offer, but it is worth taking a shot at him for $10 mil/yr.
Should they keep Biedrins? NO. I watched this deandre jordan feller and he’s young, black, big, and not afraid to dunk the ball and/or get fouled.
you’re probably right though, it’s a desperation move, but no one wants to play in Oakland so wtf are we gonna do….
waiving Lin showed some vision, that dude was fucking terrible.
"I'll have to look at the tape" - mike singletary
he’s young, black, big, and not afraid to dunk the ball and/or get fouled.
In fairness, Biedrins is at least two of those things… ;-P
There will be no extra point!
by Sleepy Freud on Dec 10, 2011 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Great post, but I don't think we are getting Jordan for 4 years /$40 million
I think other teams will bid up Jordan and make the Clippers match it. My thought is we should focus on the undervalued like the Kings did Hayes 4 for $20 million. Josh McRoberts, Kyrylo Fesenko, Delonte West, etc. The winners of the free agency are the ones who are smart enough to not fall into any mistakes. Good underpaid role players are always an asset. We are not getting a star unless through a trade this year.
Ultimately, given what these guys are getting paid ...
… you either take a chance and overpay for someone and hope it doesn’t bite you in the ass …
… or you commit to being a bad team until you get lucky in the draft.
DeAndre Jordan, 4 years at $10m per is a risk. Is he a bad risk? QUite frankly, I think Deandre Jordan at 4 years, $7m is a steal. Do I think the extra $3m a year makes it a bad deal?
No.
The problem is this:
You can live with overpaying a payer a two, especially if they’re young, likely to be tradeable, athletic and big.
The problem is when you end up overpaying everyone. eg, Monta is overpaid by $4m, Lee by one or two this year (escalating to 5-6 by the end of his deal, at least), etc. Before long you’ve overpaying by enough money to stop you from being able to make the moves you want to make.
DJ is one of those players where a lot depends on what happens with his development. If he improves for another year or two, he’s a steal at $10m.
If he doesn’t … not so much.
We are making a play here guys
By understanding how much the clippers value Jordan, and by how they see him with Griffen. The Clippers made it a point to keep Jordan for the future. While the Dubs need a center and Biens has been pretty disgusting lately, he is still capable of 7/7 with fair to above average defense. What we are doing is showing the Clippers that we think Jordan is that last piece to our puzzle. 4 years and 43 million, but we know it is a bluff…a front and it’s a front and a figure the Clippers will have to call. So what did we do? We kept our low valued high priced center who can fill in, we made a “grab” at a rivals piece and we are forcing the Clippers to over pay a player because he is flashy. I think the front office knows exactly what it is doing.
…and wasted the amnesty clause on Bell just to force the Clippers to pay an extra $2-3 mil per year on Jordan.
And..
You wanted to use it on Biens? Which makes no sense. We cut him and then have no center at all? Either he continue to sucks and turns into a nice expiring contract, or he turns into a productive center that helps win or creates trade value, saving money and returning an asset. Just cutting him saves us $5 million this season and from what it seems, there isn’t a player (center) that would be a solid, attainable, and worth the $15 million in salary he would merit in forfeiting AB.
Regarding amnestying Biedrins
It doesn’t have to be this year. We could have saved it for later years. When a viable replacement is either coming or has emerged.
Regarding your bluff theory
That’s definitely not the case. Otherwise, the front office DOES NOT know what they are doing.
by lightz0ut on Dec 12, 2011 1:53 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Sure.
But the team made a bet that they aren’t going to want to amnesty Biedrins (who they have told us has trade value even playing like he did last year). That leaves the only realistic amnesty prospect as Lee.
Which I get, given the size of the last year of that contract. But I think that amnestying Lee is a move the team would never make if he performs at about the level he’s expected to perform.
And if you believe Beans has some value, and you know Monta has some value, and you’re not going to amnesty Lee …
Then there’s no one left to amnesty. Other than those three, the only players with contracts extending past next season are Curry and Udoh – and in both cases you’re talking about team options/qualifying offers for RFA status.
