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My Response to Monta Hate




People have relentlessly bashing Monta in recent threads, so I thought I would defend him. Some people have suggested that Reggie Williams is better. That is just ridiculous. Here are Monta's rankings among SG's from last season according to ESPN.com.

PPG: 3rd

FG%: 7th

3FG%: 32nd

3PM: 8th

FT%: 21st

RPG: 14th

APG: 2nd

Assist/To: 12th

Steals PG: 1st

These stats suggest that Monta, while by no means a perfect player, is a very valuable asset to the Warriors, and any team. He is definitely a top 10 shooting guard, and I challenge commenters who disagree to provide a list of 10 better shooting guards.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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better delete this post

it’s pointless

according to Monta himself he is top3 in league ;)

Even if you do succeed most people wouldn't notice anyway.
-Johnny Bravo is my role model -i m pretty

by Lat We N Trash on Dec 19, 2011 9:43 AM PST reply actions  

playing a lot of minutes is in and of itself an asset

Being healthy and able to be on the floor is vitally important.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 11:12 AM PST up reply actions  

that's simply not true.

It’s not his decision to play those minutes. The fact that he can is an asset.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

this is not the question though, the guy who is only playing 30 minutes probably is not better than the guy who is asked to play 40 mintues.

The guy who can only play 20-30 minutes is only playing that for a reason, the team has much better options. Also positive effect can’t be taken in a vacuum, if you have a good player coming off the bench it means the rest of your team is more talented, which affects the defense considerably.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions  

i disagree

manu is a much better player than monta

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

again you can't just analyze rate stats in a vacuum.

Monta’s teammates suck. His coaches ask him to do what he does. I don’t get this line of argument. If we had Tim Duncan on our team our offense would look completely different.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

if you want to say monta sucks as well, that's fine

Just saying that this team was nowhere near playoff contention at all, and you take monta off of the team, that is still pretty much the case. I generally consider out of the playoff race = suck since over half the teams make the playoffs. I do accept that you can differ with the definition of suck.

Anyways, I am interested to see what, if anything, will change with coach Jackson. You could be proven very right.

It’s just that Monta was a lot better when he wasn’t the #1 offensive option here so it’s easy to imagine him getting back to that if he had some help. I do think part of that is not being asked to play 40+ minutes a night.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta's teammates don't suck.

For example, they were better offensively without him on the floor.

Furthermore, we were the 12th team in the league in offense. That is absolutely “not suck.”

The “if we had Tim Duncan” argument amounts to this: You seem to be suggesting that Monta’s bad habits (long jump shots early in the shot clock, driving into a set defense) would disappear if we had better offensive players.

But we ALREADY had better offensive players. We had Curry and Lee, who, yes, are better offensively than Monta. The fact that Monta didn’t curtail those habits suggests that there’s a little wishful thinking in your claim that he would do so if we had other better players.

Monta has been clear that he thinks there are very few better players than him in the league. Duncan wasn’t on the list. So Monta is going to defer to Duncan why?

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't even..

What metric are you using to say we were 12th in the league in offense? And.. where on that list do you think we would be without Monta? I for one think that he is a reason we even got as high as #12.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 6:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Offensive efficiency: it’s a measure of points per possession, given in the form of points per 100 possessions. It’s an actual good metric because it accounts for pace.
Statistically, Monta negatively affected the offense when he was on the court. If he was the reason our offense was so slightly above average, then it would show up in the stats.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

It depends on your depth, and if you have Keith Smart or Nellie as your head coach.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on Dec 19, 2011 11:49 AM PST up reply actions  

i find it curious

that most of the people that argue that monta’s efficiency is low because he gets tired at the ends of games from playing too many minutes, are the same people that argue that monta is clutch because his stats and efficiency (supposedly) increase in the last 5 minutes of games. sounds like a contradiction to me. i dont think it’s the minutes that kill his efficiency, i think it’s his shot selection. playing him less does not necessarily affect that.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 3:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I dont think he is a great clutch shooter despite his nailing a couple here and there. But , I do think that he would be more effective near the end of games if his total game mins are between 20-30 mins per game. Thats the amount of minutes I would love to have him out there for.
I agree its kinda an oxymoron there as u described and definately think he should alter alot about his game, defensive gambling (losing position) and shot selection. He seems way more effective if he can do what he did in that last preseason game. He has those once in a while , but should focus on doing that every night really.

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 20, 2011 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

i agree

i wasn’t trying to single you out or anything, just wanted to point out that it’s likely that changing the way he plays would affect his impact a lot more than just reducing his minutes.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

yes, true

and to further that tho, even a reduced role at a more efficient rate would be the ideal. If he comes out with a changed game, doesnt gamble defensively and stays with his man, and alters his shot selection offensively and passes a bit more he could be a guy who can get some real trade value soon. I would prefer him to stay here. He has made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs b4 and if we can just get a couple more pieces I can see him playing a role on a championship squad

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 20, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

to be fair

he was pretty terrible in the playoffs lol

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

lol (:

heres hopin for a new and improved M.E.

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 20, 2011 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

it does increase

there are stats for that too. But of course nobody will show them because that would mean that Monta has some sort of impact on the court.

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

so if monta plays better and shoots more efficiently in the last 5 minutes of the game

how would his efficiency go up if he played, say, 35 minutes instead of 40? you’re kind of making my point. it’s not the last 5 minutes where his efficiency takes a nose dive.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I'll let the stat geeks tear this to pieces.

Here is what I have to say: first of all, you’re looking at those stats in isolation and not considering Monta (or any player for that matter) in the context of the team and what his abilities provide in terms of winning.

But to play along with your game, here is your list of 10:
Wade, Kobe, Manu, Afflalo, Gordon, Allen, Joe Johnson, Iguodala. It gets debatable after that, but one could probably make an argument for Kevin Martin. Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Jason Terry, and (just for fun) Steph Curry.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 10:43 AM PST reply actions  

I take issue

with Afflalo or Iguodala (though he is a SF)…Evans is definitely better, but that’s not a dis on Monta

by salary_cap on Dec 19, 2011 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

iguodala is an elite perimeter defender

monta is like those chairs you see guys practicing against in the gym

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

extreme hatred

lends itself to hyperbole, as you just demonstrated

by salary_cap on Dec 19, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

i don't hate monta at all

i just dont think hes a good basketball player

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

i should say

i think he hurts our team more than he helps. he is certainly a very talented player

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

you mean you think

he’s “overrated” right? Saying he is not good is not sane. Overpaid, maybe. Incomplete players, sure. But “not good”. Umm, no, by any standard

by salary_cap on Dec 19, 2011 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

That depends on how you define not good. For example, if you consider he is the worst defender in the league at his position and doesn’t score efficiently and define not good as, “Not helpful for getting wins,” then Monta is definitely not good.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 19, 2011 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Let’s say he’s bottom 3 at his position. There’s this dude Kevin Martin who has as much of a claim on that as Monta and there has to be someone else.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Martin may be as bad defensively as Monta.

I’m open to the argument. +/- vastly prefers Martin’s last year as a defender to Monta’s. Opponent eFG against suggests that Martin is probably better.

I think you can make reasonable arguments to explain away those numbers, but that’s the position you find yourself in to argue that: you have to find reasons to explain why Martin’s numbers aren’t as bad as Monta’s, so it’s sort of an uphill argument.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 10:56 PM PST up reply actions  

exactly this
you have to find reasons to explain why Martin’s numbers aren’t as bad as Monta’s, so it’s sort of an uphill argument.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Again

who was backing up Martin and who was backing up Monta? Martin had better big men behind him to help him out if his guy got by him.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:18 AM PST up reply actions  

That could explain the efg difference -

- but it doesn’t explain the +/- difference.

That you keep bringing up that argument makes me wonder if you understand what +/- is and how it works.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Iggy and Afflalo I thought were SFs
James Harden, really? What a joke. He’s lucky he has KD and Westbrook to absorb the defense.
Tyreke Evans is a PG.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

he is.

He played PG the entire time in the warriors pre-season game.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

that Evans

plays both speaks to his versatility

by salary_cap on Dec 19, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

It might speak more to his coach’s poor decision-making.

Formerly ffgolden.

by ivanbe on Dec 19, 2011 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

try and claim players are different positions all you want

To me, it’s kind of irrelevant. The question is this- regardless of what position the player is played at by his head coach, is he a better SG than Monta?

In the case of Igudala, he may play minutes at SF, but he’s still a better SG than Monta. Same with the other players you named.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

It is relevant to the basis of the post
I challenge commenters who disagree to provide a list of 10 better shooting guards.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

based on the initial poster's ranking of monta having the 2nd most assists per game among SGs

one can deduce that he counted iguodala as a shooting guard. therefore, your argument that iguodala is not a shooting guard is the actual irrelevant comment

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions  

then who is the shooting guard who averages more assists than monta

just so you don’t have to look it up, i can tell you that there isn’t one. if the initial poster considers iguodala a shooting guard, and the initial poster asks which shooting guards are better, why are we not allowed to name iguodala, who he considers a shooting guard.

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Iggy was 1st in assists among SG's by ESPN.com, which therefore considers him an SG.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

did you read my post?

Iguodala is a SG (or can be a SG) regardless of whether he gets minutes at other positions, and regardless of whether you consider SF to be his primary position.

Or are you really arguing that every single player in the league should be limited to playing one and only one position?

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

when evaluating the top 10 at each position I am advocating that.

There’s no other sensible way to do it as one person cannot play two positions at the same time.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

How about this then...

Conventional wisdom says that a player plays any position they can guard. In that case, Monta has no position and is not eligible for any rankings list.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The problem is that there's no real difference between what a 2 does and what a 3 does.

Because 3s tend to be bigger, then sometimes play a little closer to the basket.

The biggest difference between what most threes do and what most twos do is that most threes guard the bigger opposing wing.

The “guard” “forward” “center” breakdown of positions is simply not very meaningful. It’s usually makes more sense to talk about “primary ball handlers” “wings” and “bigs.” Yes, some 2-guards are too small to be any use defending 3s (Monta is a good example). Some 3s (Kirilenko comes to mind) simply struggle too much defensively against a quicker player. But lots of 2s and 3s switch around depending on matchups – and Igoudala is a great example of that.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

The standard argument against these guys is that they wouldn’t be effective doing what Monta does, but since Monta isn’t effective (in terms of helping the team win) doing what Monta does, the fact that they couldn’t do it either isn’t a mark in his favor.

this is an important point that people don’t seem to understand

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Who is a better offensive option on the current warriors team?

There is no KD + Westbrook vs. Harden comparison, it’s not even in the same ballpark.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions  

you left out a word

playing within their “mediocre” capabilities.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

i'd rather have a player understand his role and play it

than have a player play completely outside of his capabilities because he thinks he’s so much better than everyone else

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

that is the role he is asked to play on this team.

That is essentially my basic issue with the premise of this argument, he is asked to play this role. Otherwise a coach wouldn’t play him 40 minutes a night. Which then leads to being tired, which affects efficiency significantly.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

point would be taken

if it wasn’t pretty well documented that monta generally played better at the end of games (when you’d think his efficiency would be dropping)

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

maybe, but adrenaline towards end of games plays a role in energy level.

Do you know where to find efficiency stats over a course of a season? I think that larger trend would better illustrate or refute the point.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

stop with your non sense

he takes shots early in the shot clock because he is very good at making them

0-10 seconds: 9.1 ppg on 55.9% eFG
11-15 seconds: 4.8 ppg on 45.2% eFG
16-20 seconds: 3.9 ppg on 44.9% eFG
21+ seconds: 2.0 ppg on 44.0% eFG

but yeah, STOP shooting Monta, obviously your teammates can shoot over 56% eFG if you pass the ball. Oh wait they can’t.

/bitter fans are bitter

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 12:24 AM PST up reply actions   2 recs

uh huh

of course and there is obviously no other number that can show that he takes a lot of bad shots. So basically you have no argument.

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Curious, did you watch the games?

Again we see an “anti-stats” person making a statistical argument … just a bad one.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions  

well mr. “pro-stats”, make a better statistical argument then

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Other people have shown the data when you exclude fast breaks.

Although I’m not sure where they’re getting it from, and don’t have the inclination to go dig for it right now.

But you can’t just ignore the fast-break problem with those stats – it’s not incidental, it touches on the very issue that you’re trying to discuss.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions  

A lot of that has to do with utilization

Monta plays as good as any SG when he is used within his capablities. No one took issue with his efficiency when Baron ran the point

by warriorsandgiantsfan on Dec 19, 2011 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Yea so we're on the same page

If Steph runs the point and Monta plays within his role, he is huge asset to this team

by warriorsandgiantsfan on Dec 19, 2011 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

that's only offensively though

he’s still a major liability at guarding SGs

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't buy the energy argument

It takes more energy to take risks on steals than to stay on front of your defender and play solid D. Yet, Monta continues to take risks rather than play good team defense.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree than

Though I do understand your point about the steals. We’ll see if Jackson can get Monta to gamble a little bit less stay in front of his man more

by warriorsandgiantsfan on Dec 19, 2011 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I keep hoping for it,

as I do recall Monta being better at defense earlier in his career. But when I see him play defense, it does not appear as though fatigue is a factor.

I would be interested to see if there are any advanced metrics that compare his performance defensively by quarter; by your theory, he should be much worse as the game progresses.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Fair enough

I do agree though that Ellis needs better defense concepts instilled in him, even if fatigue is playing a role

by warriorsandgiantsfan on Dec 19, 2011 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

that's what this really comes back to

Even if you argue that Monta is an above average offensive player (and there is much evidence to argue the contrary), you still can’t deny that Monta is horrible on defense.

Basically, any SG that is average or slightly above average on both offense and defense is a better option than Monta.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta plays as good as any SG when he is used within his capablities.

Not really.

Monta’s best season he had a .580TS.

The best SGs often get up above .600.

Monta is a lot better when he’s not given the opportunity to make as many dumb decisions with the ball. But let’s not pretend he’s at that truly elite level … he’s not.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Joe Johnson is worse than Monta

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

contrats being equal

I’d still rather have Monta. And contracts aren’t equal.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Why? If nothing else, Joe Johnson is a reasonable defender. Comparable scorers, so I think you have to give the end to JJ.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

lol- no I didn't

I need another year of that kind of production before I’ll make his case. I did forget Wesley Matthews, however.

by ERock386 on Dec 19, 2011 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

"People have relentlessly bashing Monta in recent threads"

Recently?

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Dec 19, 2011 12:32 PM PST reply actions  

I know

it’s been happening ever since the lovefest for Nellie ended and the “defense” rhetoric has been churned up so high as to deafen anything else.

by salary_cap on Dec 19, 2011 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

What on earth are you talking about. That’s a crazy misread of the situation.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

"He is definitely a top 10 shooting guard"

Well, I notice that all those stats are offensive stats.

Does defense not matter?

In any event, the problem with Monta offensively is that he doesn’t do a good job of getting to the line. Your stats manage to ignore that. Remember that two players can shoot the same FG%, the same 3pt%, and the same FT% and yet one can be much, much better.

Why? Simple – by changing the balance of those shots. If you and I shoot the same FG% and FT% but I get to the line twice as often as you do, then I’m contributing more to our team winning (assuming, as is true for pretty much every guard in the league, that our FT% > FG%).

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 12:51 PM PST reply actions  

Correction noted.

Steals are a lousy indicator of overall defense when you’re talking about a player who gambles for them.

And monta gambles for them all the time.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta came up in Nellie-ball. Steals were emphasized and he worked on those. With Keith Smart he was playing 45+ minutes for most of the games. Can’t blame a guy who is already preconditioned to steals, to go for the quick cheap play and try to save what little energy he has left.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

With Keith Smart he was playing 45+ minutes for most of the games.

I know it’s tempting, but really, you just want to make stuff up?

Monta averaged 40.3 minutes per game. He played over 45:01 or more in 18 games, of which six of which were OT games.

I absolutely blame the coaches for not working on Monta to reduce his bad defensive habits. That being said, I also feel like sometimes he HAS to gamble to steal because he simply lacks the size and strength to play good position defense. A good example of that was how RIchardson abused him in a game we had in Phoenix last year.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

it doesn’t really matter who gets the blame.
What matters is that he has been really bad at guarding SGs. Maybe he gets better, but it’s unlikely considering his lack of size/length and poor fundamentals.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:48 PM PST up reply actions  

given the fact that he has these poor habits at least suggests that if he can fix them then he can be a much better defender

it would be really nice to not see him gamble for hardly any steals and learn to shuffle sideways and not let his man past him. you would think with his athleticism he could do that..

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 20, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Defense

Monta’s defense is not great, but he’s done a pretty decent job when he’s needed to. Unortunately, he’s spent most of his career on offensive minded teams where defense hasn’t been a priority, and he’s never had the luxury of a dominant big man behind him who can protect the rim in case someone gets by him. People rave about Kobe’s defense and Iggy’s defense, and they’re probably good, but they also have had the benefit of having dominant big men behind them. Kobe had Shaq, and now Pau and Bynum. Iggy had Brand and Dalembert.

With your emphasis on stats, please let us know about which stats are adjusted to take into account the level of defender in the middle. I would be very interested to see who makes that list.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta’s defense is not great, but he’s done a pretty decent job when he’s needed to.

No, he really hasn’t. He’s had a few good games here and there, and that’s it.

Unortunately, he’s spent most of his career on offensive minded teams where defense hasn’t been a priority, and he’s never had the luxury of a dominant big man behind him who can protect the rim in case someone gets by him

And yet many of his teammates haven’t been torched with the same regularity. Yes, Monta hasn’t been protected, true. But Monta needs to be protected more than most players because he lacks size and lateral quickness. He’s overpowered by stronger players and vulnerable to change-of-direction moves from smaller ones.

Having a great big man behind him would mitigate the damage those flaws caused, but they wouldn’t eliminate the flaws.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Which teammates?

Which ones are you talking about? I think Monta actually gets assigned to the tougher matchups, so it stands out.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Dorell and Curry.

In fact, of our three main perimeter players, Dorell consistently drew the toughest defensive assignment. During the first half of the season, Monta sometimes took the tougher PG assignments from Curry, but that stopped sometime in January.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

What dominant defensive big has Iguodala played with?
The reason Iguodala is the best man to man defender in the NBA is because he’s really good at defense and not because of Spencer Hawes or Elton Brand, neither of whom are really threatening defensive bigs. Last year was probably Iguodala’s best individual defensive season and those are the guys who played behind him. Elton Brand is a reasonable man defender, but isn’t much of a help defender. Spencer Hawes sucks at everything.
Kobe is probably an overrated defender, but he’s still far out of Monta’s league. When he was young, he was really quick, but more importantly really really long (6’6" with 7’+ wingspan) and now that he’s old he’s really strong instead of quick. More of an SF, really.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:51 PM PST up reply actions  

The issue with Kobe in recent years has been inconsistent effort on defense.

He takes a lot of plays off. He appears to still be capable of being a competent defender, and certainly in his primes he was capable of being an elite defender.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 10:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Preparing to be bombarded with hate but

am I the only one who thinks most of the advanced/metric stats seem incredibly nitpicked and irrelevant?

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 1:17 PM PST reply actions  

If by "nitpicked" do you mean "thought about and logical?"

I mean, how is FG% (a “basic” stat) better than TS% (an “advanced” one)? How is FG% more relevant to what a player contributes to winning than TS%?

I get that some people don’t like to think about stats, but what’s fascinating is how often “anti-stat” people rely on stats. Unfortunately, they rely on bad stats – like PPG and FG%. This fanpost is a great example of that kind of thinking: use of PPG without the context of Monta’s minutes played, use of steals as some sort of meaningful proxy for defense, use of FG% and FT% without any understanding of how those two stats relate.

Of course, you don’t need to be a stat-head to understand why Monta is a problem. You just need to watch the game and actually pay attention (not just to the good things that Monta does, but to the bad things as well). Turns out that this is really hard to do. Most people can’t be bothered.

But I will say this – a lot of us had some optimism about Monta last year, but that optimism went away not because Monta put up bad stats early, but because we watched him play. In particular, on the same road trip where Lee was injured, if you were on the game threads, you saw a lot of us worrying – not about Monta’s stats, but rather about the things that we now use stats to reference (eg, his tendency to take long two-point shots early in the shot clock, or to drive into a set defense).

When you’ve seen Monta drive into a set defense with plenty of shot-clock time left, you know you have a problem – even if he makes the shot. Because everybody who’s watched a lot of basketball or played it knows that driving into a set defense is not a good strategy in the long run. This is not a statistical argument (although, of course, advanced stats verify it).

Just watch the game.

Really watch it.

And notice how much more often what you see lines up with so-called “advanced” stats than with the basic ones.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 1:31 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

lol

Nowhere in any part of post did I say anything to defend Monta or say he’s great or anything of the sort.

I understand the use of advanced statistics, I just wouldn’t base my opinion of a player completely off of them. I like to watch games to make those judgements.

DISCLAIMER*** THAT LAST SENTENCE IS NOT MY WAY OF DEFENDING MONTA ELLIS OR CALLING HIM A GREAT OR EVEN GOOD PLAYER ****

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 1:36 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I understand the use of advanced statistics, I just wouldn’t base my opinion of a player completely off of them. I like to watch games to make those judgements.

Here we go again, the same stupid assumption that people who use stats in their arguments only look at numbers and never watch actual basketball…

by WYK on Dec 19, 2011 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Once again words being put in my mouth.

I said that I prefer to make my judgements based off of what I see when I watch the games rather than what the numbers say. I never said “people who use stats in their arguments only look at numbers and never watch actual basketball.”

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

You didn’t say it, but you sure as hell implied it. It’s the same old formula; someone brings up stats, another guy says “I’d rather watch games than look at numbers.” What do you think is being insinuated here?

by WYK on Dec 19, 2011 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

You're not really that dumb, though, are you?

This is almost like “it depends on what the meaning of the word is is.”

Are you trying to prove a rhetorical point or are you trying to participate in a conversation? Unless you’re autistic, which I doubt, you understand the context of your words. This is particularly true since nobody was particularly making an advanced-stats arguement in this thread.

So why don’t you stop hiding and tell us what you think about Monta?

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

You want to hear my thoughts about Monta?

I was one of the ones hoping for that Iggy trade, and I hope that somehow Klay can supplant him as the starting shooting guard. I don’t like him as the starting shooting guard at all.

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 11:52 PM PST up reply actions  

advanced statistics in general are much better predictors of future performance

the eye test introduces biases, and people naturally have selective memories. i tend to think players i like play better than players i don’t like.

by bigkino217 on Dec 19, 2011 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Wha?

The eye test matters. A hell of a lot. Personally I watch the game to enjoy basketball, rather than figure out a better way to improve statistical models. The eye test also allows you to spot anomolies like Troy Murphy who sucks up all the rebounds that a guard should get, and never plays inside. Whenever he played in position, he was nowhere near a top 10 rebounder.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Do you really think that your eyes are unbiased? We all have bias. If we don’t check what we see against some objective measure, we can be fooled.
Unless you’re a high level basketball analyst (like none of us are), you can’t rely solely on your eyes to make player evaluations. Even guys who are great analysts like that use stats. Sebastian Pruiti who writes every where breaks down crazy amounts of video during the season, but also uses advanced statistics in his articles because they tell you something.
Of course watching games matters, but it’s more important to analyze games. Most people don’t do this when they watch a game in real time. It’s not fun to do it, either.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Nowhere in any part of post did I say anything to defend Monta or say he’s great or anything of the sort.

Well, there’s this thing called context. We humans use it in communication. Turns out people – appropriately – use it all the time.

And in the context of this fanpost, it’s pretty absurd to claim that your statement wasn’t related to Monta.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

The thing is, I never said anything about Monta in my post.

You made the assumption that I was talking about Monta.

It is funny though. I was about to comment right after my original post saying “I know this has nothing to do with the fanpost but I had nowhere else to put it and I wasn’t going to make a separate fanpost/fanshot for it.” I decided against it, and now I’m being personally attacked. I assumed that people wouldn’t get hurt by my comment. Guess my assumption was wrong!

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not hurt by your comment.

I just think you’re playing dumb by taking refuge in the whole “But I never said anything about Monta” schtick.

Context matters. When you willfully ignore it, it’s your fault if people misunderstand you.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

hahaha

I’m absolutely not playing dumb. Don’t worry about that. I’m being 100% serious. As I said before I was about to comment on my own post saying that it has nothing to do with the thread. Would have saved a lot of attacks!

by notEdreese on Dec 19, 2011 11:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand the use of advanced statistics, I just wouldn’t base my opinion of a player completely off of them.

Please provide me an example of any regular contributor to this board who does this.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I have no issue with advanced statistics, they paint a good picture of a player

But I honestly don’t feel like they tell you anything you cannot not see by watching the games closely enough.

I’ve watched enough Warrior basketball to know that Monta is not a great defender, and statiscal evidence backs this up. But what the stats don’t account for is how the coach utilizes players, supporting cast, playing the player extended minutes ect.

Monta was undoubteldy misused by Keith Smart, who had Monta play 40+ minutes, handle the ball more than Steph, and be the only focal point of the offense. By assigning Monta as the player to take the majority of shots in the offense, Smart effectively helped Ellis’s effeiciency take a nose dive, while killing any chance of him playing defense since he would spend so much energy trying to create offense.

Its clear Monta’s best use as a player is off-ball, his efficiency waas at its best when Baron Davis was running the point and Monta played witin the offensive scheme of the team. Coach Jackson seems to have taken the team back in this direction as evidenced in the first preseason game when he allowed Steph to intiate more of the offense and have Monta play more within the teams concepts, resulting in 8/11 shooting. Monta’s minutes appear to be poised for a decrease as well with CJ, Klay, and Rush all capable of playing backup guard off the bench, allowing Monta to conserve more energy and applying it to better defensive effort.

While their is absoloutely no indication that increased effort on Monta’s defense may actually improve it, but if he can increase his defensive effort from god-awful to average/slightly below average, his offense excellence can more than make up for his remaining shortcomings.

by warriorsandgiantsfan on Dec 19, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

And when somebody does that, you should (rightly) call them on it.

You’ll find, in fact, that most of us stat-heads don’t make that sort of argument very often, except in arguing, say, that Reggie should have gotten more minutes.

But nobody’s doing that with Monta. We’re merely pointing out that his per-game totals make him look better than he really is because he plays more minutes than most of the other volume scorers in the league.

Ironically, your fear about rate stats is that people will use them to compare players who play vastly different numbers of minutes … which is EXACTLY what you’re doing when you use per-game stats to discuss Monta.

Whereas looking at rate stats allows us to see that the claim, for example, that Monta was “carrying” the offensive load is rather untrue. He took one more shot every 12 minutes than Curry. That’s not a lot … and yet people seem eager to use it to excuse the huge efficiency differential between them.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

props to the poster- don't leave morrow

I am also not feeling the rhetoric that Reggie Williams is somehow better than Monta. Put Reggie in as many minutes, and have him be the focal point of the other team’s defense and see how well that works out.
My irritation with the stat geeks on this site is that they treat sports not as an art form but as a science. In addition, they belittle those of who choose to simply enjoy the game for the fun of it as opposed to analyze each moment of a game and player move with an advanced stats metric.
In my limited exposure to these advanced stats charts I’ve noticed guys like Matt Bonner being rated higher than guys who are stars in this league. Plus, each list I see seems to have a different formula (perhaps so that the players that the stat designer likes can get a higher ranking).
I have NO problem with those who do enjoy pairing studying stats to this extent to their watching of the games. I just don’t appreciate the condescension to those of us who just enjoy watching the games and cheering for our favorite players for reasons that stats don’t measure. We are allowed to say Monta is a great player too!

by Togna Balogna on Dec 19, 2011 1:55 PM PST reply actions  

agreed with everything you said.

Stats play a huge role in basketball because in the end, teams want a leg up on others and what better way than to use science.
With that said, science plays only a small, relevant role in terms of a player and how he/she may fit in to a certain position. But with the vast majority of systems, each player is unique. What stats and advanced stats like to do is to group them up into perfect little groups, easily depicted and analyzed. And the groupings itself is flawed in that each group has many different variables.
-For example, look at guards, then point guards, then we look at assists, turnovers, and points. If we look at PG itself and divest into the different stats PG’s are associated with, there are multitude of variables that play in such as the opponents, health, teammates, the basketball system currently in place, schedule, etc. Thus in conclusion, determining and assessing a player should never be majority assumed by stats over player’s own game. A players game cannot be put into math such as his/her desire, athelticism, fearlessness, strokes, etc. Every game tells a different story so examine it a player through watching and understanding his/her game.

curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.

by bimmercirem3 on Dec 19, 2011 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Every game tells a different story so examine it a player through watching and understanding his/her game.

The problem is that people who “just watch the game” are in fact, often relying on stats, first of all – just bad ones like PPG.

The second problem is that people who “just watch the game” consistently miss certain aspects of it, unless they look for them specifically. They over-value aesthetics (which explains why people think Monta is better than Kevin Martin) and under-value missed shots.

We’ve had lots of discussions of the game which had nothing to do with stats which talked about the kind of stuff Monta does wrong. We’ve even had threads were people have posted video clips demonstrating the problems. So the notion that there’s some cadre of people who are evaluating the game based on numbers and calculations is rather absurd.

It’s straw man arugment. I mean, look at its use in this thread: you’ll see very little “Advanced stat” discussion in this thread. And yet advanced stats are being attacked? Why?

Simple. It’s easier to make vague accusations against advanced stats than it is to defend Monta’s abysmal play.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta is better than Kevin Martin

The only part of Martin’s game that is better is the yelling really loud when he drives so that the refs give him free throws.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

And yet that results in Martin using a lot fewer possessions to get his points.

