Synergy Recap: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
by Evanz on Jan 5, 2012 4:54 AM PST
in Recaps
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PrintObviously, the big news coming out of last night's game was Stephen Curry re-re-re-injuring his movie glass ankle (you know, the fake glass in movies that breaks even easier than the real thing?). That is an unsettling issue, to say the least. Still, THIS IS A NO EXCUSES BASKETBALL TEAM. So, we must soldier on, and look deeeeep into the numbers.
Expected Synergy
|
|
GSW |
SAS |
||
|
PLAY |
% |
PPP |
% |
PPP |
|
ALL |
100 |
0.94 |
100 |
0.97 |
|
BALL |
14.1% |
0.83 |
12.2% |
0.84 |
|
CUT |
6.9% |
1.23 |
8.0% |
1.21 |
|
HAND |
2.4% |
0.96 |
2.3% |
0.98 |
|
ISO |
12.7% |
0.86 |
9.8% |
0.89 |
|
OTHER |
6.7% |
0.38 |
7.3% |
0.43 |
|
POST |
8.6% |
0.84 |
8.2% |
0.89 |
|
REB |
5.9% |
1.05 |
5.5% |
1.09 |
|
ROLL |
5.7% |
0.99 |
5.1% |
1.03 |
|
SCREEN |
4.8% |
0.86 |
5.2% |
0.97 |
|
SPOT |
18.4% |
1.05 |
21.6% |
1.04 |
|
TRANS |
11.9% |
1.15 |
12.9% |
1.17 |
One interesting thing to note here is that San Antonio uses ISO plays less than most teams. And Manu Ginobili was one of the most efficient ISO players last season (1.0 PPP ranked #18 in the league). Manu averaged about 3 ISO plays per game last season, so you might expect without him, the Spurs would be hurting. You might think that some other less efficient player might have to run a few more ISOs. Then you'd remember this team is coached by Pop and has Tim Duncan, and is probably smart enough to figure out how to score against the Warriors.
Actual Synergy
|
GSW@SAS |
GSW |
SAS |
||||
|
|
% |
# |
PPP |
% |
# |
PPP |
|
ALL |
100.0% |
98 |
0.96 |
100.0% |
102 |
0.99 |
|
BALL |
16.3% |
16 |
0.81 |
13.7% |
14 |
1.07 |
|
CUT |
8.2% |
8 |
0.75 |
5.9% |
6 |
1.00 |
|
HAND |
1.0% |
1 |
0.00 |
4.9% |
5 |
0.40 |
|
ISO |
16.3% |
16 |
0.94 |
4.9% |
5 |
0.80 |
|
OTHER |
2.0% |
2 |
0.00 |
3.9% |
4 |
1.00 |
|
POST |
8.2% |
8 |
1.00 |
10.8% |
11 |
0.64 |
|
REB |
4.1% |
4 |
1.15 |
4.9% |
5 |
0.80 |
|
ROLL |
9.2% |
9 |
1.11 |
5.9% |
6 |
1.67 |
|
SCREEN |
8.2% |
8 |
1.25 |
5.9% |
6 |
0.50 |
|
SPOT |
13.3% |
13 |
1.00 |
24.5% |
25 |
1.28 |
|
TRANS |
13.3% |
13 |
1.15 |
14.7% |
15 |
0.93 |
So, overall, both teams performed slightly better (0.02 PPP) than expected. The Warriors were sort of rolling offensively when Curry was in there, and I would imagine our Synergy dipped once he was hurt (wouldn't it be great to have "adjusted Synergy"?) The "good"' news if you can call it that is that at least we were more efficient offensively than in the previous games against the Suns and 76ers before that. However, given that the Spurs were without Manu Ginobili and still managed to score at a very efficient rate, our defense still has a ways to go to be elite (to say the least). Mark Jackson has his work cut out for him.
Oh, and about those ISO plays. Well, look at that. The Spurs just didn't run so many of them. That's the mark of a great team in my opinion. They were able to get much more efficient SPOT opportunities (24.5% at 1.28 PPP). That's what having Pop on the bench and Duncan on the floor do for you. Heck, I imagine Monta on the Spurs might be much more efficient. Hmm...
30 comments
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Comments
Put Curry on the shelf already
Let the guy get healed up a bit or it’s just going to get much worse down the stretch.
You know what would make a good story? Something about a clown who makes people happy, but inside he's real sad. Also, he has severe diarrhea.
More Minutes
I still think were a very good team. Its just that some of our players are playing limited minutes which shows you their lack of confidence and lack of how deep our bench is.
I still think were a very good team.
What is your scale?
by Evanz on Jan 5, 2012 9:02 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
better than the Raptors!
"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
However, given that the Spurs were without Manu Ginobili and still managed to score at a very efficient rate, our defense still has a ways to go to be elite
I’m satisfied with the results so far. Our defense made the spurs take some shots that they normally woulda missed and we we’re rolling along pretty good before Dre and Binky went down.
What’s the status for Dre, he seems to have gotten overlooked with the Binky injury occupying everyone’s mind? I thought he was playing some of the best ball of his career in the 1st half.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 5, 2012 9:23 AM PST reply actions
Yeah, in this game our post and transition defense was pretty good, actually. We have them too many open jump shots though (or they just got really lucky).
I heard Biedrins also sprained his ankle.
I think part of this
was it seemed like our guys were closing out really hard on set shooters, forcing them to take a dribble prior to shooting (I’m guessing this would show as an open jump shot then)
"You don't need to be an Adonis to be a good pro player...
