Foul Differential is Killing Us

by b.radley on Feb 4, 2011 12:20 PM PST

It "feels" like we're getting out-free-throwed every game, and it's been driving me crazy, so I finally went and took a look at the numbers...

I was right: we're getting killed in foul differential. We're fourth in fouls committed, and last in opponents fouls committed. As a result, we're dead last in FTs attempted and our opponents are #2 in the league. The made FT differential is 305 through 48 games. That's 6.4 PPG we're giving up on average to FTs. Meanwhile, our total PPG differential is 2.9. So on average we're losing by 2.9 points over the season, and we're giving up 6.4 extra PPG from FTs.

Obviously there are many variables that come into play in getting to those numbers (e.g. weak exterior defenders = more penetrations by opponent PGs = defensive breakdowns = scrambling, reaching, fouls)...so it's not all about getting one guy to draw more fouls. But those numbers just jump out and slap you like a wet noodle.

Stats here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2011.html

Thoughts?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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drive in more?

If you do watch the games, the players tend to shoot a lot more and not drive in. That’s why we are behind in FT attempt. If we could get D Wright, Monta, Reggie, and others to drive in more often, the chances of getting fouled is higher.

Also refs tend to lean towards the other team whenever they play the warriors.

by I.Eat.Sleep.Warriors on Feb 4, 2011 12:29 PM PST reply actions

Also refs tend to lean towards the other team whenever they play the warriors.

Oh yeah. Definitely a league wide conspiracy against the Warriors. Or maybe it’s just that it’s natural for a fan to perceive his team as getting screwed, even when it’s not the truth?

by Missing Barry on Feb 4, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs

Rec'd for truth

"I tell him straight, 'If you're going to lead, you have to be the first to practice. You have to come in, get your work down and be prepared for practice,' " assistant coach Keith Smart said. "He needs to figure out why he is having stomach problems and he's got to watch how LeBron (James), Kobe (Bryant) and D-Wade (Dwyane Wade) work. He needs to mimic that if he wants his teammates to speak volumes about him." -Keith Smart on Motna Ellis

by ejdacanay on Feb 4, 2011 3:11 PM PST up reply actions

Maybe not a conspiracy

But the refs do discuss what is to be expected from teams before tip-off. They might voice concerns about the Warriors particular brand of sloppy defense, and I think this gives them an itchy trigger finger and maybe unjustly plants a seed when a call can truly go either way.

by lilboots on Feb 4, 2011 7:52 PM PST up reply actions

defensive identity

If your team is known as an aggressive defense, refs will let them play rough. But if your team is known as a soft defensive team and they try to play more aggressively, refs will call it most of the time. (remember when the Heat were playing super aggressive and we were getting NO CALLS for their rough play while we were giving them AND1’s every damn possession)

by Monta THE Boss on Feb 5, 2011 1:27 AM PST up reply actions

I honestly thought that had more to do with the Heat’s status as an elite team than anything else. Better players have the respect of the officials. It just seemed to be another case of allowing the players to influence the calls. We’re not convincing in either our style or talent on that end.

by lilboots on Feb 5, 2011 1:45 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

What I've read

is that it isn’t just better teams, but more veteran players. Derek Fisher gets the most questionable charge calls in the league and he isn’t any good.

That third guitar note you played just now was perfect, dogg. Maybe play it again a little later alright.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 5, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions

This.

Derek Fisher is no superstar and is a class act d bag on the floor. Yet he gets every call as he hacks play after play and flop flop flops.

Keith Smart is challenging Red Auerbach to be the greatest coach of all time.

by GovernorStephCurry on Feb 5, 2011 10:58 PM PST up reply actions

a class act d bag

Holy oxymoron, Batman!

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 7, 2011 4:06 AM PST up reply actions

It was supposed to be ironic!

Keith Smart is challenging Red Auerbach to be the greatest coach of all time.

by GovernorStephCurry on Feb 7, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions

Numbers don't lie

I’ve watched this team meticulously for the better of 10 years now and it is, sorry, but those numbers prove it and if you watch the games you can’t say other teams don’t get away with hacking the crap out of our players, throwing them out of bounds drawing crap charge calls and the like.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions

Those numbers don’t prove anything other than we draw less fouls than our opponents.

if you watch the games you can’t say other teams don’t get away with hacking the crap out of our players, throwing them out of bounds drawing crap charge calls and the like.