Martin’s ugly, ugly game wins more points than Monta’s much prettier one.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah..

Monta’s crime is getting a bunch of tats and playing on the Warriors, so he won’t get as many calls. I think Monta’s stats would be better if he would get the calls.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta avoids contact when he goes to the rim.

Players like Martin don’t. They create it. Corey Maggette did the same thing. They create contact, they take the shot. Those players get lots of calls.

Monta’s never – no matter what team he plays for – going to get a lot of calls because dodgey, weavey guys don’t get calls. It’s not about being a Warrior – Corey Magette got a ton of calls as a Warrior – and it’s not about tats.

The league is actually cracking down this year on some of the more egregious ways in which offensive players try to draw shooting fouls, but I don’t think it’s going to change what guys like Mags and Martin do.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Kevin Martin runs like a goof and played for the Kings. Why would the refs give someone like him preferential treatment? That’s just idiotic.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Monta’s stats would be better if he would get the calls.

I think monta’s stats would be better if he didn’t shy away from contact and learn to draw fouls

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 8:32 AM PST up reply actions  

No.

Those guys are just better at throwing their arms in the air and yelling. The refs shouldn’t be giving preferential treatment to guys that plow into defenders with no hope of taking a real shot. Monta avoids contact because he’s trying to make a basketball play, make a shot, not get the referees to bail him out. That being said, Monta gets hammered a lot without any calls.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Monta avoids contact because he’s trying to make a basketball play, make a shot, not get the referees to bail him out.

no, monta avoid’s contact because he doesn’t want to get hit

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:38 AM PST up reply actions  

I suspect the issue is related to Monta's size and strength.

Magette’s a bull. He can play through contact and have a reasonable chance of still sending the ball vaguely where he wants it. You see that with Kobe a ton – he creates contact on his shooting arm and still gets the shot off.

Monta, however, is a lot smaller and weaker, which makes it harder for him to play through contact.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

He’s so light, undersized and such a poor jumper, contact would almost certainly result in a miss.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

true, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the right play

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I think if he played more aggressively, as in going AT opponents, he’d get stuffed and knocked down a lot more. He’s a proud man and doesn’t want that, even if it gets him more fouls. You’re right. It may be the right play, but I can see why Monta wouldn’t want to get stuffed and miss more shots. Someone should help him see how it’ll help the team win more, in all likelihood, to take that risk.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think it's about pride.

I think it’s about not wanting to get beat up.

Landing on the hardwood hurts. Charging into a bigger player hurts.

Monta’s resilience so far in his career has been impressive, but I can’t help but wonder if it’s a function of the way he avoids contact. When you’re bigger than (or closer in size to) the guy you collide with, you go down a lot less often a lot less hard.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

It may just be that because he can, he avoids contact. He’s probably just concentrating on making the shot and not thinking about strategy or efficiency. He’s very competitive; of course, he may just be too prideful to accept getting swatted on occasion.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

This

He knows he can get around almost anyone so that’s what he does. May not be the best thing and creating contact once in a while will do nothing but help keep the D’ honest, but I think he see it as he can just out quick the D.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Dec 22, 2011 6:40 AM PST up reply actions  

poor jumper? what the…

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

He lacks vertical leaping ability. Poor might be an overstatement, but he’s certainly nothing special. A 6’3" NBA player should be able to throw it down, but he can’t seem to very well. Maybe it’s also his T-rex arms.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

no he doesn’t…he gets up as high as anybody save for the elite dunkers.

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah, Monta can definitely get up

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

He’s barely above the rim here.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLKHC4uTKaY

from the different angle of duby’s picture, his head is above the bottom of the backboard, which assuming he is 6’3 with shoes would give him a vertical a bit over 3 feet. nothing extraordinary, but not really lacking either. he’s probably and average to slightly above average leaper

by bigkino217 on Dec 22, 2011 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Wouldn’t surprise me if, for his size, he’s about average in the NBA.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

He can barely dunk, despite being 6’3". That’s below NBA average. I think you’re imagining things. He’s fast, but he can’t jump particularly well.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

I think the issue is more with his arm length than his vertical.

If he had 4 or 5 inches more on his wingspan, he’d appear to be a much better jumper.

by Spider Jerusalem on Dec 23, 2011 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it’s the combination of slightly below NBA average leaping ability and short arms.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 24, 2011 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Monta seems to have very good hang time.

But I don’t feel like he gets up particularly high.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

monta does not play abysmally

statements like this are what those of us not infatuated with stats are tired of.
He is a good player, who can be great at times, and average or poor at others. While his average and poor play is more than others with his offensive talent – I blame Monta, coaching, and the lack of proven talent around him.
This is based on watching likely every game he has been in and seeing him do things that many players simply cannot do. He is an offensive, scoring machine. He is also a better passer than he gets credit for. At the same time, he is not good enough on defense and his decision making is not always good – things that can improve.
Calling him abysmal while also referencing straw man arguments (both examples of hyperbole) is hypocritical.

by Togna Balogna on Dec 19, 2011 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta is one of the worst defensive two-gaurds in the league.

That has to fit any definition of abysmal, right? It’s not hyperbole to look at someone who doesn’t play defense at an acceptable level for an NBA two-guard and call it abysmal.

As for his offense, I don’t think his offense was abysmal last year, but the year before I do.

It was terrible. And blaming his teammaets is absurd since the team was better – by a non-trivial amount – when he wasn’t on the floor.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

so was allen iverson

so is steve nash
so is tony allen (which is why Bowen and Manu were needed)
never heard them referred to as abysmal
NBA is a team game – if you have a roster full of defensive stoppers who cannot score you will suck. If you have a roster that is the opposite – you will suck like the Warriors have. Each team needs a mix of guys who can make up for other players short comings.
Monta is great offensive talent. I never said he was good at defense. Obviously if he was good at defense he would go from being good to great.

Offense is under rated. Tony Allen, Bruce Bowen, seen as great defenders are not called abysmal because they are great at what they do.

by Togna Balogna on Dec 19, 2011 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Steve Nash is so absurdly good at offense that his defense doesn’t matter.
Tony Parker also isn’t as bad as defense as Monta. Monta is really bottom of the barrel. Tony Parker is just kinda bad.

Players who are great at one thing and then get out of the way at the other get a pass. Steve Nash, for example, is an offensive savant. On the defensive end, he stays in position. He doesn’t lock anyone down, but he also doesn’t give up position by gambling for steals. He just sort of exists as a bad man defender and it fits into his team’s defensive scheme.
Monta isn’t half the offensive player that Steve Nash is. Over the last few years, his offense has hurt the team. His scoring efficiency is kind of low and on a per possession basis is an average passer. He probably gets too much crap for his TOs, though. He needs to defer to his teammates more, especially Stephen Curry. He’s also a bigger minus on defense than Nash because he makes so many mistakes.
Those stoppers who excel at defense are often reasonable low usg offensive players. Guys like Battier and Bruce Bowen are good 3 point shooters who fit in as the 5th guy on an offensive scheme. If Monta was genuinely as good at offense as Shane Battier was at defense during his career, I think you’d have to put up with it. For him to be that good of a scorer, though, he would basically be Kevin Durant.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

the whole "when he is off the floor" argument seems silly

He is in the game when the other teams best players also happen to be there
He is usually out of the game when the other team’s crappy players are there.

Also, given how little he did not play – seems like too small of a sample size regardless.Essentially, that statement argues that if the Warriors never had Monta, and thos who backed him up in year’s past were playing his position, the Warriors would have won more games than they have while he has been a starter. You would be hard pressed to convince me of that.

by Togna Balogna on Dec 19, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought Monta played all of the minutes. If he’s playing basically every minute, then he’s on the court for all of the opponents.
Rarely do team’s rotations actually lineup like that. It’s something of a reasonable point with guys like Reggie Williams, but it isn’t for someone like Stephen Curry or any of the other starting 2s in the league who we’re comparing him to.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

It's a special subset of minutes -

- argument would hold more water if the small sample sizes we had when he was injured didn’t tell the same story.

The notion that Monta was matched up against opposing team’s starters in a way that, say, Curry wasn’t doesn’t make any sense. If anything, Monta had more minutes against the opposing scrubs. (Remember how we’ve seen, over the past two years, “four second unit players with Monta” lineup a bit.) Monta’s huge number total actually argues against the notion that he was up against opponent’s toughest players.

Dorell also played a huge number of minutes – and yet he was a clear net positive.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 PM PST up reply actions  

My irritation with the stat geeks on this site is that they treat sports not as an art form but as a science. In addition, they belittle those of who choose to simply enjoy the game for the fun of it as opposed to analyze each moment of a game and player move with an advanced stats metric.

It’s ironic that you complain about belittling in the same paragraph that you call us stat geeks.

But in any event, it’s worth pointing out that the original poster didn’t make an “appreciative” argument for Monta. He made a statistical argument.

It just turned out that he made a really really bad statistical argument.

We are allowed to say Monta is a great player too!

Sure. The funny thing is, in this thread, you won’t see a lot of advanced-stats arguments for why Monta is a problem. You’ll instead see a lot of discussion, talking about what we’ve seen when we’ve watched him play.

So I find it pretty funny that people like you are lashing out against stats, when the majority of stats in this thread have been used to paint the picture of Monta as a good player.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I can only speak for myself

Please note that I am not referring to any stats when I say he is a great player. Your calling him abysmal is all I need to read – clearly you are just not a fan of Monta and so it matters little what others say.

by Togna Balogna on Dec 19, 2011 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

UGH

You people are ridiculous. Reggie Williams better than Monta? I love that guy, but damn, if we were without Monta for the last 5 years, I’m not sure I would still care about this team. Monta has carried the offensive load for the last several years and it’s not even close to who’s second. Why the hell would the coaches be running him out there for 40+ minutes per game every season if we had any other options? The coaches have made a concious decision that a worn out Monta at 70% is better than a fresh Reggie Williams, a fresh Anthony Morrow, a fresh whoever else. Why? Because he is the best chance they have to win.

The Warriors for the past several years have had a lot shooters who can make a jump shot, but aren’t great at creating their own shot. You need a guy like Monta out there who at least can draw defenses towards him, to get other guys open. Early on in his career when he was a number two guy, he almost led the league in field goal percentage, despite being a guard!

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 2:50 PM PST reply actions  

This is an logical fallacy called the "appeal to authority."

Which is made all the more laughable because the authority you’re appealing to is Keith Smart.

Early on in his career when he was a number two guy, he almost led the league in field goal percentage, despite being a guard!

It’s also pretty funny when people are so desperate to make a point that they just make up statistics to defend their favorite player.

Monta’s FG% that year was .531. That was 14th in the league, which I wouldn’t call “almost leading the league.” It was third among guards.

Of course, his TS% wasn’t third among guards or 14th in the league. He was 66th in the league in TS%, and there were plenty of other guards (and even high-usage guards) ahead of him.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

it's not exactly a logical fallacy.

Unless Nellie has a personal beef with a player (see Chris Webber or Anthony Randolph) he will play the players that give him the best chance to win. Why do you think Reggie Williams even got an opportunity? On most teams he wouldn’t have sniffed minutes, but Nellie saw something in him that others didn’t. It is a relevant fact that the coaches ran Monta out there time and again.

by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

also

lets not forget that he played on teams that were so thin, that a guy that a guy that fouled out had to stay on the floor. Teams that wer so thin, that they were stuffed with 5 guys from the NBADL, and vets on expiring contracts. Maybe he’s pissed that we didn’t get to see more Coby Karl or Devan George minutes.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:19 PM PST up reply actions  

debate geek here - this is exactly a logical fallacy

for two reasons:

Firstly, just because most of what a coach says may be correct, does not logically mean that they are correct on this issue.

Secondly, this is inductive reasoning, meaning that even if you could reasonably prove that the coaches are a reliable authority on this issue their conclusion is not unconditionally correct

The coaches have made a concious decision that a worn out Monta at 70% is better than a fresh Reggie Williams, a fresh Anthony Morrow, a fresh whoever else. Why? Because he is the best chance they have to win.

so yeah, this is a relevant fact, but I think the stats (which strongly point toward the coaches all being wrong on this) should carry the day. The fact is that there is something of a census among the stats experts (at least as far as I can tell) that Monta is not that good at helping teams win.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

oops brain fart at the end there

The fact is that there is something of a census consensus among the stats experts (at least as far as I can tell) that Monta is not that good at helping teams win.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Your logic is terrible

So by your logic, the player with the most minutes on a team must be to blame for the team being bad. Alternatively, you can say that the team was sooo bad, that Monta kept them from losing by a hell of a lot more. Based on what I’ve seen, I tend to believe the latter.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Your logic is terrible
So by your logic, the player with the most minutes on a team must be to blame for the team being bad.

Yeah, that would be terrible logic, if it remotely resembled what Duby Dub Dubs wrote. It didn’t.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 19, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

is this a reply to me?

If so, I guess you are talking about plus/minus?

the player with the most minutes on a team must be to blame for the team being bad

and

Monta kept them from losing by a hell of a lot more

it is just a measure of point differential, I’m not sure how your response follows from what I said.
Look at it this way. The plus/minus numbers do NOT say “Monta sucks” they just indicate that the Dubs lineups do better overall when Monta is not involved in them (which pretty much implies that Monta sucks..but doesn’t really prove it).

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t care about +/- . I care about what happens on the floor. I care about what I watched. When Monta came off the floor, you could visibly see with your own eyes that the game changed and that the team had no clue how to score. The team was also still terrible at defense.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 3:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Sometimes what we see is not what's really going on.

This would be one of those times.

I watched the same games you did, and I saw no such problem.

In any event, even if what you say was true, it’s almost besides the point – because you’re talking about a team that didn’t have a functional team offense. You see this all the time in basketball: when one player dominates the ball, everybody else starts standing around doing nothing. Take that player off, and they’re still standing around, because the bad habit has been formed and you can’t turn it off like a switch.

You say you care about what happens on the floor, but of course +/- is NOTHING but a record of everything that happened on the floor. The stat doesn’t lie, and it doesn’t support what you saw. We know no mechanism by which stat could lie … but we’re very familiar with concepts like confirmation bias which explain what you think you saw what you think you saw.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

please do me a personal favor

and watch this video right here (you can just watch the intro and then skip forward to the final minute or so)

the so-called Monty Hall “paradox” is important because the result appears odd but are demonstrably true. So yeah, your eyeballs may tell you that the Dubs are just as bad without Monta, but the numbers say otherwise.

To me, one of the most interesting facets of this issue is that even after knowing the math of it, most folks still refused to believe that switching is beneficial. Just like the case against Monta

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I clearly can't help you with this then
I don’t care about +/- . I care about what happens on the floor.

I’m guessing that you don’t even see a problem with this statement.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

+/- is a nice stat to quickly sum up what happened on the floor when a guy was out there, but it doesn’t necessearily mean they were responsible for it.