…but Lee looks like he’s lived in zero gravity his whole life"
-the Bimbo Coles Experience
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Those would both be recorded as SPOT opportunities though, correct?
Either way, I think your observation is pertinent; the close-outs were aggressive, but not effective. I thought Dorell and Rush both gave too much help in the middle, requiring them to cover a lot of ground to get back out on shooters. This caused them to either be late (on Jefferson corner threes especially) or to run past their man as he stepped in for the open j.
It’s possible that their help in the middle contributed to the excellent POST defense numbers, although I like to think Kwame, Andris, and Udoh have more to do with that.
Formerly ffgolden.
hmmm
close-outs were aggressive, but not effective
might this go back to the assertion that you can’t really teach a poor defender to play decent defense?
even when our guys are making the right sorts of plays, they are still going about it wrong?
"The way I do it is I tell the athletic trainers the instant pain I feel and this is the worst it has been" - Steph Curry on his ankle 1/4/2012
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Well, I wouldn’t call Rush or DWright “poor” defenders — average, perhaps. I’m more arguing that they weren’t making the “right” play: the overly aggressive doubling and help D hurt their positioning relative to their men. If they stayed home more, they would have been in better position to defend without running out at shooters.
That said, the Spurs have killed teams with good spacing and spot-ups for years, so our poor defensive performance in that area is not unique. Having one of the best post players to ever play the game of basketball will do that for you.
Formerly ffgolden.
lol, agree, skeptic. Fact is, great teams have 2-3 guys that can come off the bench and do it.
The Spurs have that. We had it last year. Were lacking a coach that could get the right rotation formula. Reggie should have gotten some starting time, and a heck of a lot more bench time. He was a much better player than DW! Now, we are rushing Klay to start (though, clearly, not ready), rushing Curry to steal some wins (though, clearly, he needs one to two weeks to heal), and have nothing else on the bench (that can light up the scoreboard in a hurry in comparison to last year). We have a very weak team, weaker than last year, and, we could have had a playoff contender. What is really ironic, in my estimate, Minni J is showing thast he is a coach that could have maximized the Monta/Curry backcourt, delivered on a good rotation scheme, and, developed our rookies. Sad!
be patient, it's still super early in the season
this roster was an extremely marginal playoff contender at best. We still need at least one major move
in the meantime, just enjoy watching our boys lose with heart, get the occasional win, and hope for the best
"The way I do it is I tell the athletic trainers the instant pain I feel and this is the worst it has been" - Steph Curry on his ankle 1/4/2012
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
I feel ya, but I generally take the same approach to my Dubs fandom as I do to playing golf.
keep your expectations nice and low, and you are assured to have a good time. Start expecting actual good things though, and it gets stressful in a hurry
I mean, silver lining here, but Monta and Steph backcourt may actually be able to work. Even with DWright getting lit up, we were definitely in this game till Steph went down
because here’s the real problem
we dismantle the team every year
we don’t dismantle the team. We change the oil and get new rims, install cup holders, etc. We really should dismantle and start fresh, but I don’t think that’s in the cards (at least for a few years, it seems like the new ownership group is interested in banging their head against the good ol’ tinkering with our roster wall)
"The way I do it is I tell the athletic trainers the instant pain I feel and this is the worst it has been" - Steph Curry on his ankle 1/4/2012
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
Sooo close, last year! A coach and an experienced, quality, biggie away!
and now, this! No bench, no biggies, no bench, same 3 to carry the team (Lee, Curry, Ellis). Regression!
Ev, I must be critical of the photo chosen of Monta, at insert!
Poor guy carried the team all by his lonesome (again), kept us in it, scored 38, and we immortalize that effort by showing a shot of Parker blocking his shot! Not fair!
agreed!!
look at this guy!!
head up, eyes up!!
"The way I do it is I tell the athletic trainers the instant pain I feel and this is the worst it has been" - Steph Curry on his ankle 1/4/2012
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Evan, these are great as always. It might be interesting to chart the trends of each play time as we go forward in the season, to kind of gauge Jackson’s play calling and the team’s ability to adapt.
Formerly ffgolden.
I think
we played a pretty good game against the spurs and we could really have won the game if Curry could stay in the game. Anyhow, besides the starting 5, everyone is new on the team, so they need time to develop the chemistry. It sucks to see them lose but I have witness the improvement the team has made, from not playing defensive to willing to play some defense.
The W’s should put Curry on the shelf as this team is going nowhere fast.
I want to be optimistic but it’s difficult when the roster is worse than it was last year. The reality is that the Warriors will continue to flail, unless they can pull off one of the following:
(A) get lucky and draft a few superstar impact players (a la Durant and Westbrook)
(B) trade entire team for Kobe
© Hire Greg Anderson as team trainer
(D) Opposing team has to shoot at a moving basket
(E) Trade for Billy Owens
(F) Coax Don Nelson out of retirement
(G) Snort coke during timeouts
probably legal protection
due to pending court case
"The way I do it is I tell the athletic trainers the instant pain I feel and this is the worst it has been" - Steph Curry on his ankle 1/4/2012
by Duby Dub Dubs on Jan 5, 2012 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
Please put a steel cast on Curry's ankel
so it won’t happen again. Plus, this allows Curry to focus on passing and defense only, makes him a better PG.
Looking forward to it!
by ILoveWarriorsGirls on Jan 5, 2012 8:10 PM PST reply actions
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