EvanZ's 2012 NBA Win Projections
by Evanz on Dec 23, 2011 2:57 PM PST
in NBA Stats
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PrintWin projections. Everybody's got them. Here are mine, constructed by averaging the latest multi-year RAPM ratings and my own ezPM ratings over the past two seasons with a little "massaging" and intuition thrown in. Head after the jump for a table of the predictions and a few thoughts on the season.
Western Conference
Odds are Vegas odd for winning championship.
|
PLACE |
TEAM |
WIN% |
W |
L |
ODDS |
|
1 |
OKC |
64.20% |
42 |
24 |
7 |
|
2 |
LAL |
62.89% |
42 |
24 |
5.5 |
|
3 |
DAL |
62.67% |
41 |
25 |
8 |
|
4 |
LAC |
57.77% |
38 |
28 |
75 |
|
5 |
SAS |
56.70% |
37 |
29 |
12 |
|
6 |
MEM |
54.53% |
36 |
30 |
35 |
|
7 |
POR |
53.94% |
36 |
30 |
30 |
|
8 |
DEN |
53.71% |
35 |
31 |
25 |
|
9 |
PHO |
47.19% |
31 |
35 |
100 |
|
10 |
HOU |
45.23% |
30 |
36 |
75 |
|
11 |
GSW |
43.08% |
28 |
38 |
100 |
|
12 |
UTA |
39.18% |
26 |
40 |
100 |
|
13 |
SAC |
39.15% |
26 |
40 |
100 |
|
14 |
NOH |
38.72% |
26 |
40 |
40 |
|
15 |
MIN |
34.17% |
23 |
43 |
200 |
Eastern Conference
|
PLACE |
TEAM |
WIN% |
W |
L |
ODDS |
|
1 |
MIA |
76.54% |
51 |
15 |
2.5 |
|
2 |
BOS |
65.13% |
43 |
23 |
8 |
|
3 |
CHI |
64.94% |
43 |
23 |
6.5 |
|
4 |
ORL |
63.99% |
42 |
24 |
20 |
|
5 |
ATL |
54.48% |
36 |
30 |
50 |
|
6 |
PHI |
53.46% |
35 |
31 |
60 |
|
7 |
NYK |
53.20% |
35 |
31 |
30 |
|
8 |
IND |
48.79% |
32 |
34 |
100 |
|
9 |
MIL |
47.94% |
32 |
34 |
100 |
|
10 |
NJN |
37.57% |
25 |
41 |
75 |
|
11 |
CHA |
36.02% |
24 |
42 |
100 |
|
12 |
DET |
34.18% |
23 |
43 |
200 |
|
13 |
CLE |
33.01% |
22 |
44 |
100 |
|
14 |
TOR |
32.48% |
21 |
45 |
200 |
|
15 |
WAS |
28.61% |
19 |
47 |
100 |
I put up my minutes projections along with the RAPM and ezPM ratings (which are averaged for the final rating) into a Google spreadsheet.
Thoughts
In the East, Miami should be really good again. They were good last year, had very little turnover in terms of stars, and with an extra year together there's no reason to expect anything less than another very good season and seeing them right back in the finals. Boston got worse, so it's hard to see them competing with Miami this season. Chicago is primed having only lost Bogans as a primary contributor, but he was their weakest starter a season ago. I don't expect Richard Hamilton to be "good", but he doesn't have to be that good really. The Knicks got Tyson Chandler and now have sort of a "Big Three Light". I don't think it's enough to compete with Miami, but it's enough to be fun to watch. My guess is that the Knicks and Clippers will be among the most "League Pass-able" teams this season. Finally, I see Indiana and Milwaukee having a good battle for the 8th spot in the East. I'd give the slight edge to the Pacers as they are a younger team, and players like Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough could have "break out" seasons.
So, while the East is a fairly easy call (I can't imagine anyone not picking Miami outside of those folks living in Chicago), the West is up for grabs. The top 8 teams are separated by only 7 wins in my projections (although 7 wins in a 66-game season is arguably a sizable difference). At any rate, it looks like the Thunder, Lakers, and Mavericks are going to be fighting for the top spot, with the Clippers led by Chris Paul right on their heels. As long as San Antonio has Duncan and Ginobili, you have to give them a fighting chance, and Memphis even with the loss of Darrel Arthur is still primed to be in the hunt. Portland and Denver are predicted to have similar win totals, but Denver will be a lot more fun to watch. Interestingly, you can see by the projections that after Denver, no other team really comes that close to the 8th spot. And this shouldn't be shocking. Phoenix didn't get better, and Houston lost Chuck Hayes.
Sadly, the Warriors appear to be pretty much exactly where they were a season ago. I'd love to be proven wrong about this team, but based on what we know now, there's no good reason to expect a major turnaround. And if Curry goes down for any significant length of time, it will be time to seriously get the tank talk going around here.
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Comments
28-38 seems a little high
I’d go 22-44
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
Why so low?
I heard he doesn't like music.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 23, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
Looked at the schedule
We don’t play against a lot of easy teams. Also, run-and-gun might not win championships, but that is basically the style this team plays. If we slow it down to play defense, we’ll get killed more by other teams. Run-and-gun is more effective this season for a young team in a shortened season. Make the veteran teams run a lot. If we slow it down they can use their half-court offense to beat us.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Dec 23, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
I read some analysis that teams that played run and gun before the last lockout were actually the teams hit the hardest by the lockout shortened season. Not definitive to be sure, but it’s a thing. 22-44 is a really bad team. I think we’re just a regular bad team.
I heard he doesn't like music.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 23, 2011 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, looking at my prediction it does seem a little harsh. I do think we got worse, though. I’m thinking around 25 wins.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Dec 23, 2011 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
I'm worried about Curry's ankle in a condensed season
I’m also worried about Mark Jackson’s defense first philosophy. Also, our bench got worse, and we play in the Western Conference, which is always stacked.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Dec 23, 2011 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
well to put your mind at ease
mike malone is mainly running defensive schemes and plans. Jackson is just preaching it that they must defend and play defend. Hes mainly the shot caller, but malone backs jackson up with schemes and player analysis.
but yes, i think the warriors will be slightly better than last year mainly because of a better bench than last year and barring injuries, curry and lee should play much better than last. Curry should have that traditional 3rd year explosion and Lee should now already be comfortable playing with the warriors after a transition season and that odd injury out of the way. Did you guys see Lee play against Kings? Holy Shit that is the DLee I was use to seeing. Image DLee giving us 20/10 a night. With a competent center, we should do WAY better.
curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.
by bimmercirem3 on Dec 23, 2011 7:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How exactly did the bench get worse?
And please don’t say Reggie Williams.
by eastbayglory on Dec 23, 2011 8:16 PM PST up reply actions
Why can’t he say Reggie Williams? He’d be the best perimeter player off the bench this year if we had him. Of course losing him makes the bench worse.
I heard he doesn't like music.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 23, 2011 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
Why can't I?
Reggie was an efficient scorer off the bench. Who do we have to replace him? Do you know how valuable a bench scorer is. Plus he was an okay starter if a guard got injured. Now we don’t have that. We have a bunch of rookies drafted in a weak draft. We got worse in the guard position.
You could say we improved in the small forward spot. But I’m not as high on Brandon Rush as most people, though. He’s bad on offense, and he’s an okay defender. Yeah the Synergy stats shows that he made his opponent shoot low percentages, but he wasn’t doing this against elite competition. He’s doing this as a bench player going against other bench players, or a starter who is already tired. His defense is overrated. His offense is awful I think there was a reason the Pacers kept him on the bench.
As for the power forward position, Udoh is who he is at this point. He plays defense, and has a little offense, but not much. I guess you could argue that it improved because he isn’t injured.
Center position – Kwame Brown is an improvement. I don’t think he is that big an improvement, though, because it’s not like he is elite at blocking or altering shots. He plays good post defense – that’s it. He also lacks offense. Once again I’m not as high on him as some people.
If we had kept Reggie then we would have had a better bench than last year.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Dec 23, 2011 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
I like Reggie too, and half his game
but I think the combo of Jenkins/Thompson will prove better off the bench than Reggie alone, who was really our only bench player of any consequence last year. Throw in Udoh’s improvement, a serviceable big like Brown, some toughness from McGuire, and Tyler’s potential, the net gain in terms of bench talent and production is pretty measurable.
So I guess you can say Reggie Williams, but his loss alone cannot signal a worse bench this year.
by eastbayglory on Dec 24, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
Reggie was an efficient scorer off the bench. Who do we have to replace him? Do you know how valuable a bench scorer is. Plus he was an okay starter if a guard got injured. Now we don’t have that. bq.
Klay Thompson made Reggie’s scoring redundant, assuming his shooting stroke comes around. More importantly, Rush and McGuire are far superior wing defenders. Rush or Thompson would start in place of Monta or D.Wright, depending on how the rookie campaign goes. I’m much more confident in those two than Reggie, as much as I enjoyed watching him play.
Big Baby Jesus 2012
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Dec 24, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
We’ll see with Thompson. Reggie could do a lot more offensively besides just shoot the ball. As for Maguire…ugh…Maguire sucks. I mean…I don’t disagree that he’s a better wing defender than Reggie (not saying much), but overall, he’s just not a player that deserves to be on the court….
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
MacGuire feels like a Brian Sabean signing
All you ever hear about him positively are ‘intangibles’.
How does Klay make Reggie's scoring redundant?
I want to point out to Klay supporters that he had a hard time penetrating and finishing at the rim as a 22 year old in college. He’s not much of a scorer outside of spot up jumpers, which Reggie ranked 7th in the NBA at last year. Reggie was a good passer, penetrator, and finisher at the rim. Very underrated rebounder as well. There’s definitely a downgrade from Reggie to Klay.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
maybe I shouldn't have singled out Klay.
This team does not lack in penetrating and passing. As for rebounding, Reggie’s 4.8reb/36min shouldn’t make or break a team. Will Thompson be more like Chris Mullin or Mike Dunleavy? Boom or Bust? Probably somewhere in the middle, but we don’t know yet. More importantly, this team now has wing depth. If Klay has an off night, give Rush more minutes, or vice versa. See if you can develop anything out of C.Wright or Mcguire. This seems like a smarter strategy than sticking with one player with little to no upside.
Big Baby Jesus 2012
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Dec 24, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
Reggie has no upside?
What would be so bad about having Reggie on the team? We could have Rush and Reggie too?
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
Forget, it Gov. The bird flew the nest after we opened the door!
Just hope he gets well and continues to kick butt. Besides, tired of trying to make blind men see! Of course, ’tis the season of miracles. Happy holidays to all, and all, a good night….
Just blame Riley, it's what I'm left to do.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Klay had no problem penetrating in preseason
The same thing you said, could be said about Curry in college and he’s fine in pro’s.
Won’t be monta, but he can go inside and finish.
28-38 seems about right
we’re marginally worse than last year
I'm a little more negative
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Dec 23, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Another year of experience for Steph, and David Lee is gonna play better. Those look like two good reasons to think we’re a little better this year to me….
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
true
lack of keith smart at coach may help too
its always fun when you kinda guys start to sound a little optimistic
Dont forget about the wildcard in Tyler, if he can give us some meaningful depth at center and provide some side drama with ppl calling for him to be named starter …. things could get interesting..
by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 24, 2011 9:57 PM PST up reply actions
Can Tyler play C? He looks awfully small and raw to me.
I wouldn’t expect many minutes to start the season.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Yeah, but you've got to realize how unlikely that is.
He’s a second round pick who wasn’t impressive in a stint in a mediocre foreign league.
I think Curry will have a much better year this year.
I expect Monta to be about the same. Lee and Biedrins should be better. More Udoh..better coaching. No reason we shouldn’t be at least 32-34 or 33-33. Playoffs might be stretching it though.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 23, 2011 3:56 PM PST reply actions
i agree that curry will have a great year (if he can stay healthy). like you said montas the same and is anyone else disappointed that D. Wright looks like he hasnt improved? maybe even regressed a little? im hoping he’s just out of shape but i thought he wold have stepped up from all the bball he played over the summer. Lee looks poised to return to form and udoh looks much improved. If beans and our bench/rookies can provide anything positive we can get our win total in the 30’s
by No Dice Jim Rice on Dec 23, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
yeah that is a good point about D Wright
He’s been disappointing in exhibition, but it’s only been 2 games. He had a couple nice moments but maybe he’s just pacing himself, really treating these like preseason games. I could see D Wright take this approach now that he’s locked-in as a starter and not fighting for a job.
On the other hand, I don’t know what to make of him playing so much this summer. I love that he kept his game quick, but with the heavy minutes he played last year for the first time in his career, you gotta wonder how he’s holding up.
by eastbayglory on Dec 24, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
yup i agree completely.
Curry should have that Junior year explosion like the rest of the guards in the past (i.e. Westbrook, Eric Gordon). DLee should be more comfortable and his injury should be subsided and a nonfactor. Beans seem to be more confident and actually has a gameplan: rebound and defend which comes naturally to him anyways. UDOH is our exfactor because he harness the potential being a solid backup PF/C. He can be really good giving us that post presence. Monta should be the same as before, but more effecient since Curry should handle the ball more.
Klay and the rest of the rooks is also a exfactor and hopefully if they turn out to be what we expected or more, then its cream on the top of the damn beautiful but boring cake. Imagine having a solid solid backups. Jenkins especially eases my mind because he can be that solid backup pg.
curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.
by bimmercirem3 on Dec 23, 2011 8:04 PM PST up reply actions
monta will be better than biedrins
I’ve liked monta’s controlled play in preseason and staffs emphasis on making curry option #1. Expecting a slight increase in efficiency and a drop in volume picked up by curry
Also defensive emphasis should improve the team. Not expecting some top 10 d. But even low teens to 20th would be a big improvement.
Our chances at going above 500 mostly depend on health. Curry goes down I can see monta reverting back to kobe mode
seems about right
i think we’ll be lucky to get to 30
Having only seen 2 preseason games
it’s pretty early to know what this group might do. Average team should win 33 but we got an untried coach and lots of rookies so we might be below average. After about 10 games we should be able to make reasonable projections.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Dec 23, 2011 4:32 PM PST reply actions
Being overly optimistic but I would say 36-30
David Lee is fully healthy, Monta will be hungry to play and not have his legal troubles be a burden, I see Biedrins getting a bit of his confidence back, Udoh will have a good year, Curry got Jackson as a coach who was a PG so I see improvements from him. The additions to the team even though not “sexy” are all defensive minded except Klay and that is what was needed from last year. Not to mention Rush and Brown have 1 year contracts so expect them to be hungry as well.
That’s the equivalent to a 45 win team in a normal year. That’s pretty dramatic improvement for a team that made no real roster changes. Essentially penciling in Curry to become a superstar.
I heard he doesn't like music.
by Reverend_Randy on Dec 23, 2011 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
If Biedrins played like Biedrins of old, I don’t think it’s out of the question. Of course, as much as I distrust Biedrins at this point, I think that’s the unlikely scenario…
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
This is how I feel
I think our margin for error is a lot smaller than other teams, however if everything shakes out, it’s VERY attainable.
So we’re talking about a 9 game swing from last season-
-DLee healthy and contributing +2. I’m talking 08/09 level. Not even 09/10
-Curry stepping up and becoming ‘the man’. +2. Coaching gives us the indication he’ll be this. Stay healthy steph!
-Monta playing under control +2. Shooting us out of games less, passing more. In general, more effective
-Andris resembling a professional bball player +2. Again, I’m asking for 06/07 return, not his best years (2007-2009). Where he finishes, rebounds, defends rim.
Bench We are deeper upfront, we need to get something from young backcourt depth +1
That’s a 9 game swing. I feel it’s all VERY possible. If DLee and Curry step up, and Monta doesn’t over shoot, we’ll see a big improvement. If Andris does something, and we get steady minutes from Kwame/Udoh even better.
I think those 9 wins are reasonable ... but you've got to subtract some for the harder schedule.
We play a disproportionate number of games against good teams this year.
True
But going a step, beyond, context of games played? Older teams are much easier to knock off on a long road trip, back to back or end of a 4 in 5 nights.
On flip side, we could easily be knocked off to a lesser opponent in same situation.
I’m not a huge WS/WP fan but I do see a value in it (it’s less reliable with older and younger teams who might be big changes in production in either direction), but I do think this season it’s especially unreliable for all the schedule reasons.
gotta love it when
you’re odds of winning the championship are 3 times greater than there are teams in the league.
i predict they will win 36 games this year. if Curry’s ankle is an issue, then 22.
28-38
Sounds like vintage Warriors. Don’t wanna suck and get a top 5 pick, yet wanna try for the playoffs with a terrible roster.
I see us as a 22-25 win team though as it stands. We decided to go shooting in the draft, used the amnesty on a cheap expiring contract, and signed Kwame Brown to a 1-year (non-MLE) contract. We completely ignored defense again.
I still don’t have faith in this team.
"I'm not a big vegetable guy'' he says. -Tim Lincecum
We could try and trade into the lottery
Try trading Klay and next years 1st since this years is so stacked
RIP Al Davis
Ignored defense?
I will admit that we didnt really make any big moves this offseason, but dominic mcguire, brandon rush, and kwame brown are all defensive signings. you could argue that they are bad defensive signings, but I dont see how you can say the FO ignored defense
I can see anywhere from 30-36 wins
The team is improved. There is a better coaching staff in place and therefore a better philosophy. I think we’re going to see how far back Nelly/Smart have put us with their utter lack of attention to detail. I may not agree with everything Mark Jackson says, but he is at least organized.
On top of the coaching, the team is healthy and I think the bench is a little deeper, especially defensively.
I see them hanging around .500 most of the year.
we'll land right where we don't want to be
not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to get a top 7 pick. Average. Mediocre. In the middle.
I think that the year is going to start off pretty rough.
Tough early schedule, new coach/system and several new players, not to mention Curry at less than 100% for a few games, at best.
But I see a lot of the better teams taking their foot off the gas as the season progresses to save some energy and players for the post season. With our rough start, our reputation, and the new rookie coach, I can easily see us being overlooked as an easy W during a brutal season.
Hopefully, Curry gets healthy, Lee stays healthy, the team gels and takes advantage of it’s defensive depth, and we start surprising people with a late run.
At any rate, being where we were last season may be a little better than people are remembering. Weren’t we 7-4 prior to the Zombie bite?
Man - this kool-aid is really good! What did you put in it?
Great, now we’re gonna have another mediocre year where we don’t suck enough to get a top draft pick so we lose our draft pick in next year’s deep draft class. We’re gonna be mired in mediocrity with no way up or down unless some big change happens.
That's exactly what I was thinking.
The Warriors are going absolutely nowhere with the core that they have now. The only way that they can keep their draft pick is if Curry goes down. Keeping Monta Ellis and playing him 40+ minutes/night is great if a team wants to tank. Monta and this organization frustrate me to no end. Perhaps a Curry injury would be the blessing in disguise that this team needs to allow it to draft the talent to get it out of the wasteland it’s currently in. If Curry stays healthy, however, the best I can hope for is an Ellis for Iguodala type of trade (not likely). Things just aren’t going to work out with this team. It’s a structural problem that I don’t think coaching can fix.
Colin Kaepernick: He"ll Kap your @$$.
by Yellow DubMarine on Dec 23, 2011 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
I agree. I don’t see a realistic plan in place to change where the team is at anytime in the near future, especially if we’re gonna go out and use our amnesty on Charlie freaking Bell’s one year, small contract.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
I thought you liked Lacob's moves?
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
No, I like Lacob, and I like his front office moves. I haven’t seen any roster moves I’ve liked too much so far.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
But aren’t the people Lacob’s putting in charge making the roster moves?
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, but I’m much more patient than you. There are plenty of reasons to be patient – it could be that they explored things I would have liked and it just wasn’t possible to make it happen. Maybe they make a few mistakes but learn from it. It happens. Nobody’s perfect…but eventually, a good process will pay off, even if it doesn’t in the short run.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 3:15 PM PST up reply actions
I had hope.
Then they amnestied Charlie Bell. That showed a lack of foresight and vision. Huge mistake. Lacob signed off on it.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
Mistakes happen. I’m not pleased about that, either – I don’t think it was the right move. I’m not going to write an organization off just for that, though.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
We'll see MB.
That might be a move that will haunt us for years.
by GovernorStephCurry on Dec 24, 2011 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
How many mistakes will it take for you to write an organization off?
Give me a number, and I can probably produce it! Happy holidays to you MB!
It’s not so much a number. If a few years from now, they’re still promoting a plan that has us in/headed towards basketball purgatory, I’ll start to sour on them. If they keep failing at the same strategy over and over…well, that’s what Cohan did.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
im curious who you guys would have liked to REALLY use your amnesty on.
I would have used in on Lee. A partial blow up I guess. So much money on the books for so long is hard to ignore
by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 24, 2011 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
Who said you had to use it this year? Sit on it if no opportunity comes up.
I agree it’s foolish to consider Biedrins at this point, and cocede the fact that more than likely the amnesty was never considered for Lee. Then save it. Don’t do any kind of knee-jerk reaction during a FA frenzy…oh wait. Damn.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Yes, no move is better than using it on Bell. Lee and Biedrins are both options, as well, though I do understand why they would not use it on either of them at this point.
by Missing Barry on Dec 25, 2011 12:54 AM PST up reply actions
We might be better -
- but we have a brutal schedule because it’s unbalanced this year. We have fewer games against the east which is much weaker once you get past the top teams.
I do think the strategy of using two-year RAPM and EZPM is going to be systemically wrong when it comes to older teams – the Lakers and Boston most specifically. Especially when you add in the compressed nature of the schedule.
"We might be better..." You have to be hohohoeing me! Happy Holidays to you, Ronaldhino.
I know, the schedule is now at fault….We just dismantled a team that was a seasoned coach and a biggie from the playoffs!
Huh?
I think improved play from Monta and Biedrins could make us a lot better, even without either of them duplicating their best seasons.
But who are we better than, on paper? Not Dallas, Clippers, OKC, Memphis or Denver. I expect the Lakers and Spurs to fall off substantially – but they were the 1 and 2 seeds in the playoffs last year. Do you really think they fall out of the playoffs? (I hate predictions – but I think that’s unlikely but possible for either team.) Portland shouldn’t fall off, neither should Houston.
That’s nine teams who are probably better than us, even with moderate improvements from Biedrins and Monta, and a whole year of Udoh.
28-38 sounds just about right to me!
best case 34—32.
I think its going to depend on what type of players our rookies are..
Things I'm not buying:
-Any team getting to 50 wins
-Phoenix finishing 9th, ahead of Houston and Golden State
-Clippers as the 4th Seed (lower)
-Boston finishing with a better/equal regular season record than Chicago
-Knicks as the 7th seed (higher)
-Washington as the worst in the east (Charlotte, Cleveland, Toronto)
Everything else seems reasonable. Though, I would hesitate to say OKC has become the West’s best team. We’ll see as the season goes along.
http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/
Not a fan of the Clippers? That team is going to be pretty scary. They have some serious top level talent. Griffin is already a lot better than anyone Paul’s ever played with.
by Missing Barry on Dec 24, 2011 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
I have no doubt Blake Griffin is going to be an amazing player in his career.
I just don’t think he’s there at this point. Playing with someone like Chris Paul is going to be a bit of a learning experience for him. LOB CITY is going to fun to watch, but I just don’t see the Clippers putting it together instantly. I’m not sure how much Chauncey or Caron have left, and believe Mo Williams is probably their 3rd best player right now. That’s easily good enough for a playoff birth, but I’m taking Memphis, San Antonio, and maybe even Portland before I’m taking the Clippers.
Not to mention, I don’t trust their management or coaching. For a team that’s still coming together, those are important needs. Because I don’t believe they will get that this season, I think the development process takes a little extra time.
