Should Biedrins pass or shoot?

by warriorsvictim on Jan 12, 2012 3:43 PM PST

Maybe some of you stat geniuses out there can provide some real data on this: I am wondering if it makes more sense strategically for Biedrins to shoot or pass when he gets the ball in the paint.

Tonight may be a bad time to test this theory with Howard's blocking ability, but I have a feeling that Biedrins would get fouled on at least 50% of his shots if he really powered towards the hoop without a fear of free throws.

Whether he makes the free throws or not is inconsequential for this discussion, what I am looking at is him puting the opposing big man in foul trouble and potentially changing the game.

Maybe we score 8 fewer points per game as a result of Biedrins offensive ineptitude, but the opposing team gets fewer rebounds and blocks as a result of their big man being in foul trouble tilting the balance in our favor. Is there a way to do the math on this?

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Comments

I would love to see beans to a pump fake here and there and try for more dunks over ppl.

MY GUESS is that beans should be getting the ball down low randomly 10 times a game with the intention of him scoring it. If he is like 1 for 6 on a given night i would probably stop with taht approach tho lol.

But sorry i have no data , im not a stat nerd altho i appreciate their science.

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Jan 12, 2012 4:58 PM PST reply actions

if beans pump fakes

he almost ENSURES that someone will foul him

http://nbawarriors.wordpress.com/

by Brownie13 on Jan 12, 2012 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

I think the free throws absolutely matter

Because it changes the expected outcome. Off the top of my head, I believe each shot would be worth his FG%2 + FT%the probability that he gets fouled, although I suppose the FG% would have to be adjusted to account for the fouls not being included in the normal FG% formula.

My short answer would be that it makes sense for him to shoot if he can get his FT% to a reasonable level. My biggest problem with Beans has been that his reluctance to go inside limits offensive rebound opportunities and allows the defense to “cheat.”

by ERock386 on Jan 12, 2012 5:12 PM PST reply actions

Hoopdata has the stats you’re looking for.

by Missing Barry on Jan 13, 2012 9:46 AM PST reply actions

I dunno.

I don’t feel like we’re seeing gun-shy Biedrins on offense this year like we did last year. Rather, I feel like we’re just seeing an offense where all the plays that might result in a big man getting a ball near the basket are being run for David Lee or occasionally Kwame.

Ultimately, I still think Biedrins’ confidence needs to be treated with kid gloves. He’s an effective player on D right now, but we’ve seen how his FT woes can affect that, so I’m not in a rush to “test” his newfound confidence with intentional trips to the FT line until he settles into his new role a little better.

by Ronaldinho on Jan 13, 2012 11:48 AM PST reply actions

I don’t feel like we’re seeing gun-shy Biedrins on offense this year like we did last year.

his alleyopp dunk before he hurt his was pretty. He just needs to get the ball on the move close enough to not need to put it on the floor. MFJ was a guard once so in between his plotting foul flurries he should be able to come up with a way to achieve some quality Dre touches? Viva Latvia.!!

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 13, 2012 8:43 PM PST up reply actions