David Lee is Not the Problem he is Made Out to be

by sco__lo_pro on Dec 6, 2011 9:55 AM PST

David Lee received a 6 year $80mm contract when he signed with the Dubs. Many (of the Steinmetz disciples) have expressed outrage at the signing and claim it has hindered us in making the big moves that could advance the organization further. I disagree with this premise, and would like to lay out my thinking below.

Nene Hilario and David West are the big FA #4s available this off season and each figure to command about $12mm a season and contacts are likely to be about 4 years or longer - yes, that's likely shorter than Lee's contract which does matter, but he is also younger than both West and Nene. Without outright defending the Lee contract (which is a slippery slope), I think it's simply worth noting that statistically these 3 players are extremely similar, with Lee IMO being a significantly better passer.

While the team could certainly experience a different measure of success with any one of these guys at the 4, the numbers suggest they are largely the same TYPE of player. So ultimately, if your plan was getting a solid 4 you probably have done about as well as you could've hoped with Lee, as neither West nor Nene in place of Lee make you a playoff team.

If you feel the 4 was not what we should have focused on, and instead kept funds available for a FA center - well what do you say if we are able to sign Chandler? Let's be honest Dwight Howard is a pipe dream not what you realistically base a strategy on as the Warriors FO. You game plan for it, but it can't be your #1 option. So, those extra 2 years in Lee's contract may play a big role in being able to land a splash FA, but in all likelihood they will not. And out of the available 4s we probably didn't come out that bad. Not what fans want to hear, because as Warriors fans we love to complain (and for good reason for many years), but this is reality as far as I can see it.

So, really Lee and his contract is not that bad. Well, at least not as bad as many make it out to be. It wouldn't change the franchise to have West or Nene instead of Lee and in all reality he probably doesn't inhibit us from signing someone down the road (someone who would actually consider GS in the first place). One last point - some will argue that David's defense is just SO atrocious. Come on man - defense is a team focus and the Warriors would struggle defensively with West or (gulp) Nene in place of Lee while in the absence of a real legitimate defensive Center. Putting the GSW defensive woes on Lee is convenient but short sighted to say the least.

Here are the numbers http://bkref.com/tiny/uORmU

Player Comparison Finder

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Totals

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Nene Hilario	2003	2011	527	424	15619	2423	4303	.563	2	21	.095	1644	2423	.678	1140	2511	3651	953	658	483	1014	1795	6492
2	David Lee	2006	2011	441	283	13693	2422	4435	.546	1	16	.063	1133	1460	.776	1248	2995	4243	944	372	165	749	1217	5978
3	David West	2004	2011	530	438	17160	3476	7091	.490	34	129	.264	1704	2030	.839	1110	2743	3853	1042	396	435	931	1386	8690

Per Game

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Nene Hilario	2003	2011	527	424	29.6	4.6	8.2	.563	0.0	0.0	.095	3.1	4.6	.678	2.2	4.8	6.9	1.8	1.2	0.9	1.9	3.4	12.3
2	David Lee	2006	2011	441	283	31.0	5.5	10.1	.546	0.0	0.0	.063	2.6	3.3	.776	2.8	6.8	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.4	1.7	2.8	13.6
3	David West	2004	2011	530	438	32.4	6.6	13.4	.490	0.1	0.2	.264	3.2	3.8	.839	2.1	5.2	7.3	2.0	0.7	0.8	1.8	2.6	16.4

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Nene Hilario	2003	2011	527	424	15619	5.6	9.9	.563	0.0	0.0	.095	3.8	5.6	.678	2.6	5.8	8.4	2.2	1.5	1.1	2.3	4.1	15.0
2	David Lee	2006	2011	441	283	13693	6.4	11.7	.546	0.0	0.0	.063	3.0	3.8	.776	3.3	7.9	11.2	2.5	1.0	0.4	2.0	3.2	15.7
3	David West	2004	2011	530	438	17160	7.3	14.9	.490	0.1	0.3	.264	3.6	4.3	.839	2.3	5.8	8.1	2.2	0.8	0.9	2.0	2.9	18.2

Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Nene Hilario	2003	2011	527	15619	17.4	.605	.563	8.4	18.3	13.4	10.0	2.2	2.3	15.9	18.1	113	103	27.4	22.1	49.5	0.152
2	David Lee	2006	2011	441	13693	19.2	.589	.546	10.2	25.4	17.7	11.6	1.4	0.9	12.9	19.0	117	108	29.8	12.6	42.4	0.148
3	David West	2004	2011	530	17160	19.0	.544	.493	7.5	19.2	13.3	11.0	1.2	2.0	10.4	24.3	110	106	27.2	19.8	47.0	0.131

Playoffs

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

				Totals																Shooting			Per Game
Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	FG%	3P%	FT%	MP	PTS	TRB	AST
1	Nene Hilario	2004	2011	44	1298	170	320	0	0	133	211	105	290	91	43	24	72	166	473	.531		.630	29.5	10.8	6.6	2.1
2	David West	2004	2009	24	775	149	327	1	2	86	97	34	169	48	20	29	42	61	385	.456	.500	.887	32.3	16.0	7.0	2.0

Playoffs Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Nene Hilario	2004	2011	44	1298	15.7	.573	.531	9.3	17.1	13.1	11.3	1.7	1.5	14.9	17.0	113	108	2.2	1.1	3.3	0.121
2	David West	2004	2009	24	775	19.1	.521	.457	5.0	20.0	12.5	11.8	1.4	3.3	10.2	25.6	104	106	0.8	0.8	1.6	0.098

Poll

David Lee is not the big problem for the W's that many make him out to be

Totally Agree

121 votes

Disagree and you've done nothing to make me thing otherwise

17 votes

138 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

Most surprisingly to me, the stats shown don’t depict Lee as a better passer than Nene nor West at all. In fact all three look almost identical in terms of AST, AST/TO, and AST%.

by Lacob's Ladder on Dec 6, 2011 10:14 AM PST reply actions

you're right

the numbers don’t suggest he is materially better. i should have factored that in to my comment, but I guess I was thinking of it in terms of how he sees the floor. you’re absolutely right though.

by sco__lo_pro on Dec 6, 2011 10:37 AM PST up reply actions

statistically he might not better

but I think all who have watched Lee understand he is a savvy passer at the 4 spot and id adept at the pick and roll, particularly for a PF. Seems playing along Chandler could only help

by salary_cap on Dec 7, 2011 10:26 PM PST up reply actions

At the same time, anyone who watches Nene can tell you he’s a much more capable scorer and defender than David Lee.

I heard he doesn't like music.

by Reverend_Randy on Dec 9, 2011 3:32 PM PST up reply actions

I always knew d lee wasn't a bad player.

He was an all star for a reason. Many forget that nasty bite from that twilight fan in ny. That affected him throughout the season.
Bottom line is:
D lee decent post game
Above average mid range shot
Under rated passer
Great team player
Below average defender

by macdreboi on Dec 6, 2011 10:24 AM PST via mobile reply actions

I think it’s simply worth noting that statistically these 3 players are extremely similar,

Depends what statistics you’re looking at. In terms of points, rebounds, and fg% they look pretty similar. In terms of their impact on winning basketball over the last two seasons, Nene > Lee and West, and it’s not close.

Two-year adjusted plus-minus
Nene +8.56
West -2.17
Lee -3.24

Even allowing a wide berth for the “noise” of plus-minus, that’s a pretty shocking difference. How does Lee end up with a negative impact on the game, despite being an efficient scorer, decent rebounder, and good passer? Well, defense is half the game, and the general consensus among Lee’s critics is that he’s not just bad on D, but among the NBA’s absolute worst.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 6, 2011 10:38 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

darn... thanks to sleepy for ruining the positive spin ( :

lee needs to get into a couple bar fights and grow a chip on his shoulder.
and grow a beard imo.

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 6, 2011 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

a beard would be pretty epic. bay area and those beards lol.

curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.

by bimmercirem3 on Dec 6, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions

+1 on the beard

by Lacob's Ladder on Dec 6, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions

At least he has a nasty scar and part of Wilson Chandler's tooth in his elbow.

That’s a good start.

by Pippen on Dec 6, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions

In all fairness, in the last two years (since that’s what we’re looking at here, I guess), Nene’s been on a better team than Lee both defensively as well as overall record, which would most certainly skew +/- numbers in his favor.

Were there many players on 30ish win teams that played a significant amount and yet own a favorable +/- number? I’m honestly curious…

by Lacob's Ladder on Dec 6, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions

Nene’s been on a better team than Lee both defensively as well as overall record, which would most certainly skew +/- numbers in his favor.

Not really; adjusted plus-minus is designed to correct for that. Some players with positive APM, despite mediocre-to-bad teams:

Curry +5.84
Dorell +5.59
Griffin +6.04
Nash +11.39
Love +2.98

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 6, 2011 11:29 AM PST up reply actions

Thanks for setting me straight, Sleepy

And where might one find these magical APM stats? :)

by Lacob's Ladder on Dec 6, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions

I usually go to basketball value. There’s also 82games and of course our own Evanz’s blog with his intriguing EZPM model. Each of these has its own “adjusting” methodology, but they all tend to be in the same ballpark on most players.

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 6, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks much

Just read Evanz’s primer as well on the front page. After some research into RAPM I’m convinced we need to get Rashard Lewis for cheap after he’s amnestied. Who knew!

by Lacob's Ladder on Dec 6, 2011 2:05 PM PST up reply actions

A bit of an aside, but it is unfortunate how Lewis is percieved.

He was a very good player in Seattle, and was an excellent player for those Orlando teams. He was overpaid with the Magic, yes, but he was a huge part of their success.

by Spider Jerusalem on Dec 7, 2011 2:36 PM PST up reply actions

I completely agree.

Most look at it from a contract viewpoint and i agree, its a nasty contract. But i guess that is what it takes to lure a FA to GSW when you’re known as a bottom team. However, Lee’s game should not be brought down by that fact alone.

