SB Nation Bay Area Editor's Pick

A Positive Spin on Monta Ellis

by Evanz on May 15, 2011 7:26 AM PDT

Yes, this is EvanZ. You don't need to adjust your computer monitor. You read that title right. It's Sunday, and I'm feeling positive. Here is a table (posted on my blog yesterday) that may give some hope to Monta "haters" and some vindication to Monta "lovers":

	Player X
Player	Biedrins	Udoh	Radmanovic	Amundson
Curry	-1.90	0.83	2.12	-4.60
Ellis	2.45	4.49	7.58	-2.91
Wright	-0.56	2.73	7.82	-1.11
Lee	-2.07	3.19	-4.59	-4.12
Player X	-0.29	-7.23	-0.51	-3.98
Unit ezPM	-2.36	+4.01	+12.43	-16.72
POSS	1370	704	281	244
OPP GS	54.3	51.0	49.7	52.2
OPP PyWins	44.6	46.2	44.3	52.4

Using the same analysis as in my other recent post on Monta, I looked at the performance of 4 of the most used units this season, which each had Curry+Ellis+Wright+Lee, plus "Player X" (either Biedrins, Udoh, Radman, or Amundson). The numbers in the table are ezPM ratings in that specific unit. The "Unit ezPM" represents the overall cumulative total for that unit. Positive numbers are good. Negative numbers are bad. Below that, you'll find the number of possessions each unit played together (POSS), a weighted average of games started by the opponents against that unit (OPP GS), and an estimate of opponent quality in terms of PyWins using ezPM (OPP PyWins).

The good news here is that in the unit with Udoh (who will presumably be the starter at the beginning of next season), all four of his teammates posted positive numbers against competition that was actually on par or even a little better than what the unit with Biedrins faced. If Ellis posted anywhere near that 4.49 mark next season, he may have a shot at being an All-Star. (Seriously.)

Now, all the caveats that were mentioned in the last post about sample size apply here. I am not claiming that this "proves" anything (I know that probably won't stop people from accusing me of that, though). I'm just throwing this out there, as I said, to be a little positive for a change. If - and that's a BIG IF - if these data hold up next season, I would have to eat some crow on all my Monta "hating" this past year. But you know what? I'd be ecstatic to be able to do that. Man, I'd like nothing better than to root for a winning team. Maybe GSW can be the Memphis of 2012? It's something to hope for.

(Disclaimer: This post does not mean I have jumped on the Monta bandwagon. It simply means that I am trying to think critically, and look for some rational reason for hope as a true Warriors fan.)

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Thank You

Like you said the SSS means this does not prove anything but it does provide reason for hope and that is always a good thing.

by giantsrainman on May 15, 2011 11:32 AM PDT reply actions

Nice to see you taking various angles on your own work

REC

by Doctor Kajita on May 15, 2011 11:57 AM PDT reply actions

I think I'm becoming more willing to give the Curry-Ellis shrimpy backcourt work, IF...

we have effective and versatile defenders at the 3-4-5 positions. Well, we at least need a legit defending bigman, ideally at the 5. Other teams can go small in the backcourt and have success, but I think a very important correlating factor is that they need a guy in the middle to erase mistakes made by the perimeter guys (and let’s face it, defenses can and do break down even with the best of players).

Another key for this team would be a low post front court player. It’d compliment David Lee much better and we’d be able to leave him in the high post, pick and roll, and spot up situations. Adding a guy that needs to be doubled will only do good things for our offense creating open shots for Curry and open lanes for Tay’.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on May 15, 2011 5:10 PM PDT reply actions

The problem is I think we're stuck with David Lee for the next couple of seasons.

And he’s a zero as a help defender.

Quite frankly, I just don’t think David Lee and Monta Ellis can coexist defensively. (Honestly, they’re not the greatest pairing on offense, either).

by Ronaldinho on May 15, 2011 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions

It’d compliment David Lee much better

If he plays better, someone should compliment him. If he doesn’t, why reward him?

by jae on May 15, 2011 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

drats, almost thought I got away clean.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on May 16, 2011 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Here's the other problem:

You’re asking for Dwight Howard. And I agree, he’d be the perfect player for the Warriors (and any other team in existence, including sports other than basketball).

Are there any centers in the league that are: A) lock-down defenders, B) worthy of double-teams in the post, and C) available? With some luck, and likely significant overpayment, the Ws might be able to land either A or B, e.g. Nenê for his offense, or Chandler for his defense. But not both, and certainly not both in the same body.

Formerly ffgolden.

by ivanbe on May 16, 2011 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm open to the possibility that our D-Ho may be in the form of two players.

If we could dump Beans through an amnesty clause or another team’s goodwill (Yeah, I know but still), then we could potentially sign a guy to defend the rim, while drafting a guy like Marcus Morris or Trey Thompkins.

Hopefully we could round out our frontcourt with two defensive guys, Udoh + trade/FA X and Lee and Rookie X. Amundson can be our 5th big for insurance.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on May 16, 2011 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Dallas has proved, once again, that a small backcourt and a defensively weak PF can win in this league.

Now is DLee as dominant offensively as Dirk? Obviously not. But he is a far superior rebounder.

Is Steph Curry as good as JKidd? No, but he’s better than DHarris, and Dallas won 62 games with him as PG.

Is Monta as good as Jason Terry? As a 6th man, he might be better.

So what has Dallas done to turn what we similarly have into a winner year in and year out? Complimentary pieces. Starting with a center that can rebound and defend.

They don’t even have to be of all-star quality. The Mavs were rolling with Diop and Dampier for years while they were getting 50+ wins a season. Biedrins can be that guy, I still believe. All he has to do is rebound and defend. That’s really all he does, when healthy.

Also they have generally always had wings who can defend and score, like DWright. But that’s 1 wing player. How about Jason Richardson?

JRich would be a perfect addition for us. It would allow us to play Monta off the bench. We have the money to do it and after failed runs with Phoenix and and most disappointingly Orlando, he might welcome a return to the bay to end his career.

I wouldn’t mind resigning Vlad or Thornton for less money and a small role.

Finding a serviceable big man shouldn’t be too hard.

DeAndre Jordan is clearly at the top of the list of free agents that wouldn’t cost 9+mil annually. Carl Landry is available. I even remember Dallas playing Drew Gooden and Diop as their center tandem during a 50 win year. Bay Area native Gooden along with Biedrins, Udoh, and Amundson should do the same.

Would these additions make us a contender for a ring? Absolutely not, but they do make us contenders for the playoffs.

As we learned in 07 and as Memphis taught us this year, being in the playoffs is all that matters.

by myk on May 16, 2011 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Disagree with that last sentence. Winning a championship is all that matters. All actions should be geared towards making us contenders. I don’t care if that means tanking a few seasons (and honestly, I think it does in our case).

by belilaugh on May 16, 2011 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Winning a championship is a slow step by step process, unless you are Miami, New York, LA, or Boston.

Dallas got lucky to build around Dirk, Terry, and at one point Finley/Van Exel.

They won enough games with that core for enough seasons to build a “winning culture” that encourages quality vets to sign with them to a somewhat diminished role year in and year out.

I believe that Wright, Lee, Curry, and Ellis can be that core. We just need a couple veterans to come to us, like Van Exel did for Dallas. I would love to see JRich return. Of course some low post help is needed. Unless Biedrins can play like he did when we won 48 games, Udoh makes a huge leap and Amundson can play like he did with Phoenix.

Point is, I think we have the core to put in that “winning culture”, we just need a coupel vets at SG and C to round out the squad.

by myk on May 17, 2011 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Have to strongly disagree that core is going to bring us anywhere. That’s not an intimidating starting 3. No superstar, and 3 players who suck on defense, with only one ball that has to be shared on offense?

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, I wouldn’t say winning a championship is all that matters. It should be the goal, and we should try to make ourselves a long term legitimate contender for the championship, but hey, sometimes ish happens. Sometimes you’re the Jazz, have two legitimate Hall of Fame players, a great team overall, and Michael Jordan happens. I’d still consider them successful.

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Dirk is looking like one of the best offensive players in the history of the game right about now.

24 pts/36 on .612 TS%. Jordan only had one year where he beat both of those numbers. Larry Bird only had one year where he beat both of those numbers.

I also think Lee’s rebounding edge may be exagerated, as it’s not clear if Lee makes his team rebound better as much as you would expect based on his individual rebound numbers. So I don’t know if you an really say that Lee is a far superior rebounder.

Also, Dirk is a much better help defender, which really matters when you’re talking about covering for your backcourt’s deficiencies. Heck, I’m not sure you can call Dirk a bad defensive PF – his defensive +/- this last year was negative (that’s a good thing).

Comparing Lee to Dirk is absurd. Dirk is one of the best players in the game. He is having a season that ranks up there with the best seasons of the best players who ever played the game.

Finding a serviceable big man shouldn’t be too hard.

Actually, it’s really hard. Decent big men are in short supply.

by Ronaldinho on May 16, 2011 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions

I also think Lee’s rebounding edge may be exagerated, as it’s not clear if Lee makes his team rebound better as much as you would expect based on his individual rebound numbers. So I don’t know if you an really say that Lee is a far superior rebounder.

Find this funny, when anyone said this before the season, they got ridiculed and had to look at ‘the numbers’.

Anyway for what it’s worth, the biggest difference between dirk and dlee on the glass is offensive boards. Dlee averages almost 3 times as many per 36 for his career.

On the defensive glass it’s 7.8 to 7.1 per 36 (minor). This makes a lot of sense because Dirk is often far from the hoop on offense, and guess what, so is his man. It doesn’t matter if you don’t rebound that amazingly for your position, if your offense is good enough (and dirks is MORE than good enough) to pull your opponent out of position.

Dirk’s a unique player, the advantage he gives you on offense, can actually help your rebounding because he attracts strong double teams and help defense, and if he misses, half the defense is out of position. If your Center and SF can crash the offensive glass well (chandler and Marion can) he can actually be an edge in terms of team rebounding at pf.

And that’s also why i’ve always been less impressed with Biedrins rebounding than others. He should get every board, he’s never more than 2 feet from the hoop, and likeswise, so is his defender.

by tafkasam on May 17, 2011 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Find this funny, when anyone said this before the season, they got ridiculed and had to look at ‘the numbers’.

Why is it funny? Nobody had presented any evidence to that effect, and there was good reason to believe it wasn’t real. Now we’ve seen evidence.

This is what should happen when somebody presents solid evidence of something you didn’t previously believe to be true: you change your opinion.

Why is it “funny” that people change their opinion when presented with new evidence suggesting their previous opinion was wrong? Do you not think people should change their opinion?

FWIW, I don’t think I “ridiculed” anyone for that, although I was skeptical about it applying to Lee until (I think it was Evanz) did some interesting work to change my mind. (I was quite confident that, for example, Troy Murphy’s rebounding numbers didn’t actually help his team, without asking anyone to run the numbers. People applying that to Lee – without evidence – struck me as quite possibly being an example of “compare a player to a guy of the sam race who plays the same position, or barring that, who went to the same school.” – you know, the same kind of analysis which lambastes Lee as unathletic and Randolph athletic, despite Lee scoring much better on most tests of athleticism.

That said, I’m somewhat undecided on the question at the moment.

by Ronaldinho on May 17, 2011 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Lee is one of the better players in the game. He is also a leader. It is about time folks start recognizing the talent already at hand!

by dinohealth on May 18, 2011 5:36 AM PDT up reply actions

or not

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

"It’s not all about stats…you’ve probably never played basketball in your life. There are things called intangibles. He is what you call a winner. Led his team to a national title. We need people who know how to win. He obviously has to be doing something right." (dhod)

"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely in your thoughts advanced to the state of science." (Lord Kelvin)

by Evanz on May 18, 2011 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Lee is one of the better players in the game.

Can you explain exactly what you mean by this? Top 20? Top 50? Top 500?

There will be no extra point!

by Sleepy Freud on May 18, 2011 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions

in the world?

he’s way better than I am, for sure

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 18, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions

He’d definitely be the best player in either of the intramural leagues I play in. Top 1. Not even a question.

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions

I view Lee as a below average starter, personally.

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

So what has Dallas done to turn what we similarly have into a winner year in and year out? Complimentary pieces.

I’m surprised the player’s union hasn’t objected to the complimentary pieces. I thought that there was a minimum salary for any player.

by jae on May 17, 2011 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions

And jae's campaign for 'complement' contintues.

by Spider Jerusalem on May 18, 2011 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions

continues*

obviously.

by Spider Jerusalem on May 18, 2011 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Campaign?

It’s not like I’m making up new definitions for words. I’m just playing by the rules of the game.

by jae on May 18, 2011 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

he’s just telling you that you’re spelling complementary wrong

by bigkino217 on May 18, 2011 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions

it gets really crazy when we start discussing complimentarity

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 18, 2011 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions

What about JJ Barea

I agree and disagree to a level. Obviously we don’t have as much talent as them, so we’ll never be that good… BUT, Rick Carlilse is an intelligent coach who found a way to scheme the defensively deficient players into being a decent defensive team.

This is my biggest hope with hiring someone like Brown. With the players we got, we’ll never be a top 10 defense. But for once, having a coach who prioritizes defense over up-tempo bball can do us wonders. Team defense can get you a long way to respectability. Concepts we have NEVER used, because ‘we want to run’

by tafkasam on May 17, 2011 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions

I totally agree with the coaching thing, that's going to determine so much for the team.

Mike Brown is a perfect fit. Players seem to like and respect him. I just want a coach that can convince Monta to be a 6th man. Maybe since Casey is in Dallas he could better explain and impliment the Jason Terry role into Monta’s mind and game.

Obviously that is contingent upon us signing a quality veteran SG that Monta and the coach believe is worthy of starting over Monta and taking a good 10+ mins from him. Reggie is NOT that guy. But here are some possible UFA candidates.

Jason Richardson, Tracy McGrady, Michael Redd, and Phoenix has the option to buy out VC15, though that probably wont happen….
I also noticed that Dalembert and Kwame Brown are UFA’s at the center spot.

Also Tayshaun Prince and Kirilenko our UFA’s that could give us a different look off the bench and allow us to play small with Lee at Center.

But there is no way we can do anything about FA’s until we find a coach, I’m hoping that’s resolved in the next week or two.

by myk on May 17, 2011 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions

As pointed out above, I don’t think it’s clear Lee is better at rebounding than Dirk at all. Dirk is also actually a pretty solid defender. He’s not going to anchor your defense, but as a 2nd big man next to a solid defensive C? Dirk more than holds his own. Being tall and fairly athletic goes a long way on D, and if you’ve actually watched Dirk closely on D the last few years, you’ll see the whole notion that Dirk is “soft” is far outdated. He isn’t.

And of course, Dirk is a true powerhouse on offense. He’s a superstar in every sense of the word. Dirk is the perfect example of what a superstar can do for your franchise – your best player really does mean that much to how successful you are. We don’t have a superstar, and until we find one, there’s not even a point in comparing us to Dallas. Without Dirk, that team is pretty irrelevant to the NBA landscape. Kind of like we are, right now.

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions

He’s a superstar in every sense of the word. Dirk is the perfect example of what a superstar can do for your franchise – your best player really does mean that much to how successful you are.

Yup. The key position we need to upgrade, more than any other, is the “best player on the team” position. Whether you think it’s Curry or, should one still be delusional, Monta, your team won’t go very far with either in the role of ‘best player.’

by jae on May 19, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Monta isn’t as terrible as you make him seem.

by DownGoesFrazier30 on May 16, 2011 1:06 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

huh

I kind of thought that was the point of my own post.

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 16, 2011 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions

yes but you did not annoint him the chosen one, to inspire us in this post-jordan era. Therefor.... still hatin'

by tafkasam on May 16, 2011 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions

… what do you mean huh? you make him seem like the worst b ball player on the planet, you must not notice you do that.

by DownGoesFrazier30 on May 16, 2011 3:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

lol you allowed your opinion though

by DownGoesFrazier30 on May 16, 2011 3:18 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

did you read the post at all?

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 16, 2011 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes, I read it twice. I’m not talking about this post though. I’m talking about your negativy towards Monta in general, but whatever.

by DownGoesFrazier30 on May 16, 2011 3:34 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

agreed!

why do you think I wrote this post?

I wanted to give some balance. I thought that much was obvious.

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 16, 2011 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

huh?

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions

I find it surprising Lee is negative with Vlad

But the rest of it makes sense. We space floor, Monta has an open lane, more open shots for Dorell/Curry(who doesn’t necessarily need it), vlad etc.

It’s a big reason I do think we should keep vlad for sign another stretch 4 or a 3 man we can slot for 10 or so minutes per game. Lineup versatility is nice. even someone like Battier who is a true wing would be nice in the 4 role for 7-10 mpg. Of course it’sall match up dependent and I don’t want to go heavy with it, but I do like to force it on many teams and make them uncomfortable.

If we keep our core the same, I’d like to see 3 signings, back up big guard, a 3 man we can slide to 4 for stretches, and a center. 8 man rotation- curry- 36, monta- 36, Dorell- 32, DLee- 36, Center- 30, Udoh- 22, back up wing- 24 back up guard- 24

by tafkasam on May 16, 2011 7:26 AM PDT reply actions

if nothing else...

what people should really take away from this is that stats are extremely context dependent even down to the specific units used on a team. Here, we are just looking at the effect of changing one player, but it has a huge impact on individual stats.

And, of course, much of this may be due to small sample size. But that’s really kind of the point, isn’t it? A coach very rarely has anything other than small sample sizes, except for the top 5 or so units used during a season. After a full season a coach/GM can look back and see what worked or didn’t work and try to adjust, but then the next season you’d be basing your decisions on data that is already a year old. During the season, the coach doesn’t have the luxury of experimenting with a million different lineups and giving them each a large sample size simply to make the stats work, so he has to use prior knowledge and judgement.

I definitely didn’t like Keith Smart’s rotations. But, man, I’m not sure I would want the job of deciding that. I distinctly remember cringing and yelling at my computer monitor at 1 am (EST) watching Smart sub in Radmanovic. But looking back at the full season, it probably made sense at the time. In fact, it looks like Radmanovic should have played more, but specifically in the unit listed in the table. At least, now that I have the ability to break down these lineups, I should be able to do this kind of analysis during the season, and maybe shed some light on rotations in “real-time”.

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The City: A Golden State Warriors-Centric NBA Blog

by Evanz on May 16, 2011 7:52 AM PDT reply actions

Vlad when he's on his game, is useful

We got ‘poor vlad’ in 09/10. Literally one of worst players I’ve seen.

He doesn’t rebound well enough for a 4. We know this. But when he shoots 40% from 3 point range he’s a match up nightmare. Half the time opponents will sub in a small forward and go small. That player is likely to rebound on par with Vlad. Not surprisingly why his rebounding v. opponents rate stats r almost equal (he really doesn’t give us as big a disadvantage on boards as one might think). His D can be good, it’s also very inconsistent, but in terms of fundamentals and ability, he has length, athleticism etc. to bug people when he’s engaged

And then just from a scheming point of view. Him, Curry, Dorell, Monta all across the perimeter makes penetration so easy. No one protecting the rim. Monta can finish well with defense inside, without it’s automatic. If they try to collapse on him, thats where open looks for everyone across perimeter who is 40%+ comes in.

by tafkasam on May 16, 2011 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions

I generally find complaining about rotations in real time to be pointless. I’ve never had the same level of negativity towards Smart’s rotations as others. Long term trends are important in rotations, for sure, but to be honest, there’s never a reason to complain about the decisions in any individual game. For all you know, the guy has been putting in a lot of work and the coach is just trying to reward him. Or maybe send a message to someone who hasn’t been working hard enough. Unless you’re close to the situation, there’s no point in thinking about it.

by Missing Barry on May 19, 2011 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions