It's been a while, but I wrote an article about the entire J-Rich situation at the end of March after a bunch of reports about him leaving came about. I was pretty angry at that time:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_21397.shtml

The short answer is that the Warriors do not need to trade J-Rich strictly for financial reasons this summer. It's the 2008-09 season that is going to be a challenge with AB and Monta having their extensions kick in. The key, then, is finding some way to move Adonal Foyle's salary and if they can't do that, the Warriors will almost be forced to either:
a) move someone (J-Rich, Harrington, Jackson, Baron)
b) let AB or Monta go .. or both

Most of you know how hard it will be to move Foyle's contract so there isn't any reason to even begin speculating possibilities. But you guys did say the same thing about DunMurph and I repeatedly told people that there were some around the league that were willing to pay them (and the Pacers stepped in and did, even if it was to get rid of Jack).

If you do get rid of J-Rich, it has to be in a move that is one of the biggest no-nos for NBA GMs, although it does happen: a small for a big. Although its almost considered a cardinal sin, people do make this move. The Warriors absolutely would have to find a way to get an aggressive rebounding presence who can play defense and is versatile enough to play the 3/4. Good luck finding that, but that's what the team would need to justify any J-Rich move and sustain a high level of competitiveness.

About Baron's extension, I firmly stand against something like that. He won't be happy about it and it might influence his play and level of effort (which would be a good reason to possibly let him go), but with those shoddy knees and really only half a season of awesomeness from him, it is really hard to justify giving a guy upwards of $20-million per year.

With the Warriors relatively dire financial situation the team is in, I doubt they'll be giving him the extension he wants.

About going back to rebuilding, again, I've said that would be a huge mistake: http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_22298.shtml

It is my opinion that management will indeed try to build a contender and give this team at least one more try. I don't think Nellie is going to finish his contract out, which means this next season will be his last year and will be the Warriors last real chance to make a great run.

With the extra money that Cohan made with a playoff appearance (various revenue streams: tickets, merchandise, broadcast, sponsorship, etc.), hopefully he'll learn the lesson Donald Sterling did with the Clippers and shell out some dough to field a playoff team that could potentially put more money into his pocket.

The most likely trade that I see happening is moving Jasikevicius and one of the two second round picks for something. The Warriors are surely hoping they can get a big out of the deal and might have to throw in Patrick O'Bryant to see a deal get done. He's considered to still have potential and consensus around the league is that he could be a good fit in a different system.

I think that would be the package the Warriors are willing to move out with the hope of getting a big man that can rebound and defend (but is still mobile and not a complete offensive liability like Foyle).

This Draft should be one of the more suspenseful for Warrior fans as they sit and watch what the heck is going to unfold on that night. Jason Smith has really helped his stock in workouts so I don't think he'll still be available.

A lot of the guards are having really good workouts to, so Josh McRoberts and Tiago Splitter could fall, which would be great for the Warriors so they can snatch Splitter up.

I don't think they'll trade up for Yi mostly because I don't think they'll be willing to give up what those teams want in exchange for the pick. And other than Yi and Spencer Hawes, I don't think anyone is all that worth moving up for. I really like Crittenton's game and if the Warriors weren't set at their guard spots, I'd move up for him, too.

If Smith and Splitter are both gone, the Warriors could take (ugh) McRoberts or more likley they'll small forward as a contingency plan for Barnes if he leaves. If that's the case, the team should consider moving down if Splitter is gone, taking Dominic McGuire, Major Wingate, Sean Williams, or Reyshawn Terry with later picks (like in the early second round or late first). I'm not that sold on Williams or McGuire (but McGuire's growing on me) and I'd love to see the Warriors pick up Terry in the early second. I think he'll be a solid player.

In my draft prospects article (http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_22298.shtml), I mentioned taking Big Baby but that was really just as a risk. After thinking about it some more, I'm willing to say that the team should look into getting at least one SF just in case Barnes leaves.

So the draft strategy might be: 1 PF/C, 1 SF/PF, 1 SG/SF .. something like that. This is barring any trades to bring in players.

Well, I think we all know this team needs rebounders and word is they're looking into their various options to fulfill that need.

I think the team needs a veteran hand to be a backup point guard because I don't believe Monta can handle point guard duties yet.

Obviously, with Barnes' situation sort of up in the air, finding a rebounder and a perimeter defender is imperative. Ruben Patterson's name was kicked around last summer, supposedly, but I don't know what they'll do on that front.

An interesting thing that a Warriors suit told me earlier this year is that Mullin has learned to evaluate based on skills rather than physical metrics. He isn't enamored with how tall someone is or how long their arms are anymore - much like he was as a player, he focuses on results.

This came up in a conversation we were having about Jason Richardson and how he always works on something over the offseason and is like a sponge with instruction. The exec was telling me how Jason will watch tapes and work with specific coaches to build up a particular skill. This summer, he's working on passing and mid-range jumpshots, for example.

Obviously, the chief skill the team needs is rebounding and I think the fact that they're willing to take an undersized guy if he has shown the skill they want (read: Paul Millsap), they'll try to get him.

I think its an interesting way to look at things - often, these execs get excited because a guy is seven feet tall and has a huge wingspan, but the results might not be there completely. It happens a lot, guys getting drafted on potential .. stuff like that.

I feel like the Warriors are going about it the right way this offseason because they know their specific needs and will seek players that can fill them.

Already answered the draft question :)

If I were to handicap the Barnes situation, I think I would give it a 70% chance that he'll be back.

A lot of people I've spoken to that know these kinds of things insist that he loved the team, the system, the city .. everything except his salary. When Barnes was on Jim Rome's show, he said he wanted to come back and be a Warrior. When you put what I've heard with what Barnes said, things look good if the Warriors pay him $4-5 million per year.

The flip side of it is that he's been reportedly told by Nellie to chase the money and get his big payday. That's a bad sign on two fronts: 1) maybe the Warriors aren't planning to give him much and 2) it might be a subtle nudge in another direction.

There's always the chance that some team comes out of no where and offers a huge amount of money with promises like a spot in the starting five. That's something that isn't in the Warriors' control and should worry people that want Barnes back - if someone gives him the full MLE (5 years, $30-million), he'll be gone faster than a hot dog in front of Kobayashi. Will he get that kind of a deal? No one has indicated to me that he will, but there's 30 teams out there and it only takes 1 to be stupid.

1. Next season: 70/30 .. 08-09: 45/55 .. leaning towards him being moved if finances can't be put into order)
2. Next season: 80/20 .. 08-09: 5/95 .. Nellie's the kind of cat that doesn't like feeling under pressure and likes to be the underdog .. the Warriors will only have that role for one more year)
3. Although we all would like to see it happen, I'll say 15/85. Adonal has literally no upside and isn't attractive even to a team like the Spurs. That contract will haunt this team for a while. Plus, Adonal is a smart, patient guy who won't take a buyout unless he sees good opportunities elsewhere, which is why buyout talks stalled last year. That contract fuels Democracy Matters which is probably Adonal's focus, though he'd never admit it. Can he lose 25 pounds and become effective in Nellie's system?
4. 30/70 .. its possible, but moving up also means inching even closer to the tax threshold. If they move up for a SF, say bye to Barnes.
5. 50/50 .. I hate being ambiguous on this one, but it depends on what's left when they pick at 18. If their targets are gone, obviously the probability goes up a lot so they can take McGuire (who I'm told some in the organization already like) or one of the leapers (Wingate or  Sean Williams, who I can't get a read on what the organization thinks of him).
6. 85/15 .. the eternal KG question is the worst for guys like us because everyone has conflicting information. I can only go with what I'm told, and that is that KG doesn't want to be moved. Tremendously loyal and grateful for the Wolves taking him in the first place and understands how hard it is to build around him and his salary.
7. 90/10 .. unlike KG, Kobe keeps sounding off and whining about insider reports and whatever else he's annoyed with. That's fine, because for the next year he has no leverage whatsoever. If he wants to opt out in two seasons, he can go ahead and do so, but the ironic part is going to be that the Lakers could have the most capspace available that summer because both he and Odom would come off the books. If the Lakers keep him and he keeps being vocally antagonistic towards the franchise, eventually the fans here in LA will turn on him and it makes it that much easier for the Lakers to move their cash cow. My sources say the Lakers won't trade him and I believe them (unless they're absolutely floored with an offer, but I don't see anyone giving up that much).
8. 50/50 .. Artest's situation directly depends on who they hire as the coach. If its Reggie Theus or Brian Shaw he'll likely still be in Sactown. If its Larry Brown .. who knows? If its Scotty Brooks, he's probably gone. His situation is hard to get a read on, sorry.
9. 75/25 .. Word is Sarver is okay with biting the luxury tax bullet once if it means they are championship contender and Kerr values Marion very much, meaning whoever wants him would have to give up a LOT to get him. I think Boston might throw the farm in Phoenix's direction, but I doubt Phoenix bites. Kerr needs to start his tenure off safely because there's already a bunch of front office types who wonder if he was a good hire in the first place.
10. I'm not as familiar with the situation in Boston as I would like to be, so what I'm about to say could be considered an uneducation take (just being honest). I spoke to someone who was with Paul on Lottery Night and saw how pained he was that the Celtics slid so far down .. he had to like sit down and regain his composure and stuff like that. Obviously, its disappointing, but I don't know what he was thinking after that happened. He's been a good soldier so far and I don't necessarily see that changing.

