The Curious Case of the Disappearing David Lee (7/7/2010)
Take a look this piece Tim Kawakami tweeted from this past summer. At the very least this should spark some interesting conversation.
about 1 year ago
Atma Brother ONE
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He was NEVER dominant
A dominant big man would have got NYK closer to playoffs last year (no matter how poor they were). East was weak. Even Toranto was 35-35 in games bosh played.
The Knicks couldn’t crack 30 wins with DLee.
Yes he put up nice stats at center but it was mostly D’antoni. He was too quick for opposing centers. He got easy buckets. At same time, he couldn’t guard any of his counterparts.
All an all, this sounds very Corey Maggette (circa 09/10)- sque.
Not a bad player, just a horribly overpaid one
Agreed.
Lee is, like Corey Maggette, a problematic player.
First off, his defense is nonexistent so he’s a one side of the court player. And while he puts up decent numbers, he’s never been a dominant force. Comparing him to Amar’e is unrealistic because people have gameplanned for Amar’e; not many teams went to NY these past few years thinking, “Man, we’ve got to do something to slow down David Lee!” Realistically, Lee would be a third option on a winning team however if he’s the 3rd option, he needs to focus more on improving his defense or else he’s going to probably end up on the bench during crunch time, when most good teams can’t afford to play a guy who can’t play both ends of the floor.
Lee’s problems have nothing to do with Warriors luck, it has to do with the Warriors once again investing too much money in a player that can put up good numbers on bad teams but not actually produce the wins that Berri likes to pretend he does.
Basketball Stats
This is case no. 453 that basketball stats suck (case no. 1 = Maggette, Corey)
David Lee has not disappeared. He’s exactly the same player he was in NY; in fact, I think he’s improved a bit. But I’m sure someone will quote a bunch of stats to “prove” me wrong.
No, he hasn't improved.
On what basis would you suggest that he’s improved?
The statistical argument that he’s much, much worse is unambiguous, so i wont’ quote the stats. Rather, I’m merely curious what your argument that he’s improved is.
On what basis would you suggest that he’s improved?
Well, I consider the facts that he’s playing a totally different role on a new team with an inexperienced coach. I also consider the fact that Wilson Chandler bit half of Lee’s left elbow, and that fiasco clearly hindered his play.
As some have said later in this thread, Lee is best used as a small center in a pick and roll offense. It is not to Lee’s detriment that he is in some bizarre “motion” offense where the guards often dribble for 20 seconds. If I were coach, I would run pick and roll almost exclusively with Lee, and I would never try to isolate him in the post against superior defenders (like Smart tried against Boston and Atlanta).
I have said this in other threads but it’s relevant here: for whatever reason, Lee and Biedrins just don’t complement each other very well. We could get into the details, but it probably doesn’t really matter. So strategically, I think the Warriors should start an “offensive” unit and come off the bench with a “defensive” unit.
To start the game….Curry/Ellis/Wright/Vlad/Lee. I would go run and gun offense (Nellie-style), especially at home against road-weary opponents. When Curry picks up his usual two fouls, you must come in with Reggie. (Keith Smart foolishly comes in with Law). If Vlad stinks, then I would bring in Lou. When I substitute big men, I would pull BOTH Vlad/Lou and Lee at the same time and insert BOTH Udoh and Biedrins. This lineup, which would look more like Ellis/Reggie/Wright/Udoh/Biedrins, goes for steals on the perimeter, yet still has size, rebounding, and shot-blocking. Points from this lineup should come off defensive rebounds and steals.
So, while this is my particular view of this team, I don’t see how I could possibly blame David Lee for any of this. I thought the sign-and-trade was a bad idea (look it up), one of the main reasons being it was clear Lee’s stats were inflated. I didn’t think he was that good last year, and I don’t think he’s that bad this year. He’s still David Lee, just a year older and wiser.
This is case no. 453 that basketball stats suck
Not all stats agreed with WP and PER.
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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
He is much worse this season
Rebound, shooting percentage and turnover rate are around the worst of his career. Defense is probably the same however.
It seems that all players rebound stats go down once they join the Warriors.
by San Francisco Slim on Mar 4, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
so if Curry left he would be teh best evar?
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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
There's one thing that truly bothers me...
why is it that his FG% has dropped off so much? Is it really that he was used much better in NY? Or is he really just worse? Is the injury still affecting him? I just wish there was a definitive answer to this.
Where do we go from here?
PF v. Center
It’s like Maggette at PF v. SF.
