Detailed Tank Predictions for the "Subpar 6"

Draw Tank!

I updated my Vegas ratings this morning. The Warriors are in pretty bad shape on the court, but good shape with respect to their chances of keeping that lottery pick. Read on for the nitty gritty.

Ratingsapr4_medium

Solid line represents full-season Vegas ratings. Dashed line represents ratings for games played since trade deadline.

Golden State Warriors

That's a tough schedule. Only 1 projected win from here on out.

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

54

Fri Apr 6 2012

@

Utah Jazz

-7.02

0

55

Sat Apr 7 2012

Denver Nuggets

-3.36

0

56

Mon Apr 9 2012

@

Denver Nuggets

-9.36

0

57

Wed Apr 11 2012

@

Portland Trail Blazers

-7.90

0

58

Thu Apr 12 2012

Dallas Mavericks

-3.93

0

59

Sat Apr 14 2012

@

Los Angeles Clippers

-9.57

0

60

Mon Apr 16 2012

San Antonio Spurs

-5.58

0

61

Wed Apr 18 2012

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.54

0

62

Fri Apr 20 2012

@

Dallas Mavericks

-9.93

0

63

Sat Apr 21 2012

@

Houston Rockets

-7.11

0

64

Sun Apr 22 2012

@

Minnesota Timberwolves

-6.32

0

65

Tue Apr 24 2012


New Orleans Hornets

3.67

1

66

Thu Apr 26 2012

San Antonio Spurs

-5.58

0

Cleveland Cavaliers

2 projected wins.

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

52

Wed Apr 4 2012

@

Milwaukee Bucks

-9.57

0

53

Fri Apr 6 2012

@

Toronto Raptors

-4.09

0

54

Sun Apr 8 2012

@

New Jersey Nets

-3.77

0

55

Tue Apr 10 2012


Charlotte Bobcats

6.17

1

56

Wed Apr 11 2012

Indiana Pacers

-4.02

0

57

Fri Apr 13 2012

@

Indiana Pacers

-10.02

0

58

Sat Apr 14 2012

@

Washington Wizards

-1.37

0

59

Sun Apr 15 2012

Orlando Magic

-5.92

0

60

Tue Apr 17 2012

@

Detroit Pistons

-5.74

0

61

Wed Apr 18 2012

Philadelphia 76ers

-5.62

0

62

Fri Apr 20 2012

New York Knicks

-4.02

0

63

Sun Apr 22 2012

@

San Antonio Spurs

-12.73

0

64

Mon Apr 23 2012

@

Memphis Grizzlies

-10.15

0

65

Wed Apr 25 2012


Washington Wizards

4.63

1

66

Thu Apr 26 2012

@

Chicago Bulls

-13.40

0

New Jersey Nets

2 projected wins.

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

56

Wed Apr 4 2012

@

Portland Trail Blazers

-8.28

0

57

Fri Apr 6 2012


Washington Wizards

5.40

1

58

Sun Apr 8 2012


Cleveland Cavaliers

3.77

1

59

Tue Apr 10 2012

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.85

0

60

Fri Apr 13 2012

@

Philadelphia 76ers

-10.85

0

61

Sat Apr 14 2012

Boston Celtics

-2.27

0

62

Mon Apr 16 2012

Miami Heat

-9.24

0

63

Wed Apr 18 2012

New York Knicks

-3.25

0

64

Sat Apr 21 2012

@

Milwaukee Bucks

-8.80

0

65

Mon Apr 23 2012

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.85

0

66

Thu Apr 26 2012

@

Toronto Raptors

-3.32

0

Toronto Raptors

2 projected wins (seeing a pattern here?).

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

55

Wed Apr 4 2012

@

Philadelphia 76ers

-10.53

0

56

Fri Apr 6 2012


Cleveland Cavaliers

4.09

1

57

Sun Apr 8 2012

@

Oklahoma City Thunder

-13.53

0

58

Mon Apr 9 2012

@

Indiana Pacers

-8.93

0

59

Wed Apr 11 2012

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.53

0

60

Fri Apr 13 2012

Boston Celtics

-1.95

0

61

Sun Apr 15 2012

@

Atlanta Hawks

-6.77

0

62

Mon Apr 16 2012

Atlanta Hawks

-0.77

0

63

Wed Apr 18 2012

@

Miami Heat

-14.92

0

64

Sun Apr 22 2012

@

Detroit Pistons

-4.65

0

65

Mon Apr 23 2012

@

Milwaukee Bucks

-8.48

0

66

Thu Apr 26 2012


New Jersey Nets

3.32

1

Sacramento Kings

Just 1 win.

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

55

Thu Apr 5 2012

Los Angeles Clippers

-2.70

0

56

Sat Apr 7 2012

@

Los Angeles Clippers

-8.70

0

57

Sun Apr 8 2012

Houston Rockets

-0.24

0

58

Tue Apr 10 2012

@

Dallas Mavericks

-9.06

0

59

Wed Apr 11 2012

@

New Orleans Hornets

-1.46

0

60

Fri Apr 13 2012

@

Oklahoma City Thunder

-12.60

0

61

Sun Apr 15 2012

Portland Trail Blazers

-1.03

0

62

Wed Apr 18 2012

San Antonio Spurs

-4.71

0

63

Fri Apr 20 2012

Oklahoma City Thunder

-6.60

0

64

Sun Apr 22 2012

@

Charlotte Bobcats

2.19

1

65

Tue Apr 24 2012

@

Oklahoma City Thunder

-12.60

0

66

Thu Apr 26 2012

Los Angeles Lakers

-4.67

0

Detroit Pistons

Detroit has the easiest remaining schedule and 5 predicted wins.

GAME

DATE

HOMESYM

OPP

SPREAD

WIN

54

Thu Apr 5 2012


Washington Wizards

7.37

1

55

Fri Apr 6 2012

@

Atlanta Hawks

-5.12

0

56

Sun Apr 8 2012

@

Miami Heat

-13.27

0

57

Mon Apr 9 2012

@

Orlando Magic

-9.18

0

58

Thu Apr 12 2012

@

Charlotte Bobcats

2.91

1

59

Fri Apr 13 2012

Milwaukee Bucks

-0.83

0

60

Sun Apr 15 2012

Chicago Bulls

-4.66

0

61

Tue Apr 17 2012


Cleveland Cavaliers

5.74

1

62

Wed Apr 18 2012

@

Atlanta Hawks

-5.12

0

63

Thu Apr 19 2012


Minnesota Timberwolves

1.27

1

64

Sun Apr 22 2012


Toronto Raptors

4.65

1

65

Mon Apr 23 2012

@

Indiana Pacers

-7.28

0

66

Thu Apr 26 2012

Philadelphia 76ers

-2.88

0

Final Tank Projections

As of right now, it looks likely that we will definitely pass Detroit. In the following table, CW = current wins and PW = projected wins based on the above results.

FINISH

TEAM

CW

PW

4

CLE

17

19

5

SAC

19

20

6

GSW

20

21

6

NJN

19

21

6

TOR

19

21

9

DET

20

25

In case of tied records, you may be interested to know how things are settled (perhaps, not what you thought):

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

source: Wikipedia

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