For the past several years, the NBA has done pre-season surveys of the incoming rookies and the GMs. I thought it would be fun to look at the questions that were posed to both and see which group had better judgement. Clearly, the men whose job it is to make judgements about talent and have mountains of data at their disposal should know better than a bunch of not-even-always-twenty-something rookies, right? Then again, "No one knows the rookies, though, like the rookies themselves." (link) Let's see. Join me after the jump.

I couldn't find the 2008-2009 or 2011-12 rookie surveys (maybe they skipped it), so I'll be looking at three seasons here.

2007-2008

Who will be the Rookie of the Year?

Both got this right, although way too many rookies voted for bad players. The GM survey took place after Oden got hurt, though, so we might discount this one a bit.

Which rookie will be the best in 5 years/Play in the most All-Star games?

(Slightly different questions asked to each group, but these were the most similar.)

GM's did somewhat better here. The GM who voted for Stuckey is obviously no longer working in the NBA.

Which player is the most athletic?

This one is puzzling. GM's got the better player at #2, but Nick Young *is* arguably more athletic. Just doesn't use it like KD does. Hmm.

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/biggest sleeper?

(Once again, similar but slightly different questions being asked.)

I guess I have to go with the GM's on this one, but they didn't really get it "right". Notice the absence of Joakim Noah, Thaddeus Young, Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo, Carl Landry, and Marc Gasol. I guess sleepers are really sleepers for a reason.

2009-2010

Who will win the Rookie of the Year?

Of course, Blake got injured so this one doesn't mean too much. Props to the rookies for having Harden on their radar. Both sides whiffed on Jonny Flynn.

Which rookie will have the best career/be the best in 5 years?

Looks like the GM's score a clear victory here. Jonny Flynn. #smh

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/sleeper success?

Ok, either the GM's killed it by picking Harden, or the rookies were like, "Uh, dude, Harden was picked 3rd. How is he a sleeper?" I'm kind of leaning toward the latter.

Which rookie is the most athletic?

Interesting once again that this question has significantly different responses. My guess is that the rookies look at this as "most athletic period" whereas the GM's read it "most athletic for their size/position". I can't really disagree with either side.

2010-2011

Which player will win Rookie of the Year?

Well, a few more GM's picked Blake Griffin, but this is pretty much a push.

Which rookie will have the best career/be best in 5 years?

Well, it looks like both sides might miss on this prediction, as Blake Griffin almost immediately vaulted to the top of the class. You never know what might happen down the road, though. I wonder if some smart GM (one of the 3 that voted for Griffin) could have made the steal of the decade before the season started. Clearly, he was undervalued at the time.

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/sleeper?

Rookies picked Jeremy Lin!!! And Landry Fields also was listed under "others receiving votes" on the rookie survey.

Ok, other than that, Luke Harangody? Devin Ebanks? Damion James? Neither side should be bragging here. How is Derrick Favors a "sleeper"? No GM voted for Fields.

Conclusion

Did the GM's perform obviously and significantly better than the rookies? Um, not really. I was expecting more. Oh, who am I fooling - no I didn't. I'm sure you didn't either.