FanPost

Should the Warriors at least think about trading Iguodala and Bogut? [edited]

Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut deserve to be Warriors for at least two more years. Andre gave up his starting spot to Barnes for the majority of the season, then starred against LeBron and won Finals MVP. Bogut came to the Warriors injured, uncomplainingly went through rehab – only to battle more injuries, including one this season.

The Warriors should always be looking to add insurance against injury. It’s true that the Warriors top 3 players are essentially irreplaceable in a literal sense: it would be very difficult to find a Klay or Dray clone, and impossible to replace Curry. While injuries can happen to anyone at any time (sorry, Cavs), the Warrior’s bench allowed critical rest to starters to keep them going throughout a 100+-game season, not just healthy, but playing at a high energy-level without tiring as much.

Despite a great second unit, there were a few holes in the Warriors rotation this year. Livingston gave the bench solid defense and some slashing ability from a combo guard. But while the starters could convincingly play 4-out if they wanted to, the second unit sometimes lacked a consistent outside threat. In addition, the team could use a back-up Draymond-lite, or a true offensive stretch-four.

Why not just let Iggy and Bogut play out their contracts? By the time they’re both in decline, their contracts will come off the books, conveniently in time for a cap raise which could bring the total to over $105 million. Curry will (deservedly) get a new contract at over $25 (possibly $30) million. Klay will be on his $15 mil/year max, and Draymond will be in that ballpark as well. $55 mill isn’t too bad for the core of the team. By this time, Barnes and Ezeli will also be making around $10-12 mil each. Which makes for a $75-80 mil starting lineup. A max FA could be signed straight-up with $25 mil in cap space, if Barnes was traded. This is a solid future for the franchise, a testament to the Warriors front office acumen since Curry was drafted. It is very difficult to keep a championship core together for long.

If Barnes and Ezeli are the future of the center and small forward positions, shouldn’t they gain starting experience? It wouldn’t be too surprising if Ezeli did in fact start next year. This is no reason to trade Bogut, just as Barnes starting was no reason to trade Iggy this past season.

Should the Warriors sell high on Iggy and Bogut, while they are both useful players, instead of letting them go for nothing in two years?

"New salary cap projections sent out to NBA teams: 2015-16: 67.1 million, tax 81.6, 2016-17: 89 million, tax 108. 2017-18: 108, 127 tax

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 17, 2015" [couldn't link to the tweet for some reason, sorry]

Lee, Bogut, and Iggy will account for ~$39.2 million next year, almost as much as Curry, Klay, and Dray. Trading only Lee would get the Warriors under the tax line even with a maxed-out Dray, no major players could be added (expect for the mid-level, which luckily would be full, and as Livingston showed, this can make a difference). So in the short and long-terms, it would be ok financially to keep things as they are.

Who would want both Dray and Bogut, and have assets the Warriors might want? The team that stands out to me is Indiana. The Pacers have been missing a good shooting guard/wing since Lance Stephenson left, and Bogut would be better than Hibbert in the faster-pace game Indiana will be playing with Paul George back. The Pacers also might want to go all-in this year, as Kevin Love (and Kyrie Irving) and LeBron haven’t been able to play together in the playoffs for long, and might be a bit more vulnerable in 2016 than they would be as a more cohesive big three in a few years. In addition, David West is aging and in a contract year, and George Hill only has two years left on his deal.

The Pacers have a lottery pick this year, thanks to George’s horrific injury. They could use the pick, or even use it to trade up or down, but unlike the Warriors, they don’t have an extreme amount of depth. Picks are never a sure thing, and even an NBA-ready prospect (like Frank Kaminsky) is likely to struggle initially. And the 11th pick, while fairly high in a deep draft, probably isn’t going to produce a sure-fire starter. Even the best case scenario, Willy Cauley-Stein slipping to #11, would involve a player with very high upside, but injury concerns and very limited offense. A 2017 lottery-protected pick (probably in the mid-20’s) would have some effect on depth, but possibly not a huge amount, considering that it’s unclear how much talent would be available in that year’s crop.