The counter example to this is Mario Chalmers had the highest +/- on the Heat for the post season, erego, Chalmers is clearly better and more valuable then LeBron.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:44 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure where you are looking

But it looks like LeBron did indeed have the best +/- on the heat last year.

Heck, while we are at it…take a look at this list

bunch of A-grade talent in there, and definitely no scrubs.

Now, look at our Dubs last year

I want to again stress that I’m not trying to sell +/- as some sort of master stat, but it is a key piece of the puzzle to me.

Monta, for all his airborn wizardry, comes in as just a notch less damaging than Biedrens. Look at DWright (the closest to Monta in minutes) and you can see that (although still a net negative) his impact is almost 50% less damaging than Monta…so playing time can’t really be all that much of a factor

Explain it away however you want, but please acknowledge that you are adjusting reality to fit your preconceptions.

As a final shot, I would also like to point out that some of the most highly respected NBA sites out there use +/- as their primary evaluation of the “top players”

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

UGH

I mentioned in the post season, that was where I got the numbers for the Heat. If you look at the Warriors list, you’ll notice Vlad Rad at number 2 for +/-, so I take it you would say that he was our second best player and should have been on the floor a lot more, right? While we’re at it, I’m surprised you aren’t being more vocal about the Charlie Bell amnesty, since he was #6 on the team in +/-.

While we’re at it, lets further agree that Collison is better than Durant, and that Westbrook shouldn’t be in the starting lineup for the Thunder. It also goes without saying that Dunleavy was the best player for the Pacers and that Granger is lucky to still be on the team. John Wall is the worst player in the league, and Kobe Bryant was only the fourth best player on his team, behind NBA superstars Derek Fisher and Meta World Peace.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 5:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you not familiar with adjusted plus/minus? Among playoff players, LeBron was second to Dirk Nowitzki. Mario Chalmers wasn’t top 10. In fact, he was negative -4.65 during the playoffs.
Yeah, weird things happens with plus/minus in small samples, but that doesn’t mean it’s worthless. It just means you use it to evaluate players in larger samples. Using it the way you’re using it is using stats wrong or misleadingly. It’s exactly how you’re not supposed to do it.

To address your Durant thing: his 2 year APM rating is 2nd in the league, after LeBron. Collison was 6th, which is very good, obviously. However, an open minded, reasonable observer sees that and thinks “hey, maybe this guy is a lot better than I thought” and not “I disagree with that, so the stat is wrong.” Doesn’t that sound crazy?
http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?&year=2010-2011

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Collison was a damn fine college player too

And sorry Ice Water, didn’t realize you were just talking about playoffs..

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions  

sigh..

The point I was making is that you can usually find a set of stats that can backup your claim, and that I can go and use similar stats to refute the claim. Bad teams are going to have a lot more players with negative +/- ratios, and the bigger role they play for the team, the worse the number will be.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Bad teams are going to have a lot more players with negative +/- ratios, and the bigger role they play for the team, the worse the number will be.

and that is why we don’t use +/-, we use ADJUSTED +/- or REGULARIZED ADJUSTED +/-.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:39 AM PST up reply actions  

haha, thanks

and yeah, it does make me feel better

btw, I think your Kings are looking good this year, but what’s up with Dalembert? Is it a given that the Kings will pay him now that Hayes fell out?

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

who knows

Either way, our interior D sucked last year with him. And without him I don’t see how on earth it can suck less so … yay!

by wallywagon11 on Dec 20, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I've got a really low opinion of Hickson

but if he could figure it out, a frontcourt of Cousins and Hickson would be nasty

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

This is a bodybag disguised as a post.

by belilaugh on Dec 20, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh I understood

I’m fine with people choosing to trust their computers over what they saw. Go right ahead. Please spend more time absorbed with statistical models than watching the game. In fact, why allow your stats to be tainted by perceived notions that come from watching a game? It’s best to look at stats, extrapolate from them and proclaim a winner. Congratulations to the 2011 Phillies! and the 2011 Heat! and the 2012 Eagles!

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

You didn’t understand because your post didn’t make sense after his. He was talking about a logical fallacy, which your post was a great example of. What was being talked about almost doesn’t matter, just that YOUR post was the one that wasn’t at all logical.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes

I live in a tiny box, where I refuse to accept anything outside of my own opinion. Or maybe I took your stats, looked up counterexamples, provided them to help prove my point that the stats aren’t perfect, nah.. that can’t be it.

Based on the number of posts you’ve made, I’d say it’s abundantly clear that you don’t want to give up on your idea of hating Monta. Do what you want. I’ll go on and continue to support one of the most electric players in the league, who deserves better than to be blamed for this mess of a team.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Okay. Enough trolling. Monta simply doesn’t help us win. It’s that simple. Reggie was better than him.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless Nellie has a personal beef with a player (see Chris Webber or Anthony Randolph) he will play the players that give him the best chance to win.

I don’t agree with this statement.

Nellie, in his latter years, engaged in a lot of lazy coaching. His strategy seemed to be to give one player a green light to do whatever he wanted. That was a smart strategy when that player was Baron, but a really lousy when one it was Stephen Jackson or Monta Ellis.

It’s hard to know what Nellie was thinking, because it’s hard to imagine anyone thinks “having a mediocre ballhandler dominate the ball” is the best possible winning strategy. Most people think the opposite: the best strategy is cohesive team play.

There’s just as much evidence – if not more – to support the claim that Nellie played him those minutes because it was the easiest thing for him to do as there is to claim that Nellie did it because he thought it was the best way to win games. We should therefore avoid putting words in his mouth.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

No

Nellie did not say to give a mediocre ball handler the ball more often. It was more a matter of , the guy who has the best chance to score shoudl have the ball more often because we want him to shoot as much as possible .

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

But Monta is a mediocre ballhandler, and it took the ball out of a much better ballhandler’s hands (Stephen Curry.)

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta is a better passer though..

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 AM PST up reply actions  

No, he's not.

We’ve discussed this before. He’s really not a better passer.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

my two cents

I’ve been fascinated by this debate for a long time…the battle between stats and “eyeballs” for Monta’s basketball identity.

Does he suck? Is he awesome?

My takeaway from all this is that Monta is awesome. He plays hard, makes some crazy acrobatic shots and is willing to take a leadership role.

BUT stats are nothing but a measurement of what happens on the court. I know plus/minus isn’t the end all be all stat, but the truth of the matter is that the Dubs tend to do a fair bit better when Monta is not on the court.

Do I think Monta can improve? Hell yeah, in fact, I expect him to break out this year. But I must also admit to myself that when I talk about him doing well, I’m usually assuming some sort of change (better D, less stupid shots, no wasted possessions with those early semi-contested shots in slow transition).

For every game winner Monta hits, there are 2 or 3 blow-bys, where he essentially gifts a basket to the other team. For every amazing layup he hits, there are 2 or 3 drives he shouldn’t have taken. It’s not “hating” to point this out.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 3:44 PM PST reply actions  

Do I think Monta can improve? Hell yeah, in fact, I expect him to break out this year. But I must also admit to myself that when I talk about him doing well, I’m usually assuming some sort of change (better D, less stupid shots, no wasted possessions with those early semi-contested shots in slow transition).

There is certainly lots of reason to think that Monta has the potential to improve. Better coaching could help him with his decision-making. Moving him off the ball could reduce his worst tendencies. Playing fewer minutes could help him put more energy into defense.

That being said, there are also problems with his game that are not likely to improve: his size and lack of lateral quickness make it unlikely that he’ll ever be even an average defender, for example, no matter how much energy he puts into it. His poor ballhandling skills (tall dribble, head down) make it unlikely that he’ll ever be great as dishing off his drives – he’ll almost certainly always be someone who shoots too much in traffic. His lack of size and strength means he has to avoid contact to finish, which means he’s unlikely ever to be good at drawing fouls – which is a crucial NBA skill.

And then there’s the big one, which none of us can know, which is ego. It’s very rare for a player to accept that he helps his team the most by doing less, especially once he’s gotten a taste of the limelight. I would love to see Monta play with an awareness of his limitations, but that’s something that’s as impossible to predict as the future of Andris Biedrins’ confidence. Last year he appeared to be on the right track until Lee got hurt and he had a couple of good games – then he turned right back into the guy we were afraid of him being.

Time will tell.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Plus minus

It misses a lot of the action. If you watch the games, the offense comes to a complete standstill in the minutes he’s off the floor. I don’t quite agree with your ratios of for every game winner, there are 2 or three blowbys.. because, how often do you get in position for a game winner? He misses some assignments on D, but so does the rest of the team. Monta has never had the benefit of having someone behind him that can help cleanup his mistakes so his defense looks worse because of it.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Monta has never had the benefit of having someone behind him that can help cleanup his mistakes so his defense looks worse because of it.

Neither have Dorell or Curry, and yet the stats don’t suggest they’re nearly as bad on defense.

If “not having help behind you” meant that much, you would expect to see a similar effect on all wing players on the Warriors. But you don’t. You see that other players had much better numbers in that area than Monta.

Every blows assignments sometimes, and if all it was was a few blown assignment, nobody would be making a big deal about it.

The truth is that it’s a consistent lack of effort. It’s a frequent reliance on gambling or even just simply standing there and not trying to stay in front of his man.

If you watched the games and paid attention, you saw this happen often. I suspect, therefore, that you weren’t paying that much attention on defense, or you were willing to write off the times when you saw it happen as anomalies – like you do in this post, by the way. You say that it happens to everyone.

But it doesn’t happen to everyone with the frequency that it happened to Monta. And that’s the problem.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

for the record

I watch nearly every Dubs game…have since the We Believe run. Record them and watch em later if I have to. Literally have missed only one or two Dubs games per year for at least the last three or four years

and as far as the ratios, I totally made them up, so will readily admit to them being wrong if someone shows actual numbers. Just trying to make the point that although we may remember certain plays more than others, stats treat all minutes equally.

You see the offense come to a standstill when Monta comes out. But what do I see when Monta comes off the floor? I see a team that plays more like a team. I would rather see 3 extra passes around the perimeter than one dude put his head down and drive into a set defense

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah, it is painful sometimes

but there are always a few surprise victories that you know most people didn’t see.
makes it all worth it

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

If we're going with that...

I’ve been a season ticket holder since before you watched nearly every Dubs game. So I have seen, in person, most of the games you are talking about.

Yeah, I would love for the team to have an offense with Monta on the bench, but it never happens. It comes to a complete hault, then Monta gets out there and has to try to score because no one else on the team will. Stats do treat all things equally, but they don’t capture things like, the other team is much better, Monta not getting calls, and they don’t actually record “blowby’s” or “terrible shots taken”. So for your examples, you examples, you can only go off your biased memories. The stats only support that the team wasn’t any good. If you’re going to use stats like +/- to say the team was worse off with Monta, then you have to standby the statement that the team was better with Vlad Rad on the floor.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 5:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I hate to cause division in the ranks of Dubs fans, but just one more response
So I have seen, in person, most of the games you are talking about.

meh, doesn’t matter, a game watched is a game watched.
Thanks for supporting our team though! If I could, I’d definitely go to more games (used to be no money, now my problem is small children)

standby the statement that the team was better with Vlad Rad on the floor

I’m actually ok with this. Vlad had a career year for us last year. I certainly wouldn’t build a franchise around him (or even pay him more than minimum salary) but I definitely thought he helped the team win (a tiny bit)

But again, this gets back to the issue of trying to use something like +/- as a one stop all-inclusive stat (it’s not). But look at multiple seasons and they paint a pretty unflattering picture of Monta.

Stats do treat all things equally, but they don’t capture things like, the other team is much better, Monta not getting calls, and they don’t actually record "blowby’s" or "terrible shots taken". So for your examples, you examples, you can only go off your biased memories

Right, but if I understand correctly, there are actually much better stats out there which support the position that Monta is horrible (and this is not an exaggeration) at defense and pretty damn bad at offense on top of that. Stats may not capture something like “terrible shots taken” but they do show how many shots it takes to get your points (pretty much the functional equivalent) and by that measure, Monta is not good

I hate that this debate has devolved to just +/-; I would request some support from one of the more fluent stats folk to give you the low down on other useful metrics, but I know it wouldn’t matter to you

actually found this

pretty nice breakdown

Creating shots is not a problem for Monta Ellis
Over the last two seasons, only three players have averaged more shot attempts, per minute, than Ellis. Their names are Kobe, Carmelo, and Dwyane. Perhaps you’ve heard of them.

Making shots is a problem for Monta Ellis
Over the same span, only six players have averaged more than one shot attempt every two minutes. Ellis ranks last among them in efficiency, with a True Shooting mark of 52.7. Last season, the average NBAer had a True Shooting mark of 54.3.

see that last bit there?
Monta is a below average scorer

what’s that? Moar?

Last season, their offense improved 0.51 points per 100 possessions with him resting, which isn’t much. But defensively? A staggering 6.88-points-per-100-possessions improvement.

he goes on to actually admit that you shouldn’t draw too much of a conclusion from this (notice I say “too much” rather than “no conclusion”).
But here is one of the author’s bottom lines

There’s no question Ellis can get a shot almost anytime he likes. There are numerous questions about whether that skill benefits his team.

poorly thought-out response?

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Um.. ok

So you list him in a grouping of only four guys. This may be a knock on Keith Smart, but basically, no one else is entrusted by the coach to take as many shots as Monta. On that list of six players where Monta ranks last, again, ranking last on a list of 6 superstars is not a terrible thing. Also, look at the teammate support from the players that were ahead of them. I would say that Monta is the only one that doesn’t have another major scorer next to him to keep the pressure off.

Problem with using those stats on when Monta was on the bench.. look at when he went to the bench – it was when the best player for the other team was on the bench. Monta on the bench usually ment the opponent’s second or third team was on the court.

Vlad Rad.. we got the right amount of that guy. There were a few times where he got exteneded minutes and we saw what happened. The point being, that stats don’t always put the best player on the team at the top or the worst player at the bottom.

I just really don’t think Monta gets respect for dealing with situations that most other star players don’t have to deal with. It’s just my opinion, but I think the perception most people have of Monta has more to do with poor management from the Cohan era, than of his actual abilities.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I would say that Monta is the only one that doesn’t have another major scorer next to him to keep the pressure off.

steph is a pretty elite scorer. arguing otherwise is just not logical.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow

Steph is good, and can hit shots, but he was not considered an elite scorer last year.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 6:10 PM PST up reply actions  

wow

this should be green

Steph’s offense is good, undeniable…oh wait, it is somehow deniable I guess based on…what “they” say…?

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Yup

I ignore all logic. So.. basically your’e saying that if you were building a team and needed a scorer, Steph would be at the top of your list? Or should I say, the fourth on your list?

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions  

obviously you would take the guys

with higher volume and a slightly lower efficiency than steph.

