Facing the Heat (Part 2)

Game # 60: Golden State @ Miami
GSW: (Road) 16-13     Miami (Home) 6-23
Tip off: 4:30 pm PST     Venue: American Airlines Arena, Miami
TV/RADIO: FSN Bay / KNBR 1050

Standing: Golden State Warriors - 3rd Pacific     8th West
                              Miami Heat - 5th Southeast     15th East

GAME WIN PROBABILITY: Golden State Warriors (37-23) - 68.4% (+ 4.9)
                                               Miami Heat (11-48) - 31.5%
                                              (Source: TeamRanking.com)

COMPARATIVE STATS (Raw numbers)

Golden State (60 games)                                        Miami Heat ( 58 games)

Offense/Ranking

PG: 110.5 (1st) - 6,632 pts made                          93.6 (29th) - 5,413 pts made
FG%: 46.1 (7th) - 2,466/5,345                               45.5 (15th) - 2.056/4,522
3pt%: 35.2 (16th) - 574/1,630                               34.6 (19th) - 290/839
FT%: 74.8 (18th) - 1,126/1,506                             72.3 (26th) - 1,011/1,408
RPG: 12.1 (8th) - 2,529 (O:728/D:1,801)             9.2 (29th) - 2,218 (O:535/D:1,683)
Pts/paint: 47.8 ppg - 2872 pts made               33.6 ppg - 1,919 pts made
Pt/TO: 20.0 ppg - 1,205 pts made                    15.9 ppg - 904 pts made
2nd C/pt: 14.1 ppg - 847 pts made                    10.8 ppg - 618 pts made
Fastbreak pts: 21.7 ppg - 1,305 pts made       10.2 ppg - 580 pts made
Ast/TO: 1.74                                                          1.41
TO/PG: 13.43                                                         14.98

Defense/Ranking

PG: 108.0 (30th) - 6,480 pts allowed                101.1 (21st) - 5,847 pts allowed
PG%: 46.3 (23rd) - 2.358/5,095                         47.0 (27th) - 2,157/4,595
3pt%: 36.9 (22nd) - 410/1,110                           36.6 (18th) - 392/1,063
FT%: 75.6 (15th) - 1,374/1,791                          76.2 (21st) - 1,141/1,501
RPG: 30.0 (18th) - 2,848 (O:807/D:2,041)       28.9 (29th) - 2,448 (O:617/D:1,831)
Pt/Paint: 44.1 ppg - 2,646 pts allowed           38.2 ppg - 2,180 pts allowed
Pt/TO: 16.0 ppg - 963 pts allowed                  17.2 ppg - 985 pts allowed
2nd C/pt: 16.6 ppg - 994 pts allowed              13.2 ppg - 756 pts allowed
Fastbreak pt: 13.4 ppg - 805 pts allowed      13.4 ppg - 766 pts allowed
Blk/PG: 4.73                                                         4.32
Stl/PG: 9.03                                                          7.32
TO/PG: 17.43                                                       14.87

Like I said, it is really hard to put a firm pulse for the Warriors as they win games in orthodox manner IMO. On their first Eastern road trip, after losing to Boston I expect them to lose in either Philly or Washington, yet they won both. It was the same thing with their second Eastern road trip. They lost at Detroit, won in Memphis and Minnesota. After a heart break loss at New Jersey, I expect them to lose heart and will also lose the back end of b2b to Cleveland, yet they won! Of late, they won at Minnesota, lost at Indiana then won in Chicago and Milwaukee. Coming off a loss at Charlotte last night was tough, especially for the players' pride, and with their previous known resiliency, I expect them to regroup and win games both in Miami and Orlando. The Warriors knows they have to stockpile wins or they are out of the playoff race in spite of their winning record. They know the magic number for them is 50 wins or lottery!

Whatever, win/loss column the Warriors are in after the Orlando game, they have only three days to assess their situation before they start their final 20 games. Perhaps the Don already mapped out their game plan, and whatever that maybe, there is a grueling and killer stretch over the horizon. Beginning March 21, the Warriors will face the Phoenix x2, Rockets, Lakers x 2, Trail Blazers, Denver x 2, Mavericks x 2, Spurs, and New Orleans. Of course, there are also sub .500 they have to meet; Memphis x 2, Kings x2, and Sacramento x 2.

The Warriors need to play complete games, must have to have a balance scoring especially from the bench and must sustain whatever momentum they've attain from the beginning of the game. Miami, although they have the worst record in the league, they are not push over. They have Wade and Marion and those two present a formidable duo that can create problems to the Warriors. On the other hand, Dorell Wright, one of their young starter will be out of the season for knee surgery. Should the Warriors dictate the game's pace and play up-tempo game over the Heat, their chances of winning over the Heat will be better. Miami lost 29 of their last 32 games and so I say, Warriors by 8.

Go Dubs!

See also: