stats question
by felix botticelli on Jan 30, 2012 7:57 PM PST
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PrintPeople throw around a lot of different stats, but obviously the ones that matter most are those that correlate to winning. Some of you guys are way into this stuff, so someone must know.
What are the things that have high correlation coefficients to winning? Yeah, I know, scoring more points. But seriously, its not an easy thing to do in a team sport, especially basketball where no one loses 100-12. Somebody on the crappy team is going to average 20/10 and still stink (no david lee jokes, please).
It may be immeasurable for an individual (or rather, the data doesn't correlate well) and only team stats are useful.
Is it turnover ratio? lowest opponent field goal percentage? FG% allowed times offensive rebounds divided by ????
thx
This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!
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This is a good question
I’m interested in hearing what some stats gurus have to say on the matter. I wonder if there is a few distinct statistical factors that go into make a winning team. Not always do the #1 ranked offense or defense come out on top..
We must go deeper!
Point differential has a very strong correlation to winning.
So stats that connect to that correlate to winning, as well. That’s why some of us focus on shooting efficiency rather than volume, for example.
While WP obviously has some issues (most importantly treating all players on the court as equally responsible for the team’s defense) you might want to read David Berri’s “The Wages of Wins” which digs into this question rather substantially.
Dean Oliver has addressed this in his book “Basketball on Paper.” He reference 4 factors that correlate most strongly with winning. Of them, effective FG% and effective FG% allowed seems to have the greatest influence on wins. Rebound rate, turnover rate and FT attempts affect wins to a noticeable, but lesser degree.
TS% incorporates FG% and FTs in one measure, in a sense covering two of the ‘four factors’.
Read my primer!
It’s in here:
http://thecity2.com/advanced-stats-primer/
J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.
(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.
read the whole thing
but specifically, here is the part about the “Four Factors”:
http://thecity2.com/advanced-stats-primer/#fourfactors
J-RIDAH: Its not 1 player in this draft better than Monta or Lee. Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu. Andre Drummond could be good but he is not impressive at this point at all besides his size. This draft is hella overated.
(JaVale) Mcgee is better than anybody in this draft.
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