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To Tank, or Not To Tank

We are in no man's land, and we all know it.

No playoffs, but too good to keep our draft pick at #7. This isn't about whether our not our roster is good enough to make the playoffs. This is about our current situation: with our current record, it would take a miracle for us to flip the switch and play winning basketball for the rest of the season and close strong enough to make the playoffs.

However, what suprises me and many others, is the fact that many fans are against throwing in the towel on this season and keeping our pick. Sure it is still a bit early to have lost all hope, but realistically thinking, it is very unlikely that we will flip a 180 on this season.

Lets take a look at what draft picks did for the OKC Thunder (Seattle Sonics contributed):

2007: Draft Kevin Durant

2008: Draft Russel Westbrook

2009: Draft James Harden

2010: First round playoff exit

2011: Best record in the NBA.

That is cherry picking the best example, but the point is clear: draft picks are gold.

Other recent draft day turnarounds:

Minnesota - Rubio, Love, Williams
Blazers - Roy and Aldridge (draft day trades)
Clippers - Gordon, Griffin (rare), Aminu
Your Name Here

Why wouldn't you want to keep our #7 pick, especially since the playoffs are looking like a reach this season? You can criticize the Warriors' drafting as a reason to be skeptical, but as you can see from last year's draft this is no longer Riley-says-all. Lacob, West, Riley, Myers, and Jackson were all in the room making the decision together. Hopefully that will mean no more horrendous draft day decisions.

Poll
If Joe Lacob was reading this, what would you tell him?
Please, keep our pick and draft smart.
182 votes
Keep trying for #8 seed, I don't care if we miss the playoffs AND lose our pick
43 votes

225 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

Comment 52 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Let our rookies learn the game, and don’t be scared to take a loss.

by G-State on Jan 30, 2012 8:05 PM PST reply actions  

Um.

Yes. Tank, for the love of god.

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T - A - N - K - M - O - D - E (that's all.)

by Butterknuckles on Jan 30, 2012 8:11 PM PST reply actions  

and trade Monta for a pick

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T - A - N - K - M - O - D - E (that's all.)

by Butterknuckles on Jan 30, 2012 8:12 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

And everybody else.

"If God made us in his image then he must be dumb too, and a little ugly on the side."

Frank Zappa

by qin on Jan 31, 2012 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

draft picks are gold

Agreed, but there may be no need to try to tank. There are currently five teams with worse records. Sacto, NOLA, Charlotte, the Bullets and Detroit. I dont think Detroit will stink that badly over time, although they are pretty awful. New Jersey and the Raptors still play in the East. Phoenix wont get that much worse unless they trade Nash and try to tank as well.

The Warriors have no current center, nor any kind of a presence in the post (any mention of Udoh or Tyler disqualifies you immediately as delusional). They are 28th in rebounding and 28th in points allowed. After the Sacto game, they have 13 games in February – two of those teams have losing records now (Kings and Suns). There are 17 games in March, 6 teams with losing records, but only three of those are at home, and the T Wolves are pretty good. 16 more in April and the worst record now for any team in that month is the 10-12 T Wolves again (twice home and away). In order to win, this team relies on the least consistent and least reliable weapon (outside shooting) that a team can have. And getting Curry and Monta through this grueling schedule without an injury will be tough.

Anyway, you are absolutely right about needing that pick, this is a good draft. We may suck bad enough to get that pick without trying….um, not trying.

by felix botticelli on Jan 30, 2012 8:18 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

Ah but Warrior history would probably dictate us losing the pick and missing the playoffs.

Think of all the March wins. Yea….

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on Jan 31, 2012 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I often recite Hamlets soliloquy at work...

since I’m that miserable at times. But this, is hilarious!.

by esco41510 on Jan 31, 2012 9:08 AM PST up reply actions  

this is so good

rec’d

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 31, 2012 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it works sometimes

It works if there are legit stars available in the draft and you are lucky in the lottery. You also have to be able to draft well.

The Thunder are a good example, but here is another one which is probably more realistic: Charlotte Bobcats

2004: Draft Emeka Okafor #2
2005: Draft Raymond Felton #5
Draft Sean May #12
2006: Draft Adam Morrison #3
2008: Draft DJ Augustin #9
2009: Draft Gerald Henderson #12
2010: Draft Kemba Walker #9

Current record: 3-18

I don’t see the Warriors holding on to their pick this year unless they get lucky in the lottery. There are too many bad team in the league right now. Maybe if they trade Monta for a draft pick or a young talent and Curry gets hurt again.