Including all you said, it was his first year playing here. Played with a nonsufficient center forcing Lee to make up for most of the offense and essentially playing as both center and power forwards at times. Of course his numbers will go down ina transition season. Only this season should we criticize him like we did the past season.

Steinmetz makes good points, but overall hes for completely overhauling the team just so we can get a team that looks like a “steinmetz” team, which i still don’t know. He want Monta over Curry for one as the future, which most of us will disagree. He isn’t a Warriors fan btw but that doesnt really affect the point that much.

Back to Lee. Overall if we sync him up with a defending and rebounding talent such as Chandler, we should be golden. I mean cmon, the guy actually changed the dynamic of the “soft” dallas mavs. People would say they have dirk. Ok thats true, but how many times have they failed before last season…too many.

curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.

by bimmercirem3 on Dec 6, 2011 11:10 AM PST reply actions

I’ve been saying it for a while now- he was injured, in his first year with a new team, completely underutilized by an incompetent head coach, forced to play alongside a useless center, etc.

However, I think the main argument around here against the Lee contract was that it was one of those moves that made the team too good to have a decent draft pick and not nearly good enough to contend in the playoffs. That, and the salary limited other options in FA. But I agree that the salary compared to what he offers (which I believe we have yet to see) is not unreasonable (yes, I’m going double-negative on you).

by ERock386 on Dec 6, 2011 4:15 PM PST reply actions

Lee's contract is not the only problem but one of many problems...

I appreciate trying to take a positive spin but there is no way around the facts. David Lee’s contract is an albatross. There is a reason why David Lee is un-tradeable. 5 years and 80 million dollars for a fringe all-star that plays no defense is a horrible contract that needs to be amnestied ASAP. The projections you wrote in your post say everything that we need to know about this situation. You write how Nene, West and Lee are very similar players but then go on to say that Nene and West will likely make 4 years and 48 million. That is a HUGE difference than 5 years 80 million. That is why David Lee is a problem. He isn’t good enough to separate himself from other power forwards around the league that make much less money than him.

by JimBarnett2KevinGarnett on Dec 6, 2011 4:42 PM PST reply actions

6 yr $80 mil with 5 years left

Nene will likely make more than Lee. Nene is arguably the better player, but Lee is younger.

The timing of the CBA really hurt the Warriors. If the CBA had expired a year earlier, Lee would have been eligible for 5 years at the most. Oh well…

by ERock386 on Dec 6, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions

"Arguably" the better player??

by Ronaldinho on Dec 6, 2011 11:06 PM PST up reply actions

Over the life of the contract if Nene signs for 5 yrs, I think it’s at least arguable.

by ERock386 on Dec 6, 2011 11:48 PM PST up reply actions

ya gotta think that a fair contract for Lee would have beeen something like 6/54.

Then we would love Lee and what he does and what he could do in a trade .. but 6/80??/
AMNESTY!

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Dec 7, 2011 8:47 AM PST up reply actions

Not disagreeing with you, but there’s no way Lee agrees to come here for that money. The Warriors really liked him and were willing to overpay him. Period.

Which is why it’s ridiculous to think they would amnesty him after one year like some are hoping for.

by ERock386 on Dec 8, 2011 12:36 AM PST up reply actions

yes i agree, but what are the other problems?

we all can agree his contract is huge, but what other problems can we blame him for?

curry & iggy TEAM USA buddies.

by bimmercirem3 on Dec 6, 2011 5:33 PM PST up reply actions

COmpletely disagree with the post

David Lee is absolutely the problem for a number of reasons. His contract makes him untradeable and he is paid like a superstar, but isn’t even close to one (if he was, we would have been at least a decent team last year). He plays zero defense (kind of important to winning) and his contract means it is really tough for us to improve our defense since Curry and Monta are already poor defenders.

Everyone keeps mentioning his rebounding – but how come the warriors (and the knicks when Lee was on them) grabbed a higher percentage of rebounds when Lee is off the floor? Its not a fluke, its happened over his whole career….

by TontheDon on Dec 6, 2011 5:35 PM PST reply actions

At what amount does superstar pay begin?

by polar on Dec 7, 2011 12:17 PM PST reply actions

I think the core truth here

is that pay and “superstar” are correlated, but not causally

"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep

by Duby Dub Dubs on Dec 7, 2011 2:29 PM PST up reply actions

people complain about Stoudemire's defense

Is Stoudemire not a superstar? Does one need to be a good defender to be a superstar?

by polar on Dec 7, 2011 12:19 PM PST reply actions

I don't think that Amare is a superstar.

But the word has different connotations to different people. Certainly Amare is much-hyped, like all volume scorers. He gets a lot of press attention.

By that measure, guys like him, Monta, and Carmelo are superstars.

But by the measure of actually helping their teams win …

… Amare is a very very good player. But he’s a clear step (or two) down from guys like LeBron, KD, Chris Paul, etc.

by Ronaldinho on Dec 7, 2011 12:23 PM PST up reply actions