They’re taking a large risk by putting hope in players that haven’t earned it yet, and can’t make us a contender. We could have sat on the exception, watched Beidrins suck for a year or Lee get dunked on nightly, then used it then to make us a free agency threat the next few years.
Instead we’re stuck hoping this team plus a 10 mil player gets us to the promised land, which it will not.
go rowand
by lincypoo i wuv u on Dec 12, 2011 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
I read some where there was a deadline to use the amnesty, and is it written anywhere that it is possible to use it whenever you want in any season down the road?
If we don’t use it on AB this season then whats left on his contract is 2 years and 18 millions, which is manageable. I remember there was interest in AB while he was playing badly, so if can get stay on the court and be semi productive im sure his talent and body would be needed by someone.
If you think we should save it for David Lee, I think youre crazy. Lee is owed a bunch of money and using it on him might get his contract of the books, but on the flip side the owners still have to pay him that money and he still is a very productive player. his contract is fine untill the last 2 years, and holding the amnesty (even if possible) for 2-3 or even 4 years is potentially a silly move.
Were not using it on Ellis, Amundson, Wright or anyone on a rookie deal so that doesnt make sense.
Bell, could have been bought out but I guess this is something everyone would have to agree on and even then im not exactly sure how this would play into the Cap situation.
Bell was worthless as a player with character issues, the only other option (if the amnesty is available forever until used) was to hang onto the amnesty and hopeful Sign and trade Reggie Williams for a future pick or turn him into something we can use but then again that requires bringing in a questionable player.
There is a deadline, but you can use it any off-season. It doesn’t go away forever if you don’t use it by Friday. It goes away forever when you waste it on a $4 M expiring contract.
I heard he doesn't like music.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 13, 2011 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
hahaha, I see what you did there
It goes away forever when you waste it on a $4 M expiring contract.
"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep
by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 13, 2011 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
If they couldn’t sign a center and were going to go with Biedrins, I’d rather they just not use the amnesty clause at all and save it for next year. Then they could still use it on Biedrins if his play continues to disappoint, or use it on someone else if they so choose. Using it on Bell they way they did is indefensible. They ruined free agency for this year and next year.
It’s not like they could just hold onto it as a get out of jail free card to correct an as-yet unmade poor decision. They clearly didn’t want to use it on Ellis, Biedrins, or Lee. So they cashed it rather than letting it go to waste.
I personally would have saved it to get out of the last two years of Lee, but I’m not the owner.
Sittin in my scraper watchin Oakland goin wild, ta-dow!
Was it not obvious that they were going to use it on Biedrins?
The only reason he’s on this roster is because Chandler and Nene didn’t wan to sign, and the Warriors need someone to play center.
So rather than waste the amnesty on Bell so they could try and sign Jordan (when everyone else seemed to know the Clips would match anyway), they could’ve easily held on and amnestied Beans next year and make a run at another FA.
What I’m getting at is this- if they were fully willing to amnesty Biedrins this year to sign another center, why didn’t they just wait until next year to do the same instead of using it to help Deandre Jordan make more money?
or maybe the warriors made the clippers sign jordan because blake griffren
will be a free agent also. that will cost alot of $$$$ to keep him. nuggets paid nene 67million for 5 years~wow
by sports with steve on Dec 13, 2011 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!"
Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)
NBA Playoffs Content Module
Related FanPosts on Golden State Of Mind
Related FanShots on Golden State Of Mind
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Most Commented
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- C-a-C: This is probably as close to LeBron James working with John Waters as we’ll ever get
- Dwyane Wade’s hot pink pants: The kind of thing you can get away with when you drop 41
- Lamar Odom to New York? Dwight Howard on the move? For now, it’s all talk
- David West hilariously denies each and every one of his young fans a high-five (VIDEO)
- Behind the Box Score, where the Miami Heat are moving on to the conference finals