Moving Jasikevicius would be the only way to improve the team in some way and Swift as a backup isn't that bad even though I personally don't like him very much.

Look, as I said earlier, the financial situation comes down to Foyle and if that can't be resolved, the options I listed above are likely (moving someone or not signing AB/Monta).

Also, if the team moves Jasikevicius this summer for two or three players (obviously with smaller salaries), the option of a buyout for those guys becomes likely, bringing the team farther away from the threshold only be a million or so, so it isn't a big deal. Unfortunately, this kind of finances-only transaction likely means no one of impact is coming back in.

I think the Warriors should consider moving MOnta, but ONLY if it means the other team takes Foyle, too. The reason I say this is because Monta's contract is so small, moving him with POB isn't going to get you a player of impact (low salary) .. and anyone who has that salary and is a stud (Josh Smith) is probably on their rookie contract and it will be hard to convince a team to get rid of him.

And yes, they should only make this move if they get someone VERY good. Like a starting PF or C.

I'm not ignoring this question, I'm just on the phones seeing what seems most likely. I've got some guys that are in the know re: Jasikevicius.

I'll just copy and paste his email:

I'd say the most likely team to land Jasi would be the Cavaliers, but I don't think there is much the Warriors would be interested in. The Cavs are going to push hard for a point guard and Jasikevicius would be an easy target.

If Toronto moves Calderon (I'm not sure why he's on the block, but he is), they'll need a 1 and their front office is very familiar with Jasi's work in Europe. Very familiar.

There are other teams that could be interested like Atlanta or Memphis, but I don't see that working out. Personally, he'd be a good fit with Milwaukee, but they're likely going to draft Conley and re-sign Mo Williams and Charlie Bell.

Last I heard, he's headed to Europe to see if a team will sign him.

That trade is pretty good - but Hughes' health should be a concern. The Cavs don't have a first or second rounder this year though and the Warriors wouldn't want to add another guaranteed contract anyway. And I doubt the Cavs trade one and a half starters for just one.

I think Andris is going to have a better future than Monta. :: shields himself ::

Biedrins' problems are mostly mental, and I believe he's going to learn to be less aggressive on defense and pick his sports better so he can stay in the game for longer stretches. His offensive game isn't bad and he only really does what he's comfortable with (hence the very high shooting percentage). His wingspan is good enough to be a better shotblock if he works on his timing, etc .. I really think we may be watching the next coming of a less athletic Marcus Camby (minus the outside jumper). He's got his head on straight, too, and is a great student. I really think he can get 2-3 blocks a game eventually.

