FanPost

NBA Analytics Reveal Casual Fan Ignorance Over Great Bogut Trade

Hello there, Warriors fans. This is my second fan post on this forum; you might remember my first fan post last year which used NBA Analytics to explain why Monta Ellis and Acie Law were vastly overplayed last year and were arguably two of the worst players (for winning) in the entire league, while stats showed that Steph Curry, Reggie Williams, Jeremy Lin, and Udoh were net-positive, under-utilized players on the Warriors who deserved more playing time than what they were getting:

NBA Analytics Reveal Coaching Negligence (heavily responded)

Now, except for a handful of advanced teams, the NBA is still woefully behind on using Moneyball techniques, instead still largely relying on subjective bias from "experts" (including prejudice or confirmation bias in some cases). It's too late for the Warriors to do anything about Jeremy Lin or Reggie Williams who have since thrived on other teams. But, I did want to chime in today from an analytics perspective especially after the embarrassing and classless booing display last night by Warrior fans.

Joe Lacob is a good, passionate owner and the recent Warriors trade was not only ballsy, but it was also extremely intelligent and was in the best interests of the team. NBA analytics bear this out. I already outlined reasons previously in the Coaching Negligence post for why Monta Ellis was a flashy but losing player. But for Andrew Bogut, the Warriors just picked up one of the best, most undervalued winning players in the league.

Consider the fact that:

- Andrew Bogut put up a PER of 21 and win share of 7.5 in 2009, and a PER of 17 and win share of 5.4 in 2010.
- In 2010-2011, Bogut was 4th in the entire league in defensive rating (97.3)
- 5th in the league in defensive win shares (5.1)
- 4th in the league in block percentage (5.8)
- 1st in the league in blocks per game (2.6)
- His 2-year adjusted plus/minus was a +5.3
- In terms of conventional stats, Bogut is an elite rebounder, putting up nearly 11 a game the past few years which is astounding. Bogut is like a better-scoring, more-offensively-skilled version of Tyson Chandler.

Bogut's teams have a beneficial effect on both offense and defense when he is on the floor. For whatever reason (possibly because he's played in Milwaukee), Bogut has not been getting the all-defense and all-star recognition that he deserves. Not only is Andrew Bogut a winning, championship-caliber player with the right other pieces around him, but it speaks VOLUMES about ownership's commitment to winning that Lacob was willing to pull the trigger for undervalued-but-solid Bogut, knowing that Ellis was a popular, sexy-stats player and that it would be an unpopular move among the casual ignorant fan base.

On a totally different side note, Lacob is unfairly being criticized for letting Jeremy Lin go, when he was one of the few owners who wanted Lin in the first place based on his judgment. Lacob's mistake was listening to a below-average GM in Riley in thinking the Warriors had a chance in landing DeAndre Jordan. More criticism on discounting and devaluing Lin should fall on mediots like Matt Steinmetz, who even after Linsanity was still predicting that Lin was a marginal player at best who would soon find himself as a bench player, and who was still implying that Lin was getting minutes or recognition as a marketing gimmick. Stephen A Smith is another mediot "expert" along that vein, whose only value added is parroting others..

Thanks for reading.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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