Personally, I’d challenge the idea that Blake is AS OF NOW the best player Chris has ever played with. David West has been very underrated for a few seasons now. He didn’t get the respect he deserved even when he did make the All-Star team, and I was at one point one of the people who believed he didn’t deserve it. But I look at his game, then and now, and see a player who is a Top PF over the past 6 seasons. Those ahead of them being only Garnett, Duncan, Amare, P. Gasol and Dirk. I think he’s right there with Bosh considering his perpetual 2nd fiddle role on the Hornets, and his better defense. He’s incredibly consistent, a versatile offensive player, a calming leader, and a good defender. Any given year in the past few, he could arguably have been a Top 5 PF. Griffin hasn’t done that yet. He’s exciting, athletic, and very skilled, but he’ll get his praise when it’s due. Maybe that will happen this season, but I expect it’ll take him all of this shortened season to really figure it out.
http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/
I don’t think very much of David West, to be honest. I think he’s a below average defensive player (his post D isn’t bad, but he’s not much of a help defender and not particularly quick out on the perimeter, either). If you’re not gonna be a help side presence at all, the least you can do is get good rebounding position…and he doesn’t really do that particularly well, either. He’s a decent offensive player, but frankly, his numbers aren’t that impressive given that he’s played his whole career with Chris Paul, who’s obviously freaking awesome. I don’t think of West as anything more than a solid starter, really, and while Blake still has a long ways to go to realize his potential, he’s already the better offensive player and a much, much better rebounder. The only edge West has on him is post D, and Blake clearly has the physical tools to become a much better defender.
And obviously Blake has a ton of potential. Who knows how much he’s already developed from last season.
As for the gelling part, honestly, with a player like Chris Paul….give him the ball, and he’s gonna get himself and his teammates easy looks. They don’t need to do a whole lot to make it happen, Paul is that good, and just knows how to play the game. Don’t need much in chemistry/gel time for that. The big question to me is what their D is gonna do. Could definitely see that being their downfall…but still, top talent is the most important thing to a team, and they definitely have that now.
I’m also skeptical of Memphis. They had a nice playoff run, but they were still just the 8th seed, and didn’t accomplish that much more than the Warriors did during We Believe. I’m not gonna write them off – curious to see where they end up, but not convinced they’re a serious contender.
by Missing Barry on Dec 25, 2011 1:11 AM PST up reply actions
Paul is that good
No one is that good. Talent and physical abilities will only get you so far. Look at the Heat last year. Talent wise, they should have won the championship. There was no combination of 3 players in the league that could compete with LeBron/Wade/Bosh, but they had clear struggles, especially early on. The Clippers are not as talented as the Heat, and the West is better than the East, so I believe their struggles will only be more pronounced, with less time to make it up at the end of the season.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Lakers don’t have 5 championships from the Shaq/Kobe era? Crumbling chemistry. There are far too many examples of it either taking time, or just no happening at all, for me to think the Clippers will storm out of the gates to a home court playoff series.
As for the David West/Blake Griffin comparison, I’m not much caught up in what your opinion of West is. Different people feel different ways about him. I feel more strongly about the chemistry issue anyway. But, I would also like to point out, it’s not like Paul hasn’t had a similar roster before. A front line of Chandler/West is easily as formidable as Jordan/Griffin, from whom we’re not entirely sure what to expect. Peja Stojakavic was still an elite shooter/scorer. They had a lot of decent wing/guard depth. That sounds very similar to what the Clippers have right now to me. And it took a year for Paul and the Hornets to figure out what they had.
In 2006-2007 they finished with 39 wins with nearly an identical roster as 2007-2008, in which they won 56 games. Elite teams don’t happen overnight, even with blockbuster trades or additions. The only recent example of this happening that I can think of is the Celtics. The difference to them, as I see it, was they’d already had experience with different kinds of rosters. They all had the same goal, knowing their time would be up in 5 years. They were veterans. They understood. Blake Griffin is still learning. So is Deandre Jordan. Billups isn’t, but from what he looked like in New York, he’s a player that either isn’t the same or will require some time to adjust. I’m not entirely sure what to think of Caron Butler. Boston was also much more talented, like the Heat.
I’m trying to recall the last star player of Paul’s level to be traded to a losing team, and what happened in that situation. The first player that comes to mind is Jason Kidd going to the Nets, then to the Finals in the same year. So I’ll keep my mind more open to the possibility of the Clippers having immediate success (becoming elite). But if asked to predict where they’ll finish as of now, I’d still go with 6th in the West, behind the Mavericks, Lakers, Thunder, Spurs, and Grizzlies.
http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/
I think Kidd is a good example. The Heat’s biggest problem is their players don’t necessarily mesh that well, despite their obvious talents. Paul is more in the Kidd boat, where he brings his PG skills and complements the other guys very well. We know Griffin and Jordan are above the rim finishes….which is perfect for a guy like Paul. Nobody has to learn how to play a new role like the guys on the Heat do, just more of the same of what they already do well.
by Missing Barry on Dec 25, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I’d challenge the idea that Blake is AS OF NOW the best player Chris has ever played with.
Griffin’s rookie year TS% – playing with an out-of-shape Baron at the point for most of the year – is better than west’s career average. In 07-08, the best Paul-West year, it was .540 – worse than Blake’s last year, on lower volume.
