Keys to the game
Win the turnover battle. The Rockets are the worst team in the NBA at taking care of the ball with over 16 turnovers per game (and 29th in TOV%) — even worse than our own turnover machine. And yet, in the first two matchups, Houston has only turned the ball over a total of 19 times, compared to our own 25. The Warriors have to take better care of the ball, cut down on the stupid giveaways that fuel Houston's fast break, and get their own hands in Houston's passing lanes to disrupt the flow of their offense.
Contest three point shooters. Broken record alert: the Warriors are 29th in 3PA allowed, and have in the past month slipped from 3rd to 7th in opponents' 3P%. Seventh sounds good, but I think we all know the trends are working against us. And the Rockets themselves are 7th in 3P%, and first in 3PA. They're going to get shots up from the arc — our guys have to run out and contest on every shot.
Crash the offensive boards. The transition game of Harden is terrifying, and I don't really trust our transition defense against his eurostep and the threes generated out of the break. I'd rather see the Warriors keep a man up (Barnes + Green) and get some offensive rebounds for extra opportunities, even if it means sacrificing a couple of easy transition buckets that would probably be converted anyway.
I'll leave that to you all in the comments!
Something to watch before the game