I believe that’s exactly what I just did do.

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 1:51 PM PST up reply actions

Or the Refs call more fouls against us and less on the opponents

on a nightly basis causing us to lose most of our games.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 3:09 PM PST up reply actions

Or the Refs call more fouls against us and less on the opponents

Right, because we foul more and get fouled less.

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions

there are multiple ways to interpret the numbers. I see them and I think we have a soft team that fouls too much. I don’t believe in conspiracies.

That third guitar note you played just now was perfect, dogg. Maybe play it again a little later alright.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2011 1:46 PM PST up reply actions

if you watch the games you can’t say other teams don’t get away with hacking the crap out of our players, throwing them out of bounds drawing crap charge calls and the like.

Haha, ok mama Ellis, we hear you, don’t fret Montay will be home soon.

Lights please, lights please, turn off the lights.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Feb 7, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions

Curry, Monta, Dorell, Lee, and Biedrins all struggle to get to the line. Biedrins the most so, and he fouls a good amount. Monta’s differential is ok, but a lot of fouls on the bigs are his fault for jumping the gun, going for the steal, and leaving them vulnerable. Curry fouls a ton for a guard, but he gets to the line decently now. Lee actually has the best differential of our starters. He rarely fouls. Dorell is almost neutral because he never fouls but he never gets fouled really…..
Lou, Gad, and Vlad foul a lot. they don’t get to the line much. Reggie fouls a decent amount.

This team has some issues in that department.

Keith Smart is challenging Red Auerbach to be the greatest coach of all time.

by GovernorStephCurry on Feb 4, 2011 2:31 PM PST reply actions

Of course Lee never fouls, no reason to when you’re not playing any D!

by Missing Barry on Feb 4, 2011 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

Notice i didn't really praise him for that....haha

Keith Smart is challenging Red Auerbach to be the greatest coach of all time.

by GovernorStephCurry on Feb 4, 2011 11:07 PM PST up reply actions

Our bigs can't defend anyone with out fouling

Also, “Ref you suck!”

by Billy Frijoles on Feb 4, 2011 2:48 PM PST reply actions

REF YOU SUCK!

by Monta THE Boss on Feb 5, 2011 1:22 AM PST up reply actions

On offense, we’re dead last in the league in FTA/FGA. On defense, we’re second worst, with only the Jazz being worse. So yeah, I think you’ve hit the nail on the head of one of our biggest problems. FT’s are the most efficient shot there is, and it’s killing us. The only other area that’s really hurting us that badly is defensive rebounding.

by Missing Barry on Feb 4, 2011 2:57 PM PST reply actions

Don’t forget opponent shooting efficiency. We’re rather terrible at effective FG% allowed too. It’s not abysmal, but neither is it anything close to acceptable.

Being near the bottom of the league in 2 of the “4 factors” on defense and being in the bottom third of the league in another means we’re doing far more wrong than right on defense. The turnovers generated has been a positive, but unfortunately, it seems to have much less influence on game outcome than rebounding or opp_effectiveFG%. And I suspect that the way we get many of the turnovers, gambling for steals leads to easy buckets at times and stupid fouls at others.

In terms of the foul differential, unfortunately, the ability to get to the line seems to be one of the more stable things in the game. Without roster changes, the number of fouls we draw and, as a byproduct, the number FTs we shoot is unlikely to change substantially. Fouls committed is an area where players see more chance of improvement. It’s not to say that it’s easy to improve, but it can happen.

The problem stems from several guys who are simply defensively over-matched. Some guys compensate by stupid reaching fouls like Curry is prone to do. Others simply play the matador defense, which usually equates to more fouls on your big men unless they’re really good at being a final line of defense. Our big men are not good at this. Half of them hack away and get called for the foul, the other half don’t even seem to have the instincts to be close enough to put up that much fight.

by jae on Feb 4, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

It's not just that we're bad in the fouls/free throws department

It’s that we’re orders of magnitude worse than everyother team:



Name	FT Diff

OKC	7.66

DEN	7.18

MIA	6.79

SAS	6.64

LAL	5.57

CHA	4.03

NOR	2.47

CLE	2.47

DAL	1.94

ORL	1.8

HOU	1.78

PHO	1.41

CHI	1.39

ATL	1.21

LAC	0.16

MIL	-0.24

NYK	-0.62

MEM	-0.92

DET	-1.63

PHI	-2.3

TOR	-2.93

SAC	-3.25

BOS	-3.69

NJN	-3.7

WAS	-3.74

UTH	-4.03

POR	-4.86

IND	-5.3

MIN	-5.59

GSW	-10.19

Basically, the Warriors are giving up 7-8 points per game on free throw differential alone.

Monta Ellis's #1 Fan!!!
*Note: This post probably doesn't exist. The author of this post has to be dreaming. He's going to wake up and it's going to be November 1st again. Because there's no way that this really happening.*

by philthiest on Feb 4, 2011 3:34 PM PST reply actions

There's no way crooked refs could be a part of this.

Right?

WHAT!??!?!?!?!?!?!

by true torture on Feb 7, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions

Right, I’m glad you understand. Just for fun, can you even think up a plausible sounding reason the refs would have it out for the Warriors specifically? What possible benefit is there of bringing us down?

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions

Because the Warriors are irrelevant in the minds of fans outside of the bay area and

We’re the 5th or 6th largest market in the league no matter if we win or lose. What is Sterns incentive to make us a winner. He rather boost the win percentage of every other team out there where wins and losses determine how many people come to their Arenas. In the case of the Warriors it’s more or less the same if you let us win or lose. The ridiculous amount of calls that are glanced over by the officials nightly is not hard to see if you watch the games. Other teams come into our house and get all the calls including the Timberwolves and the other bottom dwelling teams in the league. Explain rationally the differential or -5 to the closest other team. Last in the league? We’re bad defensively but now way are we that bad, and we do have a fair amount of players that go to the basket with regularity, Monta, Curry, Wright, Biedrins (as of late) Reggie. We don’t get calls and if you can’t see that you my friend are wearing blinders.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 1:05 PM PST up reply actions

In the case of the Warriors it’s more or less the same if you let us win or lose.

This is false.

by jae on Feb 7, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions

How so,

are attendance is pretty consistently at or near the top of the league every season.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 1:44 PM PST up reply actions

How so, are [sic] attendance is pretty consistently at or near the top of the league every season.

Attendance is affected by several things, but winning leads to more people in the seats. This is true in all markets, even in Oakland. The Warriors are not “at or near the top of the league every season” unless you have a very, very wide range of what you consider “top of the league.”

Our attendance in 09-10 was 11th in terms of seats filled per game, 14th in terms of percent of capacity. This is a pretty “middle of the pack”. We’re 11th and 13th in those respects this year.

Compare this to 07-08, a 48win season after a playoff appearance, and you’ll see in that year we were 4th in terms of percentage of capacity (somehow above 100% of the listed capacity of the arena) and 6th in raw numbers, limited by not having more seats to sell.

This team, like all others, sells more seats when the team does better.

by jae on Feb 7, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions

We’re the 5th or 6th largest market in the league no matter if we win or lose

In what world does it make sense to try to keep one of the biggest markets in the league down? It doesn’t.

What is Sterns incentive to make us a winner.

Revenue? Hey, you know what’s not a good business strategy? Let an ownership group (and it takes a lot of money to buy an NBA franchise, meaning there aren’t that many potential buyers out there) come in, get a franchise, and immediately start intentionally screwing them over. That will really make the NBA an attractive investment (sarcasm).

He rather boost the win percentage of every other team out there where wins and losses determine how many people come to their Arenas. In the case of the Warriors it’s more or less the same if you let us win or lose.

I see absolutely no reason to believe this whatsoever. There is a very strong correlation between winning and demand. Why wouldn’t it be true with the Warriors? Attendance is only one factor in revenue – it’s about more than just the number of people who attend, but also the price they pay to attend. Greater demand = higher prices, especially with a set supply. Second, gate receipts aren’t the only form of revenue. Merchandise sales and TV viewership are both big, too. You don’t think a more successful team will increase those? Third, you say people show up to Warriors games, anyways. Have you seen a lot of other teams, especially over in the Eastern part of the country? People don’t attend their games, whether they win or lose. Gotta be consistent with the logic here.

Explain rationally the differential or -5 to the closest other team. Last in the league? We’re bad defensively but now way are we that bad, and we do have a fair amount of players that go to the basket with regularity, Monta, Curry, Wright, Biedrins (as of late) Reggie. We don’t get calls and if you can’t see that you my friend are wearing blinders.