Which is to say nothing about the intangibles that Blake brings to the table in terms of intimidation, getting the crowd involved, being somebody you can build an offense around, creating his own shot … whatever you want to call it. He’s also a better rebounder.
West has always struck me as little more than a good complementary player. He doesn’t do anything particularly well – he scores at good volume but with average efficiency, tending to feed off his teammates. He’s a nice player to have, but really nothing special.
West is a better defender.
Though by no means a big gap. It’s not like we’re comparing KG and Griffin.
I don't think it's at all a given that west is a better defender.
Opposing TS% is .525 vs. .518 in west’s favor, in a season that included Blake’s adjustment to the NBA period. I think the difference is pretty small – nobody ever really describes West as a good defender.
I need to dig up the synergy numbers
But if i remember correctly (could be wrong) much better man defender.
Which wouldn’t be surprising. Man defense, spot up, iso situations are stuff rookies struggle most with
To be fair to West, his efficiency definitely took a step up the last couple seasons.
by Missing Barry on Dec 25, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I hate when I hear about missing the playoffs
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
and so it goes
no one wants to tank, but we cant get better without better players which we can’t get unless we are in the lottery because most FA avoid us like the plague unless we drastically overpay
if ever there was a season to tank, it could be argued that this season is the most obvious one to sacrifice due to our draft position (we will lose our pick unless we are in the top few) in a year when the consensus is the draft is deep in talent
of course new owners don’t want a poor season, again, and fans want to win but cold blooded logic could indicate that the long term success of the franchise is in positioning for this draft; the alternative could be far worse – miss the playoffs again but also miss out on adding another talented player at a rookie salary scale
~ an original fan of the SF Warriors
by hardcore on Dec 24, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
BUT what if we lost alot of games and yet got the number one pick and Tyler shows signs of promise ?
You could totally celebrate the good individual performances and yet know that next years draft lottery process is DUE to be in the warriors favor .. (way over due)
by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 24, 2011 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
Vegas odds for Clippers and Hornets
Looks like there is some delay in switching these.
Currently NOH is 40 to 1 and Clippers are 75 to 1.
More like 300 to 1 and 35 to 1.
Some things that seem a little odd..
The Celtics and Lakers finishing 2nd in their conferences, despite another year of aging and no depth. Similarly, young, deep teams like the Nuggets and Pacers should be a little better (especially since David West seems like an upgrade over Mike Dunleavy). Did you adjust for the increased amount of back to backs?
Also, subjectively, the bottom of the WC seems much, much better than the bottom of the EC. I’d take anyone in the West over the bottom five or six teams in the East (on the fence about NJ). Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are going to be wretched, while Minnesota, New Orleans, Sacramento (Chuck Hayes!), Utah, and Golden State all have talent, and make some semblance of sense as teams (unlike Washington, for example).
On the plus side:
The Warriors went 21-29 in the 98-99 lockout shortened season winning 42% of their games. Look how far we’ve come!
43% UNSTOPPABLE BABY!
Big Baby Jesus 2012
by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Dec 24, 2011 2:03 PM PST reply actions
18-23 wins
Had a longer post but accidentally hit cancel (stupid iPhone combined with clumsiness).
Looking at our schedule, we can easily start 0-7. Especially considering Steph is hurt. We play 18 games vs the leastern conference, 9 at home including Chicago, Miami, Orlando, and Boston. 3 games vs Spurs.
We’re not as deep as some of youz think. Kwame is kwame, and we will have to rely too much on rookies to create depth.
For us to even remotly qualify for the playoffs things have to fall in perfect pieces for us, everyone has to play out of their minds and show us things we’ve never seen from them. I like Coach Jackson, and wanted him since mid last year, but he is so far behind the 8 ball already (limited practice time, roster that isnt really that good) that this season is bunk.
Let Curry sit until he’s healed, and let’s save our pick.
by dsham001 on Dec 24, 2011 5:21 PM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Goes for every team, but injuries will be key.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
With a very similar roster to last season, success lies in our new coaching.
Now I’m aware good coaching in football probably has more impact on success than good coaching in basketball, but I can’t help but see some similarities between this year’s 49ers and our current Dubs. Right off the bat, I’m not suggesting this team can have the success that the Niners have had (winning their division with one of the best records in the NFL). I am suggesting that our new coaches can take a team with the same starting unit from last season and an improved bench (my opinion) to the playoffs.
Looking at the Niners, they’ve had the talent to be successful for a while. Honestly, they’ve been a great defensive team and mediocre offensive team (including this year) for the past few years. The great plays I’ve seen this season were there in recent past seasons. The difference has been discipline and consistency, both of which I attribute to Harbaugh and his coaching staff. This season, it’s clear they have cut down on the bonehead plays (most apparent in their league best +25 TO differential). They stopped beating themselves with an abundance of costly mistake plays. You know, kind of like the Eagles this year. In this aspect, I think the Dubs are very similar.
I think all Dubs fans should agree, our team loses a lot of games from a litany of head-scratching plays. Given that, true discipline and consistency will go a long way for this team. Limiting stupid turnovers and easy baskets on defense can turn a close loss into a comfortable victory. If you believe our new coaches can get this, to a high degree, out of our team, then you think we have a good shot at the playoffs (whether it’s worth it or not).
As much as I’d love to see Steph have a breakout year, Ellis play to his strengths, Biedrins play aggressive, and so forth, I want to see a team that makes few mistakes game in and game out as a result of discipline and consistency.
That is my last bit of preseason optimism and homerism. Let’s Go Dubs!
Serving it up night in and night out -Steph "The Chef" Curry
by dont_stop_believin' on Dec 24, 2011 11:59 PM PST reply actions
Not many positive people in this party
by Steve B on Dec 25, 2011 7:02 AM PST via mobile reply actions
For what it's worth.... how I think the West will shake out-
1. OKC 47-19- Favorites to do well in condensed schedule. They are young enough to handle back to backs but experienced enough to play together
2. Dallas 43-23- They won’t care much about regular season, just play for playoffs. Despite no Chandler, they are 10-11 players deep. Guys like Delonte at end of bench. They’ll rotate and be fine
2. LAC 43-23- Though typically I expect new teams to struggle, CP3 and Chauncey are winners. So much talent, expect them to continue improving all year
4. Lakers 41-24- Expecting Bynum to break out a bit more. Gasol and Kobe are still good. WAAYY too many american whities to be great though
5. Memphis- 40- 26, expecting them to continue growing. A dangerous side
6. Portland- 38-28, An underrated roster, a tough team. They’ll make playoffs
7. San Antonio 37-29, Age + lack of depth will haunt them in regular seasonm. Still good and really well coached.
8. WARRIORS- 35-31. Have to pick my boys. I think last year with a bench and good coaching we make playoffs. Last year our coach was garbage and we had no bench. Now we might have a bench but we definitely have better coaching. also when we had our front 4 (curry, monta, dorell, Lee) we were 35-33. When Lee or Curry missed games we were 1-13. so yeah, im confident, especially if biedrins bounced back and a couple bench guys produce.
Ultimately this is all based on Steph-o’s knee and our coaching finding ways to utilize him more. Without that, no shot.
9. Houston- 34-32. Very good side, they could easily trump us
10. Denver- 33-33. I’d pick them over the Warriors EXCEPT JR Smith, KMart and Chandler are stuck in china. They aren’t deep or talented enough. And Nene’s an injury waiting to happen
11. Suns 31-35. Nash is a god. Rest of team is not, and Nash is showing age. If Nash goes down i’d pick them to be last. I wouldn’t want to depend on a 37 year old in such a short season
12. Minnesota- 26-40- They will be exciting. A lot of young talent.
13. Sacramento- 25-41- Same as above, however way more headcases and a worse coach
14. Utah- 17-49- Lottery time baby
15. New Orleans- 13-53. Ouch.
And because everyone has been asking 'Taf, what about the east?!'
1. Miami- 51-15. People forget after their 10-11 start, they had best record in NBA. One more year together, young, and more depth. Scary scary
2. Chicago- 47-19. Still good, but no longer a surprise. I expect teams to know how to guard Rose better.
3. NYK 46-20- Gut feeling, this will be Melo’s year. Talent’s always been there but if you hear him, you see maturity and leadership he’s lacked. Chandler is huge for their D and Baron is still good.
I know this one will get scrutinized, but I truly feel he’s maturing as a player and will put up his best efficiency with more assists and similar volume scoring/rebounding.
4. Orlando- 39-29. Assuming Howard stays, they’ll be ok. Only cause of him though
5. Indiana- 38-28. Sleep[er team. George hill, Paul George, Granger, West, Hibbert. Good starting 5. George will break out
6. Boston- 36-30. ROUGH year. They lost their bench with Jeff Green’s heart condition and Delonte gone. No center and you think KG and co. can go back to back? No way.
7. Atlanta- 33-33. Joe Johnson is underrated. Lost Crawford. Might trade Smith. A mess
8. Phili- 32-34. Still same deep team. Will trouble people
--
9. New Jersey- 29-37. Deron’s good. The rest are not
10. Toronto- 25-41. They’ll improve but don’t expect them to be great.
11. Milwaukee- 20-46. Garbage team if Bogut gets hurt
12. Wizards 19-47. Expect them to be fun to watch. JWowww
13. Detroit- 18-48. Rebuild please. Stop signing mediocre players to 10 mil deals
14. Cleveland- 14-52. Kyrie is good!
15. Charlotte- 14-52. Rough rough rough season
Hahah... Kenny Smith picked both the Kings and Warriors to make the playoffs
“I guess you and mark jackson are friends, thats why i picked em”- Chuckster
"There are three teams who are best in west- OKC, Grizzlies, Mavs" - Charles Barkley
He’s got a point, when i think about it.
OKC and Memphis are young/deep enough to sustain the schedule. Dallas are simply deepest team in NBA. A lot of older players but they could legitimately go 12 deep comfortably.
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