Internet Consensus 2011 NBA Mock Draft

via thecity2.files.wordpress.com

If you're like me, at this time of the year, when you're not watching the Finals, you're obsessing over the draft and who we're going to pick. A big part of this obsession is looking through mock draft sites, and there are plenty to find on the internet. I've culled the data from 11 popular internet mock draft sites and put together a composite ranking. See who we're "supposed" to pick at #11. You may be surprised.

AVGRK is the average of all rankings for that player. STDEV is the standard deviation of his rankings. HI and LO are the floor and ceiling, respectively, of AVGRK±STDEV (thought this was more mathematically rigorous than just taking the actual high and low values, which could represent outliers). RANGE = ABS(HI-LO). I've also grouped the picks (by color) according to where I saw a significant gap in the AVGRK.

RANK NAME AVGRK STDEV HI LO RANGE
1 Irving 1.30 0.60 0 2 2
2 Williams 2.20 0.00 2 3 1
3 Knight 3.80 0.82 2 5 3
4 Kanter 4.30 1.22 3 6 3
5 Valanciunas 6.60 1.96 4 9 5
6 Walker 7.20 1.63 5 9 4
7 Vesely 7.40 1.95 5 10 5
8 Leonard 8.30 2.21 6 11 5
9 Burks 12.00 1.38 10 14 4
10 Marc. Morris 12.10 3.07 9 16 7
11 Biyombo 12.50 3.61 8 17 9
12 T. Thompson 13.60 5.26 8 19 11
13 Fredette 14.70 2.46 12 18 6
14 Hamilton 15.80 1.91 13 18 5
15 K. Thompson 16.50 5.51 10 23 13
16 Singleton 17.70 4.50 13 23 10
17 Montiejunas 17.80 4.62 13 23 10
18 Mark. Morris 19.20 2.77 16 22 6
19 Brooks 20.70 2.27 18 23 5
20 Faried 22.40 1.80 20 25 5
21 Harris 23.20 2.26 20 26 6
22 Vucevic 25.20 3.99 21 30 9
23 Selby 26.30 5.56 20 32 12
24 Mirotic 28.00 3.68 24 32 8
25 Honeycutt 28.70 3.86 24 33 9
26 D. Morris 29.70 5.60 24 36 12
27 Nogueira 31.10 4.03 27 36 9
28 Bertans 31.10 2.28 28 34 6
29 Johnson 31.30 3.21 28 35 7
30 Jackson 31.60 3.35 28 35 7
31 Shumpert 31.60 5.29 26 37 11
32 Singler 31.80 3.21 28 36 8
33 Harper 31.90 2.61 29 35 6
34 Tyler 32.40 2.34 30 35 5
35 Lee 32.50 4.20 28 37 9
36 Thompkins 32.70 2.28 30 35 5
37 Smith 32.90 1.76 31 35 4
38 Cole 33.10 3.02 30 37 7
39 Jenkins 33.30 1.19 32 35 3
40 Benson 33.60 1.21 32 35 3
41 Richmond 33.60 1.51 32 36 4
42 Parsons 33.70 1.21 32 35 3
43 Joseph 33.80 0.90 32 35 3
44 Butler 33.80 0.90 32 35 3
45 Leslie 33.80 0.90 32 35 3
46 J. Williams 33.90 0.60 33 35 2
47 Lighty 33.90 0.60 33 35 2
48 Mack 34.00 0.30 33 35 2

Bismack_biyombo_medium

via www.roundballdirect.com

Looks like Bismack Biyombo is the consensus pick at #11 for Golden State. And he is flanked by Marcus Morris and Tristan Thompson. I like Biyombo or Thompson for the pick, and Morris a little less so. Here are the actual rankings for each draft site:

RANK NAME Walter Football NBA-DRAFT.com NBA Draft Room My NBA Draft Hoops World Draft Express Dime Mag Chad Ford Pro Basketball Draft The Hoops Report NBA Draft.net
1 Irving 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
2 Williams 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 Knight 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 4
4 Kanter 3 4 4 4 4 6 4 4 5 4 1
5 Walker 7 7 8 5 9 5 7 7 7 3 7
6 Vesely 4 5 10 8 8 8 9 5 6 6 5
7 Leonard 6 6 11 6 6 7 6 6 8 12 9
8 Valanciunas 9 8 7 7 5 4 5 8 4 9 N/A
9 Burks 10 10 14 10 10 12 10 10 12 10 12
10 Marc. Morris 15 13 9 9 7 9 13 9 16 13 8
11 Biyombo 8 14 12 11 11 10 8 14 9 8 20
12 T. Thompson 13 9 5 13 25 13 11 13 13 15 6
13 Fredette 12 15 15 15 13 15 12 15 15 7 13
14 Hamilton 14 16 18 14 12 14 15 16 14 14 11
15 K. Thompson 17 11 27 12 22 11 18 11 10 11 15
16 Singleton 11 12 19 16 23 19 14 12 11 23 17
17 Montiejunas 20 20 6 20 14 17 16 20 19 16 10
18 Mark. Morris 16 19 13 18 16 16 24 19 17 18 16
19 Brooks 18 18 17 17 19 25 20 18 19 17 19
20 Faried 21 21 24 19 18 20 21 21 18 19 22
21 Harris 26 22 21 22 21 18 19 22 22 21 18
22 Vucevic 22 25 16 21 27 21 25 23 21 20 31
23 Selby 19 17 22 28 29 27 17 17 29 31 27
24 Honeycutt 27 31 20 27 31 23 22 31 27 25 23
25 D. Morris 23 31 23 31 31 31 31 31 23 28 14
26 Mirotic 30 24 31 23 24 31 31 24 31 31 N/A
27 Nogueira 31 31 31 24 20 26 31 31 31 24 31
28 Bertans 29 26 31 26 26 29 31 26 26 30 31
29 Johnson 31 27 25 31 31 31 29 25 30 22 31
30 Jackson 31 23 31 31 31 31 23 27 31 26 31
31 Shumpert 31 31 31 31 15 22 31 31 31 31 31
32 Singler 24 31 31 31 31 24 31 31 24 31 29
33 Harper 31 30 31 25 31 30 27 28 31 31 24
34 Tyler 31 29 31 30 31 31 31 29 25 31 25
35 Lee 31 31 31 29 17 31 31 31 31 31 31
36 Thompkins 25 31 26 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 28
37 Smith 28 31 31 31 31 28 30 31 31 31 26
38 Cole 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 21
39 Jenkins 31 28 31 31 30 31 31 30 28 31 31
40 Benson 31 31 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 27 31
41 Richmond 31 31 31 31 31 31 26 31 31 31 31
42 Parsons 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 27 31
43 Joseph 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
44 Butler 31 31 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31
45 Leslie 31 31 31 31 31 31 28 31 31 31 31
46 J. Williams 31 31 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
47 Lighty 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 29 31
48 Mack 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30

Finally, I calculated the sum of absolute deviations (SAD) for each draft site compared to the consensus ranking. Lower values mean that mock draft is closer to the consensus. I'm interested to see if mocks that are closer to consensus end up actually being more accurate or not ("crowd wisdom" effect). Looks like My NBA Draft.comis currently the closest to the consensus mock.

SITE SAD REACH DROP
My NBA Draft 41 K. Thompson D. Morris
Draft Express 52 K. Thompson Mirotic
Pro Basketball Draft 63 D. Morris Selby
Chad Ford 64 Selby Honeycutt
Dime Mag 65 Jackson Mirotic
Walter Football 68 Singler Harris
NBA-DRAFT 70 Selby Honeycutt
The Hoops Report 72 Johnson Selby
Hoops World 82 Nogueira T. Thompson
NBADraft.net 84 D. Morris Biyombo
NBA Draft Room 105 Montiejunas K. Thompson
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