What would a trade look like? It would be a series of two trades:

Trade 1:

Warriors receive: Ian Mahinmi ($4 mil expiring after next season), #11, #43

Pacers receive: Bogut, Iggy

76ers receive: Hibbert, filler (Shayne Whittington, Damjan Rudez), Indiana’s 2017 lottery-protected 1st-rounder

Trade 2:

Warriors trade Lee, #43 to Knicks for filler

So now the Warriors have traded their starting center and their super-sub. Normally this would be unacceptable. But the Dubs would only do this trade if they felt that: 1) Barnes and Ezeli will continue progressing, especially on defense 2) What they got in return (a low-lottery pick and nearly $40 mil in cap savings) was worth it.

The Warriors could try to get an athletic wing defender (Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - from Arizona, no less), a stretch big-man with a huge wing-span (Myles Turner), via #11 or trade down with the Celtics (#16 and #28). They would have the potential to plug almost all of the holes in their bench (shooter in the back-court – R.J Hunter or Rashad Vaughn; athletic four – Christian Wood, etc.) They could even try to package picks and reach the top 10 (unlikely, since depth would be point of the trade). The total cost of Mahinmi ($4 mil), #11 (1.96), #30 (.943) would be $7 mil, leaving a savings of $32.2 million (and ~$36 mil in 2016-2017). Even with Mo Buckets and Livingston and a maxed-out Draymond, their payroll would be under the salary cap. And the two draft picks could cheaply replace Barbosa or Speights if necessary.

[edit:]

If we didn't get Durant it would be a terrible trade. But if we wanted Durant, we'd want to sign him out-right to avoid a sign-and-trade, which would probably result in Iggy and Bogut (+ more - a Durant sign-and-trade would be Iggy+Bogut+$10 mil more in salary) going to OKC, not Indiana. In addition, OKC might want us to go into the tax to take back a bad contract. Getting into a bidding for a top-3 player would not be cheap. Alternatively, it would be difficult to offload Bogut and Iggy, since they would be older and possibly injury-prone. It would involve future picks, but after the Utah trade, it might be extremely difficult without literally trading picks out to 2021 .Other teams would know we were desperate, even if Durant came out and said he wanted to come to the Warriors.

In 2016-2017, the cap is ~$89 mil. Green (15) + Curry (12) + Klay (16) + Livingston (6)= $49. Barnes and Ezeli's QO's would cost $8+ mil total, bringing the total to $58 mil. The 2015 draft picks and our 2016 pick would add another $4mil (2+1+1), $62 in total. If we wanted Durant, we could then sign him out-right for $30+ mil if we declined Livingston's option or (not ideal) traded Barnes. After we sign Durant, match Ezeli and Barnes' offer sheets. Even if Festus and Harrison made $20 mil combined, the Warriors would still pay very little or no tax. (We could even sign-and-trade Festus and Harrison for yet another max player if we were greedy, but depth would be an issue.)

So the two options are:

Give up Iggy and Bogut now, possibly damaging a chance at a repeat (ugh), but gaining some bench depth. Get whoever we can in the draft at #11 and #30 ( I'd trust West and the F.O. to get the best player(s) possible). Sign Durant, extend RFA's Barnes and Ezeli. We might have to decline Livingston's option, but he could re-sign anyway, maybe even for a lower amount.

2015/2016 lineup: Curry, Klay, Barnes, Dray/Willie Cauley-Stein, Ezeli/WCS (+ either Rashad Vaughn or Christian Wood +2015 MLE player for depth)

OR

Trade #30 (maybe 2016 #1 as well) and Lee for cap space. Have a great shot at a repeat.

2015-2016 lineup: nearly the same as the 2015 Finals. (+ MLE player)

Scramble to dump salary next year, trying to get under the cap or sign-and-trade Durant.

All-in-all, a trade of anyone but Lee would probably boil down to whether the Warriors wanted to go after Durant. If they didn’t, trading two fan favorites and key cogs in a legendary title run would make financial sense, but not PR-sense. And if they struck out on Durant, it might not even make basketball sense. Lacob has a flair for the dramatic, and wasn’t afraid to trade Monta for an injured Bogut, despite what the fans thought. But I’m sure the front office agrees with Warriors fans who would like to keep the team mostly intact.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!