Monta has a great future as well, but visions of Agent Zero 2.0 need to go away. Monta is efficient and plays hard, but he isn't going to be an All-Star unless he significantly improves his ball-handling and develops a mid-range game a la Chauncey Billups. As he is now, Monta looks like a Larry Hughes type (the Larry Hughes that was in Washington before going to Cleveland) if he gains some weight, which will be difficult for him because of his frame. I think numbers-wise, we'll see similar numbers to last season, maybe a point or two more. He can become more of a threat though, forcing teams to focus on him more eventually.

The Warriors like both of them and hope to hang onto them. Especially Beans. The Monta/JRich debate will go on for a long time though.

In my opinion, all three are second rounders.

Williams has the chance to be a late first round pick by a team that is willing to take a risk (Knicks, Suns, maybe Houston). If he isn't taken in the first, he'll be a very early second rounder. Very early.

Shakur is definitely going to be taken in the mid second round and is likely headed to one of the teams in the Pacific Northwest. They both liked him after his workouts.

Radenovic is a borderline second rounder and if he isn't drafted, he'll be an attractive UFA. If he wants a little more money, he will easily get a job in Europe.

Well, the thing about this question is .. do you want like a realistic person they should chase or a theoretical?

Gosh .. if the Warriors could get their hands on Gerald Wallace, that would be amazing. He'll want more than the MLE, but I don't see many teams having the kind of money that they need to give Wallace the $8+ he's looking for. If not, I wonder if he'd stay with the Bobcats and try the market next year when more teams have money.

Wallace would give the Warriors a guy that can rebound and defend 3 positions on the court. Obviously, it means Barnes is gone and Jackson is a sixth man, but that actually would be a crazy lineup.

I have spoken to a some of the roster, but I will respect what they have told me in confidence. Sorry, these guys can get sensitive and anything I say can jeopardize their negotiating power.

Thanks for taking questions.  Looking into your crystal ball, please name the 12 Warriors in uniform at the start of next season--and, if you feel so inclined, the three not in uniform but on the roster.

There was bound to be a formatting error at some point, sorry ffgolden.

The answer to your question:

No, I have not anything about the Hawks moving their pick and I have VERY reliable sources in that organization. They know they got lucky with the hand they've been dealt and will take full advantage of it.

The word on the Hawks is that they will keep both picks and take either Brandan Wright or Al Horford with the first one and they'll take Javaris Crittenton with the second. I don't know how else to put this .. THE HAWKS ABSOLUTELY LOVE JAVARIS CRITTENTON. I think that suffices. They're willing to take him above Acie Law because a sources say the Hawks see Critt as a "point star" rather than "point guard" .. kind of like Stephon Marbury.

The Grizzlies are in a weird predicament and are unlikely to move their pick because Pau Gasol isn't demanding a trade anymore now that they hired Coach Macaroni. He's very happy with the organization all of a sudden and doesn't seem like he is demanding for veteran help. If the Grizzlies find a team willing to take Swift from their hands for a big man, they'll listen to the possibility of swapping picks or something like that, but the team feels like they are in a position to draft an impact player.

That leaves the Celtics as the most likely to move their pick. The reasons are obvious - Pierce needs help now and the team is PLENTY young with Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo, and Gerald Green. Last I heard, the Celtics might consider moving Green and their pick with the atrocious salary of Wally to get a very good player from the Western Conference ... I'm just not at liberty to discuss it just yet, but I think you can figure it out.

I feel like the Warriors can get involved with the Hawks in some capacity because both teams have things the other wants, but I don't think the #3 pick will be involved.

My favorite subject about the draft!! Mobile big men!

These guys are a RARE breed .. throw Spencer Hawes into that mix, too. Athletic big men come aorund every so often .. last year it was Cedric Simmons and Joel Freeland, but this year there is arguably six or so.

Both Smith and Splitter can get up and down the court, can rebound, and can defend at or near the NBA level right now. I can see them as backups at both the 4 and 5 and if they develop their offensive games (and both need to probably add a few pounds), they can be very solid players through their careers. I don't see either one being an All-Star ever, but they can be players that definitely contribute to deep playoff runs.

Splitter isn't a sleeper at all. He's been in the draft before pulling out twice now, so people know his name by now. The reason his stock has slipped is because he hasn't developed more in the Euroleague over the past two seasons and he had an average Euroleague Final Four.

Personally, I think he's been playing inferior talent, so he has topped out in Europe. Playing against NBA players and in front of NBA coaches (in my opinion) will help him progress again.

Not a sleeper, though.

1. Jason Smith had a workout on Sunday and other teams say the Warriors should want him. I haven't had the chance to find out what the Warriors thought of him after Sunday, but a lot of people are saying that Smith is perfect for the Dubs.
2. There's a chance the Warriors take a non-PF, but if they do so, they'll likely take a talented swingman. I think Nick and Thaddeus Young will be taken, but both could theoretically be taken. Nick Young and Dominic McGuire will be in on Wednesday for workouts, so we'll know more by the end of the week.

J-Rich's value around the league has gone down since he's converted himself into an outside shooter. When he was more of a slasher, teams around the league absolutely loved him. One executive I spoke to last week about this subject told me that if J-Rich is healthy and in the East, he's easily an All-Star. If his hand heals over this summer, I'd hope he refocuses on his midrange game and getting to the basket and getting to the foul line. I'm a big fan of J-Rich because of his work ethic and great attitude - especially when you juxtapose that with the BS I'm having to report on a daily basis with Kobe here in LA.

Monta's value around the league is hit or miss. People I've spoken to say that he's got to be in the right system for success and others say he'll be successful wherever he goes. Unlike J-Rich, who people feel like can be successful in any system because of his athleticism, Monta might be more of system player. I don't necessarily agree because I feel like a scorer is a scorer is a scorer, but I can see their concerns because Monta is a little bit smaller and doesn't handle the ball as well as teams would like him to. The fact that he's so young makes him attractive, but an Eastern Conference GM I spoke to wondered out loud if Monta had topped out. There has to be a reason he said that, but I can't really finger it.

1. and 2) there are so many possibilities, I don't even know how to answer those questions.
3. The problem is that the Warriors don't really have the means of getting a veteran to help. They could trade POB and Jasikevicius for a vet big, but you won't get anyone that great (I proposed Lorenzen Wright, but some of you guys weren't too happy about that.

If you take a swingman in the draft (I think the ones that can help the Warriors will be gone), then the Warriors can use some of their MLE on a big man. That means bye bye Barnes, though.

The Dubs would have to trade into the top 10 and the only player they have that can help them get there is J-Rich. Now, the problem for the Warriors is they'd have to take in an equal salary amount (which is why some people liked the Boston deal so the Warriors could get Yi and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract).

What I think would be more interesting would be literally dumping J-Rich to a team under the cap that is in the top 10, which makes Milwaukee and Charlotte possibilities. Milwaukee has Redd, but J-Rich would fit in well with Charlotte and they can absorb his salary. Would you guys be interested in a deal for Sean May and the #8 pick for J-Rich? Then with #8 you could choose between Thornton or Yi and you'd still have the 18 to do whatever you want :)

1. Andris - he's still young, developing an offensive game, and cheap
   
2. J-Rich - teams know the Warriors are in a financial crunch and will make pitches for him
   
3. Monta - he's so young, so teams are still enticed, and he is still very cheap as well

Kobe isn't going to be traded. Sources I've spoken to say the Lakers want a borderline superstar along with three first round picks to even start a discussion. So, from Chicago, they'd want Deng and three picks or Deng and Gordon and a pick. I don't think they'd compromise their demands like they did with the Shaq trade.

You cannot do sign and trades until July 15. So although there is a S&T possibility with Gerald Wallace signing and J-Rich headed out, the #8 pick cannot be involved.

I mentioned earlier that Thaddeus Young and Nick Young could be good players for the Warriors. I don't think the Warriors would trade up for Thad, though .. word is the Wizards will take Thad, so it seems like Thad could be available if the Wiz change their mind.