NBA Analytics

Love's impact potentially less than expected


What is suggested by this set of projections is that although Kevin Love is a sizable upgrade from David Lee (+ 8 wins), the downgrade from Klay Thompson to Shaun Livingston and Kevin Martin is...

5-Man Lineups with the Highest and Lowest TS%


The starters 5 man linuep had the 7th best TS% of all 5 man lineups in the league, but replacing Iguodala with Barnes dropped them to bottom 10.

A Shooter's Guide to Passing


How the NBA's premiere shooter makes defenses pay for all the attention


Video: How Andre Iguodala defends LeBron James

Coach Nick breaks down how the league's top defenders, including Golden State Warriors wing Andre Iguodala, guard LeBron James. Not surprisingly, they all take a similar approach

Projecting the Warriors' Record Using RAPM & WARP

My admittedly flawed projection for next season (One of many reasons for optimism!): Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) is, by most statistical estimations, the best predictive "single...

The Ups and Downs of the 2012-13 Season Visualized

I got a very cool e-mail this week (I'll leave the name out to protect the innocent): I have a quick question for you. Why do I so rarely see time series in basketball? I work in climate...

With or without you, Jarrett Jack. Does it matter?


I wanted to follow up on Nate's article from yesterday by looking at some on/off ("with or without you") stats for Jarrett Jack. The idea is to see what are the "effects" (if you'll allow me the...

Shoot the Ball, Not the Messenger


Three simple ways to improve the Warriors offense, which may or may not work.

Takeaways from Sports Analytics Innovation Summit


Key takeaways from the Sports Analytics Innovation Conference held in San Francisco last week. Talks focused on the business side of sports, as well as the strategies for winning on the field,...

Warriors Body Doubles: Player Comparisons using Pre-Draft Measurements


I just did a massive data scraping from Draft Express, pulling 12 years worth of draft measurements, which I will use for analysis leading up to the big day. One of the things that we often seem to...


State of the Warriors Part I: Seriously Advanced Offensive Player Summaries for 2012


The crickets are getting restless. The draft lottery is still a few weeks away, and while many Warriors fans have probably taken the summer off already, hardcore GSoMers like you are in need of...

Updated Lottery Odds


I just got these from an article by Dan Feldman over at Basketball Prospectus. The chances of keeping this pick are not looking good at all. For details of the simulation, see here. <a...

A Ranking of Golden State Warriors Scorers in the 3-Point Era


Amidst all this talk of tanking lately, I thought it would be nice to mix it up a bit and throw some Warriors-related stats and history at you today. Recently at my blog, I've been working on a new...

Detailed Tank Predictions for the "Subpar 6"


I updated my Vegas ratings this morning. The Warriors are in pretty bad shape on the court, but good shape with respect to their chances of keeping that lottery pick. Read on for the nitty gritty. ...

Golden State Warriors Updated Tank Standings and Predictions


Updated tank predictions for the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State Warriors Four Factors Summary


I've been doing a lot of work at my blog recently on determining "adjusted" forms of a variety of different metrics. Most recently, I introduced a new metric that I call Adjusted Four Factor +/-...

How Should We Talk about Turnovers? Carefully.


How Should We Talk about Turnovers?

Thunder Present Warriors with Major Offensive Challenge: Synergy Scouting Report


It's clear that the Warriors are expected to have trouble stopping the Thunder's offense. On the other end, you might be surprised (shocked even?) to learn that the Warriors currently have the 6th...

Warriors Offense at the Almost-Quarter Season Mark: Synergy Visualization


A visual look at offensive efficiency for different play types being run by the Golden State Warriors.

The League Average Matters


Sometimes, I'll go for a few days without any good idea for a post. But then I'll read something that irks me. This morning, it's this piece from Rusty Simmons: With Wright struggling to find...

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns Synergy Recap: Steve Nash Performs Pretty Good at Pick and Roll


For the third game in a row, a member of the Warriors' "Big 3" (insert your own quip here) was missing. This time it was David Lee's turn to force us to wonder how much he's worth. Let's see if...

Synergy Recap: Philadelphia 76ers 107 @ Golden State Warriors 79 (12/31/11)


Synergy Recap: Philadelphia 76ers 107 @ Golden State Warriors 79 (12/31/11) now with Expected Synergy Stats

Synergy Recap: Warriors vs. Bulls


Just renewed my Synergy subscription so I'll be able to provide "real-time" game recaps this season for you guys. The idea is that we'll be able to see patterns emerging over the course of the...

EvanZ's 2012 NBA Win Projections


Win projections. Everybody's got them. Here are mine, constructed by averaging the latest multi-year RAPM ratings and my own ezPM ratings over the past two seasons with a little "massaging" and...

An Advanced Stats Primer for the NBA


To help ease NBA fans into the world of advanced stats, I put together this little primer on some of the more commonly used terms that you'll find on the interwebs.

Stat-O-Graphics: Free Agent Wings Total Impact


Everyone one knows the Warriors need quality bigs. One other important element that this team is short on (haha) are backup wings. Reggie Williams is a free agent. Klay Thompson is a rookie who has...

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