Synergy Recap: Philadelphia 76ers 107 @ Golden State Warriors 79 (12/31/11)

stats

First of all, Happy New Year, everyone! And I won't blame you if you don't want to look at these numbers after last night's disappointing (to say the least) performance by the Monta-less Warriors (this is the part where I say, hey, small sample size, just one game, yada yada, but still...). But for those who do venture beyond the jump, I do have something new for you...

So, here's the new thing:

Expected Synergy Stats

The math behind this is actually relatively simple. I take a prior average for the % each play is run and the efficiency (PPP) for each team. Right now, I'm using last season's data, but as the season progresses, I will start to blend the current season. The expected rate and PPP is then the simple average between the offense of one team and the defense of the other team for each play type. Here is what the expected Synergy stats looked like for last night's game:

EXPECTED

GSW

PHI

PLAY

%

PPP

%

PPP

ALL

0.93

0.95

BALL

13.0%

0.87

10.3%

0.81

CUT

7.1%

1.18

8.1%

1.21

HAND

2.3%

0.95

2.7%

0.91

ISO

12.8%

0.85

12.3%

0.85

OTHER

6.5%

0.41

6.9%

0.45

POST

8.5%

0.82

9.4%

0.92

REB

6.1%

0.99

6.2%

1.06

ROLL

5.2%

0.99

4.6%

0.97

SCREEN

5.0%

0.89

4.4%

0.89

SPOT

19.4%

1.01

19.3%

0.98

TRANS

12.2%

1.16

14.1%

1.18

The top line (ALL) gives the overall predicted team efficiency (0.93 for GSW and 0.95 for PHI). Now let's look at what really happened:

PHI@GSW

GSW

PHI

%

#

PPP

%

#

PPP

ALL

100.0%

103

0.75

100.0%

106

0.95

BALL

5.8%

6

1.17

4.7%

5

0.60

CUT

11.7%

12

0.58

5.7%

6

1.17

HAND

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.8%

3

1.00

ISO

19.4%

20

0.50

18.9%

20

0.70

OTHER

1.0%

1

0.00

1.9%

2

1.00

POST

8.7%

9

0.78

8.5%

9

1.00

REB

8.7%

9

0.89

6.6%

7

0.86

ROLL

4.9%

5

0.80

2.8%

3

1.33

SCREEN

6.8%

7

0.71

1.9%

2

1.50

SPOT

17.5%

18

0.89

26.4%

28

0.96

TRANS

15.5%

16

0.81

19.8%

21

1.10

As you can see, PHI lived up to their end of the bargain, going for a 0.95 PPP exactly. But we, um, did not quite live up to expectations, managing a pathetic 0.75 PPP. Much of this was due to going 0.5 PPP on ISO plays and an extremely low 0.58 PPP on cut plays (which are usually among the most efficient plays a team can get). Also, our efficiency in transition was only 0.81 PPP compared to the expected 1.16. In short, we played like crap.

Here's a Treemap representation of the game. The area of each tile represents the %-rate and the color represents the efficiency (red is hotter, blue is colder). Click on each tile to pop-up the % and PPP.

Synergy Treemap

Reference

These are the reference rates on offense and defense from last season used to calculated the expected numbers shown above.

2010-11 Offense


GSW

PHI

%

PPP

%

PPP

ALL

100.0%

0.95

100.0%

0.94

BALL

13.7%

0.88

11.5%

0.83

CUT

7.4%

1.19

7.6%

1.21

HAND

2.2%

0.99

3.2%

0.80

ISO

14.0%

0.85

13.9%

0.82

OTHER

6.6%

0.39

6.1%

0.50

POST

6.6%

0.76

8.8%

0.93

REB

6.1%

0.98

5.9%

1.05

ROLL

5.2%

0.96

5.2%

0.91

SCREEN

4.6%

0.86

4.0%

0.83

SPOT

20.2%

1.05

19.5%

0.94

TRANS

13.4%

1.20

14.3%

1.19


2010-11 Defense


GSW

PHI

%

PPP

%

PPP

ALL

100.0%

0.92

100.0%

0.88

BALL

9.0%

0.78

12.3%

0.86

CUT

8.5%

1.21

6.7%

1.17

HAND

2.1%

1.01

2.4%

0.90

ISO

10.6%

0.88

11.5%

0.85

OTHER

7.6%

0.40

6.4%

0.42

POST

9.9%

0.91

10.3%

0.87

REB

6.4%

1.07

6.0%

0.99

ROLL

3.9%

1.02

5.2%

1.01

SCREEN

4.7%

0.94

5.4%

0.91

SPOT

19.1%

1.02

18.6%

0.97

TRANS

13.8%

1.17

10.9%

1.12

Here are the league average efficiencies from last season. You can use these to compare the values in the tables above. Blue line represents GSW's average.

Off_ppp_play_type_bw_medium

Def_ppp_play_type_bw_medium

Here are the league average rates (% of time each play was run) from last season. GSW is in blue.

Off_play_type_bw_medium

Def_play_type_bw_medium

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