Take advantage of mismatch offensively, but give up a lot defensively. In DLee’s case it’s even worse because he’s not giving better D at PF really (not hat MAggette was good on SFs)
82games.com defines DLee’s minutes at PF and Center as even. (when Vlad/Lou are in he’s defined as center)
PF-.459 efg%
C- .514 efg%
Lee only gets 5 free throw attempts per 48 at PF (6.3 at center)
I can go in more depth on WHY Lee is nopt very good offensively at PF but I won’t (I have before)
On the flipside:
Amare
PF- .500 efg%
C- .514 efg%
while getting to line at almost exact same rate (11 attempts per 48, and he makes 79% of them)
sidenote-
Interestingly on defense, DLee allows
PF- .497 efg%
C- .507 eFfg%
and for the sake of it:
Monta
defensively
v. PGs .443 eFG%
v. SG- .551 eg%
Are these numbers for just this season?
I’m wondering what they would look like for last season and the season before.
Where do we go from here?
Also...
is Lee more effective and are we a better team when he’s at C? Should we run out more smaller lineups even if it goes against what we’re trying to achieve? Basically we’re stuck with him for a while, so shouldn’t we use him the way he’s best. It’s not like he’s really all that much better defending PFs than Cs anyway.
Where do we go from here?
Some of it was the injury. Some of it was the slow start.
Some of it is that he’s taking a greater percentage of jump shots.
Last year he took 7.8 shots/40 min at the rim. This year that number is down to 5.6. Instead, he’s taking MORE shots from 3-9 feet – an extra 1.2/40 min.
Those are worse shots not only because his FG% is worse (65% vs 52%) but because you get fouled less on jump shots, too.
This is consistent with what those of us who’ve been watching us have been saying: the team is using him very poorly, and the result is that he’s taking a lot of mid-range jumpers instead of going to the rim hard on pick-and-rolls.
I see the PF-Center thing, discussed by Tafk, as a fluke. The simple truth is that, regardless of his offensive position, Lee’s offensive game is basically the same. There’s no reason why we can’t run pick-and-rolls when he’s the “center” – but the simple truth is that we’re not doing it.
Part of the problem is injury. Party of the problem is attitude. And part of the problem is that players like their shots, and when the team isn’t running an offense that gets them good shots, players are likely to take mediocre ones. David Lee knows – consciously or not – that a lot of people evaluate his play by simply looking at the “points scored” column in the box score, and is not going to settle for not shooting just because the team isn’t giving him the ball in a position to succeed.
I see the PF-Center thing, discussed by Tafk, as a fluke. The simple truth is that, regardless of his offensive position, Lee’s offensive game is basically the same. There’s no reason why we can’t run pick-and-rolls when he’s the "center" – but the simple truth is that we’re not doing it.
How is it a fluke. It’s a fact. PnR v. a PF, he still has to content with a weakside center contesting a shot (ESPECIALLY when the center can cheat off andris).
When Vlad’s in spreading court, key is more open, easier to finish.
Lee isn’t blake griffin or Amare. Or even Bosh/Pau who aren’t explosive to the hole but their length is hard to guard.
Physical attributes matter in these situations. To maximize Lee’s PnR ability we can’t have a center at the rim altering his shots.
This speaks to your point more 3-9 footers. He’s stopping short cause he can’t go inside.
He’s stopping short cause he can’t go inside.
This isn’t consistent with what I’ve seen.
I haven’t seen the team running P&Rs for him which are getting shut down because of the help.
I’ve seen Lee get the ball 8 feet from the basket, being space by his defender, and taking the shot.
If what you were describing was the truth, we’d expect to see a lot of turnovers or passes under the rim when he couldn’t get the shot off. But we don’t see that. Instead, he’s not going there to begin with.
Part of the reason I have a problem with 82games position numbers is because their methodology about who’s a center, and who’s a PF, is somewhat random, and doesn’t have a lot to do with the player’s role in the offense.
This is my problem here.
There really is no explanation. It’s all opinion to what has hampered him. No matter what it is, I just see a guy that isn’t as good as his numbers (advanced or counting) were in New York. It doesn’t really make sense since this team is actually better than the one he played for last season. Also, we’re the worst rebounding team in the NBA, worse than NY last year. Because the offense around him is better, I’d expect his points to go down. However, I would think that even if he wasn’t being used as effectively as he should be, his percentages wouldn’t suffer nearly as much as they have because he should still be getting better looks playing with better offensive players. The rebounding is just pitiful. Not even close to what I expected. It should have gone up and its gone way down.
All I know for sure is that it seems like the stats were dead wrong in this case.
Where do we go from here?
All I know for sure is that it seems like the stats were dead wrong in this case.
In what way?
I don’t know why you’re so dismissive of the change in how he’s playing. That IS the explanation – he’s taking worse shots. When you take worse shots, your efficiency suffers.
actually
from 3-9 feet, his percentage is 30% vs. 45% last season and he’s taking 1 more shot from that range than last season per 40 minutes. That, in addition to taking 2 fewer shots per 40 at the rim.
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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog
The question is, is this a coaching issue or a player issue?
I say both but Lee’s like Monta, he has some many deficiencies he only works in certain situations.