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

the logical thing is to find a balance of volume and efficiency

if a player scored 50 pts/36 at 55% TS, you would take them over steph. if a player scored 24 pts/36 at 55%TS, you would NOT take them over steph. if a player scored 19 pts/36 on 65% TS, you would take them over steph. if they scored 10 pts/36 on 65% TS, you probably wouldnt take them over steph.

the main criteria though for an elite scorer though, is that no matter how much you score, you need to score at an ABOVE AVERAGE efficiency. you could score 70 pts/36, but if it’s on terrible efficiency, you are not helping your team.

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

.. basically your’e saying that if you were building a team and needed a scorer, Steph would be at the top of your list?

the only one of those guys I’d take over Binky is DHo
( and by a huge margin) . Dirk is gettting too old and Martin too limited in talent range. I still think StepOn could be the point guard on winning team .

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Dec 21, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

monta scored a whopping 1.6 points per 36 more than steph

but it took him an extra 2.8 fg and 1.5 fts to get that 1.6 points. steph was almost certainly a better option than monta (unless you think in his next 2.8 fga and 1.5 fts, steph couldn’t score 1.6 points)

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Problem with using those stats on when Monta was on the bench.. look at when he went to the bench – it was when the best player for the other team was on the bench. Monta on the bench usually ment the opponent’s second or third team was on the court.

I would have to see some evidence to back up this assertion, because it is not consistent with my memory. If anything, I’d argue that Monta’s absurdly huge minutes load suggests the opposite: that he spend MORE time matched up against the opposing starters (and stars) than Dorell, Lee, and Curry.

Since Monta played more minutes than any top 2-guard, it suggests that he actually spent more time than his fellow-starts against the other team’s backups than they did.

Furthermore, often at that 7-8 minutes in point where a lot of teams run out a bunch of subs, a lot of Warriors came off the bench but Monta stayed in, which suggests exactly the opposite of what you allege: Monta’s stats should be inflated by virtue of playing against scrubs more so than Curry, Lee, or Dorell’s were.

(Although I grant you that you may have a point when comparing Monta to Warrior bench players).

It’s just my opinion, but I think the perception most people have of Monta has more to do with poor management from the Cohan era, than of his actual abilities.

Well, it’s not like those of us who are highly critical of Monta let Nelson or Smart off the hook. Many of us were looking forward to Smart as a coach specifically to see how Monta responded to better coaching. Of course, we didn’t get better coaching, but I suspect that the vast majority of GSOM feels that Nellie had checked out in a substantial way by his last season. Of course, Smart ended up being a terrible coach …

But it’s worth pointing out that guys like Lee and Curry remained much more committed to a team game than Monta did, with the same coaching, so you can’t lay it all at the feet of the coaches.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

sorry, typo -

first paragraph should read:

If anything, I’d argue that Monta’s absurdly huge minutes load suggests the opposite: that he spend MORE time matched up against the opposing bench starters (and stars) than Dorell, Lee, and Curry.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

No one will win this argument. You’re going off your memories and I’m going off mine. Is there a +/- that adjusts for the five players on the opposite team?

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, don't rely on memories, rely on logic:

Monta plays more minutes than the opposing star. Therefore, even if he’s on the court every minute that the opposing star is, he’s on for minutes against the backups, too. He must be, as the player playing the most minute, not only playing against the other stars.

I remember some lineups with Dorell + the second unit, too, to be fair. But again, that’s not surprising since Dorell and Monta led our team in minutes played.

To claim that Curry played fewer minutes overall but somehow more minutes against the backups – when we agree that they both started and finished most games (the time when we know the opposing starters are in) seems like a stretch. Of that middle period of the game – when backups are in – we know Monta played more minutes.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Forget it

Look, I know what I saw. Yeah, Monta would be out there against second units too, but pretty much whenever the best player for the other team was on the court, Monta would be there too.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

starters generally play against other starters

so if steph played 33 min, monta played 40, and the opposing starters played 35, it’s likely you’d see something like 27 of stephs mins against starters and 6 mins against the 2nd unit, while with monta, you would see maybe 30 mins against the starters and 10 minutes against the second unit. because on monta’s higher volume, it is very likely that he would play a greater PERCENTAGE of his time against the opposing 2nd unit than steph would

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

so.. now you’re countering my biased opinion with your own guess. Find the stat to backup that opnion, or lets just agree to disagree.

so.. now you’re countering my biased opinion with your own guess. Find the stat to backup that opnion, or lets just agree to disagree.I stand firmly in my belief that Monta’s stats are negatively affected by playing with a poorer supporting cast than his opponents, and always being on the floor against the best his opponents have to offer.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

i guess you'll love this argument

monta’s assists are inflated because he gets to play with one of the most efficient shooters in the game. steph’s assists are deflated because because he plays with an inefficient chucker ;)

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I kinda agree with this actually
I just really don’t think Monta gets respect for dealing with situations that most other star players don’t have to deal with. It’s just my opinion, but I think the perception most people have of Monta has more to do with poor management from the Cohan era, than of his actual abilities.

But be clear where you are drawing the line between evidence and opinion.

Fact: Monta’s statistics are very bad, across a number of key metrics (TS%, eFG, +/-). The relative impact is greater than it could be because he takes so many shots

opinion: this is all due to something other than Monta (such as coaching scheme, playing time, lack of better offensive options, no help D)

see, the thing is that by saying that this “has more to do with poor management from the Cohan era” you are implying that he needs to play significantly different in order to change the trend. And make no mistake, the statistical trend is not very pretty

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure

You can use whatever statistical trends you want, and sure he looks bad based on some advanced stats. But this why a lot of people fall victim to “on paper”. They fall in love with teams and players based on stats, and don’t know otherwise. The Mavericks in 2007 were supposed to destroy the Warriors, 1 seed, top scoring team in the league, etc. both those of us that went to the games, that saw the Warriors domination of the Mavericks, knew better.

Sure, you can feel good that you found evidence that supports your opinion of Monta. Just make sure that you look over that list and make sure that you agree with all of the people at the top and all of the people at the bottom. My guess is the people at the bottom of the list are mostly players on bad teams. If you want to believe that a good player would carry his team out of the dregs, go ahead, I just think that it can have a major impact.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I would strongly suggest that you take a class in rhetoric or debate/philosophy

You are trying to use circular logic here and it just doesn’t work that way

My guess is the people at the bottom of the list are mostly players on bad teams.

Circular because the bad teams suck because most of their players are not good. We would rightly expect that those guys would show up at the bottom of the barrel

also as far as “on paper” version of the Mavs Warriors matchup, I seem to recall going in that this was a favorable matchup for us. Our coach used to be their coach, Dirk had problems all year against us (we were actually 3-0 against them that year).

Yes it was a surprise, but only because of the respective team’s records, I think a lot of astute people (homers and non-homers alike) saw that it could happen…

Again, there is no statistical list of bad players. What folks who “hate” on Monta are saying is that when you look at the whole of the evidence, the most rational conclusion is that he doesn’t help his team win. I’m not talking about hitting game winners, or making tough shots as the shot clock expires; I’m talking about poor shot selection, and bad defense mostly, but also the undeniable FACT that the team generally plays better when Monta is not on the court

I still root for him to play better. Even knowing those long twos early in the shot clock are killers, I still really really enjoy watching Monta play. Everyone cheers for Monta, I’ve never heard him boo’d

But admitting that his play has been a net negative has got absolutely nothing to do with being a bad fan, not supporting your team or any of the other BS people seem to complain about. All folks are doing is accepting reality.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Whoa!

Bullshit, if you keep trying to push the stats as the only way to evaluate someone, and to conitnuously stress that’s the only thing that matters in evaluating Monta, then you can’t start throwing out subjective opinions. Why were you able to make a subjective opionion on why the Warriors were better, despite all the stats proving otherwise, but in this case, stats are the only thing that matter?

My point was, looking at the list that you provided, there are some players at the bottom of the list that myself and many others would think are great players, but are penalized because the numbers are reflective of the team’s performance, and the team did poorly.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

alright, it's been nice chatting

I’m done with you.

a.) you clearly are unable to follow a logical debate
b.) even if you were, I don’t think it is possible to change your mind

Also,I would never, ever say this

conitnuously stress that’s the only thing [stats] that matters in evaluating Monta, then you can’t start throwing out subjective opinions.

I am firmly of the opinion that stats don’t tell the whole story (since they are a reflection of what happened, not WHY they happened). And I’ve mentioned before that it’s not like people are reading off of a list of NBA players that suck and saying “yep, there’s Monta at number 15”…there is some analysis happening. Yes, it is my subjective opinion that the numbers are a true reflection of Monta’s impact on the team. And yes, it is my opinion that the numbers might be a little off, but still mostly accurate, especially when we are looking at a few different key indicators

You see Monta’s numbers and are then trying to come up with explanations of why they are incorrect – and this is the giant cornerstone of your whole argument – but it just doesn’t hold water. Because you see, the burden is actually on you to disprove.

I do think the numbers may be a little worse on Monta than he actually is. But I/you cannot prove it. And more importantly, exactly how far off do you expect them to be? Because even if they are waaaaaay off, it just means Monta is sub-par, instead of extremely crappy.

Since you have a problem with this, I’ll give you a challenge. Show me a player you consider to be great who has similar shooting percentage (TS%) and adjusted +/- over any three year span. For now, I’ll just give you the whole defense thing, let’s JUST talk about his impact on the offensive end (where Monta should supposedly be up near the top). Let’s say an average of 30 minutes a game to keep it limited to starters

And finally, “subjective opinion” on the Mavs/Warrriors???
Every time we played that team during the season we beat them…I think it is actually a pretty objective conclusion to assume we would beat them in a series

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I follow the logic

But don’t agree…

You have supported most of your opinions with stats, and are trying to claim that my subjectivity is leading to a poor opinion. I am trying to prove that their are occassions when subjectivity matters, and there is a reason we play the games, rather than just hand out the hardware to start a season.

Looking at adjusted +/- lists from the past, you see a lot of the top players at the top and bad players at the bottom, but you do get some head scratchers like Rip Hamilton being the worst player in the league for 2006, while Brent Barry and Kirk Snyder were in the top 20. Looking at list that has done a two year adjusted +/- you see familiar names at the top but then you have Nick Collison and Andre Miller in the top ten. Kobe doesn’t crack the top 25. Kyle Korver and Jodie Meeks rank in the top 50. Jermaine Oneal and Matt Bonner rank ahead of Kobe and Jason Kidd.

I love to hate on the Lakers, and would love for Curry to be better than Kobe, as these stats would suggest, but I just don’t believe it.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobe doesn’t crack the top 25.

A lot of us have been talking about how Kobe’s been overrated for several years. His shot has fallen off, his decision-making has gotten worse, and he has a bad tendency to stop all the ball movement on the team. His defense effort has become intermittent, at best.

+/- supports what our eyes tell us (Kobe has lost some explosiveness and become more of a jump shooter) but it also tracks what a bunch of other stats show:

His efficiency has fallen off from his peak. His blocks are down (reflecting a drop in his speed and hops on defense). His minutes are down in an effort to preserve his legs.

So it’s not like +/- is totally in a void there. But, of course, nobody is saying that it’s perfect – which is fine. You can make an argument that it’s wrong. I think everybody here is willing to concede that in can be misleading at times.

But then you have to ask yourself, why is it misleading? Can you come up with a hypothesis that explains the problem?

And every time somebody does, in Monta’s case, we hit a brick wall because those hypotheses fail. For example, defense. People like to point out how Monta doesn’t have good defensive help. While that’s true, that should also show up in Curry and Dorell’s +/- numbers … and yet it doesn’t. If it was a fluke, we would expect to see something like Monta’s efg% being better than his opponent’s efg% – and yet the data on 82gams.com shows us just the opposite: Monta’s opponents light him up.

People keep trotting out these hypothesis which fail under closer examination.

But, ultimately, this shouldn’t be surprising. Why? Simple. Because we know Monta is bad at defense. We know he’s a mediocre-efficiency player who takes a lot of shots. We know those things contribute to losing basketball.

So why shouldn’t they contribute to losing basketball in Monta’s case?

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

thanks Ronaldinho

this is a nice place to leave it

we know Monta is bad at defense. We know he’s a mediocre-efficiency player who takes a lot of shots. We know those things contribute to losing basketball.

So why shouldn’t they contribute to losing basketball in Monta’s case?

this is the real question, not whether or not someone can come up with a list of 10 guys who are “better” (which, by the way happened and was ignored/disputed)

Wade, Kobe, Manu, Afflalo, Gordon, Allen, Joe Johnson, Iguodala. It gets debatable after that, but one could probably make an argument for Kevin Martin. Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Jason Terry, and (just for fun) Steph Curry.

"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I'll have to look it up

I would rather have Monta over Manu, Afflalo, Gordon, Johnson, Martin, Evans, Harden, and Terry.

Anybody that needs to play against the second to get going like the “sixth man” Manu or Terry, shouldn’t be considered elite. Haven’t seen enough of Afflalo or Harden to think that he can step in and be the main guy on a team. Martin seems to be a fine player, but relies to much on the refs for my taste. Evans.. not a fan of his game or attitude.. could just be that he plays for the Kings. Gordon, had the sixth man thing going for him in Chicago, and I have yet to see him doing anything good with Detroit.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 22, 2011 3:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Anybody that needs to play against the second to get going like the "sixth man" Manu

You obviously don’t pay attention to basketball. Manu started 79 games last year

Haven’t seen enough of Afflalo or Harden to think that he can step in and be the main guy on a team.

As has been pointed out, Monta has shown that he is not good at being the main guy on a team as well, so this is not an argument in favor of Monta.

Martin seems to be a fine player, but relies to much on the refs for my taste.

Martin is elite at drawing fouls. Monta is not. Drawing fouls help in many ways as well. Not only do you get to attempt the most efficient shot in basketball (assuming you don’t suck at fts, and kevin martin doesn’t), you also get your team 1 foul closer to the bonus, and the opposing player 1 foul closer to fouling out. Good things happen when you can draw fouls.

Evans.. not a fan of his game or attitude.. could just be that he plays for the Kings.

So your personal dislike of a player and playing for the Kings make them not as good as a player you like? Come on man, this one is actually arguable if you tried.

Gordon, had the sixth man thing going for him in Chicago, and I have yet to see him doing anything good with Detroit.

Did you really think he was talking about Ben Gordon? Clearly he meant Eric Gordon, who is clearly better than Monta, and it’s not even really arguable.

by bigkino217 on Dec 22, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes. Stats are bad as are math, science, philosophy, geology and all forms of engineering. Bad.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, sports and engineering are virtuatlly the same thing

Stats are great for areas where calculations and numbers mean something. Hell, they are useful in possibly pointing out somethings you don’t look for, but, this is team sports where there is a lot of uncertainty and certain variables are almost impossible to isolate.