They should have tried to tank the 2009-10 season. That was the perfect opportunity, but they had to get hot and get Nellie his record. Then they made the terrible trade for Lee instead. They had a perfect chance to rebuild at that point, but Riley had to impress the new owners with his bold move to get Lee so he could keep his job.

by Pippen on Jan 30, 2012 8:27 PM PST reply actions  

You are right Pippen, some teams get plenty of lottery picks but fail to execute.

but wouldn’t you rather at least have a chance to pick a good player rather than have no chance at all (by losing our pick).

If we keep our pick then the one we eventually lose will be less painful. It will eventually be a guaranteed second round pick if it gets pushed back. I would rather lose a second round pick than #7 or better.

The Clippers traded away their first round pick to the Cavs which ended up being the #1 pick. What if this is our lucky year in the lottery and our pick gets in the top 3… and Utah gets to make a top 3 selection.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

What if this is our lucky year in the lottery and our pick gets in the top 3… and Utah gets to make a top 3 selection.

If it is our lucky year in the lottery and our pick gets in the top 3 we still get to keep it. It’s not based on where we finish in the standings, it’s based on where we finish in the lottery.

If we our lucky enough to keep our pick this season I will be as happy as anyone. I just think it is a long-shot. It’s possible, but I’m not gonna get my hopes up and spend the entire season hoping the Warriors lose. There are 5 teams easily worse than the Warriors and another 5 that are arguably worse than them. I’m just gonna let the season play out and keep my fingers crossed during the lottery. All of the tank talk gets a little redundant after a while, especially when there is little indication the Warriors are remotely considering it.

by Pippen on Jan 31, 2012 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Brain fart.

Of course we get to keep the top 3, disregard that statement.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

never tank...

i hate even the thought of tanking!

by dez4o8 on Jan 31, 2012 1:21 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

but you enjoy the thought of endless mediocrity?

by AJC3317 on Jan 31, 2012 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Tank but do it productively. Do it with young players and not highly paid vets. Even if the Warriors only win 20 games, I’ll still watch happily if I’m seeing young players with high ceilings.

Yeah, right? I’d like to see Klay and Tyler play much more, and even Jenkins. Let’s give them the royal jelly!

Read my Advanced Stats Primer

J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.

(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.

by Evanz on Jan 31, 2012 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

This is what I'm saying.

I would never root for the Warriors to lose, I just think we should put ourselves in a position where we are even less likely to win. That may sound contradicting, but its not. Play the rookies – then I will still be rooting for us to win but we are essentially tanking by playing them.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

well, really its playing them now so that they will be up to speed in a couple years to compete for a championship

i dont think there is anything wrong in NOT being dilusional and thinking that we as constructed can fight for hte 8th spot with the intention of winning a championship.

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Jan 31, 2012 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

We're not bad enough to fail and not good enough to win.

Watching how bad the Warriors play, it’s hard to imagine there are other teams playing worse ball. We play Sac. today, the team that just keeps beating us to the lower draft spot. Head ache or not Cousins looks real good right now, then again we probably still would have drafted Udoh. The safe pick…lol

It’s really funny thinking that Beans actually got worse at FT% from last years big16% down to 0%. That is epic fail.

Harbaugh -- "We're not into answering questions"

by Critical Roach on Jan 31, 2012 10:30 AM PST reply actions  

not to tank (on purpose)

for the simple reason that I don’t see the new ownership going this route – so why bust yourself up wishing for something impossible?
Secondly, it would totally wreck our guys spirit of the FO made a talent-losing trade.

now, the one silver lining on all these recent losses is that we are moving closer to keeping our pick (perhaps just another key injury or two).

But I just don’t have it in me to actively root for our guys to lose.

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 31, 2012 10:48 AM PST reply actions  

There is a difference between tanking and rooting for your team to lose.

If you play all of your rookies big minutes at critical times then you are essentially tanking, but you can still root for them to win. The only difference is that you’ve put yourself in a situation that is more likely to result in more losses, but that doesn’t mean you have to root for them to lose.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

splitting hairs

whatever….you really think there is a functional difference between what I said and what you said?

“tanking” is essentially rooting for more losses. I’ve seen enough “damn, we need more losses” comments to know the difference. Yes, agreed, we should develop our young guys a bit more, but the starters seem to be doing a pretty adequate job at tanking as is..

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 31, 2012 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I just don’t have it in me to actively root for our guys to lose.

but you’d be fine with one of them getting hurt?

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 31, 2012 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

well, you know...nothing serious

but sure, Lee rolls an ankle, Steph gets the flu

again, I’m not rooting for it, but if it happens, I’ll still be able to make it through my morning coffee without dripping too many tears in it

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 31, 2012 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ll still be able to make it through my morning coffee without dripping too many tears in it

I’d be fine with seeing a tank outline every morning in the sports page with our strategy for losing each upcoming game.It would at least show a commitment by management to improving.

Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.

by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 31, 2012 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

With this team, how would we know that we weren't trying to tank?

That being said, yes, you’re cherry picking an example, and most examples don’t work out so well.

by Ronaldinho on Jan 31, 2012 10:59 AM PST reply actions  

Tank by giving rookies big minutes at critical times. I’m not saying to just plain give up and suck on purpose, or play with half a heart – I’m just saying to put us in a situation where we are less likely to win.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Dumb Question

But where exactly do we need to finish to hold onto our pick?

6 1st round draft picks, 2 Super Bowl Champions and counting

by Another Successful Tedford QB on Jan 31, 2012 12:11 PM PST reply actions  

Its protected if its in the top 7.

So if we finish in 7th worst place we keep our pick, unless a team jumps us in the lottery and pushes us back to 8th pick.

by G-State on Jan 31, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh I could easily see us finishing in 8th or 9th for a perfect DOOM scenario. But I vote for tanking…but do teams actually do that? Players are always trying to increase their personal value.

6 1st round draft picks, 2 Super Bowl Champions and counting

by Another Successful Tedford QB on Jan 31, 2012 12:30 PM PST up reply actions  

tanking = rebuilding

develop rookies (more playing time), shed salary, acquire draft picks / young talent.

the whole lottery system was developed to discourage teams from throwing games on purpose just to land the worst record, I don’t think any team says “let’s go out and lose some games”…it’s more of a side-effect from other roster moves

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 31, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

7th or better in the lottery

we could theoretically finish with the 10th worst record and jump into the top 3, in which case we’d keep the pick

Read my Advanced Stats Primer

J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.

(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.

by Evanz on Jan 31, 2012 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

In that case we will finish with one of the worst 3 records in the league but will end up with the #8 draft pick

6 1st round draft picks, 2 Super Bowl Champions and counting

by Another Successful Tedford QB on Jan 31, 2012 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

that would be impossible

The worst we could do in that case is finish #6, if 3 teams jump over us.

Read my Advanced Stats Primer

J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.

(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.

by Evanz on Jan 31, 2012 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

we're due a top 3 pick

make it happen Stern

Read my Advanced Stats Primer

J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.

(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.

by Evanz on Jan 31, 2012 2:22 PM PST reply actions  

He'll probably give it to the Hornets

so he can squeeze out a few more dollars when he puts them up for bid. We’re due for some good luck though.

by Pippen on Jan 31, 2012 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

J-RIDAH hinted

He hinted that a losing record at the trade deadline would mean a significant change in the roster. I believe that is a fact.

At that point I think the W’s try to move Curry and or Ellis for draft picks, and TRY to get someone to take Beidrins as part of the deal.

You will NEVER make te NBA finals with David Lee as your starting PF. I don’t get te attitude that, “We had to fire Coach Smart to signal a new attitude towards winning with defense.”

Then how did trading for David Lee help you build a team that will “win with defense?”

That’s what concerns me about this management group. They say the right things, but don’t do them consistently so far. It’s not what you SAY, it’s what you DO.

by Gainon10 on Jan 31, 2012 2:23 PM PST reply actions  

i would be so happy

if only we could trade away Lee, Ellis, and Beans for one or two 1st round picks. And tank the rest of the way this year. oh, and play the rookies alot to see what we have (full and proper eval on them)

by PIRATEWARRIOR on Jan 31, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

if only we could trade away Lee, Ellis, and Beans for one or two 1st round picks.

I really don’t get this.

Curry is really really good. He’s also very young. Trading him away for a first round pick is not going to help you get better unless you do it for a really good pick and get lucky.

The purpose of draft picks is to get good young players. Curry is a good young player. Trading him for a draft pick makes no sense at all.

by Ronaldinho on Jan 31, 2012 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Curry is really really good. He’s also very young.

That’s probably why he left him off his list.

if only we could trade away (David) Lee, (Monta) Ellis, and Beans for one or two 1st round picks.

Gainon10 did mention Curry, but to Pirate’s credit he did leave him off the list.

by olympicmike on Jan 31, 2012 4:43 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

The Warriors never have sufficient enough answers. And why should they when the truth makes them look even worse.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart

by kenntoe on Jan 31, 2012 5:49 PM PST up reply actions  

This post failed to mention the key reason to tank:

FAs aren’t coming. The draft is our only hope. If they can luck out and get a future star with the 7th pick, and convince Curry to sign another deal, this team has a chance of being good in the next five years. If not, it’s going to take even longer.

RIP Kyrylo Fesenko 2011-2011

by The Bimbo Coles Experience on Feb 1, 2012 6:29 PM PST reply actions  

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