Steph Curry and Reggie Williams all day baby!
by GovernorStephCurry on Mar 4, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
I feel like the mistake that's often made...
…is that sometimes stats can show that a guy should get an expanded roles but other times it shows that a guy is basically maxing out in his current role. In Lee’s case, it wasn’t that he would become dominant, it was showing that that was basically what a dominant David Lee looked like and it wasn’t all that impressive.
Does that makes sense?
Yeah.
Steph Curry and Reggie Williams all day baby!
by GovernorStephCurry on Mar 4, 2011 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
Berri overrates rebounding period
It’s so simplistic to just look at a rate rebounding total and make an assumption on wins produced. Rebounding matters
Not saying Rebounding doesn't matter. It DOES
But basketball is so much more complicated than TS% and rebounding rate.
Heck, why do Heat struggle so much to close out close games? I mean Lebron and Wade have much superior TS% than most star wings. But when you can’t make a jumper or shoot free throws at a high percentage in end of game situations you will struggle to death to win a game.
And you can push this to Lee v. Amare. Yeah maybe there TS% were similar throughout there career. But Amare is capable of scoring when he wants, getting to rim v. anyone and if not, getting to line. DLee gets swatted
And you can push this to Lee v. Amare. Yeah maybe there TS% were similar throughout there career. But Amare is capable of scoring when he wants, getting to rim v. anyone and if not, getting to line. DLee gets swatted
Meh.
It’s worth pointing out that Amare is operating with a coach who understands exactly what his strengths are, and that yes, they get Amare to the rim, but that’s what their offense is built around.
The Warriors, this season, have chosen to let their identity be Monta creating. Make Corey Maggette the primary creator on the knicks, and you’d see Amare’s production plummet. D’Antoni is smart enough to recognize where his team’s strengths are and play to them. Keith Smart, not so much.
Yes and No
No arguments about D’Antoni v. Smart.
At same time, run down the western conference PFs Lee goes against, and which ones does DLee have a real advantage?
That’s not to mention the fact when we play with Biedrins, thats one extra big man inside ready to contest shots when Lee goes to hoop. Unlike Amare he doesn’t have the power and athleticism to finish as consistently.
To get best out of Lee on pick and roll, he’ll have to play center.
I disagree.
Lee is such a good passer, that if the opposing center left our center alone under the basket, it’s giving up easy points.
The problem is that our two centers can’t convert. Udoh because he sucks offensively and Biedrins because he’s become Mr. Passive.
How is that a disagreement?
They leave our centers because our centers aren’t an offensive threat, lol.
That’s my point. Opposing centers cheat more off andris because they aren’t worried he’ll cut and score like he used to.
Basketballs such a split second game in tight spaces. That 1 foot cheat off can make ALL the difference in Lee finishing and Lee deciding to shoot.
This is just typical ignorant Kawakami BS
As well as a great illustration of the problem I have with statistical analysis. Is any emphasis given in this comparision of Lee this year against his past years with the Knicks, to the difference in how he is being used? How D’Antoni used him versus how Keith Smart used him?
Where Lee moves from being merely a good player to being a great player, is when he is employed AT CENTER, in a small ball unit. That is where he can beat his man up and down the court. That is where he can spread the floor with his jumper. That is where he can use his extraordinary passing and pick and roll ability to cut out the heart of bigger, slower defenses.
Do you really believe that Don Nelson traded for David Lee to use him as Keith Smart has used him? As a third wheel in a big lineup, with Biedrins stinking up the lane and forcing pick and pop instead of pick an roll? Given Biedrins’ epic fail this year, Lee would have gotten far more minutes at 5 under Nellie, and would be having a fabulous season. Much like his past seasons.
by Feltbot on Mar 4, 2011 2:44 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Someone gets it!
bigger, slower defenses.
Do you really believe that Don Nelson traded for David Lee to use him as Keith Smart has used him? As a third wheel in a big lineup, with Biedrins stinking up the lane and forcing pick and pop instead of pick an roll?
I don’t see how people can dispute this point? It’s painfully evident.
Lee played PF before D'Antoni
And his numbers in the two seasons before D’Antoni were as good as his D’Antoni years. Also, according to 82 games he has played as many minutes at C as PF this season (although that hasn’t been updated since Jan. 19, and Udoh seems to be taking the lion’s share of the non-Beidrins center minutes, since then).
I don’t think his inferior Warrior performance can be attributed to his position.
by San Francisco Slim on Mar 4, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions
He's still better than...
Anthony Randolph and Turiaf combined.
"I've got a theory that if you give 100% all of the time, somehow things will work out in the end."
--- Larry Bird
by Army_of_One_Nation(Celtic's Nation) on Mar 4, 2011 10:23 PM PST reply actions


