I still think that once you have a list of stats, you still need to see the action to confirm or deny the assumptions. I have found in any of those lists anomolies and have cited a few of them as examples.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 22, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Statistics is a science, actually. It’s actually very, very useful.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm well aware of statistics

Not sure what you’re going for here. I’m saying that sports has more elements than just statistics. The games are played for a reason.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 22, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

agreed

stats are just reflections of past information. Some of them tend to be good at predicting the future, but we really can’t know for sure what’s going to happen…however, we can know the odds/probabilities.

the odds are Monta does not help the team win. It’s not even close

The games are played for a reason.

let me guess, you didn’t watch the video I posted above on the Monte hall “paradox”. I’m trying again, here click this and watch
let me ask you this: would you switch doors, or stick with your original choice?

"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 23, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

I still think that once you have a list of stats, you still need to see the action to confirm or deny the assumptions.

Based on your previous comments, it seems like you don’t get that in addition to looking at statistics, it’s highly likely that we watch more basketball than you do. What makes what you see, which is not backed by statistics, a better judge of what helps a team win than what we see, which IS backed by statistics.

by bigkino217 on Dec 22, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Um..

I have had season tickets for six (now seven) years and rarely miss a game, so I’m going to say that I watch enough. What I’ve tried to say is that the stats are great to start an opinion, but you have to see the games to back it up. In some cases the numbers don’t match up to the actual game being played.

It comes down to I’ve seen Monta have some amazing moments, and many moments where I’ve wondered damn, just how much better could he be if he had the right amount of support around him. How many of those crazy plays would turn out differently? How many of those bad shots would be passes? I understand that for you guys, all you focus on is those moments, and feel like those are the reason we’re losing. As I’ve stated in many places on this post, I think the bad stats for Monta are more of a victim of circumstance, rather than a true reflection of his game. This will probably be something we disagree on unless the Warriors get dramatically better or the more likely case, Monta goes to another team.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 22, 2011 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

you watch enough of the WARRIORS

you don’t watch enough of other players to see how monta compares to them

by bigkino217 on Dec 22, 2011 5:53 PM PST up reply actions  

we've all seen monta play

but i’m sure people that watch all of the other players play have a better point of comparison. and again, the stats back that up

by bigkino217 on Dec 22, 2011 5:54 PM PST up reply actions  

you've got it backwards
What I’ve tried to say is that the stats are great to start an opinion, but you have to see the games to back it up.

in my opinion, stats should be used to confirm if your opinions are correct or not….a sort of middle-of-the-road check-in point, rather than a starting or ending point.

for what it’s worth, I had to be convinced about Monta (but am still a big fan of his)…the guy known around here as “Gov Steph Curry” used to be “Monta D Boss” or something

In some cases the numbers don’t match up to the actual game being played.

nope, there is no way this can be true.
what is happening is that the numbers don’t conform to your preconceptions, so you reject them

I think the bad stats for Monta are more of a victim of circumstance, rather than a true reflection of his game.

I don’t dispute that this has an impact in his numbers (the drop in rebounding comes to mind – I think Nellie had him start running out on the breaks instead of getting boards).

It’s a matter of scale though. Other guys play similar minutes (see DWright last year) and seem to do ok….Monta goes down, Steph is asked to do more, and his numbers actually improve (along with the rest of the team).

your conclusion on this issue is inherently ignoring almost all the objective evidence. Which is prefectly ok for a fan to do, but you have to recognize that you are hoping he does better, rather than disproving that his play has been detrimental to the team

"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 23, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions  

After all those games, you didn’t notice how Monta doesn’t move his feet on defense, has short arms takes too many bad shots and has had a tendency to hinder ball movement?

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 24, 2011 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

So for your examples, you examples, you can only go off your biased memories.

This is a funny argument for the anti-stats guy to be bringing up.

Because the funny thing is that the stats agree with my memories of the game, but they don’t agree with yours. If you agree that our memories are flawed … well, what do you recommend we do other than take your word for it?

Because you admit that memories are flawed, right?

Or are you only claiming that my memories are flawed?

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 11:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not anti stats

I just think that watching a game should have a significant influence on your opinion.. since that seemingly is the point of all of this. You are right.. you hate Monta so you’ll remember the two or three shots he jacked up early in the shot clock. I love Monta so I’ll remember the crazy drives to the basket that happened after he had no other option with 3 seconds ont he shot clock. There are a lot of stats at there, but ultimately they’re still developed by a person trying to explain what they saw out there, and trying adjust for their interpretations. To me, I haven’t found a statistical tool that captures enough data abandon what I’ve seen for what’s on the paper.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

none of us hate monta

you don’t seem to understand that

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

we ALL wish he was a good player

but the fact is, talented as he may be, he hurts our team more than he helps.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't "hate" Monta.

I just don’t think he contributes to winning basketball games.

To the extent that my attitude (wanting to see him traded for a better player) could be described as hate, you have it backwards. I don’t dislike the way Monta plays because I “hate” him. I “hate” him because the way he plays doesn’t contribute to winning.

Playing losing basketball came first.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

love Monta so I’ll remember the crazy drives to the basket that happened after he had no other option with 3 seconds ont he shot clock.

I love Monta too, and I remember those plays as well.
But (without looking at a box score) how good are you at knowing a players actual stats from a game? Try it tonight

Maybe it’s just me, but whenever I play the game of trying to guess the box score, I’m usually way off on something major. Monta could blow up in the 4th quarter, but go 7-21 overall. Or have a few good games, followed by a horrendous stinker.

Players all have ups and downs, no one is trying to say they can predict exactly what Monta’s shooting percentage will be on a given night. That’s why the statistical analysis is important. The stats are telling us that in spite of all of his awesome plays on offense and defense the net effect he has on the team is not good. That’s just what the numbers say.

and I get that you don’t trust this stuff

To me, I haven’t found a statistical tool that captures enough data abandon what I’ve seen for what’s on the paper.

but you see…the thing is, the statistics are in fact capturing all the data.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe it’s just me, but whenever I play the game of trying to guess the box score, I’m usually way off on something major. Monta could blow up in the 4th quarter, but go 7-21 overall. Or have a few good games, followed by a horrendous stinker.

case in point preseason game 1. i watched the entire game and felt like steph really hadn’t done much, only to look up and see a 22/6/6 stat line in 31 minutes

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Right

But some of those things do matter. There is a mental part to the game. If a guy got your attention on the floor, he probably got the attention of the defenders as well.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

sure

but how much does that really matter?

I’m not sure where it went, but there was a pretty interesting analysis done towards the end of last season that showed DWright shooting much better off of assists from Monta versus Steph. (I think the results were not statistically significant, or there was a sample size issue or something; but still interesting)

I think there may be some benefits like this when Monta plays, but overall, it is really an uphill argument to assert that this kind of stuff outweighs Monta’s effect on the team offense and defense

The thing is, I’m perfectly willing to change my opinion. But you are not making a very strong case (IMO) that the metrics aren’t good at showing what a player has done while on the court – or how the team does without him

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Plus/minus LITERALLY misses none of the action. It’s an account of every single basketball play expressed in very simple to read terms.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Except, in team game, where you have 5 players on one side and 5 on the other, it can blame a guy for points scored by mismatches that a player is not responsible for, and blame a guy for his teammates not helping with the offense. It can be a misleading tool that favors garbage time performers and maligns good players who play on bad teams.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 11:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Which, in the short run, is a big problem. But in the long run, those things even out for the most part. A bad pass made by a teammate in Game 2 will be made up for by a lucky shot by a teammate in Game 24.

Problem solved.

by belilaugh on Dec 20, 2011 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm glad I made this post.

Really got some discussion going, and I’m glad at least some of us appreciate Monta’s skills. And I believe my point has been made- no one has provided a list of 10 SG’s that are better than Monta.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 3:53 PM PST reply actions  

A main reason for the hate

is that Monta is black, tatted, and straight out of a high school in the deep south. He has insane speed, quickness, leaping ability, etc.

GSOM is full of nerds who say “if I had what Monta has, I’d be the best player in the NBA.”

They gravitate towards Curry because he makes plays with his basketball IQ rather than athleticism and makes less stupid plays (I guess they miss his foul trouble, anyway).

And by the way, the fact that his shortcomings are mental makes it at least possible for him to figure it all out and maximize his potential. This is better than not having the potential in the first place, contrary to some people’s opinions.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM PST reply actions  

Oh, so we're all racists now.
is that Monta is black, tatted, and straight out of a high school in the deep south. He has insane speed, quickness, leaping ability, etc.

My dad’s from the South, most of my friends have tats.

Try again. We don’t like him because his style of play doesn’t actually win basketball games.

Did you ever play hoops – or any sport – with someone like that?

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I am a high school varsity starter.

And yes, I definitely have played with people like that. But I have always thought of them as net positives.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Ex.

A player who shot 74/230 on threes (32%) having about 25 of those makes coming in 3 big games.

Not a great style, right?

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

And ok, I take back the race thing.

Not really called for and it doesn’t matter anyways. I’ll amend it to GSOM members being generally prejudiced against the physically gifted, worse decision-maker Monta.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

meh

for me, it’s all about getting more buckets than you give up

but I’m more of a post player, so my guy right now is Udoh (and my never dying hope that Biedrens returns)

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 19, 2011 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Defense is all about bigs!

Udoh looked good in the preseason game. He showed us that, oh wait, it IS possible for NBA players to do basic post moves and finish hahaha. And the challenging shots part helps us.

Beans looks really buff now. I don’t know if that will change anything. He didn’t show much in this particular game

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 5:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Why do you think we're opposed to his physical gifts?

LeBron is one of the most physically gifted players I’ve ever seen, and he’s a joy to watch. I was a huge fan of MJ – again, amazingly physically gifted.

The notion that somehow we’re down on Monta because of his physical gifts is absurd.

We’re down on him because he hurts the basketball team. That’s not prejudice. That’s wanting to see the team win.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 19, 2011 11:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Eh..

I don’t think it’s quite there. I would agree that the tats and attitude are a reason the refs don’t do him any favors. I think the hate is more of a product of scapegoating. He is the primary figure on a team that has (save for two years) been terrible for the past 16 years. The fans need someone to target their ire on, and logically focus on the guy with the ball most of the time. Curry gets the kid gloves treatment because he is the “future”, a possibility of hope, while they see Monta and remember the terrible years.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I think that's true about Curry.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 19, 2011 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t think there’s hate. I think hate is a word that simple minded people use when someone disagrees with them.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure

that someone saying “Monta has never moved his feet to stay in front of an opponent on defense” would be categorized as hate, lol

it’s like saying Biedrins has never made a free throw. there’s no other reason to say either of those things unless you’re just trying to make the player look bad. what other motive could there be other than hate? i think this thread is a bit out of place, and that for the most part, the main proponents aren’t making good arguments, but there’s stupid on both sides of the argument

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 5:23 PM PST up reply actions  

it’s like saying Biedrins has never made a free throw

even a blind squirrel can find a nut once

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Dec 20, 2011 9:08 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

yeah

doesn’t stop people from telling lies about players they don’t like

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 11:56 PM PST up reply actions  

hahahaha!!
rec’d

but crying because it’s so true

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I love Monta. Monta has not been a good player for the Warriors.

Did I just blow your mind?

by belilaugh on Dec 20, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

monta Ellis is the future

It’s sad that so many posters on this site don’t see it this way

by maryjane on Dec 19, 2011 5:00 PM PST reply actions  

sigh..

sadly, he’s probably the future for someone else. I still think Jerry West was brought in primarily to help resolve the Curry/Monta situation, and it’s pretty clear the team would rather keep Curry.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 19, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions  

What’s sad is that, despite the mountains of evidence, so many people agree with you. The state of sports analysis is like that, though. RINGZ and Tim Tebows and what have you.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 19, 2011 10:26 PM PST up reply actions  

really?

I would never build around a player who doesn’t play much defense and is inefficient on offense.

by jpees on Dec 19, 2011 11:41 PM PST up reply actions  

it sucks

Coz noone on this team plays with so much heart. When he goes currys gonna cruise off in a couple of years to Charlotte.. We’ll be back to square one again… Sux hey.

by maryjane on Dec 19, 2011 5:20 PM PST reply actions  

Is Reggie better?

No, but is he more efficient? I would say yes. I didn’t like how Monta would hold the ball and prevent fluid movement. I didn’t like how Monta drove into the lane, avoiding contact and initiating fast breaks for the opposing teams. If Monta plays in his role (imo he should be a sixth man, he would be perfect), the team will play better. It seems that he’s more of a passer this season (because of interviews and the first preseason game) and understands that he has to take fewer shots.

by jpees on Dec 19, 2011 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

He is definitely a top 10 shooting guard, and I challenge commenters who disagree to provide a list of 10 better shooting guards

This is a team game so the number of shooting guards that played on teams with better records than Montay’s team is what really matters. The general stats for one position player don’t mean anything if the team is not winning. Your task is to figure out how trading Montay could benefit the team more than his raw stats can?

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Dec 19, 2011 6:25 PM PST reply actions  

Thank you!

This is what I’ve been trying to argue. People here just have the blind hate and then run out to stats pages to find the numbers that support the hate.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:51 AM PST up reply actions  

LOL@Blind hate. We’re looking at and analyzing stats. Stats and discussion and reason are partly what convinced me that Monta is not helping us win. Of course, the fact that we kept losing, the fact that ball movement tended to become dead with him on the floor and the fact that when he got injured, we started to win also convinced me. Of course, his lack of lateral movement is self-evident. If you can’t see that, YOU are the blind one. The dude couldn’t stop me from driving to the basket, and I’m not even fast.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah, I call BS

Monta would own you, dude
unless you have played pro or semi pro or something, no way you are good enough to take an NBA player to the hole

I’m guessing you wouldn’t even get a dribble in

….although:

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I think most people really don't know how good even NBA scrubs are.

Jae told me a story once, from his NC days, about two end-of-bench guys getting ragged on by the dudes who played pickup every day about not getting any playing time. These two guys – who couldn’t get off the bench at UNC – challenged the two best of the pickup players to a two-on-two game.

And the pickup guys couldn’t even get a pass off.

When you consider that those guys couldn’t hold a candle to even mediocre NBA players … well.

Monta has quick hands. I think he’d pick the pocket of most non-NBA players when we tried to drive by him. (As with a lot of gifted athletes, his quick hands are a blessing and a curse. They’re a blessing because, hey, quick hands are good. But they’re a curse because I think they encourage him to gamble for steals – if he wasn’t so good at getting steals, he probably wouldn’t gamble for them so much, which would help the team more than the steals he gets do).

Not having quick lateral movement by NBA guard standards (which Monta doesn’t) is a far cry from not having quick lateral movement by non-professional-athlete standards. I would be shocked if any GSOMer could get a shot off against Monta with any consistency, unless somebody here is 6’8 and could just shoot over him.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 10:47 AM PST up reply actions  

yeah

I mean, I played in high school, but couldn’t make the college team (even at a small school)

I play pickup sometimes with a couple of guys who were AAU, played some college, one went pro in Chile for a bit. It’s laughable how much better they are than anybody else. And neither was even remotely close to NBA bench level

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I still think that Monta’s defensive style has more to do with Nellie-ball, that basically for his entire career he’s been taught, save your energy for the offense, if you can score as much as your opponent and get a couple of extra baskets from steals, you should win.

I just don’t think Monta has ever been on a team that really focussed on defense and had the personnel to do so.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 21, 2011 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait, is that Nash? lol

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 22, 2011 8:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Against Monta, I would probably just get it stolen from me. I’ll give him that. But historically, he’s garbage at defending a decent slasher.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

You, even if the best among your friends at basketball

would not be considered a decent slasher.

And no, it would not just me stolen. He’d stay in front of you. Easily. Just as he would probably every poster on this forum.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 22, 2011 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Judging by how he just stands still on defense, I think I could drive past him. Not that I’m good or anything, but he just stands still most of the time.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 24, 2011 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

So what you're suggesting...

is that Keith Bogans was the best shooting guard in the league last year, because he started 82 games for the #1 seeded Bulls.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 20, 2011 11:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Let's Try (and fail)

In no particular order: Wade, Affalo, Kobe, Joe Johnson, Iguodala, Wes Matthews, Eric Gordon are better than Monta.
I think we can only say definitively that there are 7 players better than Monta. However, arguments could be made for Kevin Martin, Tony Allen, Ray Allen, and James Harden being better. To be fair, I do not have problem with top ten. If Monta plays the season like he played the last game he would be top 5 (THIS IS PROBABLY MENTIONED BECAUSE OF MY HOMERISM)

by pericles31081 on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 PM PST reply actions  

sorry

I like defense. Maybe he’s not better just yet, I think he will be in the near future.

by jpees on Dec 20, 2011 7:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I really want to see Afflalo and Matthews try to be primary ball handlers, defensive stoppers and go-to scorers. That would be a joy to watch.

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 12:28 AM PST up reply actions  

the thing is

monta isnt good at doing that either, so you’re argument holds no meaning

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 8:39 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

it was an implied argument

anyone who can read can tell that you were posting that in response to a list of players he thought was better than monta. by making your statement, you are implying that you think those players aren’t better than monta because they cant do those things. but if monta can’t do it either, it is a meaningless statement.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions  

if there was an argument

“i think darren collison is better than jeremy lin”
“i’d like to see darren collison be the primary ball handler, defensive stopper, and be the go-to scorer. that would be a joy to watch.” <—- what is the meaning of this statement?? it has no relevance to the prior statement unless you are using it to argue against the initial statement.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 10:51 AM PST up reply actions  

no it wasn't

I didn’t argue that Monta was good at those things, I just stated what he was asked to do regardless of his ability to do so.

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

so if afflalo and matthews are asked to do that and fail, what does that mean?

it means absolutely nothing. meaning that your statement was irrelevant

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 11:12 AM PST up reply actions  

it means that roles matter

and that succeeding in a much smaller role does not make you better than someone failing in a larger one

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 5:29 PM PST up reply actions  

yes but my point is

just because other players can’t do it, it doesn’t mean monta is any better because he can’t do it effectively.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 5:45 PM PST up reply actions  

no it doesn't.

but it also doesn’t mean he’s worse. that kind of comparison is a very difficult one to make

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 21, 2011 12:01 AM PST up reply actions  

i wasn't using it as an arguing point about monta

i was using it as an arguing point about how his statement was irrelevant.

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 7:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I posted this in another thread, but it seems relevant here:

Comparing Afflalo and MOnta:

Afflalo shot with a .620 TS%, scoring 13.4 pts/36 on 10.8 possessions (fga+.44*FTA)
Monta shot with a .536 TS%, scoring 21.5 pts/36 on 20.1 possessions.

Let’s say we asked Afflalo to take all the shots he’s currently taking, plus keep creating additional shots until he scored 21.5 pts/36.

So we’re asking him to score 8.1 more points. So long as he uses fewer than 9.3 possessions to do it, he’s unambiguously scoring better than Monta.

8.1 pts on 9.3 possessions = TS% of .435. That’s worse than Jeff Adrien of Jeremy Lin last season. The only Warrior worse than that the previous year (when we kept bringing in D-leaguers because of injuries) was Coby Karl.

That’s worse than Cartier Martin or Vladamir Radmanovic from 09-10. It’s worse than Chris Webber during his injured/could barely move upa nd down the court comeback with the Warriors.

In other words, it seems highly likely that if Afflalo decided to shoot as much as Monta shoots, he could probably do so and be as effective as Monta is. Now, I’m not saying I think he should do that, but if you actually look at how bad he’d have to be in order for the "Afflalo can’t do what Monta does" argument to hold water, all of a sudden it’s not such a convincing argument.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

lol u just dont get it

because in changing roles, you just add shots to your total

the whole idea is shots become more difficult when you’re the top dog, hence Afflalo’s TS% would drop not just in an additional 9 shots but, in his original 10 as well. LOL at only having it effect half of his shots

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 21, 2011 12:00 AM PST up reply actions  

what he's saying is afflalo can play exactly as he does now

except throw in a couple more shots where he would normally be passing, and it’s likely he can reach monta’s volume on higher efficiency. nothing about being the top dog

by bigkino217 on Dec 21, 2011 7:33 AM PST up reply actions  

his role wouldn't have really changed then?

you can’t just ADD shots. to significantly increase your shot attempts, you’ve got to change how you play. get the ball more often, and as you said, shoot the ball more often. as that happens, the defense will start to pay more attention to you, now expecting you to put the ball on the floor or shoot it rather than swing it around the perimeter. they will certainly play better defense against you. therefore, you would see an effect across all of his shot attempts, rather than just the additional ones he takes.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 21, 2011 10:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd like to see some evidence to support the claim that defenses put more effort into stopping Monta than Afflalo.

I call BS. Neither of them gets the real “we need to stop this guy” treatment – doubling away from the ball, box-and-one, or rapid double-teams the moment they get the ball to force it out of their hands.

The ball passes through Afflalo’s hands a lot, because Denver has very good ball movement (especially since the Carmelo trade). He absolutely could take the shots he takes now and just take a few more. He doesn’t do that because he’s committed to the team offense, which makes sense – they’re one of the best offenses in the NBA.

And that says something. Denver actually had the best offense in the league last year, even post-Carmelo. After Carmelo left (and their offense stayed just as good when he did) they didn’t have any great “shot creator” – and yet they just kept on trucking with nobody scoring more than 17 a game.

One would think that they would have a hard time creating shots. After all, that’s the knock on guys like Afflalo, right, that they can’t create shots? And Nene, well, he’s not really a franchise offensive guy, right, at 14.5 ppg.

How do they do it! If only they had a player like Monta!

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 11:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I didn't say you need a Monta

or a Kobe, Wade, or James either, for that matter.

A balanced offense is clearly the best option when you don’t have one of those guys. And George Karl is one of the best offensive coaches in the NBA. I still remember his Seattle teams, and the great job he did there. He’s been a great offensive coach in nearly every stop, no matter his personnel.

The thing with Afflao to me, is that we didn’t get a real good look at him post-Carmelo. If he had been healthy, I think we might have seen him actually increase his role to that of a 16-20 point output.

You said you want evidence that he defenses react differently to the two players, but I’m not sure what you’re expecting from me. That’s the type of thing you can only pick up from watching games. I understand that you’ve long been a proponent that type of treatment is negligible outside the NBA’s very best players, and not existent in Monta’s case, but that’s not how I view it.

Watching Afflalo, I feel like he gets a lot of his opportunities as a cutter away from the ball, setting up on the perimeter for a kick out, or getting out on the fast break. And there’s nothing wrong with that type of offense. It’s a great thing to have. I like the way he plays, and I think he’s flourished under Karl after a frustrating first two seasons in Detroit. But you’re certainly not going to face as much defense as Monta does. The isolations, pick and rolls, and quick give-and-gos Monta is a part of are examples of situations where Monta is the primary initiator of the offense that Afflalo just doesn’t see many of.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 22, 2011 8:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd be curious to see Afflalo's synergy numbers.

Because the comaprison of Monta and Steph on isos demonstrates how our perception can be really wrong about that stuff.

My perception about the defenses Monta faces aren’t just based on what I feel teams implement, but also on my observation of the games – I simply don’t see those strategies employed. A great example would be on either of the game winning/tying shots he hit in January last year – particularly the second one where he let the clock run down and the defense had plenty of time to throw whatever scheme they want on him.

Certainly once the season gets started and we’re talking in game threads, I invite you to point out speific examples of the kind of thing you’re talking about. I’m certainly open to the possibility that my perception is wrong, but I’ve been looking for it.

Yes, the defense collapses when Monta drives. And I think they do a good job of collapsing on him because he telegraphs his drives often – the defense is usually set, meaning that help defenders are basically waiting for him rather than struggling to follow their man. Also he’s not a particularly willing passer so teams don’t really get burned for collapsing on him.

But I really do feel like that’s a function of his play rather than defensive schemes put in by the opposition. I mean it, though, I really do welcome you to point out specific things you think defenses are doign to slow him down, because if I’m wrong about this I’d like to improve my knowledge and understanding. I don’t think I am wrong, but then again, who does? :)

by Ronaldinho on Dec 23, 2011 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

No one really gets that treatment.

Unless it’s the playoffs, anyway.

Teams don’t put in specific game plans for regular season opponents. There’s no time.

by Spider Jerusalem on Dec 23, 2011 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

First of all, it's largely not true.

Teams don’t game-plan significantly for each other during the regular season. There simply isn’t practice time to implement anything complex.

Secondly, Monta didn’t receive any special attention last year, except insomuch as his play often made it very easy for him to be double-teamed (because he drove not in the flow of the offense, but rather when they were set).

Third, to claim Monta was playing through some strange “top dog” penalty when, when sharing the court with Curry, he shot a whole 1 extra time every 12 minutes they were on the floor is pretty much absurd.

Monta’s TS was low not because of crazy defenses thrown at him, but because of his own poor decision-making and his relative inability to get to the line. Those two factors have nothing to do with being the “top dog.” Monta’s fans need to stop pretending that his struggles any the responsibility of anyone other than him.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

+1
to claim Monta was playing through some strange "top dog" penalty when, when sharing the court with Curry, he shot a whole 1 extra time every 12 minutes they were on the floor is pretty much absurd.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:38 AM PST up reply actions  

I didn't mention any crazy defenses lol

You don’t need a complicated scheme to try to take the ball out a players’ hands. You send a double team, or a trap, which often occurs naturally in the teams primary defensive set. It’s even something you can come up with before or during the game. “Put more pressure on (that guy).” Simple

I mean, there’s a reason Kobe, Wade, LeBron and other stars see double teams and James Jones does not, or even why Rodney Stuckey for the most part, does not. Offense DOES get harder when you’re the guy the defense expects to take the most shots.

Since this was based on his comparison to West or Afflalo, the “top dog” label does apply, because, for one, he is the Warriors top dog on offense, or at least was last season, and two because they are definitely not.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 21, 2011 10:32 PM PST up reply actions  

You don’t need a complicated scheme to try to take the ball out a players’ hands. You send a double team, or a trap, which often occurs naturally in the teams primary defensive set. It’s even something you can come up with before or during the game. "Put more pressure on (that guy)." Simple

And yet this didn’t largely happen with Monta. You didn’t see these tactics applied to him last year any more than you saw them applied to anyone else. Yes, the defense would collapse when he penetrated, but they do that on any penetrating player.

If you’re going to allege that these tactics are the reason why it’s harder to score when you’re Monta Ellis, you’re going to have to explain why they showed up very rarely in our games. Monta was not particularly pressured on the perimeter in a way that suggests that the other team wanted the ball out of his hands.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 11:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not of the belief they show up rarely.

I think teams collapse much harder on Monta than even on Steph, let alone the teams role players. For example, Dorell can dribble the ball as high as his chest and not have it taken away as he enters the key, but Monta usually has 2, and often 3 defenders around him at that point. And I recall Monta actually getting trapped a lot when he goes baseline, as well as opposing bigs hedging him on pick and rolls as hard as they would if it was Chris Paul or Deron Williams. Maybe I’m the only one who sees this. We clearly don’t agree on this aspect of Warrior games.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 22, 2011 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

oh, I think we mostly agree

we are just arguing over causation

yes, Monta usually has 2-3 defenders on him a lot of the time he enters the paint. Not because they are necessarily soooo scared of what’s going to happen, but because they are so damn sure that Monta is going to put that shot up, no matter what…that’s a big problem. If the other team knows you are going to take it to the hole, and you do (no matter what), chances are that you are going to end up taking a tough shot

"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 23, 2011 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

We stood around a lot on offense last year.

Iso’s work far less when you don’t have guys moving around to get open. I don’t think he should be shooting it every time, because sometimes when he did, somebody was open, but other times, he drives in, and ends up with no one to pass to. Because he IS our best basket attacker, he suffered the consequences of our lack of offensive motion most.

I don’t ever want him to lose that mentality, though, and so many people say he puts his head down and gets to the rim with no other options. His problem isn’t at the rim. Once he gets past the defense he is a GREAT finisher. He shoots 69% at the rim and we all know he creates most of his at-the-rim baskets himself just from watching. What guards really compare to him as driving scorer? Dwyane Wade and Tony Parker are the only ones that come to mind as far as amount and ability to create it for themselves.

Kevin Martin and Andre Iguodala also come to mind, but Martin gets a significant amount of his points in the paint off good back-door cuts, and Iguodala just doesn’t go to the rim enough when he was the ball. Derrick Rose and Westbrook don’t finish as well when they get there, but I think they do a lot more creation on their own and face at least as much defense.

Monta’s issue is the in-between. As he’s driving, if he gets cut off is where he struggles. That’s something I think can really be improved by running more rolls to the basket with our bigs and with better perimeter player motion. He forces himself into too many contested, off-the dribble 2s from mid-range or just outside the lane that pretty much any player in the NBA would struggle with.

Even as a 3-point shooter, he’s pretty good. He creates those for himself all the time as well. The only shooting guard I can really think of who shoots more 3

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 24, 2011 3:31 AM PST up reply actions  

He shoots 69% at the rim and we all know he creates most of his at-the-rim baskets himself just from watching. What guards really compare to him as driving scorer? Dwyane Wade and Tony Parker are the only ones that come to mind as far as amount and ability to create it for themselves.

Kevin Martin and Andre Iguodala also come to mind, but Martin gets a significant amount of his points in the paint off good back-door cuts, and Iguodala just doesn’t go to the rim enough when he was the ball. Derrick Rose and Westbrook don’t finish as well when they get there, but I think they do a lot more creation on their own and face at least as much defense.

monta needs to get to the line more. every player you mentioned here gets to the line at a higher rate than monta, so they can finish at the rim with a lower percentage and still be more efficient.

by bigkino217 on Dec 24, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions  

, he drives in, and ends up with no one to pass to.

This happens because’s he doesn’t usually look for someone to pass to until he’s up in the air without a shot.

If you compare how Monta drives to how, say, Rose drives, you’ll notice something: Rose often has an idea of where he’s going to go with the ball if he can’t get a shot before he drives.

You’ll see him angle his drive a tiny bit towards the defender he wants to draw.

Monta, on the other hand, drives with his head down and tends do to look around for a pass until he’s up in the air. If somebody’s wide open and in his eyeline when he does look up, he’ll find them – but often it requires more awarenesss than that. It’s not exactly the same thing, but look at how Nash weaves through the defense with his head up constantly – when a guy starts to cheat, Nash is aware of it.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 24, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions  

I feel like Rose has less idea where he’s going than Monta does, unless of course it’s the rim. He throws the most passes from mid-air that I’ve ever seen.

And in no way would I ever compare Monta to Nash, especially since Nash shoots like once per game from inside the paint. When he drives, he almost never has the intention of scoring (personally, I feel, the biggest detriment to his game). Also Nash is one of the best passing PGs of all-time, and yes, Monta could learn to use some of his or others tactics, but scorers mentality will always be so much different than that of someone like Nash or Kidd

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 25, 2011 3:31 AM PST up reply actions  

cont

is Wade, who is actually a pretty poor long range shooter because of it.

As a 3-point shooter, Monta compares well with all of Wade, Ginobili, and Bryant. The only players I think are significantly better 3-point shooters with a high volume and propensity to get their own shot from the outside are Chris Paul, Steve Nash, and Chauncey Billups. Obviously, Monta isn’t the knock-down 3-point shooter some others are, like Steph, but he does it all on his own much more often.

I’m not saying that makes him better than anybody, I’m just positive that those are the types of skills Monta has that we can use to our advantage. I think it all starts with having a competent offensive scheme, rather than just competent offensive players, and we definitely didn’t have that last year. I’m not sure how much we had it 2 seasons ago in Don’s last year either. I want to see what Monta can do in Mark Jackson’s offense, which I’m hoping will be much more balanced and encourage posting up and cutting more.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 24, 2011 3:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, i think the difference between guys collapsing on Monta and Dorell is a function of when they drive.

Dorell tends to drive off somebody else’s kick. That is to say, the defense is not set. They’re all adjusted to the motion that the penetrator caused. They have to spin their heads to find him, and they’re out of position because they usually have to check in on where their man is before they do anything. Sometimes they’re already moving the wrong way, and they’re certainly not standing their watching him with one hand on their defender waiting for the perfect moment to double.

It’s a small delay, but it’s a crucial one.

This is a great example of what I mean when I rant about Monta driving into “set” defenses. It’s not a defensive scheme. It’s that when everybody knows you’re going to drive and you haven’t used ball and player movement to unsettle the defense, they’re in a uniquely good position to help effectively. It’s why the first principles of team offensive basketball are ball and player movement.

So I don’t really disagree with you about what you’re seeing here – I just disagree about why we’re seeing it. If Dorell drove from the top of the key, and was able to beat his man (which he’d do much less consistently than Monta does) you’d see a similar collapse f the defense. But since Dorell usually drives once the defense is already collapsed or rotated, he’s driving under much more favorable conditions.

The good news is that it looks like our new coaches understand this, and are going to try to drill better habits into Monta. It’s possible he could see some huge offensive improvement from this, because he does have some special skills.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 23, 2011 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

promise you that when/if Monta improves this year, there are gonna be all sorts of “see, Monta haterz?? He rools!!”

"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 23, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I never said they do it because Monta is so great.

I said that’s simply what he faces when he takes his shots. Everyone does better when they have easier chances. I think of any non All-Star in the league, Monta is the player who’s ended up with the most difficult chances regularly. That’s a product of him, definitely, but it’s also a product of the team, and the coaching staff.

I do think that he gets a slight bit more attention, even away from the ball than a guy like Afflalo or definitely Wes Mathews, because like you said:

he does have some special skills

They know this, and know in the right situations, he’s much more dangerous than most players. Obviously, he nor the team offense hasn’t put him in the situations we’d like to see him in often enough, so his efficiency does suffer, but that isn’t to say that some of the things he does often don’t benefit us. If we start to use him the right way more often, I think he IS a skilled enough player to be our first offensive option. He’s become a much more versatile offensive player in the past 2 seasons, and if we can get some better ball-movement, I think it’ll open things up for everyone.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 24, 2011 3:13 AM PST up reply actions  

I would love to see Monta actually be a defensive stopper

I cannot believe I forgot Ginobli who is definitely better. Paul George probably will be better, but I feel comfortable putting him into possibly better camp with Tony and Ray Allen. BTW Affalo and Matthews are both plus defensive players. Monta …. not so much

by pericles31081 on Dec 20, 2011 12:53 AM PST reply actions  

+1

Seriously kids, grow up. Not everyone with a different take from you is a “hater.” If someone thinks Monta is a better player than Reggie Williams, does that make him or her a Mr. Potatohead “hater”?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 20, 2011 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

nooooooooo

i dont think anybody would want to be a mr potatoehead hater.. ) :

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 20, 2011 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Clearly was are all just jealous and wish we could play defense like Monta. Thus, we are all haters.

by ERock386 on Dec 20, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I've heard this proposed before.

But no. There are cases where “hater” is misplaced, but bottom line is there are “haters,” and “hate” in sport. Doesn’t mean I agree with the idea here, but to ban their use would make no sense. They perfectly describe many instances of how sports fans come to conclusions. There are Niner fans who are without a doubt Alex Smith “haters.” Obviously there’s a difference between hate and thinking he just isn’t very good, but both exist. There’s no reason to ignore the ones who are out of line.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 5:33 PM PST up reply actions  

to ban their use would make no sense.

Dude, I don’t think he’s seriously proposing a ban. He’s just pointing out the silly misuse/overuse/abuse of the term.

Hate
/hāt/
verb: Feel intense or passionate dislike for (someone)

I’m pretty sure this doesn’t apply to 99% of the critics of Monta, David Lee, Alex Smith, et al. on blogs like this. There are few things more annoying than being accused of something you’re not remotely guilty of.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 20, 2011 6:47 PM PST up reply actions  

On one hand I was kidding

on the other hand … well, let’s just say the world would be a greater place without it (and while at it, “no homo” as well).

by wallywagon11 on Dec 20, 2011 9:27 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

When I say "hate", here is what I mean:

I was reading a thread the other day where someone insinuated that it would be best for the franchise to trade Monta for a mid-first round pick. This was so ridiculous that it prompted my post. For those of you who say it is not ridiculous, no one has yet given me a list proving that Monta is not a top 10 SG. 10 names may have been floated out there, but no one has actually been able to put together a full list.

"Morrow... That's a two pointer!"
-Kevin Harlan for the 22nd time during an NBA 2k11 exhibition

by don't leave Morrow! on Dec 20, 2011 11:48 PM PST up reply actions  

If they gave you a name like Bogans

or Landry Fields, pretty sure there isn’t really a need for a list lol

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 21, 2011 12:04 AM PST up reply actions  

For those of you who say it is not ridiculous, no one has yet given me a list proving that Monta is not a top 10 SG. 10 names may have been floated out there, but no one has actually been able to put together a full list.

What would said “proof” consist of?

Several people have given you lists of more than ten players.

Explain to me objectively how you’d like to see such a thing proven.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 21, 2011 9:19 AM PST up reply actions  

here's what it comes down to, for me

1.) Dubs need to get better
2.) out of all the players on our roster, Monta is

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 9:59 AM PST reply actions  

oops

was going to just cancel that and dis-engage

But my point is that any perceived Monta hating is just the conclusion of a longer set of analyses.

Yes, my ideal would be that we keep all our starting 5 and everyone just develops into a much better player. I would love to see Steph and Monta work as a backcourt. Just doubtful this can really happen.

But my opinion is that the best path to improve the team dramatically in the near-term would be a trade package centered around Monta; hopefully returning a high draft pick and/or a good defensive wing or a better center.

I would like to keep Steph, Udoh and DWright around, but if the right deal came along, I guess you have to be willing to trade them too.

I don’t hate Monta at all, he is still one of my favorite players to watch.

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I disagree slightly

I think that Wright is really good, and trading Monta for a guy like Iggy would just negate the value we have at that position while giving up our biggest asset. I like Curry, but I think people are blinded by the “hope” prospect of him to realize that his defense is not better than Monta, and while his pure shooting might be a little better, he can’t create shots as well as Monta. I think they would need a bigger two guard, or a good big man, but I just don’t see us ever getting good value for Monta.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Whether or not Curry's defense, in abstract, is as bad as Monta's -

- functionally it’s not because he’s capable of playing the position he’s capable of defending. The problem with Monta as a defender is compounded by the fact that he’s simply too small to defend SGs. If he was a PG offensively, that’d be one thing. I’m open to the argument that he’s better defensively than Curry against PGs.

But since he’s not a PG, it’s moot.

As for creating shots as well, I think the evidence actually doesn’t back that up. Curry is just as good in isolations, if not better, than Monta is. Monta creates more shots, but a lot of them are not shots you particularly want created.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Bias

See this is where the bias comes in. I’ve seen Curry get blown by many times, when he’s guarding point gurads. I’d say more often than I’ve seen Monta.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions  

selective memory

and often, point guards get to the rim when they run the pick and roll. a pick and roll is not a blow by. there are a lot less pick and roll’s run by shooting guards.

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

selective memory

you hate Monta so you remember the Monta plays more. I like basketball and hate seeing layup by the other team, so I seem to think I remember those.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

there are many players in the NBA that i like, but are not good

so would i want them on the warriors? no. why? because they don’t help the team

by bigkino217 on Dec 20, 2011 11:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Right

and some of us think that he’s really good, but has had the burden of having to carry a bad team so his stats have suffered. With a proper team filled with NBA players instead of D-Leaguers and salary dumps, I think he could be very effective. This year with a little more rest and some spacing on the floor due to adequate support, I think he’ll look much better.

by Ice Watter In His Veins! on Dec 20, 2011 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Show us one video of Monta moving side to side quickly to stay between his man and the basket. That has never happened in his NBA career.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

show us when Reggie made a pick and roll pass on point

by SDtotheBay on Dec 20, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure. As soon as you show me Monta effectively keeping someone from driving. Just once.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 20, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

It happens multiple times in this video.

It’s mostly just steals, but there’s some of him moving his feet. There are actually back to back examples of him on Brandon Roy around the 2:15 mark. First he moves his feet and draws an offensive charge, then he moves his feet and forces a fade-away.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhFsHS3FhwQ

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

remember, just because you disprove the extreme statement, does NOT mean you disproved the whole premise

obviously, Monta plays some defense, no way he would make it in the pros if he was literally completely worthless on D

but the point remains valid (Monta’s D is very very bad)

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 21, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions  

I never said he never moves his feet, period. I used qualifiers like “quickly” or “effectively.” That said, I will grant that he moved his feet well and looked pretty good doing it at one point in the video. But only one :P. Shows how hard it is to find him doing it, which is pathetic.

Also, LOL at someone easily blowing by him in that video and him catching up to steal it as an example of good defense. ha ha ha ha The video is comprised mostly of him stealing, which no one denies he can do. There are a couple scenes in that video that the poster thinks is good, but it really shows Monta kinda getting schooled and then making up for it.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 22, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Um...

did you read my comment? I SAID it was mostly steals. Pay attention, please.

I never said he never moves his feet, period.

That is exactly what you said:

Show us one video of Monta moving side to side quickly to stay between his man and the basket. That has never happened in his NBA career.

NEVER.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 22, 2011 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow. Poor reading comprehension. I said “one video of Monta moving side to side QUICKLY…” I implied that he moves his feet, but suggested that he doesn’t move his feet quickly.

Also, I my commentary on the video was partly for people who didn’t watch it and not directed JUST for you. That’s why I mentioned it was mostly steals.

I'm the soul brotha' like no other!

by Naticus on Dec 24, 2011 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, this is why we use stats, to check our subjective impressions.

And the stats don’t make a strong case that Curry is better at defending PGs than Monta. It actually comes down to how you want to define “better” (do you care more about efg% or fouls?).

On the other hand, comparing Curry as a one to Monta as a two, the stats are unambiguous. It’s not even close. Monta, for all his offensive skill, is losing the battle of TS% and efg% against his two-guard opponents. (See 82games.com).

Curry, on the other hand, doesn’t.

(Looking further at those stats, it’s clear that when it comes to defending two-guards, Curry is much worse than Monta. This isn’t surprising – based on what I’ve seen I wouldn’t expect Curry to be able to defend two-guards … and the stats back that up.)

My argument, by the way, is not that Curry is particularly good at point guard defense. You say he gets blown by sometimes, and I agree.

Ultimately, though, it’s not just about counting “blow bys” or any other thing. It’s a consistent thing – whether we’re talking about people just shooting over Monta, or posting him up. So maybe Curry does get blown by more often – I don’t think so, but I’m not going to claim to know definitively one way or the other, and it’s not the sort of thing where I’d particularly trust my memory.

For example (speaking hypothetically) if Curry got blown by once a game more than Monta, but Monta’s opponents had an 8% advantage on the 13 other shots they took each game, I suspect most of us would subjectively feel that Curry was the worse defender, because blow-bys are big and memorable and easy to see, whereas an 8% advantage on each shot is rather hard to see – in fact, I’d argue that it’s impossible to see without using statistics.

But if you do the math, you see that, in that case, Curry would actually be playing better defense, because the little 8% advantages add up.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions  

do you think this might be an indication that perhaps you think he is better than he actually is??
I just don’t see us ever getting good value for Monta.

or how else do you explain Monta’s trade value being low?
I mean, $11 mil per year for a premium wing player seems like a pretty good deal

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Just doubtful this can really happen.

That’s my attitude as well. Even if Monta does everything we want him to do on the offensive end, and gives better effort on the defensive end, it’s hard to imagine how he’s ever going to be better than “poor” defensively.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 20, 2011 10:48 AM PST up reply actions  

yeah

dream scenario is that Udoh turns into some sort of Dwight Howard-esque monster, covers for all deficiencies on D, and becomes a solid post player…could maybe make it work.

But then, you have to wonder how much of that team’s success is just due to the fact that we have a monster on the low block

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 20, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I've come to the conclusion

that the argument even existing is a product of our team not being good. So I try not to care what anyone has to say on the subject, whether good or bad.

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Dec 20, 2011 5:06 PM PST reply actions  

Silly. This has been discussed ad nauseum here.

You want to know why some fans don’t think Monta is very good? It’s been laid out. Just about every rate stat points to his play being detrimental to winning.

Instead of immediately looking for excuses, just stop and think about it for a while. The team has done better without Monta for the last few seasons. The team did better with Reggie. It’s really that simple. The stats just help quantify that reality.

by Uwe Blog on Dec 20, 2011 11:58 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

yes

Monta’s not necessarily bad, he just is a horrible fit for a team that plays bad defense. Simply put, Monta is no good for this team.

by jpees on Dec 24, 2011 5:55 PM PST up reply actions  

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