Or maybe I just understand that our players don’t do a good job of getting fouled? Going to the basket isn’t enough. A little bit of contact isn’t enough. You have to create contact that refs actually call. We don’t do that very well. We have guys like Monta and Dorell and Andris who generally avoid contact, rather than creating it. Funny how Maggette got all the calls when he was on the Warriors last year, just like he has his whole career, isn’t it? It’s because it’s about the player, not about the refs.

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 2:00 PM PST up reply actions

I have to disagree

The Warriors get absolutely no respect from the douche Stern on down to the refs.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 3:01 PM PST up reply actions

We just sold for more than any NBA franchise has ever sold before. You don’t think Stern cares/respects us…? Really…?

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions

The Warriors get absolutely no respect from…Stern on down to the refs.

Fans of every team in the NBA believe this is true of their team and their players.

by jae on Feb 7, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

Cool logic, bro.

That third guitar note you played just now was perfect, dogg. Maybe play it again a little later alright.

by Reverend_Randy on Feb 9, 2011 1:49 PM PST up reply actions

a big reason why

We foul a lot is because of our missed field goals. Our misses ignite the transition offense for our opponents because we’re shooting many perimeter shots. It doesn’t allow our bigs to get good defensive position early, and our perimeter defenders are the first guys back. They’re more or less all bad defenders. There’s more to it than this as others have mentioned, but I think this is a factor.

by lilboots on Feb 4, 2011 5:19 PM PST via mobile reply actions

yeah we foul a lot

but teams we play don’t play flawless d either. I want concistency. Calls going against us should be called the same way. I believe we foul a lot but not as much as we are called for. Same goes the other way though. Teams foul way more then they are called for against us.

by BIGBIERINS on Feb 4, 2011 6:18 PM PST up reply actions

There’s no reason whatsoever to think there’s any sort of special bias against the Warriors. Refs consistently call some kinds of contact as fouls. They consistently let other kinds of contact go. On defense, we commit too much of the first kind. On offense, we draw too much of the second kind. The problem is the Warriors. It’s not the refs.

by Missing Barry on Feb 5, 2011 12:23 PM PST up reply actions

Do we have to deal with this issue on a bigger level than other teams, though?

by Missing Barry on Feb 5, 2011 12:22 PM PST up reply actions

it's been getting better lately but we haven't played an elite team lately either.

by BIGBIERINS on Feb 4, 2011 6:16 PM PST reply actions

yes

in the beginning, it drove me crazy. Remember when we gave +50 to HOUSTON!!!!!? We also gave multiple +30 to other teams. That’s freaking 30-50 FREE points.

by Monta THE Boss on Feb 5, 2011 1:24 AM PST up reply actions

STOP THE TOUCH FOULS

PLEASE! If you’re going to foul, GRAB THEM/FOUL THEM HARD! Otherwise, don’t foul at all please, thank you.

But I’m with you on the offensive side. I feel that we don’t get respected as much. David Lee/Monta etc… gets bounced around multiple times in the games and no calls are made…

by Monta THE Boss on Feb 5, 2011 1:21 AM PST reply actions

When i hear we don't get respected...it's mainly fans just being fans.

Corey Maggette was a Warrior. David Stern hates our franchise, and never wants our players to get calls, but this guy always got calls….you know why? Oh wait, it’s not David Stern (even if he is lame in general)…. our players just don’t generate contact in the same way as elite players.

Keith Smart is challenging Red Auerbach to be the greatest coach of all time.

by GovernorStephCurry on Feb 5, 2011 2:00 AM PST up reply actions

No it's because Refs for some reason

have always seemed to give Magette calls for simply running into people and never trying to finish his shot. When Dick Fisher played for the Warriors he didn’t get any calls and definately didn’t get away with all the pushing, shoving, and flopping he does while playing for LALa land.

It's all about the killer cross-over baby!

by warriorsfiend on Feb 7, 2011 3:06 PM PST up reply actions

Right. The refs have always given Maggette those calls because those are what they call. It’s not pretty. Honestly, I’d prefer to see the refs bail out that kind of offensive play less. That said, it IS what they call, and they do it consistently. As for Derek Fisher, his FTA/FGA ratio was higher when he was on the Warriors than his career average. His career high in that category was his single season on the Jazz. So….color me skeptical he’s getting calls he didn’t use to. I’m always open to more evidence, though…

by Missing Barry on Feb 7, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions

I don't really have an opinion, here.

But there is the fact that he was called for the most fouls his two seasons as a Warrior. However, both the fact that he drew more fouls and was called for more fouls are explainable by other means. It could easily be said he shot more free throws because he was a larger part of the offense in both Utah and as Warrior, and therefore was able to create more offense for himself. The higher rate of fouling could have been caused by the lesser defense found in both places, as well (Warriors have been notoriously bad for years and defense in Utah has always consisted of a ton of fouling).

I don’t think the FTA/FGA evidence really disproves anything as far as an official/referee bias, but I’m not really sure what could give credence to it other than an opinion formed from watching games. And in that regard, I don’t think you’ll ever find that everyone agrees. I often feel that the Warriors are not getting calls that they should be getting, but I always sort of try to balance that with the fact that we are bad defensively and not very good overall. Maybe that factors in the minds of the officials, maybe it doesn’t. But over the course of the season, there are always those couple games where we are screwed. And that’s something I’ve always found true, and it always seems to be against teams that are really good and or have superstars. I don’t think there’s any question that we do get the short end of the stick (or phrased differently: our opponents get the benefit of the doubt) sometimes, and it hurts us as a team. However, I do severely question the notion that the league picks on us more than say Minnesota, Cleveland (this year and pre-LeBron), Sacramento, etc. I don’t think that can be argued.

However, it seems very plausible to me that better teams get more favorable calls, whether it’s from referees giving them the benefit of the doubt or something that’s been institutionalized in the NBA. I just don’t think the Warriors are being singled out among the poor teams.

I'm looking forward to the Warriors being led to the playoffs by Monta Ellis AND Stephen Curry.

by Brownie13 on Feb 9, 2011 1:01 PM PST up reply actions

I’m not really sure what could give credence to it other than an opinion formed from watching games.

What could give credence? A systematic analysis of the distribution of calls and evidence of patterns that deviated from a regular distribution. A change in the foul rates for players who changed teams that regularly exceeded normal statistical variation. Either of these are far more useful than ‘watching games’ given that in watching games, we’re almost certainly getting a small sample that can be skewed and are almost certainly influenced by all of the normal perceptional biases that inflict fans. “Just watching” provides no means to determine if we’re seeing something real or simply selectively attributing in order to confirm our bias.

by jae on Feb 9, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

lack of attacking the hoop + no defense, what else is new!?!?!

This team was built to settle for the outside jumper instead of attacking the hoop(except for maybe Monta) compunded by the fact we don’t play any D and when we do “attempt” to defend, its a ticky tack touch foul.
I mean, besides Monta, who on the Dubs attacks the rim? Curry? NO. Beans? NO. D-Lee? NO. D-Wright? Kinda, but really NO with the amount of treys he hoists up.
Why do you think the only go-to guy we have is Monta at the end of games and when he gets bottled up, we are a total FAIL when it comes to closing out games because we always settle for jump shots, which we live and die by?
Remember that fabled 2007 playoff team we had? We had a few guys that could at least drive to the basket and either draw a foul, make a dunk layup, or create a shot for someone else…BD, Monta, StackJack. We had OPTIONS. There are no options during clutch time cept Monta.
Thats a recipe for disaster. We ahve overachieved so far and if the Dubs win 35+ games this year, its really a small, but acceptable achievement.
Lacob needs to put his foot down and give the green light to make household changes for next season to address these 2 issues:
1. sign or trade for 2 top notch defensive minded players..at least one for perimeter stopper and 1 interior stopper. (i.e. and Afflalo, Sefolosha, Prince, Josh Smith, Verajao)
2. sign or trade for players who can create their own shot and attack the rim to even out the amount of perimeter players we have on our roster. We are top heavy with perimeter players. Maybe an Iguodala? or a Gerald Wallace? Just names off the top of my head.

We Believe!!!

by crossphaded on Feb 9, 2011 5:21 PM PST reply actions

I agree with your main points until you get to the end and think we’re overachieving and that 35+ wins is an achievement. We’re not a good team, but we’re not a bad team either. I think we’re better than you do.

by Missing Barry on Feb 9, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions