Analyzing Jerry West's Drafting Record
by doubleteapot on Jun 22, 2011 12:30 AM PDT
Email
PrintJerry West has a reputation as the best, if not one of the best executives in the league. However, how good is he at drafting players? Yes, he traded Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant, which gave him cap space to sign Shaquille O'Neal and create a Lakers dynasty, but he also had a much less memorable run as the executive of the Grizzlies, which culminated in the Pau Gasol trade after he left.
For the purposes of this post, I will ignore the years before the draft shortened to only two rounds. However, I will also be including the 1988 Draft, which was shortened to three rounds. Besides the players he drafted, I will also include trades he made for players after they were drafted but before they were signed.
Also, skip to the bottom for the charts and graphs and stuff, if you don't want to go through every single pick he made.
Lakers
1988 - Drafts David Rivers (25th overall)
1989 - Drafts Vlade Divac (26th overall)
1990 - Drafts Elden Campbell (27th overall) and Tony Smith (51st overall)
1991 - Drafts Anthony Jones (52nd overall)
1992 - Drafts Anthony Peeler (15th overall) and Duane Cooper (36th overall)
1993 - Drafts George Lynch (12th overall) and Nick Van Exel (37th overall)
1994 - Drafts Eddie Jones (10th overall), trades conditional second round pick in 1995 for Anthony Miller from Warriors (39th overall)
1995 - Drafts Frankie King (37th overall)
1996 - Drafts Derek Fisher (24th overall), trades Vlade Divac for the rights to Kobe Bryant
1997 - Drafts DeJuan Wheat (51st overall) and Paul Rogers (53rd overall)
1998 - Drafts Sam Jacobson (26th overall), Ruben Patterson (31st overall) and trades Nick Van Exel for Toby Bailey (45th overall) and the rights to Tyronn Lue
1999 - Drafts Devean George (23rd overall) and John Celestand (30th overall), trades Derek Harper for the rights to Melvin Levett
2000 - Drafts Mark Madsen (29th overall) and trades the 2001 and 2002 second round draft picks for the rights to Corey Hightower
Grizzlies
2002 - Drafts Drew Gooden (4th overall), Robert Archibald (31st overall) and Matt Barnes (45th overall)
2003 - Trades Marcus Banks (13th overall) and Kendrick Perkins (27th overall) for the rights to Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones in a draft-day deal
2004 - Drafts Sergei Lishouk (49th overall)
2005- Drafts Hakim Warrick (19th overall), rights to Lawrence Roberts for the Grizzlies' 2006 and 2007 second round picks
2006 - Drafts Kyle Lowry (24th overall) and trades for the rights to Alexander Johnson, giving up their 2008 second round pick. Trades Shane Battier for the rights to Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift.
2007 - Drafts Mike Conley Jr. (4th overall)
Analysis
This is quite a lot of information to process. It appears as if Jerry West did his best work as a Laker GM, where he drafted well despite the lower picks and traded for Kobe Bryant's rights. However, as the President of Basketball Operations for the Grizzlies, he drafted Drew Gooden over Amare Stoudemire and traded Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones. That said, these moves are defensible because Amare Stoudemire was a question mark and Drew Gooden was the "safe pick" according to draft experts at the time (if you don't believe me check the draft scouting reports at the time). In addition, nobody expected Kendrick Perkins to become an excellent post defender. Jerry West also made some solid picks with the Grizzlies, drafting Mike Conley and trading for Rudy Gay.
Charts
In an attempt to summarize all this data, I will be using charts.
Here's an interesting chart I found summarizing the success of draft picks from 1994 to 2008. How do Jerry West's draft picks compare?
via www.bgsd.com
Jerry West's Draft Picks (click to enlarge)
I associated Jerry West's percentages with a draft position using the charts.
Playing over 100 games: 28
Starting at least 50% of games played: 18
Starting at least 85% of games played: 17
Playing at least 16 minutes: 27
Playing at least 22 minutes: 18
All Star: 21
All NBA: 17
Then, I calculated the mean of those draft positions
Jerry West's expected average draft position: 20.85
Jerry West's actual average draft position: 30.89
In conclusion, Jerry West drafted pretty damn well. He drafted players with talent about ten spots above what would have been expected from his drafting position. The Warriors better let him draft the players instead of Riley or whoever is in the front office.
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
29 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great Post
That Pau Gasol trade was almost even now that you look at it. If he had any part of it, that was good too.
"I'm not a big vegetable guy'' he says. -Tim Lincecum
What about...
Bynum/Fisher/Walton for Monta/Lee???
I wouldnt want Fisher based on principle alone.
by WestCoastWarrior on Jun 22, 2011 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions
In terms of percentages
he drafted about 33% higher. So maybe he will get value about 3 or four picks higher.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Jun 22, 2011 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
So that means instead of the #11 pick, we’re essentially getting the #1 pick? YES.
by Prince.Charming on Jun 22, 2011 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice post.
Something particularly fascinating about that first chart you found: there’s a very distinct trough at 12, followed by a bit of a bounceback through the teens. I’m guessing this is because most of the boom-busts have been picked by 12, and teams in the teens begin picking experienced college players that become “solid” role players.
Also interesting is that huge success gap between picks 5 and 7.
Formerly ffgolden.
yeah, that chart is pretty cool!
Looks like there is a pretty big drop off between the 10th and 11th pick too
Also, +1 on the “nice post”
I appreciate the nice clear summary at the end as well!
In conclusion, Jerry West drafted pretty damn well.
"There’s no such thing as off the charts, just get a bigger piece of paper. If you can’t figure that out you shouldn’t be charting anything" - Skep
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jun 22, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
His All-NBA and All-star stats are booster by Kobe
chances are there isn’t going to be anybody close to him the next 5+ drafts, let alone at where Warriors are drafting.
Jones at 10 is pretty good though.
Let alone someone who will refuse to work out for lottery teams and try to get traded to West's team
Kobe was gained by a unique advantage of the LA market.
West has a keen eye for talent, but his resume is inflated a bit by players like Shaq and Kobe actively wanting to come to LA.
He certainly made some nice moves in Memphis and some poor ones, but found out building a contender is much, much harder in a smaller market.
I appreciate your comment
but understand that I AM ONLY ANALYZING HIS DRAFT RECORD.
Besides Kobe, who basically threatened to go to Italy if the Lakers didn’t draft him, not one of these players said “If the Lakers don’t draft me, I won’t play” His drafting was all due to his ability, not the market size.
He drafted Vlade Divac, Derek Fisher, Nick Van Exel, Matt Barnes, and Kyle Lowry with low first round or second round picks. That’s not a “big market.” That’s “good drafting.”
I will admit his record is slightly increased by Kobe, but understand that even if Kobe had not threatened to go to Italy, only the New Jersey Nets were seriously considering him.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
by doubleteapot on Jun 22, 2011 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I know, I am not bashing you. Thank you for putting in time to do all that research.
I am just saying, that don’t count on him getting us an All-NBA player with 13th pick :)
Yeah, great work with the numbers
I am a number guy. The best answers are still found at the cross-roads of statistics and scouting.
West has drafted well. He is an above average GM. My statement is that his overall perception is inflated by the LA-advantage.
If Kobe had worked out for teams – he would have gone much higher. Would be interesting to see the analysis without him. He was a pretty obvious special circumstance.
Awesome post
This confirms something we hear all the time, but dont see real data on: draft picks in the 20’s can be really solid.
You can almost say it would be better to trade a pick from about 8-19th positions for a veteran and later pick. Your odds of having a useful person on the roster increase and you dont sacrific the potential to find a really good player.
Surprised we dont see more of that activity
to be fair
a good reason that a lot of picks in the 20s are solid is that the spurs are always picking in the 20s
Not very good when you look at picks in the lottery
Instead of looking at all of your charts I just looked at the times jerry west had a lottery pick
1992-#15 anthony peeler(SG) sucks…doug Christie 17, jon barry 19, sprewell 23 all SGs
1993-#12 George Lynch(SF) sucks..sam cassell at 24
1994-#10Eddie Jones good pick
2002- #4drew gooden(PF)average bad value…Nene was drafted at 7, amare at number 9 both are also PF’s
2003- marcus banks(13) and Perkins(27) for troy bell and dahntay jones…wow
2007-#4 Mike conley Jr(above average ok value)…jeff green 5, Noah 10
So considering Jerry West only made 1.5 good picks out of 7 chances when he had a pick that was 15 and below I wouldn’t say he’s a very good drafter and the fact that he’s saying klay Thompson over alec burcs makes me feel even worse(hopefully they are just bluffing)
for some reason i forgot to add Kobe in there
so 2.5 good picks out of 8 chances his choice of kobe was obviously spectacular, but choosing gooden over Amare and Nene is pretty terrible. Plus he was a good GM with a good team but a bad GM with a sub par to average team(grizzlies) so how will he turn out for the warriors…only time will tell
Gooden was a no-brainer over Amare and Nene
Amare was a head case in high school
A common misconception
Thanks for the detailed post, it was a very interesting read. As I skimmed the intro, however, I was struck once again by how many people have the impression that West was not good at Memphis. Or as you put it, less then memorable.
However, before West came to Memphis, they had never won more then 23 games in a season. One year in, and the Griz won 50 games, making the playoffs for the first time. They made the playoffs four straight years. West was the NBA Executive of the Year in 2004, and he hired the 2004 Coach of the Year Hubie Brown.
Considering the past track record and the inherent disadvantages of Memphis vs LA, it could be argued that Memphis was West’s best work.
Don't play a dangerous game.
Great post.
I think West’s strength is in the people he knows and he knows Mychal Thompson (as Lakers GM) and his son.
Also, Klay’s shot reminds me of Jerry West’s. Anyone else think so?
The following Cougars article says West just drafted himself.
http://washingtonstate.scout.com/2/1081993.html
"Go ahead. Make my day."
I have seen Jerry West shoot jumpers in a game against the Knicks at the Garden.
It was in the mid-to late sixties, I think. I sat about 20 rows back, off center, looking diagonally at the basket he was shooting at . I was in my teens. I will never forget the bullet-like trajectory to the back of the rim, deep range of his jumpshot, and quick release off the dribble. He went for 35 points that night, and I recall Clyde (Walt Frazier) was on the floor. It was a regular season game between LA and the Knicks. I was a point-guard-in-the-making, and I remember it expanded my perspective, as I realized that someone can shoot such bullets from so deep! I have only seen videos of Klay Thompson. The first difference I see in his jump shot vis-a-vis West’s, is that it has more of a trajectory, he shoots more on a float, and it swishes the net when it goes in. Jerry’s jumper had more follow through toward the basket, hit the back of the rim most of the time when it went in, and had an amazingly straight trajectory. He was more of a rapid-fire, bullet straight, efficient, killer!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
"UNSTOPPABLE BABY!"
Golden State Warriors rookie Marc Jackson to the Mavericks' bench, after hitting a lay-up during a 29-point loss (2000)
NBA Playoffs Content Module
Related FanPosts on Golden State Of Mind
Related FanShots on Golden State Of Mind
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Most Commented
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Shaquille O’Neal is in a Chinese beer commercial, too (VIDEO)
- ‘Deep Thoughts’ and Cheap Thoughts: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- C-a-C: This is probably as close to LeBron James working with John Waters as we’ll ever get
- Dwyane Wade’s hot pink pants: The kind of thing you can get away with when you drop 41
- Lamar Odom to New York? Dwight Howard on the move? For now, it’s all talk
